Coral Reefs and People in a High-CO2 World: Where Can Science Make a Difference to People?
Identifieur interne : 002806 ( Pmc/Curation ); précédent : 002805; suivant : 002807Coral Reefs and People in a High-CO2 World: Where Can Science Make a Difference to People?
Auteurs : Linwood Pendleton [France] ; Adrien Comte [France] ; Chris Langdon [États-Unis] ; Julia A. Ekstrom [États-Unis] ; Sarah R. Cooley [États-Unis] ; Lisa Suatoni [États-Unis] ; Michael W. Beck [États-Unis] ; Luke M. Brander [Pays-Bas] ; Lauretta Burke [États-Unis] ; Josh E. Cinner [Australie] ; Carolyn Doherty [États-Unis] ; Peter E. T. Edwards [États-Unis] ; Dwight Gledhill [États-Unis] ; Li-Qing Jiang [États-Unis] ; Ruben J. Van Hooidonk [États-Unis] ; Louise Teh [Canada] ; George G. Waldbusser [États-Unis] ; Jessica Ritter [États-Unis]Source :
- PLoS ONE [ 1932-6203 ] ; 2016.
Abstract
Increasing levels of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere put shallow, warm-water coral reef ecosystems, and the people who depend upon them at risk from two key global environmental stresses: 1) elevated sea surface temperature (that can cause coral bleaching and related mortality), and 2) ocean acidification. These global stressors: cannot be avoided by local management, compound local stressors, and hasten the loss of ecosystem services. Impacts to people will be most grave where a) human dependence on coral reef ecosystems is high, b) sea surface temperature reaches critical levels soonest, and c) ocean acidification levels are most severe. Where these elements align, swift action will be needed to protect people’s lives and livelihoods, but such action must be informed by data and science.
Designing policies to offset potential harm to coral reef ecosystems and people requires a better understanding of where CO2-related global environmental stresses could cause the most severe impacts. Mapping indicators has been proposed as a way of combining natural and social science data to identify policy actions even when the needed science is relatively nascent. To identify where people are at risk and where more science is needed, we map indicators of biological, physical and social science factors to understand how human dependence on coral reef ecosystems will be affected by globally-driven threats to corals expected in a high-CO2 world. Western Mexico, Micronesia, Indonesia and parts of Australia have high human dependence and will likely face severe combined threats. As a region, Southeast Asia is particularly at risk. Many of the countries most dependent upon coral reef ecosystems are places for which we have the least robust data on ocean acidification. These areas require new data and interdisciplinary scientific research to help coral reef-dependent human communities better prepare for a high CO2 world.
Url:
DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0164699
PubMed: 27828972
PubMed Central: 5102364
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<sourceDesc><biblStruct><analytic><title xml:lang="en" level="a" type="main">Coral Reefs and People in a High-CO<sub>2</sub>
World: Where Can Science Make a Difference to People?</title>
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<affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff006"><addr-line>Natural Resources Defense Council, New York, New York, United States of America</addr-line>
</nlm:aff>
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<wicri:regionArea>Natural Resources Defense Council, New York, New York</wicri:regionArea>
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<author><name sortKey="Beck, Michael W" sort="Beck, Michael W" uniqKey="Beck M" first="Michael W." last="Beck">Michael W. Beck</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff007"><addr-line>The Nature Conservancy and the University of California, Santa Cruz, Ocean Sciences, Santa Cruz, California, United States of America</addr-line>
</nlm:aff>
<country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country>
<wicri:regionArea>The Nature Conservancy and the University of California, Santa Cruz, Ocean Sciences, Santa Cruz, California</wicri:regionArea>
</affiliation>
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<author><name sortKey="Brander, Luke M" sort="Brander, Luke M" uniqKey="Brander L" first="Luke M." last="Brander">Luke M. Brander</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff008"><addr-line>Institute for Environmental Studies, VU University, Amsterdam, The Netherlands</addr-line>
</nlm:aff>
<country xml:lang="fr">Pays-Bas</country>
