Determinants of influenza transmission in South East Asia: insights from a household cohort study in Vietnam.
Identifieur interne : 003447 ( PubMed/Curation ); précédent : 003446; suivant : 003448Determinants of influenza transmission in South East Asia: insights from a household cohort study in Vietnam.
Auteurs : Simon Cauchemez [Royaume-Uni] ; Neil M. Ferguson [Royaume-Uni] ; Annette Fox [Australie] ; Le Quynh Mai [Viêt Nam] ; Le Thi Thanh [Viêt Nam] ; Pham Quang Thai [Viêt Nam] ; Dang Dinh Thoang [Viêt Nam] ; Tran Nhu Duong [Viêt Nam] ; Le Nguyen Minh Hoa [Viêt Nam] ; Nguyen Tran Hien [Viêt Nam] ; Peter Horby [Viêt Nam]Source :
- PLoS pathogens [ 1553-7374 ] ; 2014.
Descripteurs français
- KwdFr :
- Adolescent, Adulte, Adulte d'âge moyen, Caractéristiques familiales, Enfant, Enfant d'âge préscolaire, Femelle, Grippe humaine (transmission), Grippe humaine (épidémiologie), Humains, Jeune adulte, Modèles statistiques, Mâle, Tests d'inhibition de l'hémagglutination, Vietnam (épidémiologie), Études de cohortes.
- MESH :
English descriptors
- KwdEn :
- MESH :
- geographic , epidemiology : Vietnam.
- epidemiology : Influenza, Human.
- transmission : Influenza, Human.
- Adolescent, Adult, Child, Child, Preschool, Cohort Studies, Family Characteristics, Female, Hemagglutination Inhibition Tests, Humans, Male, Middle Aged, Models, Statistical, Young Adult.
Abstract
To guide control policies, it is important that the determinants of influenza transmission are fully characterized. Such assessment is complex because the risk of influenza infection is multifaceted and depends both on immunity acquired naturally or via vaccination and on the individual level of exposure to influenza in the community or in the household. Here, we analyse a large household cohort study conducted in 2007-2010 in Vietnam using innovative statistical methods to ascertain in an integrative framework the relative contribution of variables that influence the transmission of seasonal (H1N1, H3N2, B) and pandemic H1N1pdm09 influenza. Influenza infection was diagnosed by haemagglutination-inhibition (HI) antibody assay of paired serum samples. We used a Bayesian data augmentation Markov chain Monte Carlo strategy based on digraphs to reconstruct unobserved chains of transmission in households and estimate transmission parameters. The probability of transmission from an infected individual to another household member was 8% (95% CI, 6%, 10%) on average, and varied with pre-season titers, age and household size. Within households of size 3, the probability of transmission from an infected member to a child with low pre-season HI antibody titers was 27% (95% CI 21%-35%). High pre-season HI titers were protective against infection, with a reduction in the hazard of infection of 59% (95% CI, 44%-71%) and 87% (95% CI, 70%-96%) for intermediate (1∶20-1∶40) and high (≥1∶80) HI titers, respectively. Even after correcting for pre-season HI titers, adults had half the infection risk of children. Twenty six percent (95% CI: 21%, 30%) of infections may be attributed to household transmission. Our results highlight the importance of integrated analysis by influenza sub-type, age and pre-season HI titers in order to infer influenza transmission risks in and outside of the household.
