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Using Benford’s law to investigate Natural Hazard dataset homogeneity

Identifieur interne : 000C51 ( Pmc/Checkpoint ); précédent : 000C50; suivant : 000C52

Using Benford’s law to investigate Natural Hazard dataset homogeneity

Auteurs : Renaud Joannes-Boyau [Australie] ; Thomas Bodin [États-Unis, France] ; Anja Scheffers [Australie] ; Malcolm Sambridge [Australie] ; Simon Matthias May [Allemagne]

Source :

RBID : PMC:4496784

Abstract

Working with a large temporal dataset spanning several decades often represents a challenging task, especially when the record is heterogeneous and incomplete. The use of statistical laws could potentially overcome these problems. Here we apply Benford’s Law (also called the “First-Digit Law”) to the traveled distances of tropical cyclones since 1842. The record of tropical cyclones has been extensively impacted by improvements in detection capabilities over the past decades. We have found that, while the first-digit distribution for the entire record follows Benford’s Law prediction, specific changes such as satellite detection have had serious impacts on the dataset. The least-square misfit measure is used as a proxy to observe temporal variations, allowing us to assess data quality and homogeneity over the entire record, and at the same time over specific periods. Such information is crucial when running climatic models and Benford’s Law could potentially be used to overcome and correct for data heterogeneity and/or to select the most appropriate part of the record for detailed studies.


Url:
DOI: 10.1038/srep12046
PubMed: 26156060
PubMed Central: 4496784


Affiliations:


