Satellite Derived Forest Phenology and Its Relation with Nephropathia Epidemica in Belgium
Identifieur interne : 000182 ( Pmc/Curation ); précédent : 000181; suivant : 000183Satellite Derived Forest Phenology and Its Relation with Nephropathia Epidemica in Belgium
Auteurs : José Miguel Barrios ; Willem W. Verstraeten ; Piet Maes ; Jan Clement ; Jean-Marie Aerts ; Sara Amirpour Haredasht ; Julie Wambacq ; Katrien Lagrou ; Geneviève Ducoffre ; Marc Van Ranst ; Daniel Berckmans ; Pol CoppinSource :
- International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health [ 1661-7827 ] ; 2010.
Abstract
The connection between nephropathia epidemica (NE) and vegetation dynamics has been emphasized in recent studies. Changing climate has been suggested as a triggering factor of recently observed epidemiologic peaks in reported NE cases. We have investigated whether there is a connection between the NE occurrence pattern in Belgium and specific trends in remotely sensed phenology parameters of broad-leaved forests. The analysis of time series of the MODIS Enhanced Vegetation Index revealed that changes in forest phenology, considered in literature as an effect of climate change, may affect the mechanics of NE transmission.
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DOI: 10.3390/ijerph7062486
PubMed: 20644685
PubMed Central: 2905562
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<record><TEI><teiHeader><fileDesc><titleStmt><title xml:lang="en">Satellite Derived Forest Phenology and Its Relation with Nephropathia Epidemica in Belgium</title><author><name sortKey="Barrios, Jose Miguel" sort="Barrios, Jose Miguel" uniqKey="Barrios J" first="José Miguel" last="Barrios">José Miguel Barrios</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="af1-ijerph-07-02486"> Biosystems Department, M3-BIORES, Katholieke Universiteit Leuven, Willem de Croylaan 34, B-3001 Leuven, Belgium; E-Mails:<email>willem.verstraeten@biw.kuleuven.be</email> (W.W.V.);<email>jean-marie.aerts@biw.kuleuven.be</email> (J.-M.A.);<email>sara.amirpourharedasht@biw.kuleuven.be</email> (S.A.H.);<email>daniel.berckmans@biw.kuleuven.be</email> (D.B.);<email>pol.coppin@biw.kuleuven.be</email> (P.C.)</nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Verstraeten, Willem W" sort="Verstraeten, Willem W" uniqKey="Verstraeten W" first="Willem W." last="Verstraeten">Willem W. Verstraeten</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="af1-ijerph-07-02486"> Biosystems Department, M3-BIORES, Katholieke Universiteit Leuven, Willem de Croylaan 34, B-3001 Leuven, Belgium; E-Mails:<email>willem.verstraeten@biw.kuleuven.be</email> (W.W.V.);<email>jean-marie.aerts@biw.kuleuven.be</email> (J.-M.A.);<email>sara.amirpourharedasht@biw.kuleuven.be</email> (S.A.H.);<email>daniel.berckmans@biw.kuleuven.be</email> (D.B.);<email>pol.coppin@biw.kuleuven.be</email> (P.C.)</nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Maes, Piet" sort="Maes, Piet" uniqKey="Maes P" first="Piet" last="Maes">Piet Maes</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="af2-ijerph-07-02486"> Laboratory of Clinical Virology, Hantavirus Reference Center, Rega Institute, Katholieke Universiteit Leuven, Minderbroederstraat 10, B-3000 Leuven, Belgium; E-Mails:<email>piet.3.maes@uz.kuleuven.ac.be</email> (P.M.);<email>jan.clement@uz.kuleuven.ac.be</email> (J.C.);<email>julie.wambacq@biw.kuleuven.be</email> (J.W.);<email>Marc.Vanranst@uz.kuleuven.ac.be</email> (M.V.R.)</nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Clement, Jan" sort="Clement, Jan" uniqKey="Clement J" first="Jan" last="Clement">Jan Clement</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="af2-ijerph-07-02486"> Laboratory of Clinical Virology, Hantavirus Reference Center, Rega Institute, Katholieke Universiteit Leuven, Minderbroederstraat 10, B-3000 Leuven, Belgium; E-Mails:<email>piet.3.maes@uz.kuleuven.ac.be</email> (P.M.);<email>jan.clement@uz.kuleuven.ac.be</email> (J.C.);<email>julie.wambacq@biw.kuleuven.be</email> (J.W.);<email>Marc.Vanranst@uz.kuleuven.ac.be</email> (M.V.R.)</nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Aerts, Jean Marie" sort="Aerts, Jean Marie" uniqKey="Aerts J" first="Jean-Marie" last="Aerts">Jean-Marie Aerts</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="af1-ijerph-07-02486"> Biosystems Department, M3-BIORES, Katholieke Universiteit Leuven, Willem de Croylaan 34, B-3001 Leuven, Belgium; E-Mails:<email>willem.verstraeten@biw.kuleuven.be</email> (W.W.V.);<email>jean-marie.aerts@biw.kuleuven.be</email> (J.-M.A.);<email>sara.amirpourharedasht@biw.kuleuven.be</email> (S.A.H.);<email>daniel.berckmans@biw.kuleuven.be</email> (D.B.);<email>pol.coppin@biw.kuleuven.be</email> (P.C.)</nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Haredasht, Sara Amirpour" sort="Haredasht, Sara Amirpour" uniqKey="Haredasht S" first="Sara Amirpour" last="Haredasht">Sara Amirpour Haredasht</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="af1-ijerph-07-02486"> Biosystems Department, M3-BIORES, Katholieke Universiteit Leuven, Willem de Croylaan 34, B-3001 Leuven, Belgium; E-Mails:<email>willem.verstraeten@biw.kuleuven.be</email> (W.W.V.);<email>jean-marie.aerts@biw.kuleuven.be</email> (J.