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<record><TEI><teiHeader><fileDesc><titleStmt><title xml:lang="en">Climate change effects on agriculture: Economic responses to biophysical shocks</title><author><name sortKey="Nelson, Gerald C" sort="Nelson, Gerald C" uniqKey="Nelson G" first="Gerald C." last="Nelson">Gerald C. Nelson</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="aff1">Environment and Production Technology Division,<institution>International Food Policy Research Institute</institution>, Washington,<addr-line>DC</addr-line> 20006-1002;</nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Valin, Hugo" sort="Valin, Hugo" uniqKey="Valin H" first="Hugo" last="Valin">Hugo Valin</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="aff2">International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis,<institution>Ecosystems Services and Management Program</institution>, A-2361 Laxenburg,<country>Austria</country>;</nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Sands, Ronald D" sort="Sands, Ronald D" uniqKey="Sands R" first="Ronald D." last="Sands">Ronald D. Sands</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="aff3">Resource and Rural Economics Division, Economic Research Service,<institution>US Department of Agriculture</institution>, Washington,<addr-line>DC</addr-line> 20250;</nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Havlik, Petr" sort="Havlik, Petr" uniqKey="Havlik P" first="Petr" last="Havlík">Petr Havlík</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="aff2">International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis,<institution>Ecosystems Services and Management Program</institution>, A-2361 Laxenburg,<country>Austria</country>;</nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Ahammad, Helal" sort="Ahammad, Helal" uniqKey="Ahammad H" first="Helal" last="Ahammad">Helal Ahammad</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="aff4"><institution>Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences</institution>, Canberra, ACT 2601,<country>Australia</country>;</nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Deryng, Delphine" sort="Deryng, Delphine" uniqKey="Deryng D" first="Delphine" last="Deryng">Delphine Deryng</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="aff5">Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research and School of Environmental Sciences,<institution>University of East Anglia</institution>, Norwich NR4 7TJ,<country>United Kingdom</country>;</nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Elliott, Joshua" sort="Elliott, Joshua" uniqKey="Elliott J" first="Joshua" last="Elliott">Joshua Elliott</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="aff6"><institution>University of Chicago</institution> Computation Institute, Chicago,<addr-line>IL</addr-line> 60637;</nlm:aff></affiliation><affiliation><nlm:aff id="aff7"><institution>Columbia University</institution> Center for Climate Systems Research, New York,<addr-line>NY</addr-line> 10025;</nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Fujimori, Shinichiro" sort="Fujimori, Shinichiro" uniqKey="Fujimori S" first="Shinichiro" last="Fujimori">Shinichiro Fujimori</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="aff8">National Institute for Environmental Studies,<institution>Center for Social and Environmental Systems Research</institution>, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 305-8506,<country>Japan</country>;</nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Hasegawa, Tomoko" sort="Hasegawa, Tomoko" uniqKey="Hasegawa T" first="Tomoko" last="Hasegawa">Tomoko Hasegawa</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="aff8">National Institute for Environmental Studies,<institution>Center for Social and Environmental Systems Research</institution>, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 305-8506,<country>Japan</country>;</nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Heyhoe, Edwina" sort="Heyhoe, Edwina" uniqKey="Heyhoe E" first="Edwina" last="Heyhoe">Edwina Heyhoe</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="aff4"><institution>Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences</institution>, Canberra, ACT 2601,<country>Australia</country>;</nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Kyle, Page" sort="Kyle, Page" uniqKey="Kyle P" first="Page" last="Kyle">Page Kyle</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="aff9">Joint Global Change Research Institute,<institution>Pacific Northwest National Laboratory</institution>, College Park,<addr-line>MD</addr-line> 20740;</nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Von Lampe, Martin" sort="Von Lampe, Martin" uniqKey="Von Lampe M" first="Martin" last="Von Lampe">Martin Von Lampe</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="aff10">Trade and Agriculture Directorate,<institution>Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development</institution>, 