Atmospheric Moisture Variability and Transmission of Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome in Changsha City, Mainland China, 1991–2010
Identifieur interne : 001302 ( Ncbi/Merge ); précédent : 001301; suivant : 001303Atmospheric Moisture Variability and Transmission of Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome in Changsha City, Mainland China, 1991–2010
Auteurs : Hong Xiao [République populaire de Chine] ; Huai-Yu Tian [République populaire de Chine] ; Bernard Cazelles [France] ; Xiu-Jun Li [République populaire de Chine] ; Shi-Lu Tong [Australie] ; Li-Dong Gao [République populaire de Chine] ; Jian-Xin Qin [République populaire de Chine] ; Xiao-Ling Lin [République populaire de Chine] ; Hai-Ning Liu [République populaire de Chine] ; Xi-Xing Zhang [République populaire de Chine]Source :
- PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases [ 1935-2727 ] ; 2013.
Abstract
The transmission of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) is influenced by environmental determinants. This study aimed to explore the association between atmospheric moisture variability and the transmission of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) for the period of 1991–2010 in Changsha, China.
Wavelet analyses were performed by using monthly reported time series data of HFRS cases to detect and quantify the periodicity of HFRS. A generalized linear model with a Poisson distribution and a log link model were used to quantify the relationship between climate and HFRS cases, highlighting the importance of moisture conditions. There was a continuous annual oscillation mode and multi-annual cycle around 3–4 years from 1994 to 1999. There was a significant association of HFRS incidence with moisture conditions and the Multivariate El Niño–Southern Oscillation Index (MEI). Particularly, atmospheric moisture has a significant effect on the propagation of HFRS; annual incidence of HFRS was positively correlated with annual precipitation and annual mean absolute humidity.
The final model had good accuracy in forecasting the occurrence of HFRS and moisture condition can be used in disease surveillance and risk management to provide early warning of potential epidemics of this disease.
Url:
DOI: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0002260
PubMed: 23755316
PubMed Central: 3674989
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1991–2010</title><author><name sortKey="Xiao, Hong" sort="Xiao, Hong" uniqKey="Xiao H" first="Hong" last="Xiao">Hong Xiao</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff1"><addr-line>College of Resources and Environment Science, Hunan Normal University, Changsha, China</addr-line></nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country><wicri:regionArea>College of Resources and Environment Science, Hunan Normal University, Changsha</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Changsha</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Tian, Huai Yu" sort="Tian, Huai Yu" uniqKey="Tian H" first="Huai-Yu" last="Tian">Huai-Yu Tian</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff1"><addr-line>College of Resources and Environment Science, Hunan Normal University, Changsha, China</addr-line></nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country><wicri:regionArea>College of Resources and Environment Science, Hunan Normal University, Changsha</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Changsha</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Cazelles, Bernard" sort="Cazelles, Bernard" uniqKey="Cazelles B" first="Bernard" last="Cazelles">Bernard Cazelles</name><affiliation wicri:level="3"><nlm:aff id="aff2"><addr-line>Ecologie & Evolution, UMR 7625, UPMC-ENS, Paris, France</addr-line></nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">France</country><wicri:regionArea>Ecologie & Evolution, UMR 7625, UPMC-ENS, Paris</wicri:regionArea><placeName><region type="region">Île-de-France</region><region type="old region">Île-de-France</region><settlement type="city">Paris</settlement></placeName></affiliation><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff3"><addr-line>UMMISCO UMI 209 IRD - UPMC, Bondy, France</addr-line></nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">France</country><wicri:regionArea>UMMISCO UMI 209 IRD - UPMC, Bondy</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Bondy</wicri:noRegion><wicri:noRegion>Bondy</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Li, Xiu Jun" sort="Li, Xiu Jun" uniqKey="Li X" first="Xiu-Jun" last="Li">Xiu-Jun Li</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff4"><addr-line>School of Public Health, Shandong University, Jinan, China</addr-line></nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country><wicri:regionArea>School of Public Health, Shandong University, Jinan</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Jinan</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Tong, Shi Lu" sort="Tong, Shi Lu" uniqKey="Tong S" first="Shi-Lu" last="Tong">Shi-Lu Tong</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff5"><addr-line>School of Public Health and Institute of Health and Biomedical Innovation, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia</addr-line></nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">Australie</country><wicri:regionArea>School of Public Health and Institute of Health and Biomedical Innovation, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, Queensland</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Queensland</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Gao, Li Dong" sort="Gao, Li Dong" uniqKey="Gao