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Rabies and Canine Distemper Virus Epidemics in the Red Fox Population of Northern Italy (2006–2010)

Identifieur interne : 000330 ( Ncbi/Merge ); précédent : 000329; suivant : 000331

Rabies and Canine Distemper Virus Epidemics in the Red Fox Population of Northern Italy (2006–2010)

Auteurs : Pierre Nouvellet [Royaume-Uni] ; Christl A. Donnelly [Royaume-Uni] ; Marco De Nardi [Italie] ; Chris J. Rhodes [Royaume-Uni] ; Paola De Benedictis [Italie] ; Carlo Citterio [Italie] ; Federica Obber [Italie] ; Monica Lorenzetto [Italie] ; Manuela Dalla Pozza [Italie] ; Simon Cauchemez [Royaume-Uni] ; Giovanni Cattoli [Italie]

Source :

RBID : PMC:3632604

Abstract

Since 2006 the red fox (Vulpes vulpes) population in north-eastern Italy has experienced an epidemic of canine distemper virus (CDV). Additionally, in 2008, after a thirteen-year absence from Italy, fox rabies was re-introduced in the Udine province at the national border with Slovenia. Disease intervention strategies are being developed and implemented to control rabies in this area and minimise risk to human health. Here we present empirical data and the epidemiological picture relating to these epidemics in the period 2006–2010. Of important significance for epidemiological studies of wild animals, basic mathematical models are developed to exploit information collected from the surveillance program on dead and/or living animals in order to assess the incidence of infection. These models are also used to estimate the rate of transmission of both diseases and the rate of vaccination, while correcting for a bias in early collection of CDV samples. We found that the rate of rabies transmission was roughly twice that of CDV, with an estimated effective contact between infected and susceptible fox leading to a new infection occurring once every 3 days for rabies, and once a week for CDV. We also inferred that during the early stage of the CDV epidemic, a bias in the monitoring protocol resulted in a positive sample being almost 10 times more likely to be collected than a negative sample. We estimated the rate of intake of oral vaccine at 0.006 per day, allowing us to estimate that roughly 68% of the foxes would be immunised. This was confirmed by field observations. Finally we discuss the implications for the eco-epidemiological dynamics of both epidemics in relation to control measures.


Url:
DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0061588
PubMed: 23630599
PubMed Central: 3632604