<wicri:regionArea>Institute for Environmental Studies, VU University, Amsterdam</wicri:regionArea>
</affiliation>
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<author><name sortKey="Burke, Lauretta" sort="Burke, Lauretta" uniqKey="Burke L" first="Lauretta" last="Burke">Lauretta Burke</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff009"><addr-line>World Resources Institute, Washington, D.C., United States of America</addr-line>
</nlm:aff>
<country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country>
<wicri:regionArea>World Resources Institute, Washington, D.C.</wicri:regionArea>
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<author><name sortKey="Cinner, Josh E" sort="Cinner, Josh E" uniqKey="Cinner J" first="Josh E." last="Cinner">Josh E. Cinner</name>
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</nlm:aff>
<country xml:lang="fr">Australie</country>
<wicri:regionArea>James Cook University, ARC Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies, Townsville</wicri:regionArea>
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<author><name sortKey="Doherty, Carolyn" sort="Doherty, Carolyn" uniqKey="Doherty C" first="Carolyn" last="Doherty">Carolyn Doherty</name>
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<wicri:regionArea>Duke University, Durham, North Carolina</wicri:regionArea>
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<author><name sortKey="Edwards, Peter E T" sort="Edwards, Peter E T" uniqKey="Edwards P" first="Peter E. T." last="Edwards">Peter E. T. Edwards</name>
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</nlm:aff>
<country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country>
<wicri:regionArea>Coral Reef Conservation Program, NOAA, Silver Spring, Maryland</wicri:regionArea>
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<author><name sortKey="Gledhill, Dwight" sort="Gledhill, Dwight" uniqKey="Gledhill D" first="Dwight" last="Gledhill">Dwight Gledhill</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff012"><addr-line>Ocean Acidification Program, NOAA, Silver Spring, Maryland, United States of America</addr-line>
</nlm:aff>
<country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country>
<wicri:regionArea>Ocean Acidification Program, NOAA, Silver Spring, Maryland</wicri:regionArea>
</affiliation>
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<author><name sortKey="Jiang, Li Qing" sort="Jiang, Li Qing" uniqKey="Jiang L" first="Li-Qing" last="Jiang">Li-Qing Jiang</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff013"><addr-line>Cooperative Institute for Climate and Satellites, Earth System Science Interdisciplinary Center, University of Maryland, College Park, Maryland, United States of America</addr-line>
</nlm:aff>
<country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country>
<wicri:regionArea>Cooperative Institute for Climate and Satellites, Earth System Science Interdisciplinary Center, University of Maryland, College Park, Maryland</wicri:regionArea>
</affiliation>
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<author><name sortKey="Van Hooidonk, Ruben J" sort="Van Hooidonk, Ruben J" uniqKey="Van Hooidonk R" first="Ruben J." last="Van Hooidonk">Ruben J. Van Hooidonk</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff014"><addr-line>NOAA Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory, Ocean Chemistry and Ecosystems Division, Miami, Florida, United States of America</addr-line>
</nlm:aff>
<country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country>
<wicri:regionArea>NOAA Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory, Ocean Chemistry and Ecosystems Division, Miami, Florida</wicri:regionArea>
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<affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff015"><addr-line>Cooperative Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Studies, Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science, University of Miami, Miami, Florida, United States of America</addr-line>
</nlm:aff>
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<wicri:regionArea>Cooperative Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Studies, Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science, University of Miami, Miami, Florida</wicri:regionArea>
</affiliation>
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<author><name sortKey="Teh, Louise" sort="Teh, Louise" uniqKey="Teh L" first="Louise" last="Teh">Louise Teh</name>
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</nlm:aff>
<country xml:lang="fr">Canada</country>
