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<record><TEI><teiHeader><fileDesc><titleStmt><title xml:lang="en">Impacts of climate change on the world's most exceptional ecoregions</title><author><name sortKey="Beaumont, Linda J" sort="Beaumont, Linda J" uniqKey="Beaumont L" first="Linda J." last="Beaumont">Linda J. Beaumont</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="aff1">Department of Biological Sciences,<institution>Macquarie University</institution>, Sydney, NSW 2109,<country>Australia</country>;</nlm:aff></affiliation><affiliation><nlm:aff id="aff2">Laboratoire d'Ecologie Alpine, Unité Mixte de Recherche Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique 5553,<institution>Université de Grenoble</institution>, BP 53, 38041 Grenoble Cedex 9,<country>France</country>;</nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Pitman, Andrew" sort="Pitman, Andrew" uniqKey="Pitman A" first="Andrew" last="Pitman">Andrew Pitman</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="aff3">Climate Change Research Centre,<institution>University of New South Wales</institution>, Sydney, NSW 2052,<country>Australia</country>;</nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Perkins, Sarah" sort="Perkins, Sarah" uniqKey="Perkins S" first="Sarah" last="Perkins">Sarah Perkins</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="aff3">Climate Change Research Centre,<institution>University of New South Wales</institution>, Sydney, NSW 2052,<country>Australia</country>;</nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Zimmermann, Niklaus E" sort="Zimmermann, Niklaus E" uniqKey="Zimmermann N" first="Niklaus E." last="Zimmermann">Niklaus E. Zimmermann</name><affiliation><nlm:aff wicri:cut="; and" id="aff4">Landscape Dynamics,<institution>Swiss Federal Research Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research,</institution> 8903 Birmensdorf,<country>Switzerland</country></nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Yoccoz, Nigel G" sort="Yoccoz, Nigel G" uniqKey="Yoccoz N" first="Nigel G." last="Yoccoz">Nigel G. Yoccoz</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="aff5">Department of Arctic and Marine Biology, Faculty of Biosciences, Fisheries and Economics,<institution>University of Tromsø</institution>, N-9037 Tromsø,<country>Norway</country></nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Thuiller, Wilfried" sort="Thuiller, Wilfried" uniqKey="Thuiller W" first="Wilfried" last="Thuiller">Wilfried Thuiller</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="aff2">Laboratoire d'Ecologie Alpine, Unité Mixte de Recherche Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique 5553,<institution>Université de Grenoble</institution>, BP 53, 38041 Grenoble Cedex 9,<country>France</country>;</nlm:aff></affiliation></author></titleStmt><publicationStmt><idno type="wicri:source">PMC</idno><idno type="pmid">21262825</idno><idno type="pmc">3038729</idno><idno type="url">http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3038729</idno><idno type="RBID">PMC:3038729</idno><idno type="doi">10.1073/pnas.1007217108</idno><date when="2011">2011</date><idno type="wicri:Area/Pmc/Corpus">001B45</idno><idno type="wicri:explorRef" wicri:stream="Pmc" wicri:step="Corpus" wicri:corpus="PMC">001B45</idno></publicationStmt><sourceDesc><biblStruct><analytic><title xml:lang="en" level="a" type="main">Impacts of climate change on the world's most exceptional ecoregions</title><author><name sortKey="Beaumont, Linda J" sort="Beaumont, Linda J" uniqKey="Beaumont L" first="Linda J." last="Beaumont">Linda J. Beaumont</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="aff1">Department of Biological Sciences,<institution>Macquarie University</institution>, Sydney, NSW 2109,<country>Australia</country>;</nlm:aff></affiliation><affiliation><nlm:aff id="aff2">Laboratoire d'Ecologie Alpine, Unité Mixte de Recherche Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique 5553,<institution>Université de Grenoble</institution>, BP 53, 38041 Grenoble Cedex 9,<country>France</country>;</nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Pitman, Andrew" sort="Pitman, Andrew" uniqKey="Pitman A" first="Andrew" last="Pitman">Andrew Pitman</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="aff3">Climate Change Research Centre,<institution>University of New South Wales</institution>, Sydney, NSW 2052,<country>Australia</country>;</nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Perkins, Sarah" sort="Perkins, Sarah" uniqKey="Perkins S" first="Sarah" last="Perkins">Sarah Perkins</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="aff3">Climate Change Research Centre,<institution>University of New South Wales</institution>, Sydney, NSW 2052,<country>Australia</country>;</nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Zimmermann, Niklaus E" sort="Zimmermann, Niklaus E" uniqKey="Zimmermann N" first="Niklaus E." last="Zimmermann">Niklaus