Humans and seasonal climate variability threaten large-bodied coral reef fish with small ranges
Identifieur interne : 000756 ( Pmc/Curation ); précédent : 000755; suivant : 000757Humans and seasonal climate variability threaten large-bodied coral reef fish with small ranges
Auteurs : C. Mellin [Australie] ; D. Mouillot [France, Australie] ; M. Kulbicki [France] ; T. R. Mcclanahan [États-Unis] ; L. Vigliola [France] ; C. J. A. Bradshaw [Australie] ; R. E. Brainard [États-Unis] ; P. Chabanet [France] ; G. J. Edgar [Australie] ; D. A. Fordham [Australie] ; A. M. Friedlander [États-Unis] ; V. Parravicini [Australie, France] ; A. M. M. Sequeira [Australie] ; R. D. Stuart-Smith [Australie] ; L. Wantiez [France] ; M. J. Caley [Australie]Source :
- Nature Communications [ 2041-1723 ] ; 2016.
Abstract
Coral reefs are among the most species-rich and threatened ecosystems on Earth, yet the extent to which human stressors determine species occurrences, compared with biogeography or environmental conditions, remains largely unknown. With ever-increasing human-mediated disturbances on these ecosystems, an important question is not only how many species can inhabit local communities, but also which biological traits determine species that can persist (or not) above particular disturbance thresholds. Here we show that human pressure and seasonal climate variability are disproportionately and negatively associated with the occurrence of large-bodied and geographically small-ranging fishes within local coral reef communities. These species are 67% less likely to occur where human impact and temperature seasonality exceed critical thresholds, such as in the marine biodiversity hotspot: the Coral Triangle. Our results identify the most sensitive species and critical thresholds of human and climatic stressors, providing opportunity for targeted conservation intervention to prevent local extinctions.
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DOI: 10.1038/ncomms10491
PubMed: 26839155
PubMed Central: 4742806
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Mellin</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="a1"><institution>Australian Institute of Marine Science</institution>, PMB No. 3, Townsville MC, Townsville, Queensland 4810,<country>Australia</country></nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">Australie</country><wicri:regionArea># see nlm:aff country strict</wicri:regionArea></affiliation><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="a2"><institution>The Environment Institute and School of Biological Sciences, The University of Adelaide</institution>, Adelaide, South Australia 5005,<country>Australia</country></nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">Australie</country><wicri:regionArea># see nlm:aff country strict</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Mouillot, D" sort="Mouillot, D" uniqKey="Mouillot D" first="D." last="Mouillot">D. 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Mellin</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="a1"><institution>Australian Institute of Marine Science</institution>, PMB No. 3, Townsville MC, Townsville, Queensland 4810,<country>Australia</country></nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">Australie</country><wicri:regionArea># see nlm:aff country strict</wicri:regionArea></affiliation><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="a2"><institution>The Environment Institute and School of Biological Sciences, The University of Adelaide</institution>, Adelaide, South Australia 5005,<country>Australia</country></nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">Australie</country><wicri:regionArea># see nlm:aff country strict</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Mouillot, D" sort="Mouillot, D" uniqKey="Mouillot D" first="D." last="Mouillot">D. Mouillot</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="a3"><institution>UMR 9190 MARBEC, IRD-CNRS-IFREMER-UM, Université de Montpellier</institution>, 34095 Montpellier,<country>France</country></nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">France</country><wicri:regionArea># see nlm:aff country strict</wicri:regionArea></affiliation><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="a4"><institution>Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies, James Cook University</institution>, Townsville, Queensland 