-M.A.);<email>sara.amirpourharedasht@biw.kuleuven.be</email> (S.A.H.);<email>daniel.berckmans@biw.kuleuven.be</email> (D.B.);<email>pol.coppin@biw.kuleuven.be</email> (P.C.)</nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Wambacq, Julie" sort="Wambacq, Julie" uniqKey="Wambacq J" first="Julie" last="Wambacq">Julie Wambacq</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="af2-ijerph-07-02486"> Laboratory of Clinical Virology, Hantavirus Reference Center, Rega Institute, Katholieke Universiteit Leuven, Minderbroederstraat 10, B-3000 Leuven, Belgium; E-Mails:<email>piet.3.maes@uz.kuleuven.ac.be</email> (P.M.);<email>jan.clement@uz.kuleuven.ac.be</email> (J.C.);<email>julie.wambacq@biw.kuleuven.be</email> (J.W.);<email>Marc.Vanranst@uz.kuleuven.ac.be</email> (M.V.R.)</nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Lagrou, Katrien" sort="Lagrou, Katrien" uniqKey="Lagrou K" first="Katrien" last="Lagrou">Katrien Lagrou</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="af3-ijerph-07-02486"> Department of Experimental Laboratory Medicine, Katholieke Universiteit Leuven, Herestraat 49, B-3000 Leuven, Belgium; E-Mail:<email>katrien.lagrou@uz.kuleuven.ac.be</email></nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Ducoffre, Genevieve" sort="Ducoffre, Genevieve" uniqKey="Ducoffre G" first="Geneviève" last="Ducoffre">Geneviève Ducoffre</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="af4-ijerph-07-02486"> Scientific Institute of Public Health, Epidemiology, Juliette Wytsmanstraat 14, B-1050 Brussels, Belgium; E-Mail:<email>gducoffre@iph.fgov.be</email></nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Van Ranst, Marc" sort="Van Ranst, Marc" uniqKey="Van Ranst M" first="Marc" last="Van Ranst">Marc Van Ranst</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="af2-ijerph-07-02486"> Laboratory of Clinical Virology, Hantavirus Reference Center, Rega Institute, Katholieke Universiteit Leuven, Minderbroederstraat 10, B-3000 Leuven, Belgium; E-Mails:<email>piet.3.maes@uz.kuleuven.ac.be</email> (P.M.);<email>jan.clement@uz.kuleuven.ac.be</email> (J.C.);<email>julie.wambacq@biw.kuleuven.be</email> (J.W.);<email>Marc.Vanranst@uz.kuleuven.ac.be</email> (M.V.R.)</nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Berckmans, Daniel" sort="Berckmans, Daniel" uniqKey="Berckmans D" first="Daniel" last="Berckmans">Daniel Berckmans</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="af1-ijerph-07-02486"> Biosystems Department, M3-BIORES, Katholieke Universiteit Leuven, Willem de Croylaan 34, B-3001 Leuven, Belgium; E-Mails:<email>willem.verstraeten@biw.kuleuven.be</email> (W.W.V.);<email>jean-marie.aerts@biw.kuleuven.be</email> (J.-M.A.);<email>sara.amirpourharedasht@biw.kuleuven.be</email> (S.A.H.);<email>daniel.berckmans@biw.kuleuven.be</email> (D.B.);<email>pol.coppin@biw.kuleuven.be</email> (P.C.)</nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Coppin, Pol" sort="Coppin, Pol" uniqKey="Coppin P" first="Pol" last="Coppin">Pol Coppin</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="af1-ijerph-07-02486"> Biosystems Department, M3-BIORES, Katholieke Universiteit Leuven, Willem de Croylaan 34, B-3001 Leuven, Belgium; E-Mails:<email>willem.verstraeten@biw.kuleuven.be</email> (W.W.V.);<email>jean-marie.aerts@biw.kuleuven.be</email> (J.-M.A.);<email>sara.amirpourharedasht@biw.kuleuven.be</email> (S.A.H.);<email>daniel.berckmans@biw.kuleuven.be</email> (D.B.);<email>pol.coppin@biw.kuleuven.be</email> (P.C.)</nlm:aff></affiliation></author></titleStmt><publicationStmt><idno type="wicri:source">PMC</idno><idno type="pmid">20644685</idno><idno type="pmc">2905562</idno><idno type="url">http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2905562</idno><idno type="RBID">PMC:2905562</idno><idno type="doi">10.3390/ijerph7062486</idno><date when="2010">2010</date><idno type="wicri:Area/Pmc/Corpus">000182</idno><idno type="wicri:explorRef" wicri:stream="Pmc" wicri:step="Corpus" wicri:corpus="PMC">000182</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/Pmc/Curation">000182</idno><idno type="wicri:explorRef" wicri:stream="Pmc" wicri:step="Curation">000182</idno></publicationStmt><sourceDesc><biblStruct><analytic><title xml:lang="en" level="a" type="main">Satellite Derived Forest Phenology and Its Relation with Nephropathia Epidemica in Belgium</title><author><name sortKey="Barrios, Jose Miguel" sort="Barrios, Jose Miguel" uniqKey="Barrios J" first="José Miguel" last="Barrios">José Miguel Barrios</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="af1-ijerph-07-02486"> Biosystems Department, M3-BIORES, Katholieke Universiteit Leuven, Willem de Croylaan 34, B-3001 Leuven, Belgium; E-Mails:<email>willem.verstraeten@biw.kuleuven.be</email> (W.W.V.);<email>jean-marie.aerts@biw.kuleuven.be</email> (J.-M.A.);<email>sara.amirpourharedasht@biw.kuleuven.be</email> (S.A.H.);<email>daniel.berckmans@biw.kuleuven.be</email> (D.B.);<email>pol.coppin@biw.kuleuven.be</email> (P.C.)</nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Verstraeten, Willem W" sort="Verstraeten, Willem W" uniqKey="Verstraeten W" first="Willem W." last="Verstraeten">Willem W. Verstraeten</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="af1-ijerph-07-02486"> Biosystems Department, M3-BIORES, Katholieke Universiteit Leuven, Willem de Croylaan 34, B-3001 Leuven, Belgium; E-Mails:<email>willem.verstraeten@biw.kuleuven.be</email> (W.W.V.);<email>jean-marie.aerts@biw.kuleuven.be</email> (J.-M.A.);<email>sara.amirpourharedasht@biw.kuleuven.be</email> (S.A.H.);<email>daniel.berckmans@biw.kuleuven.be</email> (D.B.);<email>pol.coppin@biw.kuleuven.be</email> (P.C.)</nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Maes, Piet" sort="Maes, Piet" uniqKey="Maes P" first="Piet" last="Maes">Piet Maes</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="af2-ijerph-07-02486"> Laboratory of Clinical Virology, Hantavirus Reference Center, Rega Institute, Katholieke Universiteit Leuven, Minderbroederstraat 10, B-3000 Leuven, Belgium; E-Mails:<email>piet.3.maes@uz.kuleuven.ac.be</email> (P.M.);<email>jan.clement@uz.kuleuven.ac.be</email> (J.C.);<email>julie.wambacq@biw.kuleuven.be</email> (J.W.);<email>Marc.Vanranst@uz.kuleuven.ac.be</email> (M.V.R.)</nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Clement, Jan" sort="Clement, Jan" uniqKey="Clement J" first="Jan" last="Clement">Jan Clement</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="af2-ijerph-07-02486"> Laboratory of Clinical Virology, Hantavirus Reference Center, Rega Institute, Katholieke Universiteit Leuven, Minderbroederstraat 10, B-3000 Leuven, Belgium; E-Mails:<email>piet.3.maes@uz.kuleuven.ac.be</email> (P.M.);<email>jan.clement@uz.kuleuven.ac.be</email> (J.C.);<email>julie.wambacq@biw.kuleuven.be</email> (J.W.);<email>Marc.Vanranst@uz.kuleuven.ac.be</email> (M.V.R.)</nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Aerts, Jean Marie" sort="Aerts, Jean Marie" uniqKey="Aerts J" first="Jean-Marie" last="Aerts">Jean-Marie Aerts</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="af1-ijerph-07-02486"> Biosystems Department, M3-BIORES, Katholieke Universiteit Leuven, Willem de Croylaan 34, B-3001 Leuven, Belgium; E-Mails:<email>willem.verstraeten@biw.kuleuven.be</email> (W.W.V.);<email>jean-marie.aerts@biw.kuleuven.be</email> (J.-M.A.);<email>sara.amirpourharedasht@biw.kuleuven.be</email> (S.A.H.);<email>daniel.berckmans@biw.kuleuven.be</email> (D.B.);<email>pol.coppin@biw.kuleuven.be</email> (P.C.)</nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Haredasht, Sara Amirpour" sort="Haredasht, Sara Amirpour" uniqKey="Haredasht S" first="Sara Amirpour" last="Haredasht">Sara Amirpour Haredasht</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="af1-ijerph-07-02486"> Biosystems Department, M3-BIORES, Katholieke Universiteit Leuven, Willem de Croylaan 34, B-3001 Leuven, Belgium; E-Mails:<email>willem.verstraeten@biw.kuleuven.be</email> (W.W.V.);<email>jean-marie.aerts@biw.kuleuven.be</email> (J.-M.A.);<email>sara.amirpourharedasht@biw.kuleuven.be</email> (S.A.H.);<email>daniel.berckmans@biw.kuleuven.be</email> (D.B.);<email>pol.coppin@biw.kuleuven.be</email> (P.C.)</nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Wambacq, Julie" sort="Wambacq, Julie" uniqKey="Wambacq J" first="Julie" last="Wambacq">Julie Wambacq</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="af2-ijerph-07-02486"> Laboratory of Clinical Virology, Hantavirus Reference Center, Rega Institute, Katholieke Universiteit Leuven, Minderbroederstraat 10, B-3000 Leuven, Belgium; E-Mails:<email>piet.3.maes@uz.kuleuven.ac.be</email> (P.M.);<email>jan.clement@uz.kuleuven.ac.be</email> (J.C.);<email>julie.wambacq@biw.kuleuven.be</email> (J.W.);<email>Marc.Vanranst@uz.kuleuven.ac.be</email> (M.V.R.)</nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Lagrou, Katrien" sort="Lagrou, Katrien" uniqKey="Lagrou K" first="Katrien" last="Lagrou">Katrien Lagrou</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="af3-ijerph-07-02486"> Department of Experimental Laboratory Medicine, Katholieke Universiteit Leuven, Herestraat 49, B-3000 Leuven, Belgium; E-Mail:<email>katrien.lagrou@uz.kuleuven.ac.be</email></nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Ducoffre, Genevieve" sort="Ducoffre, Genevieve" uniqKey="Ducoffre G" first="Geneviève" last="Ducoffre">Geneviève Ducoffre</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="af4-ijerph-07-02486"> Scientific Institute of Public Health, Epidemiology, Juliette Wytsmanstraat 14, B-1050 Brussels, Belgium; E-Mail:<email>gducoffre@iph.fgov.be</email></nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Van Ranst, Marc" sort="Van Ranst, Marc" uniqKey="Van Ranst M" first="Marc" last="Van Ranst">Marc Van Ranst</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="af2-ijerph-07-02486"> Laboratory of Clinical Virology, Hantavirus Reference Center, Rega Institute, Katholieke Universiteit Leuven, Minderbroederstraat 10, B-3000 Leuven, Belgium; E-Mails:<email>piet.3.maes@uz.kuleuven.ac.be</email> (P.M.);<email>jan.clement@uz.kuleuven.ac.be</email> (J.C.);<email>julie.wambacq@biw.kuleuven.be</email> (J.W.);<email>Marc.Vanranst@uz.kuleuven.ac.be</email> (M.V.R.)</nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Berckmans, Daniel" sort="Berckmans, Daniel" uniqKey="Berckmans D" first="Daniel" last="Berckmans">Daniel Berckmans</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="af1-ijerph-07-02486"> Biosystems Department, M3-BIORES, Katholieke Universiteit Leuven, Willem de Croylaan 34, B-3001 Leuven, Belgium; E-Mails:<email>willem.verstraeten@biw.kuleuven.be</email> (W.W.V.);<email>jean-marie.aerts@biw.kuleuven.be</email> (J.-M.A.);<email>sara.amirpourharedasht@biw.kuleuven.be</email> (S.A.H.);<email>daniel.berckmans@biw.kuleuven.be</email> (D.B.);<email>pol.coppin@biw.kuleuven.be</email> (P.C.)</nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Coppin, Pol" sort="Coppin, Pol" uniqKey="Coppin P" first="Pol" last="Coppin">Pol Coppin</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="af1-ijerph-07-02486"> Biosystems Department, M3-BIORES, Katholieke Universiteit Leuven, Willem de Croylaan 34, B-3001 Leuven, Belgium; E-Mails:<email>willem.verstraeten@biw.kuleuven.be</email> (W.W.V.);<email>jean-marie.aerts@biw.kuleuven.be</email> (J.-M.A.);<email>sara.amirpourharedasht@biw.kuleuven.be</email> (S.A.H.);<email>daniel.berckmans@biw.kuleuven.be</email> (D.B.);<email>pol.coppin@biw.kuleuven.be</email> (P.C.)</nlm:aff></affiliation></author></analytic><series><title level="j">International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health</title><idno type="ISSN">1661-7827</idno><idno type="eISSN">1660-4601</idno><imprint><date when="2010">2010</date></imprint></series></biblStruct></sourceDesc></fileDesc><profileDesc><textClass></textClass></profileDesc></teiHeader><front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en"><p>The connection between nephropathia epidemica (NE) and vegetation dynamics has been emphasized in recent studies. Changing climate has been suggested as a triggering factor of recently observed epidemiologic peaks in reported NE cases. We have investigated whether there is a connection between the NE occurrence pattern in Belgium and specific trends in remotely sensed phenology parameters of broad-leaved forests. The analysis of time series of the MODIS Enhanced Vegetation Index revealed that changes in forest phenology, considered in literature as an effect of climate change, may affect the mechanics of NE transmission.</p></div></front><back><div1 type="bibliography"><listBibl><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Maes, P" uniqKey="Maes P">P Maes</name></author><author><name sortKey="Clement, J" uniqKey="Clement J">J Clement</name></author><author><name sortKey="Gavrilovskaya, I" uniqKey="Gavrilovskaya I">I Gavrilovskaya</name></author><author><name sortKey="Van Ranst, M" uniqKey="Van Ranst M">M Van Ranst</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Escutenaire, S" uniqKey="Escutenaire S">S Escutenaire</name></author><author><name sortKey="Chalon, P" uniqKey="Chalon P">P Chalon</name></author><author><name sortKey="Verhagen, R" uniqKey="Verhagen R">R Verhagen</name></author><author><name sortKey="Heyman, P" uniqKey="Heyman P">P Heyman</name></author><author><name sortKey="Thomas, I" uniqKey="Thomas I">I Thomas</name></author><author><name sortKey="Karelle Bui, L" uniqKey="Karelle Bui L">L Karelle-Bui</name></author><author><name sortKey="Avsic Zupanc, T" uniqKey="Avsic Zupanc T">T Avsic-Zupanc</name></author><author><name sortKey="Lundkvist, A" uniqKey="Lundkvist A">A Lundkvist</name></author><author><name sortKey="Pluysnin, A" uniqKey="Pluysnin A">A Pluysnin</name></author><author><name sortKey="Pastoret, P" uniqKey="Pastoret P">P Pastoret</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Heyman, P" uniqKey="Heyman P">P Heyman</name></author><author><name sortKey="Van Mele, R" uniqKey="Van Mele R">R Van Mele</name></author><author><name sortKey="Smajlovic, L" uniqKey="Smajlovic L">L Smajlovic</name></author><author><name sortKey="Dobly, A" uniqKey="Dobly A">A Dobly</name></author><author><name sortKey="Cochez, C" uniqKey="Cochez C">C Cochez</name></author><author><name 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<front><journal-meta><journal-id journal-id-type="nlm-ta">Int J Environ Res Public Health</journal-id><journal-id journal-id-type="publisher-id">101238455</journal-id><journal-title-group><journal-title>International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health</journal-title></journal-title-group><issn pub-type="ppub">1661-7827</issn><issn pub-type="epub">1660-4601</issn><publisher><publisher-name>Molecular Diversity Preservation International (MDPI)</publisher-name></publisher></journal-meta><article-meta><article-id pub-id-type="pmid">20644685</article-id><article-id pub-id-type="pmc">2905562</article-id><article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.3390/ijerph7062486</article-id><article-id pub-id-type="publisher-id">ijerph-07-02486</article-id><article-categories><subj-group subj-group-type="heading"><subject>Article</subject></subj-group></article-categories><title-group><article-title>Satellite Derived Forest Phenology and Its Relation with Nephropathia Epidemica in Belgium</article-title></title-group><contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Barrios</surname><given-names>José Miguel</given-names></name><xref ref-type="aff" rid="af1-ijerph-07-02486">1</xref><xref ref-type="corresp" rid="c1-ijerph-07-02486">*</xref></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Verstraeten</surname><given-names>Willem W.