Holocene book reviews : The implications of climate and sea-level change for Bangladesh R.A. Warrick and O.K. Ahmad, The Netherlands: Kluwer Academic Pub lishers, 1996, 416 pp., £110, hardback. ISBN 0 7923 4001 9
Identifieur interne : 000764 ( Istex/Corpus ); précédent : 000763; suivant : 000765Holocene book reviews : The implications of climate and sea-level change for Bangladesh R.A. Warrick and O.K. Ahmad, The Netherlands: Kluwer Academic Pub lishers, 1996, 416 pp., £110, hardback. ISBN 0 7923 4001 9
Auteurs : Colin ThorneSource :
- The Holocene [ 0959-6836 ] ; 1997-06.
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DOI: 10.1177/095968369700700223
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ISBN 0 7923 4001 9</title><author xml:id="author-1"><persName><forename type="first">Colin</forename><surname>Thorne</surname></persName><affiliation>(University of Nottingham</affiliation></author></analytic><monogr><title level="j">The Holocene</title><idno type="pISSN">0959-6836</idno><idno type="eISSN">1477-0911</idno><imprint><publisher>Sage Publications</publisher><pubPlace>Sage CA: Thousand Oaks, CA</pubPlace><date type="published" when="1997-06"></date><biblScope unit="volume">7</biblScope><biblScope unit="issue">2</biblScope><biblScope unit="page" from="251">251</biblScope><biblScope unit="page" to="252">252</biblScope></imprint></monogr><idno type="istex">DD5CDFF656FEC3E89ADB31E9D2D9ADEC7AAC5518</idno><idno type="DOI">10.1177/095968369700700223</idno><idno type="ArticleID">10.1177_095968369700700223</idno></biblStruct></sourceDesc></fileDesc><profileDesc><creation><date>1997</date></creation><langUsage><language ident="en">en</language></langUsage></profileDesc><revisionDesc><change when="1997-06">Published</change></revisionDesc></teiHeader></istex:fulltextTEI><json:item><extension>txt</extension><original>false</original><mimetype>text/plain</mimetype><uri>https://api.istex.fr/document/DD5CDFF656FEC3E89ADB31E9D2D9ADEC7AAC5518/fulltext/txt</uri></json:item></fulltext><metadata><istex:metadataXml wicri:clean="corpus sage not found" wicri:toSee="no header"><istex:xmlDeclaration>version="1.0" encoding="UTF-8"</istex:xmlDeclaration><istex:docType PUBLIC="-//NLM//DTD Journal Publishing DTD v2.3 20070202//EN" URI="journalpublishing.dtd" name="istex:docType"></istex:docType><istex:document><article article-type="review-article" dtd-version="2.3" xml:lang="EN"><front><journal-meta><journal-id journal-id-type="hwp">sphol</journal-id><journal-id journal-id-type="publisher-id">HOL</journal-id><journal-title>The Holocene</journal-title><issn pub-type="ppub">0959-6836</issn><publisher><publisher-name>Sage Publications</publisher-name><publisher-loc>Sage CA: Thousand Oaks, CA</publisher-loc></publisher></journal-meta><article-meta><article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.1177/095968369700700223</article-id><article-id pub-id-type="publisher-id">10.1177_095968369700700223</article-id><article-categories><subj-group subj-group-type="heading"><subject>Articles</subject></subj-group></article-categories><title-group><article-title>Holocene book reviews : The implications of climate and sea-level change for Bangladesh R.A. Warrick and O.K. Ahmad, The Netherlands: Kluwer Academic Pub lishers, 1996, 416 pp., £110, hardback. ISBN 0 7923 4001 9</article-title></title-group><contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Thorne</surname><given-names>Colin</given-names></name><aff>(University of Nottingham</aff></contrib></contrib-group><pub-date pub-type="ppub"><month>6</month><year>1997</year></pub-date><volume>7</volume><issue>2</issue><fpage>251</fpage><lpage>252</lpage><custom-meta-wrap><custom-meta xlink:type="simple"><meta-name>sagemeta-type</meta-name><meta-value>Reviews</meta-value></custom-meta><custom-meta xlink:type="simple"><meta-name>search-text</meta-name><meta-value>251 Holocene book reviewsThe implications of climate and sea-level change for Bangladesh R.A. Warrick and O.K. Ahmad, The Netherlands: Kluwer Academic Pub lishers, 1996, 416 pp., £110, hardback. ISBN 0 7923 4001 9 SAGE Publications, Inc.1997DOI: 10.1177/095968369700700223 Colin Thorne (University of Nottingham In the mid-1970s, the then US Secretary of State, Henry Kissinger, referred to the newly independent nation of Bangladesh as a 'basket case'. The legacy of this unjustified remark has remained with Bangladesh ever since, and even today it still encapsulates the popularist view in the west that Bangladesh is a nation beyond salvation. Over the last quarter of a century, this form of negative norm referencing has had adverse effects on both media coverage and public policy. Hence, the mention of Bangladesh, climate change and sea-level rise in the same sentence will conjure up only a single image in the consciousness of much of western society - one of environmental calamity superimposed on unbridled population growth, to produce human disaster. The careful and objective evaluation of the facts presented in this book provide a useful antidote to such stereo- typical thinking. The book is composed of seven chapters, each multi-authored by scholars rich in first-hand experience of Bangladesh. Chapter 1 provides an extended synthesis of the rest of the book. The level of coverage is, in fact, sufficient that this chapter alone could supply all the information necessary to brief a politician, introduce the issues to a potential aid sponsor, or frame a decent undergraduate lecture. Chapters 2 and 3 present detailed accounts of the current best estimates for climate change due to the enhanced greenhouse effect and sea-level rise in the Bay of Bengal due to global warming. The scientific basis for these predictions is considered critically and a sober examination of uncertainty accompanies each prediction. Chapters 4 and 5 deal in a logical sequence with the possible impacts of climate change and sea-level rise on the natural resource