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<record><TEI><teiHeader><fileDesc><titleStmt><title xml:lang="en">Identifying human influences on atmospheric temperature</title><author><name sortKey="Santer, Benjamin D" sort="Santer, Benjamin D" uniqKey="Santer B" first="Benjamin D." last="Santer">Benjamin D. Santer</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="aff1">Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison (PCMDI),<institution>Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory</institution>, Livermore,<addr-line>CA</addr-line> 94550;</nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Painter, Jeffrey F" sort="Painter, Jeffrey F" uniqKey="Painter J" first="Jeffrey F." last="Painter">Jeffrey F. Painter</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="aff1">Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison (PCMDI),<institution>Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory</institution>, Livermore,<addr-line>CA</addr-line> 94550;</nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Mears, Carl A" sort="Mears, Carl A" uniqKey="Mears C" first="Carl A." last="Mears">Carl A. Mears</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="aff2"><institution>Remote Sensing Systems</institution>, Santa Rosa,<addr-line>CA</addr-line> 95401;</nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Doutriaux, Charles" sort="Doutriaux, Charles" uniqKey="Doutriaux C" first="Charles" last="Doutriaux">Charles Doutriaux</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="aff1">Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison (PCMDI),<institution>Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory</institution>, Livermore,<addr-line>CA</addr-line> 94550;</nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Caldwell, Peter" sort="Caldwell, Peter" uniqKey="Caldwell P" first="Peter" last="Caldwell">Peter Caldwell</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="aff1">Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison (PCMDI),<institution>Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory</institution>, Livermore,<addr-line>CA</addr-line> 94550;</nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Arblaster, Julie M" sort="Arblaster, Julie M" uniqKey="Arblaster J" first="Julie M." last="Arblaster">Julie M. Arblaster</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="aff3">Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research,<institution>Bureau of Meteorology</institution>, Melbourne, VIC 3001,<country>Australia</country>;</nlm:aff></affiliation><affiliation><nlm:aff id="aff4"><institution>National Center for Atmospheric Research</institution>, Boulder,<addr-line>CO</addr-line> 80307;</nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Cameron Smith, Philip J" sort="Cameron Smith, Philip J" uniqKey="Cameron Smith P" first="Philip J." last="Cameron-Smith">Philip J. Cameron-Smith</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="aff1">Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison (PCMDI),<institution>Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory</institution>, Livermore,<addr-line>CA</addr-line> 94550;</nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Gillett, Nathan P" sort="Gillett, Nathan P" uniqKey="Gillett N" first="Nathan P." last="Gillett">Nathan P. Gillett</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="aff5">Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis,<institution>Environment Canada</institution>, Victoria, BC,<country>Canada</country> V8W 3V6;</nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Gleckler, Peter J" sort="Gleckler, Peter J" uniqKey="Gleckler P" first="Peter J." last="Gleckler">Peter J. Gleckler</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="aff1">Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison (PCMDI),<institution>Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory</institution>, Livermore,<addr-line>CA</addr-line> 94550;</nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Lanzante, John" sort="Lanzante, John" uniqKey="Lanzante J" first="John" last="Lanzante">John Lanzante</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="aff6"><institution>National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory</institution>, Princeton,<addr-line>NJ</addr-line> 08542;</nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Perlwitz, Judith" sort="Perlwitz, Judith" uniqKey="Perlwitz J" first="Judith" last="Perlwitz">Judith Perlwitz</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="aff7">Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences,<institution>University of Colorado</institution> and NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory, Physical Sciences Division, Boulder,<addr-line>CO</addr-line> 80305;</nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Solomon, Susan" sort="Solomon, Susan" uniqKey="Solomon S" first="Susan" last="Solomon">Susan Solomon</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="aff8">Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences,<institution>Massachusetts Institute of Technology</institution>, Cambridge,<addr-line>MA</addr-line> 02139;</nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Stott, Peter A" sort="Stott, Peter A" uniqKey="Stott P" first="Peter A." last="Stott">Peter