</given-names></name><xref ref-type="aff" rid="af1-ijerph-07-02486">1</xref></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Maes</surname><given-names>Piet</given-names></name><xref ref-type="aff" rid="af2-ijerph-07-02486">2</xref></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Clement</surname><given-names>Jan</given-names></name><xref ref-type="aff" rid="af2-ijerph-07-02486">2</xref></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Aerts</surname><given-names>Jean-Marie</given-names></name><xref ref-type="aff" rid="af1-ijerph-07-02486">1</xref></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Haredasht</surname><given-names>Sara Amirpour</given-names></name><xref ref-type="aff" rid="af1-ijerph-07-02486">1</xref></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Wambacq</surname><given-names>Julie</given-names></name><xref ref-type="aff" rid="af2-ijerph-07-02486">2</xref></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Lagrou</surname><given-names>Katrien</given-names></name><xref ref-type="aff" rid="af3-ijerph-07-02486">3</xref></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Ducoffre</surname><given-names>Geneviève</given-names></name><xref ref-type="aff" rid="af4-ijerph-07-02486">4</xref></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Van Ranst</surname><given-names>Marc</given-names></name><xref ref-type="aff" rid="af2-ijerph-07-02486">2</xref></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Berckmans</surname><given-names>Daniel</given-names></name><xref ref-type="aff" rid="af1-ijerph-07-02486">1</xref></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Coppin</surname><given-names>Pol</given-names></name><xref ref-type="aff" rid="af1-ijerph-07-02486">1</xref></contrib></contrib-group><aff id="af1-ijerph-07-02486"><label>1</label> Biosystems Department, M3-BIORES, Katholieke Universiteit Leuven, Willem de Croylaan 34, B-3001 Leuven, Belgium; E-Mails:<email>willem.verstraeten@biw.kuleuven.be</email> (W.W.V.);<email>jean-marie.aerts@biw.kuleuven.be</email> (J.-M.A.);<email>sara.amirpourharedasht@biw.kuleuven.be</email> (S.A.H.);<email>daniel.berckmans@biw.kuleuven.be</email> (D.B.);<email>pol.coppin@biw.kuleuven.be</email> (P.C.)</aff><aff id="af2-ijerph-07-02486"><label>2</label> Laboratory of Clinical Virology, Hantavirus Reference Center, Rega Institute, Katholieke Universiteit Leuven, Minderbroederstraat 10, B-3000 Leuven, Belgium; E-Mails:<email>piet.3.maes@uz.kuleuven.ac.be</email> (P.M.);<email>jan.clement@uz.kuleuven.ac.be</email> (J.C.);<email>julie.wambacq@biw.kuleuven.be</email> (J.W.);<email>Marc.Vanranst@uz.kuleuven.ac.be</email> (M.V.R.)</aff><aff id="af3-ijerph-07-02486"><label>3</label> Department of Experimental Laboratory Medicine, Katholieke Universiteit Leuven, Herestraat 49, B-3000 Leuven, Belgium; E-Mail:<email>katrien.lagrou@uz.kuleuven.ac.be</email></aff><aff id="af4-ijerph-07-02486"><label>4</label> Scientific Institute of Public Health, Epidemiology, Juliette Wytsmanstraat 14, B-1050 Brussels, Belgium; E-Mail:<email>gducoffre@iph.fgov.be</email></aff><author-notes><corresp id="c1-ijerph-07-02486"><label>*</label> Author to whom correspondence should be addressed; E-Mail: <email>miguel.barrios@biw.kuleuven.be</email>; Tel.: +32-16-329751; Fax: +32-16-322966.</corresp></author-notes><pub-date pub-type="ppub"><month>6</month><year>2010</year></pub-date><pub-date pub-type="epub"><day>9</day><month>6</month><year>2010</year></pub-date><volume>7</volume><issue>6</issue><fpage>2486</fpage><lpage>2500</lpage><history><date date-type="received"><day>17</day><month>5</month><year>2010</year></date><date date-type="accepted"><day>7</day><month>6</month><year>2010</year></date></history><permissions><copyright-statement>© 2007 by the authors; licensee Molecular Diversity Preservation International, Basel, Switzerland.</copyright-statement><copyright-year>2007</copyright-year><license license-type="open-access" xlink:href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0"><license-p><pmc-comment>CREATIVE COMMONS</pmc-comment>This article is an open-access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution license (<ext-link ext-link-type="uri" xlink:href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/">http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/</ext-link>).</license-p></license></permissions><abstract><p>The connection between nephropathia epidemica (NE) and vegetation dynamics has been emphasized in recent studies. Changing climate has been suggested as a triggering factor of recently observed epidemiologic peaks in reported NE cases. We have investigated whether there is a connection between the NE occurrence pattern in Belgium and specific trends in remotely sensed phenology parameters of broad-leaved forests. The analysis of time series of the MODIS Enhanced Vegetation Index revealed that changes in forest phenology, considered in literature as an effect of climate change, may affect the mechanics of NE transmission.