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<record><TEI><teiHeader><fileDesc><titleStmt><title xml:lang="en">Assessing dangerous climate change through an update of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) “reasons for concern”</title><author><name sortKey="Smith, Joel B" sort="Smith, Joel B" uniqKey="Smith J" first="Joel B." last="Smith">Joel B. Smith</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="aff1">Stratus Consulting, Inc., Boulder, CO 80306-4059;</nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Schneider, Stephen H" sort="Schneider, Stephen H" uniqKey="Schneider S" first="Stephen H." last="Schneider">Stephen H. Schneider</name><affiliation><nlm:aff wicri:cut=" and" id="aff2">Department of Biology</nlm:aff></affiliation><affiliation><nlm:aff id="aff3">Woods Institute for the Environment, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305;</nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Oppenheimer, Michael" sort="Oppenheimer, Michael" uniqKey="Oppenheimer M" first="Michael" last="Oppenheimer">Michael Oppenheimer</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="aff4">Department of Geosciences and the Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08544;</nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Yohe, Gary W" sort="Yohe, Gary W" uniqKey="Yohe G" first="Gary W." last="Yohe">Gary W. Yohe</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="aff5">Department of Economics, Wesleyan University, Middletown, CT 06459;</nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Hare, William" sort="Hare, William" uniqKey="Hare W" first="William" last="Hare">William Hare</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="aff6">Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, 14473 Potsdam, Germany;</nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Mastrandrea, Michael D" sort="Mastrandrea, Michael D" uniqKey="Mastrandrea M" first="Michael D." last="Mastrandrea">Michael D. Mastrandrea</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="aff3">Woods Institute for the Environment, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305;</nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Patwardhan, Anand" sort="Patwardhan, Anand" uniqKey="Patwardhan A" first="Anand" last="Patwardhan">Anand Patwardhan</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="aff7">Shailesh J. Mehta School of Management, Indian Institute of Technology-Bombay Powai, Mumbai 400076, India;</nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Burton, Ian" sort="Burton, Ian" uniqKey="Burton I" first="Ian" last="Burton">Ian Burton</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="aff8">University of Toronto, Toronto, ON M6J 2C1 Canada;</nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Corfee Morlot, Jan" sort="Corfee Morlot, Jan" uniqKey="Corfee Morlot J" first="Jan" last="Corfee-Morlot">Jan Corfee-Morlot</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="aff9">Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development, 75776 Paris Cedex 16, France;</nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Magadza, Chris H D" sort="Magadza, Chris H D" uniqKey="Magadza C" first="Chris H. D." last="Magadza">Chris H. D. Magadza</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="aff10">Department of Biological Sciences, University Lake Kariba Research Station, Harare, Zimbabwe;</nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Fussel, Hans Martin" sort="Fussel, Hans Martin" uniqKey="Fussel H" first="Hans-Martin" last="Füssel">Hans-Martin Füssel</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="aff6">Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, 14473 Potsdam, Germany;</nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Pittock, A Barrie" sort="Pittock, A Barrie" uniqKey="Pittock A" first="A. Barrie" last="Pittock">A. Barrie Pittock</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="aff11">CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research, Aspendale 3195, Australia;</nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Rahman, Atiq" sort="Rahman, Atiq" uniqKey="Rahman A" first="Atiq" last="Rahman">Atiq Rahman</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="aff12">Bangladesh Centre for Advanced Studies, Dhaka, 1212 Bangladesh;</nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Suarez, Avelino" sort="Suarez, Avelino" uniqKey="Suarez A" first="Avelino" last="Suarez">Avelino Suarez</name><affiliation><nlm:aff wicri:cut="; and" id="aff13">Institute of Ecology and Systematic, Cuba Environmental Agency, 10800 Havana, Cuba</nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Van Ypersele, Jean Pascal" sort="Van Ypersele, Jean Pascal" uniqKey="Van Ypersele J" first="Jean-Pascal" last="Van Ypersele">Jean-Pascal Van Ypersele</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="aff14">Institut d'Astronomie et de Géophysique Georges Lemaître, Université Catholique de Louvain, B-1348 Louvain-la-Neuve, Belgium</nlm:aff></affiliation></author></titleStmt><publicationStmt><idno type="wicri:source">PMC</idno><idno type="pmid">19251662</idno><idno type="pmc">2648893</idno><idno type="url">http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2648893</idno><idno type="RBID">PMC:2648893</idno><idno type="doi">10.1073/pnas.0812355106</idno><date when="2009">2009</date><idno type="wicri:Area/Pmc/Corpus">001B24</idno><idno type="wicri:explorRef" wicri:stream="Pmc" wicri:step="Corpus" wicri:corpus="PMC">001B24</idno></publicationStmt><sourceDesc><biblStruct><analytic><title xml:lang="en" level="a" type="main">Assessing dangerous