A. Stott</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="aff9"><institution>United Kingdom Meteorology Office, Hadley Centre</institution>, Exeter EX1 3PB,<country>United Kingdom</country>;</nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Taylor, Karl E" sort="Taylor, Karl E" uniqKey="Taylor K" first="Karl E." last="Taylor">Karl E. Taylor</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="aff1">Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison (PCMDI),<institution>Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory</institution>, Livermore,<addr-line>CA</addr-line> 94550;</nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Terray, Laurent" sort="Terray, Laurent" uniqKey="Terray L" first="Laurent" last="Terray">Laurent Terray</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="aff10">Sciences de l’Univers au Centre Européen de Recherche et de Formation Avancée en Calcul Scientifique (CERFACS),<institution>CERFACS/Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique</institution>, URA1875 Toulouse,<country>France</country>;</nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Thorne, Peter W" sort="Thorne, Peter W" uniqKey="Thorne P" first="Peter W." last="Thorne">Peter W. Thorne</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="aff11">Cooperative Institute for Climate and Satellites,<institution>North Carolina State University, and National Climatic Data Center</institution>, Asheville,<addr-line>NC</addr-line> 28801;</nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Wehner, Michael F" sort="Wehner, Michael F" uniqKey="Wehner M" first="Michael F." last="Wehner">Michael F. Wehner</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="aff12"><institution>Computational Research Division, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory</institution>, Berkeley,<addr-line>CA</addr-line> 94720;</nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Wentz, Frank J" sort="Wentz, Frank J" uniqKey="Wentz F" first="Frank J." last="Wentz">Frank J. Wentz</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="aff2"><institution>Remote Sensing Systems</institution>, Santa Rosa,<addr-line>CA</addr-line> 95401;</nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Wigley, Tom M L" sort="Wigley, Tom M L" uniqKey="Wigley T" first="Tom M. L." last="Wigley">Tom M. L. Wigley</name><affiliation><nlm:aff>NONE</nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Wilcox, Laura J" sort="Wilcox, Laura J" uniqKey="Wilcox L" first="Laura J." last="Wilcox">Laura J. Wilcox</name><affiliation><nlm:aff wicri:cut="; and" id="aff14">National Centre for Atmospheric Science, Department of Meteorology,<institution>University of Reading</institution>, Reading RG6 6BB,<country>United Kingdom</country></nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Zou, Cheng Zhi" sort="Zou, Cheng Zhi" uniqKey="Zou C" first="Cheng-Zhi" last="Zou">Cheng-Zhi Zou</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="aff15">Center for Satellite Applications and Research,<institution></institution>National Environmental Satellite, Data, and Information Service, College Park,<addr-line>MD</addr-line> 20740</nlm:aff></affiliation></author></titleStmt><publicationStmt><idno type="wicri:source">PMC</idno><idno type="pmid">23197824</idno><idno type="pmc">3538189</idno><idno type="url">http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3538189</idno><idno type="RBID">PMC:3538189</idno><idno type="doi">10.1073/pnas.1210514109</idno><date when="2012">2012</date><idno type="wicri:Area/Pmc/Corpus">001B75</idno><idno type="wicri:explorRef" wicri:stream="Pmc" wicri:step="Corpus" wicri:corpus="PMC">001B75</idno></publicationStmt><sourceDesc><biblStruct><analytic><title xml:lang="en" level="a" type="main">Identifying human influences on atmospheric temperature</title><author><name sortKey="Santer, Benjamin D" sort="Santer, Benjamin D" uniqKey="Santer B" first="Benjamin D." last="Santer">Benjamin D. Santer</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="aff1">Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison (PCMDI),<institution>Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory</institution>, Livermore,<addr-line>CA</addr-line> 94550;</nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Painter, Jeffrey F" sort="Painter, Jeffrey F" uniqKey="Painter J" first="Jeffrey F." last="Painter">Jeffrey F. Painter</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="aff1">Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison (PCMDI),<institution>Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory</institution>, Livermore,<addr-line>CA</addr-line> 94550;</nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Mears, Carl A" sort="Mears, Carl A" uniqKey="Mears C" first="Carl A." last="Mears">Carl A. Mears</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="aff2"><institution>Remote Sensing Systems</institution>, Santa Rosa,<addr-line>CA</addr-line> 95401;</nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Doutriaux, Charles" sort="Doutriaux, Charles" uniqKey="Doutriaux C" first="Charles" last="Doutriaux">Charles Doutriaux</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="aff1">Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison (PCMDI),<institution>Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory</institution>, Livermore,<addr-line>CA</addr-line> 