</p></abstract><kwd-group><kwd>nephropathia epidemica</kwd><kwd>hantavirus</kwd><kwd>forest phenology</kwd><kwd>remote sensing</kwd><kwd>bank vole</kwd></kwd-group></article-meta></front><floats-group><fig id="f1-ijerph-07-02486" position="float"><label>Figure 1.</label><caption><p>Number of NE reported cases in the different Belgian regions for the period 1996–2008 [<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="b24-ijerph-07-02486">24</xref>].</p></caption><graphic xlink:href="ijerph-07-02486f1"></graphic></fig><fig id="f2-ijerph-07-02486" position="float"><label>Figure 2.</label><caption><p>Sampled BLF areas in Belgium and France.</p></caption><graphic xlink:href="ijerph-07-02486f2"></graphic></fig><fig id="f3-ijerph-07-02486" position="float"><label>Figure 3.</label><caption><p>Climatogram (A) and Monthly average sun hours (B) in Belgium based on meteorological data for the period 1971–2000 [<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="b28-ijerph-07-02486">28</xref>].</p></caption><graphic xlink:href="ijerph-07-02486f3"></graphic><graphic xlink:href="ijerph-07-02486f3a"></graphic></fig><fig id="f4-ijerph-07-02486" position="float"><label>Figure 4.</label><caption><p>Length of growing season (LGS)—in periods of 15 days- and amplitude of EVI signal for the period 2001–2008 in 10 BLF areas in Belgium and France.</p></caption><graphic xlink:href="ijerph-07-02486f4"></graphic><graphic xlink:href="ijerph-07-02486f4a"></graphic></fig><fig id="f5-ijerph-07-02486" position="float"><label>Figure 5.</label><caption><p>Annual rate of increase/rate of decrease ratio for the period 2002–2008 for 10 BLF sites in Belgium and France.</p></caption><graphic xlink:href="ijerph-07-02486f5"></graphic></fig><fig id="f6-ijerph-07-02486" position="float"><label>Figure 6.</label><caption><p>Average temperature (°C) (continuous line) and precipitation (gray bars) per quarter in the period 2000–2008 in the meteorological stations Forges (Chimay). Averages were estimated from records for the period 1980–2008: Mean temperature is the interrupted line; mean precipitation is the black bar.</p></caption><graphic xlink:href="ijerph-07-02486f6"></graphic></fig><table-wrap id="t1-ijerph-07-02486" position="float"><label>Table 1.</label><caption><p>Slope and p statistic for linear fitting of LGS values for the period 2001–2007.</p></caption><table frame="hsides" rules="cols"><thead><tr><th align="center" valign="top" rowspan="1" colspan="1"><bold>Site</bold></th><th align="center" valign="top" rowspan="1" colspan="1"><bold>Slope</bold></th><th align="center" valign="top" rowspan="1" colspan="1"><bold>p</bold></th><th align="center" valign="top" rowspan="1" colspan="1"><bold>Site</bold></th><th align="center" valign="top" rowspan="1" colspan="1"><bold>Slope</bold></th><th align="center" valign="top" rowspan="1" colspan="1"><bold>p</bold></th></tr><tr><th align="center" valign="top" colspan="6" rowspan="1"><hr></hr></th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td align="left" valign="top" rowspan="1" colspan="1">1. Leglise</td><td align="center" valign="top" rowspan="1" colspan="1">0.3525</td><td align="center" valign="top" rowspan="1" colspan="1">0.04324<xref ref-type="table-fn" rid="tfn1-ijerph-07-02486">*</xref></td><td align="left" valign="top" rowspan="1" colspan="1">6. Saint-Hubert</td><td align="center" valign="top" rowspan="1" colspan="1">0.4432</td><td align="center" valign="top" rowspan="1" colspan="1">0.0162<xref ref-type="table-fn" rid="tfn1-ijerph-07-02486">*</xref></td></tr><tr><td align="left" valign="top" rowspan="1" colspan="1">2. Virton (North)</td><td align="center" valign="top" rowspan="1" colspan="1">0.2089</td><td align="center" valign="top" rowspan="1" colspan="1">0.29213</td><td align="left" valign="top" rowspan="1" colspan="1">7. Wellin</td><td align="center" valign="top" rowspan="1" colspan="1">0.2496</td><td align="center" valign="top" rowspan="1" colspan="1">0.0332<xref ref-type="table-fn" rid="tfn1-ijerph-07-02486">*</xref></td></tr><tr><td align="left" valign="top" rowspan="1" colspan="1">3. Etaille</td><td align="center" valign="top" rowspan="1" colspan="1">0.3943</td><td align="center" valign="top" rowspan="1" colspan="1">0.02538<xref ref-type="table-fn" rid="tfn1-ijerph-07-02486">*</xref></td><td align="left" valign="top" rowspan="1" colspan="1">8. Momignies</td><td align="center" valign="top" rowspan="1" colspan="1">0.2375</td><td align="center" valign="top" rowspan="1" colspan="1">0.2218</td></tr><tr><td align="left" valign="top" rowspan="1" colspan="1">4. Sivry-Rance</td><td align="center" valign="top" rowspan="1" colspan="1">0.1604</td><td align="center" valign="top" rowspan="1" colspan="1">0.39400</td><td align="left" valign="top" rowspan="1" colspan="1">9. Virton (South)</td><td align="center" valign="top" rowspan="1" colspan="1">0.1871</td><td align="center" valign="top" rowspan="1" colspan="1">0.3277</td></tr><tr><td align="left" valign="top" rowspan="1" colspan="1">5. Ardennes (Fr)</td><td align="center" valign="top" rowspan="1" colspan="1">0.2532</td><td align="center" valign="top" rowspan="1" colspan="1">0.21977</td><td align="left" valign="top" rowspan="1" colspan="1">10. Linchamps (Fr)</td><td align="center" valign="top" rowspan="1" colspan="1">0.2496</td><td align="center" valign="top" rowspan="1" colspan="1">0.27595</td></tr></tbody></table><table-wrap-foot><fn id="tfn1-ijerph-07-02486"><label>*</label><p>Hypothesis of slope = 0 rejected when p < 0.05.