Downscaling Pest Risk Analyses: Identifying Current and Future Potentially Suitable Habitats for Parthenium hysterophorus with Particular Reference to Europe and North Africa.
Identifieur interne : 002998 ( PubMed/Corpus ); précédent : 002997; suivant : 002999Downscaling Pest Risk Analyses: Identifying Current and Future Potentially Suitable Habitats for Parthenium hysterophorus with Particular Reference to Europe and North Africa.
Auteurs : Darren J. Kriticos ; Sarah Brunel ; Noboru Ota ; Guillaume Fried ; Alfons G J M. Oude Lansink ; F Dane Panetta ; T V Ramachandra Prasad ; Asad Shabbir ; Tuvia YaacobySource :
- PloS one [ 1932-6203 ] ; 2015.
English descriptors
- KwdEn :
- MESH :
- geographic : Africa, Northern, Europe.
- physiology : Asteraceae.
- Climate Change, Ecosystem, Introduced Species, Models, Theoretical, Risk Assessment.
Abstract
Pest Risk Assessments (PRAs) routinely employ climatic niche models to identify endangered areas. Typically, these models consider only climatic factors, ignoring the 'Swiss Cheese' nature of species ranges due to the interplay of climatic and habitat factors. As part of a PRA conducted for the European and Mediterranean Plant Protection Organization, we developed a climatic niche model for Parthenium hysterophorus, explicitly including the effects of irrigation where it was known to be practiced. We then downscaled the climatic risk model using two different methods to identify the suitable habitat types: expert opinion (following the EPPO PRA guidelines) and inferred from the global spatial distribution. The PRA revealed a substantial risk to the EPPO region and Central and Western Africa, highlighting the desirability of avoiding an invasion by P. hysterophorus. We also consider the effects of climate change on the modelled risks. The climate change scenario indicated the risk of substantial further spread of P. hysterophorus in temperate northern hemisphere regions (North America, Europe and the northern Middle East), and also high elevation equatorial regions (Western Brazil, Central Africa, and South East Asia) if minimum temperatures increase substantially. Downscaling the climate model using habitat factors resulted in substantial (approximately 22-53%) reductions in the areas estimated to be endangered. Applying expert assessments as to suitable habitat classes resulted in the greatest reduction in the estimated endangered area, whereas inferring suitable habitats factors from distribution data identified more land use classes and a larger endangered area. Despite some scaling issues with using a globally conformal Land Use Systems dataset, the inferential downscaling method shows promise as a routine addition to the PRA toolkit, as either a direct model component, or simply as a means of better informing an expert assessment of the suitable habitat types.
DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0132807
PubMed: 26325680
Links to Exploration step
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Kriticos</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>CSIRO, GPO Box 1700, Canberra, ACT, Australia.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Brunel, Sarah" sort="Brunel, Sarah" uniqKey="Brunel S" first="Sarah" last="Brunel">Sarah Brunel</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>European and Mediterranean Plant Protection Organization, Paris, France.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Ota, Noboru" sort="Ota, Noboru" uniqKey="Ota N" first="Noboru" last="Ota">Noboru Ota</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>CSIRO, Private Bag 5, Wembley, WA, Australia.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Fried, Guillaume" sort="Fried, Guillaume" uniqKey="Fried G" first="Guillaume" last="Fried">Guillaume Fried</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Anses, Laboratoire de la Santé des Végétaux, Montferrier-sur-Lez cedex, France.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Oude Lansink, Alfons G J M" sort="Oude Lansink, Alfons G J M" uniqKey="Oude Lansink A" first="Alfons G J M" last="Oude Lansink">Alfons G J M. 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Box 78, Bet-Dagan, Israel.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author></titleStmt><publicationStmt><idno type="wicri:source">PubMed</idno><date when="2015">2015</date><idno type="RBID">pubmed:26325680</idno><idno type="pmid">26325680</idno><idno type="doi">10.1371/journal.pone.0132807</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/PubMed/Corpus">002998</idno><idno type="wicri:explorRef" wicri:stream="PubMed" wicri:step="Corpus" wicri:corpus="PubMed">002998</idno></publicationStmt><sourceDesc><biblStruct><analytic><title xml:lang="en">Downscaling Pest Risk Analyses: Identifying Current and Future Potentially Suitable Habitats for Parthenium hysterophorus with Particular Reference to Europe and North Africa.