Assessing uncertainties in crop and pasture ensemble model simulations of productivity and N2 O emissions.
Identifieur interne : 000344 ( PubMed/Corpus ); précédent : 000343; suivant : 000345Assessing uncertainties in crop and pasture ensemble model simulations of productivity and N2 O emissions.
Auteurs : Fiona Ehrhardt ; Jean-François Soussana ; Gianni Bellocchi ; Peter Grace ; Russel Mcauliffe ; Sylvie Recous ; Renáta Sándor ; Pete Smith ; Val Snow ; Massimiliano D A. Migliorati ; Bruno Basso ; Arti Bhatia ; Lorenzo Brilli ; Jordi Doltra ; Christopher D. Dorich ; Luca Doro ; Nuala Fitton ; Sandro J. Giacomini ; Brian Grant ; Matthew T. Harrison ; Stephanie K. Jones ; Miko U F. Kirschbaum ; Katja Klumpp ; Patricia Laville ; Joël Léonard ; Mark Liebig ; Mark Lieffering ; Raphaël Martin ; Raia Silvia Massad ; Elizabeth Meier ; Lutz Merbold ; Andrew D. Moore ; Vasileios Myrgiotis ; Paul Newton ; Elizabeth Pattey ; Susanne Rolinski ; Joanna Sharp ; Ward N. Smith ; Lianhai Wu ; Qing ZhangSource :
- Global change biology [ 1365-2486 ] ; 2017.
Abstract
Simulation models are extensively used to predict agricultural productivity and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. However, the uncertainties of (reduced) model ensemble simulations have not been assessed systematically for variables affecting food security and climate change mitigation, within multispecies agricultural contexts. We report an international model comparison and benchmarking exercise, showing the potential of multimodel ensembles to predict productivity and nitrous oxide (N2 O) emissions for wheat, maize, rice and temperate grasslands. Using a multistage modelling protocol, from blind simulations (stage 1) to partial (stages 2-4) and full calibration (stage 5), 24 process-based biogeochemical models were assessed individually or as an ensemble against long-term experimental data from four temperate grassland and five arable crop rotation sites spanning four continents. Comparisons were performed by reference to the experimental uncertainties of observed yields and N2 O emissions. Results showed that across sites and crop/grassland types, 23 to 40% of the uncalibrated individual models were within two standard deviations (s.d.) of observed yields, while 42 (rice) to 96% (grasslands) of the models were within one s.d. of observed N2 O emissions. At stage 1, ensembles formed by the three lowest prediction model errors (RRMSE) predicted both yields and N2 O emissions within experimental uncertainties for 44 and 33% of the crop and grassland growth cycles, respectively. Partial model calibration (stages 2 to 4) markedly reduced prediction errors of the full model ensemble E-median for crop grain yields (from 36% at stage 1 down to 4% on average) and grassland productivity (from 44 to 27%) and to a lesser and more variable extent for N2 O emissions. Yield-scaled N2 O emissions (N2 O emissions divided by crop yields) were ranked accurately by 3-model ensembles across crop species and field sites. The potential of using process-based model ensembles to predict jointly productivity and N2 O emissions at field scale is discussed. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.