4811,<country>Australia</country></nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">Australie</country><wicri:regionArea># see nlm:aff country strict</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Kulbicki, M" sort="Kulbicki, M" uniqKey="Kulbicki M" first="M." last="Kulbicki">M. Kulbicki</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="a5"><institution>Institut de Recherche pour le Développement, UMR ‘Entropie', LABEX Corail, Université de Perpignan</institution>, 66000 Perpignan,<country>France</country></nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">France</country><wicri:regionArea># see nlm:aff country strict</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Mcclanahan, T R" sort="Mcclanahan, T R" uniqKey="Mcclanahan T" first="T. R." last="Mcclanahan">T. R. Mcclanahan</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="a6"><institution>Marine Programs, Wildlife Conservation Society</institution>, Bronx, New York 10460,<country>USA</country></nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country><wicri:regionArea># see nlm:aff country strict</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Vigliola, L" sort="Vigliola, L" uniqKey="Vigliola L" first="L." last="Vigliola">L. Vigliola</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="a7"><institution>Institut de Recherche pour le Développement, UMR ‘Entropie', LABEX Corail</institution>, BP A5–98848 Nouméa, New Caledonia,<country>France</country></nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">France</country><wicri:regionArea># see nlm:aff country strict</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Bradshaw, C J A" sort="Bradshaw, C J A" uniqKey="Bradshaw C" first="C. J. A." last="Bradshaw">C. J. A. Bradshaw</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="a2"><institution>The Environment Institute and School of Biological Sciences, The University of Adelaide</institution>, Adelaide, South Australia 5005,<country>Australia</country></nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">Australie</country><wicri:regionArea># see nlm:aff country strict</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Brainard, R E" sort="Brainard, R E" uniqKey="Brainard R" first="R. E." last="Brainard">R. E. Brainard</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="a8"><institution>NOAA, National Marine Fisheries Service, Pacific Islands Fisheries Science Center</institution>, 1125B Ala Moana Blvd, Honolulu, Hawaii 96814,<country>USA</country></nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country><wicri:regionArea># see nlm:aff country strict</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Chabanet, P" sort="Chabanet, P" uniqKey="Chabanet P" first="P." last="Chabanet">P. Chabanet</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="a9"><institution>Institut de Recherche pour le Développement, UMR ‘Entropie', LABEX Corail</institution>, BP 50172, CS 41095, FR-97495 Ste Clotilde, Reunion Island,<country>France</country></nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">France</country><wicri:regionArea># see nlm:aff country strict</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Edgar, G J" sort="Edgar, G J" uniqKey="Edgar G" first="G. J." last="Edgar">G. J. Edgar</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="a10"><institution>Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies, University of Tasmania</institution>, Private Bag 49, Hobart, Tasmania 7001,<country>Australia</country></nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">Australie</country><wicri:regionArea># see nlm:aff country strict</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Fordham, D A" sort="Fordham, D A" uniqKey="Fordham D" first="D. A." last="Fordham">D. A. Fordham</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="a2"><institution>The Environment Institute and School of Biological Sciences, The University of Adelaide</institution>, Adelaide, South Australia 5005,<country>Australia</country></nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">Australie</country><wicri:regionArea># see nlm:aff country strict</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Friedlander, A M" sort="Friedlander, A M" uniqKey="Friedlander A" first="A. M." last="Friedlander">A. M. Friedlander</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="a11"><institution>Pristine Seas, National Geographic Society</institution>, Washington DC 20036,<country>USA</country></nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country><wicri:regionArea># see