El Niño, La Niña, and world coffee price dynamics
Identifieur interne : 001558 ( Istex/Corpus ); précédent : 001557; suivant : 001559El Niño, La Niña, and world coffee price dynamics
Auteurs : David UbilavaSource :
- Agricultural Economics [ 0169-5150 ] ; 2012-01.
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Abstract
Coffee is produced in equatorial and subequatorial regions of the world, which are also most affected by El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). ENSO events have a tendency to amplify weather conditions such as droughts or excess precipitation in the affected regions, resulting in production shortage or excess supply, subsequently impacting agricultural commodity prices. In this research we assess effects of ENSO events on world coffee price dynamics using the monthly data between March 1989 and December 2010. We employ smooth transition autoregression framework to examine nonlinear dynamics of ENSO and coffee prices, and illustrate the results of this research using generalized impulse‐response functions. We find that ENSO events indeed have short‐term impacts on coffee prices. The research findings are of interest to coffee producers and intermediaries in the coffee markets as well as researchers in the fields of environmental and development economics.
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DOI: 10.1111/j.1574-0862.2011.00562.x
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ENSO events have a tendency to amplify weather conditions such as droughts or excess precipitation in the affected regions, resulting in production shortage or excess supply, subsequently impacting agricultural commodity prices. In this research we assess effects of ENSO events on world coffee price dynamics using the monthly data between March 1989 and December 2010. We employ smooth transition autoregression framework to examine nonlinear dynamics of ENSO and coffee prices, and illustrate the results of this research using generalized impulse‐response functions. We find that ENSO events indeed have short‐term impacts on coffee prices. 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Ubilava).</correspondenceTo><linkGroup><link type="toTypesetVersion" href="file:AGEC.AGEC562.pdf"></link></linkGroup></publicationMeta><contentMeta><unparsedEditorialHistory>Received 16 January 2011; received in revised form 2 May 2011; accepted 23 June 2011</unparsedEditorialHistory><countGroup><count type="figureTotal" number="5"></count><count type="tableTotal" number="2"></count><count type="formulaTotal" number="48"></count><count type="referenceTotal" number="39"></count><count type="linksCrossRef" number="80"></count></countGroup><titleGroup><title type="main">El Niño, La Niña, and world coffee price dynamics</title></titleGroup><creators><creator creatorRole="author" xml:id="cr1" affiliationRef="#a1" corresponding="yes"><personName><givenNames>David</givenNames><familyName>Ubilava</familyName></personName></creator></creators><affiliationGroup><affiliation xml:id="a1" countryCode="US"><unparsedAffiliation>Department of Agricultural Economics, Mississippi State University, P.O. 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ENSO events have a tendency to amplify weather conditions such as droughts or excess precipitation in the affected regions, resulting in production shortage or excess supply, subsequently impacting agricultural commodity prices. In this research we assess effects of ENSO events on world coffee price dynamics using the monthly data between March 1989 and December 2010. We employ smooth transition autoregression framework to examine nonlinear dynamics of ENSO and coffee prices, and illustrate the results of this research using generalized impulse‐response functions. We find that ENSO events indeed have short‐term impacts on coffee prices. 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ENSO events have a tendency to amplify weather conditions such as droughts or excess precipitation in the affected regions, resulting in production shortage or excess supply, subsequently impacting agricultural commodity prices. In this research we assess effects of ENSO events on world coffee price dynamics using the monthly data between March 1989 and December 2010. We employ smooth transition autoregression framework to examine nonlinear dynamics of ENSO and coffee prices, and illustrate the results of this research using generalized impulse‐response functions. We find that ENSO events indeed have short‐term impacts on coffee prices. The research findings are of interest to coffee producers and intermediaries in the coffee markets as well as researchers in the fields of environmental and development economics.</abstract><subject lang="en"><genre>keywords</genre><topic>C32</topic><topic>Q11</topic><topic>Q54</topic></subject><subject lang="en"><genre>keywords</genre><topic>El Niño Southern Oscillation</topic><topic>Coffee prices</topic><topic>Smooth transition autoregression</topic><topic>Generalized impulse‐response functions</topic></subject><relatedItem type="host"><titleInfo><title>Agricultural Economics</title></titleInfo><genre type="journal">journal</genre><note type="content"> Data Appendix Available Online A data appendix to replicate main results is available in the online version of this article. 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