DOI: 10.1111/gcb.13965
PubMed: 29080301
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<record><TEI><teiHeader><fileDesc><titleStmt><title xml:lang="en">Assessing uncertainties in crop and pasture ensemble model simulations of productivity and N2 O emissions.</title><author><name sortKey="Ehrhardt, Fiona" sort="Ehrhardt, Fiona" uniqKey="Ehrhardt F" first="Fiona" last="Ehrhardt">Fiona Ehrhardt</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>INRA, Paris, France.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Soussana, Jean Francois" sort="Soussana, Jean Francois" uniqKey="Soussana J" first="Jean-François" last="Soussana">Jean-François Soussana</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>INRA, Paris, France.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Bellocchi, Gianni" sort="Bellocchi, Gianni" uniqKey="Bellocchi G" first="Gianni" last="Bellocchi">Gianni Bellocchi</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>INRA UMR Ecosystème Prairial VetAgroSup, 63000, Clermont-Ferrand, France.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Grace, Peter" sort="Grace, Peter" uniqKey="Grace P" first="Peter" last="Grace">Peter Grace</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, Australia.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Mcauliffe, Russel" sort="Mcauliffe, Russel" uniqKey="Mcauliffe R" first="Russel" last="Mcauliffe">Russel Mcauliffe</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>AgResearch, Lincoln Research Centre, Lincoln, New Zealand.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Recous, Sylvie" sort="Recous, Sylvie" uniqKey="Recous S" first="Sylvie" last="Recous">Sylvie Recous</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>INRA UMR FARE, Reims, France.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Sandor, Renata" sort="Sandor, Renata" uniqKey="Sandor R" first="Renáta" last="Sándor">Renáta Sándor</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>INRA UMR Ecosystème Prairial VetAgroSup, 63000, Clermont-Ferrand, France.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Smith, Pete" sort="Smith, Pete" uniqKey="Smith P" first="Pete" last="Smith">Pete Smith</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Institute of Biological and Environmental Sciences, University of Aberdeen, UK.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Snow, Val" sort="Snow, Val" uniqKey="Snow V" first="Val" last="Snow">Val Snow</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>AgResearch, Lincoln Research Centre, Lincoln, New Zealand.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Migliorati, Massimiliano D A" sort="Migliorati, Massimiliano D A" uniqKey="Migliorati M" first="Massimiliano D A" last="Migliorati">Massimiliano D A. Migliorati</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, Australia.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Basso, Bruno" sort="Basso, Bruno" uniqKey="Basso B" first="Bruno" last="Basso">Bruno Basso</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Dept. Geological Sciences, Michigan State University, East Lansing, MI, USA.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Bhatia, Arti" sort="Bhatia, Arti" uniqKey="Bhatia A" first="Arti" last="Bhatia">Arti Bhatia</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Indian Agricultural Research Institute, New Delhi, India.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Brilli, Lorenzo" sort="Brilli, Lorenzo" uniqKey="Brilli L" first="Lorenzo" last="Brilli">Lorenzo Brilli</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>University of Florence DISPAA, Florence, Italy.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Doltra, Jordi" sort="Doltra, Jordi" uniqKey="Doltra J" first="Jordi" last="Doltra">Jordi Doltra</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Cantabrian Agricultural Research and Training Center (CIFA), Muriedas, Spain.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Dorich, Christopher D" sort="Dorich, Christopher D" uniqKey="Dorich C" first="Christopher D" last="Dorich">Christopher D. Dorich</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>NREL Colorado State University, Fort Collins, USA.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Doro, Luca" sort="Doro, Luca" uniqKey="Doro L" first="Luca" last="Doro">Luca Doro</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Desertification Research Centre, University of Sassari, Sassari, Italy.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Fitton, Nuala" sort="Fitton, Nuala" uniqKey="Fitton N" first="Nuala" last="Fitton">Nuala Fitton</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Institute of Biological and Environmental Sciences, University of Aberdeen, UK.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Giacomini, Sandro J" sort="Giacomini, Sandro J" uniqKey="Giacomini S" first="Sandro J" last="Giacomini">Sandro J. Giacomini</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Federal University of Santa Maria (UFSM), Soil Department, Santa Maria, Brazil.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Grant, Brian" sort="Grant, Brian" uniqKey="Grant B" first="Brian" last="Grant">Brian Grant</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada, Ottawa Research and Development Center, Ottawa, Canada.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Harrison, Matthew T" sort="Harrison, Matthew T" uniqKey="Harrison M" first="Matthew T" last="Harrison">Matthew T. Harrison</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Tasmanian Institute of Agriculture, P.O. Box 3523, Burnie, Tasmania, Australia, 7320.