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<record><TEI><teiHeader><fileDesc><titleStmt><title xml:lang="en">Modelling marine protected areas: insights and hurdles</title><author><name sortKey="Fulton, Elizabeth A" sort="Fulton, Elizabeth A" uniqKey="Fulton E" first="Elizabeth A." last="Fulton">Elizabeth A. Fulton</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="af1"><institution>CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere</institution>,<addr-line>GPO Box 1538, Hobart, Tasmania 7001</addr-line>,<country>Australia</country></nlm:aff></affiliation><affiliation><nlm:aff id="af3"><addr-line>Centre for Marine Socioecology</addr-line>,<institution>University of Tasmania</institution>,<addr-line>20 Castray Esplanade, Battery Point, Tasmania 7004</addr-line>,<country>Australia</country></nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Bax, Nicholas J" sort="Bax, Nicholas J" uniqKey="Bax N" first="Nicholas J." last="Bax">Nicholas J. Bax</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="af1"><institution>CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere</institution>,<addr-line>GPO Box 1538, Hobart, Tasmania 7001</addr-line>,<country>Australia</country></nlm:aff></affiliation><affiliation><nlm:aff id="af4"><addr-line>Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies</addr-line>,<institution>University of Tasmania</institution>,<addr-line>20 Castray Esplanade, Battery Point, Tasmania 7004</addr-line>,<country>Australia</country></nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Bustamante, Rodrigo H" sort="Bustamante, Rodrigo H" uniqKey="Bustamante R" first="Rodrigo H." last="Bustamante">Rodrigo H. Bustamante</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="af5"><institution>CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere</institution>,<addr-line>PO Box 2583, Brisbane, Queensland 4001</addr-line>,<country>Australia</country></nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Dambacher, Jeffrey M" sort="Dambacher, Jeffrey M" uniqKey="Dambacher J" first="Jeffrey M." last="Dambacher">Jeffrey M. Dambacher</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="af2"><institution>CSIRO Digital Productivity</institution>,<addr-line>GPO Box 1538, Hobart, Tasmania 7001</addr-line>,<country>Australia</country></nlm:aff></affiliation><affiliation><nlm:aff id="af3"><addr-line>Centre for Marine Socioecology</addr-line>,<institution>University of Tasmania</institution>,<addr-line>20 Castray Esplanade, Battery Point, Tasmania 7004</addr-line>,<country>Australia</country></nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Dichmont, Catherine" sort="Dichmont, Catherine" uniqKey="Dichmont C" first="Catherine" last="Dichmont">Catherine Dichmont</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="af5"><institution>CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere</institution>,<addr-line>PO Box 2583, Brisbane, Queensland 4001</addr-line>,<country>Australia</country></nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Dunstan, Piers K" sort="Dunstan, Piers K" uniqKey="Dunstan P" first="Piers K." last="Dunstan">Piers K. Dunstan</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="af1"><institution>CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere</institution>,<addr-line>GPO Box 1538, Hobart, Tasmania 7001</addr-line>,<country>Australia</country></nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Hayes, Keith R" sort="Hayes, Keith R" uniqKey="Hayes K" first="Keith R." last="Hayes">Keith R. Hayes</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="af2"><institution>CSIRO Digital Productivity</institution>,<addr-line>GPO Box 1538, Hobart, Tasmania 7001</addr-line>,<country>Australia</country></nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Hobday, Alistair J" sort="Hobday, Alistair J" uniqKey="Hobday A" first="Alistair J." last="Hobday">Alistair J. Hobday</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="af1"><institution>CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere</institution>,<addr-line>GPO Box 1538, Hobart, Tasmania 7001</addr-line>,<country>Australia</country></nlm:aff></affiliation><affiliation><nlm:aff id="af3"><addr-line>Centre for Marine Socioecology</addr-line>,<institution>University of Tasmania</institution>,<addr-line>20 Castray Esplanade, Battery Point, Tasmania 7004</addr-line>,<country>Australia</country></nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Pitcher, Roland" sort="Pitcher, Roland" uniqKey="Pitcher R" first="Roland" last="Pitcher">Roland