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Interannual cycles of Hantaan virus outbreaks at the human-animal interface in Central China are controlled by temperature and rainfall.

Identifieur interne : 000957 ( PubMed/Corpus ); précédent : 000956; suivant : 000958

Interannual cycles of Hantaan virus outbreaks at the human-animal interface in Central China are controlled by temperature and rainfall.

Auteurs : Huaiyu Tian ; Pengbo Yu ; Bernard Cazelles ; Lei Xu ; Hua Tan ; Jing Yang ; Shanqian Huang ; Bo Xu ; Jun Cai ; Chaofeng Ma ; Jing Wei ; Shen Li ; Jianhui Qu ; Marko Laine ; Jingjun Wang ; Shilu Tong ; Nils Chr Stenseth ; Bing Xu

Source :

RBID : pubmed:28696305

Abstract

Hantavirus, a rodent-borne zoonotic pathogen, has a global distribution with 200,000 human infections diagnosed annually. In recent decades, repeated outbreaks of hantavirus infections have been reported in Eurasia and America. These outbreaks have led to public concern and an interest in understanding the underlying biological mechanisms. Here, we propose a climate-animal-Hantaan virus (HTNV) infection model to address this issue, using a unique dataset spanning a 54-y period (1960-2013). This dataset comes from Central China, a focal point for natural HTNV infection, and includes both field surveillance and an epidemiological record. We reveal that the 8-y cycle of HTNV outbreaks is driven by the confluence of the cyclic dynamics of striped field mouse (Apodemus agrarius) populations and climate variability, at both seasonal and interannual cycles. Two climatic variables play key roles in the ecology of the HTNV system: temperature and rainfall. These variables account for the dynamics in the host reservoir system and markedly affect both the rate of transmission and the potential risk of outbreaks. Our results suggest that outbreaks of HTNV infection occur only when climatic conditions are favorable for both rodent population growth and virus transmission. These findings improve our understanding of how climate drives the periodic reemergence of zoonotic disease outbreaks over long timescales.

DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1701777114
PubMed: 28696305

Links to Exploration step

pubmed:28696305

Le document en format XML

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<div type="abstract" xml:lang="en">Hantavirus, a rodent-borne zoonotic pathogen, has a global distribution with 200,000 human infections diagnosed annually. In recent decades, repeated outbreaks of hantavirus infections have been reported in Eurasia and America. These outbreaks have led to public concern and an interest in understanding the underlying biological mechanisms. Here, we propose a climate-animal-Hantaan virus (HTNV) infection model to address this issue, using a unique dataset spanning a 54-y period (1960-2013). This dataset comes from Central China, a focal point for natural HTNV infection, and includes both field surveillance and an epidemiological record. We reveal that the 8-y cycle of HTNV outbreaks is driven by the confluence of the cyclic dynamics of striped field mouse (Apodemus agrarius) populations and climate variability, at both seasonal and interannual cycles. Two climatic variables play key roles in the ecology of the HTNV system: temperature and rainfall. These variables account for the dynamics in the host reservoir system and markedly affect both the rate of transmission and the potential risk of outbreaks. Our results suggest that outbreaks of HTNV infection occur only when climatic conditions are favorable for both rodent population growth and virus transmission. These findings improve our understanding of how climate drives the periodic reemergence of zoonotic disease outbreaks over long timescales.</div>
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<Affiliation>School of Public Health and Institute of Environment and Population Health, Anhui Medical University, Hefei 230032, China.</Affiliation>
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<Affiliation>State Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing Science, College of Global Change and Earth System Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China; n.c.stenseth@ibv.uio.no jingjunwang@china.com bingxu@tsinghua.edu.cn.</Affiliation>
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<Affiliation>Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System Modelling, Department of Earth System Science, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China.</Affiliation>
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<KeywordList Owner="NOTNLM">
<Keyword MajorTopicYN="N">Hantaan virus</Keyword>
<Keyword MajorTopicYN="N">climate change</Keyword>
<Keyword MajorTopicYN="N">spillover to humans</Keyword>
<Keyword MajorTopicYN="N">time-series data</Keyword>
<Keyword MajorTopicYN="N">wildlife reservoir</Keyword>
</KeywordList>
<CoiStatement>The authors declare no conflict of interest.</CoiStatement>
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