DOI: 10.1371/journal.ppat.1004310
PubMed: 25144780
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Ferguson</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>MRC Centre for Outbreak Analysis and Modelling, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">Royaume-Uni</country><wicri:regionArea>MRC Centre for Outbreak Analysis and Modelling, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, London</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Fox, Annette" sort="Fox, Annette" uniqKey="Fox A" first="Annette" last="Fox">Annette Fox</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>Oxford University Clinical Research Unit - Wellcome Trust Major Overseas Programme, Hanoi, Vietnam; Department of Microbiology and Immunology, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Australia.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">Australie</country><wicri:regionArea>Oxford University Clinical Research Unit - Wellcome Trust Major Overseas Programme, Hanoi, Vietnam; Department of Microbiology and Immunology, University of Melbourne, Melbourne</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Mai, Le Quynh" sort="Mai, Le Quynh" uniqKey="Mai L" first="Le Quynh" last="Mai">Le Quynh Mai</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>National Institute of Hygiene and Epidemiology, Hanoi, Vietnam.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">Viêt Nam</country><wicri:regionArea>National Institute of Hygiene and Epidemiology, Hanoi</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Thanh, Le Thi" sort="Thanh, Le Thi" uniqKey="Thanh L" first="Le Thi" last="Thanh">Le Thi Thanh</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>National Institute of Hygiene and Epidemiology, Hanoi, Vietnam.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">Viêt Nam</country><wicri:regionArea>National Institute of Hygiene and Epidemiology, Hanoi</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Thai, Pham Quang" sort="Thai, Pham Quang" uniqKey="Thai P" first="Pham Quang" last="Thai">Pham Quang Thai</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>National Institute of Hygiene and Epidemiology, Hanoi, Vietnam.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">Viêt Nam</country><wicri:regionArea>National Institute of Hygiene and Epidemiology, Hanoi</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Thoang, Dang Dinh" sort="Thoang, Dang Dinh" uniqKey="Thoang D" first="Dang Dinh" last="Thoang">Dang Dinh Thoang</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>Ha Nam Centre for Preventive Medicine, Ha Nam, Vietnam.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">Viêt Nam</country><wicri:regionArea>Ha Nam Centre for Preventive Medicine, Ha Nam</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Duong, Tran Nhu" sort="Duong, Tran Nhu" uniqKey="Duong T" first="Tran Nhu" last="Duong">Tran Nhu Duong</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>National Institute of Hygiene and Epidemiology, Hanoi, Vietnam.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">Viêt Nam</country><wicri:regionArea>National Institute of Hygiene and Epidemiology, Hanoi</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Minh Hoa, Le Nguyen" sort="Minh Hoa, Le Nguyen" uniqKey="Minh Hoa L" first="Le Nguyen" last="Minh Hoa">Le Nguyen Minh Hoa</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>Oxford University Clinical Research Unit - Wellcome Trust Major Overseas Programme, Hanoi, Vietnam.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">Viêt Nam</country><wicri:regionArea>Oxford University Clinical Research Unit - Wellcome Trust Major Overseas Programme, Hanoi</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Tran Hien, Nguyen" sort="Tran Hien, Nguyen" uniqKey="Tran Hien N" first="Nguyen" last="Tran Hien">Nguyen Tran Hien</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>National Institute of Hygiene and Epidemiology, Hanoi, Vietnam.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">Viêt Nam</country><wicri:regionArea>National Institute of Hygiene and Epidemiology, Hanoi</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Horby, Peter" sort="Horby, Peter" uniqKey="Horby P" first="Peter" last="Horby">Peter Horby</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>Oxford University Clinical Research Unit - Wellcome Trust Major Overseas Programme, Hanoi, Vietnam.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">Viêt Nam</country><wicri:regionArea>Oxford University Clinical Research Unit - Wellcome Trust Major Overseas Programme, Hanoi</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author></analytic><series><title level="j">PLoS pathogens</title><idno type="eISSN">1553-7374</idno><imprint><date when="2014" type="published">2014</date></imprint></series></biblStruct></sourceDesc></fileDesc><profileDesc><textClass><keywords scheme="KwdEn" xml:lang="en"><term>Adolescent</term><term>Adult</term><term>Child</term><term>Child, Preschool</term><term>Cohort Studies</term><term>Family Characteristics</term><term>Female</term><term>Hemagglutination Inhibition Tests</term><term>Humans</term><term>Influenza, Human (epidemiology)</term><term>Influenza, Human (transmission)</term><term>Male</term><term>Middle Aged</term><term>Models, Statistical</term><term>Vietnam (epidemiology)</term><term>Young Adult</term></keywords><keywords scheme="KwdFr" xml:lang="fr"><term>Adolescent</term><term>Adulte</term><term>Adulte d'âge moyen</term><term>Caractéristiques familiales</term><term>Enfant</term><term>Enfant d'âge préscolaire</term><term>Femelle</term><term>Grippe humaine (transmission)</term><term>Grippe humaine (épidémiologie)</term><term>Humains</term><term>Jeune adulte</term><term>Modèles statistiques</term><term>Mâle</term><term>Tests d'inhibition de l'hémagglutination</term><term>Vietnam (épidémiologie)</term><term>Études de