Interannual cycles of Hantaan virus outbreaks at the human–animal interface in Central China are controlled by temperature and rainfall
Identifieur interne : 001C14 ( Pmc/Corpus ); précédent : 001C13; suivant : 001C15Interannual cycles of Hantaan virus outbreaks at the human–animal interface in Central China are controlled by temperature and rainfall
Auteurs : Huaiyu Tian ; Pengbo Yu ; Bernard Cazelles ; Lei Xu ; Hua Tan ; Jing Yang ; Shanqian Huang ; Bo Xu ; Jun Cai ; Chaofeng Ma ; Jing Wei ; Shen Li ; Jianhui Qu ; Marko Laine ; Jingjun Wang ; Shilu Tong ; Nils Chr. Stenseth ; Bing XuSource :
- Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America [ 0027-8424 ] ; 2017.
Abstract
Interannual cycles of many zoonotic diseases are considered to be driven by climate variability. However, the role of climate forcing in the modulation of zoonotic dynamics has been highly controversial, chiefly due to the difficulty in quantifying the links between climate forcing, animal population dynamics, and disease dynamics. Here, we address this issue by using a unique field surveillance dataset from Central China, covering one-half century. Our results shed light on the drivers behind interannual variability and the dynamic patterns of disease ecology, and the links between interannual climate variability and the human–animal interface, adding up to 3-mo lead time over outbreak warnings.
Url:
DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1701777114
PubMed: 28696305
PubMed Central: 5544290
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<record><TEI><teiHeader><fileDesc><titleStmt><title xml:lang="en">Interannual cycles of Hantaan virus outbreaks at the human–animal interface in Central China are controlled by temperature and rainfall</title><author><name sortKey="Tian, Huaiyu" sort="Tian, Huaiyu" uniqKey="Tian H" first="Huaiyu" last="Tian">Huaiyu Tian</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="aff1">State Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing Science, College of Global Change and Earth System Science,<institution>Beijing Normal University</institution>, Beijing 100875,<country>China</country>;</nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Yu, Pengbo" sort="Yu, Pengbo" uniqKey="Yu P" first="Pengbo" last="Yu">Pengbo Yu</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="aff2"><institution>Shaanxi Provincial Centre for Disease Control and Prevention</institution>, Xi’an 710054, Shaanxi,<country>China</country>;</nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Cazelles, Bernard" sort="Cazelles, Bernard" uniqKey="Cazelles B" first="Bernard" last="Cazelles">Bernard Cazelles</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="aff3">Institut de Biologie de l'École Normale Supérieure UMR 8197, Eco-Evolutionary Mathematics, École Normale Supérieure, 75230 Paris Cedex 05, France;</nlm:aff></affiliation><affiliation><nlm:aff id="aff4">Unité Mixte Internationnale 209, Mathematical and Computational Modeling of Complex Systems, Institut de Recherche pour le Développement et Université Pierre et Marie Curie, 93142 Bondy, France;</nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Xu, Lei" sort="Xu, Lei" uniqKey="Xu L" first="Lei" last="Xu">Lei Xu</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="aff5">State Key Laboratory of Infectious Disease Prevention and Control, National Institute for Communicable Disease Control and Prevention,<institution>Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention</institution>, Beijing 102206,<country>China</country>;</nlm:aff></affiliation><affiliation><nlm:aff id="aff6">Centre for Ecological and Evolutionary Synthesis, Department of Biosciences,<institution>University of Oslo</institution>, N-0316 Oslo,<country>Norway</country>;</nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Tan, Hua" sort="Tan, Hua" uniqKey="Tan H" first="Hua" last="Tan">Hua Tan</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="aff7">Center for Bioinformatics and Systems Biology, Department of Radiology,<institution>Wake Forest School of Medicine</institution>, Winston-Salem,<addr-line>NC</addr-line> 27157;</nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Yang, Jing" sort="Yang, Jing" uniqKey="Yang J" first="Jing" last="Yang">Jing Yang</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="aff1">State Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing Science, College of Global Change and Earth System Science,<institution>Beijing Normal University</institution>, Beijing 100875,<country>China</country>;</nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Huang, Shanqian" sort="Huang, Shanqian" uniqKey="Huang S" first="Shanqian" last="Huang">Shanqian