nlm:aff country strict</wicri:regionArea></affiliation><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="a12"><institution>Fisheries Ecology Research Lab, University of Hawaii at Manoa</institution>, Honolulu, Hawaii 096822,<country>USA</country></nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country><wicri:regionArea># see nlm:aff country strict</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Parravicini, V" sort="Parravicini, V" uniqKey="Parravicini V" first="V." last="Parravicini">V. Parravicini</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="a4"><institution>Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies, James Cook University</institution>, Townsville, Queensland 4811,<country>Australia</country></nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">Australie</country><wicri:regionArea># see nlm:aff country strict</wicri:regionArea></affiliation><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="a13"><institution>Centre de Synthèse et d'Analyse sur la Biodiversité (Fondation pour la Recherche en Biodiversité), Immeuble Henri Poincaré, Domaine du Petit Arbois</institution>, Aix-en-Provence 13100,<country>France</country></nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">France</country><wicri:regionArea># see nlm:aff country strict</wicri:regionArea></affiliation><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="a14"><institution>CRIOBE, USR 3278 CNRS-EPHE-UPVD, LABEX Corail, University of Perpignan</institution>, 66860 Perpignan,<country>France</country></nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">France</country><wicri:regionArea># see nlm:aff country strict</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Sequeira, A M M" sort="Sequeira, A M M" uniqKey="Sequeira A" first="A. M. M." last="Sequeira">A. M. M. Sequeira</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="a15"><institution>IOMRC and The UWA Oceans Institute, School of Animal Biology and Centre for Marine Futures, The University of Western Australia M470</institution>, 35 Stirling Highway, Crawley, Western Australia 6009,<country>Australia</country></nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">Australie</country><wicri:regionArea># see nlm:aff country strict</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Stuart Smith, R D" sort="Stuart Smith, R D" uniqKey="Stuart Smith R" first="R. D." last="Stuart-Smith">R. D. Stuart-Smith</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="a10"><institution>Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies, University of Tasmania</institution>, Private Bag 49, Hobart, Tasmania 7001,<country>Australia</country></nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">Australie</country><wicri:regionArea># see nlm:aff country strict</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Wantiez, L" sort="Wantiez, L" uniqKey="Wantiez L" first="L." last="Wantiez">L. Wantiez</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="a16"><institution>Research Unit LIVE (EA4243), University of New Caledonia</institution>, Noumea, New Caledonia 98851,<country>France</country></nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">France</country><wicri:regionArea># see nlm:aff country strict</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Caley, M J" sort="Caley, M J" uniqKey="Caley M" first="M. J." last="Caley">M. J. Caley</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="a1"><institution>Australian Institute of Marine Science</institution>, PMB No. 3, Townsville MC, Townsville, Queensland 4810,<country>Australia</country></nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">Australie</country><wicri:regionArea># see nlm:aff country strict</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author></analytic><series><title level="j">Nature Communications</title><idno type="eISSN">2041-1723</idno><imprint><date when="2016">2016</date></imprint></series></biblStruct></sourceDesc></fileDesc><profileDesc><textClass></textClass></profileDesc></teiHeader><front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en"><p>Coral reefs are among the most species-rich and threatened ecosystems on Earth, yet the extent to which human stressors determine species occurrences, compared with biogeography or environmental conditions, remains largely unknown. With ever-increasing human-mediated disturbances on these ecosystems, an important question