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Growth, Trade, FDI and their impact on the Environment: The case of Central and Eastern European countries and the Commonwealth of Independent States

Identifieur interne : 000483 ( Hal/Checkpoint ); précédent : 000482; suivant : 000484

Growth, Trade, FDI and their impact on the Environment: The case of Central and Eastern European countries and the Commonwealth of Independent States

Auteurs : Natalia Zugravu [France]

Source :

RBID : Hal:tel-00450676

Descripteurs français

Abstract

It is often argued that the recent environmental performance of the countries in transition are less related to environmental policy reform than to the effects of the economic recession during the 1990's. Consequently, considering their recent economic growth and integration in the world economy, the increase in pollution would become inevitable, thus raising fears that these countries reach, or even exceed, the pollution levels of the late 1980's. This dissertation takes a new approach to analyzing the environmental consequences of the interactions between the reform of trade and investment policies, initiated with the transition process towards an open market economy, and the committed efforts for environmental protection in the transition countries. Using rigorous econometric techniques applied to a rich and original database on transition countries, we show that the transition towards the market economy associated with a fast integration in the world economy was relatively beneficial for the environment of these countries. The environmental progress observed in the countries in transition during the last decade of the 20th century was recorded as a result of a major industrial reorganization and, even more, due to a technical effect induced by a stricter environmental policy and some positive technological externalities of these countries' economic openness. Our results indicate that environmental progress is still realizable through environmental policy, provided that institutional quality of countries in transition converges to that of the European countries, for example. We show that the relationship between economic openness and environment is too complex to be summarized in a simple judgment - “good” or “bad”. In spite of the overall negative impact of trade openness on environment, found in this study for the case of transition countries, our results show that trade in environmental goods (EGs) can reduce air pollution. However, divergent effects are found for different EGs sub-categories and across pollutants (CO2, SO2). Hence, we highlight importance of making distinction between end-of-pipe products and clean technologies & products. Our study also underlines importance of considering indirect effects (in particular via income), which can be crucial in countries' decision to liberalize or not EGs' trade. A particular attention must be paid to the status of net importing country and the role of import tariffs' revenues. We also show that in order to increase trade in environmental goods, a first alternative to tariff reduction can be environmental policy harmonization across business partners. Finally, although the pollution haven hypothesis was validated for some countries in transition, fears for it are not justified overall. Indeed, according to our results, FDI in the manufacturing sectors seem to improve, through a pollution halo effect, the environmental quality in transition countries. We also show that countries with a too lenient environmental regulation would rather have interest to improve their environmental policy in order to attract FDI.

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<abstract xml:lang="fr">On affirme souvent que les performances environnementales récentes des pays en transition sont moins liées à la réforme de leur politique environnementale qu'aux effets de la récession économique des années 1990. Par conséquent, avec la reprise économique et l'intégration dans l'économie mondiale, l'augmentation des émissions polluantes deviendrait inévitable, faisant craindre que ces pays atteignent, voire dépassent, les niveaux de pollution de la fin des années 1980. Cette thèse donne un nouvel éclairage sur les conséquences environnementales dans la région des interactions, nées avec le processus de transition vers l'économie de marché, entre la réforme des politiques commerciales et celles d'investissement et les efforts engagés pour la protection de l'environnement. A l'aide de techniques économétriques rigoureuses appliquées à une base de données riche et originale sur les pays en transition, nous montrons que la transition vers l'économie de marché associée à une intégration rapide dans l'économie mondiale, a été relativement salutaire pour l'environnement de ces pays. Le progrès environnemental observé dans les pays en transition pendant la dernière décennie du 20ème siècle a pu être réalisé grâce à une restructuration industrielle majeure et plus encore, grâce à un effet technique induit par une amélioration de la politique environnementale et aux externalités technologiques positives de l'ouverture économique. Nous montrons que des progrès environnementaux sont encore réalisables à travers la politique environnementale, à condition que la qualité institutionnelle des pays en transition converge vers celle des pays européens, par exemple. Nous montrons que le lien entre ouverture économique et environnement est trop complexe pour être résumé dans un simple jugement - soit « bon » ou « mauvais ». Malgré l'impact négatif global de l'ouverture commerciale sur l'environnement, trouvé dans cette étude pour le cas des pays en transition, nous montrons que le commerce de biens environnementaux (BE) peut réduire la pollution de l'air. Cependant, des effets divergents sont trouvés pour différentes sous-catégories de BE et à travers les polluants (CO2, SO2). Par conséquent, nous mettons en évidence l'importance de faire distinction entre les produits en bout de chaîne et les technologies et produits propres. Notre étude souligne la nécessité de considérer les effets indirects du commerce de BE, en particulier ceux passant par le revenu, dans toute décision de libéralisation des échanges de ces biens. Une attention particulière doit être prêtée au statut d'importateur net et au rôle du revenu lié aux taxes à l'importation. Nos résultats empiriques indiquent également que pour commercialiser plus de BE, une première alternative à la réduction des taxes à l'importation peut être l'harmonisation de la politique environnementale à travers les partenaires commerciaux. Enfin, bien que l'hypothèse de havre de pollution soit validée dans certains pays en transition, sa crainte n'est globalement pas justifiée. En effet, d'après nos résultats, les IDE amélioreraient, à travers un effet de halo de pollution, la qualité environnementale de ces pays. Nous montrons aussi que les pays avec une réglementation trop laxiste auraient plutôt intérêt à améliorer leur politique environnementale afin d'attirer les IDE.</abstract>
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