94550;</nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Caldwell, Peter" sort="Caldwell, Peter" uniqKey="Caldwell P" first="Peter" last="Caldwell">Peter Caldwell</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="aff1">Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison (PCMDI),<institution>Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory</institution>, Livermore,<addr-line>CA</addr-line> 94550;</nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Arblaster, Julie M" sort="Arblaster, Julie M" uniqKey="Arblaster J" first="Julie M." last="Arblaster">Julie M. Arblaster</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="aff3">Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research,<institution>Bureau of Meteorology</institution>, Melbourne, VIC 3001,<country>Australia</country>;</nlm:aff></affiliation><affiliation><nlm:aff id="aff4"><institution>National Center for Atmospheric Research</institution>, Boulder,<addr-line>CO</addr-line> 80307;</nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Cameron Smith, Philip J" sort="Cameron Smith, Philip J" uniqKey="Cameron Smith P" first="Philip J." last="Cameron-Smith">Philip J. Cameron-Smith</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="aff1">Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison (PCMDI),<institution>Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory</institution>, Livermore,<addr-line>CA</addr-line> 94550;</nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Gillett, Nathan P" sort="Gillett, Nathan P" uniqKey="Gillett N" first="Nathan P." last="Gillett">Nathan P. Gillett</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="aff5">Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis,<institution>Environment Canada</institution>, Victoria, BC,<country>Canada</country> V8W 3V6;</nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Gleckler, Peter J" sort="Gleckler, Peter J" uniqKey="Gleckler P" first="Peter J." last="Gleckler">Peter J. Gleckler</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="aff1">Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison (PCMDI),<institution>Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory</institution>, Livermore,<addr-line>CA</addr-line> 94550;</nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Lanzante, John" sort="Lanzante, John" uniqKey="Lanzante J" first="John" last="Lanzante">John Lanzante</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="aff6"><institution>National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory</institution>, Princeton,<addr-line>NJ</addr-line> 08542;</nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Perlwitz, Judith" sort="Perlwitz, Judith" uniqKey="Perlwitz J" first="Judith" last="Perlwitz">Judith Perlwitz</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="aff7">Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences,<institution>University of Colorado</institution> and NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory, Physical Sciences Division, Boulder,<addr-line>CO</addr-line> 80305;</nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Solomon, Susan" sort="Solomon, Susan" uniqKey="Solomon S" first="Susan" last="Solomon">Susan Solomon</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="aff8">Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences,<institution>Massachusetts Institute of Technology</institution>, Cambridge,<addr-line>MA</addr-line> 02139;</nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Stott, Peter A" sort="Stott, Peter A" uniqKey="Stott P" first="Peter A." last="Stott">Peter A. Stott</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="aff9"><institution>United Kingdom Meteorology Office, Hadley Centre</institution>, Exeter EX1 3PB,<country>United Kingdom</country>;</nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Taylor, Karl E" sort="Taylor, Karl E" uniqKey="Taylor K" first="Karl E." last="Taylor">Karl E. Taylor</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="aff1">Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison (PCMDI),<institution>Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory</institution>, Livermore,<addr-line>CA</addr-line> 94550;</nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Terray, Laurent" sort="Terray, Laurent" uniqKey="Terray L" first="Laurent" last="Terray">Laurent Terray</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="aff10">Sciences de l’Univers au Centre Européen de Recherche et de Formation Avancée en Calcul Scientifique (CERFACS),<institution>CERFACS/Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique</institution>, URA1875 Toulouse,<country>France</country>;</nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Thorne, Peter W" sort="Thorne, Peter W" uniqKey="Thorne P" first="Peter W." last="Thorne">Peter W. Thorne</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="aff11">Cooperative Institute for Climate and Satellites,<institution>North Carolina State University, and National Climatic Data Center</institution>, Asheville,<addr-line>NC</addr-line> 28801;</nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Wehner, Michael F" sort="Wehner, Michael F" uniqKey="Wehner M" first="Michael F." last="Wehner">Michael F. Wehner</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="aff12"><institution>Computational Research