The Mediterranean Sea as a ‘cul‐de‐sac’ for endemic fishes facing climate change
Identifieur interne : 001316 ( Istex/Corpus ); précédent : 001315; suivant : 001317The Mediterranean Sea as a ‘cul‐de‐sac’ for endemic fishes facing climate change
Auteurs : Frida Ben Rais Lasram ; François Guilhaumon ; Camille Albouy ; Samuel Somot ; Wilfried Thuiller ; David MouillotSource :
- Global Change Biology [ 1354-1013 ] ; 2010-12.
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Abstract
The Mediterranean Sea is a hotspot of biodiversity, and climate warming is expected to have a significant influence on its endemic fish species. However, no previous studies have predicted whether fish species will experience geographic range extensions or contractions as a consequence of warming. Here, we projected the potential future climatic niches of 75 Mediterranean Sea endemic fish species based on a global warming scenario implemented with the Mediterranean model OPAMED8 and a multimodel inference, which included uncertainty. By 2070–2099, the average surface temperature of the Mediterranean Sea was projected to warm by 3.1 °C. Projections for 2041–2060 are that 25 species would qualify for the International Union for the Conservation of Nature and Natural Resources (IUCN) Red List, and six species would become extinct. By 2070–2099, 45 species were expected to qualify for the IUCN Red List whereas 14 were expected to become extinct. By the middle of the 21st century, the coldest areas of the Mediterranean Sea (Adriatic Sea and Gulf of Lion) would act as a refuge for cold‐water species, but by the end of the century, those areas were projected to become a ‘cul‐de‐sac’ that would drive those species towards extinction. In addition, the range size of endemic species was projected to undergo extensive fragmentation, which is a potentially aggravating factor. Since a majority of endemic fishes are specialists, regarding substratum and diet, we may expect a reduced ability to track projected climatic niches. As a whole, 25% of the Mediterranean Sea continental shelf was predicted to experience a total modification of endemic species assemblages by the end of the 21st century. This expected turnover rate could be mitigated by marine protected areas or accelerated by fishing pressure or competition from exotic fishes. It remains a challenge to predict how these assemblage modifications might affect ecosystem function.
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DOI: 10.1111/j.1365-2486.2010.02224.x
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ISTEX:B17E7CFA08F7A44765A183373B8A8EC955EF81D0Le document en format XML
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However, no previous studies have predicted whether fish species will experience geographic range extensions or contractions as a consequence of warming. Here, we projected the potential future climatic niches of 75 Mediterranean Sea endemic fish species based on a global warming scenario implemented with the Mediterranean model OPAMED8 and a multimodel inference, which included uncertainty. By 2070–2099, the average surface temperature of the Mediterranean Sea was projected to warm by 3.1 °C. Projections for 2041–2060 are that 25 species would qualify for the International Union for the Conservation of Nature and Natural Resources (IUCN) Red List, and six species would become extinct. By 2070–2099, 45 species were expected to qualify for the IUCN Red List whereas 14 were expected to become extinct. By the middle of the 21st century, the coldest areas of the Mediterranean Sea (Adriatic Sea and Gulf of Lion) would act as a refuge for cold‐water species, but by the end of the century, those areas were projected to become a ‘cul‐de‐sac’ that would drive those species towards extinction. In addition, the range size of endemic species was projected to undergo extensive fragmentation, which is a potentially aggravating factor. Since a majority of endemic fishes are specialists, regarding substratum and diet, we may expect a reduced ability to track projected climatic niches. As a whole, 25% of the Mediterranean Sea continental shelf was predicted to experience a total modification of endemic species assemblages by the end of the 21st century. This expected turnover rate could be mitigated by marine protected areas or accelerated by fishing pressure or competition from exotic fishes. 