cohortes</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" type="geographic" qualifier="epidemiology" xml:lang="en"><term>Vietnam</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="epidemiology" xml:lang="en"><term>Influenza, Human</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="transmission" xml:lang="en"><term>Influenza, Human</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="épidémiologie" xml:lang="fr"><term>Grippe humaine</term><term>Vietnam</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" xml:lang="en"><term>Adolescent</term><term>Adult</term><term>Child</term><term>Child, Preschool</term><term>Cohort Studies</term><term>Family Characteristics</term><term>Female</term><term>Hemagglutination Inhibition Tests</term><term>Humans</term><term>Male</term><term>Middle Aged</term><term>Models, Statistical</term><term>Young Adult</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" xml:lang="fr"><term>Adolescent</term><term>Adulte</term><term>Adulte d'âge moyen</term><term>Caractéristiques familiales</term><term>Enfant</term><term>Enfant d'âge préscolaire</term><term>Femelle</term><term>Humains</term><term>Jeune adulte</term><term>Modèles statistiques</term><term>Mâle</term><term>Tests d'inhibition de l'hémagglutination</term><term>Études de cohortes</term></keywords></textClass></profileDesc></teiHeader><front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en">To guide control policies, it is important that the determinants of influenza transmission are fully characterized. Such assessment is complex because the risk of influenza infection is multifaceted and depends both on immunity acquired naturally or via vaccination and on the individual level of exposure to influenza in the community or in the household. Here, we analyse a large household cohort study conducted in 2007-2010 in Vietnam using innovative statistical methods to ascertain in an integrative framework the relative contribution of variables that influence the transmission of seasonal (H1N1, H3N2, B) and pandemic H1N1pdm09 influenza. Influenza infection was diagnosed by haemagglutination-inhibition (HI) antibody assay of paired serum samples. We used a Bayesian data augmentation Markov chain Monte Carlo strategy based on digraphs to reconstruct unobserved chains of transmission in households and estimate transmission parameters. The probability of transmission from an infected individual to another household member was 8% (95% CI, 6%, 10%) on average, and varied with pre-season titers, age and household size. Within households of size 3, the probability of transmission from an infected member to a child with low pre-season HI antibody titers was 27% (95% CI 21%-35%). High pre-season HI titers were protective against infection, with a reduction in the hazard of infection of 59% (95% CI, 44%-71%) and 87% (95% CI, 70%-96%) for intermediate (1∶20-1∶40) and high (≥1∶80) HI titers, respectively. Even after correcting for pre-season HI titers, adults had half the infection risk of children. Twenty six percent (95% CI: 21%, 30%) of infections may be attributed to household transmission. Our results highlight the importance of integrated analysis by influenza sub-type, age and pre-season HI titers in order to infer influenza transmission risks in and outside of the household.</div></front></TEI><pubmed><MedlineCitation Status="MEDLINE" Owner="NLM"><PMID Version="1">25144780</PMID><DateCreated><Year>2014</Year><Month>08</Month><Day>22</Day></DateCreated><DateCompleted><Year>2015</Year><Month>12</Month><Day>21</Day></DateCompleted><DateRevised><Year>2017</Year><Month>02</Month><Day>20</Day></DateRevised><Article PubModel="Electronic-eCollection"><Journal><ISSN IssnType="Electronic">1553-7374</ISSN><JournalIssue CitedMedium="Internet"><Volume>10</Volume><Issue>8</Issue><PubDate><Year>2014</Year><Month>Aug</Month></PubDate></JournalIssue><Title>PLoS pathogens</Title><ISOAbbreviation>PLoS Pathog.</ISOAbbreviation></Journal><ArticleTitle>Determinants of influenza transmission in South East Asia: insights from a household cohort study in Vietnam.</ArticleTitle><Pagination><MedlinePgn>e1004310</MedlinePgn></Pagination><ELocationID EIdType="doi" ValidYN="Y">10.1371/journal.ppat.1004310</ELocationID><Abstract><AbstractText>To guide control policies, it is important that the determinants of influenza transmission are fully characterized. Such assessment is complex because the risk of influenza infection is multifaceted and depends both on immunity acquired naturally or via vaccination and on the individual level of exposure to influenza in the community or in the household. Here, we analyse a large household cohort study conducted in 2007-2010 in Vietnam using innovative statistical methods to ascertain in an integrative framework the relative contribution of variables that influence the transmission of seasonal (H1N1, H3N2, B) and pandemic H1N1pdm09 influenza. Influenza infection was diagnosed by haemagglutination-inhibition (HI) antibody assay of paired serum samples. We used a Bayesian data augmentation Markov chain Monte Carlo strategy based on digraphs to reconstruct unobserved chains of transmission in households and estimate transmission parameters. The probability of transmission from an infected individual to another household member was 8% (95% CI, 6%, 10%) on average, and varied with pre-season titers, age and household size. Within households of size 3, the probability of transmission from an infected member to a child with low pre-season HI antibody titers was 27% (95% CI 21%-35%). High pre-season HI titers were protective against infection, with a reduction in the hazard of infection of 59% (95% CI, 44%-71%) and 87% (95% CI, 70%-96%) for intermediate (1∶20-1∶40) and high (≥1∶80) HI titers, respectively. Even after correcting for pre-season HI titers, adults had half the infection risk of children. Twenty six percent (95% CI: 21%, 30%) of infections may be attributed to household transmission. Our results highlight the importance of integrated analysis by influenza sub-type, age and pre-season HI titers in order to infer influenza transmission risks in and outside of the household.