</p></fn></table-wrap-foot></table-wrap><table-wrap id="t2-ijerph-07-02486" position="float"><label>Table 2.</label><caption><p>General ratings of fruit production in forests. Source: Le Comptoir Forestier/Région Wallonne.</p></caption><table frame="box" rules="all"><thead><tr><th colspan="2" align="center" valign="middle" rowspan="1">Year</th><th align="center" valign="middle" rowspan="1" colspan="1">1995</th><th align="center" valign="middle" rowspan="1" colspan="1">1996</th><th align="center" valign="middle" rowspan="1" colspan="1">1997</th><th align="center" valign="middle" rowspan="1" colspan="1">1998</th><th align="center" valign="middle" rowspan="1" colspan="1">1999</th><th align="center" valign="middle" rowspan="1" colspan="1">2000</th><th align="center" valign="middle" rowspan="1" colspan="1">2001</th><th align="center" valign="middle" rowspan="1" colspan="1">2002</th><th align="center" valign="middle" rowspan="1" colspan="1">2003</th><th align="center" valign="middle" rowspan="1" colspan="1">2004</th><th align="center" valign="middle" rowspan="1" colspan="1">2005</th><th align="center" valign="middle" rowspan="1" colspan="1">2006</th><th align="center" valign="middle" rowspan="1" colspan="1">2007</th><th align="center" valign="middle" rowspan="1" colspan="1">2008</th><th align="center" valign="middle" rowspan="1" colspan="1">2009</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td align="center" valign="middle" rowspan="2" colspan="1">Rating</td><td align="center" valign="middle" rowspan="1" colspan="1">Beech</td><td align="center" valign="middle" rowspan="1" colspan="1"><xref ref-type="table-fn" rid="tfn2-ijerph-07-02486">+++</xref></td><td align="center" valign="middle" rowspan="1" colspan="1">o</td><td align="center" valign="middle" rowspan="1" colspan="1">o</td><td align="center" valign="middle" rowspan="1" colspan="1"><xref ref-type="table-fn" rid="tfn3-ijerph-07-02486">++</xref></td><td align="center" valign="middle" rowspan="1" colspan="1">o</td><td align="center" valign="middle" rowspan="1" colspan="1"><xref ref-type="table-fn" rid="tfn2-ijerph-07-02486">+++</xref></td><td align="center" valign="middle" rowspan="1" colspan="1">o</td><td align="center" valign="middle" rowspan="1" colspan="1"><xref ref-type="table-fn" rid="tfn2-ijerph-07-02486">+++</xref></td><td align="center" valign="middle" rowspan="1" colspan="1">o</td><td align="center" valign="middle" rowspan="1" colspan="1"><xref ref-type="table-fn" rid="tfn2-ijerph-07-02486">+++</xref></td><td align="center" valign="middle" rowspan="1" colspan="1">o</td><td align="center" valign="middle" rowspan="1" colspan="1"><xref ref-type="table-fn" rid="tfn2-ijerph-07-02486">+++</xref></td><td align="center" valign="middle" rowspan="1" colspan="1"><xref ref-type="table-fn" rid="tfn4-ijerph-07-02486">+</xref></td><td align="center" valign="middle" rowspan="1" colspan="1">o</td><td align="center" valign="middle" rowspan="1" colspan="1"><xref ref-type="table-fn" rid="tfn4-ijerph-07-02486">+</xref></td></tr><tr><td align="center" valign="middle" rowspan="1" colspan="1">Native oak</td><td align="center" valign="middle" rowspan="1" colspan="1"><xref ref-type="table-fn" rid="tfn2-ijerph-07-02486">+++</xref></td><td align="center" valign="middle" rowspan="1" colspan="1">o</td><td align="center" valign="middle" rowspan="1" colspan="1">o</td><td align="center" valign="middle" rowspan="1" colspan="1"><xref ref-type="table-fn" rid="tfn2-ijerph-07-02486">+++</xref></td><td align="center" valign="middle" rowspan="1" colspan="1">o</td><td align="center" valign="middle" rowspan="1" colspan="1"><xref ref-type="table-fn" rid="tfn2-ijerph-07-02486">+++</xref></td><td align="center" valign="middle" rowspan="1" colspan="1">o</td><td align="center" valign="middle" rowspan="1" colspan="1">o</td><td align="center" valign="middle" rowspan="1" colspan="1">o</td><td align="center" valign="middle" rowspan="1" colspan="1"><xref ref-type="table-fn" rid="tfn2-ijerph-07-02486">+++</xref></td><td align="center" valign="middle" rowspan="1" colspan="1">o</td><td align="center" valign="middle" rowspan="1" colspan="1"><xref ref-type="table-fn" rid="tfn4-ijerph-07-02486">+</xref></td><td align="center" valign="middle" rowspan="1" colspan="1"><xref ref-type="table-fn" rid="tfn2-ijerph-07-02486">+++</xref></td><td align="center" valign="middle" rowspan="1" colspan="1">o</td><td align="center" valign="middle" rowspan="1" colspan="1"><xref ref-type="table-fn" rid="tfn4-ijerph-07-02486">+</xref></td></tr></tbody></table><table-wrap-foot><fn id="tfn2-ijerph-07-02486"><p>+++ = very good year;</p></fn><fn id="tfn3-ijerph-07-02486"><p>++ = good year;</p></fn><fn id="tfn4-ijerph-07-02486"><p>+ = moderate;</p></fn><fn id="tfn5-ijerph-07-02486"><p>weak or absent production = o.</p></fn></table-wrap-foot></table-wrap><table-wrap id="t3-ijerph-07-02486" position="float"><label>Table 3.