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Jones, Stephanie K" sort="Jones, Stephanie K" uniqKey="Jones S" first="Stephanie K" last="Jones">Stephanie K. Jones</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>SRUC, West Mains Rd, Edinburgh, UK, EH9 3JG.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Kirschbaum, Miko U F" sort="Kirschbaum, Miko U F" uniqKey="Kirschbaum M" first="Miko U F" last="Kirschbaum">Miko U F. Kirschbaum</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Landcare Research, Palmerston North, New Zealand.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Klumpp, Katja" sort="Klumpp, Katja" uniqKey="Klumpp K" first="Katja" last="Klumpp">Katja Klumpp</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>INRA UMR Ecosystème Prairial VetAgroSup, 63000, Clermont-Ferrand, France.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Laville, Patricia" sort="Laville, Patricia" uniqKey="Laville P" first="Patricia" last="Laville">Patricia Laville</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>INRA UMR ECOSYS Université Paris-Saclay, Thiverval-Grignon, France.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Leonard, Joel" sort="Leonard, Joel" uniqKey="Leonard J" first="Joël" last="Léonard">Joël Léonard</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>INRA UR AgroImpact, Laon, France.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Liebig, Mark" sort="Liebig, Mark" uniqKey="Liebig M" first="Mark" last="Liebig">Mark Liebig</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>USDA Agricultural Research Service, Mandan, USA.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Lieffering, Mark" sort="Lieffering, Mark" uniqKey="Lieffering M" first="Mark" last="Lieffering">Mark Lieffering</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>AgResearch Grasslands Research Centre, Palmerton North, New Zealand.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Martin, Raphael" sort="Martin, Raphael" uniqKey="Martin R" first="Raphaël" last="Martin">Raphaël Martin</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>INRA UMR Ecosystème Prairial VetAgroSup, 63000, Clermont-Ferrand, France.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Massad, Raia Silvia" sort="Massad, Raia Silvia" uniqKey="Massad R" first="Raia Silvia" last="Massad">Raia Silvia Massad</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>INRA UMR ECOSYS Université Paris-Saclay, Thiverval-Grignon, France.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Meier, Elizabeth" sort="Meier, Elizabeth" uniqKey="Meier E" first="Elizabeth" last="Meier">Elizabeth Meier</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>CSIRO Agriculture and Food, St Lucia, Australia.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Merbold, Lutz" sort="Merbold, Lutz" uniqKey="Merbold L" first="Lutz" last="Merbold">Lutz Merbold</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>ETH Zurich Institute of Agricultural Sciences, 8092, Zurich, Switzerland.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Moore, Andrew D" sort="Moore, Andrew D" uniqKey="Moore A" first="Andrew D" last="Moore">Andrew D. Moore</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>CSIRO, Agriculture & Food, Black Mountain Science and Innovation Precinct, GPO, Box 1700, Canberra, Australia.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Myrgiotis, Vasileios" sort="Myrgiotis, Vasileios" uniqKey="Myrgiotis V" first="Vasileios" last="Myrgiotis">Vasileios Myrgiotis</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>SRUC, West Mains Rd, Edinburgh, UK, EH9 3JG.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Newton, Paul" sort="Newton, Paul" uniqKey="Newton P" first="Paul" last="Newton">Paul Newton</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>AgResearch Grasslands Research Centre, Palmerton North, New Zealand.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Pattey, Elizabeth" sort="Pattey, Elizabeth" uniqKey="Pattey E" first="Elizabeth" last="Pattey">Elizabeth Pattey</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada, Ottawa Research and Development Center, Ottawa, Canada.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Rolinski, Susanne" sort="Rolinski, Susanne" uniqKey="Rolinski S" first="Susanne" last="Rolinski">Susanne Rolinski</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Potsdam, Germany.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Sharp, Joanna" sort="Sharp, Joanna" uniqKey="Sharp J" first="Joanna" last="Sharp">Joanna Sharp</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>New Zealand Institute for Plant and Food Research, Christchurch, New Zealand.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Smith, Ward N" sort="Smith, Ward N" uniqKey="Smith W" first="Ward N" last="Smith">Ward N. Smith</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada, Ottawa Research and Development Center, Ottawa, Canada.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Wu, Lianhai" sort="Wu, Lianhai" uniqKey="Wu L" first="Lianhai" last="Wu">Lianhai Wu</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Sustainable Soils and Grassland Systems Rothamsted Research, North Wyke, Devon, UK.