TOXI-CITY: an agent-based model for exploring the effects of risk awareness and spatial configuration on the survival rate in the case of industrial accidents
Identifieur interne : 000328 ( Hal/Curation ); précédent : 000327; suivant : 000329TOXI-CITY: an agent-based model for exploring the effects of risk awareness and spatial configuration on the survival rate in the case of industrial accidents
Auteurs : Paul Salze [France] ; Elise Beck [France] ; Johnny Douvinet [France] ; Marion Amalric [France] ; Emmanuel Bonnet [France] ; Eric Daudé [France] ; Françoise Duraffour [France] ; David Sheeren [France]Source :
- Cybergeo : Revue européenne de géographie / European journal of geography [ 1278-3366 ] ; 2014.
English descriptors
Abstract
Industrial accidents are a major risk in many countries. Despite this observation, effective preventive action is not being developed and studies of the behaviours of vulnerable populations remain under-explored. According to safety instructions, residents must take shelter and remain indoors but other behaviours may be observed such as: running away from the affected area, panicking, or following people around. In order to assess the attitudes of people and the effects of local contingencies that could interfere with official advice in the event of a toxic cloud, a specific agent-based model called TOXI-CITY has been developed. The aim of this explorative model is to determine whether a minimum number of well-informed agents (i.e. those who follow the emergency protocol) can save a maximum number of uninformed and impressionable ones. Simulations indicate that the initial number of agents and the spatial configuration of the grid strongly influence final survival rates. A non-linear pattern emerged: survival rates increase when well-informed agent rates are low (below 30 %) while increasing the percentage of informed agents (from 70 %) seems to improve only slightly the chances of survival.
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75231 Paris Cedex 05</addrLine> <country key="FR"></country> </address> <ref type="url">http://www.univ-paris1.fr/</ref> </desc></org></tutelle></tutelles></hal:affiliation><country>France</country></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Sheeren, David" sort="Sheeren, David" uniqKey="Sheeren D" first="David" last="Sheeren">David Sheeren</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><hal:affiliation type="laboratory" xml:id="struct-37920" status="VALID"><orgName>Dynamiques Forestières dans l'Espace Rural</orgName><orgName type="acronym">DYNAFOR</orgName><desc><address><country key="FR"></country></address></desc><listRelation><relation active="#struct-5030" type="direct"></relation><relation name="UR1201" active="#struct-92114" type="direct"></relation><relation active="#struct-300374" type="direct"></relation></listRelation><tutelles><tutelle active="#struct-5030" type="direct"><org type="institution" xml:id="struct-5030" status="VALID"><orgName>Institut National Polytechnique [Toulouse]</orgName><orgName type="acronym">INP</orgName><desc><address><addrLine>6 allée Émile Monso - BP 34038 - 31029 Toulouse cedex 4</addrLine><country key="FR"></country></address><ref type="url">http://www.inp-toulouse.fr/</ref></desc></org></tutelle><tutelle name="UR1201" active="#struct-92114" type="direct"><org type="institution" xml:id="struct-92114" status="VALID"> <orgName>Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique</orgName> <orgName type="acronym">INRA</orgName> <desc> <address> <country key="FR"></country> </address> <ref type="url">http://www.inra.fr</ref> </desc></org></tutelle><tutelle active="#struct-300374" type="direct"><org type="institution" xml:id="struct-300374" status="VALID"><orgName>Ecole Nationale Supérieure Agronomique de Toulouse</orgName><desc><address><country key="FR"></country></address></desc></org></tutelle></tutelles></hal:affiliation><country>France</country></affiliation></author></analytic><series><title level="j">Cybergeo : Revue européenne de géographie / European journal of geography</title><idno type="ISSN">1278-3366</idno><imprint><date type="datePub">2014</date></imprint></series></biblStruct></sourceDesc></fileDesc><profileDesc><textClass><keywords scheme="mix" xml:lang="en"><term>agent-based model</term><term>simulation</term><term>spatial behaviour</term><term>technological risk</term><term>urban