is not only how many species can inhabit local communities, but also which biological traits determine species that can persist (or not) above particular disturbance thresholds. Here we show that human pressure and seasonal climate variability are disproportionately and negatively associated with the occurrence of large-bodied and geographically small-ranging fishes within local coral reef communities. These species are 67% less likely to occur where human impact and temperature seasonality exceed critical thresholds, such as in the marine biodiversity hotspot: the Coral Triangle. Our results identify the most sensitive species and critical thresholds of human and climatic stressors, providing opportunity for targeted conservation intervention to prevent local extinctions.</p></div></front><back><div1 type="bibliography"><listBibl><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Nogues Bravo, D" uniqKey="Nogues Bravo D">D. Nogues-Bravo</name></author><author><name sortKey="Araujo, M B" uniqKey="Araujo M">M. B. Araujo</name></author><author><name sortKey="Romdal, T" uniqKey="Romdal T">T. Romdal</name></author><author><name sortKey="Rahbek, C" uniqKey="Rahbek C">C. Rahbek</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Tittensor, D P" uniqKey="Tittensor D">D. P. Tittensor</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Bellwood, D R" uniqKey="Bellwood D">D. R. Bellwood</name></author><author><name sortKey="Hughes, T" uniqKey="Hughes T">T. 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<front><journal-meta><journal-id journal-id-type="nlm-ta">Nat Commun</journal-id><journal-id journal-id-type="iso-abbrev">Nat Commun</journal-id><journal-title-group><journal-title>Nature Communications</journal-title></journal-title-group><issn pub-type="epub">2041-1723</issn><publisher><publisher-name>Nature Publishing Group</publisher-name></publisher></journal-meta><article-meta><article-id pub-id-type="pmid">26839155</article-id><article-id pub-id-type="pmc">4742806</article-id><article-id pub-id-type="pii">ncomms10491</article-id><article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.1038/ncomms10491</article-id><article-categories><subj-group subj-group-type="heading"><subject>Article</subject></subj-group></article-categories><title-group><article-title>Humans and seasonal climate variability threaten large-bodied coral reef fish with small ranges</article-title></title-group><contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Mellin</surname><given-names>C.</given-names></name><xref ref-type="corresp" rid="c1">a</xref><xref ref-type="aff" rid="a1">1</xref><xref ref-type="aff" rid="a2">2</xref></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Mouillot</surname><given-names>D.</given-names></name><xref ref-type="aff" rid="a3">3</xref><xref ref-type="aff" rid="a4">4</xref></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Kulbicki</surname><given-names>M.</given-names></name><xref ref-type="aff" rid="a5">5</xref></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>McClanahan</surname><given-names>T. R.</given-names></name><xref ref-type="aff" rid="a6">6</xref></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Vigliola</surname><given-names>L.</given-names></name><xref ref-type="aff" rid="a7">7</xref></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Bradshaw</surname><given-names>C. J. A.</given-names></name><xref ref-type="aff" rid="a2">2</xref></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Brainard</surname><given-names>R. E.</given-names></name><xref ref-type="aff" rid="a8">8</xref></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Chabanet</surname><given-names>P.</given-names></name><xref ref-type="aff" rid="a9">9</xref></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Edgar</surname><given-names>G. J.</given-names></name><xref ref-type="aff" rid="a10">10</xref></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Fordham</surname><given-names>D. A.</given-names></name><xref ref-type="aff" rid="a2">2</xref></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Friedlander</surname><given-names>A. M.</given-names></name><xref ref-type="aff" rid="a11">11</xref><xref ref-type="aff" rid="a12">12</xref></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Parravicini</surname><given-names>V.</given-names></name><xref ref-type="aff" rid="a4">4</xref><xref ref-type="aff" rid="a13">13</xref><xref ref-type="aff" rid="a14">14</xref></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Sequeira</surname><given-names>A. M. M.