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However, no previous studies have predicted whether fish species will experience geographic range extensions or contractions as a consequence of warming. Here, we projected the potential future climatic niches of 75 Mediterranean Sea endemic fish species based on a global warming scenario implemented with the Mediterranean model OPAMED8 and a multimodel inference, which included uncertainty. By 2070–2099, the average surface temperature of the Mediterranean Sea was projected to warm by 3.1 °C. Projections for 2041–2060 are that 25 species would qualify for the International Union for the Conservation of Nature and Natural Resources (IUCN) Red List, and six species would become extinct. By 2070–2099, 45 species were expected to qualify for the IUCN Red List whereas 14 were expected to become extinct. By the middle of the 21st century, the coldest areas of the Mediterranean Sea (Adriatic Sea and Gulf of Lion) would act as a refuge for cold‐water species, but by the end of the century, those areas were projected to become a ‘cul‐de‐sac’ that would drive those species towards extinction. In addition, the range size of endemic species was projected to undergo extensive fragmentation, which is a potentially aggravating factor. Since a majority of endemic fishes are specialists, regarding substratum and diet, we may expect a reduced ability to track projected climatic niches. As a whole, 25% of the Mediterranean Sea continental shelf was predicted to experience a total modification of endemic species assemblages by the end of the 21st century. This expected turnover rate could be mitigated by marine protected areas or accelerated by fishing pressure or competition from exotic fishes. It remains a challenge to predict how these assemblage modifications might affect ecosystem function.</p></abstract><textClass xml:lang="en"><keywords scheme="keyword"><list><head>keywords</head><item><term>BIOMOD</term></item><item><term>fragmentation</term></item><item><term>global warming</term></item><item><term>habitat suitability model (HSM)</term></item><item><term>IUCN</term></item><item><term>species turnover</term></item><item><term>species vulnerability</term></item></list></keywords></textClass></profileDesc><revisionDesc><change when="2010-12">Published</change></revisionDesc></teiHeader></istex:fulltextTEI><json:item><extension>txt</extension><original>false</original><mimetype>text/plain</mimetype><uri>https://api.istex.fr/document/B17E7CFA08F7A44765A183373B8A8EC955EF81D0/fulltext/txt</uri></json:item></fulltext><metadata><istex:metadataXml wicri:clean="Wiley, elements deleted: body"><istex:xmlDeclaration>version="1.0" encoding="UTF-8" standalone="yes"</istex:xmlDeclaration><istex:document><component version="2.0" type="serialArticle" xml:lang="en"><header><publicationMeta level="product"><publisherInfo><publisherName>Blackwell Publishing Ltd</publisherName><publisherLoc>Oxford, UK</publisherLoc></publisherInfo><doi origin="wiley" registered="yes">10.1111/(ISSN)1365-2486</doi><issn type="print">1354-1013</issn><issn type="electronic">1365-2486</issn><idGroup><id type="product" value="GCB"></id><id type="publisherDivision" value="ST"></id></idGroup><titleGroup><title type="main" sort="GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY">Global Change Biology</title></titleGroup></publicationMeta><publicationMeta level="part" position="12112"><doi origin="wiley">10.1111/gcb.2010.16.issue-12</doi><numberingGroup><numbering type="journalVolume" number="16">16</numbering><numbering type="journalIssue" number="12">12</numbering></numberingGroup><coverDate startDate="2010-12">December 2010</coverDate></publicationMeta><publicationMeta level="unit" type="article" position="7" status="forIssue"><doi origin="wiley">10.1111/j.1365-2486.2010.02224.x</doi><idGroup><id type="unit" value="GCB2224"></id><id type="supplier" value="2224"></id></idGroup><countGroup><count type="pageTotal" number="13"></count></countGroup><titleGroup><title type="tocHeading1">Original Articles</title></titleGroup><copyright>© 2010 Blackwell Publishing Ltd</copyright><eventGroup><event type="firstOnline" date="2010-05-17"></event><event type="publishedOnlineAcceptedOrEarlyUnpaginated" date="2010-05-17"></event><event