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Zhang, Qing" sort="Zhang, Qing" uniqKey="Zhang Q" first="Qing" last="Zhang">Qing Zhang</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>LAPC Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author></titleStmt><publicationStmt><idno type="wicri:source">PubMed</idno><date when="2017">2017</date><idno type="RBID">pubmed:29080301</idno><idno type="pmid">29080301</idno><idno type="doi">10.1111/gcb.13965</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/PubMed/Corpus">000344</idno><idno type="wicri:explorRef" wicri:stream="PubMed" wicri:step="Corpus" wicri:corpus="PubMed">000344</idno></publicationStmt><sourceDesc><biblStruct><analytic><title xml:lang="en">Assessing uncertainties in crop and pasture ensemble model simulations of productivity and N2 O emissions.</title><author><name sortKey="Ehrhardt, Fiona" sort="Ehrhardt, Fiona" uniqKey="Ehrhardt F" first="Fiona" last="Ehrhardt">Fiona Ehrhardt</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>INRA, Paris, France.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Soussana, Jean Francois" sort="Soussana, Jean Francois" uniqKey="Soussana J" first="Jean-François" last="Soussana">Jean-François Soussana</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>INRA, Paris, France.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Bellocchi, Gianni" sort="Bellocchi, Gianni" uniqKey="Bellocchi G" first="Gianni" last="Bellocchi">Gianni Bellocchi</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>INRA UMR Ecosystème Prairial VetAgroSup, 63000, Clermont-Ferrand, France.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Grace, Peter" sort="Grace, Peter" uniqKey="Grace P" first="Peter" last="Grace">Peter Grace</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, Australia.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Mcauliffe, Russel" sort="Mcauliffe, Russel" uniqKey="Mcauliffe R" first="Russel" last="Mcauliffe">Russel Mcauliffe</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>AgResearch, Lincoln Research Centre, Lincoln, New Zealand.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Recous, Sylvie" sort="Recous, Sylvie" uniqKey="Recous S" first="Sylvie" last="Recous">Sylvie Recous</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>INRA UMR FARE, Reims, France.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Sandor, Renata" sort="Sandor, Renata" uniqKey="Sandor R" first="Renáta" last="Sándor">Renáta Sándor</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>INRA UMR Ecosystème Prairial VetAgroSup, 63000, Clermont-Ferrand, France.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Smith, Pete" sort="Smith, Pete" uniqKey="Smith P" first="Pete" last="Smith">Pete Smith</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Institute of Biological and Environmental Sciences, University of Aberdeen, UK.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Snow, Val" sort="Snow, Val" uniqKey="Snow V" first="Val" last="Snow">Val Snow</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>AgResearch, Lincoln Research Centre, Lincoln, New Zealand.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Migliorati, Massimiliano D A" sort="Migliorati, Massimiliano D A" uniqKey="Migliorati M" first="Massimiliano D A" last="Migliorati">Massimiliano D A. Migliorati</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, Australia.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Basso, Bruno" sort="Basso, Bruno" uniqKey="Basso B" first="Bruno" last="Basso">Bruno Basso</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Dept. Geological Sciences, Michigan State University, East Lansing, MI, USA.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Bhatia, Arti" sort="Bhatia, Arti" uniqKey="Bhatia A" first="Arti" last="Bhatia">Arti Bhatia</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Indian Agricultural Research Institute, New Delhi, India.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Brilli, Lorenzo" sort="Brilli, Lorenzo" uniqKey="Brilli L" first="Lorenzo" last="Brilli">Lorenzo Brilli</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>University of Florence DISPAA, Florence, Italy.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Doltra, Jordi" sort="Doltra, Jordi" uniqKey="Doltra J" first="Jordi" last="Doltra">Jordi Doltra</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Cantabrian Agricultural Research and Training Center (CIFA), Muriedas, Spain.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Dorich, Christopher D" sort="Dorich, Christopher D" uniqKey="Dorich C" first="Christopher D" last="Dorich">Christopher D. Dorich</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>NREL Colorado State University, Fort Collins, USA.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Doro, Luca" sort="Doro, Luca" uniqKey="Doro L" first="Luca" last="Doro">Luca Doro</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Desertification Research Centre, University of Sassari, Sassari, Italy.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Fitton, Nuala" sort="Fitton, Nuala" uniqKey="Fitton N" first="Nuala" last="Fitton">Nuala Fitton</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Institute of Biological and Environmental Sciences, University of Aberdeen, UK.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Giacomini, Sandro J" sort="Giacomini, Sandro J" uniqKey="Giacomini S" first="Sandro J" last="Giacomini">Sandro J. Giacomini</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Federal University of Santa Maria (UFSM), Soil Department, Santa Maria, Brazil.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Grant, Brian" sort="Grant, Brian" uniqKey="Grant B" first="Brian" last="Grant">Brian Grant</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada, Ottawa Research and Development Center, Ottawa, Canada.