L" first="Li-Dong" last="Gao">Li-Dong Gao</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff6"><addr-line>Hunan Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Changsha, China</addr-line></nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country><wicri:regionArea>Hunan Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Changsha</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Changsha</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Qin, Jian Xin" sort="Qin, Jian Xin" uniqKey="Qin J" first="Jian-Xin" last="Qin">Jian-Xin Qin</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff1"><addr-line>College of Resources and Environment Science, Hunan Normal University, Changsha, China</addr-line></nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country><wicri:regionArea>College of Resources and Environment Science, Hunan Normal University, Changsha</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Changsha</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Lin, Xiao Ling" sort="Lin, Xiao Ling" uniqKey="Lin X" first="Xiao-Ling" last="Lin">Xiao-Ling Lin</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff1"><addr-line>College of Resources and Environment Science, Hunan Normal University, Changsha, China</addr-line></nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country><wicri:regionArea>College of Resources and Environment Science, Hunan Normal University, Changsha</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Changsha</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Liu, Hai Ning" sort="Liu, Hai Ning" uniqKey="Liu H" first="Hai-Ning" last="Liu">Hai-Ning Liu</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff1"><addr-line>College of Resources and Environment Science, Hunan Normal University, Changsha, China</addr-line></nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country><wicri:regionArea>College of Resources and Environment Science, Hunan Normal University, Changsha</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Changsha</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Zhang, Xi Xing" sort="Zhang, Xi Xing" uniqKey="Zhang X" first="Xi-Xing" last="Zhang">Xi-Xing Zhang</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff7"><addr-line>Changsha Municipal Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Changsha , China</addr-line></nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country><wicri:regionArea>Changsha Municipal Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Changsha </wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Changsha </wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author></analytic><series><title level="j">PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases</title><idno type="ISSN">1935-2727</idno><idno type="eISSN">1935-2735</idno><imprint><date when="2013">2013</date></imprint></series></biblStruct></sourceDesc></fileDesc><profileDesc><textClass></textClass></profileDesc></teiHeader><front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en"><sec><title>Background</title><p>The transmission of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) is influenced by environmental determinants. This study aimed to explore the association between atmospheric moisture variability and the transmission of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) for the period of 1991–2010 in Changsha, China.</p></sec><sec><title>Methods and Findings</title><p>Wavelet analyses were performed by using monthly reported time series data of HFRS cases to detect and quantify the periodicity of HFRS. A generalized linear model with a Poisson distribution and a log link model were used to quantify the relationship between climate and HFRS cases, highlighting the importance of moisture conditions. There was a continuous annual oscillation mode and multi-annual cycle around 3–4 years from 1994 to 1999. There was a significant association of HFRS incidence with moisture conditions and the Multivariate El Niño–Southern Oscillation Index (MEI). Particularly, atmospheric moisture has a significant effect on the propagation of HFRS; annual incidence of HFRS was positively correlated with annual precipitation and annual mean absolute humidity.</p></sec><sec><title>Conclusions</title><p>The final model had good accuracy in forecasting the occurrence of HFRS and moisture condition can be used in disease surveillance and risk management to provide early warning of potential epidemics of this disease.</p></sec></div></front><back><div1 type="bibliography"><listBibl><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Huang, X" uniqKey="Huang X">X Huang</name></author><author><name sortKey="Yin, H" uniqKey="Yin H">H Yin</name></author><author><name sortKey="Yan, L" uniqKey="Yan L">L Yan</name></author><author><name sortKey="Wang, X" uniqKey="Wang X">X Wang</name></author><author><name sortKey="Wang, S" uniqKey="Wang S">S Wang</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Yan, L" uniqKey="Yan L">L 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<front><journal-meta><journal-id journal-id-type="nlm-ta">PLoS Negl Trop Dis</journal-id><journal-id journal-id-type="iso-abbrev">PLoS Negl Trop Dis</journal-id><journal-id journal-id-type="publisher-id">plos</journal-id><journal-id journal-id-type="pmc">plosntds</journal-id><journal-title-group><journal-title>PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases</journal-title></journal-title-group><issn pub-type="ppub">1935-2727</issn><issn pub-type="epub">1935-2735</issn><publisher><publisher-name>Public Library of Science</publisher-name><publisher-loc>San Francisco, USA</publisher-loc></publisher></journal-meta><article-meta><article-id