</given-names></name><xref ref-type="aff" rid="a15">15</xref></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Stuart-Smith</surname><given-names>R. D.</given-names></name><xref ref-type="aff" rid="a10">10</xref></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Wantiez</surname><given-names>L.</given-names></name><xref ref-type="aff" rid="a16">16</xref><contrib-id contrib-id-type="orcid">http://orcid.org/0000-0001-5024-2057</contrib-id></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Caley</surname><given-names>M. J.</given-names></name><xref ref-type="aff" rid="a1">1</xref></contrib><aff id="a1"><label>1</label><institution>Australian Institute of Marine Science</institution>, PMB No. 3, Townsville MC, Townsville, Queensland 4810,<country>Australia</country></aff><aff id="a2"><label>2</label><institution>The Environment Institute and School of Biological Sciences, The University of Adelaide</institution>, Adelaide, South Australia 5005,<country>Australia</country></aff><aff id="a3"><label>3</label><institution>UMR 9190 MARBEC, IRD-CNRS-IFREMER-UM, Université de Montpellier</institution>, 34095 Montpellier,<country>France</country></aff><aff id="a4"><label>4</label><institution>Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies, James Cook University</institution>, Townsville, Queensland 4811,<country>Australia</country></aff><aff id="a5"><label>5</label><institution>Institut de Recherche pour le Développement, UMR ‘Entropie', LABEX Corail, Université de Perpignan</institution>, 66000 Perpignan,<country>France</country></aff><aff id="a6"><label>6</label><institution>Marine Programs, Wildlife Conservation Society</institution>, Bronx, New York 10460,<country>USA</country></aff><aff id="a7"><label>7</label><institution>Institut de Recherche pour le Développement, UMR ‘Entropie', LABEX Corail</institution>, BP A5–98848 Nouméa, New Caledonia,<country>France</country></aff><aff id="a8"><label>8</label><institution>NOAA, National Marine Fisheries Service, Pacific Islands Fisheries Science Center</institution>, 1125B Ala Moana Blvd, Honolulu, Hawaii 96814,<country>USA</country></aff><aff id="a9"><label>9</label><institution>Institut de Recherche pour le Développement, UMR ‘Entropie', LABEX Corail</institution>, BP 50172, CS 41095, FR-97495 Ste Clotilde, Reunion Island,<country>France</country></aff><aff id="a10"><label>10</label><institution>Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies, University of Tasmania</institution>, Private Bag 49, Hobart, Tasmania 7001,<country>Australia</country></aff><aff id="a11"><label>11</label><institution>Pristine Seas, National Geographic Society</institution>, Washington DC 20036,<country>USA</country></aff><aff id="a12"><label>12</label><institution>Fisheries Ecology Research Lab, University of Hawaii at Manoa</institution>, Honolulu, Hawaii 096822,<country>USA</country></aff><aff id="a13"><label>13</label><institution>Centre de Synthèse et d'Analyse sur la Biodiversité (Fondation pour la Recherche en Biodiversité), Immeuble Henri Poincaré, Domaine du Petit Arbois</institution>, Aix-en-Provence 13100,<country>France</country></aff><aff id="a14"><label>14</label><institution>CRIOBE, USR 3278 CNRS-EPHE-UPVD, LABEX Corail, University of Perpignan</institution>, 66860 Perpignan,<country>France</country></aff><aff id="a15"><label>15</label><institution>IOMRC and The UWA Oceans Institute, School of Animal Biology and Centre for Marine Futures, The University of Western Australia M470</institution>, 35 Stirling Highway, Crawley, Western Australia 6009,<country>Australia</country></aff><aff id="a16"><label>16</label><institution>Research Unit LIVE (EA4243), University of New Caledonia</institution>, Noumea, New Caledonia 98851,<country>France</country></aff></contrib-group><author-notes><corresp id="c1"><label>a</label><email>camille.mellin@adelaide.edu.au</email></corresp></author-notes><pub-date pub-type="epub"><day>03</day><month>02</month><year>2016</year></pub-date><pub-date pub-type="collection"><year>2016</year></pub-date><volume>7</volume><elocation-id>10491</elocation-id><history><date date-type="received"><day>29</day><month>10</month><year>2014</year></date><date date-type="accepted"><day>18</day><month>12</month><year>2015</year></date></history><permissions><copyright-statement>Copyright © 2016, Nature Publishing Group, a division of Macmillan Publishers Limited. All Rights Reserved.</copyright-statement><copyright-year>2016</copyright-year><copyright-holder>Nature Publishing Group, a division of Macmillan Publishers Limited. All Rights Reserved.</copyright-holder><license license-type="open-access" xlink:href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"><pmc-comment>author-paid</pmc-comment>
