Predicting live birth chances for women with multiple consecutive failing IVF cycles: a simple and accurate prediction for routine medical practice
Identifieur interne : 001520 ( Pmc/Curation ); précédent : 001519; suivant : 001521Predicting live birth chances for women with multiple consecutive failing IVF cycles: a simple and accurate prediction for routine medical practice
Auteurs : Géraldine Porcu [France] ; Philippe Lehert [Belgique, Australie] ; Carolina Colella [France] ; Claude Giorgetti [France]Source :
- Reproductive Biology and Endocrinology : RB&E [ 1477-7827 ] ; 2013.
Abstract
Women having experienced several consecutive failing IVF cycles constitute a critical and particular subset of patients, for which growing perception of irremediable failure, increasing costs and IVF treatment related risks necessitate appropriate decision making when starting or not a new cycle. Predicting chances of LB might constitute a useful tool for discussion between the patient and the clinician. Our essential objective was to dispose of a simple and accurate prediction model for use in routine medical practice. The currently available predictive models applicable to general populations cannot be considered as accurate enough for this purpose.
Patients with at least four consecutive Failing cycles (CFCs) were selected. We constructed a predictive model of LB occurrence during the last cycle, by using a stepwise logistic regression, using all the baseline patient characteristics and intermediate stage variables during the four first cycles.
On as set of 151 patients, we identified five determinant predictors: the number of previous cycles with at least one gestational sac (NGS), the mean number of good-quality embryos, age, male infertility (MI) aetiology and basal FSH. Our model was characterized by a much higher discrimination as the existing models (C-statistics=0.76), and an excellent calibration.
Couples having experienced multiple IVF failures need precise and appropriate information to decide to resume or interrupt their fertility project. Our essential objective was to dispose of a simple and accurate prediction model to allow a routine practice use. Our model is adapted to this purpose: It is very simple, combines five easily collected variables in a short calculation; it is more accurate than existing models, with a fair discrimination and a well calibrated prediction.
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DOI: 10.1186/1477-7827-11-1
PubMed: 23302328
PubMed Central: 3551786
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<sourceDesc><biblStruct><analytic><title xml:lang="en" level="a" type="main">Predicting live birth chances for women with multiple consecutive failing IVF cycles: a simple and accurate prediction for routine medical practice</title>
<author><name sortKey="Porcu, Geraldine" sort="Porcu, Geraldine" uniqKey="Porcu G" first="Géraldine" last="Porcu">Géraldine Porcu</name>
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<author><name sortKey="Lehert, Philippe" sort="Lehert, Philippe" uniqKey="Lehert P" first="Philippe" last="Lehert">Philippe Lehert</name>
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<author><name sortKey="Colella, Carolina" sort="Colella, Carolina" uniqKey="Colella C" first="Carolina" last="Colella">Carolina Colella</name>
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<author><name sortKey="Giorgetti, Claude" sort="Giorgetti, Claude" uniqKey="Giorgetti C" first="Claude" last="Giorgetti">Claude Giorgetti</name>
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<front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en"><sec><title>Background</title>
<p>Women having experienced several consecutive failing IVF cycles constitute a critical and particular subset of patients, for which growing perception of irremediable failure, increasing costs and IVF treatment related risks necessitate appropriate decision making when starting or not a new cycle. Predicting chances of LB might constitute a useful tool for discussion between the patient and the clinician. Our essential objective was to dispose of a simple and accurate prediction model for use in routine medical practice. The currently available predictive models applicable to general populations cannot be considered as accurate enough for this purpose.</p>
</sec>
<sec><title>Methods</title>
<p>Patients with at least four consecutive Failing cycles (CFCs) were selected. We constructed a predictive model of LB occurrence during the last cycle, by using a stepwise logistic regression, using all the baseline patient characteristics and intermediate stage variables during the four first cycles.</p>
</sec>
<sec><title>Results</title>
<p>On as set of 151 patients, we identified five determinant predictors: the number of previous cycles with at least one gestational sac (NGS), the mean number of good-quality embryos, age, male infertility (MI) aetiology and basal FSH. Our model was characterized by a much higher discrimination as the existing models (C-statistics=0.76), and an excellent calibration.</p>
</sec>
<sec><title>Conclusions</title>
<p>Couples having experienced multiple IVF failures need precise and appropriate information to decide to resume or interrupt their fertility project. Our essential objective was to dispose of a simple and accurate prediction model to allow a routine practice use. Our model is adapted to this purpose: It is very simple, combines five easily collected variables in a short calculation; it is more accurate than existing models, with a fair discrimination and a well calibrated prediction.</p>
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<front><journal-meta><journal-id journal-id-type="nlm-ta">Reprod Biol Endocrinol</journal-id>