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Harrison, Matthew T" sort="Harrison, Matthew T" uniqKey="Harrison M" first="Matthew T" last="Harrison">Matthew T. Harrison</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Tasmanian Institute of Agriculture, P.O. Box 3523, Burnie, Tasmania, Australia, 7320.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Jones, Stephanie K" sort="Jones, Stephanie K" uniqKey="Jones S" first="Stephanie K" last="Jones">Stephanie K. Jones</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>SRUC, West Mains Rd, Edinburgh, UK, EH9 3JG.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Kirschbaum, Miko U F" sort="Kirschbaum, Miko U F" uniqKey="Kirschbaum M" first="Miko U F" last="Kirschbaum">Miko U F. Kirschbaum</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Landcare Research, Palmerston North, New Zealand.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Klumpp, Katja" sort="Klumpp, Katja" uniqKey="Klumpp K" first="Katja" last="Klumpp">Katja Klumpp</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>INRA UMR Ecosystème Prairial VetAgroSup, 63000, Clermont-Ferrand, France.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Laville, Patricia" sort="Laville, Patricia" uniqKey="Laville P" first="Patricia" last="Laville">Patricia Laville</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>INRA UMR ECOSYS Université Paris-Saclay, Thiverval-Grignon, France.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Leonard, Joel" sort="Leonard, Joel" uniqKey="Leonard J" first="Joël" last="Léonard">Joël Léonard</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>INRA UR AgroImpact, Laon, France.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Liebig, Mark" sort="Liebig, Mark" uniqKey="Liebig M" first="Mark" last="Liebig">Mark Liebig</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>USDA Agricultural Research Service, Mandan, USA.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Lieffering, Mark" sort="Lieffering, Mark" uniqKey="Lieffering M" first="Mark" last="Lieffering">Mark Lieffering</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>AgResearch Grasslands Research Centre, Palmerton North, New Zealand.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Martin, Raphael" sort="Martin, Raphael" uniqKey="Martin R" first="Raphaël" last="Martin">Raphaël Martin</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>INRA UMR Ecosystème Prairial VetAgroSup, 63000, Clermont-Ferrand, France.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Massad, Raia Silvia" sort="Massad, Raia Silvia" uniqKey="Massad R" first="Raia Silvia" last="Massad">Raia Silvia Massad</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>INRA UMR ECOSYS Université Paris-Saclay, Thiverval-Grignon, France.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Meier, Elizabeth" sort="Meier, Elizabeth" uniqKey="Meier E" first="Elizabeth" last="Meier">Elizabeth Meier</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>CSIRO Agriculture and Food, St Lucia, Australia.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Merbold, Lutz" sort="Merbold, Lutz" uniqKey="Merbold L" first="Lutz" last="Merbold">Lutz Merbold</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>ETH Zurich Institute of Agricultural Sciences, 8092, Zurich, Switzerland.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Moore, Andrew D" sort="Moore, Andrew D" uniqKey="Moore A" first="Andrew D" last="Moore">Andrew D. Moore</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>CSIRO, Agriculture & Food, Black Mountain Science and Innovation Precinct, GPO, Box 1700, Canberra, Australia.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Myrgiotis, Vasileios" sort="Myrgiotis, Vasileios" uniqKey="Myrgiotis V" first="Vasileios" last="Myrgiotis">Vasileios Myrgiotis</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>SRUC, West Mains Rd, Edinburgh, UK, EH9 3JG.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Newton, Paul" sort="Newton, Paul" uniqKey="Newton P" first="Paul" last="Newton">Paul Newton</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>AgResearch Grasslands Research Centre, Palmerton North, New Zealand.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Pattey, Elizabeth" sort="Pattey, Elizabeth" uniqKey="Pattey E" first="Elizabeth" last="Pattey">Elizabeth Pattey</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada, Ottawa Research and Development Center, Ottawa, Canada.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Rolinski, Susanne" sort="Rolinski, Susanne" uniqKey="Rolinski S" first="Susanne" last="Rolinski">Susanne Rolinski</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Potsdam, Germany.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Sharp, Joanna" sort="Sharp, Joanna" uniqKey="Sharp J" first="Joanna" last="Sharp">Joanna Sharp</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>New Zealand Institute for Plant and Food Research, Christchurch, New Zealand.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Smith, Ward N" sort="Smith, Ward N" uniqKey="Smith W" first="Ward N" last="Smith">Ward N. Smith</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada, Ottawa Research and Development Center, Ottawa, Canada.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Wu, Lianhai" sort="Wu, Lianhai" uniqKey="Wu L" first="Lianhai" last="Wu">Lianhai Wu</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Sustainable Soils and Grassland Systems Rothamsted Research, North Wyke, Devon, UK.