<license-p>This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article's Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in the credit line; if the material is not included under the Creative Commons license, users will need to obtain permission from the license holder to reproduce the material. To view a copy of this license, visit <ext-link ext-link-type="uri" xlink:href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/</ext-link></license-p></license></permissions><abstract><p>Coral reefs are among the most species-rich and threatened ecosystems on Earth, yet the extent to which human stressors determine species occurrences, compared with biogeography or environmental conditions, remains largely unknown. With ever-increasing human-mediated disturbances on these ecosystems, an important question is not only how many species can inhabit local communities, but also which biological traits determine species that can persist (or not) above particular disturbance thresholds. Here we show that human pressure and seasonal climate variability are disproportionately and negatively associated with the occurrence of large-bodied and geographically small-ranging fishes within local coral reef communities. These species are 67% less likely to occur where human impact and temperature seasonality exceed critical thresholds, such as in the marine biodiversity hotspot: the Coral Triangle. Our results identify the most sensitive species and critical thresholds of human and climatic stressors, providing opportunity for targeted conservation intervention to prevent local extinctions.</p></abstract><abstract abstract-type="web-summary"><p><inline-graphic id="i1" xlink:href="ncomms10491-i1.jpg"></inline-graphic>Knowing which species traits may confer resilience to human-mediated stressors will help predict future impacts on biodiversity. Here, Mellin <italic>et al</italic>. show that large bodied fish with small geographic ranges are disproportionately affected by the negative impacts of human disturbance and climate variability.</p></abstract></article-meta></front><floats-group><fig id="f1"><label>Figure 1</label><caption><title>Influence of body size, geographic range size and their interactions, on fish occurrence patterns.</title><p>(<bold>a</bold>) Percent variation explained in species probability of occurrence by biogeography, energy (temperature and primary productivity), area, and human pressure, and as a function of maximum adult total length (body size, in cm; log scale) and geographic extent of occurrence (geographic range size, in 10<sup>6</sup> km<sup>2</sup>). (<bold>b</bold>) Relationship between geographic range size and the relative contribution of energy (top) and human pressure (bottom) to the variation explained in fish occurrence patterns as a function of maximum adult body size. Envelopes indicate 95% confidence intervals.</p></caption><graphic xlink:href="ncomms10491-f1"></graphic></fig><fig id="f2"><label>Figure 2</label><caption><title>Predicted probability of occurrence and associated thresholds for species of increasing body size in response to biogeography, energy, area-related correlates and human impact.</title><p>Only the relationships with the strongest correlates in each category are shown, with <italic>Dist2Land</italic>: distance to nearest land mass, in km; <italic>ReefArea</italic><sub><italic>50</italic></sub>: reef area, in km<sup>2</sup>; SST<sub>sdev</sub>: seasonal deviation (that is, seasonality) in sea surface temperature, in °C. For each plot, the continuous line represents the mean effect across species and the envelope indicates the 95% confidence interval. Red dots indicate critical thresholds in the mean effect across species (Davies test, <italic>P</italic><0.05). Dotted lines show the response of small-ranging species (first quartile of geographic range sizes), truncated to represent only the range of values where they occur (up to the 98th percentile). Contribution daggers reflect the change in correlate contribution as body size increases.