climate change through an update of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) “reasons for concern”</title><author><name sortKey="Smith, Joel B" sort="Smith, Joel B" uniqKey="Smith J" first="Joel B." last="Smith">Joel B. Smith</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="aff1">Stratus Consulting, Inc., Boulder, CO 80306-4059;</nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Schneider, Stephen H" sort="Schneider, Stephen H" uniqKey="Schneider S" first="Stephen H." last="Schneider">Stephen H. Schneider</name><affiliation><nlm:aff wicri:cut=" and" id="aff2">Department of Biology</nlm:aff></affiliation><affiliation><nlm:aff id="aff3">Woods Institute for the Environment, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305;</nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Oppenheimer, Michael" sort="Oppenheimer, Michael" uniqKey="Oppenheimer M" first="Michael" last="Oppenheimer">Michael Oppenheimer</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="aff4">Department of Geosciences and the Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08544;</nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Yohe, Gary W" sort="Yohe, Gary W" uniqKey="Yohe G" first="Gary W." last="Yohe">Gary W. Yohe</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="aff5">Department of Economics, Wesleyan University, Middletown, CT 06459;</nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Hare, William" sort="Hare, William" uniqKey="Hare W" first="William" last="Hare">William Hare</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="aff6">Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, 14473 Potsdam, Germany;</nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Mastrandrea, Michael D" sort="Mastrandrea, Michael D" uniqKey="Mastrandrea M" first="Michael D." last="Mastrandrea">Michael D. Mastrandrea</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="aff3">Woods Institute for the Environment, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305;</nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Patwardhan, Anand" sort="Patwardhan, Anand" uniqKey="Patwardhan A" first="Anand" last="Patwardhan">Anand Patwardhan</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="aff7">Shailesh J. Mehta School of Management, Indian Institute of Technology-Bombay Powai, Mumbai 400076, India;</nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Burton, Ian" sort="Burton, Ian" uniqKey="Burton I" first="Ian" last="Burton">Ian Burton</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="aff8">University of Toronto, Toronto, ON M6J 2C1 Canada;</nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Corfee Morlot, Jan" sort="Corfee Morlot, Jan" uniqKey="Corfee Morlot J" first="Jan" last="Corfee-Morlot">Jan Corfee-Morlot</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="aff9">Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development, 75776 Paris Cedex 16, France;</nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Magadza, Chris H D" sort="Magadza, Chris H D" uniqKey="Magadza C" first="Chris H. D." last="Magadza">Chris H. D. Magadza</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="aff10">Department of Biological Sciences, University Lake Kariba Research Station, Harare, Zimbabwe;</nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Fussel, Hans Martin" sort="Fussel, Hans Martin" uniqKey="Fussel H" first="Hans-Martin" last="Füssel">Hans-Martin Füssel</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="aff6">Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, 14473 Potsdam, Germany;</nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Pittock, A Barrie" sort="Pittock, A Barrie" uniqKey="Pittock A" first="A. Barrie" last="Pittock">A. Barrie Pittock</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="aff11">CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research, Aspendale 3195, Australia;</nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Rahman, Atiq" sort="Rahman, Atiq" uniqKey="Rahman A" first="Atiq" last="Rahman">Atiq Rahman</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="aff12">Bangladesh Centre for Advanced Studies, Dhaka, 1212 Bangladesh;</nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Suarez, Avelino" sort="Suarez, Avelino" uniqKey="Suarez A" first="Avelino" last="Suarez">Avelino Suarez</name><affiliation><nlm:aff wicri:cut="; and" id="aff13">Institute of Ecology and Systematic, Cuba Environmental Agency, 10800 Havana, Cuba</nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Van Ypersele, Jean Pascal" sort="Van Ypersele, Jean Pascal" uniqKey="Van Ypersele J" first="Jean-Pascal" last="Van Ypersele">Jean-Pascal Van Ypersele</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="aff14">Institut d'Astronomie et de Géophysique Georges Lemaître, Université Catholique de Louvain, B-1348 Louvain-la-Neuve, Belgium</nlm:aff></affiliation></author></analytic><series><title level="j">Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America</title><idno type="ISSN">0027-8424</idno><idno type="eISSN">1091-6490</idno><imprint><date when="2009">2009</date></imprint></series></biblStruct></sourceDesc></fileDesc><profileDesc><textClass></textClass></profileDesc></teiHeader><front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en"><p>Article 2 of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change [United Nations (1992) <ext-link ext-link-type="uri" xlink:href="http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/convkp/conveng.pdf">http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/convkp/conveng.pdf</ext-link>. Accessed February 9, 2009] commits