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PMC:4496784

Le document en format XML

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<aff id="a5">
<label>5</label>
<institution>Laboratoire de Géologie de Lyon, Ecole Normale Supérieure de Lyon, Université de Lyon-1, CNRS</institution>
, 69364 Lyon Cedex 07,
<country>France</country>
</aff>
</contrib-group>
<author-notes>
<corresp id="c1">
<label>a</label>
<email>renaud.joannes-boyau@scu.edu.au</email>
</corresp>
<fn id="n1">
<label>*</label>
<p>These authors contributed equally to this work.</p>
</fn>
</author-notes>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>09</day>
<month>07</month>
<year>2015</year>
</pub-date>
<pub-date pub-type="collection">
<year>2015</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>5</volume>
<elocation-id>12046</elocation-id>
<history>
<date date-type="received">
<day>29</day>
<month>09</month>
<year>2014</year>
</date>
<date date-type="accepted">
<day>15</day>
<month>06</month>
<year>2015</year>
</date>
</history>
<permissions>
<copyright-statement>Copyright © 2015, Macmillan Publishers Limited</copyright-statement>
<copyright-year>2015</copyright-year>
<copyright-holder>Macmillan Publishers Limited</copyright-holder>
<license license-type="open-access" xlink:href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">
<pmc-comment>author-paid</pmc-comment>
<license-p>This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in the credit line; if the material is not included under the Creative Commons license, users will need to obtain permission from the license holder to reproduce the material. To view a copy of this license, visit
<ext-link ext-link-type="uri" xlink:href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/</ext-link>
</license-p>
</license>
</permissions>
<abstract>
<p>Working with a large temporal dataset spanning several decades often represents a challenging task, especially when the record is heterogeneous and incomplete. The use of statistical laws could potentially overcome these problems. Here we apply Benford’s Law (also called the “First-Digit Law”) to the traveled distances of tropical cyclones since 1842. The record of tropical cyclones has been extensively impacted by improvements in detection capabilities over the past decades. We have found that, while the first-digit distribution for the entire record follows Benford’s Law prediction, specific changes such as satellite detection have had serious impacts on the dataset. The
<italic>least-square misfit measure</italic>
is used as a proxy to observe temporal variations, allowing us to assess data quality and homogeneity over the entire record, and at the same time over specific periods. Such information is crucial when running climatic models and Benford’s Law could potentially be used to overcome and correct for data heterogeneity and/or to select the most appropriate part of the record for detailed studies.</p>
</abstract>
</article-meta>
</front>
<floats-group>
<fig id="f1">
<label>Figure 1</label>
<caption>
<title>Map of the world TC tracks from International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship (IBTrACS).</title>
<p>(top) from 1931 to present days; (bottom) from 1841 to 1930; TC records prior to 1931 were based on only a single position estimate per day, while at the same time many parts of the globe were poorly sampled (Jarvinen
<italic>et al.</italic>
, 1984). There are no data available prior to 1930 for the western Pacific Ocean along the North and Central American coast, while this region is prone to TC activities, especially due to the direct influence of El Niño/La Niña; (Figure made with ArcGIS
<sup>®</sup>
software and Corel Draw X5).</p>
</caption>
<graphic xlink:href="srep12046-f1"></graphic>
</fig>
<fig id="f2">
<label>Figure 2</label>
<caption>
<title>Distribution of TC travelled distances and frequency since 1842 to present.</title>
<p>The 1930’s represent a significant improvement in the recording and measurements of tropical cyclone occurrences. Tropical cyclone travelled distances (km) from 1841 to 2010; red curve is the 5 years running mean distance (km).</p>
</caption>
<graphic xlink:href="srep12046-f2"></graphic>
</fig>
<fig id="f3">
<label>Figure 3</label>
<caption>
<title>Temporal variations of categories distance travelled by TC.</title>
<p>Frequency of TC occurrences relative to the category of distance traveled: (i) short (<1000 kms), (ii) medium (1000 kms < × < 5000 kms) and (iii) long (>5000 kms) (plain curve correspond to the 5 year running mean (5YRM)).</p>
</caption>
<graphic xlink:href="srep12046-f3"></graphic>
</fig>
<fig id="f4">
<label>Figure 4</label>
<caption>
<title>Relationship between BL first digit theoretical values and the first digit TC track distribution.</title>
<p>Comparison of the distribution of first digit occurrence in the global TC record with the theoretical Benford’s Law estimates.</p>
</caption>
<graphic xlink:href="srep12046-f4"></graphic>
</fig>
<fig id="f5">
<label>Figure 5</label>
<caption>
<title>Calculation of misfit from BL estimate over the entire TC dataset.</title>
<p>The scatter of the data is on itself an indication of the dataset quality and homogeneity. The graphic represent the evaluation of the BL Misfit per individual years (black with empty circles), 5YRM (red) and 10YRM (blue).
<bold>P</bold>
<sub>
<bold>1</bold>
</sub>
and
<bold>P</bold>
<sub>
<bold>2</bold>
</sub>
divide the dataset into two large periods relating to technological improvements. A, B, C and D correspond notable shifts or fluctuations within the BL misfit.</p>
</caption>
<graphic xlink:href="srep12046-f5"></graphic>
</fig>
<table-wrap position="float" id="t1">
<label>Table 1</label>
<caption>
<title>First digit values obtained over the entire TC dataset (Empirical values) against the theoretical values describe by Benford’s law.</title>
</caption>
<table frame="hsides" rules="groups" border="1">
<colgroup>
<col align="left"></col>
<col align="char" char="."></col>
<col align="char" char="."></col>
</colgroup>
<thead valign="bottom">
<tr>
<th align="left" valign="top" charoff="50">First digit</th>
<th align="center" valign="top" char="." charoff="50">Theoretical values %</th>
<th align="center" valign="top" char="." charoff="50">Empirical values %</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody valign="top">
<tr>
<td align="left" valign="top" charoff="50">1</td>
<td align="char" valign="top" char="." charoff="50">30.1</td>
<td align="char" valign="top" char="." charoff="50">29.8</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" valign="top" charoff="50">2</td>
<td align="char" valign="top" char="." charoff="50">17.6</td>
<td align="char" valign="top" char="." charoff="50">18.8</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" valign="top" charoff="50">3</td>
<td align="char" valign="top" char="." charoff="50">12.5</td>
<td align="char" valign="top" char="." charoff="50">13.5</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" valign="top" charoff="50">4</td>
<td align="char" valign="top" char="." charoff="50">9.7</td>
<td align="char" valign="top" char="." charoff="50">9.8</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" valign="top" charoff="50">5</td>
<td align="char" valign="top" char="." charoff="50">7.9</td>
<td align="char" valign="top" char="." charoff="50">7.9</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" valign="top" charoff="50">6</td>
<td align="char" valign="top" char="." charoff="50">6.7</td>
<td align="char" valign="top" char="." charoff="50">6.3</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" valign="top" charoff="50">7</td>
<td align="char" valign="top" char="." charoff="50">5.8</td>
<td align="char" valign="top" char="." charoff="50">5.2</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" valign="top" charoff="50">8</td>
<td align="char" valign="top" char="." charoff="50">5.1</td>
<td align="char" valign="top" char="." charoff="50">4.4</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" valign="top" charoff="50">9</td>
<td align="char" valign="top" char="." charoff="50">4.6</td>
<td align="char" valign="top" char="." charoff="50">4.3</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</table-wrap>
</floats-group>
</pmc>
<affiliations>
<list>
<country>
<li>Allemagne</li>
<li>Australie</li>
<li>France</li>
<li>États-Unis</li>
</country>
</list>
<tree>
<country name="Australie">
<noRegion>
<name sortKey="Joannes Boyau, Renaud" sort="Joannes Boyau, Renaud" uniqKey="Joannes Boyau R" first="Renaud" last="Joannes-Boyau">Renaud Joannes-Boyau</name>
</noRegion>
<name sortKey="Sambridge, Malcolm" sort="Sambridge, Malcolm" uniqKey="Sambridge M" first="Malcolm" last="Sambridge">Malcolm Sambridge</name>
<name sortKey="Scheffers, Anja" sort="Scheffers, Anja" uniqKey="Scheffers A" first="Anja" last="Scheffers">Anja Scheffers</name>
</country>
<country name="États-Unis">
<noRegion>
<name sortKey="Bodin, Thomas" sort="Bodin, Thomas" uniqKey="Bodin T" first="Thomas" last="Bodin">Thomas Bodin</name>
</noRegion>
</country>
<country name="France">
<noRegion>
<name sortKey="Bodin, Thomas" sort="Bodin, Thomas" uniqKey="Bodin T" first="Thomas" last="Bodin">Thomas Bodin</name>
</noRegion>
</country>
<country name="Allemagne">
<noRegion>
<name sortKey="May, Simon Matthias" sort="May, Simon Matthias" uniqKey="May S" first="Simon Matthias" last="May">Simon Matthias May</name>
</noRegion>
</country>
</tree>
</affiliations>
</record>

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