Modelization of the Current and Future Habitat Suitability of Rhododendron ferrugineum Using Potential Snow Accumulation.
Identifieur interne : 000021 ( PubMed/Curation ); précédent : 000020; suivant : 000022Modelization of the Current and Future Habitat Suitability of Rhododendron ferrugineum Using Potential Snow Accumulation.
Auteurs : Benjamin Komac ; Pere Esteban [Espagne] ; Laura Trapero ; Roger CaritgSource :
- PloS one [ 1932-6203 ] ; 2016.
Abstract
Mountain areas are particularly sensitive to climate change. Species distribution models predict important extinctions in these areas whose magnitude will depend on a number of different factors. Here we examine the possible impact of climate change on the Rhododendron ferrugineum (alpenrose) niche in Andorra (Pyrenees). This species currently occupies 14.6 km2 of this country and relies on the protection afforded by snow cover in winter. We used high-resolution climatic data, potential snow accumulation and a combined forecasting method to obtain the realized niche model of this species. Subsequently, we used data from the high-resolution Scampei project climate change projection for the A2, A1B and B1 scenarios to model its future realized niche model. The modelization performed well when predicting the species's distribution, which improved when we considered the potential snow accumulation, the most important variable influencing its distribution. We thus obtained a potential extent of about 70.7 km2 or 15.1% of the country. We observed an elevation lag distribution between the current and potential distribution of the species, probably due to its slow colonization rate and the small-scale survey of seedlings. Under the three climatic scenarios, the realized niche model of the species will be reduced by 37.9-70.1 km2 by the end of the century and it will become confined to what are today screes and rocky hillside habitats. The particular effects of climate change on seedling establishment, as well as on the species' plasticity and sensitivity in the event of a reduction of the snow cover, could worsen these predictions.
DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0147324
PubMed: 26824847
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Benjamin Komac<affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Centre d'Estudis de la Neu i la Muntanya d'Andorra, Institut d'Estudis Andorrans (CENMA - IEA), Avinguda Rocafort 21-23, AD600 Sant Julià de Lòria, Principality of Andorra.</nlm:affiliation><wicri:noCountry code="subField">Principality of Andorra</wicri:noCountry></affiliation><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Centre d'Estudis de la Neu i la Muntanya d'Andorra, Institut d'Estudis Andorrans (CENMA - IEA), Avinguda Rocafort 21-23, AD600 Sant Julià de Lòria, Principality of Andorra.</nlm:affiliation><wicri:noCountry code="subField">Principality of Andorra</wicri:noCountry></affiliation><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Centre d'Estudis de la Neu i la Muntanya d'Andorra, Institut d'Estudis Andorrans (CENMA - IEA), Avinguda Rocafort 21-23, AD600 Sant Julià de Lòria, Principality of Andorra.</nlm:affiliation><wicri:noCountry code="subField">Principality of Andorra</wicri:noCountry></affiliation>Le document en format XML
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IEA), Avinguda Rocafort 21-23, AD600 Sant Julià de Lòria, Principality of Andorra.</nlm:affiliation><wicri:noCountry code="subField">Principality of Andorra</wicri:noCountry></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Esteban, Pere" sort="Esteban, Pere" uniqKey="Esteban P" first="Pere" last="Esteban">Pere Esteban</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>Departament de Geografia Física i Anàlisi Geogràfica Regional, Facultat de Geografia i Història, Universitat de Barcelona, Carrer de Montalegre 6-8, 08001 Barcelona, Spain.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">Espagne</country><wicri:regionArea>Departament de Geografia Física i Anàlisi Geogràfica Regional, Facultat de Geografia i Història, Universitat de Barcelona, Carrer de Montalegre 6-8, 08001 Barcelona</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Trapero, Laura" sort="Trapero, Laura" uniqKey="Trapero L" first="Laura" last="Trapero">Laura Trapero</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Centre d'Estudis de la Neu i la Muntanya d'Andorra, Institut d'Estudis Andorrans (CENMA - IEA), Avinguda Rocafort 21-23, AD600 Sant Julià de Lòria, Principality of Andorra.</nlm:affiliation><wicri:noCountry code="subField">Principality of Andorra</wicri:noCountry></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Caritg, Roger" sort="Caritg, Roger" uniqKey="Caritg R" first="Roger" last="Caritg">Roger Caritg</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Centre d'Estudis de la Neu i la Muntanya d'Andorra, Institut d'Estudis Andorrans (CENMA - IEA), Avinguda Rocafort 21-23, AD600 Sant Julià de Lòria, Principality of Andorra.