Huang</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="aff1">State Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing Science, College of Global Change and Earth System Science,<institution>Beijing Normal University</institution>, Beijing 100875,<country>China</country>;</nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Xu, Bo" sort="Xu, Bo" uniqKey="Xu B" first="Bo" last="Xu">Bo Xu</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="aff8">Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System Modelling, Department of Earth System Science,<institution>Tsinghua University</institution>, Beijing 100084,<country>China</country>;</nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Cai, Jun" sort="Cai, Jun" uniqKey="Cai J" first="Jun" last="Cai">Jun Cai</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="aff8">Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System Modelling, Department of Earth System Science,<institution>Tsinghua University</institution>, Beijing 100084,<country>China</country>;</nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Ma, Chaofeng" sort="Ma, Chaofeng" uniqKey="Ma C" first="Chaofeng" last="Ma">Chaofeng Ma</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="aff9"><institution>Xi’an Centre for Disease Control and Prevention</institution>, Xi’an 710054, Shaanxi,<country>China</country>;</nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Wei, Jing" sort="Wei, Jing" uniqKey="Wei J" first="Jing" last="Wei">Jing Wei</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="aff2"><institution>Shaanxi Provincial Centre for Disease Control and Prevention</institution>, Xi’an 710054, Shaanxi,<country>China</country>;</nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Li, Shen" sort="Li, Shen" uniqKey="Li S" first="Shen" last="Li">Shen Li</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="aff2"><institution>Shaanxi Provincial Centre for Disease Control and Prevention</institution>, Xi’an 710054, Shaanxi,<country>China</country>;</nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Qu, Jianhui" sort="Qu, Jianhui" uniqKey="Qu J" first="Jianhui" last="Qu">Jianhui Qu</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="aff10"><institution>Hu County Centre for Disease Control and Prevention</institution>, Xi’an, Shaanxi 710302,<country>China</country>;</nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Laine, Marko" sort="Laine, Marko" uniqKey="Laine M" first="Marko" last="Laine">Marko Laine</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="aff11"><institution>Finnish Meteorological Institute</institution>, Helsinki FI-00101,<country>Finland</country>;</nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Wang, Jingjun" sort="Wang, Jingjun" uniqKey="Wang J" first="Jingjun" last="Wang">Jingjun Wang</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="aff2"><institution>Shaanxi Provincial Centre for Disease Control and Prevention</institution>, Xi’an 710054, Shaanxi,<country>China</country>;</nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Tong, Shilu" sort="Tong, Shilu" uniqKey="Tong S" first="Shilu" last="Tong">Shilu Tong</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="aff12">Shanghai Children’s Medical Center,<institution>Shanghai Jiao Tong University</institution>, Shanghai 200127,<country>China</country>;</nlm:aff></affiliation><affiliation><nlm:aff id="aff13">School of Public Health and Institute of Environment and Population Health,<institution>Anhui Medical University</institution>, Hefei 230032,<country>China</country>;</nlm:aff></affiliation><affiliation><nlm:aff id="aff14">School of Public Health and Social Work,<institution>Queensland University of Technology</institution>, Kelvin Grove, QLD 4059,<country>Australia</country></nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Stenseth, Nils Chr" sort="Stenseth, Nils Chr" uniqKey="Stenseth N" first="Nils Chr." last="Stenseth">Nils Chr. Stenseth</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="aff6">Centre for Ecological and Evolutionary Synthesis, Department of Biosciences,<institution>University of Oslo</institution>, N-0316 Oslo,<country>Norway</country>;</nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Xu, Bing" sort="Xu, Bing" uniqKey="Xu B" first="Bing" last="Xu">Bing Xu</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="aff1">State Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing Science, College of Global Change and Earth System Science,<institution>Beijing Normal University</institution>, Beijing 100875,<country>China</country>;</nlm:aff></affiliation><affiliation><nlm:aff id="aff8">Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System Modelling, Department of Earth System Science,<institution>Tsinghua University</institution>, Beijing 