signatory nations to stabilizing greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that “would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference (DAI) with the climate system.” In an effort to provide some insight into impacts of climate change that might be considered DAI, authors of the Third Assessment Report (TAR) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) identified 5 “reasons for concern” (RFCs). Relationships between various impacts reflected in each RFC and increases in global mean temperature (GMT) were portrayed in what has come to be called the “burning embers diagram.” In presenting the “embers” in the TAR, IPCC authors did not assess whether any single RFC was more important than any other; nor did they conclude what level of impacts or what atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases would constitute DAI, a value judgment that would be policy prescriptive. Here, we describe revisions of the sensitivities of the RFCs to increases in GMT and a more thorough understanding of the concept of vulnerability that has evolved over the past 8 years. This is based on our expert judgment about new findings in the growing literature since the publication of the TAR in 2001, including literature that was assessed in the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4), as well as additional research published since AR4. Compared with results reported in the TAR, smaller increases in GMT are now estimated to lead to significant or substantial consequences in the framework of the 5 “reasons for concern.”</p></div></front></TEI><pmc article-type="research-article"><pmc-comment>The publisher of this article does not allow downloading of the full text in XML form.</pmc-comment>
<front><journal-meta><journal-id journal-id-type="nlm-ta">Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A</journal-id><journal-id journal-id-type="hwp">pnas</journal-id><journal-id journal-id-type="pmc">pnas</journal-id><journal-id journal-id-type="publisher-id">PNAS</journal-id><journal-title-group><journal-title>Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America</journal-title></journal-title-group><issn pub-type="ppub">0027-8424</issn><issn pub-type="epub">1091-6490</issn><publisher><publisher-name>National Academy of Sciences</publisher-name></publisher></journal-meta><article-meta><article-id pub-id-type="pmid">19251662</article-id><article-id pub-id-type="pmc">2648893</article-id><article-id pub-id-type="publisher-id">6948</article-id><article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.1073/pnas.0812355106</article-id><article-categories><subj-group subj-group-type="heading"><subject>Social Sciences</subject><subj-group><subject>Environmental Sciences</subject></subj-group></subj-group><series-title>From the Cover</series-title></article-categories><title-group><article-title>Assessing dangerous climate change through an update of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) “reasons for concern”</article-title></title-group><contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Smith</surname><given-names>Joel B.</given-names></name><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1"><sup>a</sup></xref><xref ref-type="corresp" rid="cor1"><sup>1</sup></xref></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Schneider</surname><given-names>Stephen H.</given-names></name><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2"><sup>b</sup></xref><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff3"><sup>c</sup></xref><xref ref-type="corresp" rid="cor1"><sup>1</sup></xref></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Oppenheimer</surname><given-names>Michael</given-names></name><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff4"><sup>d</sup></xref></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Yohe</surname><given-names>Gary W.</given-names></name><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff5"><sup>e</sup></xref></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Hare</surname><given-names>William</given-names></name><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff6"><sup>f</sup></xref></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Mastrandrea</surname><given-names>Michael D.</given-names></name><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff3"><sup>c</sup></xref></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Patwardhan</surname><given-names>Anand</given-names></name><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff7"><sup>g</sup></xref></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Burton</surname><given-names>Ian</given-names></name><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff8"><sup>h</sup></xref></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Corfee-Morlot</surname><given-names>Jan</given-names></name><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff9"><sup>i</sup></xref></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Magadza</surname><given-names>Chris H. D.