75775 Paris Cedex 16,<country>France</country>;</nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Lotze Campen, Hermann" sort="Lotze Campen, Hermann" uniqKey="Lotze Campen H" first="Hermann" last="Lotze-Campen">Hermann Lotze-Campen</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="aff11"><institution>Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research</institution>, 14473 Potsdam,<country>Germany</country>;</nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Mason D Roz, Daniel" sort="Mason D Roz, Daniel" uniqKey="Mason D Roz D" first="Daniel" last="Mason D Roz">Daniel Mason D Roz</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="aff1">Environment and Production Technology Division,<institution>International Food Policy Research Institute</institution>, Washington,<addr-line>DC</addr-line> 20006-1002;</nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Van Meijl, Hans" sort="Van Meijl, Hans" uniqKey="Van Meijl H" first="Hans" last="Van Meijl">Hans Van Meijl</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="aff12">LEI (Agricultural Economics Research Institute), Wageningen University and Research Centre, 2585 DB, The Hague, The Netherlands;</nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Van Der Mensbrugghe, Dominique" sort="Van Der Mensbrugghe, Dominique" uniqKey="Van Der Mensbrugghe D" first="Dominique" last="Van Der Mensbrugghe">Dominique Van Der Mensbrugghe</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="aff13">Agricultural Development Economics Division,<institution>Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations</institution>, I-00153 Rome,<country>Italy</country>;</nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Muller, Christoph" sort="Muller, Christoph" uniqKey="Muller C" first="Christoph" last="Müller">Christoph Müller</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="aff11"><institution>Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research</institution>, 14473 Potsdam,<country>Germany</country>;</nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Popp, Alexander" sort="Popp, Alexander" uniqKey="Popp A" first="Alexander" last="Popp">Alexander Popp</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="aff11"><institution>Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research</institution>, 14473 Potsdam,<country>Germany</country>;</nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Robertson, Richard" sort="Robertson, Richard" uniqKey="Robertson R" first="Richard" last="Robertson">Richard Robertson</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="aff1">Environment and Production Technology Division,<institution>International Food Policy Research Institute</institution>, Washington,<addr-line>DC</addr-line> 20006-1002;</nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Robinson, Sherman" sort="Robinson, Sherman" uniqKey="Robinson S" first="Sherman" last="Robinson">Sherman Robinson</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="aff1">Environment and Production Technology Division,<institution>International Food Policy Research Institute</institution>, Washington,<addr-line>DC</addr-line> 20006-1002;</nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Schmid, Erwin" sort="Schmid, Erwin" uniqKey="Schmid E" first="Erwin" last="Schmid">Erwin Schmid</name><affiliation><nlm:aff wicri:cut="; and" id="aff14"><institution>University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences, Vienna</institution>, 1180 Vienna,<country>Austria</country></nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Schmitz, Christoph" sort="Schmitz, Christoph" uniqKey="Schmitz C" first="Christoph" last="Schmitz">Christoph Schmitz</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="aff11"><institution>Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research</institution>, 14473 Potsdam,<country>Germany</country>;</nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Tabeau, Andrzej" sort="Tabeau, Andrzej" uniqKey="Tabeau A" first="Andrzej" last="Tabeau">Andrzej Tabeau</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="aff12">LEI (Agricultural Economics Research Institute), Wageningen University and Research Centre, 2585 DB, The Hague, The Netherlands;</nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Willenbockel, Dirk" sort="Willenbockel, Dirk" uniqKey="Willenbockel D" first="Dirk" last="Willenbockel">Dirk Willenbockel</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="aff15"><institution>Institute of Development Studies</institution>, University of Sussex, Brighton BN1 9RE,<country>United Kingdom</country></nlm:aff></affiliation></author></titleStmt><publicationStmt><idno type="wicri:source">PMC</idno><idno type="pmid">24344285</idno><idno type="pmc">3948295</idno><idno type="url">http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3948295</idno><idno type="RBID">PMC:3948295</idno><idno type="doi">10.1073/pnas.1222465110</idno><date when="2013">2013</date><idno