Pitcher</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="af5"><institution>CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere</institution>,<addr-line>PO Box 2583, Brisbane, Queensland 4001</addr-line>,<country>Australia</country></nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Plaganyi, Eva E" sort="Plaganyi, Eva E" uniqKey="Plaganyi E" first="Éva E." last="Plagányi">Éva E. Plagányi</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="af5"><institution>CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere</institution>,<addr-line>PO Box 2583, Brisbane, Queensland 4001</addr-line>,<country>Australia</country></nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Punt, Andre E" sort="Punt, Andre E" uniqKey="Punt A" first="André E." last="Punt">André E. Punt</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="af1"><institution>CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere</institution>,<addr-line>GPO Box 1538, Hobart, Tasmania 7001</addr-line>,<country>Australia</country></nlm:aff></affiliation><affiliation><nlm:aff id="af6"><addr-line>School of Aquatic and Fishery Sciences</addr-line>,<institution>University of Washington</institution>,<addr-line>Box 355020, Seattle, WA 98195-5020</addr-line>,<country>USA</country></nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Savina Rolland, Marie" sort="Savina Rolland, Marie" uniqKey="Savina Rolland M" first="Marie" last="Savina-Rolland">Marie Savina-Rolland</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="af7"><addr-line>Laboratoire Ressources Halieutiques</addr-line>,<institution>Centre Manche - Mer du Nord</institution>,<addr-line>150, quai Gambetta, BP 699, 62321 Boulogne sur Mer Cedex</addr-line>,<country>France</country></nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Smith, Anthony D M" sort="Smith, Anthony D M" uniqKey="Smith A" first="Anthony D. M." last="Smith">Anthony D. M. Smith</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="af1"><institution>CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere</institution>,<addr-line>GPO Box 1538, Hobart, Tasmania 7001</addr-line>,<country>Australia</country></nlm:aff></affiliation><affiliation><nlm:aff id="af3"><addr-line>Centre for Marine Socioecology</addr-line>,<institution>University of Tasmania</institution>,<addr-line>20 Castray Esplanade, Battery Point, Tasmania 7004</addr-line>,<country>Australia</country></nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Smith, David C" sort="Smith, David C" uniqKey="Smith D" first="David C." last="Smith">David C. Smith</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="af1"><institution>CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere</institution>,<addr-line>GPO Box 1538, Hobart, Tasmania 7001</addr-line>,<country>Australia</country></nlm:aff></affiliation><affiliation><nlm:aff id="af3"><addr-line>Centre for Marine Socioecology</addr-line>,<institution>University of Tasmania</institution>,<addr-line>20 Castray Esplanade, Battery Point, Tasmania 7004</addr-line>,<country>Australia</country></nlm:aff></affiliation></author></titleStmt><publicationStmt><idno type="wicri:source">PMC</idno><idno type="pmid">26460131</idno><idno type="pmc">4614735</idno><idno type="url">http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4614735</idno><idno type="RBID">PMC:4614735</idno><idno type="doi">10.1098/rstb.2014.0278</idno><date when="2015">2015</date><idno type="wicri:Area/Pmc/Corpus">000396</idno><idno type="wicri:explorRef" wicri:stream="Pmc" wicri:step="Corpus" wicri:corpus="PMC">000396</idno></publicationStmt><sourceDesc><biblStruct><analytic><title xml:lang="en" level="a" type="main">Modelling marine protected areas: insights and hurdles</title><author><name sortKey="Fulton, Elizabeth A" sort="Fulton, Elizabeth A" uniqKey="Fulton E" first="Elizabeth A." last="Fulton">Elizabeth A. Fulton</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="af1"><institution>CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere</institution>,<addr-line>GPO Box 1538, Hobart, Tasmania 7001</addr-line>,<country>Australia</country></nlm:aff></affiliation><affiliation><nlm:aff id="af3"><addr-line>Centre for Marine Socioecology</addr-line>,<institution>University of Tasmania</institution>,<addr-line>20 Castray Esplanade, Battery Point, Tasmania 7004</addr-line>,<country>Australia</country></nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Bax, Nicholas J" sort="Bax, Nicholas J" uniqKey="Bax N" first="Nicholas J." last="Bax">Nicholas J. Bax</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="af1"><institution>CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere</institution>,<addr-line>GPO