100084,<country>China</country>;</nlm:aff></affiliation></author></titleStmt><publicationStmt><idno type="wicri:source">PMC</idno><idno type="pmid">28696305</idno><idno type="pmc">5544290</idno><idno type="url">http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5544290</idno><idno type="RBID">PMC:5544290</idno><idno type="doi">10.1073/pnas.1701777114</idno><date when="2017">2017</date><idno type="wicri:Area/Pmc/Corpus">001C14</idno><idno type="wicri:explorRef" wicri:stream="Pmc" wicri:step="Corpus" wicri:corpus="PMC">001C14</idno></publicationStmt><sourceDesc><biblStruct><analytic><title xml:lang="en" level="a" type="main">Interannual cycles of Hantaan virus outbreaks at the human–animal interface in Central China are controlled by temperature and rainfall</title><author><name sortKey="Tian, Huaiyu" sort="Tian, Huaiyu" uniqKey="Tian H" first="Huaiyu" last="Tian">Huaiyu Tian</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="aff1">State Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing Science, College of Global Change and Earth System Science,<institution>Beijing Normal University</institution>, Beijing 100875,<country>China</country>;</nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Yu, Pengbo" sort="Yu, Pengbo" uniqKey="Yu P" first="Pengbo" last="Yu">Pengbo Yu</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="aff2"><institution>Shaanxi Provincial Centre for Disease Control and Prevention</institution>, Xi’an 710054, Shaanxi,<country>China</country>;</nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Cazelles, Bernard" sort="Cazelles, Bernard" uniqKey="Cazelles B" first="Bernard" last="Cazelles">Bernard Cazelles</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="aff3">Institut de Biologie de l'École Normale Supérieure UMR 8197, Eco-Evolutionary Mathematics, École Normale Supérieure, 75230 Paris Cedex 05, France;</nlm:aff></affiliation><affiliation><nlm:aff id="aff4">Unité Mixte Internationnale 209, Mathematical and Computational Modeling of Complex Systems, Institut de Recherche pour le Développement et Université Pierre et Marie Curie, 93142 Bondy, France;</nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Xu, Lei" sort="Xu, Lei" uniqKey="Xu L" first="Lei" last="Xu">Lei Xu</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="aff5">State Key Laboratory of Infectious Disease Prevention and Control, National Institute for Communicable Disease Control and Prevention,<institution>Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention</institution>, Beijing 102206,<country>China</country>;</nlm:aff></affiliation><affiliation><nlm:aff id="aff6">Centre for Ecological and Evolutionary Synthesis, Department of Biosciences,<institution>University of Oslo</institution>, N-0316 Oslo,<country>Norway</country>;</nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Tan, Hua" sort="Tan, Hua" uniqKey="Tan H" first="Hua" last="Tan">Hua Tan</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="aff7">Center for Bioinformatics and Systems Biology, Department of Radiology,<institution>Wake Forest School of Medicine</institution>, Winston-Salem,<addr-line>NC</addr-line> 27157;</nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Yang, Jing" sort="Yang, Jing" uniqKey="Yang J" first="Jing" last="Yang">Jing Yang</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="aff1">State Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing Science, College of Global Change and Earth System Science,<institution>Beijing Normal University</institution>, Beijing 100875,<country>China</country>;</nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Huang, Shanqian" sort="Huang, Shanqian" uniqKey="Huang S" first="Shanqian" last="Huang">Shanqian Huang</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="aff1">State Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing Science, College of Global Change and Earth System Science,<institution>Beijing Normal University</institution>, Beijing 100875,<country>China</country>;</nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Xu, Bo" sort="Xu, Bo" uniqKey="Xu B" first="Bo" last="Xu">Bo Xu</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="aff8">Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System Modelling, Department of Earth System Science,<institution>Tsinghua University</institution>, Beijing 100084,<country>China</country>;</nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Cai, Jun" sort="Cai, Jun" uniqKey="Cai J" first="Jun" last="Cai">Jun Cai</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="aff8">Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System Modelling, Department of Earth System Science,<institution>Tsinghua University</institution>, Beijing 