</title><author><name sortKey="Kriticos, Darren J" sort="Kriticos, Darren J" uniqKey="Kriticos D" first="Darren J" last="Kriticos">Darren J. Kriticos</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>CSIRO, GPO Box 1700, Canberra, ACT, Australia.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Brunel, Sarah" sort="Brunel, Sarah" uniqKey="Brunel S" first="Sarah" last="Brunel">Sarah Brunel</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>European and Mediterranean Plant Protection Organization, Paris, France.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Ota, Noboru" sort="Ota, Noboru" uniqKey="Ota N" first="Noboru" last="Ota">Noboru Ota</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>CSIRO, Private Bag 5, Wembley, WA, Australia.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Fried, Guillaume" sort="Fried, Guillaume" uniqKey="Fried G" first="Guillaume" last="Fried">Guillaume Fried</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Anses, Laboratoire de la Santé des Végétaux, Montferrier-sur-Lez cedex, France.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Oude Lansink, Alfons G J M" sort="Oude Lansink, Alfons G J M" uniqKey="Oude Lansink A" first="Alfons G J M" last="Oude Lansink">Alfons G J M. Oude Lansink</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Wageningen University, PO Box 8130, Wageningen, The Netherlands.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Panetta, F Dane" sort="Panetta, F Dane" uniqKey="Panetta F" first="F Dane" last="Panetta">F Dane Panetta</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>The University of Melbourne, Parkville, VIC, Australia.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Prasad, T V Ramachandra" sort="Prasad, T V Ramachandra" uniqKey="Prasad T" first="T V Ramachandra" last="Prasad">T V Ramachandra Prasad</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Directorate of Weed Science Research Centre, University of Agricultural Sciences, Bengaluru, India.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Shabbir, Asad" sort="Shabbir, Asad" uniqKey="Shabbir A" first="Asad" last="Shabbir">Asad Shabbir</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Department of Botany, University of the Punjab, Lahore, Pakistan.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Yaacoby, Tuvia" sort="Yaacoby, Tuvia" uniqKey="Yaacoby T" first="Tuvia" last="Yaacoby">Tuvia Yaacoby</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Plant Protection and Inspection Services, Bet Dagan Agricultural Center, Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development, P.O. Box 78, Bet-Dagan, Israel.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author></analytic><series><title level="j">PloS one</title><idno type="eISSN">1932-6203</idno><imprint><date when="2015" type="published">2015</date></imprint></series></biblStruct></sourceDesc></fileDesc><profileDesc><textClass><keywords scheme="KwdEn" xml:lang="en"><term>Africa, Northern</term><term>Asteraceae (physiology)</term><term>Climate Change</term><term>Ecosystem</term><term>Europe</term><term>Introduced Species</term><term>Models, Theoretical</term><term>Risk Assessment</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" type="geographic" xml:lang="en"><term>Africa, Northern</term><term>Europe</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="physiology" xml:lang="en"><term>Asteraceae</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" xml:lang="en"><term>Climate Change</term><term>Ecosystem</term><term>Introduced Species</term><term>Models, Theoretical</term><term>Risk Assessment</term></keywords></textClass></profileDesc></teiHeader><front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en">Pest Risk Assessments (PRAs) routinely employ climatic niche models to identify endangered areas. Typically, these models consider only climatic factors, ignoring the 'Swiss Cheese' nature of species ranges due to the interplay of climatic and habitat factors. As part of a PRA conducted for the European and Mediterranean Plant Protection Organization, we developed a climatic niche model for Parthenium hysterophorus, explicitly including the effects of irrigation where it was known to be practiced. We then downscaled the climatic risk model using two different methods to identify the suitable habitat types: expert opinion (following the EPPO PRA guidelines) and inferred from the global spatial distribution. The PRA revealed a substantial risk to the EPPO region and Central and Western Africa, highlighting the desirability of avoiding an invasion by P. hysterophorus. We also consider the effects of climate change on the modelled