type="wicri:Area/Pmc/Corpus">001B90</idno><idno type="wicri:explorRef" wicri:stream="Pmc" wicri:step="Corpus" wicri:corpus="PMC">001B90</idno></publicationStmt><sourceDesc><biblStruct><analytic><title xml:lang="en" level="a" type="main">Climate change effects on agriculture: Economic responses to biophysical shocks</title><author><name sortKey="Nelson, Gerald C" sort="Nelson, Gerald C" uniqKey="Nelson G" first="Gerald C." last="Nelson">Gerald C. Nelson</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="aff1">Environment and Production Technology Division,<institution>International Food Policy Research Institute</institution>, Washington,<addr-line>DC</addr-line> 20006-1002;</nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Valin, Hugo" sort="Valin, Hugo" uniqKey="Valin H" first="Hugo" last="Valin">Hugo Valin</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="aff2">International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis,<institution>Ecosystems Services and Management Program</institution>, A-2361 Laxenburg,<country>Austria</country>;</nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Sands, Ronald D" sort="Sands, Ronald D" uniqKey="Sands R" first="Ronald D." last="Sands">Ronald D. Sands</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="aff3">Resource and Rural Economics Division, Economic Research Service,<institution>US Department of Agriculture</institution>, Washington,<addr-line>DC</addr-line> 20250;</nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Havlik, Petr" sort="Havlik, Petr" uniqKey="Havlik P" first="Petr" last="Havlík">Petr Havlík</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="aff2">International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis,<institution>Ecosystems Services and Management Program</institution>, A-2361 Laxenburg,<country>Austria</country>;</nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Ahammad, Helal" sort="Ahammad, Helal" uniqKey="Ahammad H" first="Helal" last="Ahammad">Helal Ahammad</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="aff4"><institution>Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences</institution>, Canberra, ACT 2601,<country>Australia</country>;</nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Deryng, Delphine" sort="Deryng, Delphine" uniqKey="Deryng D" first="Delphine" last="Deryng">Delphine Deryng</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="aff5">Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research and School of Environmental Sciences,<institution>University of East Anglia</institution>, Norwich NR4 7TJ,<country>United Kingdom</country>;</nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Elliott, Joshua" sort="Elliott, Joshua" uniqKey="Elliott J" first="Joshua" last="Elliott">Joshua Elliott</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="aff6"><institution>University of Chicago</institution> Computation Institute, Chicago,<addr-line>IL</addr-line> 60637;</nlm:aff></affiliation><affiliation><nlm:aff id="aff7"><institution>Columbia University</institution> Center for Climate Systems Research, New York,<addr-line>NY</addr-line> 10025;</nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Fujimori, Shinichiro" sort="Fujimori, Shinichiro" uniqKey="Fujimori S" first="Shinichiro" last="Fujimori">Shinichiro Fujimori</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="aff8">National Institute for Environmental Studies,<institution>Center for Social and Environmental Systems Research</institution>, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 305-8506,<country>Japan</country>;</nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Hasegawa, Tomoko" sort="Hasegawa, Tomoko" uniqKey="Hasegawa T" first="Tomoko" last="Hasegawa">Tomoko Hasegawa</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="aff8">National Institute for Environmental Studies,<institution>Center for Social and Environmental Systems Research</institution>, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 305-8506,<country>Japan</country>;</nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Heyhoe, Edwina" sort="Heyhoe, Edwina" uniqKey="Heyhoe E" first="Edwina" last="Heyhoe">Edwina Heyhoe</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="aff4"><institution>Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences</institution>, Canberra, ACT 2601,<country>Australia</country>;</nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Kyle, Page" sort="Kyle, Page" uniqKey="Kyle P" first="Page" last="Kyle">Page Kyle</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="aff9">Joint Global Change Research Institute,<institution>Pacific Northwest National Laboratory</institution>, College Park,<addr-line>MD</addr-line> 20740;</nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Von Lampe, Martin" sort="Von Lampe, Martin" uniqKey="Von Lampe M" first="Martin" last="Von Lampe">Martin Von Lampe</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="aff10">Trade and