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<record><TEI><teiHeader><fileDesc><titleStmt><title xml:lang="en">Predicting extinction risks under climate change: coupling stochastic population models with dynamic bioclimatic habitat models</title><author><name sortKey="Keith, David A" sort="Keith, David A" uniqKey="Keith D" first="David A" last="Keith">David A. Keith</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="aff1"><institution>NSW Department of Environment and Climate Change</institution><addr-line>PO Box 1967, Hurstville, NSW 2220, Australia</addr-line></nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Akcakaya, H Resit" sort="Akcakaya, H Resit" uniqKey="Akcakaya H" first="H. Resit" last="Akçakaya">H. Resit Akçakaya</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="aff2"><institution>Department of Ecology and Evolution, Stony Brook University</institution><addr-line>Stony Brook, NY 11794-5245, USA</addr-line></nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Thuiller, Wilfried" sort="Thuiller, Wilfried" uniqKey="Thuiller W" first="Wilfried" last="Thuiller">Wilfried Thuiller</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="aff3"><institution>Laboratoire d'Ecologie Alpine, UMR-CNRS 5553</institution><addr-line>38041 Grenoble, France</addr-line></nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Midgley, Guy F" sort="Midgley, Guy F" uniqKey="Midgley G" first="Guy F" last="Midgley">Guy F. Midgley</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="aff4"><institution>South African National Biodiversity Institute</institution><addr-line>7735 Cape Town, Republic of South Africa</addr-line></nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Pearson, Richard G" sort="Pearson, Richard G" uniqKey="Pearson R" first="Richard G" last="Pearson">Richard G. Pearson</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="aff5"><institution>American Museum of Natural History</institution><addr-line>New York, NY 10024, USA</addr-line></nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Phillips, Steven J" sort="Phillips, Steven J" uniqKey="Phillips S" first="Steven J" last="Phillips">Steven J. Phillips</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="aff6"><institution>AT&T Labs Research</institution><addr-line>Florham Park, NJ 07932, USA</addr-line></nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Regan, Helen M" sort="Regan, Helen M" uniqKey="Regan H" first="Helen M" last="Regan">Helen M. Regan</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="aff7"><institution>University of California</institution><addr-line>Riverside, CA 92521, USA</addr-line></nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Araujo, Miguel B" sort="Araujo, Miguel B" uniqKey="Araujo M" first="Miguel B" last="Araújo">Miguel B. Araújo</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="aff8"><institution>Museo Nacional de Ciencias Naturales, CSIC</institution><addr-line>28006 Madrid, Spain</addr-line></nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Rebelo, Tony G" sort="Rebelo, Tony G" uniqKey="Rebelo T" first="Tony G" last="Rebelo">Tony G. Rebelo</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="aff4"><institution>South African National Biodiversity Institute</institution><addr-line>7735 Cape Town, Republic of South Africa</addr-line></nlm:aff></affiliation></author></titleStmt><publicationStmt><idno type="wicri:source">PMC</idno><idno type="pmid">18664424</idno><idno type="pmc">2610061</idno><idno type="url">http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2610061</idno><idno type="RBID">PMC:2610061</idno><idno type="doi">10.1098/rsbl.2008.0049</idno><date when="2008">2008</date><idno type="wicri:Area/Pmc/Corpus">001373</idno><idno type="wicri:explorRef" wicri:stream="Pmc" wicri:step="Corpus" wicri:corpus="PMC">001373</idno></publicationStmt><sourceDesc><biblStruct><analytic><title xml:lang="en" level="a" type="main">Predicting extinction risks under climate change: coupling stochastic population models with dynamic bioclimatic habitat models</title><author><name sortKey="Keith, David A" sort="Keith, David A" uniqKey="Keith D" first="David A" last="Keith">David A. Keith</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="aff1"><institution>NSW Department of Environment and Climate Change</institution><addr-line>PO Box 1967, Hurstville, NSW 2220, Australia</addr-line></nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Akcakaya, H Resit" sort="Akcakaya, H Resit" uniqKey="Akcakaya H" first="H. Resit" last="Akçakaya">H. Resit Akçakaya</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="aff2"><institution>Department of Ecology and Evolution, Stony Brook University</institution><addr-line>Stony Brook, NY 11794-5245, USA</addr-line></nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Thuiller, Wilfried" sort="Thuiller, Wilfried" uniqKey="Thuiller W" first="Wilfried" last="Thuiller">Wilfried Thuiller</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="aff3"><institution>Laboratoire d'Ecologie Alpine, UMR-CNRS 5553</institution><addr-line>38041 Grenoble, France</addr-line></nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Midgley, Guy F" sort="Midgley, Guy F" uniqKey="Midgley G" first="Guy F" last="Midgley">Guy F. Midgley</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="aff4"><institution>South African National Biodiversity Institute</institution><addr-line>7735 Cape Town, Republic of South Africa</addr-line></nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Pearson, Richard