100084,<country>China</country>;</nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Ma, Chaofeng" sort="Ma, Chaofeng" uniqKey="Ma C" first="Chaofeng" last="Ma">Chaofeng Ma</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="aff9"><institution>Xi’an Centre for Disease Control and Prevention</institution>, Xi’an 710054, Shaanxi,<country>China</country>;</nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Wei, Jing" sort="Wei, Jing" uniqKey="Wei J" first="Jing" last="Wei">Jing Wei</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="aff2"><institution>Shaanxi Provincial Centre for Disease Control and Prevention</institution>, Xi’an 710054, Shaanxi,<country>China</country>;</nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Li, Shen" sort="Li, Shen" uniqKey="Li S" first="Shen" last="Li">Shen Li</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="aff2"><institution>Shaanxi Provincial Centre for Disease Control and Prevention</institution>, Xi’an 710054, Shaanxi,<country>China</country>;</nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Qu, Jianhui" sort="Qu, Jianhui" uniqKey="Qu J" first="Jianhui" last="Qu">Jianhui Qu</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="aff10"><institution>Hu County Centre for Disease Control and Prevention</institution>, Xi’an, Shaanxi 710302,<country>China</country>;</nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Laine, Marko" sort="Laine, Marko" uniqKey="Laine M" first="Marko" last="Laine">Marko Laine</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="aff11"><institution>Finnish Meteorological Institute</institution>, Helsinki FI-00101,<country>Finland</country>;</nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Wang, Jingjun" sort="Wang, Jingjun" uniqKey="Wang J" first="Jingjun" last="Wang">Jingjun Wang</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="aff2"><institution>Shaanxi Provincial Centre for Disease Control and Prevention</institution>, Xi’an 710054, Shaanxi,<country>China</country>;</nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Tong, Shilu" sort="Tong, Shilu" uniqKey="Tong S" first="Shilu" last="Tong">Shilu Tong</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="aff12">Shanghai Children’s Medical Center,<institution>Shanghai Jiao Tong University</institution>, Shanghai 200127,<country>China</country>;</nlm:aff></affiliation><affiliation><nlm:aff id="aff13">School of Public Health and Institute of Environment and Population Health,<institution>Anhui Medical University</institution>, Hefei 230032,<country>China</country>;</nlm:aff></affiliation><affiliation><nlm:aff id="aff14">School of Public Health and Social Work,<institution>Queensland University of Technology</institution>, Kelvin Grove, QLD 4059,<country>Australia</country></nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Stenseth, Nils Chr" sort="Stenseth, Nils Chr" uniqKey="Stenseth N" first="Nils Chr." last="Stenseth">Nils Chr. Stenseth</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="aff6">Centre for Ecological and Evolutionary Synthesis, Department of Biosciences,<institution>University of Oslo</institution>, N-0316 Oslo,<country>Norway</country>;</nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Xu, Bing" sort="Xu, Bing" uniqKey="Xu B" first="Bing" last="Xu">Bing Xu</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="aff1">State Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing Science, College of Global Change and Earth System Science,<institution>Beijing Normal University</institution>, Beijing 100875,<country>China</country>;</nlm:aff></affiliation><affiliation><nlm:aff id="aff8">Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System Modelling, Department of Earth System Science,<institution>Tsinghua University</institution>, Beijing 100084,<country>China</country>;</nlm:aff></affiliation></author></analytic><series><title level="j">Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America</title><idno type="ISSN">0027-8424</idno><idno type="eISSN">1091-6490</idno><imprint><date when="2017">2017</date></imprint></series></biblStruct></sourceDesc></fileDesc><profileDesc><textClass></textClass></profileDesc></teiHeader><front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en"><title>Significance</title><p>Interannual cycles of many zoonotic diseases are considered to be driven by climate variability. However, the role of climate forcing in the modulation of zoonotic dynamics has been highly controversial, chiefly due to the difficulty in quantifying the links between climate forcing, animal population dynamics, and disease dynamics. Here, we address this issue by using a unique field surveillance dataset from Central China, covering one-half century. Our results shed light on the drivers behind interannual variability and the dynamic patterns of disease ecology, and the links between interannual climate variability and the human–animal interface, adding up to 3-mo lead time over outbreak warnings.</p></div></front></TEI><pmc article-type="research-article"><pmc-comment>The publisher of this article does not allow downloading of the full text in XML form.</pmc-comment>