E. Zimmermann</name><affiliation><nlm:aff wicri:cut="; and" id="aff4">Landscape Dynamics,<institution>Swiss Federal Research Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research,</institution> 8903 Birmensdorf,<country>Switzerland</country></nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Yoccoz, Nigel G" sort="Yoccoz, Nigel G" uniqKey="Yoccoz N" first="Nigel G." last="Yoccoz">Nigel G. Yoccoz</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="aff5">Department of Arctic and Marine Biology, Faculty of Biosciences, Fisheries and Economics,<institution>University of Tromsø</institution>, N-9037 Tromsø,<country>Norway</country></nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Thuiller, Wilfried" sort="Thuiller, Wilfried" uniqKey="Thuiller W" first="Wilfried" last="Thuiller">Wilfried Thuiller</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="aff2">Laboratoire d'Ecologie Alpine, Unité Mixte de Recherche Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique 5553,<institution>Université de Grenoble</institution>, BP 53, 38041 Grenoble Cedex 9,<country>France</country>;</nlm:aff></affiliation></author></analytic><series><title level="j">Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America</title><idno type="ISSN">0027-8424</idno><idno type="eISSN">1091-6490</idno><imprint><date when="2011">2011</date></imprint></series></biblStruct></sourceDesc></fileDesc><profileDesc><textClass></textClass></profileDesc></teiHeader><front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en"><p>The current rate of warming due to increases in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions is very likely unprecedented over the last 10,000 y. Although the majority of countries have adopted the view that global warming must be limited to <2 °C, current GHG emission rates and nonagreement at Copenhagen in December 2009 increase the likelihood of this limit being exceeded by 2100. Extensive evidence has linked major changes in biological systems to 20th century warming. The “Global 200” comprises 238 ecoregions of exceptional biodiversity [Olson DM, Dinerstein E (2002) <italic>Ann Mo Bot Gard</italic> 89:199–224]. We assess the likelihood that, by 2070, these iconic ecoregions will regularly experience monthly climatic conditions that were extreme in 1961–1990. Using >600 realizations from climate model ensembles, we show that up to 86% of terrestrial and 83% of freshwater ecoregions will be exposed to average monthly temperature patterns >2 SDs (2σ) of the 1961–1990 baseline, including 82% of critically endangered ecoregions. The entire range of 89 ecoregions will experience extreme monthly temperatures with a local warming of <2 °C. Tropical and subtropical ecoregions, and mangroves, face extreme conditions earliest, some with <1 °C warming. In contrast, few ecoregions within Boreal Forests and Tundra biomes will experience such extremes this century. On average, precipitation regimes do not exceed 2σ of the baseline period, although considerable variability exists across the climate realizations. Further, the strength of the correlation between seasonal temperature and precipitation changes over numerous ecoregions. These results suggest many Global 200 ecoregions may be under substantial climatic stress by 2100.</p></div></front></TEI><pmc article-type="research-article"><pmc-comment>The publisher of this article does not allow downloading of the full text in XML form.</pmc-comment>
<front><journal-meta><journal-id journal-id-type="nlm-ta">Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A</journal-id><journal-id journal-id-type="hwp">pnas</journal-id><journal-id journal-id-type="pmc">pnas</journal-id><journal-id journal-id-type="publisher-id">PNAS</journal-id><journal-title-group><journal-title>Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America</journal-title></journal-title-group><issn pub-type="ppub">0027-8424</issn><issn pub-type="epub">1091-6490</issn><publisher><publisher-name>National Academy of Sciences</publisher-name></publisher></journal-meta><article-meta><article-id pub-id-type="pmid">21262825</article-id><article-id pub-id-type="pmc">3038729</article-id><article-id pub-id-type="publisher-id">201007217</article-id><article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.1073/pnas.1007217108</article-id><article-categories><subj-group subj-group-type="heading"><subject>Biological Sciences</subject><subj-group><subject>Ecology</subject></subj-group></subj-group></article-categories><title-group><article-title>Impacts of climate change on the world's most exceptional ecoregions</article-title></title-group><contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Beaumont</surname><given-names>Linda J.