Agriculture Directorate,<institution>Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development</institution>, 75775 Paris Cedex 16,<country>France</country>;</nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Lotze Campen, Hermann" sort="Lotze Campen, Hermann" uniqKey="Lotze Campen H" first="Hermann" last="Lotze-Campen">Hermann Lotze-Campen</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="aff11"><institution>Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research</institution>, 14473 Potsdam,<country>Germany</country>;</nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Mason D Roz, Daniel" sort="Mason D Roz, Daniel" uniqKey="Mason D Roz D" first="Daniel" last="Mason D Roz">Daniel Mason D Roz</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="aff1">Environment and Production Technology Division,<institution>International Food Policy Research Institute</institution>, Washington,<addr-line>DC</addr-line> 20006-1002;</nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Van Meijl, Hans" sort="Van Meijl, Hans" uniqKey="Van Meijl H" first="Hans" last="Van Meijl">Hans Van Meijl</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="aff12">LEI (Agricultural Economics Research Institute), Wageningen University and Research Centre, 2585 DB, The Hague, The Netherlands;</nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Van Der Mensbrugghe, Dominique" sort="Van Der Mensbrugghe, Dominique" uniqKey="Van Der Mensbrugghe D" first="Dominique" last="Van Der Mensbrugghe">Dominique Van Der Mensbrugghe</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="aff13">Agricultural Development Economics Division,<institution>Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations</institution>, I-00153 Rome,<country>Italy</country>;</nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Muller, Christoph" sort="Muller, Christoph" uniqKey="Muller C" first="Christoph" last="Müller">Christoph Müller</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="aff11"><institution>Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research</institution>, 14473 Potsdam,<country>Germany</country>;</nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Popp, Alexander" sort="Popp, Alexander" uniqKey="Popp A" first="Alexander" last="Popp">Alexander Popp</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="aff11"><institution>Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research</institution>, 14473 Potsdam,<country>Germany</country>;</nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Robertson, Richard" sort="Robertson, Richard" uniqKey="Robertson R" first="Richard" last="Robertson">Richard Robertson</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="aff1">Environment and Production Technology Division,<institution>International Food Policy Research Institute</institution>, Washington,<addr-line>DC</addr-line> 20006-1002;</nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Robinson, Sherman" sort="Robinson, Sherman" uniqKey="Robinson S" first="Sherman" last="Robinson">Sherman Robinson</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="aff1">Environment and Production Technology Division,<institution>International Food Policy Research Institute</institution>, Washington,<addr-line>DC</addr-line> 20006-1002;</nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Schmid, Erwin" sort="Schmid, Erwin" uniqKey="Schmid E" first="Erwin" last="Schmid">Erwin Schmid</name><affiliation><nlm:aff wicri:cut="; and" id="aff14"><institution>University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences, Vienna</institution>, 1180 Vienna,<country>Austria</country></nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Schmitz, Christoph" sort="Schmitz, Christoph" uniqKey="Schmitz C" first="Christoph" last="Schmitz">Christoph Schmitz</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="aff11"><institution>Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research</institution>, 14473 Potsdam,<country>Germany</country>;</nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Tabeau, Andrzej" sort="Tabeau, Andrzej" uniqKey="Tabeau A" first="Andrzej" last="Tabeau">Andrzej Tabeau</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="aff12">LEI (Agricultural Economics Research Institute), Wageningen University and Research Centre, 2585 DB, The Hague, The Netherlands;</nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Willenbockel, Dirk" sort="Willenbockel, Dirk" uniqKey="Willenbockel D" first="Dirk" last="Willenbockel">Dirk Willenbockel</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="aff15"><institution>Institute of Development Studies</institution>, University of Sussex, Brighton BN1 9RE,<country>United Kingdom</country></nlm:aff></affiliation></author></analytic><series><title level="j">Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America</title><idno type="ISSN">0027-8424</idno><idno type="eISSN">1091-6490</idno><imprint><date