<front><journal-meta><journal-id journal-id-type="nlm-ta">Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A</journal-id><journal-id journal-id-type="iso-abbrev">Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A</journal-id><journal-id journal-id-type="hwp">pnas</journal-id><journal-id journal-id-type="pmc">pnas</journal-id><journal-id journal-id-type="publisher-id">PNAS</journal-id><journal-title-group><journal-title>Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America</journal-title></journal-title-group><issn pub-type="ppub">0027-8424</issn><issn pub-type="epub">1091-6490</issn><publisher><publisher-name>National Academy of Sciences</publisher-name></publisher></journal-meta><article-meta><article-id pub-id-type="pmid">28696305</article-id><article-id pub-id-type="pmc">5544290</article-id><article-id pub-id-type="publisher-id">201701777</article-id><article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.1073/pnas.1701777114</article-id><article-categories><subj-group subj-group-type="heading"><subject>Biological Sciences</subject><subj-group><subject>Environmental Sciences</subject></subj-group></subj-group></article-categories><title-group><article-title>Interannual cycles of Hantaan virus outbreaks at the human–animal interface in Central China are controlled by temperature and rainfall</article-title><alt-title alt-title-type="short">Interannual cycles of Hantaan virus outbreaks</alt-title></title-group><contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Tian</surname><given-names>Huaiyu</given-names></name><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1"><sup>a</sup></xref><xref ref-type="author-notes" rid="fn1"><sup>1</sup></xref></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Yu</surname><given-names>Pengbo</given-names></name><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2"><sup>b</sup></xref><xref ref-type="author-notes" rid="fn1"><sup>1</sup></xref></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Cazelles</surname><given-names>Bernard</given-names></name><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff3"><sup>c</sup></xref><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff4"><sup>d</sup></xref></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Xu</surname><given-names>Lei</given-names></name><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff5"><sup>e</sup></xref><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff6"><sup>f</sup></xref></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Tan</surname><given-names>Hua</given-names></name><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff7"><sup>g</sup></xref></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Yang</surname><given-names>Jing</given-names></name><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1"><sup>a</sup></xref></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Huang</surname><given-names>Shanqian</given-names></name><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1"><sup>a</sup></xref></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author"><contrib-id contrib-id-type="orcid" authenticated="false">http://orcid.org/0000-0002-1920-5829</contrib-id><name><surname>Xu</surname><given-names>Bo</given-names></name><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff8"><sup>h</sup></xref></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Cai</surname><given-names>Jun</given-names></name><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff8"><sup>h</sup></xref></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Ma</surname><given-names>Chaofeng</given-names></name><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff9"><sup>i</sup></xref></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Wei</surname><given-names>Jing</given-names></name><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2"><sup>b</sup></xref></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Li</surname><given-names>Shen</given-names></name><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2"><sup>b</sup></xref></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Qu</surname><given-names>Jianhui</given-names></name><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff10"><sup>j</sup></xref></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author"><contrib-id