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Minimal geological methane emissions during the Younger Dryas-Preboreal abrupt warming event.

Identifieur interne : 000797 ( PubMed/Checkpoint ); précédent : 000796; suivant : 000798

Minimal geological methane emissions during the Younger Dryas-Preboreal abrupt warming event.

Auteurs : Vasilii V. Petrenko [États-Unis] ; Andrew M. Smith [Australie] ; Hinrich Schaefer [Nouvelle-Zélande] ; Katja Riedel [Nouvelle-Zélande] ; Edward Brook [États-Unis] ; Daniel Baggenstos [États-Unis] ; Christina Harth [États-Unis] ; Quan Hua [Australie] ; Christo Buizert [États-Unis] ; Adrian Schilt [États-Unis] ; Xavier Fain [France] ; Logan Mitchell [États-Unis] ; Thomas Bauska [États-Unis] ; Anais Orsi [États-Unis] ; Ray F. Weiss [États-Unis] ; Jeffrey P. Severinghaus [États-Unis]

Source :

RBID : pubmed:28836593

Abstract

Methane (CH4) is a powerful greenhouse gas and plays a key part in global atmospheric chemistry. Natural geological emissions (fossil methane vented naturally from marine and terrestrial seeps and mud volcanoes) are thought to contribute around 52 teragrams of methane per year to the global methane source, about 10 per cent of the total, but both bottom-up methods (measuring emissions) and top-down approaches (measuring atmospheric mole fractions and isotopes) for constraining these geological emissions have been associated with large uncertainties. Here we use ice core measurements to quantify the absolute amount of radiocarbon-containing methane ((14)CH4) in the past atmosphere and show that geological methane emissions were no higher than 15.4 teragrams per year (95 per cent confidence), averaged over the abrupt warming event that occurred between the Younger Dryas and Preboreal intervals, approximately 11,600 years ago. Assuming that past geological methane emissions were no lower than today, our results indicate that current estimates of today's natural geological methane emissions (about 52 teragrams per year) are too high and, by extension, that current estimates of anthropogenic fossil methane emissions are too low. Our results also improve on and confirm earlier findings that the rapid increase of about 50 per cent in mole fraction of atmospheric methane at the Younger Dryas-Preboreal event was driven by contemporaneous methane from sources such as wetlands; our findings constrain the contribution from old carbon reservoirs (marine methane hydrates, permafrost and methane trapped under ice) to 19 per cent or less (95 per cent confidence). To the extent that the characteristics of the most recent deglaciation and the Younger Dryas-Preboreal warming are comparable to those of the current anthropogenic warming, our measurements suggest that large future atmospheric releases of methane from old carbon sources are unlikely to occur.