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Zhang, Qing" sort="Zhang, Qing" uniqKey="Zhang Q" first="Qing" last="Zhang">Qing Zhang</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>LAPC Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author></analytic><series><title level="j">Global change biology</title><idno type="eISSN">1365-2486</idno><imprint><date when="2017" type="published">2017</date></imprint></series></biblStruct></sourceDesc></fileDesc><profileDesc><textClass></textClass></profileDesc></teiHeader><front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en">Simulation models are extensively used to predict agricultural productivity and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. However, the uncertainties of (reduced) model ensemble simulations have not been assessed systematically for variables affecting food security and climate change mitigation, within multispecies agricultural contexts. We report an international model comparison and benchmarking exercise, showing the potential of multimodel ensembles to predict productivity and nitrous oxide (N2 O) emissions for wheat, maize, rice and temperate grasslands. Using a multistage modelling protocol, from blind simulations (stage 1) to partial (stages 2-4) and full calibration (stage 5), 24 process-based biogeochemical models were assessed individually or as an ensemble against long-term experimental data from four temperate grassland and five arable crop rotation sites spanning four continents. Comparisons were performed by reference to the experimental uncertainties of observed yields and N2 O emissions. Results showed that across sites and crop/grassland types, 23 to 40% of the uncalibrated individual models were within two standard deviations (s.d.) of observed yields, while 42 (rice) to 96% (grasslands) of the models were within one s.d. of observed N2 O emissions. At stage 1, ensembles formed by the three lowest prediction model errors (RRMSE) predicted both yields and N2 O emissions within experimental uncertainties for 44 and 33% of the crop and grassland growth cycles, respectively. Partial model calibration (stages 2 to 4) markedly reduced prediction errors of the full model ensemble E-median for crop grain yields (from 36% at stage 1 down to 4% on average) and grassland productivity (from 44 to 27%) and to a lesser and more variable extent for N2 O emissions. Yield-scaled N2 O emissions (N2 O emissions divided by crop yields) were ranked accurately by 3-model ensembles across crop species and field sites. The potential of using process-based model ensembles to predict jointly productivity and N2 O emissions at field scale is discussed. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.</div></front></TEI><pubmed><MedlineCitation Status="Publisher" Owner="NLM"><PMID Version="1">29080301</PMID><DateCreated><Year>2017</Year><Month>10</Month><Day>28</Day></DateCreated><DateRevised><Year>2017</Year><Month>10</Month><Day>28</Day></DateRevised><Article PubModel="Print-Electronic"><Journal><ISSN IssnType="Electronic">1365-2486</ISSN><JournalIssue CitedMedium="Internet"><PubDate><Year>2017</Year><Month>Oct</Month><Day>28</Day></PubDate></JournalIssue><Title>Global change biology</Title><ISOAbbreviation>Glob Chang Biol</ISOAbbreviation></Journal><ArticleTitle>Assessing uncertainties in crop and pasture ensemble model simulations of productivity and N2 O emissions.</ArticleTitle><ELocationID EIdType="doi" ValidYN="Y">10.1111/gcb.13965</ELocationID><Abstract><AbstractText>Simulation models are extensively used to predict agricultural productivity and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. However, the uncertainties of (reduced) model ensemble simulations have not been assessed systematically for variables affecting food security and climate change mitigation, within multispecies agricultural contexts. We report an international model comparison and benchmarking exercise, showing the potential of multimodel ensembles to predict productivity and nitrous oxide (N2 O) emissions for wheat, maize, rice and temperate grasslands. Using a multistage modelling protocol, from blind simulations (stage 1) to partial (stages 2-4) and full calibration (stage 5), 24 process-based biogeochemical models were assessed individually or as an ensemble against long-term experimental data from four temperate grassland and five arable crop rotation sites spanning four continents. Comparisons were performed by reference to the experimental uncertainties of observed yields and N2 O emissions. Results showed that across sites and crop/grassland types, 23 to 40% of the uncalibrated individual models were within two standard deviations (s.d.) of observed yields, while 42 (rice) to 96% (grasslands) of the models were within one s.d. of observed N2 O emissions. At stage 1, ensembles formed by the three lowest prediction model errors (RRMSE) predicted both yields and N2 O emissions within experimental uncertainties for 44 and 33% of the crop and grassland growth cycles, respectively. Partial model calibration (stages 2 to 4) markedly reduced prediction errors of the full model ensemble E-median for crop grain yields (from 36% at stage 1 down to 4% on average) and grassland productivity (from 44 to 27%) and to a lesser and more variable extent for N2 O emissions. Yield-scaled N2 O emissions (N2 O emissions divided by crop yields) were ranked accurately by 3-model ensembles across crop species and field sites. The potential of using process-based model ensembles to predict jointly productivity and N2 O emissions at field scale is discussed. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.</AbstractText><CopyrightInformation>This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.</CopyrightInformation></Abstract><AuthorList CompleteYN="Y"><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Ehrhardt</LastName><ForeName>Fiona</ForeName><Initials>F</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>INRA, Paris, France.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Soussana</LastName><ForeName>Jean-François</ForeName><Initials>JF</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>INRA, Paris, France.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Bellocchi</LastName><ForeName>Gianni</ForeName><Initials>G</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>INRA UMR Ecosystème Prairial VetAgroSup, 63000, Clermont-Ferrand, France.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Grace</LastName><ForeName>Peter</ForeName><Initials>P</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, Australia.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>McAuliffe</LastName><ForeName>Russel</ForeName><Initials>R</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>AgResearch, Lincoln Research Centre, Lincoln, New Zealand.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Recous</LastName><ForeName>Sylvie</ForeName><Initials>S</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>INRA UMR FARE, Reims, France.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Sándor</LastName><ForeName>Renáta</ForeName><Initials>R</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>INRA UMR Ecosystème Prairial VetAgroSup, 63000, Clermont-Ferrand, France.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>HAS, CAR Agricultural Institute, Martonvásár, Hungary.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Smith</LastName><ForeName>Pete</ForeName><Initials>P</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Institute of Biological and Environmental Sciences, University of Aberdeen, UK.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Snow</LastName><ForeName>Val</ForeName><Initials>V</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>AgResearch, Lincoln Research Centre, Lincoln, New Zealand.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Migliorati</LastName><ForeName>Massimiliano D A</ForeName><Initials>MDA</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, Australia.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Basso</LastName><ForeName>Bruno</ForeName><Initials>B</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Dept. Geological Sciences, Michigan State University, East Lansing, MI, USA.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Bhatia</LastName><ForeName>Arti</ForeName><Initials>A</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Indian Agricultural Research Institute, New Delhi, India.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Brilli</LastName><ForeName>Lorenzo</ForeName><Initials>L</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>University of Florence DISPAA, Florence, Italy.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Doltra</LastName><ForeName>Jordi</ForeName><Initials>J</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Cantabrian Agricultural Research and Training Center (CIFA), Muriedas, Spain.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Dorich</LastName><ForeName>Christopher D</ForeName><Initials>CD</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>NREL Colorado State University, Fort Collins, USA.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Doro</LastName><ForeName>Luca</ForeName><Initials>L</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Desertification Research Centre, University of Sassari, Sassari, Italy.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Fitton</LastName><ForeName>Nuala</ForeName><Initials>N</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Institute of Biological and Environmental Sciences, University of Aberdeen, UK.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Giacomini</LastName><ForeName>Sandro J</ForeName><Initials>SJ</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Federal University of Santa Maria (UFSM), Soil Department, Santa Maria, Brazil.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Grant</LastName><ForeName>Brian</ForeName><Initials>B</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada, Ottawa Research and Development Center, Ottawa, Canada.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Harrison</LastName><ForeName>Matthew T</ForeName><Initials>MT</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Tasmanian Institute of Agriculture, P.O. Box 3523, Burnie, Tasmania, Australia, 7320.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Jones</LastName><ForeName>Stephanie K</ForeName><Initials>SK</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>SRUC, West Mains Rd, Edinburgh, UK, EH9 3JG.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Kirschbaum</LastName><ForeName>Miko U F</ForeName><Initials>MUF</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Landcare Research, Palmerston North, New Zealand.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Klumpp</LastName><ForeName>Katja</ForeName><Initials>K</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>INRA UMR Ecosystème Prairial VetAgroSup, 63000, Clermont-Ferrand, France.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Laville</LastName><ForeName>Patricia</ForeName><Initials>P</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>INRA UMR ECOSYS Université Paris-Saclay, Thiverval-Grignon, France.