</p></caption><graphic xlink:href="ncomms10491-f2"></graphic></fig><fig id="f3"><label>Figure 3</label><caption><title>Maps of human and climate seasonal variability, and predicted probabilities of large fish occurrence.</title><p>(<bold>a</bold>) Human impact and (<bold>b</bold>) predicted probability of occurrence of large fishes (body size >50 cm) within Indo-Pacific reefs in response to human impact; (<bold>c</bold>) Seasonal deviation (that is, seasonality) in sea surface temperature (SST<sub>sdev</sub>) and (<bold>d</bold>) predicted probability of occurrence of large fishes in response to SST<sub>sdev</sub>. (<bold>a</bold>,<bold>c</bold>) Insets show the distribution of (<bold>a</bold>) human impact and (<bold>c</bold>) SST<sub>sdev</sub> across the study area. (<bold>b</bold>,<bold>d</bold>) Insets show the partial effect of (<bold>b</bold>) human impact and (<bold>d</bold>) SST<sub>sdev</sub> averaged across large fishes and the 95% confidence interval. The triangle indicates the location of the Coral Triangle. On each plot, the mid-point of the colour scale corresponds to the critical threshold in the mean effect across species (Davies test, <italic>P</italic><0.05).</p></caption><graphic xlink:href="ncomms10491-f3"></graphic></fig><table-wrap position="float" id="t1"><label>Table 1</label><caption><title>Critical thresholds in the probability of occurrence of fish species of increasing body size in response to biogeography, energy, area-related correlates and human impact.</title></caption><table frame="hsides" rules="groups" border="1"><colgroup><col align="left"></col><col align="left"></col><col align="left"></col><col align="center"></col><col align="char" char="±"></col><col align="char" char="."></col><col align="char" char="."></col></colgroup><thead valign="bottom"><tr><th align="left" valign="top" charoff="50"><bold>Fish body size (cm)</bold></th><th align="left" valign="top" charoff="50"><bold>Hypothesis</bold></th><th align="left" valign="top" charoff="50"><bold>Correlate</bold></th><th align="center" valign="top" charoff="50"><bold>Unit</bold></th><th align="center" valign="top" char="±" charoff="50"><bold>Threshold (</bold><italic><bold>T</bold></italic><bold>)</bold></th><th colspan="2" align="center" valign="top" char="." charoff="50"><bold>Rate of change</bold><hr></hr></th></tr><tr><th align="left" valign="top" charoff="50"> </th><th align="left" valign="top" charoff="50"> </th><th align="left" valign="top" charoff="50"> </th><th align="center" valign="top" charoff="50"> </th><th align="char" valign="top" char="±" charoff="50"> </th><th align="center" valign="top" char="." charoff="50"><bold>Before</bold><italic><bold>T</bold></italic></th><th align="center" valign="top" char="." charoff="50"><bold>After</bold><italic><bold>T</bold></italic></th></tr></thead><tbody valign="top"><tr><td align="left" valign="top" charoff="50"><15</td><td align="left" valign="top" charoff="50">Biogeography</td><td align="left" valign="top" charoff="50">Dist2Land</td><td align="center" valign="top" charoff="50">km</td><td align="char" valign="top" char="±" charoff="50">494.1±13.0</td><td align="char" valign="top" char="." charoff="50">−1.40</td><td align="char" valign="top" char="." charoff="50">−0.08</td></tr><tr><td align="left" valign="top" charoff="50"><15</td><td align="left" valign="top" charoff="50">Area</td><td align="left" valign="top" charoff="50">ReefArea<sub>50</sub></td><td align="center" valign="top" charoff="50">km<sup>2</sup></td><td align="char" valign="top" char="±" charoff="50">1006.0±25.4</td><td align="char" valign="top" char="." charoff="50">1.20</td><td align="char" valign="top" char="." charoff="50">−1.91</td></tr><tr><td align="left" valign="top" charoff="50"><15</td><td align="left" valign="top" charoff="50">Area</td><td align="left" valign="top" charoff="50">ReefArea<sub>50</sub></td><td align="center" valign="top" charoff="50">km<sup>2</sup></td><td align="char" valign="top" char="±" charoff="50">1109.0±36.7</td><td align="char" valign="top" char="." charoff="50">0.26</td><td align="char" valign="top" char="." charoff="50">−0.93</td></tr><tr><td align="left" valign="top" charoff="50"><15</td><td align="left" valign="top" charoff="50">Energy</td><td align="left" valign="top" charoff="50">SST<sub>sdev</sub></td><td align="center" valign="top" charoff="50">°C</td><td align="char" valign="top" char="±" charoff="50">3.4±0.1</td><td align="char" valign="top" char="." charoff="50">1.53</td><td