DOI: 10.1038/nature23316
PubMed: 28836593


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<div type="abstract" xml:lang="en">Methane (CH4) is a powerful greenhouse gas and plays a key part in global atmospheric chemistry. Natural geological emissions (fossil methane vented naturally from marine and terrestrial seeps and mud volcanoes) are thought to contribute around 52 teragrams of methane per year to the global methane source, about 10 per cent of the total, but both bottom-up methods (measuring emissions) and top-down approaches (measuring atmospheric mole fractions and isotopes) for constraining these geological emissions have been associated with large uncertainties. Here we use ice core measurements to quantify the absolute amount of radiocarbon-containing methane ((14)CH4) in the past atmosphere and show that geological methane emissions were no higher than 15.4 teragrams per year (95 per cent confidence), averaged over the abrupt warming event that occurred between the Younger Dryas and Preboreal intervals, approximately 11,600 years ago. Assuming that past geological methane emissions were no lower than today, our results indicate that current estimates of today's natural geological methane emissions (about 52 teragrams per year) are too high and, by extension, that current estimates of anthropogenic fossil methane emissions are too low. Our results also improve on and confirm earlier findings that the rapid increase of about 50 per cent in mole fraction of atmospheric methane at the Younger Dryas-Preboreal event was driven by contemporaneous methane from sources such as wetlands; our findings constrain the contribution from old carbon reservoirs (marine methane hydrates, permafrost and methane trapped under ice) to 19 per cent or less (95 per cent confidence). To the extent that the characteristics of the most recent deglaciation and the Younger Dryas-Preboreal warming are comparable to those of the current anthropogenic warming, our measurements suggest that large future atmospheric releases of methane from old carbon sources are unlikely to occur.</div>
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<PMID Version="1">28836593</PMID>
<DateCreated>
<Year>2017</Year>
<Month>08</Month>
<Day>24</Day>
</DateCreated>
<DateRevised>
<Year>2017</Year>
<Month>09</Month>
<Day>22</Day>
</DateRevised>
<Article PubModel="Print">
<Journal>
<ISSN IssnType="Electronic">1476-4687</ISSN>
<JournalIssue CitedMedium="Internet">
<Volume>548</Volume>
<Issue>7668</Issue>
<PubDate>
<Year>2017</Year>
<Month>Aug</Month>
<Day>23</Day>
</PubDate>
</JournalIssue>
<Title>Nature</Title>
<ISOAbbreviation>Nature</ISOAbbreviation>
</Journal>
<ArticleTitle>Minimal geological methane emissions during the Younger Dryas-Preboreal abrupt warming event.</ArticleTitle>
<Pagination>
<MedlinePgn>443-446</MedlinePgn>
</Pagination>
<ELocationID EIdType="doi" ValidYN="Y">10.1038/nature23316</ELocationID>
<Abstract>
<AbstractText>Methane (CH4) is a powerful greenhouse gas and plays a key part in global atmospheric chemistry. Natural geological emissions (fossil methane vented naturally from marine and terrestrial seeps and mud volcanoes) are thought to contribute around 52 teragrams of methane per year to the global methane source, about 10 per cent of the total, but both bottom-up methods (measuring emissions) and top-down approaches (measuring atmospheric mole fractions and isotopes) for constraining these geological emissions have been associated with large uncertainties. Here we use ice core measurements to quantify the absolute amount of radiocarbon-containing methane ((14)CH4) in the past atmosphere and show that geological methane emissions were no higher than 15.4 teragrams per year (95 per cent confidence), averaged over the abrupt warming event that occurred between the Younger Dryas and Preboreal intervals, approximately 11,600 years ago. Assuming that past geological methane emissions were no lower than today, our results indicate that current estimates of today's natural geological methane emissions (about 52 teragrams per year) are too high and, by extension, that current estimates of anthropogenic fossil methane emissions are too low. Our results also improve on and confirm earlier findings that the rapid increase of about 50 per cent in mole fraction of atmospheric methane at the Younger Dryas-Preboreal event was driven by contemporaneous methane from sources such as wetlands; our findings constrain the contribution from old carbon reservoirs (marine methane hydrates, permafrost and methane trapped under ice) to 19 per cent or less (95 per cent confidence). To the extent that the characteristics of the most recent deglaciation and the Younger Dryas-Preboreal warming are comparable to those of the current anthropogenic warming, our measurements suggest that large future atmospheric releases of methane from old carbon sources are unlikely to occur.</AbstractText>
</Abstract>
<AuthorList CompleteYN="Y">
<Author ValidYN="Y">
<LastName>Petrenko</LastName>
<ForeName>Vasilii V</ForeName>
<Initials>VV</Initials>
<AffiliationInfo>
<Affiliation>Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Rochester, Rochester, New York 14627, USA.</Affiliation>
</AffiliationInfo>
</Author>
<Author ValidYN="Y">
<LastName>Smith</LastName>
<ForeName>Andrew M</ForeName>
<Initials>AM</Initials>
<AffiliationInfo>
<Affiliation>Australian Nuclear Science and Technology Organisation (ANSTO), Locked Bag 2001, Kirrawee DC, New South Wales 2232, Australia.</Affiliation>