when="2013">2013</date></imprint></series></biblStruct></sourceDesc></fileDesc><profileDesc><textClass></textClass></profileDesc></teiHeader><front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en"><title>Significance</title><p>Plausible estimates of climate change impacts on agriculture require integrated use of climate, crop, and economic models. We investigate the contribution of economic models to uncertainty in this impact chain. In the nine economic models included, the direction of management intensity, area, consumption, and international trade responses to harmonized crop yield shocks from climate change are similar. However, the magnitudes differ significantly. The differences depend on model structure, in particular the specification of endogenous yield effects, land use change, and propensity to trade. These results highlight where future research on modeling climate change impacts on agriculture should focus.</p></div></front></TEI><pmc article-type="research-article"><pmc-comment>The publisher of this article does not allow downloading of the full text in XML form.</pmc-comment>
<front><journal-meta><journal-id journal-id-type="nlm-ta">Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A</journal-id><journal-id journal-id-type="iso-abbrev">Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A</journal-id><journal-id journal-id-type="hwp">pnas</journal-id><journal-id journal-id-type="pmc">pnas</journal-id><journal-id journal-id-type="publisher-id">PNAS</journal-id><journal-title-group><journal-title>Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America</journal-title></journal-title-group><issn pub-type="ppub">0027-8424</issn><issn pub-type="epub">1091-6490</issn><publisher><publisher-name>National Academy of Sciences</publisher-name></publisher></journal-meta><article-meta><article-id pub-id-type="pmid">24344285</article-id><article-id pub-id-type="pmc">3948295</article-id><article-id pub-id-type="publisher-id">201222465</article-id><article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.1073/pnas.1222465110</article-id><article-categories><subj-group subj-group-type="hwp-journal-coll"><subject>108</subject></subj-group><subj-group subj-group-type="heading"><subject>Global Climate Impacts: A Cross-Sector, Multi-Model Assessment Special Feature</subject></subj-group><subj-group subj-group-type="heading"><subject>Research Articles</subject></subj-group><subj-group subj-group-type="heading"><subject>Social Sciences</subject><subj-group><subject>Economic Sciences</subject></subj-group></subj-group><subj-group subj-group-type="heading"><subject>Biological Sciences</subject><subj-group><subject>Agricultural Sciences</subject></subj-group></subj-group></article-categories><title-group><article-title>Climate change effects on agriculture: Economic responses to biophysical shocks</article-title><alt-title alt-title-type="short">Economic response in agriculture to climate change</alt-title></title-group><contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Nelson</surname><given-names>Gerald C.</given-names></name><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1"><sup>a</sup></xref><xref ref-type="corresp" rid="cor1"><sup>1</sup></xref></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Valin</surname><given-names>Hugo</given-names></name><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2"><sup>b</sup></xref></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Sands</surname><given-names>Ronald D.</given-names></name><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff3"><sup>c</sup></xref></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Havlík</surname><given-names>Petr</given-names></name><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2"><sup>b</sup></xref></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Ahammad</surname><given-names>Helal</given-names></name><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff4"><sup>d</sup></xref></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Deryng</surname><given-names>Delphine</given-names></name><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff5"><sup>e</sup></xref></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Elliott</surname><given-names>Joshua</given-names></name><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff6"><sup>f</sup></xref><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff7"><sup>g</sup></xref></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Fujimori</surname><given-names>Shinichiro</given-names></name><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff8"><sup>h</sup></xref></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Hasegawa</surname><given-names>Tomoko</given-names></name><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff8"><sup>h</sup></xref></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Heyhoe</surname><given-names>Edwina</given-names></name><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff4"><sup>d</sup></xref></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Kyle</surname><given-names>Page</given-names></name><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff9"><sup>i</sup></xref></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Von