<wicri:regionArea>Institute for Oceans and Fisheries, The University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia</wicri:regionArea>
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<author><name sortKey="Waldbusser, George G" sort="Waldbusser, George G" uniqKey="Waldbusser G" first="George G." last="Waldbusser">George G. Waldbusser</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff017"><addr-line>Oregon State University, College of Earth, Ocean, and Atmospheric Sciences, Corvallis, Oregon, United States of America</addr-line>
</nlm:aff>
<country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country>
<wicri:regionArea>Oregon State University, College of Earth, Ocean, and Atmospheric Sciences, Corvallis, Oregon</wicri:regionArea>
</affiliation>
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<author><name sortKey="Ritter, Jessica" sort="Ritter, Jessica" uniqKey="Ritter J" first="Jessica" last="Ritter">Jessica Ritter</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff018"><addr-line>National Wildlife Foundation, Washington, D.C., United States of America</addr-line>
</nlm:aff>
<country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country>
<wicri:regionArea>National Wildlife Foundation, Washington, D.C.</wicri:regionArea>
</affiliation>
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<front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en"><sec id="sec001"><title>Reefs and People at Risk</title>
<p>Increasing levels of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere put shallow, warm-water coral reef ecosystems, and the people who depend upon them at risk from two key global environmental stresses: 1) elevated sea surface temperature (that can cause coral bleaching and related mortality), and 2) ocean acidification. These global stressors: cannot be avoided by local management, compound local stressors, and hasten the loss of ecosystem services. Impacts to people will be most grave where a) human dependence on coral reef ecosystems is high, b) sea surface temperature reaches critical levels soonest, and c) ocean acidification levels are most severe. Where these elements align, swift action will be needed to protect people’s lives and livelihoods, but such action must be informed by data and science.</p>
</sec>
<sec id="sec002"><title>An Indicator Approach</title>
<p>Designing policies to offset potential harm to coral reef ecosystems and people requires a better understanding of where CO<sub>2</sub>
-related global environmental stresses could cause the most severe impacts. Mapping indicators has been proposed as a way of combining natural and social science data to identify policy actions even when the needed science is relatively nascent. To identify where people are at risk and where more science is needed, we map indicators of biological, physical and social science factors to understand how human dependence on coral reef ecosystems will be affected by globally-driven threats to corals expected in a high-CO<sub>2</sub>
world. Western Mexico, Micronesia, Indonesia and parts of Australia have high human dependence and will likely face severe combined threats. As a region, Southeast Asia is particularly at risk. Many of the countries most dependent upon coral reef ecosystems are places for which we have the least robust data on ocean acidification. These areas require new data and interdisciplinary scientific research to help coral reef-dependent human communities better prepare for a high CO<sub>2</sub>
world.</p>
</sec>
</div>
</front>
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<pmc article-type="research-article"><pmc-dir>properties open_access</pmc-dir>
<front><journal-meta><journal-id journal-id-type="nlm-ta">PLoS One</journal-id>
<journal-id journal-id-type="iso-abbrev">PLoS ONE</journal-id>
<journal-id journal-id-type="publisher-id">plos</journal-id>
<journal-id journal-id-type="pmc">plosone</journal-id>
<journal-title-group><journal-title>PLoS ONE</journal-title>
</journal-title-group>
<issn pub-type="epub">1932-6203</issn>
<publisher><publisher-name>Public Library of Science</publisher-name>
<publisher-loc>San Francisco, CA USA</publisher-loc>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta><article-id pub-id-type="pmid">27828972</article-id>
<article-id pub-id-type="pmc">5102364</article-id>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.1371/journal.pone.0164699</article-id>
<article-id pub-id-type="publisher-id">PONE-D-16-17323</article-id>
<article-categories><subj-group subj-group-type="heading"><subject>Research Article</subject>
</subj-group>