</given-names></name><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1"><sup>a</sup></xref><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2"><sup>b</sup></xref><xref ref-type="corresp" rid="cor1"><sup>1</sup></xref></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Pitman</surname><given-names>Andrew</given-names></name><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff3"><sup>c</sup></xref></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Perkins</surname><given-names>Sarah</given-names></name><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff3"><sup>c</sup></xref></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Zimmermann</surname><given-names>Niklaus E.</given-names></name><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff4"><sup>d</sup></xref></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Yoccoz</surname><given-names>Nigel G.</given-names></name><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff5"><sup>e</sup></xref></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Thuiller</surname><given-names>Wilfried</given-names></name><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2"><sup>b</sup></xref></contrib><aff id="aff1"><sup>a</sup>Department of Biological Sciences,<institution>Macquarie University</institution>, Sydney, NSW 2109,<country>Australia</country>;</aff><aff id="aff2"><sup>b</sup>Laboratoire d'Ecologie Alpine, Unité Mixte de Recherche Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique 5553,<institution>Université de Grenoble</institution>, BP 53, 38041 Grenoble Cedex 9,<country>France</country>;</aff><aff id="aff3"><sup>c</sup>Climate Change Research Centre,<institution>University of New South Wales</institution>, Sydney, NSW 2052,<country>Australia</country>;</aff><aff id="aff4"><sup>d</sup>Landscape Dynamics,<institution>Swiss Federal Research Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research,</institution> 8903 Birmensdorf,<country>Switzerland</country>; and</aff><aff id="aff5"><sup>e</sup>Department of Arctic and Marine Biology, Faculty of Biosciences, Fisheries and Economics,<institution>University of Tromsø</institution>, N-9037 Tromsø,<country>Norway</country></aff></contrib-group><author-notes><corresp id="cor1"><sup>1</sup>To whom correspondence should be addressed. E-mail: <email>lbeaumon@rna.bio.mq.edu.au</email>.</corresp><fn fn-type="edited-by"><p>Edited by Rodolfo Dirzo, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, and approved December 16, 2010 (received for review June 6, 2010)</p></fn><fn fn-type="con"><p>Author contributions: L.J.B., A.P., N.E.Z., N.G.Y., and W.T. designed research; L.J.B., A.P., S.P., N.E.Z., N.G.Y., and W.T. performed research; L.J.B. analyzed data; and L.J.B., A.P., S.P., N.E.Z., N.G.Y., and W.T. wrote the paper.</p></fn></author-notes><pub-date pub-type="ppub"><day>8</day><month>2</month><year>2011</year></pub-date><pub-date pub-type="epub"><day>24</day><month>1</month><year>2011</year></pub-date><volume>108</volume><issue>6</issue><fpage>2306</fpage><lpage>2311</lpage><self-uri xlink:title="pdf" xlink:type="simple" xlink:href="pnas.201007217.pdf"></self-uri><abstract><p>The current rate of warming due to increases in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions is very likely unprecedented over the last 10,000 y. Although the majority of countries have adopted the view that global warming must be limited to <2 °C, current GHG emission rates and nonagreement at Copenhagen in December 2009 increase the likelihood of this limit being exceeded by 2100. Extensive evidence has linked major changes in biological systems to 20th century warming. The “Global 200” comprises 238 ecoregions of exceptional biodiversity [Olson DM, Dinerstein E (2002) <italic>Ann Mo Bot Gard</italic> 89:199–224]. We assess the likelihood that, by 2070, these iconic ecoregions will regularly experience monthly climatic conditions that were extreme in 1961–1990. Using >600 realizations from climate model ensembles, we show that up to 86% of terrestrial and 83% of freshwater ecoregions will be exposed to average monthly temperature patterns >2 SDs (2σ) of the 1961–1990 baseline, including 82% of critically endangered ecoregions. The entire range of 89 ecoregions will experience extreme monthly temperatures with a local warming of <2 °C. Tropical and subtropical ecoregions, and mangroves, face extreme conditions earliest, some with <1 °C warming. In contrast, few ecoregions within Boreal Forests and Tundra biomes will experience such extremes this century. On average, precipitation regimes do not exceed 2σ of the baseline period, although considerable variability exists across the climate realizations. Further, the strength of the correlation between seasonal temperature and precipitation changes over numerous ecoregions. These results suggest many Global 200 ecoregions may be under substantial climatic stress by 2100.</p></abstract><kwd-group><kwd>climate impacts</kwd><kwd>climate model ensemble</kwd><kwd>conservation</kwd></kwd-group></article-meta></front></pmc></record>Pour manipuler ce document sous Unix (Dilib)
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