Lampe</surname><given-names>Martin</given-names></name><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff10"><sup>j</sup></xref></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Lotze-Campen</surname><given-names>Hermann</given-names></name><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff11"><sup>k</sup></xref></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Mason d’Croz</surname><given-names>Daniel</given-names></name><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1"><sup>a</sup></xref></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>van Meijl</surname><given-names>Hans</given-names></name><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff12"><sup>l</sup></xref></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>van der Mensbrugghe</surname><given-names>Dominique</given-names></name><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff13"><sup>m</sup></xref></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Müller</surname><given-names>Christoph</given-names></name><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff11"><sup>k</sup></xref></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Popp</surname><given-names>Alexander</given-names></name><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff11"><sup>k</sup></xref></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Robertson</surname><given-names>Richard</given-names></name><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1"><sup>a</sup></xref></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Robinson</surname><given-names>Sherman</given-names></name><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1"><sup>a</sup></xref></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Schmid</surname><given-names>Erwin</given-names></name><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff14"><sup>n</sup></xref></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Schmitz</surname><given-names>Christoph</given-names></name><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff11"><sup>k</sup></xref></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Tabeau</surname><given-names>Andrzej</given-names></name><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff12"><sup>l</sup></xref></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Willenbockel</surname><given-names>Dirk</given-names></name><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff15"><sup>o</sup></xref></contrib><aff id="aff1"><sup>a</sup>Environment and Production Technology Division,<institution>International Food Policy Research Institute</institution>, Washington,<addr-line>DC</addr-line> 20006-1002;</aff><aff id="aff2"><sup>b</sup>International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis,<institution>Ecosystems Services and Management Program</institution>, A-2361 Laxenburg,<country>Austria</country>;</aff><aff id="aff3"><sup>c</sup>Resource and Rural Economics Division, Economic Research Service,<institution>US Department of Agriculture</institution>, Washington,<addr-line>DC</addr-line> 20250;</aff><aff id="aff4"><sup>d</sup><institution>Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences</institution>, Canberra, ACT 2601,<country>Australia</country>;</aff><aff id="aff5"><sup>e</sup>Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research and School of Environmental Sciences,<institution>University of East Anglia</institution>, Norwich NR4 7TJ,<country>United Kingdom</country>;</aff><aff id="aff6"><sup>f</sup><institution>University of Chicago</institution> Computation Institute, Chicago,<addr-line>IL</addr-line> 60637;</aff><aff id="aff7"><sup>g</sup><institution>Columbia University</institution> Center for Climate Systems Research, New York,<addr-line>NY</addr-line> 10025;</aff><aff id="aff8"><sup>h</sup>National Institute for Environmental Studies,<institution>Center for Social and Environmental Systems Research</institution>, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 305-8506,<country>Japan</country>;</aff><aff id="aff9"><sup>i</sup>Joint Global Change Research Institute,<institution>Pacific Northwest National Laboratory</institution>, College Park,<addr-line>MD</addr-line> 20740;</aff><aff id="aff10"><sup>j</sup>Trade and Agriculture Directorate,<institution>Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development</institution>, 75775 Paris Cedex 16,<country>France</country>;</aff><aff id="aff11"><sup>k</sup><institution>Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research</institution>, 14473 Potsdam,<country>Germany</country>;</aff><aff id="aff12"><sup>l</sup>LEI (Agricultural Economics Research Institute), Wageningen University and Research Centre, 2585 DB, The Hague, The Netherlands;</aff><aff id="aff13"><sup>m</sup>Agricultural Development Economics Division,<institution>Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations</institution>, I-00153 Rome,<country>Italy</country>;</aff><aff id="aff14"><sup>n</sup><institution>University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences, Vienna</institution>, 1180 Vienna,<country>Austria</country>; and</aff><aff id="aff15"><sup>o</sup><institution>Institute of Development Studies</institution>, University of Sussex, Brighton BN1 9RE,<country>United Kingdom</country></aff></contrib-group><author-notes><corresp id="cor1"><sup>1</sup>To whom correspondence should be addressed. E-mail: <email>nelson.gerald.c@gmail.com</email>.