Adapting agriculture to climate change
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Auteurs : S. Mark Howden [Australie] ; Jean-François Soussana [France] ; Francesco N. Tubiello [États-Unis, Autriche] ; Netra Chhetri [États-Unis] ; Michael Dunlop [Australie] ; Holger Meinke [Pays-Bas]Source :
- Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America [ 0027-8424 ] ; 2007.
Abstract
The strong trends in climate change already evident, the likelihood of further changes occurring, and the increasing scale of potential climate impacts give urgency to addressing agricultural adaptation more coherently. There are many potential adaptation options available for marginal change of existing agricultural systems, often variations of existing climate risk management. We show that implementation of these options is likely to have substantial benefits under moderate climate change for some cropping systems. However, there are limits to their effectiveness under more severe climate changes. Hence, more systemic changes in resource allocation need to be considered, such as targeted diversification of production systems and livelihoods. We argue that achieving increased adaptation action will necessitate integration of climate change-related issues with other risk factors, such as climate variability and market risk, and with other policy domains, such as sustainable development. Dealing with the many barriers to effective adaptation will require a comprehensive and dynamic policy approach covering a range of scales and issues, for example, from the understanding by farmers of change in risk profiles to the establishment of efficient markets that facilitate response strategies. Science, too, has to adapt. Multidisciplinary problems require multidisciplinary solutions, i.e., a focus on integrated rather than disciplinary science and a strengthening of the interface with decision makers. A crucial component of this approach is the implementation of adaptation assessment frameworks that are relevant, robust, and easily operated by all stakeholders, practitioners, policymakers, and scientists.
Url:
DOI: 10.1073/pnas.0701890104
PubMed: 18077402
PubMed Central: 2148359
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<front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en"><p>The strong trends in climate change already evident, the likelihood of further changes occurring, and the increasing scale of potential climate impacts give urgency to addressing agricultural adaptation more coherently. There are many potential adaptation options available for marginal change of existing agricultural systems, often variations of existing climate risk management. We show that implementation of these options is likely to have substantial benefits under moderate climate change for some cropping systems. However, there are limits to their effectiveness under more severe climate changes. Hence, more systemic changes in resource allocation need to be considered, such as targeted diversification of production systems and livelihoods. We argue that achieving increased adaptation action will necessitate integration of climate change-related issues with other risk factors, such as climate variability and market risk, and with other policy domains, such as sustainable development. Dealing with the many barriers to effective adaptation will require a comprehensive and dynamic policy approach covering a range of scales and issues, for example, from the understanding by farmers of change in risk profiles to the establishment of efficient markets that facilitate response strategies. Science, too, has to adapt. Multidisciplinary problems require multidisciplinary solutions, i.e., a focus on integrated rather than disciplinary science and a strengthening of the interface with decision makers. A crucial component of this approach is the implementation of adaptation assessment frameworks that are relevant, robust, and easily operated by all stakeholders, practitioners, policymakers, and scientists.</p>
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<front><journal-meta><journal-id journal-id-type="nlm-ta">Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A</journal-id>
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<subj-group><subject>Research Articles</subject>
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<subj-group><subject>Biological Sciences</subject>
<subj-group><subject>Agricultural Sciences</subject>
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<title-group><article-title>Adapting agriculture to climate change</article-title>
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<contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Howden</surname>
<given-names>S. Mark</given-names>
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<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">*</xref>
<xref ref-type="corresp" rid="cor1"><sup>†</sup>
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<contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Soussana</surname>
<given-names>Jean-François</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2"><sup>‡</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Tubiello</surname>
<given-names>Francesco N.</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff3"><sup>§</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff4"><sup>¶</sup>
</xref>
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<contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Chhetri</surname>
<given-names>Netra</given-names>
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<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff5"><sup>‖</sup>
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<contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Dunlop</surname>
<given-names>Michael</given-names>
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<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">*</xref>
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<contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Meinke</surname>
<given-names>Holger</given-names>
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<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff6">**</xref>
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<aff id="aff1">*Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization, Sustainable Ecosystems, GPO Box 284, Canberra ACT 2601, Australia;</aff>
<aff id="aff2"><sup>‡</sup>
Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique, UR874, 63100 Clermont-Ferrand, France;</aff>
<aff id="aff3"><sup>§</sup>
Goddard Institute for Space Studies, Columbia University, 2880 Broadway, New York, NY 10025;</aff>
<aff id="aff4"><sup>¶</sup>
International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Schlossplatz 1, A-2361 Laxenburg, Austria;</aff>
<aff id="aff5"><sup>‖</sup>
Consortium for Science, Policy and Outcomes, Arizona State University, P.O. Box 874401, Tempe, AZ 85287-4401; and</aff>
<aff id="aff6">**Department of Plant Sciences, Wageningen University, P.O. Box 430, NL 6700 AK, Wageningen, The Netherlands</aff>
</contrib-group>
<author-notes><corresp id="cor1"><sup>†</sup>
To whom correspondence should be addressed. E-mail: <email>mark.howden@csiro.au</email>
</corresp>
<fn fn-type="edited-by"><p>Edited by William Easterling, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA, and accepted by the Editorial Board August 16, 2007</p>
</fn>
<fn fn-type="con"><p>Author contributions: S.M.H. and N.C. analyzed data; and S.M.H., J.-F.S., F.N.T., M.D., and H.M. wrote the paper.</p>
</fn>
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<issue>50</issue>
<fpage>19691</fpage>
<lpage>19696</lpage>
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<month>3</month>
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<abstract><p>The strong trends in climate change already evident, the likelihood of further changes occurring, and the increasing scale of potential climate impacts give urgency to addressing agricultural adaptation more coherently. There are many potential adaptation options available for marginal change of existing agricultural systems, often variations of existing climate risk management. We show that implementation of these options is likely to have substantial benefits under moderate climate change for some cropping systems. However, there are limits to their effectiveness under more severe climate changes. Hence, more systemic changes in resource allocation need to be considered, such as targeted diversification of production systems and livelihoods. We argue that achieving increased adaptation action will necessitate integration of climate change-related issues with other risk factors, such as climate variability and market risk, and with other policy domains, such as sustainable development. Dealing with the many barriers to effective adaptation will require a comprehensive and dynamic policy approach covering a range of scales and issues, for example, from the understanding by farmers of change in risk profiles to the establishment of efficient markets that facilitate response strategies. Science, too, has to adapt. Multidisciplinary problems require multidisciplinary solutions, i.e., a focus on integrated rather than disciplinary science and a strengthening of the interface with decision makers. A crucial component of this approach is the implementation of adaptation assessment frameworks that are relevant, robust, and easily operated by all stakeholders, practitioners, policymakers, and scientists.</p>
</abstract>
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