type="xmlConverted" agent="Converter:BPG_TO_WML3G version:2.3.25.1 mode:FullText" date="2010-11-10"></event><event type="publishedOnlineFinalForm" date="2010-11-03"></event><event type="xmlConverted" agent="Converter:WILEY_ML3G_TO_WILEY_ML3GV2 version:3.8.8" date="2014-01-25"></event><event type="xmlConverted" agent="Converter:WML3G_To_WML3G version:4.1.7 mode:FullText,remove_FC" date="2014-10-23"></event></eventGroup><numberingGroup><numbering type="pageFirst" number="3233">3233</numbering><numbering type="pageLast" number="3245">3245</numbering></numberingGroup><correspondenceTo> F. Ben Rais Lasram, Laboratoire Ecosystèmes et Ressources Aquatiques UR03AGRO1, Institut National Agronomique de Tunisie, 43 avenue Charles Nicolle, 1082 Tunis, Tunisia, tel. +216 71 28 71 10, fax +216 71 79 93 91, e‐mail: <email normalForm="frida.lasram@gmail.com">frida.lasram@gmail.com</email></correspondenceTo><linkGroup><link type="toTypesetVersion" href="file:GCB.GCB2224.pdf"></link></linkGroup></publicationMeta><contentMeta><unparsedEditorialHistory>Received 2 November 2009; revised version received 11 February 2010 and accepted 15 February 2010</unparsedEditorialHistory><countGroup><count type="figureTotal" number="6"></count><count type="tableTotal" number="1"></count><count type="formulaTotal" number="2"></count><count type="referenceTotal" number="108"></count><count type="wordTotal" number="11792"></count><count type="linksCrossRef" number="158"></count></countGroup><titleGroup><title type="main">The Mediterranean Sea as a ‘cul‐de‐sac’ for endemic fishes facing climate change</title><title type="shortAuthors">F. BEN RAIS LASRAM <i>et al.</i></title><title type="short">A MARINE ENDEMIC HOTSPOT UNDER THREAT</title></titleGroup><creators><creator creatorRole="author" xml:id="cr1" affiliationRef="#a1 #a2"><personName><givenNames>FRIDA</givenNames><familyName>BEN RAIS LASRAM</familyName></personName></creator><creator creatorRole="author" xml:id="cr2" affiliationRef="#a1"><personName><givenNames>FRANÇOIS</givenNames><familyName>GUILHAUMON</familyName></personName></creator><creator creatorRole="author" xml:id="cr3" affiliationRef="#a1"><personName><givenNames>CAMILLE</givenNames><familyName>ALBOUY</familyName></personName></creator><creator creatorRole="author" xml:id="cr4" affiliationRef="#a3"><personName><givenNames>SAMUEL</givenNames><familyName>SOMOT</familyName></personName></creator><creator creatorRole="author" xml:id="cr5" affiliationRef="#a4"><personName><givenNames>WILFRIED</givenNames><familyName>THUILLER</familyName></personName></creator><creator creatorRole="author" xml:id="cr6" affiliationRef="#a1"><personName><givenNames>DAVID</givenNames><familyName>MOUILLOT</familyName></personName></creator></creators><affiliationGroup><affiliation xml:id="a1" countryCode="FR"><unparsedAffiliation>Laboratoire Ecosystèmes Lagunaires UMR 5119, Université Montpellier 2, cc 093, Place E. Bataillon, 34095 Montpellier Cedex 5, France</unparsedAffiliation></affiliation><affiliation xml:id="a2" countryCode="TN"><unparsedAffiliation>Laboratoire Ecosystèmes et Ressources Aquatiques UR03AGRO1, Institut National Agronomique de Tunisie, 43 avenue Charles Nicolle, 1082 Tunis, Tunisia</unparsedAffiliation></affiliation><affiliation xml:id="a3" countryCode="FR"><unparsedAffiliation>Météo‐France, Centre National de Recherches Météorologiques CNRM‐GAME, 42 avenue Gaspard Coriolis, 31057 Toulouse Cedex, France</unparsedAffiliation></affiliation><affiliation xml:id="a4" countryCode="FR"><unparsedAffiliation>Laboratoire Ecologie Alpine, UMR CNRS 5553, Université J. Fourier, BP 53, 38041 Grenoble Cedex 9, France</unparsedAffiliation></affiliation></affiliationGroup><keywordGroup xml:lang="en"><keyword xml:id="k1">BIOMOD</keyword><keyword xml:id="k2">fragmentation</keyword><keyword xml:id="k3">global warming</keyword><keyword xml:id="k4">habitat suitability model (HSM)</keyword><keyword xml:id="k5">IUCN</keyword><keyword xml:id="k6">species turnover</keyword><keyword xml:id="k7">species vulnerability</keyword></keywordGroup><abstractGroup><abstract type="main" xml:lang="en"><title type="main">Abstract</title><p>The Mediterranean Sea is a hotspot of biodiversity, and climate warming is expected to have a significant influence on its endemic fish species. However, no