<journal-id journal-id-type="iso-abbrev">Reprod. Biol. Endocrinol</journal-id>
<journal-title-group><journal-title>Reproductive Biology and Endocrinology : RB&E</journal-title>
</journal-title-group>
<issn pub-type="epub">1477-7827</issn>
<publisher><publisher-name>BioMed Central</publisher-name>
</publisher>
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<article-meta><article-id pub-id-type="pmid">23302328</article-id>
<article-id pub-id-type="pmc">3551786</article-id>
<article-id pub-id-type="publisher-id">1477-7827-11-1</article-id>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.1186/1477-7827-11-1</article-id>
<article-categories><subj-group subj-group-type="heading"><subject>Research</subject>
</subj-group>
</article-categories>
<title-group><article-title>Predicting live birth chances for women with multiple consecutive failing IVF cycles: a simple and accurate prediction for routine medical practice</article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author" id="A1"><name><surname>Porcu</surname>
<given-names>Géraldine</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="I1">1</xref>
<email>geraldine.porcu@free.fr</email>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes" id="A2"><name><surname>Lehert</surname>
<given-names>Philippe</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="I2">2</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="I3">3</xref>
<email>philippe.lehert@gmail.com</email>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" id="A3"><name><surname>Colella</surname>
<given-names>Carolina</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="I4">4</xref>
<email>carolina.colella@merckgroup.com</email>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" id="A4"><name><surname>Giorgetti</surname>
<given-names>Claude</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="I1">1</xref>
<email>giorgetti.claude@wanadoo.fr</email>
</contrib>
</contrib-group>
<aff id="I1"><label>1</label>
Institut de Médecine de la Reproduction, Marseille, F-13417, France</aff>
<aff id="I2"><label>2</label>
Faculty of Economics, University of Louvain, Mons, B-7000, Belgium</aff>
<aff id="I3"><label>3</label>
Faculty of Medicine, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, 3010, Australia</aff>
<aff id="I4"><label>4</label>
Medical Advisor Fertilility, Merck Serono s.a.s., 37 rue Saint-Romain, Lyon cedex 08, F-69379, France</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="collection"><year>2013</year>
</pub-date>
<pub-date pub-type="epub"><day>9</day>
<month>1</month>
<year>2013</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>11</volume>
<fpage>1</fpage>
<lpage>1</lpage>
<history><date date-type="received"><day>8</day>
<month>10</month>
<year>2012</year>
</date>
<date date-type="accepted"><day>3</day>
<month>1</month>
<year>2013</year>
</date>
</history>
<permissions><copyright-statement>Copyright ©2013 Porcu et al.; licensee BioMed Central Ltd.</copyright-statement>
<copyright-year>2013</copyright-year>
<copyright-holder>Porcu et al.; licensee BioMed Central Ltd.</copyright-holder>
<license license-type="open-access" xlink:href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0"><license-p>This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (<ext-link ext-link-type="uri" xlink:href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0">http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0</ext-link>
), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.</license-p>
</license>
</permissions>
<self-uri xlink:href="http://www.rbej.com/content/11/1/1"></self-uri>
<abstract><sec><title>Background</title>
<p>Women having experienced several consecutive failing IVF cycles constitute a critical and particular subset of patients, for which growing perception of irremediable failure, increasing costs and IVF treatment related risks necessitate appropriate decision making when starting or not a new cycle. Predicting chances of LB might constitute a useful tool for discussion between the patient and the clinician. Our essential objective was to dispose of a simple and accurate prediction model for use in routine medical practice. The currently available predictive models applicable to general populations cannot be considered as accurate enough for this purpose.</p>
</sec>
<sec><title>Methods</title>
<p>Patients with at least four consecutive Failing cycles (CFCs) were selected. We constructed a predictive model of LB occurrence during the last cycle, by using a stepwise logistic regression, using all the baseline patient characteristics and intermediate stage variables during the four first cycles.</p>
</sec>
<sec><title>Results</title>
<p>On as set of 151 patients, we identified five determinant predictors: the number of previous cycles with at least one gestational sac (NGS), the mean number of good-quality embryos, age, male infertility (MI) aetiology and basal FSH. Our model was characterized by a much higher discrimination as the existing models (C-statistics=0.76), and an excellent calibration.</p>
</sec>
<sec><title>Conclusions</title>
<p>Couples having experienced multiple IVF failures need precise and appropriate information to decide to resume or interrupt their fertility project. Our essential objective was to dispose of a simple and accurate prediction model to allow a routine practice use. Our model is adapted to this purpose: It is very simple, combines five easily collected variables in a short calculation; it is more accurate than existing models, with a fair discrimination and a well calibrated prediction.</p>
</sec>
</abstract>
<kwd-group><kwd>IVF</kwd>
<kwd>ICSI</kwd>
<kwd>Predictive model</kwd>
</kwd-group>
</article-meta>
</front>
</pmc>
</record>
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