</nlm:affiliation><wicri:noCountry code="subField">Principality of Andorra</wicri:noCountry></affiliation></author></analytic><series><title level="j">PloS one</title><idno type="eISSN">1932-6203</idno><imprint><date when="2016" type="published">2016</date></imprint></series></biblStruct></sourceDesc></fileDesc><profileDesc><textClass></textClass></profileDesc></teiHeader><front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en">Mountain areas are particularly sensitive to climate change. Species distribution models predict important extinctions in these areas whose magnitude will depend on a number of different factors. Here we examine the possible impact of climate change on the Rhododendron ferrugineum (alpenrose) niche in Andorra (Pyrenees). This species currently occupies 14.6 km2 of this country and relies on the protection afforded by snow cover in winter. We used high-resolution climatic data, potential snow accumulation and a combined forecasting method to obtain the realized niche model of this species. Subsequently, we used data from the high-resolution Scampei project climate change projection for the A2, A1B and B1 scenarios to model its future realized niche model. The modelization performed well when predicting the species's distribution, which improved when we considered the potential snow accumulation, the most important variable influencing its distribution. We thus obtained a potential extent of about 70.7 km2 or 15.1% of the country. We observed an elevation lag distribution between the current and potential distribution of the species, probably due to its slow colonization rate and the small-scale survey of seedlings. Under the three climatic scenarios, the realized niche model of the species will be reduced by 37.9-70.1 km2 by the end of the century and it will become confined to what are today screes and rocky hillside habitats. The particular effects of climate change on seedling establishment, as well as on the species' plasticity and sensitivity in the event of a reduction of the snow cover, could worsen these predictions.</div></front></TEI><pubmed><MedlineCitation Owner="NLM" Status="In-Data-Review"><PMID Version="1">26824847</PMID><DateCreated><Year>2016</Year><Month>01</Month><Day>30</Day></DateCreated><DateRevised><Year>2016</Year><Month>02</Month><Day>05</Day></DateRevised><Article PubModel="Electronic-eCollection"><Journal><ISSN IssnType="Electronic">1932-6203</ISSN><JournalIssue CitedMedium="Internet"><Volume>11</Volume><Issue>1</Issue><PubDate><Year>2016</Year></PubDate></JournalIssue><Title>PloS one</Title><ISOAbbreviation>PLoS ONE</ISOAbbreviation></Journal><ArticleTitle>Modelization of the Current and Future Habitat Suitability of Rhododendron ferrugineum Using Potential Snow Accumulation.</ArticleTitle><Pagination><MedlinePgn>e0147324</MedlinePgn></Pagination><ELocationID EIdType="doi" ValidYN="Y">10.1371/journal.pone.0147324</ELocationID><Abstract><AbstractText>Mountain areas are particularly sensitive to climate change. Species distribution models predict important extinctions in these areas whose magnitude will depend on a number of different factors. Here we examine the possible impact of climate change on the Rhododendron ferrugineum (alpenrose) niche in Andorra (Pyrenees). This species currently occupies 14.6 km2 of this country and relies on the protection afforded by snow cover in winter. We used high-resolution climatic data, potential snow accumulation and a combined forecasting method to obtain the realized niche model of this species. Subsequently, we used data from the high-resolution Scampei project climate change projection for the A2, A1B and B1 scenarios to model its future realized niche model. The modelization performed well when predicting the species's distribution, which improved when we considered the potential snow accumulation, the most important variable influencing its distribution. We thus obtained a potential extent of about 70.7 km2 or 15.1% of the country. We observed an elevation lag distribution between the current and potential distribution of the species, probably due to its slow colonization rate and the small-scale survey of seedlings. Under the three climatic scenarios, the realized niche model of the species will be reduced by 37.9-70.1 km2 by the end of the century and it will become confined to what are today screes and rocky hillside habitats. The particular effects of climate change on seedling establishment, as well as on the species' plasticity and sensitivity in the event of a reduction of the snow cover, could worsen these predictions.</AbstractText></Abstract><AuthorList CompleteYN="Y"><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Komac</LastName><ForeName>Benjamin</ForeName><Initials>B</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Centre d'Estudis de la Neu i la Muntanya d'Andorra, Institut d'Estudis Andorrans (CENMA - IEA), Avinguda Rocafort 21-23, AD600 Sant Julià de Lòria, Principality of Andorra.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Esteban</LastName><ForeName>Pere</ForeName><Initials>P</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Departament de Geografia Física i Anàlisi Geogràfica Regional, Facultat de Geografia i Història, Universitat de Barcelona, Carrer de Montalegre 6-8, 08001 Barcelona, Spain.