</AffiliationInfo>
</Author>
<Author ValidYN="Y">
<LastName>Schaefer</LastName>
<ForeName>Hinrich</ForeName>
<Initials>H</Initials>
<AffiliationInfo>
<Affiliation>National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research (NIWA), PO Box 14901, Kilbirnie, 301 Evans Bay Parade, Wellington, New Zealand.</Affiliation>
</AffiliationInfo>
</Author>
<Author ValidYN="Y">
<LastName>Riedel</LastName>
<ForeName>Katja</ForeName>
<Initials>K</Initials>
<AffiliationInfo>
<Affiliation>National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research (NIWA), PO Box 14901, Kilbirnie, 301 Evans Bay Parade, Wellington, New Zealand.</Affiliation>
</AffiliationInfo>
</Author>
<Author ValidYN="Y">
<LastName>Brook</LastName>
<ForeName>Edward</ForeName>
<Initials>E</Initials>
<AffiliationInfo>
<Affiliation>College of Earth, Ocean and Atmospheric Sciences, Oregon State University, Corvallis, Oregon 97331, USA.</Affiliation>
</AffiliationInfo>
</Author>
<Author ValidYN="Y">
<LastName>Baggenstos</LastName>
<ForeName>Daniel</ForeName>
<Initials>D</Initials>
<AffiliationInfo>
<Affiliation>Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California, San Diego, La Jolla, California 92093, USA.</Affiliation>
</AffiliationInfo>
<AffiliationInfo>
<Affiliation>University of Berne, Physics Institute, CH-3012 Bern, Switzerland.</Affiliation>
</AffiliationInfo>
</Author>
<Author ValidYN="Y">
<LastName>Harth</LastName>
<ForeName>Christina</ForeName>
<Initials>C</Initials>
<AffiliationInfo>
<Affiliation>Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California, San Diego, La Jolla, California 92093, USA.</Affiliation>
</AffiliationInfo>
</Author>
<Author ValidYN="Y">
<LastName>Hua</LastName>
<ForeName>Quan</ForeName>
<Initials>Q</Initials>
<AffiliationInfo>
<Affiliation>Australian Nuclear Science and Technology Organisation (ANSTO), Locked Bag 2001, Kirrawee DC, New South Wales 2232, Australia.</Affiliation>
</AffiliationInfo>
</Author>
<Author ValidYN="Y">
<LastName>Buizert</LastName>
<ForeName>Christo</ForeName>
<Initials>C</Initials>
<AffiliationInfo>
<Affiliation>College of Earth, Ocean and Atmospheric Sciences, Oregon State University, Corvallis, Oregon 97331, USA.</Affiliation>
</AffiliationInfo>
</Author>
<Author ValidYN="Y">
<LastName>Schilt</LastName>
<ForeName>Adrian</ForeName>
<Initials>A</Initials>
<AffiliationInfo>
<Affiliation>College of Earth, Ocean and Atmospheric Sciences, Oregon State University, Corvallis, Oregon 97331, USA.</Affiliation>
</AffiliationInfo>
</Author>
<Author ValidYN="Y">
<LastName>Fain</LastName>
<ForeName>Xavier</ForeName>
<Initials>X</Initials>
<AffiliationInfo>
<Affiliation>Université Grenoble Alpes/CNRS, Laboratoire de Glaciologie et Géophysique de l'Environnement (LGGE), UMR 5183, Grenoble, 38041, France.</Affiliation>
</AffiliationInfo>
</Author>
<Author ValidYN="Y">
<LastName>Mitchell</LastName>
<ForeName>Logan</ForeName>
<Initials>L</Initials>
<AffiliationInfo>
<Affiliation>College of Earth, Ocean and Atmospheric Sciences, Oregon State University, Corvallis, Oregon 97331, USA.</Affiliation>
</AffiliationInfo>
<AffiliationInfo>
<Affiliation>Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, Utah 84112, USA.</Affiliation>
</AffiliationInfo>
</Author>
<Author ValidYN="Y">
<LastName>Bauska</LastName>
<ForeName>Thomas</ForeName>
<Initials>T</Initials>
<AffiliationInfo>
<Affiliation>College of Earth, Ocean and Atmospheric Sciences, Oregon State University, Corvallis, Oregon 97331, USA.</Affiliation>
</AffiliationInfo>
<AffiliationInfo>
<Affiliation>Department of Earth Sciences, University of Cambridge, Cambridge CB2 3EQ, UK.</Affiliation>
</AffiliationInfo>
</Author>
<Author ValidYN="Y">
<LastName>Orsi</LastName>
<ForeName>Anais</ForeName>
<Initials>A</Initials>
<AffiliationInfo>
<Affiliation>Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California, San Diego, La Jolla, California 92093, USA.</Affiliation>
</AffiliationInfo>
<AffiliationInfo>
<Affiliation>Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, LSCE/IPSL, CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, Université Paris-Saclay, F-91198 Gif-sur-Yvette, France.</Affiliation>
</AffiliationInfo>
</Author>
<Author ValidYN="Y">
<LastName>Weiss</LastName>
<ForeName>Ray F</ForeName>
<Initials>RF</Initials>
<AffiliationInfo>
<Affiliation>Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California, San Diego, La Jolla, California 92093, USA.</Affiliation>
</AffiliationInfo>
</Author>
<Author ValidYN="Y">
<LastName>Severinghaus</LastName>
<ForeName>Jeffrey P</ForeName>
<Initials>JP</Initials>
<AffiliationInfo>
<Affiliation>Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California, San Diego, La Jolla, California 92093, USA.</Affiliation>
</AffiliationInfo>
</Author>
</AuthorList>
<Language>eng</Language>
<PublicationTypeList>
<PublicationType UI="D016428">Journal Article</PublicationType>
</PublicationTypeList>
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<Country>England</Country>
<MedlineTA>Nature</MedlineTA>
<NlmUniqueID>0410462</NlmUniqueID>
<ISSNLinking>0028-0836</ISSNLinking>
</MedlineJournalInfo>
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<Year>2016</Year>
<Month>09</Month>
<Day>28</Day>
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<Year>2017</Year>
<Month>06</Month>
<Day>21</Day>
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<Month>8</Month>
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<list>
<country>
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