Division, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory</institution>, Berkeley,<addr-line>CA</addr-line> 94720;</nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Wentz, Frank J" sort="Wentz, Frank J" uniqKey="Wentz F" first="Frank J." last="Wentz">Frank J. Wentz</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="aff2"><institution>Remote Sensing Systems</institution>, Santa Rosa,<addr-line>CA</addr-line> 95401;</nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Wigley, Tom M L" sort="Wigley, Tom M L" uniqKey="Wigley T" first="Tom M. L." last="Wigley">Tom M. L. Wigley</name><affiliation><nlm:aff>NONE</nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Wilcox, Laura J" sort="Wilcox, Laura J" uniqKey="Wilcox L" first="Laura J." last="Wilcox">Laura J. Wilcox</name><affiliation><nlm:aff wicri:cut="; and" id="aff14">National Centre for Atmospheric Science, Department of Meteorology,<institution>University of Reading</institution>, Reading RG6 6BB,<country>United Kingdom</country></nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Zou, Cheng Zhi" sort="Zou, Cheng Zhi" uniqKey="Zou C" first="Cheng-Zhi" last="Zou">Cheng-Zhi Zou</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="aff15">Center for Satellite Applications and Research,<institution></institution>National Environmental Satellite, Data, and Information Service, College Park,<addr-line>MD</addr-line> 20740</nlm:aff></affiliation></author></analytic><series><title level="j">Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America</title><idno type="ISSN">0027-8424</idno><idno type="eISSN">1091-6490</idno><imprint><date when="2012">2012</date></imprint></series></biblStruct></sourceDesc></fileDesc><profileDesc><textClass></textClass></profileDesc></teiHeader><front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en"><p>We perform a multimodel detection and attribution study with climate model simulation output and satellite-based measurements of tropospheric and stratospheric temperature change. We use simulation output from 20 climate models participating in phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. This multimodel archive provides estimates of the signal pattern in response to combined anthropogenic and natural external forcing (the fingerprint) and the noise of internally generated variability. Using these estimates, we calculate signal-to-noise (S/N) ratios to quantify the strength of the fingerprint in the observations relative to fingerprint strength in natural climate noise. For changes in lower stratospheric temperature between 1979 and 2011, S/N ratios vary from 26 to 36, depending on the choice of observational dataset. In the lower troposphere, the fingerprint strength in observations is smaller, but S/N ratios are still significant at the 1% level or better, and range from three to eight. We find no evidence that these ratios are spuriously inflated by model variability errors. After removing all global mean signals, model fingerprints remain identifiable in 70% of the tests involving tropospheric temperature changes. Despite such agreement in the large-scale features of model and observed geographical patterns of atmospheric temperature change, most models do not replicate the size of the observed changes. On average, the models analyzed underestimate the observed cooling of the lower stratosphere and overestimate the warming of the troposphere. Although the precise causes of such differences are unclear, model biases in lower stratospheric temperature trends are likely to be reduced by more realistic treatment of stratospheric ozone depletion and volcanic aerosol forcing.</p></div></front></TEI><pmc article-type="research-article"><pmc-comment>The publisher of this article does not allow downloading of the full text in XML form.</pmc-comment>
<front><journal-meta><journal-id journal-id-type="nlm-ta">Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A</journal-id><journal-id journal-id-type="iso-abbrev">Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A</journal-id><journal-id journal-id-type="hwp">pnas</journal-id><journal-id journal-id-type="pmc">pnas</journal-id><journal-id journal-id-type="publisher-id">PNAS</journal-id><journal-title-group><journal-title>Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America</journal-title></journal-title-group><issn pub-type="ppub">0027-8424</issn><issn pub-type="epub">1091-6490</issn><publisher><publisher-name>National Academy of Sciences</publisher-name></publisher></journal-meta><article-meta><article-id pub-id-type="pmid">23197824</article-id><article-id pub-id-type="pmc">3538189</article-id><article-id pub-id-type="publisher-id">201210514</article-id><article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.1073/pnas.1210514109</article-id><article-categories><subj-group subj-group-type="heading"><subject>Physical Sciences</subject><subj-group><subject>Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences</subject></subj-group></subj-group><series-title>Inaugural Article</series-title></article-categories><title-group><article-title>Identifying human influences on atmospheric temperature</article-title><alt-title alt-title-type="short">Human influences on atmospheric temperature</alt-title></title-group><contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Santer</surname><given-names>Benjamin D.