<subj-group subj-group-type="Discipline-v3"><subject>Biology and Life Sciences</subject>
<subj-group><subject>Marine Biology</subject>
<subj-group><subject>Coral Reefs</subject>
</subj-group>
</subj-group>
</subj-group>
<subj-group subj-group-type="Discipline-v3"><subject>Earth Sciences</subject>
<subj-group><subject>Marine and Aquatic Sciences</subject>
<subj-group><subject>Marine Biology</subject>
<subj-group><subject>Coral Reefs</subject>
</subj-group>
</subj-group>
</subj-group>
</subj-group>
<subj-group subj-group-type="Discipline-v3"><subject>Earth Sciences</subject>
<subj-group><subject>Marine and Aquatic Sciences</subject>
<subj-group><subject>Reefs</subject>
<subj-group><subject>Coral Reefs</subject>
</subj-group>
</subj-group>
</subj-group>
</subj-group>
<subj-group subj-group-type="Discipline-v3"><subject>Biology and Life Sciences</subject>
<subj-group><subject>Ecology</subject>
<subj-group><subject>Marine Ecology</subject>
</subj-group>
</subj-group>
</subj-group>
<subj-group subj-group-type="Discipline-v3"><subject>Ecology and Environmental Sciences</subject>
<subj-group><subject>Ecology</subject>
<subj-group><subject>Marine Ecology</subject>
</subj-group>
</subj-group>
</subj-group>
<subj-group subj-group-type="Discipline-v3"><subject>Biology and Life Sciences</subject>
<subj-group><subject>Marine Biology</subject>
<subj-group><subject>Marine Ecology</subject>
</subj-group>
</subj-group>
</subj-group>
<subj-group subj-group-type="Discipline-v3"><subject>Earth Sciences</subject>
<subj-group><subject>Marine and Aquatic Sciences</subject>
<subj-group><subject>Marine Biology</subject>
<subj-group><subject>Marine Ecology</subject>
</subj-group>
</subj-group>
</subj-group>
</subj-group>
<subj-group subj-group-type="Discipline-v3"><subject>Biology and Life Sciences</subject>
<subj-group><subject>Ecology</subject>
<subj-group><subject>Ecosystems</subject>
<subj-group><subject>Reef Ecosystems</subject>
</subj-group>
</subj-group>
</subj-group>
</subj-group>
<subj-group subj-group-type="Discipline-v3"><subject>Ecology and Environmental Sciences</subject>
<subj-group><subject>Ecology</subject>
<subj-group><subject>Ecosystems</subject>
<subj-group><subject>Reef Ecosystems</subject>
</subj-group>
</subj-group>
</subj-group>
</subj-group>
<subj-group subj-group-type="Discipline-v3"><subject>Physical Sciences</subject>
<subj-group><subject>Chemistry</subject>
<subj-group><subject>Chemical Reactions</subject>
<subj-group><subject>Bleaching</subject>
</subj-group>
</subj-group>
</subj-group>
</subj-group>
<subj-group subj-group-type="Discipline-v3"><subject>Physical Sciences</subject>
<subj-group><subject>Materials Science</subject>
<subj-group><subject>Material Properties</subject>
<subj-group><subject>Surface Properties</subject>
<subj-group><subject>Surface Temperature</subject>
</subj-group>
</subj-group>
</subj-group>
</subj-group>
</subj-group>
<subj-group subj-group-type="Discipline-v3"><subject>Earth Sciences</subject>
<subj-group><subject>Marine and Aquatic Sciences</subject>
<subj-group><subject>Oceanography</subject>
<subj-group><subject>Ocean Temperature</subject>
</subj-group>
</subj-group>
</subj-group>
</subj-group>
<subj-group subj-group-type="Discipline-v3"><subject>Biology and Life Sciences</subject>
<subj-group><subject>Ecology</subject>
<subj-group><subject>Community Ecology</subject>
<subj-group><subject>Ecological Risk</subject>
</subj-group>
</subj-group>
</subj-group>
</subj-group>
<subj-group subj-group-type="Discipline-v3"><subject>Ecology and Environmental Sciences</subject>
<subj-group><subject>Ecology</subject>
<subj-group><subject>Community Ecology</subject>
<subj-group><subject>Ecological Risk</subject>
</subj-group>
</subj-group>
</subj-group>
</subj-group>
<subj-group subj-group-type="Discipline-v3"><subject>Earth Sciences</subject>
<subj-group><subject>Marine and Aquatic Sciences</subject>
<subj-group><subject>Bodies of Water</subject>
<subj-group><subject>Oceans</subject>
</subj-group>
</subj-group>
</subj-group>
</subj-group>
</article-categories>
<title-group><article-title>Coral Reefs and People in a High-CO<sub>2</sub>
World: Where Can Science Make a Difference to People?</article-title>
<alt-title alt-title-type="running-head">Coral Reefs and People in a High-CO<sub>2</sub>
World</alt-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author" equal-contrib="yes"><name><surname>Pendleton</surname>
<given-names>Linwood</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff001"><sup>1</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="corresp" rid="cor001">*</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" equal-contrib="yes"><name><surname>Comte</surname>