G" sort="Pearson, Richard G" uniqKey="Pearson R" first="Richard G" last="Pearson">Richard G. Pearson</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="aff5"><institution>American Museum of Natural History</institution><addr-line>New York, NY 10024, USA</addr-line></nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Phillips, Steven J" sort="Phillips, Steven J" uniqKey="Phillips S" first="Steven J" last="Phillips">Steven J. Phillips</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="aff6"><institution>AT&T Labs Research</institution><addr-line>Florham Park, NJ 07932, USA</addr-line></nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Regan, Helen M" sort="Regan, Helen M" uniqKey="Regan H" first="Helen M" last="Regan">Helen M. Regan</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="aff7"><institution>University of California</institution><addr-line>Riverside, CA 92521, USA</addr-line></nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Araujo, Miguel B" sort="Araujo, Miguel B" uniqKey="Araujo M" first="Miguel B" last="Araújo">Miguel B. Araújo</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="aff8"><institution>Museo Nacional de Ciencias Naturales, CSIC</institution><addr-line>28006 Madrid, Spain</addr-line></nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Rebelo, Tony G" sort="Rebelo, Tony G" uniqKey="Rebelo T" first="Tony G" last="Rebelo">Tony G. Rebelo</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="aff4"><institution>South African National Biodiversity Institute</institution><addr-line>7735 Cape Town, Republic of South Africa</addr-line></nlm:aff></affiliation></author></analytic><series><title level="j">Biology Letters</title><idno type="ISSN">1744-9561</idno><idno type="eISSN">1744-957X</idno><imprint><date when="2008">2008</date></imprint></series></biblStruct></sourceDesc></fileDesc><profileDesc><textClass></textClass></profileDesc></teiHeader><front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en"><p>Species responses to climate change may be influenced by changes in available habitat, as well as population processes, species interactions and interactions between demographic and landscape dynamics. Current methods for assessing these responses fail to provide an integrated view of these influences because they deal with habitat change or population dynamics, but rarely both. In this study, we linked a time series of habitat suitability models with spatially explicit stochastic population models to explore factors that influence the viability of plant species populations under stable and changing climate scenarios in South African fynbos, a global biodiversity hot spot. Results indicate that complex interactions between life history, disturbance regime and distribution pattern mediate species extinction risks under climate change. Our novel mechanistic approach allows more complete and direct appraisal of future biotic responses than do static bioclimatic habitat modelling approaches, and will ultimately support development of more effective conservation strategies to mitigate biodiversity losses due to climate change.</p></div></front></TEI><pmc article-type="research-article" xml:lang="EN"><pmc-comment>The publisher of this article does not allow downloading of the full text in XML form.</pmc-comment>
<front><journal-meta><journal-id journal-id-type="nlm-ta">Biol Lett</journal-id><journal-id journal-id-type="publisher-id">RSBL</journal-id><journal-title>Biology Letters</journal-title><issn pub-type="ppub">1744-9561</issn><issn pub-type="epub">1744-957X</issn><publisher><publisher-name>The Royal Society</publisher-name><publisher-loc>London</publisher-loc></publisher></journal-meta><article-meta><article-id pub-id-type="pmid">18664424</article-id><article-id pub-id-type="pmc">2610061</article-id><article-id pub-id-type="publisher-id">rsbl20080049</article-id><article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.1098/rsbl.2008.0049</article-id><article-categories><subj-group subj-group-type="heading"><subject>Research Article</subject></subj-group></article-categories><title-group><article-title>Predicting extinction risks under climate change: coupling stochastic population models with dynamic bioclimatic habitat models</article-title></title-group><contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Keith</surname><given-names>David A</given-names></name><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">1</xref><xref ref-type="corresp" rid="cor1">*</xref></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Akçakaya</surname><given-names>H. Resit</given-names></name><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">2</xref></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Thuiller</surname><given-names>Wilfried</given-names></name><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff3">3</xref></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Midgley</surname><given-names>Guy F</given-names></name><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff4">4</xref></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Pearson</surname><given-names>Richard G</given-names></name><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff5">5</xref></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Phillips</surname><given-names>Steven J</given-names></name><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff6">6</xref></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Regan</surname><given-names>Helen