risks. The climate change scenario indicated the risk of substantial further spread of P. hysterophorus in temperate northern hemisphere regions (North America, Europe and the northern Middle East), and also high elevation equatorial regions (Western Brazil, Central Africa, and South East Asia) if minimum temperatures increase substantially. Downscaling the climate model using habitat factors resulted in substantial (approximately 22-53%) reductions in the areas estimated to be endangered. Applying expert assessments as to suitable habitat classes resulted in the greatest reduction in the estimated endangered area, whereas inferring suitable habitats factors from distribution data identified more land use classes and a larger endangered area. Despite some scaling issues with using a globally conformal Land Use Systems dataset, the inferential downscaling method shows promise as a routine addition to the PRA toolkit, as either a direct model component, or simply as a means of better informing an expert assessment of the suitable habitat types.</div></front></TEI><pubmed><MedlineCitation Status="MEDLINE" Owner="NLM"><PMID Version="1">26325680</PMID><DateCreated><Year>2015</Year><Month>09</Month><Day>02</Day></DateCreated><DateCompleted><Year>2016</Year><Month>05</Month><Day>25</Day></DateCompleted><DateRevised><Year>2015</Year><Month>09</Month><Day>11</Day></DateRevised><Article PubModel="Electronic-eCollection"><Journal><ISSN IssnType="Electronic">1932-6203</ISSN><JournalIssue CitedMedium="Internet"><Volume>10</Volume><Issue>9</Issue><PubDate><Year>2015</Year></PubDate></JournalIssue><Title>PloS one</Title><ISOAbbreviation>PLoS ONE</ISOAbbreviation></Journal><ArticleTitle>Downscaling Pest Risk Analyses: Identifying Current and Future Potentially Suitable Habitats for Parthenium hysterophorus with Particular Reference to Europe and North Africa.</ArticleTitle><Pagination><MedlinePgn>e0132807</MedlinePgn></Pagination><ELocationID EIdType="doi" ValidYN="Y">10.1371/journal.pone.0132807</ELocationID><Abstract><AbstractText>Pest Risk Assessments (PRAs) routinely employ climatic niche models to identify endangered areas. Typically, these models consider only climatic factors, ignoring the 'Swiss Cheese' nature of species ranges due to the interplay of climatic and habitat factors. As part of a PRA conducted for the European and Mediterranean Plant Protection Organization, we developed a climatic niche model for Parthenium hysterophorus, explicitly including the effects of irrigation where it was known to be practiced. We then downscaled the climatic risk model using two different methods to identify the suitable habitat types: expert opinion (following the EPPO PRA guidelines) and inferred from the global spatial distribution. The PRA revealed a substantial risk to the EPPO region and Central and Western Africa, highlighting the desirability of avoiding an invasion by P. hysterophorus. We also consider the effects of climate change on the modelled risks. The climate change scenario indicated the risk of substantial further spread of P. hysterophorus in temperate northern hemisphere regions (North America, Europe and the northern Middle East), and also high elevation equatorial regions (Western Brazil, Central Africa, and South East Asia) if minimum temperatures increase substantially. Downscaling the climate model using habitat factors resulted in substantial (approximately 22-53%) reductions in the areas estimated to be endangered. Applying expert assessments as to suitable habitat classes resulted in the greatest reduction in the estimated endangered area, whereas inferring suitable habitats factors from distribution data identified more land use classes and a larger endangered area. Despite some scaling issues with using a globally conformal Land Use Systems dataset, the inferential downscaling method shows promise as a routine addition to the PRA toolkit, as either a direct model component, or simply as a means of better informing an expert assessment of the suitable habitat types.</AbstractText></Abstract><AuthorList CompleteYN="Y"><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Kriticos</LastName><ForeName>Darren J</ForeName><Initials>DJ</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>CSIRO, GPO Box 1700, Canberra, ACT, Australia.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Brunel</LastName><ForeName>Sarah</ForeName><Initials>S</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>European and Mediterranean Plant Protection Organization, Paris, France.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Ota</LastName><ForeName>Noboru</ForeName><Initials>N</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>CSIRO, Private Bag 5, Wembley, WA, Australia.