</AbstractText></Abstract><AuthorList CompleteYN="Y"><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Cauchemez</LastName><ForeName>Simon</ForeName><Initials>S</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases Unit, Institut Pasteur, Paris, France; MRC Centre for Outbreak Analysis and Modelling, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Ferguson</LastName><ForeName>Neil M</ForeName><Initials>NM</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>MRC Centre for Outbreak Analysis and Modelling, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Fox</LastName><ForeName>Annette</ForeName><Initials>A</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Oxford University Clinical Research Unit - Wellcome Trust Major Overseas Programme, Hanoi, Vietnam; Department of Microbiology and Immunology, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Australia.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Mai</LastName><ForeName>Le Quynh</ForeName><Initials>le Q</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>National Institute of Hygiene and Epidemiology, Hanoi, Vietnam.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Thanh</LastName><ForeName>Le Thi</ForeName><Initials>le T</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>National Institute of Hygiene and Epidemiology, Hanoi, Vietnam.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Thai</LastName><ForeName>Pham Quang</ForeName><Initials>PQ</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>National Institute of Hygiene and Epidemiology, Hanoi, Vietnam.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Thoang</LastName><ForeName>Dang Dinh</ForeName><Initials>DD</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Ha Nam Centre for Preventive Medicine, Ha Nam, Vietnam.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Duong</LastName><ForeName>Tran Nhu</ForeName><Initials>TN</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>National Institute of Hygiene and Epidemiology, Hanoi, Vietnam.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Minh Hoa</LastName><ForeName>Le Nguyen</ForeName><Initials>le N</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Oxford University Clinical Research Unit - Wellcome Trust Major Overseas Programme, Hanoi, Vietnam.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Tran Hien</LastName><ForeName>Nguyen</ForeName><Initials>N</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>National Institute of Hygiene and Epidemiology, Hanoi, Vietnam.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Horby</LastName><ForeName>Peter</ForeName><Initials>P</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Oxford University Clinical Research Unit - Wellcome Trust Major Overseas Programme, Hanoi, Vietnam.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author></AuthorList><Language>eng</Language><GrantList CompleteYN="Y"><Grant><GrantID>077078/Z/05/Z</GrantID><Agency>Wellcome Trust</Agency><Country>United Kingdom</Country></Grant><Grant><GrantID>081613/Z/06/Z</GrantID><Agency>Wellcome Trust</Agency><Country>United Kingdom</Country></Grant></GrantList><PublicationTypeList><PublicationType UI="D016428">Journal Article</PublicationType><PublicationType UI="D013485">Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't</PublicationType></PublicationTypeList><ArticleDate DateType="Electronic"><Year>2014</Year><Month>08</Month><Day>21</Day></ArticleDate></Article><MedlineJournalInfo><Country>United States</Country><MedlineTA>PLoS 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Studies</DescriptorName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D005191" MajorTopicYN="N">Family Characteristics</DescriptorName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D005260" MajorTopicYN="N">Female</DescriptorName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D006385" MajorTopicYN="N">Hemagglutination Inhibition Tests</DescriptorName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D006801" MajorTopicYN="N">Humans</DescriptorName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D007251" MajorTopicYN="N">Influenza, Human</DescriptorName><QualifierName UI="Q000453" MajorTopicYN="Y">epidemiology</QualifierName><QualifierName UI="Q000635" MajorTopicYN="Y">transmission</QualifierName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D008297" MajorTopicYN="N">Male</DescriptorName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D008875" MajorTopicYN="N">Middle Aged</DescriptorName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D015233" MajorTopicYN="N">Models, Statistical</DescriptorName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D014744" MajorTopicYN="N" Type="Geographic">Vietnam</DescriptorName><QualifierName UI="Q000453" MajorTopicYN="N">epidemiology</QualifierName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D055815" MajorTopicYN="N">Young Adult</DescriptorName></MeshHeading></MeshHeadingList><OtherID Source="NLM">PMC4140851</OtherID></MedlineCitation><PubmedData><History><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="received"><Year>2013</Year><Month>11</Month><Day>27</Day></PubMedPubDate><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="accepted"><Year>2014</Year><Month>06</Month><Day>30</Day></PubMedPubDate><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="entrez"><Year>2014</Year><Month>8</Month><Day>22</Day><Hour>6</Hour><Minute>0</Minute></PubMedPubDate><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="pubmed"><Year>2014</Year><Month>8</Month><Day>22</Day><Hour>6</Hour><Minute>0</Minute></PubMedPubDate><PubMedPubDate 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