</given-names></name><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1"><sup>a</sup></xref><xref ref-type="corresp" rid="cor1"><sup>1</sup></xref></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Painter</surname><given-names>Jeffrey F.</given-names></name><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1"><sup>a</sup></xref></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Mears</surname><given-names>Carl A.</given-names></name><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2"><sup>b</sup></xref></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Doutriaux</surname><given-names>Charles</given-names></name><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1"><sup>a</sup></xref></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Caldwell</surname><given-names>Peter</given-names></name><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1"><sup>a</sup></xref></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Arblaster</surname><given-names>Julie M.</given-names></name><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff3"><sup>c</sup></xref><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff4"><sup>d</sup></xref></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Cameron-Smith</surname><given-names>Philip J.</given-names></name><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1"><sup>a</sup></xref></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Gillett</surname><given-names>Nathan P.</given-names></name><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff5"><sup>e</sup></xref></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Gleckler</surname><given-names>Peter J.</given-names></name><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1"><sup>a</sup></xref></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Lanzante</surname><given-names>John</given-names></name><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff6"><sup>f</sup></xref></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Perlwitz</surname><given-names>Judith</given-names></name><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff7"><sup>g</sup></xref></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Solomon</surname><given-names>Susan</given-names></name><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff8"><sup>h</sup></xref></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Stott</surname><given-names>Peter A.</given-names></name><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff9"><sup>i</sup></xref></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Taylor</surname><given-names>Karl E.</given-names></name><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1"><sup>a</sup></xref></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Terray</surname><given-names>Laurent</given-names></name><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff10"><sup>j</sup></xref></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Thorne</surname><given-names>Peter W.</given-names></name><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff11"><sup>k</sup></xref></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Wehner</surname><given-names>Michael F.</given-names></name><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff12"><sup>l</sup></xref></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Wentz</surname><given-names>Frank J.</given-names></name><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2"><sup>b</sup></xref></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Wigley</surname><given-names>Tom M. L.</given-names></name><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff4"><sup>d,m</sup></xref></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Wilcox</surname><given-names>Laura J.</given-names></name><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff14"><sup>n</sup></xref></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Zou</surname><given-names>Cheng-Zhi</given-names></name><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff15"><sup>o</sup></xref></contrib><aff id="aff1"><sup>a</sup>Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison (PCMDI),<institution>Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory</institution>, Livermore,<addr-line>CA</addr-line> 94550;</aff><aff id="aff2"><sup>b</sup><institution>Remote Sensing Systems</institution>, Santa Rosa,<addr-line>CA</addr-line> 95401;</aff><aff id="aff3"><sup>c</sup>Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research,<institution>Bureau of Meteorology</institution>, Melbourne, VIC 3001,<country>Australia</country>;</aff><aff id="aff4"><sup>d</sup><institution>National Center for Atmospheric Research</institution>, Boulder,<addr-line>CO</addr-line> 80307;</aff><aff id="aff5"><sup>e</sup>Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis,<institution>Environment Canada</institution>, Victoria, BC,<country>Canada</country> V8W 3V6;</aff><aff id="aff6"><sup>f</sup><institution>National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory</institution>, Princeton,<addr-line>NJ</addr-line> 08542;</aff><aff id="aff7"><sup>g</sup>Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences,<institution>University of Colorado</institution> and NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory, Physical Sciences Division, Boulder,<addr-line>CO</addr-line> 80305;</aff><aff