pub-id-type="pmid">23755316</article-id><article-id pub-id-type="pmc">3674989</article-id><article-id pub-id-type="publisher-id">PNTD-D-12-01537</article-id><article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.1371/journal.pntd.0002260</article-id><article-categories><subj-group subj-group-type="heading"><subject>Research Article</subject></subj-group><subj-group subj-group-type="Discipline-v2"><subject>Medicine</subject><subj-group><subject>Epidemiology</subject><subj-group><subject>Environmental Epidemiology</subject></subj-group></subj-group><subj-group><subject>Infectious Diseases</subject><subj-group><subject>Zoonoses</subject><subj-group><subject>Hantavirus</subject></subj-group></subj-group><subj-group><subject>Infectious Disease Modeling</subject></subj-group></subj-group><subj-group><subject>Public Health</subject><subj-group><subject>Environmental Health</subject></subj-group></subj-group></subj-group></article-categories><title-group><article-title>Atmospheric Moisture Variability and Transmission of Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome in Changsha City, Mainland China, 1991–2010</article-title><alt-title alt-title-type="running-head">Moisture Variability and HFRS</alt-title></title-group><contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author" equal-contrib="yes"><name><surname>Xiao</surname><given-names>Hong</given-names></name><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1"><sup>1</sup></xref><xref ref-type="corresp" rid="cor1"><sup>*</sup></xref></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author" equal-contrib="yes"><name><surname>Tian</surname><given-names>Huai-Yu</given-names></name><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1"><sup>1</sup></xref><xref ref-type="corresp" rid="cor1"><sup>*</sup></xref></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author" equal-contrib="yes"><name><surname>Cazelles</surname><given-names>Bernard</given-names></name><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2"><sup>2</sup></xref><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff3"><sup>3</sup></xref></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Li</surname><given-names>Xiu-Jun</given-names></name><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff4"><sup>4</sup></xref></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Tong</surname><given-names>Shi-Lu</given-names></name><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff5"><sup>5</sup></xref></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Gao</surname><given-names>Li-Dong</given-names></name><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff6"><sup>6</sup></xref></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Qin</surname><given-names>Jian-Xin</given-names></name><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1"><sup>1</sup></xref></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Lin</surname><given-names>Xiao-Ling</given-names></name><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1"><sup>1</sup></xref></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Liu</surname><given-names>Hai-Ning</given-names></name><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1"><sup>1</sup></xref></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Zhang</surname><given-names>Xi-Xing</given-names></name><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff7"><sup>7</sup></xref></contrib></contrib-group><aff id="aff1"><label>1</label><addr-line>College of Resources and Environment Science, Hunan Normal University, Changsha, China</addr-line></aff><aff id="aff2"><label>2</label><addr-line>Ecologie & Evolution, UMR 7625, UPMC-ENS, Paris, France</addr-line></aff><aff id="aff3"><label>3</label><addr-line>UMMISCO UMI 209 IRD - UPMC, Bondy, France</addr-line></aff><aff id="aff4"><label>4</label><addr-line>School of Public Health, Shandong University, Jinan, China</addr-line></aff><aff id="aff5"><label>5</label><addr-line>School of Public Health and Institute of Health and Biomedical Innovation, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia</addr-line></aff><aff id="aff6"><label>6</label><addr-line>Hunan Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Changsha, China</addr-line></aff><aff id="aff7"><label>7</label><addr-line>Changsha Municipal Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Changsha , China</addr-line></aff><contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="editor"><name><surname>Johansson</surname><given-names>Michael A.</given-names></name><role>Editor</role><xref ref-type="aff" rid="edit1"></xref></contrib></contrib-group><aff id="edit1"><addr-line>Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, United States of America</addr-line></aff><author-notes><corresp id="cor1">* E-mail: <email>xiaohong.hnnu@gmail.com</email> (HX); <email>tianhuaiyu@gmail.com</email> (HYT)</corresp><fn fn-type="COI-statement"><p>The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.</p></fn><fn fn-type="con"><p>Conceived and designed the experiments: HYT HX. Analyzed the data: LDG BC SLT. Contributed reagents/materials/analysis tools: XJL JXQ XLL HNL XXZ. Wrote the paper: HYT.</p></fn></author-notes><pub-date pub-type="collection"><month>6</month><year>2013</year></pub-date><pub-date pub-type="epub"><day>6</day><month>6</month><year>2013</year></pub-date><volume>7</volume><issue>6</issue><elocation-id>e2260</elocation-id><history><date date-type="received"><day>26</day><month>11</month><year>2012</year></date><date date-type="accepted"><day>26</day><month>4</month><year>2013</year></date></history><permissions><copyright-statement>© 2013 Xiao et al</copyright-statement><copyright-year>2013</copyright-year><copyright-holder>Xiao et al</copyright-holder><license xlink:href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"><license-p>This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are properly credited.