<given-names>Adrien</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff001"><sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Langdon</surname>
<given-names>Chris</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff003"><sup>3</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Ekstrom</surname>
<given-names>Julia A.</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff004"><sup>4</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Cooley</surname>
<given-names>Sarah R.</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff005"><sup>5</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Suatoni</surname>
<given-names>Lisa</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff006"><sup>6</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Beck</surname>
<given-names>Michael W.</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff007"><sup>7</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Brander</surname>
<given-names>Luke M.</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff008"><sup>8</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Burke</surname>
<given-names>Lauretta</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff009"><sup>9</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Cinner</surname>
<given-names>Josh E.</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff010"><sup>10</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Doherty</surname>
<given-names>Carolyn</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff002"><sup>2</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Edwards</surname>
<given-names>Peter E. T.</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff011"><sup>11</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Gledhill</surname>
<given-names>Dwight</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff012"><sup>12</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Jiang</surname>
<given-names>Li-Qing</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff013"><sup>13</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>van Hooidonk</surname>
<given-names>Ruben J.</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff014"><sup>14</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff015"><sup>15</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Teh</surname>
<given-names>Louise</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff016"><sup>16</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Waldbusser</surname>
<given-names>George G.</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff017"><sup>17</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Ritter</surname>
<given-names>Jessica</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff018"><sup>18</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
</contrib-group>
<aff id="aff001"><label>1</label>
<addr-line>Université de Bretagne Occidentale, UMR6308 AMURE, IUEM, Plouzané, France</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff002"><label>2</label>
<addr-line>Duke University, Durham, North Carolina, United States of America</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff003"><label>3</label>
<addr-line>RSMAS/MBE, University of Miami, Miami, Florida, United States of America</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff004"><label>4</label>
<addr-line>University of California Davis, Policy Institute for Energy, Environment and the Economy, Davis, California, United States of America</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff005"><label>5</label>
<addr-line>Ocean Conservancy, Washington, D.C., United States of America</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff006"><label>6</label>
<addr-line>Natural Resources Defense Council, New York, New York, United States of America</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff007"><label>7</label>
<addr-line>The Nature Conservancy and the University of California, Santa Cruz, Ocean Sciences, Santa Cruz, California, United States of America</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff008"><label>8</label>
<addr-line>Institute for Environmental Studies, VU University, Amsterdam, The Netherlands</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff009"><label>9</label>
<addr-line>World Resources Institute, Washington, D.C., United States of America</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff010"><label>10</label>
<addr-line>James Cook University, ARC Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies, Townsville, Australia</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff011"><label>11</label>