</label><caption><p>Correlation coefficients (r) for the relations: A. Average temperature in the second quarter and onset date of the growing season, and; B. Average temperature in June and length of the increase phase for the different sites (* = p < 0.05).</p></caption><table frame="box" rules="cols"><thead><tr><th align="center" valign="middle" rowspan="3" colspan="1"><bold>Site</bold></th><th colspan="2" align="center" valign="middle" rowspan="1"><bold>A</bold></th><th colspan="2" align="center" valign="middle" rowspan="1"><bold>B</bold></th><th align="center" valign="middle" rowspan="3" colspan="1"><bold>Site</bold></th><th colspan="2" align="center" valign="middle" rowspan="1"><bold>A</bold></th><th colspan="2" align="center" valign="middle" rowspan="1"><bold>B</bold></th></tr><tr><th colspan="4" align="center" valign="middle" rowspan="1"><hr></hr></th><th colspan="4" align="center" valign="middle" rowspan="1"><hr></hr></th></tr><tr><th align="center" valign="middle" rowspan="1" colspan="1"><bold>r</bold></th><th align="center" valign="middle" rowspan="1" colspan="1"><bold>p</bold></th><th align="center" valign="middle" rowspan="1" colspan="1"><bold>r</bold></th><th align="center" valign="middle" rowspan="1" colspan="1"><bold>p</bold></th><th align="center" valign="middle" rowspan="1" colspan="1"><bold>r</bold></th><th align="center" valign="middle" rowspan="1" colspan="1"><bold>p</bold></th><th align="center" valign="middle" rowspan="1" colspan="1"><bold>r</bold></th><th align="center" valign="middle" rowspan="1" colspan="1"><bold>p</bold></th></tr><tr><th colspan="10" align="center" valign="middle" rowspan="1"><hr></hr></th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td align="center" valign="top" rowspan="1" colspan="1"><bold>1</bold></td><td align="center" valign="top" rowspan="1" colspan="1">−0.628</td><td align="center" valign="top" rowspan="1" colspan="1">0.0952</td><td align="center" valign="top" rowspan="1" colspan="1">0.729</td><td align="center" valign="top" rowspan="1" colspan="1">0.0400*</td><td align="center" valign="top" rowspan="1" colspan="1">6</td><td align="center" valign="top" rowspan="1" colspan="1">−0.364</td><td align="center" valign="top" rowspan="1" colspan="1">0.3749</td><td align="center" valign="top" rowspan="1" colspan="1">0.784</td><td align="center" valign="top" rowspan="1" colspan="1">0.0214*</td></tr><tr><td align="center" valign="top" rowspan="1" colspan="1"><bold>2</bold></td><td align="center" valign="top" rowspan="1" colspan="1">−0.483</td><td align="center" valign="top" rowspan="1" colspan="1">0.2250</td><td align="center" valign="top" rowspan="1" colspan="1">0.732</td><td align="center" valign="top" rowspan="1" colspan="1">0.0391*</td><td align="center" valign="top" rowspan="1" colspan="1">7</td><td align="center" valign="top" rowspan="1" colspan="1">−0.786</td><td align="center" valign="top" rowspan="1" colspan="1">0.0206*</td><td align="center" valign="top" rowspan="1" colspan="1">0.669</td><td align="center" valign="top" rowspan="1" colspan="1">0.0696</td></tr><tr><td align="center" valign="top" rowspan="1" colspan="1"><bold>3</bold></td><td align="center" valign="top" rowspan="1" colspan="1">−0.266</td><td align="center" valign="top" rowspan="1" colspan="1">0.5243</td><td align="center" valign="top" rowspan="1" colspan="1">0.657</td><td align="center" valign="top" rowspan="1" colspan="1">0.0768</td><td align="center" valign="top" rowspan="1" colspan="1">8</td><td align="center" valign="top" rowspan="1" colspan="1">−0.597</td><td align="center" valign="top" rowspan="1" colspan="1">0.1185</td><td align="center" valign="top" rowspan="1" colspan="1">0.709</td><td align="center" valign="top" rowspan="1" colspan="1">0.0487*</td></tr><tr><td align="center" valign="top" rowspan="1" colspan="1"><bold>4</bold></td><td align="center" valign="top" rowspan="1" colspan="1">−0.382</td><td align="center" valign="top" rowspan="1" colspan="1">0.3501</td><td align="center" valign="top" rowspan="1" colspan="1">0.489</td><td align="center" valign="top" rowspan="1" colspan="1">0.2183</td><td align="center" valign="top" rowspan="1" colspan="1">9</td><td align="center" valign="top" rowspan="1" colspan="1">−0.692</td><td align="center" valign="top" rowspan="1" colspan="1">0.0569</td><td align="center" valign="top" rowspan="1" colspan="1">0.669</td><td align="center" valign="top" rowspan="1" colspan="1">0.0696</td></tr><tr><td align="center" valign="top" rowspan="1" colspan="1"><bold>5</bold></td><td align="center" valign="top" rowspan="1" colspan="1">−0.811</td><td align="center" valign="top" rowspan="1" colspan="1">0.0147*</td><td align="center" valign="top" rowspan="1" colspan="1">0.760</td><td align="center" valign="top" rowspan="1" colspan="1">0.0285*</td><td align="center" valign="top" rowspan="1" colspan="1">10</td><td align="center" valign="top" rowspan="1" colspan="1">−0.179</td><td align="center" valign="top" rowspan="1" colspan="1">0.6710</td><td align="center" valign="top" rowspan="1" colspan="1">0.726</td><td align="center" valign="top" rowspan="1" 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