contrib-id-type="orcid" authenticated="false">http://orcid.org/0000-0002-5914-6747</contrib-id><name><surname>Laine</surname><given-names>Marko</given-names></name><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff11"><sup>k</sup></xref></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Wang</surname><given-names>Jingjun</given-names></name><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2"><sup>b</sup></xref><xref ref-type="corresp" rid="cor1"><sup>2</sup></xref></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Tong</surname><given-names>Shilu</given-names></name><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff12"><sup>l</sup></xref><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff13"><sup>m</sup></xref><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff14"><sup>n</sup></xref></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Stenseth</surname><given-names>Nils Chr.</given-names></name><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff6"><sup>f</sup></xref><xref ref-type="corresp" rid="cor1"><sup>2</sup></xref></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Xu</surname><given-names>Bing</given-names></name><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1"><sup>a</sup></xref><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff8"><sup>h</sup></xref><xref ref-type="corresp" rid="cor1"><sup>2</sup></xref></contrib><aff id="aff1"><sup>a</sup>State Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing Science, College of Global Change and Earth System Science,<institution>Beijing Normal University</institution>, Beijing 100875,<country>China</country>;</aff><aff id="aff2"><sup>b</sup><institution>Shaanxi Provincial Centre for Disease Control and Prevention</institution>, Xi’an 710054, Shaanxi,<country>China</country>;</aff><aff id="aff3"><sup>c</sup>Institut de Biologie de l'École Normale Supérieure UMR 8197, Eco-Evolutionary Mathematics, École Normale Supérieure, 75230 Paris Cedex 05, France;</aff><aff id="aff4"><sup>d</sup>Unité Mixte Internationnale 209, Mathematical and Computational Modeling of Complex Systems, Institut de Recherche pour le Développement et Université Pierre et Marie Curie, 93142 Bondy, France;</aff><aff id="aff5"><sup>e</sup>State Key Laboratory of Infectious Disease Prevention and Control, National Institute for Communicable Disease Control and Prevention,<institution>Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention</institution>, Beijing 102206,<country>China</country>;</aff><aff id="aff6"><sup>f</sup>Centre for Ecological and Evolutionary Synthesis, Department of Biosciences,<institution>University of Oslo</institution>, N-0316 Oslo,<country>Norway</country>;</aff><aff id="aff7"><sup>g</sup>Center for Bioinformatics and Systems Biology, Department of Radiology,<institution>Wake Forest School of Medicine</institution>, Winston-Salem,<addr-line>NC</addr-line> 27157;</aff><aff id="aff8"><sup>h</sup>Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System Modelling, Department of Earth System Science,<institution>Tsinghua University</institution>, Beijing 100084,<country>China</country>;</aff><aff id="aff9"><sup>i</sup><institution>Xi’an Centre for Disease Control and Prevention</institution>, Xi’an 710054, Shaanxi,<country>China</country>;</aff><aff id="aff10"><sup>j</sup><institution>Hu County Centre for Disease Control and Prevention</institution>, Xi’an, Shaanxi 710302,<country>China</country>;</aff><aff id="aff11"><sup>k</sup><institution>Finnish Meteorological Institute</institution>, Helsinki FI-00101,<country>Finland</country>;</aff><aff id="aff12"><sup>l</sup>Shanghai Children’s Medical Center,<institution>Shanghai Jiao Tong University</institution>, Shanghai 200127,<country>China</country>;</aff><aff id="aff13"><sup>m</sup>School of Public Health and Institute of Environment and Population Health,<institution>Anhui Medical University</institution>, Hefei 230032,<country>China</country>;</aff><aff id="aff14"><sup>n</sup>School of Public Health and Social Work,<institution>Queensland University of Technology</institution>, Kelvin Grove, QLD 4059,<country>Australia</country></aff></contrib-group><author-notes><corresp id="cor1"><sup>2</sup>To whom correspondence may be addressed. Email: <email>n.c.stenseth@ibv.uio.no</email>, <email>jingjunwang@china.com</email>, or <email>bingxu@tsinghua.edu.cn</email>.</corresp><fn fn-type="edited-by"><p>Edited by Burton H. Singer, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, and approved June 13, 2017 (received for review February 1, 2017)</p></fn><fn fn-type="con"><p>Author contributions: H. Tian, J. Wang, N.C.S., and Bing Xu designed research; H. Tian, P.Y., C.M., J. Wei, S.L., J.Q., J. Wang, N.C.S., and Bing Xu performed research; P.Y., B.C., and H. Tan contributed new reagents/analytic tools; H. Tian, L.X., J.Y., S.H., Bo Xu, J.C., and M.L. analyzed data; and H. Tian, B.C., S.T., and N.C.S. wrote the paper.</p></fn><fn fn-type="equal" id="fn1"><p><sup>1</sup>H. Tian and P.Y. contributed equally to this work.</p></fn></author-notes><pub-date pub-type="ppub"><day>25</day><month>7</month><year>2017</year></pub-date><pub-date pub-type="epub"><day>10</day><month>7</month><year>2017</year></pub-date><pub-date pub-type="pmc-release"><day>10</day><month>7</month><year>2017</year></pub-date><pmc-comment> PMC Release delay is 0 months and 0 days and was based on the