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Trapero</LastName><ForeName>Laura</ForeName><Initials>L</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Centre d'Estudis de la Neu i la Muntanya d'Andorra, Institut d'Estudis Andorrans (CENMA - IEA), Avinguda Rocafort 21-23, AD600 Sant Julià de Lòria, Principality of Andorra.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Caritg</LastName><ForeName>Roger</ForeName><Initials>R</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Centre d'Estudis de la Neu i la Muntanya d'Andorra, Institut d'Estudis Andorrans (CENMA - IEA), Avinguda Rocafort 21-23, AD600 Sant Julià de Lòria, Principality of Andorra.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author></AuthorList><Language>eng</Language><PublicationTypeList><PublicationType UI="D016428">Journal Article</PublicationType></PublicationTypeList><ArticleDate DateType="Electronic"><Year>2016</Year><Month>01</Month><Day>29</Day></ArticleDate></Article><MedlineJournalInfo><Country>United States</Country><MedlineTA>PLoS One</MedlineTA><NlmUniqueID>101285081</NlmUniqueID><ISSNLinking>1932-6203</ISSNLinking></MedlineJournalInfo><CitationSubset>IM</CitationSubset><CommentsCorrectionsList><CommentsCorrections RefType="Cites"><RefSource>Mol Ecol. 2000 Aug;9(8):1099-111</RefSource><PMID Version="1">10964229</PMID></CommentsCorrections><CommentsCorrections RefType="Cites"><RefSource>Oecologia. 2010 Oct;164(2):321-30</RefSource><PMID Version="1">20454977</PMID></CommentsCorrections><CommentsCorrections RefType="Cites"><RefSource>J Clin Epidemiol. 1999 Sep;52(9):885-92</RefSource><PMID Version="1">10529029</PMID></CommentsCorrections><CommentsCorrections RefType="Cites"><RefSource>Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2005 Jun 7;102(23):8245-50</RefSource><PMID Version="1">15919825</PMID></CommentsCorrections><CommentsCorrections RefType="Cites"><RefSource>Science. 2006 Jul 7;313(5783):58-61</RefSource><PMID Version="1">16825561</PMID></CommentsCorrections><CommentsCorrections RefType="Cites"><RefSource>Trends Ecol Evol. 2007 Jan;22(1):42-7</RefSource><PMID Version="1">17011070</PMID></CommentsCorrections><CommentsCorrections RefType="Cites"><RefSource>Am Nat. 2007 Jul;170(1):128-42</RefSource><PMID Version="1">17853997</PMID></CommentsCorrections><CommentsCorrections RefType="Cites"><RefSource>Trends Ecol Evol. 2007 Nov;22(11):569-74</RefSource><PMID Version="1">17988759</PMID></CommentsCorrections><CommentsCorrections RefType="Cites"><RefSource>Trends Ecol Evol. 2008 Mar;23(3):149-58</RefSource><PMID Version="1">18289716</PMID></CommentsCorrections><CommentsCorrections RefType="Cites"><RefSource>Nature. 2008 May 15;453(7193):353-7</RefSource><PMID Version="1">18480817</PMID></CommentsCorrections><CommentsCorrections RefType="Cites"><RefSource>Psychol Bull. 1968 Oct;70(4):213-20</RefSource><PMID Version="1">19673146</PMID></CommentsCorrections><CommentsCorrections RefType="Cites"><RefSource>Planta Med. 2010 Oct;76(14):1550-7</RefSource><PMID Version="1">20309793</PMID></CommentsCorrections><CommentsCorrections RefType="Cites"><RefSource>Mol Ecol. 2012 May;21(10):2354-68</RefSource><PMID Version="1">22512785</PMID></CommentsCorrections><CommentsCorrections RefType="Cites"><RefSource>Nature. 2004 Jan 8;427(6970):145-8</RefSource><PMID Version="1">14712274</PMID></CommentsCorrections><CommentsCorrections RefType="Cites"><RefSource>ScientificWorldJournal. 2012;2012:612965</RefSource><PMID Version="1">22593702</PMID></CommentsCorrections></CommentsCorrectionsList><OtherID Source="NLM">PMC4732742</OtherID></MedlineCitation><PubmedData><History><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="ecollection"><Year>2016</Year><Month></Month><Day></Day></PubMedPubDate><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="received"><Year>2015</Year><Month>4</Month><Day>1</Day></PubMedPubDate><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="accepted"><Year>2015</Year><Month>12</Month><Day>31</Day></PubMedPubDate><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="epublish"><Year>2016</Year><Month>1</Month><Day>29</Day></PubMedPubDate><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="entrez"><Year>2016</Year><Month>1</Month><Day>30</Day><Hour>6</Hour><Minute>0</Minute></PubMedPubDate><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="pubmed"><Year>2016</Year><Month>1</Month><Day>30</Day><Hour>6</Hour><Minute>0</Minute></PubMedPubDate><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="medline"><Year>2016</Year><Month>1</Month><Day>30</Day><Hour>6</Hour><Minute>0</Minute></PubMedPubDate></History><PublicationStatus>epublish</PublicationStatus><ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="doi">10.1371/journal.pone.0147324</ArticleId><ArticleId IdType="pii">PONE-D-15-13895</ArticleId><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">26824847</ArticleId><ArticleId IdType="pmc">PMC4732742</ArticleId></ArticleIdList></PubmedData></pubmed></record>Pour manipuler ce document sous Unix (Dilib)
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