previous studies have predicted whether fish species will experience geographic range extensions or contractions as a consequence of warming. Here, we projected the potential future climatic niches of 75 Mediterranean Sea endemic fish species based on a global warming scenario implemented with the Mediterranean model OPAMED8 and a multimodel inference, which included uncertainty. By 2070–2099, the average surface temperature of the Mediterranean Sea was projected to warm by 3.1 °C. Projections for 2041–2060 are that 25 species would qualify for the International Union for the Conservation of Nature and Natural Resources (IUCN) Red List, and six species would become extinct. By 2070–2099, 45 species were expected to qualify for the IUCN Red List whereas 14 were expected to become extinct. By the middle of the 21st century, the coldest areas of the Mediterranean Sea (Adriatic Sea and Gulf of Lion) would act as a refuge for cold‐water species, but by the end of the century, those areas were projected to become a ‘cul‐de‐sac’ that would drive those species towards extinction. In addition, the range size of endemic species was projected to undergo extensive fragmentation, which is a potentially aggravating factor. Since a majority of endemic fishes are specialists, regarding substratum and diet, we may expect a reduced ability to track projected climatic niches. As a whole, 25% of the Mediterranean Sea continental shelf was predicted to experience a total modification of endemic species assemblages by the end of the 21st century. This expected turnover rate could be mitigated by marine protected areas or accelerated by fishing pressure or competition from exotic fishes. It remains a challenge to predict how these assemblage modifications might affect ecosystem function.</p></abstract></abstractGroup></contentMeta></header></component></istex:document></istex:metadataXml><mods version="3.6"><titleInfo lang="en"><title>The Mediterranean Sea as a ‘cul‐de‐sac’ for endemic fishes facing climate change</title></titleInfo><titleInfo type="abbreviated" lang="en"><title>A MARINE ENDEMIC HOTSPOT UNDER THREAT</title></titleInfo><titleInfo type="alternative" contentType="CDATA" lang="en"><title>The Mediterranean Sea as a ‘cul‐de‐sac’ for endemic fishes facing climate change</title></titleInfo><name type="personal"><namePart type="given">FRIDA</namePart><namePart type="family">BEN RAIS LASRAM</namePart><affiliation>Laboratoire Ecosystèmes Lagunaires UMR 5119, Université Montpellier 2, cc 093, Place E. Bataillon, 34095 Montpellier Cedex 5, France</affiliation><affiliation>Laboratoire Ecosystèmes et Ressources Aquatiques UR03AGRO1, Institut National Agronomique de Tunisie, 43 avenue Charles Nicolle, 1082 Tunis, Tunisia</affiliation><role><roleTerm type="text">author</roleTerm></role></name><name type="personal"><namePart type="given">FRANÇOIS</namePart><namePart type="family">GUILHAUMON</namePart><affiliation>Laboratoire Ecosystèmes Lagunaires UMR 5119, Université Montpellier 2, cc 093, Place E. Bataillon, 34095 Montpellier Cedex 5, France</affiliation><role><roleTerm type="text">author</roleTerm></role></name><name type="personal"><namePart type="given">CAMILLE</namePart><namePart type="family">ALBOUY</namePart><affiliation>Laboratoire Ecosystèmes Lagunaires UMR 5119, Université Montpellier 2, cc 093, Place E. Bataillon, 34095 Montpellier Cedex 5, France</affiliation><role><roleTerm type="text">author</roleTerm></role></name><name type="personal"><namePart type="given">SAMUEL</namePart><namePart type="family">SOMOT</namePart><affiliation>Météo‐France, Centre National de Recherches Météorologiques CNRM‐GAME, 42 avenue Gaspard Coriolis, 31057 Toulouse Cedex, France</affiliation><role><roleTerm type="text">author</roleTerm></role></name><name type="personal"><namePart type="given">WILFRIED</namePart><namePart type="family">THUILLER</namePart><affiliation>Laboratoire Ecologie Alpine, UMR CNRS 5553, Université J. Fourier, BP 53, 38041 Grenoble Cedex 9, France</affiliation><role><roleTerm type="text">author</roleTerm></role></name><name type="personal"><namePart type="given">DAVID</namePart><namePart type="family">MOUILLOT</namePart><affiliation>Laboratoire Ecosystèmes Lagunaires UMR 5119, Université Montpellier 2, cc 093, Place E. Bataillon, 34095 Montpellier Cedex 