morphology</term></keywords></textClass></profileDesc></teiHeader><front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en">Industrial accidents are a major risk in many countries. Despite this observation, effective preventive action is not being developed and studies of the behaviours of vulnerable populations remain under-explored. According to safety instructions, residents must take shelter and remain indoors but other behaviours may be observed such as: running away from the affected area, panicking, or following people around. In order to assess the attitudes of people and the effects of local contingencies that could interfere with official advice in the event of a toxic cloud, a specific agent-based model called TOXI-CITY has been developed. The aim of this explorative model is to determine whether a minimum number of well-informed agents (i.e. those who follow the emergency protocol) can save a maximum number of uninformed and impressionable ones. Simulations indicate that the initial number of agents and the spatial configuration of the grid strongly influence final survival rates. A non-linear pattern emerged: survival rates increase when well-informed agent rates are low (below 30 %) while increasing the percentage of informed agents (from 70 %) seems to improve only slightly the chances of survival.</div></front></TEI><hal api="V3"><titleStmt><title xml:lang="en">TOXI-CITY: an agent-based model for exploring the effects of risk awareness and spatial configuration on the survival rate in the case of industrial accidents</title><title xml:lang="fr" type="sub">un modèle multi-agents pour explorer les effets de la conscience du risque et de la morphologie urbaine sur le taux de survie en cas d'accident industriel</title><author role="aut"><persName><forename type="first">Paul</forename><surname>Salze</surname></persName><email></email><idno type="halauthor">518856</idno><affiliation ref="#struct-55195"></affiliation></author><author role="aut"><persName><forename type="first">Elise</forename><surname>Beck</surname></persName><email>elise.beck@ujf-grenoble.fr</email><idno type="halauthor">296318</idno><affiliation ref="#struct-675"></affiliation></author><author role="aut"><persName><forename type="first">Johnny</forename><surname>DOUVINET</surname></persName><email></email><idno type="idhal">sekedoua-kouadio</idno><idno type="halauthor">959748</idno><affiliation ref="#struct-87217"></affiliation></author><author role="aut"><persName><forename type="first">Marion</forename><surname>Amalric</surname></persName><email></email><idno type="idhal">marion-amalric</idno><idno type="halauthor">357667</idno><affiliation ref="#struct-199947"></affiliation></author><author role="aut"><persName><forename type="first">Emmanuel</forename><surname>Bonnet</surname></persName><email></email><idno type="idhal">emmanuel-bonnet</idno><idno type="halauthor">411806</idno><idno type="IdRef">http://www.idref.fr/Ebonnet</idno><affiliation ref="#struct-97036"></affiliation></author><author role="aut"><persName><forename type="first">Eric</forename><surname>Daudé</surname></persName><email></email><idno type="idhal">eric-daude</idno><idno type="halauthor">232434</idno><idno type="ORCID">http://orcid.org/0000-0001-8656-3346</idno><affiliation ref="#struct-97036"></affiliation></author><author role="aut"><persName><forename type="first">Françoise</forename><surname>Duraffour</surname></persName><email></email><idno type="halauthor">518855</idno><affiliation ref="#struct-409849"></affiliation></author><author role="aut"><persName><forename type="first">David</forename><surname>Sheeren</surname></persName><email></email><idno type="halauthor">239100</idno><affiliation ref="#struct-37920"></affiliation></author><editor role="depositor"><persName><forename>Marion</forename><surname>Amalric</surname></persName><email>marion.amalric@univ-tours.fr</email></editor></titleStmt><editionStmt><edition n="v1" type="current"><date type="whenSubmitted">2014-06-26 15:25:19</date><date type="whenModified">2016-10-12 01:21:08</date><date type="whenReleased">2014-06-26 15:25:19</date><date type="whenProduced">2014</date></edition><respStmt><resp>contributor</resp><name key="110573"><persName><forename>Marion</forename><surname>Amalric</surname></persName><email>marion.amalric@univ-tours.fr</email></name></respStmt></editionStmt><publicationStmt><distributor>CCSD</distributor><idno type="halId">halshs-01015483</idno><idno type="halUri">https://halshs.archives-ouvertes.fr/halshs-01015483</idno><idno