M</given-names></name><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff7">7</xref></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Araújo</surname><given-names>Miguel B</given-names></name><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff8">8</xref></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Rebelo</surname><given-names>Tony G</given-names></name><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff4">4</xref></contrib></contrib-group><aff id="aff1"><label>1</label><institution>NSW Department of Environment and Climate Change</institution><addr-line>PO Box 1967, Hurstville, NSW 2220, Australia</addr-line></aff><aff id="aff2"><label>2</label><institution>Department of Ecology and Evolution, Stony Brook University</institution><addr-line>Stony Brook, NY 11794-5245, USA</addr-line></aff><aff id="aff3"><label>3</label><institution>Laboratoire d'Ecologie Alpine, UMR-CNRS 5553</institution><addr-line>38041 Grenoble, France</addr-line></aff><aff id="aff4"><label>4</label><institution>South African National Biodiversity Institute</institution><addr-line>7735 Cape Town, Republic of South Africa</addr-line></aff><aff id="aff5"><label>5</label><institution>American Museum of Natural History</institution><addr-line>New York, NY 10024, USA</addr-line></aff><aff id="aff6"><label>6</label><institution>AT&T Labs Research</institution><addr-line>Florham Park, NJ 07932, USA</addr-line></aff><aff id="aff7"><label>7</label><institution>University of California</institution><addr-line>Riverside, CA 92521, USA</addr-line></aff><aff id="aff8"><label>8</label><institution>Museo Nacional de Ciencias Naturales, CSIC</institution><addr-line>28006 Madrid, Spain</addr-line></aff><author-notes><corresp id="cor1"><label>*</label>Author for correspondence (<email>david.keith@environment.nsw.gov.au</email>)</corresp></author-notes><pub-date pub-type="epub"><day>29</day><month>7</month><year>2008</year></pub-date><pub-date pub-type="ppub"><day>23</day><month>10</month><year>2008</year></pub-date><volume>4</volume><issue>5</issue><fpage>560</fpage><lpage>563</lpage><history><date date-type="received"><day>1</day><month>2</month><year>2008</year></date><date date-type="rev-recd"><day>18</day><month>3</month><year>2008</year></date><date date-type="accepted"><day>25</day><month>3</month><year>2008</year></date></history><permissions><copyright-statement>© 2008 The Royal Society</copyright-statement><copyright-year>2008</copyright-year></permissions><abstract xml:lang="EN"><p>Species responses to climate change may be influenced by changes in available habitat, as well as population processes, species interactions and interactions between demographic and landscape dynamics. Current methods for assessing these responses fail to provide an integrated view of these influences because they deal with habitat change or population dynamics, but rarely both. In this study, we linked a time series of habitat suitability models with spatially explicit stochastic population models to explore factors that influence the viability of plant species populations under stable and changing climate scenarios in South African fynbos, a global biodiversity hot spot. Results indicate that complex interactions between life history, disturbance regime and distribution pattern mediate species extinction risks under climate change. Our novel mechanistic approach allows more complete and direct appraisal of future biotic responses than do static bioclimatic habitat modelling approaches, and will ultimately support development of more effective conservation strategies to mitigate biodiversity losses due to climate change.</p></abstract><kwd-group><kwd>population viability analysis</kwd><kwd>bioclimatic envelope</kwd><kwd>niche model</kwd><kwd>uncertainty</kwd><kwd>fynbos</kwd><kwd>fire</kwd></kwd-group></article-meta></front><floats-wrap><fig id="fig1" position="float"><label>Figure 1</label><caption><p>Coupling of dynamic HS models with a stochastic population model. Each simulation commences with step 1. After the first iteration is completed at step 5, second and subsequent iterations commence with step 6 in lieu of step 1.</p></caption><graphic xlink:href="rsbl20080049f01"></graphic></fig><fig id="fig2" position="float"><label>Figure 2</label><caption><p>Variation in population viability (EMA) for stable climate (open bars) and changing climate (closed bars) scenarios during 2000–2050. Error bars are 95% CIs across 1000 simulations. Modelled scenarios for three patterns of distribution change (A, widespread contracting; B, restricted contracting at margins and increasing suitability in core; C, restricted shifting and fragmenting), two life-history types (obligate seeder, resprouter), three modes of seed dispersal ((<italic>a</italic>,<italic>c</italic>,<italic>g</italic>,<italic>i</italic>,<italic>m</italic>,<italic>o</italic>) wind (long); (<italic>b</italic>,<italic>d</italic>,<italic>h</italic>,<italic>j</italic>,<italic>n</italic>,<italic>p</italic>) wind (short); and (<italic>e</italic>,<italic>f</italic>,<italic>k</italic>,<italic>l</italic>,<italic>q</italic>,<italic>r</italic>) ant), two types of DD (DD even, DD uneven across stages), two types of carrying capacity (HS and HA, HA only) and two fire regimes (mean fire intervals of 8 and 14 years).</p></caption><graphic xlink:href="rsbl20080049f02"></graphic></fig></floats-wrap></pmc></record>Pour manipuler ce document sous Unix (Dilib)
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