Box 1538, Hobart, Tasmania 7001</addr-line>,<country>Australia</country></nlm:aff></affiliation><affiliation><nlm:aff id="af4"><addr-line>Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies</addr-line>,<institution>University of Tasmania</institution>,<addr-line>20 Castray Esplanade, Battery Point, Tasmania 7004</addr-line>,<country>Australia</country></nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Bustamante, Rodrigo H" sort="Bustamante, Rodrigo H" uniqKey="Bustamante R" first="Rodrigo H." last="Bustamante">Rodrigo H. Bustamante</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="af5"><institution>CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere</institution>,<addr-line>PO Box 2583, Brisbane, Queensland 4001</addr-line>,<country>Australia</country></nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Dambacher, Jeffrey M" sort="Dambacher, Jeffrey M" uniqKey="Dambacher J" first="Jeffrey M." last="Dambacher">Jeffrey M. Dambacher</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="af2"><institution>CSIRO Digital Productivity</institution>,<addr-line>GPO Box 1538, Hobart, Tasmania 7001</addr-line>,<country>Australia</country></nlm:aff></affiliation><affiliation><nlm:aff id="af3"><addr-line>Centre for Marine Socioecology</addr-line>,<institution>University of Tasmania</institution>,<addr-line>20 Castray Esplanade, Battery Point, Tasmania 7004</addr-line>,<country>Australia</country></nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Dichmont, Catherine" sort="Dichmont, Catherine" uniqKey="Dichmont C" first="Catherine" last="Dichmont">Catherine Dichmont</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="af5"><institution>CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere</institution>,<addr-line>PO Box 2583, Brisbane, Queensland 4001</addr-line>,<country>Australia</country></nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Dunstan, Piers K" sort="Dunstan, Piers K" uniqKey="Dunstan P" first="Piers K." last="Dunstan">Piers K. Dunstan</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="af1"><institution>CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere</institution>,<addr-line>GPO Box 1538, Hobart, Tasmania 7001</addr-line>,<country>Australia</country></nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Hayes, Keith R" sort="Hayes, Keith R" uniqKey="Hayes K" first="Keith R." last="Hayes">Keith R. Hayes</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="af2"><institution>CSIRO Digital Productivity</institution>,<addr-line>GPO Box 1538, Hobart, Tasmania 7001</addr-line>,<country>Australia</country></nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Hobday, Alistair J" sort="Hobday, Alistair J" uniqKey="Hobday A" first="Alistair J." last="Hobday">Alistair J. Hobday</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="af1"><institution>CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere</institution>,<addr-line>GPO Box 1538, Hobart, Tasmania 7001</addr-line>,<country>Australia</country></nlm:aff></affiliation><affiliation><nlm:aff id="af3"><addr-line>Centre for Marine Socioecology</addr-line>,<institution>University of Tasmania</institution>,<addr-line>20 Castray Esplanade, Battery Point, Tasmania 7004</addr-line>,<country>Australia</country></nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Pitcher, Roland" sort="Pitcher, Roland" uniqKey="Pitcher R" first="Roland" last="Pitcher">Roland Pitcher</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="af5"><institution>CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere</institution>,<addr-line>PO Box 2583, Brisbane, Queensland 4001</addr-line>,<country>Australia</country></nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Plaganyi, Eva E" sort="Plaganyi, Eva E" uniqKey="Plaganyi E" first="Éva E." last="Plagányi">Éva E. Plagányi</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="af5"><institution>CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere</institution>,<addr-line>PO Box 2583, Brisbane, Queensland 4001</addr-line>,<country>Australia</country></nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Punt, Andre E" sort="Punt, Andre E" uniqKey="Punt A" first="André E." last="Punt">André E. Punt</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="af1"><institution>CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere</institution>,<addr-line>GPO Box 1538, Hobart, Tasmania 7001</addr-line>,<country>Australia</country></nlm:aff></affiliation><affiliation><nlm:aff id="af6"><addr-line>School of Aquatic and Fishery