Quantitative analysis of the risk of spread of equine influenza associated with movements of vaccinated horses from infected areas during the Australian outbreak
Identifieur interne : 000F25 ( Istex/Corpus ); précédent : 000F24; suivant : 000F26Quantitative analysis of the risk of spread of equine influenza associated with movements of vaccinated horses from infected areas during the Australian outbreak
Auteurs : Esg Sergeant ; M. Stone ; Bj Moloney ; R. ArthurSource :
- Australian Veterinary Journal [ 0005-0423 ] ; 2011-07.
English descriptors
Abstract
Simulation models were developed to quantify the likelihood of equine influenza virus infection entering pre‐movement isolation, persisting through pre‐ and post‐movement isolation periods without being detected by scheduled laboratory testing, and escaping to infect susceptible horses at a destination. The mean probability of escape ranged from 1 in 1,200,000 to 1 in 600,000 depending on lot size. For 95% of iterations the probability of escape was less than 1 in 200,000, regardless of lot size. For a large group of 600 horses processed as multiple separate lots, the mean probability of escape ranged from 1 in 10,000 to 1 in 56,000 depending on lot size. As a result of this analysis, a modified protocol, with two tests during pre‐movement isolation and an additional test during post‐movement isolation at the Chief Veterinary Officer's discretion, was implemented.
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DOI: 10.1111/j.1751-0813.2011.00761.x
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Stone</name><affiliation><mods:affiliation>NSW Department of Primary Industries, Orange, New South Wales, Australia</mods:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Moloney, Bj" sort="Moloney, Bj" uniqKey="Moloney B" first="Bj" last="Moloney">Bj Moloney</name><affiliation><mods:affiliation>NSW Department of Primary Industries, Orange, New South Wales, Australia</mods:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Arthur, R" sort="Arthur, R" uniqKey="Arthur R" first="R" last="Arthur">R. 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The mean probability of escape ranged from 1 in 1,200,000 to 1 in 600,000 depending on lot size. For 95% of iterations the probability of escape was less than 1 in 200,000, regardless of lot size. For a large group of 600 horses processed as multiple separate lots, the mean probability of escape ranged from 1 in 10,000 to 1 in 56,000 depending on lot size. 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The mean probability of escape ranged from 1 in 1,200,000 to 1 in 600,000 depending on lot size. For 95% of iterations the probability of escape was less than 1 in 200,000, regardless of lot size. For a large group of 600 horses processed as multiple separate lots, the mean probability of escape ranged from 1 in 10,000 to 1 in 56,000 depending on lot size. As a result of this analysis, a modified protocol, with two tests during pre‐movement isolation and an additional test during post‐movement isolation at the Chief Veterinary Officer's discretion, was implemented.</abstract><subject lang="en"><genre>Keywords</genre><topic>emergency animal disease</topic><topic>equine influenza</topic><topic>movement controls</topic><topic>quarantine</topic><topic>risk analysis</topic></subject><relatedItem type="host"><titleInfo><title>Australian Veterinary Journal</title></titleInfo><identifier type="ISSN">0005-0423</identifier><identifier type="eISSN">1751-0813</identifier><identifier type="DOI">10.1111/(ISSN)1751-0813</identifier><identifier type="PublisherID">AVJ</identifier><part><date>2011</date><detail type="title"><title>Equine Influenza in Australia in 2007</title></detail><detail type="volume"><caption>vol.</caption><number>89</number></detail><detail type="supplement"><caption>Suppl. no.</caption><number>s1</number></detail><extent unit="pages"><start>103</start><end>108</end><total>6</total></extent></part></relatedItem><identifier type="istex">7EEF2255F81E1DA05C65320AAEBAA67D60A9F262</identifier><identifier type="DOI">10.1111/j.1751-0813.2011.00761.x</identifier><identifier type="ArticleID">AVJ761</identifier><accessCondition type="use and reproduction" contentType="copyright">© 2011 The Authors. 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