id="aff8"><sup>h</sup>Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences,<institution>Massachusetts Institute of Technology</institution>, Cambridge,<addr-line>MA</addr-line> 02139;</aff><aff id="aff9"><sup>i</sup><institution>United Kingdom Meteorology Office, Hadley Centre</institution>, Exeter EX1 3PB,<country>United Kingdom</country>;</aff><aff id="aff10"><sup>j</sup>Sciences de l’Univers au Centre Européen de Recherche et de Formation Avancée en Calcul Scientifique (CERFACS),<institution>CERFACS/Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique</institution>, URA1875 Toulouse,<country>France</country>;</aff><aff id="aff11"><sup>k</sup>Cooperative Institute for Climate and Satellites,<institution>North Carolina State University, and National Climatic Data Center</institution>, Asheville,<addr-line>NC</addr-line> 28801;</aff><aff id="aff12"><sup>l</sup><institution>Computational Research Division, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory</institution>, Berkeley,<addr-line>CA</addr-line> 94720;</aff><aff id="aff17"><sup>m</sup><institution>School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Adelaide</institution>, Adelaide, SA 5005,<country>Australia</country>;</aff><aff id="aff14"><sup>n</sup>National Centre for Atmospheric Science, Department of Meteorology,<institution>University of Reading</institution>, Reading RG6 6BB,<country>United Kingdom</country>; and</aff><aff id="aff15"><sup>o</sup>Center for Satellite Applications and Research,<institution></institution>National Environmental Satellite, Data, and Information Service, College Park,<addr-line>MD</addr-line> 20740</aff></contrib-group><author-notes><corresp id="cor1"><sup>1</sup>To whom correspondence should be addressed. E-mail: <email>santer1@llnl.gov</email>.</corresp><fn fn-type="edited-by"><p>This article is part of the special series of Inaugural Articles by members of the National Academy of Sciences elected in 2011.</p></fn><fn fn-type="edited-by"><p>Contributed by Benjamin D. Santer, June 22, 2012</p></fn><fn fn-type="con"><p>Author contributions: B.D.S., C.A.M., S.S., K.E.T., L.T., F.J.W., and T.M.L.W. designed research; B.D.S., J.F.P., C.A.M., C.D., P.C., J.P., and L.J.W. performed research; B.D.S., J.F.P., C.A.M., C.D., P.C., P.J.C.-S., P.J.G., J.P., S.S., L.T., and L.J.W. analyzed data; C.A.M., F.J.W., and C.-Z.Z. contributed key observational datasets; and B.D.S., J.F.P., C.A.M., C.D., P.C., J.A., P.J.C.-S., N.P.G., P.J.G., J.L., J.P., S.S., P.A.S., K.E.T., L.T., P.W.T., M.F.W., F.J.W., T.M.L.W., L.J.W., and C.-Z.Z. wrote the paper.</p></fn></author-notes><pub-date pub-type="ppub"><day>2</day><month>1</month><year>2013</year></pub-date><pub-date pub-type="epub"><day>29</day><month>11</month><year>2012</year></pub-date><pub-date pub-type="pmc-release"><day>29</day><month>11</month><year>2012</year></pub-date><pmc-comment> PMC Release delay is 0 months and 0 days and was based on the
<volume>110</volume><issue>1</issue><fpage>26</fpage><lpage>33</lpage><permissions><license license-type="open-access"><license-p>Freely available online through the PNAS open access option.</license-p></license></permissions><self-uri xlink:title="pdf" xlink:type="simple" xlink:href="pnas.201210514.pdf"></self-uri><abstract><p>We perform a multimodel detection and attribution study with climate model simulation output and satellite-based measurements of tropospheric and stratospheric temperature change. We use simulation output from 20 climate models participating in phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. This multimodel archive provides estimates of the signal pattern in response to combined anthropogenic and natural external forcing (the fingerprint) and the noise of internally generated variability. Using these estimates, we calculate signal-to-noise (S/N) ratios to quantify the strength of the fingerprint in the observations relative to fingerprint strength in natural climate noise. For changes in lower stratospheric temperature between 1979 and 2011, S/N ratios vary from 26 to 36, depending on the choice of observational dataset. In the lower troposphere, the fingerprint strength in observations is smaller, but S/N ratios are still significant at the 1% level or better, and range from three to eight. We find no evidence that these ratios are spuriously inflated by model variability errors. After removing all global mean signals, model fingerprints remain identifiable in 70% of the tests involving tropospheric temperature changes. Despite such agreement in the large-scale features of model and observed geographical patterns of atmospheric temperature change, most models do not replicate the size of the observed changes. On average, the models analyzed underestimate the observed cooling of the lower stratosphere and overestimate the warming of the troposphere. Although the precise causes of such differences are unclear, model biases in lower stratospheric temperature trends are likely to be reduced by more realistic treatment of stratospheric ozone depletion and volcanic aerosol forcing.</p></abstract><kwd-group><kwd>climate change detection and attribution</kwd><kwd>climate modeling</kwd><kwd>multimodel analysis</kwd></kwd-group><counts><page-count count="7"></page-count></counts></article-meta></front></pmc></record>Pour manipuler ce document sous Unix (Dilib)
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