Sciences</addr-line>,<institution>University of Washington</institution>,<addr-line>Box 355020, Seattle, WA 98195-5020</addr-line>,<country>USA</country></nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Savina Rolland, Marie" sort="Savina Rolland, Marie" uniqKey="Savina Rolland M" first="Marie" last="Savina-Rolland">Marie Savina-Rolland</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="af7"><addr-line>Laboratoire Ressources Halieutiques</addr-line>,<institution>Centre Manche - Mer du Nord</institution>,<addr-line>150, quai Gambetta, BP 699, 62321 Boulogne sur Mer Cedex</addr-line>,<country>France</country></nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Smith, Anthony D M" sort="Smith, Anthony D M" uniqKey="Smith A" first="Anthony D. M." last="Smith">Anthony D. M. Smith</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="af1"><institution>CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere</institution>,<addr-line>GPO Box 1538, Hobart, Tasmania 7001</addr-line>,<country>Australia</country></nlm:aff></affiliation><affiliation><nlm:aff id="af3"><addr-line>Centre for Marine Socioecology</addr-line>,<institution>University of Tasmania</institution>,<addr-line>20 Castray Esplanade, Battery Point, Tasmania 7004</addr-line>,<country>Australia</country></nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Smith, David C" sort="Smith, David C" uniqKey="Smith D" first="David C." last="Smith">David C. Smith</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="af1"><institution>CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere</institution>,<addr-line>GPO Box 1538, Hobart, Tasmania 7001</addr-line>,<country>Australia</country></nlm:aff></affiliation><affiliation><nlm:aff id="af3"><addr-line>Centre for Marine Socioecology</addr-line>,<institution>University of Tasmania</institution>,<addr-line>20 Castray Esplanade, Battery Point, Tasmania 7004</addr-line>,<country>Australia</country></nlm:aff></affiliation></author></analytic><series><title level="j">Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences</title><idno type="ISSN">0962-8436</idno><idno type="eISSN">1471-2970</idno><imprint><date when="2015">2015</date></imprint></series></biblStruct></sourceDesc></fileDesc><profileDesc><textClass></textClass></profileDesc></teiHeader><front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en"><p>Models provide useful insights into conservation and resource management issues and solutions. Their use to date has highlighted conditions under which no-take marine protected areas (MPAs) may help us to achieve the goals of ecosystem-based management by reducing pressures, and where they might fail to achieve desired goals. For example, static reserve designs are unlikely to achieve desired objectives when applied to mobile species or when compromised by climate-related ecosystem restructuring and range shifts. Modelling tools allow planners to explore a range of options, such as basing MPAs on the presence of dynamic oceanic features, and to evaluate the potential future impacts of alternative interventions compared with ‘no-action’ counterfactuals, under a range of environmental and development scenarios. The modelling environment allows the analyst to test if indicators and management strategies are robust to uncertainties in how the ecosystem (and the broader human–ecosystem combination) operates, including the direct and indirect ecological effects of protection. Moreover, modelling results can be presented at multiple spatial and temporal scales, and relative to ecological, economic and social objectives. This helps to reveal potential ‘surprises', such as regime shifts, trophic cascades and bottlenecks in human responses. Using illustrative examples, this paper briefly covers the history of the use of simulation models for evaluating MPA options, and discusses their utility and limitations for informing protected area management in the marine realm.</p></div></front></TEI><pmc article-type="review-article"><pmc-comment>The publisher of this article does not allow downloading of the full text in XML form.</pmc-comment>