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PMC:3632604

Le document en format XML

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<p>Since 2006 the red fox (
<italic>Vulpes vulpes</italic>
) population in north-eastern Italy has experienced an epidemic of canine distemper virus (CDV). Additionally, in 2008, after a thirteen-year absence from Italy, fox rabies was re-introduced in the Udine province at the national border with Slovenia. Disease intervention strategies are being developed and implemented to control rabies in this area and minimise risk to human health. Here we present empirical data and the epidemiological picture relating to these epidemics in the period 2006–2010. Of important significance for epidemiological studies of wild animals, basic mathematical models are developed to exploit information collected from the surveillance program on dead and/or living animals in order to assess the incidence of infection. These models are also used to estimate the rate of transmission of both diseases and the rate of vaccination, while correcting for a bias in early collection of CDV samples. We found that the rate of rabies transmission was roughly twice that of CDV, with an estimated effective contact between infected and susceptible fox leading to a new infection occurring once every 3 days for rabies, and once a week for CDV. We also inferred that during the early stage of the CDV epidemic, a bias in the monitoring protocol resulted in a positive sample being almost 10 times more likely to be collected than a negative sample. We estimated the rate of intake of oral vaccine at 0.006 per day, allowing us to estimate that roughly 68% of the foxes would be immunised. This was confirmed by field observations. Finally we discuss the implications for the eco-epidemiological dynamics of both epidemics in relation to control measures.</p>
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<journal-id journal-id-type="nlm-ta">PLoS One</journal-id>
<journal-id journal-id-type="iso-abbrev">PLoS ONE</journal-id>
<journal-id journal-id-type="publisher-id">plos</journal-id>
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<issn pub-type="epub">1932-6203</issn>
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<publisher-name>Public Library of Science</publisher-name>
<publisher-loc>San Francisco, USA</publisher-loc>
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<article-meta>
<article-id pub-id-type="pmid">23630599</article-id>
<article-id pub-id-type="pmc">3632604</article-id>
<article-id pub-id-type="publisher-id">PONE-D-12-24458</article-id>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.1371/journal.pone.0061588</article-id>
<article-categories>
<subj-group subj-group-type="heading">
<subject>Research Article</subject>
</subj-group>
<subj-group subj-group-type="Discipline-v2">
<subject>Biology</subject>
<subj-group>
<subject>Computational Biology</subject>
<subj-group>
<subject>Population Modeling</subject>
<subj-group>
<subject>Infectious Disease Modeling</subject>
</subj-group>
</subj-group>
</subj-group>
<subj-group>
<subject>Population Biology</subject>
<subj-group>
<subject>Epidemiology</subject>
<subj-group>
<subject>Infectious Disease Epidemiology</subject>
</subj-group>
</subj-group>
</subj-group>
</subj-group>
<subj-group subj-group-type="Discipline-v2">
<subject>Veterinary Science</subject>
<subj-group>
<subject>Animal Types</subject>
<subj-group>
<subject>Wildlife</subject>
</subj-group>
</subj-group>
<subj-group>
<subject>Veterinary Diseases</subject>
<subj-group>
<subject>Zoonotic Diseases</subject>
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<subject>Rabies</subject>
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</subj-group>
<subj-group>
<subject>Veterinary Epidemiology</subject>
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<title-group>
<article-title>Rabies and Canine Distemper Virus Epidemics in the Red Fox Population of Northern Italy (2006–2010)</article-title>
<alt-title alt-title-type="running-head">Rabies and Canine Distemper Virus in Italian Foxes</alt-title>
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<contrib-group>
<contrib contrib-type="author" equal-contrib="yes">
<name>
<surname>Nouvellet</surname>
<given-names>Pierre</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
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</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" equal-contrib="yes">
<name>
<surname>Donnelly</surname>
<given-names>Christl A.</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="corresp" rid="cor1">
<sup>*</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" equal-contrib="yes">
<name>
<surname>De Nardi</surname>
<given-names>Marco</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">
<sup>2</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" equal-contrib="yes">
<name>
<surname>Rhodes</surname>
<given-names>Chris J.</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname>De Benedictis</surname>
<given-names>Paola</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">
<sup>2</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname>Citterio</surname>
<given-names>Carlo</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff4">
<sup>4</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname>Obber</surname>
<given-names>Federica</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff4">
<sup>4</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname>Lorenzetto</surname>
<given-names>Monica</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff3">
<sup>3</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname>Pozza</surname>
<given-names>Manuela Dalla</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff3">
<sup>3</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname>Cauchemez</surname>
<given-names>Simon</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname>Cattoli</surname>
<given-names>Giovanni</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">
<sup>2</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
</contrib-group>
<aff id="aff1">
<label>1</label>
<addr-line>Medical Research Council Centre for Outbreak Analysis and Modelling, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff2">
<label>2</label>
<addr-line>Food and Agriculture Organization Reference Centre for Rabies and World Organisation for Animal Health Collaborating Centre for Diseases at the Human-Animal Interface, Research and Development Department, Istituto Zooprofilattico Sperimentale delle Venezie, Legnaro, Padova, Italy</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff3">