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Fried</LastName><ForeName>Guillaume</ForeName><Initials>G</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Anses, Laboratoire de la Santé des Végétaux, Montferrier-sur-Lez cedex, France.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Oude Lansink</LastName><ForeName>Alfons G J M</ForeName><Initials>AG</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Wageningen University, PO Box 8130, Wageningen, The Netherlands.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Panetta</LastName><ForeName>F Dane</ForeName><Initials>FD</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>The University of Melbourne, Parkville, VIC, Australia.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Prasad</LastName><ForeName>T V Ramachandra</ForeName><Initials>TV</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Directorate of Weed Science Research Centre, University of Agricultural Sciences, Bengaluru, India.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Shabbir</LastName><ForeName>Asad</ForeName><Initials>A</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Department of Botany, University of the Punjab, Lahore, Pakistan.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Yaacoby</LastName><ForeName>Tuvia</ForeName><Initials>T</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Plant Protection and Inspection Services, Bet Dagan Agricultural Center, Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development, P.O. Box 78, Bet-Dagan, Israel.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author></AuthorList><Language>eng</Language><PublicationTypeList><PublicationType UI="D016428">Journal Article</PublicationType></PublicationTypeList><ArticleDate DateType="Electronic"><Year>2015</Year><Month>09</Month><Day>01</Day></ArticleDate></Article><MedlineJournalInfo><Country>United States</Country><MedlineTA>PLoS One</MedlineTA><NlmUniqueID>101285081</NlmUniqueID><ISSNLinking>1932-6203</ISSNLinking></MedlineJournalInfo><CitationSubset>IM</CitationSubset><CommentsCorrectionsList><CommentsCorrections RefType="Cites"><RefSource>Aust Vet J. 1985 Nov;62(11):367-9</RefSource><PMID Version="1">3834900</PMID></CommentsCorrections><CommentsCorrections RefType="Cites"><RefSource>Aust Fam Physician. 1995 Aug;24(8):1455-9</RefSource><PMID Version="1">7677614</PMID></CommentsCorrections><CommentsCorrections RefType="Cites"><RefSource>Pest Manag Sci. 2014 Jul;70(7):1023-9</RefSource><PMID Version="1">24430973</PMID></CommentsCorrections></CommentsCorrectionsList><MeshHeadingList><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D000352" MajorTopicYN="N" Type="Geographic">Africa, Northern</DescriptorName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D019659" MajorTopicYN="Y">Asteraceae</DescriptorName><QualifierName UI="Q000502" MajorTopicYN="N">physiology</QualifierName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D057231" MajorTopicYN="N">Climate Change</DescriptorName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D017753" MajorTopicYN="N">Ecosystem</DescriptorName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D005060" MajorTopicYN="N" Type="Geographic">Europe</DescriptorName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D058865" MajorTopicYN="Y">Introduced Species</DescriptorName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D008962" MajorTopicYN="N">Models, Theoretical</DescriptorName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D018570" MajorTopicYN="N">Risk Assessment</DescriptorName></MeshHeading></MeshHeadingList><OtherID Source="NLM">PMC4556490</OtherID></MedlineCitation><PubmedData><History><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="received"><Year>2014</Year><Month>10</Month><Day>28</Day></PubMedPubDate><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="accepted"><Year>2015</Year><Month>06</Month><Day>19</Day></PubMedPubDate><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="entrez"><Year>2015</Year><Month>9</Month><Day>2</Day><Hour>6</Hour><Minute>0</Minute></PubMedPubDate><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="pubmed"><Year>2015</Year><Month>9</Month><Day>2</Day><Hour>6</Hour><Minute>0</Minute></PubMedPubDate><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="medline"><Year>2016</Year><Month>5</Month><Day>26</Day><Hour>6</Hour><Minute>0</Minute></PubMedPubDate></History><PublicationStatus>epublish</PublicationStatus><ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">26325680</ArticleId><ArticleId IdType="doi">10.1371/journal.pone.0132807</ArticleId><ArticleId IdType="pii">PONE-D-14-48397</ArticleId><ArticleId IdType="pmc">PMC4556490</ArticleId></ArticleIdList></PubmedData></pubmed></record>Pour manipuler ce document sous Unix (Dilib)
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