5, France</affiliation><role><roleTerm type="text">author</roleTerm></role></name><typeOfResource>text</typeOfResource><genre type="article" displayLabel="article"></genre><originInfo><publisher>Blackwell Publishing Ltd</publisher><place><placeTerm type="text">Oxford, UK</placeTerm></place><dateIssued encoding="w3cdtf">2010-12</dateIssued><edition>Received 2 November 2009; revised version received 11 February 2010 and accepted 15 February 2010</edition><copyrightDate encoding="w3cdtf">2010</copyrightDate></originInfo><language><languageTerm type="code" authority="rfc3066">en</languageTerm><languageTerm type="code" authority="iso639-2b">eng</languageTerm></language><physicalDescription><internetMediaType>text/html</internetMediaType><extent unit="figures">6</extent><extent unit="tables">1</extent><extent unit="formulas">2</extent><extent unit="references">108</extent><extent unit="words">11792</extent></physicalDescription><abstract lang="en">The Mediterranean Sea is a hotspot of biodiversity, and climate warming is expected to have a significant influence on its endemic fish species. However, no previous studies have predicted whether fish species will experience geographic range extensions or contractions as a consequence of warming. Here, we projected the potential future climatic niches of 75 Mediterranean Sea endemic fish species based on a global warming scenario implemented with the Mediterranean model OPAMED8 and a multimodel inference, which included uncertainty. By 2070–2099, the average surface temperature of the Mediterranean Sea was projected to warm by 3.1 °C. Projections for 2041–2060 are that 25 species would qualify for the International Union for the Conservation of Nature and Natural Resources (IUCN) Red List, and six species would become extinct. By 2070–2099, 45 species were expected to qualify for the IUCN Red List whereas 14 were expected to become extinct. By the middle of the 21st century, the coldest areas of the Mediterranean Sea (Adriatic Sea and Gulf of Lion) would act as a refuge for cold‐water species, but by the end of the century, those areas were projected to become a ‘cul‐de‐sac’ that would drive those species towards extinction. In addition, the range size of endemic species was projected to undergo extensive fragmentation, which is a potentially aggravating factor. Since a majority of endemic fishes are specialists, regarding substratum and diet, we may expect a reduced ability to track projected climatic niches. As a whole, 25% of the Mediterranean Sea continental shelf was predicted to experience a total modification of endemic species assemblages by the end of the 21st century. This expected turnover rate could be mitigated by marine protected areas or accelerated by fishing pressure or competition from exotic fishes. It remains a challenge to predict how these assemblage modifications might affect ecosystem function.</abstract><subject lang="en"><genre>keywords</genre><topic>BIOMOD</topic><topic>fragmentation</topic><topic>global warming</topic><topic>habitat suitability model (HSM)</topic><topic>IUCN</topic><topic>species turnover</topic><topic>species vulnerability</topic></subject><relatedItem type="host"><titleInfo><title>Global Change Biology</title></titleInfo><genre type="journal">journal</genre><identifier type="ISSN">1354-1013</identifier><identifier type="eISSN">1365-2486</identifier><identifier type="DOI">10.1111/(ISSN)1365-2486</identifier><identifier type="PublisherID">GCB</identifier><part><date>2010</date><detail type="volume"><caption>vol.</caption><number>16</number></detail><detail type="issue"><caption>no.</caption><number>12</number></detail><extent unit="pages"><start>3233</start><end>3245</end><total>13</total></extent></part></relatedItem><identifier type="istex">B17E7CFA08F7A44765A183373B8A8EC955EF81D0</identifier><identifier type="DOI">10.1111/j.1365-2486.2010.02224.x</identifier><identifier type="ArticleID">GCB2224</identifier><accessCondition type="use and reproduction" contentType="copyright">© 2010 Blackwell Publishing Ltd</accessCondition><recordInfo><recordContentSource>WILEY</recordContentSource><recordOrigin>Blackwell Publishing Ltd</recordOrigin></recordInfo></mods></metadata><serie></serie></istex></record>Pour manipuler ce document sous Unix (Dilib)
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