<addr-line>Coral Reef Conservation Program, NOAA, Silver Spring, Maryland, United States of America</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff012"><label>12</label>
<addr-line>Ocean Acidification Program, NOAA, Silver Spring, Maryland, United States of America</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff013"><label>13</label>
<addr-line>Cooperative Institute for Climate and Satellites, Earth System Science Interdisciplinary Center, University of Maryland, College Park, Maryland, United States of America</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff014"><label>14</label>
<addr-line>NOAA Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory, Ocean Chemistry and Ecosystems Division, Miami, Florida, United States of America</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff015"><label>15</label>
<addr-line>Cooperative Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Studies, Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science, University of Miami, Miami, Florida, United States of America</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff016"><label>16</label>
<addr-line>Institute for Oceans and Fisheries, The University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff017"><label>17</label>
<addr-line>Oregon State University, College of Earth, Ocean, and Atmospheric Sciences, Corvallis, Oregon, United States of America</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff018"><label>18</label>
<addr-line>National Wildlife Foundation, Washington, D.C., United States of America</addr-line>
</aff>
<contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="editor"><name><surname>Goffredo</surname>
<given-names>Stefano</given-names>
</name>
<role>Editor</role>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="edit1"></xref>
</contrib>
</contrib-group>
<aff id="edit1"><addr-line>University of Bologna, ITALY</addr-line>
</aff>
<author-notes><fn fn-type="COI-statement" id="coi001"><p><bold>Competing Interests: </bold>
The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.</p>
</fn>
<fn fn-type="con"><p><list list-type="simple"><list-item><p><bold>Conceptualization:</bold>
LP AC CL JE SC LS MB LMB LB JC PE DG RvH JR.</p>
</list-item>
<list-item><p><bold>Data curation:</bold>
AC.</p>
</list-item>
<list-item><p><bold>Formal analysis:</bold>
LP AC CL.</p>
</list-item>
<list-item><p><bold>Funding acquisition:</bold>
LP SC LS.</p>
</list-item>
<list-item><p><bold>Investigation:</bold>
LP AC CL LJ LT LB.</p>
</list-item>
<list-item><p><bold>Methodology:</bold>
LP AC CL JE SC LS MB LMB LB JC CD PE DG LJ RvH LT GW JR.</p>
</list-item>
<list-item><p><bold>Project administration:</bold>
LP.</p>
</list-item>
<list-item><p><bold>Resources:</bold>
LMB RvH LT LJ.</p>
</list-item>
<list-item><p><bold>Supervision:</bold>
LP.</p>
</list-item>
<list-item><p><bold>Validation:</bold>
LP AC CL JE SC LS MB LMB LB JC CD PE DG LJ RvH LT GW JR.</p>
</list-item>
<list-item><p><bold>Visualization:</bold>
LP AC.</p>
</list-item>
<list-item><p><bold>Writing – original draft:</bold>
LP AC CL JE SC LS JC GW.</p>
</list-item>
<list-item><p><bold>Writing – review & editing:</bold>
LP AC CL JE SC LS MB LMB PE DG LJ RvH LT GW.</p>
</list-item>
</list>
</p>
</fn>
<corresp id="cor001">* E-mail: <email>linwood.pendleton@duke.edu</email>
</corresp>
</author-notes>
<pub-date pub-type="epub"><day>9</day>
<month>11</month>
<year>2016</year>
</pub-date>
<pub-date pub-type="collection"><year>2016</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>11</volume>
<issue>11</issue>
<elocation-id>e0164699</elocation-id>
<history><date date-type="received"><day>29</day>
<month>4</month>
<year>2016</year>
</date>
<date date-type="accepted"><day>29</day>
<month>9</month>
<year>2016</year>
</date>
</history>
<permissions><license xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/"><license-p>This is an open access article, free of all copyright, and may be freely reproduced, distributed, transmitted, modified, built upon, or otherwise used by anyone for any lawful purpose. The work is made available under the <ext-link ext-link-type="uri" xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/">Creative Commons CC0</ext-link>
public domain dedication.</license-p>
</license>
</permissions>
<self-uri content-type="pdf" xlink:href="pone.0164699.pdf"></self-uri>
<abstract><sec id="sec001"><title>Reefs and People at Risk</title>