</license-p></license></permissions><abstract><sec><title>Background</title><p>The transmission of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) is influenced by environmental determinants. This study aimed to explore the association between atmospheric moisture variability and the transmission of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) for the period of 1991–2010 in Changsha, China.</p></sec><sec><title>Methods and Findings</title><p>Wavelet analyses were performed by using monthly reported time series data of HFRS cases to detect and quantify the periodicity of HFRS. A generalized linear model with a Poisson distribution and a log link model were used to quantify the relationship between climate and HFRS cases, highlighting the importance of moisture conditions. There was a continuous annual oscillation mode and multi-annual cycle around 3–4 years from 1994 to 1999. There was a significant association of HFRS incidence with moisture conditions and the Multivariate El Niño–Southern Oscillation Index (MEI). Particularly, atmospheric moisture has a significant effect on the propagation of HFRS; annual incidence of HFRS was positively correlated with annual precipitation and annual mean absolute humidity.</p></sec><sec><title>Conclusions</title><p>The final model had good accuracy in forecasting the occurrence of HFRS and moisture condition can be used in disease surveillance and risk management to provide early warning of potential epidemics of this disease.</p></sec></abstract><abstract abstract-type="summary"><title>Author Summary</title><p>Hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS), a rodentborne disease caused by Hantaviruses, is characterized by fever, haemorrhage, headache, back pain, abdominal pain, and acute kidney injury. At present, it is endemic in all 31 provinces, autonomous regions, and metropolitan areas in mainland China where human cases account for 90% of the total global cases. Infection rates and population dynamics of hosts are thought to be influenced by climatic factors, especially humidity. Some studies have found that hantaviruses are limited in their spread to high-humidity environments for extended ex vivo stability. Here we provide the evidence that HFRS incidence was strongly associated with moisture conditions, including seasonal variation and annual situation, in Changsha, mainland China, 1991–2010. The results most likely indicate that moisture not only influences growth of food sources that determine rodent population size, thereby affecting the HFRS transmission, but also directly influences rodent activity and hantavirus infectivity. These findings offer insights in understanding possible causes of HFRS transmission, and can be used in disease surveillance and risk management to provide early warning of potential epidemics of this disease.</p></abstract><funding-group><funding-statement>This work was supported by the Key Discipline Construction Project in Hunan Province (2008001), Scientific Research Fund of the Hunan Provincial Education Department (11K037), Hunan Provincial Natural Science Foundation of China (11JJ3119), Science and Technology Planning Project of Hunan Province, China (2010SK3007), Key Subject Construction Project of Hunan Normal University (geographic information systems), Key Project of Hunan Provincial Education Department and National Natural Science Foundation of China. The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript.</funding-statement></funding-group><counts><page-count count="7"></page-count></counts></article-meta></front></pmc><affiliations><list><country><li>Australie</li><li>France</li><li>République populaire de Chine</li></country><region><li>Île-de-France</li></region><settlement><li>Paris</li></settlement></list><tree><country name="République populaire de Chine"><noRegion><name sortKey="Xiao, Hong" sort="Xiao, Hong" uniqKey="Xiao H" first="Hong" last="Xiao">Hong Xiao</name></noRegion><name sortKey="Gao, Li Dong" sort="Gao, Li Dong" uniqKey="Gao L" first="Li-Dong" last="Gao">Li-Dong Gao</name><name sortKey="Li, Xiu Jun" sort="Li, Xiu Jun" uniqKey="Li X" first="Xiu-Jun" last="Li">Xiu-Jun Li</name><name sortKey="Lin, Xiao Ling" sort="Lin, Xiao Ling" uniqKey="Lin X" first="Xiao-Ling" last="Lin">Xiao-Ling Lin</name><name sortKey="Liu, Hai Ning" sort="Liu, Hai Ning" uniqKey="Liu H" first="Hai-Ning" last="Liu">Hai-Ning Liu</name><name sortKey="Qin, Jian Xin" sort="Qin, Jian Xin" uniqKey="Qin J" first="Jian-Xin" last="Qin">Jian-Xin Qin</name><name sortKey="Tian, Huai Yu" sort="Tian, Huai Yu" uniqKey="Tian H" first="Huai-Yu" last="Tian">Huai-Yu Tian</name><name sortKey="Zhang, Xi Xing" sort="Zhang, Xi Xing" uniqKey="Zhang X" first="Xi-Xing" last="Zhang">Xi-Xing Zhang</name></country><country name="France"><region name="Île-de-France"><name sortKey="Cazelles, Bernard" sort="Cazelles, Bernard" uniqKey="Cazelles B" first="Bernard" last="Cazelles">Bernard Cazelles</name></region><name sortKey="Cazelles, Bernard" sort="Cazelles, Bernard" uniqKey="Cazelles B" first="Bernard" last="Cazelles">Bernard Cazelles</name></country><country name="Australie"><noRegion><name sortKey="Tong, Shi Lu" sort="Tong, Shi Lu" uniqKey="Tong S" first="Shi-Lu" last="Tong">Shi-Lu Tong</name></noRegion></country></tree></affiliations></record>Pour manipuler ce document sous Unix (Dilib)
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