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From projected species distribution to food-web structure under climate change

Identifieur interne : 005928 ( PascalFrancis/Curation ); précédent : 005927; suivant : 005929

From projected species distribution to food-web structure under climate change

Auteurs : Camille Albouy [France, Canada] ; Laure Velez [France] ; Marta Coll [Espagne, Canada] ; Francesco Colloca [Italie] ; François Le Loc'H [France] ; David Mouillot [France, Australie] ; Dominique Gravel [Canada]

Source :

RBID : Pascal:14-0063419

Descripteurs français

English descriptors

Abstract

Climate change is inducing deep modifications in species geographic ranges worldwide. However, the consequences of such changes on community structure are still poorly understood, particularly the impacts on food-web properties. Here, we propose a new framework, coupling species distribution and trophic models, to predict climate change impacts on food-web structure across the Mediterranean Sea. Sea surface temperature was used to determine the fish climate niches and their future distributions. Body size was used to infer trophic interactions between fish species. Our projections reveal that 54 fish species of 256 endemic and native species included in our analysis would disappear by 2080-2099 from the Mediterranean continental shelf. The number of feeding links between fish species would decrease on 73.4% of the continental shelf. However, the connectance of the overall fish web would increase on average, from 0.26 to 0.29, mainly due to a differential loss rate of feeding links and species richness. This result masks a systematic decrease in predator generality, estimated here as the number of prey species, from 30.0 to 25.4. Therefore, our study highlights large-scale impacts of climate change on marine food-web structure with potential deep consequences on ecosystem functioning. However, these impacts will likely be highly heterogeneous in space, challenging our current understanding of climate change impact on local marine ecosystems.
pA  
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A08 01  1  ENG  @1 From projected species distribution to food-web structure under climate change
A11 01  1    @1 ALBOUY (Camille)
A11 02  1    @1 VELEZ (Laure)
A11 03  1    @1 COLL (Marta)
A11 04  1    @1 COLLOCA (Francesco)
A11 05  1    @1 LE LOC'H (François)
A11 06  1    @1 MOUILLOT (David)
A11 07  1    @1 GRAVEL (Dominique)
A14 01      @1 Laboratoire Écologie des Systèmes Marins Côtiers UMR 5119 CNRS-UM2-IRD-IFREMER ECOSYM, Place E. Bataillon @2 Montpellier 34095 @3 FRA @Z 1 aut. @Z 2 aut. @Z 6 aut.
A14 02      @1 Laboratoire Écosystèmes Marins Exploités UMR 212, IRD-IFREMER-UM2, avenue Jean Monnet BP171 @2 Sète 34203 @3 FRA @Z 1 aut. @Z 2 aut. @Z 5 aut.
A14 03      @1 Département de biologie, Chimie et Géographie, Université du Québec à Rimouski, 300 Allée des Ursulines @2 Québec G5L 3A1 @3 CAN @Z 1 aut. @Z 7 aut.
A14 04      @1 Institut de Ciències del Mar (ICM-CSIC), Spain & Ecopath International Initiative Research Association, Passeig Marítim de la Barceloneta 37-49 @2 Barcelona 08003 @3 ESP @Z 3 aut.
A14 05      @1 Department of Biology, Faculty of Science, Dalhousie University, 1355 Oxford Street @2 Halifax NS B3H4J1 @3 CAN @Z 3 aut.
A14 06      @1 Istituto per l'Ambiente Marino Costiero, Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche, Via L. Vaccara @2 Mazara del Vallo 61- 91026 @3 ITA @Z 4 aut.
A14 07      @1 ARC Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies, James Cook University @2 Townsville, Qld 4811 @3 AUS @Z 6 aut.