type="halBibtex">salze:halshs-01015483</idno><idno type="halRefHtml">Cybergeo : Revue européenne de géographie / European journal of geography, UMR 8504 Géographie-cités, 2014</idno><idno type="halRef">Cybergeo : Revue européenne de géographie / European journal of geography, UMR 8504 Géographie-cités, 2014</idno></publicationStmt><seriesStmt><idno type="stamp" n="EPHE">Ecole Pratique des Hautes Etudes</idno><idno type="stamp" n="UNIV-PARIS1">Université Panthéon-Sorbonne - Paris I</idno><idno type="stamp" n="UNIV-TOURS">Université François Rabelais</idno><idno type="stamp" n="SHS">Sciences de l'Homme et de la Société</idno><idno type="stamp" n="UNIV-PARIS7">Université Denis Diderot - Paris VII</idno><idno type="stamp" n="UNICE">Université Nice Sophia Antipolis</idno><idno type="stamp" n="CNRS">CNRS - Centre national de la recherche scientifique</idno><idno type="stamp" n="UNIV-GRENOBLE1" p="UGA">Université Joseph Fourier - Grenoble I</idno><idno type="stamp" n="UNIV-CAEN">Université de Caen</idno><idno type="stamp" n="UNIV-PMF_GRENOBLE" p="UGA">Université Pierre-Mendès-France - Grenoble II</idno><idno type="stamp" n="UNIV-LEHAVRE">Université du Havre</idno><idno type="stamp" n="UNIV-ROUEN">Université de Rouen</idno><idno type="stamp" n="ENSA-TOULOUSE">Ecole Nationale Supérieure Agronomique de Toulouse</idno><idno type="stamp" n="UGA">HAL Grenoble Alpes</idno><idno type="stamp" n="PACTE" p="UGA">Politiques publiques, ACtion politique, Territoires</idno><idno type="stamp" n="AO-GEOGRAPHIE">Archives ouvertes de la Géographie</idno><idno type="stamp" n="UNIV-STRASBG">Université de Strasbourg</idno><idno type="stamp" n="GIP-BE">GIP Bretagne Environnement</idno><idno type="stamp" n="CITERES-COST">Equipe Construction politique et sociale des territoires</idno><idno type="stamp" n="CITERES-IPA-PE">Equipe Ingéniérie du projet d'aménagement - Paysage et environnement</idno><idno type="stamp" n="UNIV-AMU">Aix Marseille Université</idno><idno type="stamp" n="UNIV-AVIGNON">Université d'Avignon</idno><idno type="stamp" n="INRA">INRA - Institut national de la recherche agronomique</idno><idno type="stamp" n="AGROPARISTECH">AgroParisTech</idno><idno type="stamp" n="SCPO-GRENOBLE" p="SHS">Sciences Po Grenoble</idno><idno type="stamp" n="PARISTECH">ParisTech</idno><idno type="stamp" n="COMUE-NORMANDIE">Normandie Université</idno><idno type="stamp" n="PRODIG-PUBLICATIONS">UMR PRODIG – Pôle de Recherche pour l’Organisation et la Diffusion de l’Information Géographique</idno><idno type="stamp" n="PSL">Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL) Research University</idno><idno type="stamp" n="USPC">Université Sorbonne Paris Cité</idno></seriesStmt><notesStmt><note type="audience" n="2">International</note><note type="popular" n="0">No</note><note type="peer" n="1">Yes</note></notesStmt><sourceDesc><biblStruct><analytic><title xml:lang="en">TOXI-CITY: an agent-based model for exploring the effects of risk awareness and spatial configuration on the survival rate in the case of industrial accidents</title><title xml:lang="fr" type="sub">un modèle multi-agents pour explorer les effets de la conscience du risque et de la morphologie urbaine sur le taux de survie en cas d'accident industriel</title><author role="aut"><persName><forename type="first">Paul</forename><surname>Salze</surname></persName><idno type="halAuthorId">518856</idno><affiliation ref="#struct-55195"></affiliation></author><author role="aut"><persName><forename type="first">Elise</forename><surname>Beck</surname></persName><email>elise.beck@ujf-grenoble.fr</email><idno type="halAuthorId">296318</idno><affiliation ref="#struct-675"></affiliation></author><author role="aut"><persName><forename type="first">Johnny</forename><surname>DOUVINET</surname></persName><idno type="idHal">sekedoua-kouadio</idno><idno type="halAuthorId">959748</idno><affiliation ref="#struct-87217"></affiliation></author><author role="aut"><persName><forename type="first">Marion</forename><surname>Amalric</surname></persName><idno type="idHal">marion-amalric</idno><idno type="halAuthorId">357667</idno><affiliation ref="#struct-199947"></affiliation></author><author role="aut"><persName><forename type="first">Emmanuel</forename><surname>Bonnet</surname></persName><idno type="idHal">emmanuel-bonnet</idno><idno type="halAuthorId">411806</idno><idno type="IdRef">http://www.idref.fr/Ebonnet</idno><affiliation