align="char" valign="top" char="." charoff="50">0.00</td></tr><tr><td align="left" valign="top" charoff="50"><15</td><td align="left" valign="top" charoff="50">Human pressure</td><td align="left" valign="top" charoff="50">Human impact</td><td align="center" valign="top" charoff="50">—</td><td align="char" valign="top" char="±" charoff="50">36.3±0.8</td><td align="char" valign="top" char="." charoff="50">0.00</td><td align="char" valign="top" char="." charoff="50">1.10</td></tr><tr><td align="left" valign="top" charoff="50">15–50</td><td align="left" valign="top" charoff="50">Biogeography</td><td align="left" valign="top" charoff="50">Dist2Land</td><td align="center" valign="top" charoff="50">km</td><td align="char" valign="top" char="±" charoff="50">2868.0±56.7</td><td align="char" valign="top" char="." charoff="50">0.03</td><td align="char" valign="top" char="." charoff="50">0.71</td></tr><tr><td align="left" valign="top" charoff="50">15–50</td><td align="left" valign="top" charoff="50">Area</td><td align="left" valign="top" charoff="50">ReefArea<sub>50</sub></td><td align="center" valign="top" charoff="50">km<sup>2</sup></td><td align="char" valign="top" char="±" charoff="50">1021.0±30.3</td><td align="char" valign="top" char="." charoff="50">1.05</td><td align="char" valign="top" char="." charoff="50">−0.02</td></tr><tr><td align="left" valign="top" charoff="50">15–50</td><td align="left" valign="top" charoff="50">Energy</td><td align="left" valign="top" charoff="50">SST<sub>sdev</sub></td><td align="center" valign="top" charoff="50">°C</td><td align="char" valign="top" char="±" charoff="50">1.2±0.05</td><td align="char" valign="top" char="." charoff="50">−2.42</td><td align="char" valign="top" char="." charoff="50">0.22</td></tr><tr><td align="left" valign="top" charoff="50">15–50</td><td align="left" valign="top" charoff="50">Human pressure</td><td align="left" valign="top" charoff="50">Human impact</td><td align="center" valign="top" charoff="50">—</td><td align="char" valign="top" char="±" charoff="50">30.6±0.6</td><td align="char" valign="top" char="." charoff="50">−0.06</td><td align="char" valign="top" char="." charoff="50">0.88</td></tr><tr><td align="left" valign="top" charoff="50">>50</td><td align="left" valign="top" charoff="50">Biogeography</td><td align="left" valign="top" charoff="50">Dist2Land</td><td align="center" valign="top" charoff="50">km</td><td align="char" valign="top" char="±" charoff="50">2771.0±42.7</td><td align="char" valign="top" char="." charoff="50">0.17</td><td align="char" valign="top" char="." charoff="50">1.35</td></tr><tr><td align="left" valign="top" charoff="50">>50</td><td align="left" valign="top" charoff="50">Area</td><td align="left" valign="top" charoff="50">ReefArea<sub>50</sub></td><td align="center" valign="top" charoff="50">km<sup>2</sup></td><td align="char" valign="top" char="±" charoff="50">956.0±24.8</td><td align="char" valign="top" char="." charoff="50">0.95</td><td align="char" valign="top" char="." charoff="50">0.03</td></tr><tr><td align="left" valign="top" charoff="50">>50</td><td align="left" valign="top" charoff="50">Energy</td><td align="left" valign="top" charoff="50">SST<sub>sdev</sub></td><td align="center" valign="top" charoff="50">°C</td><td align="char" valign="top" char="±" charoff="50">1.2±0.0</td><td align="char" valign="top" char="." charoff="50">−3.71</td><td align="char" valign="top" char="." charoff="50">0.33</td></tr><tr><td align="left" valign="top" charoff="50">>50</td><td align="left" valign="top" charoff="50">Human pressure</td><td align="left" valign="top" charoff="50">Human impact</td><td align="center" valign="top" charoff="50">—</td><td align="char" valign="top" char="±" charoff="50">9.85±0.1</td><td align="char" valign="top" char="." charoff="50">−2.53</td><td align="char" valign="top" char="." charoff="50">−0.32</td></tr></tbody></table><table-wrap-foot><fn id="t1-fn1"><p><italic>Dist2Land</italic>: distance to nearest land mass; <italic>ReefArea</italic><sub><italic>50</italic></sub>: reef area; <italic>SST</italic><sub><italic>sdev</italic></sub>: seasonal deviation (that is, seasonality) in sea surface temperature. Rate of change represents the slope of a linear relationship with all <italic>x</italic> axes rescaled to the [0; 1] interval to facilitate comparisons.</p></fn></table-wrap-foot></table-wrap></floats-group></pmc></record>Pour manipuler ce document sous Unix (Dilib)
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