<front><journal-meta><journal-id journal-id-type="nlm-ta">Philos Trans R Soc Lond B Biol Sci</journal-id><journal-id journal-id-type="iso-abbrev">Philos. Trans. R. Soc. Lond., B, Biol. Sci</journal-id><journal-id journal-id-type="publisher-id">RSTB</journal-id><journal-id journal-id-type="hwp">royptb</journal-id><journal-title-group><journal-title>Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences</journal-title></journal-title-group><issn pub-type="ppub">0962-8436</issn><issn pub-type="epub">1471-2970</issn><publisher><publisher-name>The Royal Society</publisher-name></publisher></journal-meta><article-meta><article-id pub-id-type="pmid">26460131</article-id><article-id pub-id-type="pmc">4614735</article-id><article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.1098/rstb.2014.0278</article-id><article-id pub-id-type="publisher-id">rstb20140278</article-id><article-categories><subj-group subj-group-type="hwp-journal-coll"><subject>1001</subject><subject>69</subject></subj-group><subj-group subj-group-type="heading"><subject>Articles</subject></subj-group><subj-group subj-group-type="leader"><subject>Review Article</subject></subj-group></article-categories><title-group><article-title>Modelling marine protected areas: insights and hurdles</article-title><alt-title alt-title-type="short">Modelling MPAs: Insights and Hurdles</alt-title></title-group><contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Fulton</surname><given-names>Elizabeth A.</given-names></name><xref ref-type="aff" rid="af1">1</xref><xref ref-type="aff" rid="af3">3</xref><xref ref-type="corresp" rid="cor1"></xref></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Bax</surname><given-names>Nicholas J.</given-names></name><xref ref-type="aff" rid="af1">1</xref><xref ref-type="aff" rid="af4">4</xref></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Bustamante</surname><given-names>Rodrigo H.</given-names></name><xref ref-type="aff" rid="af5">5</xref></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Dambacher</surname><given-names>Jeffrey M.</given-names></name><xref ref-type="aff" rid="af2">2</xref><xref ref-type="aff" rid="af3">3</xref></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Dichmont</surname><given-names>Catherine</given-names></name><xref ref-type="aff" rid="af5">5</xref></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Dunstan</surname><given-names>Piers K.</given-names></name><xref ref-type="aff" rid="af1">1</xref></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Hayes</surname><given-names>Keith R.</given-names></name><xref ref-type="aff" rid="af2">2</xref></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Hobday</surname><given-names>Alistair J.</given-names></name><xref ref-type="aff" rid="af1">1</xref><xref ref-type="aff" rid="af3">3</xref></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Pitcher</surname><given-names>Roland</given-names></name><xref ref-type="aff" rid="af5">5</xref></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Plagányi</surname><given-names>Éva E.</given-names></name><xref ref-type="aff" rid="af5">5</xref></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Punt</surname><given-names>André E.</given-names></name><xref ref-type="aff" rid="af1">1</xref><xref ref-type="aff" rid="af6">6</xref></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Savina-Rolland</surname><given-names>Marie</given-names></name><xref ref-type="aff" rid="af7">7</xref></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Smith</surname><given-names>Anthony D. M.</given-names></name><xref ref-type="aff" rid="af1">1</xref><xref ref-type="aff" rid="af3">3</xref></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Smith</surname><given-names>David C.</given-names></name><xref ref-type="aff" rid="af1">1</xref><xref ref-type="aff" rid="af3">3</xref></contrib></contrib-group><aff id="af1"><label>1</label><institution>CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere</institution>,<addr-line>GPO Box 1538, Hobart, Tasmania 7001</addr-line>,<country>Australia</country></aff><aff id="af2"><label>2</label><institution>CSIRO Digital Productivity</institution>,<addr-line>GPO Box 1538, Hobart, Tasmania 7001</addr-line>,<country>Australia</country></aff><aff id="af3"><label>3</label><addr-line>Centre for Marine Socioecology</addr-line>,<institution>University of Tasmania</institution>,<addr-line>20 Castray Esplanade, Battery Point, Tasmania 7004</addr-line>,<country>Australia</country></aff><aff id="af4"><label>4</label><addr-line>Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies</addr-line>,<institution>University of Tasmania</institution>,<addr-line>20 Castray Esplanade, Battery Point, Tasmania 7004</addr-line>,<country>Australia</country></aff><aff id="af5"><label>5</label><institution>CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere</institution>,<addr-line>PO Box 2583, Brisbane, Queensland 4001</addr-line>,<country>Australia</country></aff><aff id="af6"><label>6</label><addr-line>School of Aquatic and Fishery Sciences</addr-line>,<institution>University of