<volume>114</volume><issue>30</issue><fpage>8041</fpage><lpage>8046</lpage><permissions><license license-type="open-access"><license-p>Freely available online through the PNAS open access option.</license-p></license></permissions><self-uri xlink:title="pdf" xlink:href="pnas.201701777.pdf"></self-uri><abstract abstract-type="executive-summary"><title>Significance</title><p>Interannual cycles of many zoonotic diseases are considered to be driven by climate variability. However, the role of climate forcing in the modulation of zoonotic dynamics has been highly controversial, chiefly due to the difficulty in quantifying the links between climate forcing, animal population dynamics, and disease dynamics. Here, we address this issue by using a unique field surveillance dataset from Central China, covering one-half century. Our results shed light on the drivers behind interannual variability and the dynamic patterns of disease ecology, and the links between interannual climate variability and the human–animal interface, adding up to 3-mo lead time over outbreak warnings.</p></abstract><abstract><p>Hantavirus, a rodent-borne zoonotic pathogen, has a global distribution with 200,000 human infections diagnosed annually. In recent decades, repeated outbreaks of hantavirus infections have been reported in Eurasia and America. These outbreaks have led to public concern and an interest in understanding the underlying biological mechanisms. Here, we propose a climate–animal–Hantaan virus (HTNV) infection model to address this issue, using a unique dataset spanning a 54-y period (1960–2013). This dataset comes from Central China, a focal point for natural HTNV infection, and includes both field surveillance and an epidemiological record. We reveal that the 8-y cycle of HTNV outbreaks is driven by the confluence of the cyclic dynamics of striped field mouse (<italic>Apodemus agrarius</italic>) populations and climate variability, at both seasonal and interannual cycles. Two climatic variables play key roles in the ecology of the HTNV system: temperature and rainfall. These variables account for the dynamics in the host reservoir system and markedly affect both the rate of transmission and the potential risk of outbreaks. Our results suggest that outbreaks of HTNV infection occur only when climatic conditions are favorable for both rodent population growth and virus transmission. These findings improve our understanding of how climate drives the periodic reemergence of zoonotic disease outbreaks over long timescales.</p></abstract><kwd-group><kwd>Hantaan virus</kwd><kwd>spillover to humans</kwd><kwd>wildlife reservoir</kwd><kwd>time-series data</kwd><kwd>climate change</kwd></kwd-group><funding-group><award-group id="gs1"><funding-source id="sp1">National Natural Science Foundation of China (NSFC)<named-content content-type="funder-id">501100001809</named-content></funding-source><award-id rid="sp1">81673234</award-id></award-group><award-group id="gs2"><funding-source id="sp2">Ministry of Science and Technology of the People's Republic of China (MOST)<named-content content-type="funder-id">501100002855</named-content></funding-source><award-id rid="sp2">2016YFA0600104</award-id></award-group><award-group id="gs3"><funding-source id="sp3">National Health and Family Planning Commission of the People's Republic of China (Ministry of Health of China)<named-content content-type="funder-id">501100004572</named-content></funding-source><award-id rid="sp3">201502020</award-id></award-group><award-group id="gs4"><funding-source id="sp4">Shaanxi Health and Family Planning Commission</funding-source><award-id rid="sp4">0617-15240415</award-id></award-group><award-group id="gs5"><funding-source id="sp5">Shaanxi Provincial Science & Technology Department</funding-source><award-id rid="sp5">2014A7</award-id></award-group><award-group id="gs6"><funding-source id="sp6">Shaanxi Provincial Science & Technology Department</funding-source><award-id rid="sp6">2013K12-04-02</award-id></award-group></funding-group><counts><page-count count="6"></page-count></counts></article-meta></front></pmc></record>Pour manipuler ce document sous Unix (Dilib)
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