base and socioeconomic fabric of Bangladesh, while Chapter 6 reviews the capability of national and international law to cope with these impacts. Finally, Chapter 7 is devoted entirely to consideration of issues specific to the coast strip, where the concentration of millions of vulnerable people in very low-lying areas makes this, arguably, the most sensitive place on earth to sea-level rise. In considering the implications of climate and sea-level changes for Bangladesh, the book accepts the broad consensus of the scientific community that the earth is likely to warm by about 3°C before the end of the next century unless steps are taken to significantly reduce the emission of greenhouse gases. However, great uncertainties exist regarding changes in and around Bangladesh due to the inability of current global circulation models to predict changes in the complex meso-scale circulations responsible for driving regional climates. The best estimate suggests that Bangladesh will be 0.5-2°C warmer, with a 10-15% increase in monsoon rainfall by 2030, but uncertainties are very great. Even less can be said about future climate variability and the generation of extreme events such as floods, droughts and tropical cyclones, except to note that climatic warming is more likely to increase rather than decrease their frequency. On this basis, the precautionary principal calls for adaptation strategies to be 126252 implemented to reduce the vulnerability of the populace to natural disasters. Benefits would be felt immediately, even if the existing climate prevails, while enhancing the resilience of the nation would be further justified should the frequency or severity of extreme events increase. Globally, sea level is expected to rise by perhaps half a metre by 2030, with a range of uncertainty between about 0.3 and 1.1 m, at a rate of rise that is 2 to 6 times faster than that experienced in the last century. It is extremely difficult to convert these estimates into predictions of relative sea-level change along the coast of the Bay of Bengal, where tectonic movements, subsidence and siltation produce rates of vertical land movement as great as projected changes in the elevation of the sea surface. In this context, it is sobering to note that, while it is unlikely that the height of artificial barriers such as coastal embankments could be increased sufficiently to match projected rates of sea-level rise due to crippling costs, accelerated rates of sedimentation in response to rising water levels in mangrove forests (Sundarbans) along the accreting delta of the Ganges- Brahmaputra River system are quite capable of keeping up. Hence, it really may be true that nature offers the best defence against environmental change, as least in geomorphologically active sections of the coastline. However, notwithstanding nature's checks and balances, it is the adaptability of the people that will decide ultimately if Bangladesh is to survive and even develop during an era of environmental change. In assessing the adaptations that will be required, it is important to note that, since the population will have doubled by 2030, climate and sea-level changes will affect a society very different to today's. What can be said assuredly is that for half a century the people of Bangladesh have been coping with the effects of natural disasters, war and political strife while burdened by a post-colonial legacy that has severely disadvantaged them. The nation that has emerged from these adversities is in transition demographically and economically, is struggling (but on the whole succeeding) to feed its growing population and is holding fast to its commitments for increased provision of health care and education. The future of Bangladesh depends on success in unlocking the latent potential of its population. If it is successful in doing so then the nation has the creativity to manage the effects of climate change and sea-level rise. If it fails, then environmental deterioration will simply make a bad situation worse. Based on my personal experience of Bangladeshi drive and determination, I have no doubt that Bangladesh will survive and, eventually, prosper. The authors are less subjective, however, and throughout the volume an objective stance is adopted. Data and information are treated analytically, with all statements being properly founded on the evidence available and excellent use made of 'boxes' to summarize key points and findings. The text is reasonably well supported by maps and diagrams, but there are no photographs. All illustrations are in black and white, when the maps, particularly, are crying out for the use of colour. Many complex maps and diagrams are reproduced at a small size and this, together with the lack of colour, limits their usefulness. In fact, the presentation of illustrative material is disappointing for a relatively expensive, hardback book in the late-1990s. Referencing is satisfactory, although a great deal of original information is sourced from 'grey' literature unavailable outside Dhaka, and there are one or two glaring omissions from the acknowledgements, particularly the staff at FAP-19 (the Geographical Information System for Bangladesh) in Dhaka, who have clearly supplied a large volume of the mapping and spatial data used in the volume. Warrick and Ahmad's learned treatise is a comprehensive and thorough piece of work and it should be read by all serious academics, political leaders, policy-makers and media commentators before they form their opinions on the portents of environmental change for Bangladesh.</meta-value></custom-meta></custom-meta-wrap></article-meta></front></article></istex:document></istex:metadataXml><mods version="3.6"><titleInfo lang="en"><title>Holocene book reviews : The implications of climate and sea-level change for Bangladesh R.A. Warrick and O.K. 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