Washington</institution>,<addr-line>Box 355020, Seattle, WA 98195-5020</addr-line>,<country>USA</country></aff><aff id="af7"><label>7</label><addr-line>Laboratoire Ressources Halieutiques</addr-line>,<institution>Centre Manche - Mer du Nord</institution>,<addr-line>150, quai Gambetta, BP 699, 62321 Boulogne sur Mer Cedex</addr-line>,<country>France</country></aff><author-notes><corresp id="cor1">e-mail: <email>beth.fulton@csiro.au</email></corresp><fn fn-type="other"><p>One contribution of 16 to a theme issue ‘<ext-link ext-link-type="uri" xlink:href="http://rstb.royalsocietypublishing.org/content/370/1681.toc">Measuring the difference made by protected areas: methods, applications and implications for policy and practice</ext-link>’.</p></fn></author-notes><pub-date pub-type="ppub"><day>5</day><month>11</month><year>2015</year></pub-date><volume>370</volume><issue>1681</issue><issue-title>Theme issue ‘Measuring the difference made by protected areas: methods, applications and implications for policy and practice’ compiled and edited by Robert L. Pressey and Paul J. Ferraro</issue-title><elocation-id>20140278</elocation-id><history><date date-type="accepted"><day>13</day><month>8</month><year>2015</year></date></history><permissions><copyright-statement>© 2015 The Author(s)</copyright-statement><copyright-year>2015</copyright-year><license specific-use="vor" xlink:href="http://royalsocietypublishing.org/licence"><license-p>Published by the Royal Society. All rights reserved.</license-p></license></permissions><self-uri content-type="pdf" xlink:href="rstb20140278.pdf"></self-uri><abstract><p>Models provide useful insights into conservation and resource management issues and solutions. Their use to date has highlighted conditions under which no-take marine protected areas (MPAs) may help us to achieve the goals of ecosystem-based management by reducing pressures, and where they might fail to achieve desired goals. For example, static reserve designs are unlikely to achieve desired objectives when applied to mobile species or when compromised by climate-related ecosystem restructuring and range shifts. Modelling tools allow planners to explore a range of options, such as basing MPAs on the presence of dynamic oceanic features, and to evaluate the potential future impacts of alternative interventions compared with ‘no-action’ counterfactuals, under a range of environmental and development scenarios. The modelling environment allows the analyst to test if indicators and management strategies are robust to uncertainties in how the ecosystem (and the broader human–ecosystem combination) operates, including the direct and indirect ecological effects of protection. Moreover, modelling results can be presented at multiple spatial and temporal scales, and relative to ecological, economic and social objectives. This helps to reveal potential ‘surprises', such as regime shifts, trophic cascades and bottlenecks in human responses. Using illustrative examples, this paper briefly covers the history of the use of simulation models for evaluating MPA options, and discusses their utility and limitations for informing protected area management in the marine realm.</p></abstract><kwd-group><kwd>spatial management</kwd><kwd>modelling</kwd><kwd>MPA</kwd><kwd>counterfactual</kwd></kwd-group><funding-group><award-group id="funding-1"><funding-source>Australia's National Environmental Research Program, Marine Biodiversity Hub</funding-source></award-group></funding-group><funding-group><award-group id="funding-2"><funding-source>New South Wales Department of Primary Industries</funding-source></award-group></funding-group><funding-group><award-group id="funding-3"><funding-source>Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation<named-content content-type="funder-id">http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100000943</named-content></funding-source></award-group></funding-group><funding-group><award-group id="funding-4"><funding-source>Fisheries Research and Development Corporation<named-content content-type="funder-id">http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100000979</named-content></funding-source></award-group></funding-group><custom-meta-group><custom-meta><meta-name>cover-date</meta-name><meta-value>November 5, 2015</meta-value></custom-meta></custom-meta-group></article-meta></front></pmc></record>Pour manipuler ce document sous Unix (Dilib)
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|flux= Pmc
|étape= Corpus
|type= RBID
|clé=
|texte=
}}
| This area was generated with Dilib version V0.6.33. |  |