<p>Increasing levels of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere put shallow, warm-water coral reef ecosystems, and the people who depend upon them at risk from two key global environmental stresses: 1) elevated sea surface temperature (that can cause coral bleaching and related mortality), and 2) ocean acidification. These global stressors: cannot be avoided by local management, compound local stressors, and hasten the loss of ecosystem services. Impacts to people will be most grave where a) human dependence on coral reef ecosystems is high, b) sea surface temperature reaches critical levels soonest, and c) ocean acidification levels are most severe. Where these elements align, swift action will be needed to protect people’s lives and livelihoods, but such action must be informed by data and science.</p>
</sec>
<sec id="sec002"><title>An Indicator Approach</title>
<p>Designing policies to offset potential harm to coral reef ecosystems and people requires a better understanding of where CO<sub>2</sub>
-related global environmental stresses could cause the most severe impacts. Mapping indicators has been proposed as a way of combining natural and social science data to identify policy actions even when the needed science is relatively nascent. To identify where people are at risk and where more science is needed, we map indicators of biological, physical and social science factors to understand how human dependence on coral reef ecosystems will be affected by globally-driven threats to corals expected in a high-CO<sub>2</sub>
world. Western Mexico, Micronesia, Indonesia and parts of Australia have high human dependence and will likely face severe combined threats. As a region, Southeast Asia is particularly at risk. Many of the countries most dependent upon coral reef ecosystems are places for which we have the least robust data on ocean acidification. These areas require new data and interdisciplinary scientific research to help coral reef-dependent human communities better prepare for a high CO<sub>2</sub>
world.</p>
</sec>
</abstract>
<funding-group><award-group id="award001"><funding-source><institution>Prince Albert 2 Foundation</institution>
</funding-source>
<principal-award-recipient><name><surname>Pendleton</surname>
<given-names>Linwood</given-names>
</name>
</principal-award-recipient>
</award-group>
<award-group id="award002"><funding-source><institution>Social Environmental Synthesis Center (SESYNC)</institution>
</funding-source>
<award-id>National Science Foundation DBI-1052875.</award-id>
<principal-award-recipient><name><surname>Pendleton</surname>
<given-names>Linwood</given-names>
</name>
</principal-award-recipient>
</award-group>
<award-group id="award003"><funding-source><institution-wrap><institution-id institution-id-type="funder-id">http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100001665</institution-id>
<institution>Agence Nationale de la Recherche</institution>
</institution-wrap>
</funding-source>
<award-id>ANR-10-LABX-19</award-id>
<principal-award-recipient><name><surname>Pendleton</surname>
<given-names>Linwood</given-names>
</name>
</principal-award-recipient>
</award-group>
<award-group id="award004"><funding-source><institution-wrap><institution-id institution-id-type="funder-id">http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100001665</institution-id>
<institution>Agence Nationale de la Recherche</institution>
</institution-wrap>
</funding-source>
<award-id>ANR-10-LABX-19</award-id>
<principal-award-recipient><name><surname>Comte</surname>
<given-names>Adrien</given-names>
</name>
</principal-award-recipient>
</award-group>
<funding-statement>This work was supported by the National Socio-Environmental Synthesis Center (SESYNC) under funding received from the National Science Foundation DBI-1052875, a grant from the Prince Albert II Foundation, and research effort for LP and AC was supported by the "Laboratoire d'Excellence" LabexMER (ANR-10-LABX-19), co-funded by a grant from the French government under the program "Investissements 'Avenir" and the Region of Brittany. The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript.</funding-statement>
</funding-group>
<counts><fig-count count="6"></fig-count>
<table-count count="1"></table-count>
<page-count count="21"></page-count>
</counts>
<custom-meta-group><custom-meta id="data-availability"><meta-name>Data Availability</meta-name>
<meta-value>All relevant data are within the paper and its Supporting Information files.</meta-value>
</custom-meta>
</custom-meta-group>
</article-meta>
<notes><title>Data Availability</title>
<p>All relevant data are within the paper and its Supporting Information files.</p>
</notes>
</front>
</pmc>
</record>
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