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Concepts et modélisations de la diffusion géographique

Identifieur interne : 000455 ( Hal/Corpus ); précédent : 000454; suivant : 000456

Concepts et modélisations de la diffusion géographique

Auteurs : Patrice Langlois ; Eric Daudé

Source :

RBID : Hal:halshs-01062527

Descripteurs français

Abstract

The appearance of S-curve in the treatment of a space-time data is very often associated to a spatial diffusion. This systematic assimilation of the S-curve to the logistic model is misleading, it leads to an amalgam which masks the diversity of mathematical models to capture really different phenomena of diffusion. The aims of this paper is to show some examples of diffusion which are all expressed by a S-curve but which correspond in fact to different models. Three models are presented: - logistic model is the most usually used by geographers despite his independency from space. We compare here a spatialized and probabilistic version of this model with its analytical and deterministic form. - as opposed to the first one, the front diffusion model imposes a strong space constraint, the contact being prevalent in the diffusion. In this case, diffusion is not subjected to a global constraint but depends on the length and on the form of the front at any moment. - the third model is composite, it proceeds of the logistic growth forced by local constraints and of propagation of a front. These three models are studied in their analytical forms and are compared with their dynamic simulated. We show a continuity between these 3 models entering within the framework of a broader class of parameterized models. Moreover their combinations give an expansion of other models making it possible to apply to a great variety of problems.

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<abstract xml:lang="en">The appearance of S-curve in the treatment of a space-time data is very often associated to a spatial diffusion. This systematic assimilation of the S-curve to the logistic model is misleading, it leads to an amalgam which masks the diversity of mathematical models to capture really different phenomena of diffusion. The aims of this paper is to show some examples of diffusion which are all expressed by a S-curve but which correspond in fact to different models. Three models are presented: - logistic model is the most usually used by geographers despite his independency from space. We compare here a spatialized and probabilistic version of this model with its analytical and deterministic form. - as opposed to the first one, the front diffusion model imposes a strong space constraint, the contact being prevalent in the diffusion. In this case, diffusion is not subjected to a global constraint but depends on the length and on the form of the front at any moment. - the third model is composite, it proceeds of the logistic growth forced by local constraints and of propagation of a front. These three models are studied in their analytical forms and are compared with their dynamic simulated. We show a continuity between these 3 models entering within the framework of a broader class of parameterized models. Moreover their combinations give an expansion of other models making it possible to apply to a great variety of problems.</abstract>
<abstract xml:lang="fr">L'apparition d'une courbe en S dans l'exploitation de données spatio-temporelles est bien souvent associée par le géographe à une diffusion spatiale. L'assimilation presque systématique de la courbe en S au modèle logistique est trompeuse, elle conduit à un amalgame qui masque la diversité des modèles mathématiques permettant de modéliser des phénomènes de diffusion très différents. L'idée de cet article est de montrer quelques exemples de diffusion qui s'expriment tous par une courbe en S mais qui correspondent en fait à des modèles différents. Trois modèles sont exposés : - le modèle logistique est le plus couramment utilisé par les géographes alors qu'il est par construction indépendant de l'espace. Nous comparons ici une version spatialisée et probabiliste de ce modèle à sa forme analytique et déterministe. - à l'opposé du premier, le modèle de diffusion par front impose une forte contrainte spatiale, le contact étant prédominant dans la diffusion. Dans ce cas, la diffusion n'est pas soumise à une contrainte globale mais dépend de la longueur et de la forme du front à tout instant. - le troisième modèle est composite, il procède à la fois de la croissance logistique contrainte dans un voisinage et de la propagation d'un front. Ces trois modèles sont étudiés dans leurs formulations analytiques et comparés avec leurs dynamiques simulées. Nous montrons une continuité de passage entre ces 3 modèles entrant dans le cadre d'une classe plus large de modèles paramétrés. De plus la combinaison de leurs variantes produit un foisonnement d'autres modèles permettant de s'appliquer au mieux à une grande diversité de problématiques.</abstract>
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