</corresp><fn fn-type="edited-by"><p>Edited by Hans Joachim Schellnhuber, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany, and approved August 31, 2013 (received for review January 31, 2013)</p></fn><fn fn-type="con"><p>Author contributions: G.C.N., H.V., R.D.S., M.V.L., H.L.-C., H.v.M., D.v.d.M., and C.M. designed research; G.C.N., H.V., R.D.S., P.H., H.A., D.D., J.E., S.F., T.H., E.H., P.K., M.V.L., H.L.-C., D.M.d., H.v.M., D.v.d.M., C.M., A.P., R.R., S.R., E.S., C.S., A.T., and D.W. performed research; G.C.N., H.V., R.D.S., P.H., H.A., D.D., J.E., S.F., T.H., E.H., P.K., M.V.L., H.L.-C., D.M.d., D.v.d.M., C.M., A.P., R.R., S.R., E.S., C.S., A.T., and D.W. analyzed data; and G.C.N. and H.V. wrote the paper.</p></fn></author-notes><pub-date pub-type="ppub"><day>4</day><month>3</month><year>2014</year></pub-date><pub-date pub-type="epub"><day>16</day><month>12</month><year>2013</year></pub-date><pub-date pub-type="pmc-release"><day>16</day><month>12</month><year>2013</year></pub-date><pmc-comment> PMC Release delay is 0 months and 0 days and was based on the
<volume>111</volume><issue>9</issue><fpage>3274</fpage><lpage>3279</lpage><self-uri xlink:title="pdf" xlink:type="simple" xlink:href="pnas.201222465.pdf"></self-uri><abstract abstract-type="executive-summary"><title>Significance</title><p>Plausible estimates of climate change impacts on agriculture require integrated use of climate, crop, and economic models. We investigate the contribution of economic models to uncertainty in this impact chain. In the nine economic models included, the direction of management intensity, area, consumption, and international trade responses to harmonized crop yield shocks from climate change are similar. However, the magnitudes differ significantly. The differences depend on model structure, in particular the specification of endogenous yield effects, land use change, and propensity to trade. These results highlight where future research on modeling climate change impacts on agriculture should focus.</p></abstract><abstract><p>Agricultural production is sensitive to weather and thus directly affected by climate change. Plausible estimates of these climate change impacts require combined use of climate, crop, and economic models. Results from previous studies vary substantially due to differences in models, scenarios, and data. This paper is part of a collective effort to systematically integrate these three types of models. We focus on the economic component of the assessment, investigating how nine global economic models of agriculture represent endogenous responses to seven standardized climate change scenarios produced by two climate and five crop models. These responses include adjustments in yields, area, consumption, and international trade. We apply biophysical shocks derived from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s representative concentration pathway with end-of-century radiative forcing of 8.5 W/m<sup>2</sup>. The mean biophysical yield effect with no incremental CO<sub>2</sub> fertilization is a 17% reduction globally by 2050 relative to a scenario with unchanging climate. Endogenous economic responses reduce yield loss to 11%, increase area of major crops by 11%, and reduce consumption by 3%. Agricultural production, cropland area, trade, and prices show the greatest degree of variability in response to climate change, and consumption the lowest. The sources of these differences include model structure and specification; in particular, model assumptions about ease of land use conversion, intensification, and trade. This study identifies where models disagree on the relative responses to climate shocks and highlights research activities needed to improve the representation of agricultural adaptation responses to climate change.</p></abstract><kwd-group><kwd>climate change adaptation</kwd><kwd>model intercomparison</kwd><kwd>integrated assessment</kwd><kwd>agricultural productivity</kwd></kwd-group><counts><page-count count="6"></page-count></counts><custom-meta-group><custom-meta><meta-name>access-type</meta-name><meta-value>free</meta-value></custom-meta></custom-meta-group></article-meta></front></pmc></record>Pour manipuler ce document sous Unix (Dilib)
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