<label>3</label>
<addr-line>Regional Centre for Veterinary Epidemiology, Istituto Zooprofilattico Sperimentale delle Venezie, Legnaro, Padova, Italy</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff4">
<label>4</label>
<addr-line>Istituto Zooprofilattico Sperimentale delle Venezie, Sezione territoriale di Belluno, Belluno, Italy</addr-line>
</aff>
<contrib-group>
<contrib contrib-type="editor">
<name>
<surname>Gubbins</surname>
<given-names>Simon</given-names>
</name>
<role>Editor</role>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="edit1"></xref>
</contrib>
</contrib-group>
<aff id="edit1">
<addr-line>Institute for Animal Health, United Kingdom</addr-line>
</aff>
<author-notes>
<corresp id="cor1">* E-mail:
<email>c.donnelly@imperial.ac.uk</email>
</corresp>
<fn fn-type="conflict">
<p>
<bold>Competing Interests: </bold>
The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.</p>
</fn>
<fn fn-type="con">
<p>Developed models and parameters inference: PN CJR CAD SC. Wrote, edited, and reviewed manuscript: PN CJR CAD MDN PDB ML CC FO MDP SC GC. Collected and edited the data: MDN PDB ML CC FO MDP GC. Conceived and designed the experiments: CJR CAD MDN. Analyzed the data: PN CJR CAD MDN PDB ML CC MDP SC GC FO. Wrote the paper: PN CJR CAD MDN PDB ML CC MDP SC GC FO.</p>
</fn>
</author-notes>
<pub-date pub-type="collection">
<year>2013</year>
</pub-date>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>22</day>
<month>4</month>
<year>2013</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>8</volume>
<issue>4</issue>
<elocation-id>e61588</elocation-id>
<history>
<date date-type="received">
<day>16</day>
<month>8</month>
<year>2012</year>
</date>
<date date-type="accepted">
<day>11</day>
<month>3</month>
<year>2013</year>
</date>
</history>
<permissions>
<copyright-year>2013</copyright-year>
<copyright-holder>Nouvellet et al</copyright-holder>
<license>
<license-p>This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.</license-p>
</license>
</permissions>
<abstract>
<p>Since 2006 the red fox (
<italic>Vulpes vulpes</italic>
) population in north-eastern Italy has experienced an epidemic of canine distemper virus (CDV). Additionally, in 2008, after a thirteen-year absence from Italy, fox rabies was re-introduced in the Udine province at the national border with Slovenia. Disease intervention strategies are being developed and implemented to control rabies in this area and minimise risk to human health. Here we present empirical data and the epidemiological picture relating to these epidemics in the period 2006–2010. Of important significance for epidemiological studies of wild animals, basic mathematical models are developed to exploit information collected from the surveillance program on dead and/or living animals in order to assess the incidence of infection. These models are also used to estimate the rate of transmission of both diseases and the rate of vaccination, while correcting for a bias in early collection of CDV samples. We found that the rate of rabies transmission was roughly twice that of CDV, with an estimated effective contact between infected and susceptible fox leading to a new infection occurring once every 3 days for rabies, and once a week for CDV. We also inferred that during the early stage of the CDV epidemic, a bias in the monitoring protocol resulted in a positive sample being almost 10 times more likely to be collected than a negative sample. We estimated the rate of intake of oral vaccine at 0.006 per day, allowing us to estimate that roughly 68% of the foxes would be immunised. This was confirmed by field observations. Finally we discuss the implications for the eco-epidemiological dynamics of both epidemics in relation to control measures.</p>
</abstract>
<funding-group>
<funding-statement>The research leading to these results received funding from the European Union Seventh Framework Programme [FP7/2007–2013] under Grant Agreement n°278433-PREDEMICS. MDN, PDB, ML, CC, FO, MDP and GC acknowledge the support of Istituto Zooprofilattico Sperimentale delle Venezie, Padova. This study is partially funded by the Italian Ministry of Health through RC IZS VE 07/08 and RC IZSVE 06/09 projects. PN, CAD, CJR and SC thank the Medical Research Council Centre for Outbreak Analysis and Modelling for support. CJR was supported by the Research Councils of the United Kingdom and Imperial College London. The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript.</funding-statement>
</funding-group>
<counts>
<page-count count="12"></page-count>
</counts>
</article-meta>
</front>
</pmc>
<affiliations>
<list>
<country>
<li>Italie</li>
<li>Royaume-Uni</li>
</country>
<region>
<li>Angleterre</li>
<li>Grand Londres</li>
</region>
<settlement>
<li>Londres</li>
</settlement>
</list>
<tree>
<country name="Royaume-Uni">
<region name="Angleterre">
<name sortKey="Nouvellet, Pierre" sort="Nouvellet, Pierre" uniqKey="Nouvellet P" first="Pierre" last="Nouvellet">Pierre Nouvellet</name>
</region>
<name sortKey="Cauchemez, Simon" sort="Cauchemez, Simon" uniqKey="Cauchemez S" first="Simon" last="Cauchemez">Simon Cauchemez</name>
<name sortKey="Donnelly, Christl A" sort="Donnelly, Christl A" uniqKey="Donnelly C" first="Christl A." last="Donnelly">Christl A. Donnelly</name>
<name sortKey="Rhodes, Chris J" sort="Rhodes, Chris J" uniqKey="Rhodes C" first="Chris J." last="Rhodes">Chris J. Rhodes</name>
</country>
<country name="Italie">
<noRegion>
<name sortKey="De Nardi, Marco" sort="De Nardi, Marco" uniqKey="De Nardi M" first="Marco" last="De Nardi">Marco De Nardi</name>
</noRegion>
<name sortKey="Cattoli, Giovanni" sort="Cattoli, Giovanni" uniqKey="Cattoli G" first="Giovanni" last="Cattoli">Giovanni Cattoli</name>
<name sortKey="Citterio, Carlo" sort="Citterio, Carlo" uniqKey="Citterio C" first="Carlo" last="Citterio">Carlo Citterio</name>
<name sortKey="De Benedictis, Paola" sort="De Benedictis, Paola" uniqKey="De Benedictis P" first="Paola" last="De Benedictis">Paola De Benedictis</name>
<name sortKey="Lorenzetto, Monica" sort="Lorenzetto, Monica" uniqKey="Lorenzetto M" first="Monica" last="Lorenzetto">Monica Lorenzetto</name>
<name sortKey="Obber, Federica" sort="Obber, Federica" uniqKey="Obber F" first="Federica" last="Obber">Federica Obber</name>
<name sortKey="Pozza, Manuela Dalla" sort="Pozza, Manuela Dalla" uniqKey="Pozza M" first="Manuela Dalla" last="Pozza">Manuela Dalla Pozza</name>
</country>
</tree>
</affiliations>
</record>

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