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Léonard</LastName><ForeName>Joël</ForeName><Initials>J</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>INRA UR AgroImpact, Laon, France.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Liebig</LastName><ForeName>Mark</ForeName><Initials>M</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>USDA Agricultural Research Service, Mandan, USA.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Lieffering</LastName><ForeName>Mark</ForeName><Initials>M</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>AgResearch Grasslands Research Centre, Palmerton North, New Zealand.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Martin</LastName><ForeName>Raphaël</ForeName><Initials>R</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>INRA UMR Ecosystème Prairial VetAgroSup, 63000, Clermont-Ferrand, France.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Massad</LastName><ForeName>Raia Silvia</ForeName><Initials>RS</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>INRA UMR ECOSYS Université Paris-Saclay, Thiverval-Grignon, France.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Meier</LastName><ForeName>Elizabeth</ForeName><Initials>E</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>CSIRO Agriculture and Food, St Lucia, Australia.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Merbold</LastName><ForeName>Lutz</ForeName><Initials>L</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>ETH Zurich Institute of Agricultural Sciences, 8092, Zurich, Switzerland.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>International Livestock Research Institute (ILRI), Mazingira Centre, P.O. Box 30709, 00100, Nairobi, Kenya.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Moore</LastName><ForeName>Andrew D</ForeName><Initials>AD</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>CSIRO, Agriculture & Food, Black Mountain Science and Innovation Precinct, GPO, Box 1700, Canberra, Australia.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Myrgiotis</LastName><ForeName>Vasileios</ForeName><Initials>V</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>SRUC, West Mains Rd, Edinburgh, UK, EH9 3JG.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Newton</LastName><ForeName>Paul</ForeName><Initials>P</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>AgResearch Grasslands Research Centre, Palmerton North, New Zealand.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Pattey</LastName><ForeName>Elizabeth</ForeName><Initials>E</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada, Ottawa Research and Development Center, Ottawa, Canada.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Rolinski</LastName><ForeName>Susanne</ForeName><Initials>S</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Potsdam, Germany.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Sharp</LastName><ForeName>Joanna</ForeName><Initials>J</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>New Zealand Institute for Plant and Food Research, Christchurch, New Zealand.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Smith</LastName><ForeName>Ward N</ForeName><Initials>WN</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada, Ottawa Research and Development Center, Ottawa, Canada.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Wu</LastName><ForeName>Lianhai</ForeName><Initials>L</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Sustainable Soils and Grassland Systems Rothamsted Research, North Wyke, Devon, UK.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Zhang</LastName><ForeName>Qing</ForeName><Initials>Q</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>LAPC Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author></AuthorList><Language>eng</Language><PublicationTypeList><PublicationType UI="D016428">Journal Article</PublicationType></PublicationTypeList><ArticleDate DateType="Electronic"><Year>2017</Year><Month>10</Month><Day>28</Day></ArticleDate></Article><MedlineJournalInfo><Country>England</Country><MedlineTA>Glob Chang Biol</MedlineTA><NlmUniqueID>9888746</NlmUniqueID><ISSNLinking>1354-1013</ISSNLinking></MedlineJournalInfo><KeywordList Owner="NOTNLM"><Keyword MajorTopicYN="N">agriculture</Keyword><Keyword MajorTopicYN="N">benchmarking</Keyword><Keyword MajorTopicYN="N">biogeochemical models</Keyword><Keyword MajorTopicYN="N">climate change</Keyword><Keyword MajorTopicYN="N">greenhouse gases</Keyword><Keyword MajorTopicYN="N">nitrous oxide</Keyword><Keyword MajorTopicYN="N">soil</Keyword><Keyword MajorTopicYN="N">yield</Keyword></KeywordList></MedlineCitation><PubmedData><History><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="entrez"><Year>2017</Year><Month>10</Month><Day>29</Day><Hour>6</Hour><Minute>0</Minute></PubMedPubDate><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="pubmed"><Year>2017</Year><Month>10</Month><Day>29</Day><Hour>6</Hour><Minute>0</Minute></PubMedPubDate><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="medline"><Year>2017</Year><Month>10</Month><Day>29</Day><Hour>6</Hour><Minute>0</Minute></PubMedPubDate></History><PublicationStatus>aheadofprint</PublicationStatus><ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">29080301</ArticleId><ArticleId IdType="doi">10.1111/gcb.13965</ArticleId></ArticleIdList></PubmedData></pubmed></record>Pour manipuler ce document sous Unix (Dilib)
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