</given-names></name><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff10"><sup>j</sup></xref></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Füssel</surname><given-names>Hans-Martin</given-names></name><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff6"><sup>f</sup></xref></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Pittock</surname><given-names>A. Barrie</given-names></name><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff11"><sup>k</sup></xref></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Rahman</surname><given-names>Atiq</given-names></name><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff12"><sup>l</sup></xref></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Suarez</surname><given-names>Avelino</given-names></name><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff13"><sup>m</sup></xref></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>van Ypersele</surname><given-names>Jean-Pascal</given-names></name><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff14"><sup>n</sup></xref></contrib><aff id="aff1"><sup>a</sup>Stratus Consulting, Inc., Boulder, CO 80306-4059;</aff><aff id="aff2"><sup>b</sup>Department of Biology and</aff><aff id="aff3"><sup>c</sup>Woods Institute for the Environment, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305;</aff><aff id="aff4"><sup>d</sup>Department of Geosciences and the Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08544;</aff><aff id="aff5"><sup>e</sup>Department of Economics, Wesleyan University, Middletown, CT 06459;</aff><aff id="aff6"><sup>f</sup>Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, 14473 Potsdam, Germany;</aff><aff id="aff7"><sup>g</sup>Shailesh J. Mehta School of Management, Indian Institute of Technology-Bombay Powai, Mumbai 400076, India;</aff><aff id="aff8"><sup>h</sup>University of Toronto, Toronto, ON M6J 2C1 Canada;</aff><aff id="aff9"><sup>i</sup>Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development, 75776 Paris Cedex 16, France;</aff><aff id="aff10"><sup>j</sup>Department of Biological Sciences, University Lake Kariba Research Station, Harare, Zimbabwe;</aff><aff id="aff11"><sup>k</sup>CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research, Aspendale 3195, Australia;</aff><aff id="aff12"><sup>l</sup>Bangladesh Centre for Advanced Studies, Dhaka, 1212 Bangladesh;</aff><aff id="aff13"><sup>m</sup>Institute of Ecology and Systematic, Cuba Environmental Agency, 10800 Havana, Cuba; and</aff><aff id="aff14"><sup>n</sup>Institut d'Astronomie et de Géophysique Georges Lemaître, Université Catholique de Louvain, B-1348 Louvain-la-Neuve, Belgium</aff></contrib-group><author-notes><corresp id="cor1"><sup>1</sup>To whom correspondence may be addressed. E-mail: <email>jsmith@stratusconsulting.com</email> or <email>shs@stanford.edu</email></corresp><fn fn-type="con"><p>Contributed by Stephen H. Schneider, December 9, 2008</p></fn><fn fn-type="con"><p>Author contributions: J.B.S., S.H.S., M.O., G.W.Y., W.H., M.D.M., A.P., I.B., J.C.-M., C.H.D.M., H.-M.F., A.B.P., A.R., A.S., and J.-P.v.Y. performed research; and J.B.S., S.H.S., M.O., G.W.Y., W.H., M.D.M., A.P., I.B., J.C.-M., C.H.D.M., H.-M.F., A.B.P., A.R., A.S., and J.-P.v.Y. wrote the paper.</p></fn></author-notes><pub-date pub-type="ppub"><day>17</day><month>3</month><year>2009</year></pub-date><pub-date pub-type="epub"><day>26</day><month>2</month><year>2009</year></pub-date><pub-date pub-type="pmc-release"><day>26</day><month>2</month><year>2009</year></pub-date><pmc-comment> PMC Release delay is 0 months and 0 days and was based on the
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<volume>106</volume><issue>11</issue><fpage>4133</fpage><lpage>4137</lpage><history><date date-type="received"><day>18</day><month>3</month><year>2008</year></date></history><permissions><license license-type="open-access"><license-p>Freely available online through the PNAS open access option.</license-p></license></permissions><self-uri xlink:title="pdf" xlink:type="simple" xlink:href="zpq01109004133.pdf"></self-uri><abstract><p>Article 2 of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change [United Nations (1992) <ext-link ext-link-type="uri" xlink:href="http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/convkp/conveng.pdf">http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/convkp/conveng.pdf</ext-link>. Accessed February 9, 2009] commits signatory nations to stabilizing greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that “would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference (DAI) with the climate system.” In an effort to provide some insight into impacts of climate change that might be considered DAI, authors of the Third Assessment Report (TAR) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) identified 5 “reasons for concern” (RFCs). Relationships between various impacts reflected in each RFC and increases in global mean temperature (GMT) were portrayed in what has come to be called the “burning embers diagram.” In presenting the “embers” in the TAR, IPCC authors did not assess whether any single RFC was more important than any other; nor did they conclude what level of impacts or what atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases would constitute DAI, a value judgment that would be policy prescriptive. Here, we describe revisions of the sensitivities of the RFCs to increases in GMT and a more thorough understanding of the concept of vulnerability that has evolved over the past 8 years. This is based on our expert judgment about new findings in the growing literature since the publication of the TAR in 2001, including literature that was assessed in the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4), as well as additional research published since AR4. Compared with results reported in the TAR, smaller increases in GMT are now estimated to lead to significant or substantial consequences in the framework of the 5 “reasons for concern.”</p></abstract><kwd-group><kwd>Article 2</kwd><kwd>UNFCCC</kwd><kwd>climate change impacts</kwd></kwd-group></article-meta></front></pmc></record>Pour manipuler ce document sous Unix (Dilib)
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