ref="#struct-97036"></affiliation></author><author role="aut"><persName><forename type="first">Eric</forename><surname>Daudé</surname></persName><idno type="idHal">eric-daude</idno><idno type="halAuthorId">232434</idno><idno type="ORCID">http://orcid.org/0000-0001-8656-3346</idno><affiliation ref="#struct-97036"></affiliation></author><author role="aut"><persName><forename type="first">Françoise</forename><surname>Duraffour</surname></persName><idno type="halAuthorId">518855</idno><affiliation ref="#struct-409849"></affiliation></author><author role="aut"><persName><forename type="first">David</forename><surname>Sheeren</surname></persName><idno type="halAuthorId">239100</idno><affiliation ref="#struct-37920"></affiliation></author></analytic><monogr><idno type="halJournalId" status="VALID">612</idno><idno type="issn">1278-3366</idno><title level="j">Cybergeo : Revue européenne de géographie / European journal of geography</title><imprint><publisher>UMR 8504 Géographie-cités</publisher><biblScope unit="pp">-----</biblScope><date type="datePub">2014</date></imprint></monogr></biblStruct></sourceDesc><profileDesc><langUsage><language ident="en">English</language></langUsage><textClass><keywords scheme="author"><term xml:lang="en">technological risk</term><term xml:lang="en">agent-based model</term><term xml:lang="en">spatial behaviour</term><term xml:lang="en">simulation</term><term xml:lang="en">urban morphology</term></keywords><classCode scheme="halDomain" n="shs.geo">Humanities and Social Sciences/Geography</classCode><classCode scheme="halTypology" n="ART">Journal articles</classCode></textClass><abstract xml:lang="en">Industrial accidents are a major risk in many countries. Despite this observation, effective preventive action is not being developed and studies of the behaviours of vulnerable populations remain under-explored. According to safety instructions, residents must take shelter and remain indoors but other behaviours may be observed such as: running away from the affected area, panicking, or following people around. In order to assess the attitudes of people and the effects of local contingencies that could interfere with official advice in the event of a toxic cloud, a specific agent-based model called TOXI-CITY has been developed. The aim of this explorative model is to determine whether a minimum number of well-informed agents (i.e. those who follow the emergency protocol) can save a maximum number of uninformed and impressionable ones. Simulations indicate that the initial number of agents and the spatial configuration of the grid strongly influence final survival rates. A non-linear pattern emerged: survival rates increase when well-informed agent rates are low (below 30 %) while increasing the percentage of informed agents (from 70 %) seems to improve only slightly the chances of survival.</abstract><abstract xml:lang="fr">Les accidents industriels constituent un risque majeur dans de nombreuses parties du monde. Cependant, les actions de prévention efficaces manquent et les études sur les comportements des populations vulnérables sont peu développées. Selon les consignes de sécurité habituelles, en cas d'accident industriel les habitants doivent se confiner et rester à l'intérieur. Pourtant d'autres comportements peuvent être observés, comme par exemple s'enfuir pour quitter la zone affectée, céder à la panique, ou suivre une personne à proximité. Afin d'évaluer les comportements des individus et les effets de contingences locales qui pourraient entrer en contradiction avec les consignes officielles en cas d'accident toxique, un modèle multi-agents, TOXI-CITY, a été développé. L'objectif de ce modèle exploratoire est de déterminer si un nombre minimum d'agents bien informés (autrement dit ceux qui suivent les consignes de sécurité) peuvent sauver un maximum d'agents non informés ou influençables. Les simulations montrent que le nombre initial d'agents et la configuration spatiale de la grille influencent grandement les taux de survie. Un effet non-linéaire émerge : le taux de survie augmente lorsque la proportion d'agents bien informés est faible (en-dessous de 30 %) alors qu'un pourcentage croissant d'agents informés (au-dessus de 70 %) semble peu améliorer les chances de survie.</abstract><particDesc><org type="consortium">MAPS</org></particDesc></profileDesc></hal></record>Pour manipuler ce document sous Unix (Dilib)
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