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C01 01    ENG  @0 Climate change is inducing deep modifications in species geographic ranges worldwide. However, the consequences of such changes on community structure are still poorly understood, particularly the impacts on food-web properties. Here, we propose a new framework, coupling species distribution and trophic models, to predict climate change impacts on food-web structure across the Mediterranean Sea. Sea surface temperature was used to determine the fish climate niches and their future distributions. Body size was used to infer trophic interactions between fish species. Our projections reveal that 54 fish species of 256 endemic and native species included in our analysis would disappear by 2080-2099 from the Mediterranean continental shelf. The number of feeding links between fish species would decrease on 73.4% of the continental shelf. However, the connectance of the overall fish web would increase on average, from 0.26 to 0.29, mainly due to a differential loss rate of feeding links and species richness. This result masks a systematic decrease in predator generality, estimated here as the number of prey species, from 30.0 to 25.4. Therefore, our study highlights large-scale impacts of climate change on marine food-web structure with potential deep consequences on ecosystem functioning. However, these impacts will likely be highly heterogeneous in space, challenging our current understanding of climate change impact on local marine ecosystems.
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C03 01  X  FRE  @0 Répartition spatiale @5 01
C03 01  X  ENG  @0 Spatial distribution @5 01
C03 01  X  SPA  @0 Distribución espacial @5 01
C03 02  X  FRE  @0 Aire de distribution @5 02
C03 02  X  ENG  @0 Distribution range @5 02
C03 02  X  SPA  @0 Area de distribución @5 02
C03 03  X  FRE  @0 Structure trophique @5 03
C03 03  X  ENG  @0 Trophic structure @5 03
C03 03  X  SPA  @0 Estructura trófica @5 03
C03 04  X  FRE  @0 Réseau trophique @5 04
C03 04  X  ENG  @0 Food web @5 04
C03 04  X  SPA  @0 Red trófica @5 04
C03 05  X  FRE  @0 Changement climatique @5 05
C03 05  X  ENG  @0 Climate change @5 05
C03 05  X  SPA  @0 Cambio climático @5 05
C03 06  X  FRE  @0 Taille corporelle @5 06
C03 06  X  ENG  @0 Body size @5 06
C03 06  X  SPA  @0 Talla corporal @5 06
C03 07  X  FRE  @0 Niche écologique @5 07
C03 07  X  ENG  @0 Ecological niche @5 07
C03 07  X  SPA  @0 Nicho ecológico @5 07
C03 08  X  FRE  @0 Modèle @5 08
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C03 09  X  SPA  @0 Vulnerabilidad @5 09
C03 10  X  FRE  @0 Milieu marin @5 10
C03 10  X  ENG  @0 Marine environment @5 10
C03 10  X  SPA  @0 Medio marino @5 10
C03 11  X  FRE  @0 Mer Méditerranée @2 NG @5 19
C03 11  X  ENG  @0 Mediterranean Sea @2 NG @5 19
C03 11  X  SPA  @0 Mar Mediterráneo @2 NG @5 19
C07 01  X  FRE  @0 Répartition géographique
C07 01  X  ENG  @0 Geographic distribution
C07 01  X  SPA  @0 Distribución geográfica
C07 02  X  FRE  @0 Climatologie dynamique
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C07 02  X  SPA  @0 Climatología dinámica
N21       @1 090
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<div type="abstract" xml:lang="en">Climate change is inducing deep modifications in species geographic ranges worldwide. However, the consequences of such changes on community structure are still poorly understood, particularly the impacts on food-web properties. Here, we propose a new framework, coupling species distribution and trophic models, to predict climate change impacts on food-web structure across the Mediterranean Sea. Sea surface temperature was used to determine the fish climate niches and their future distributions. Body size was used to infer trophic interactions between fish species. Our projections reveal that 54 fish species of 256 endemic and native species included in our analysis would disappear by 2080-2099 from the Mediterranean continental shelf. The number of feeding links between fish species would decrease on 73.4% of the continental shelf. However, the connectance of the overall fish web would increase on average, from 0.26 to 0.29, mainly due to a differential loss rate of feeding links and species richness. This result masks a systematic decrease in predator generality, estimated here as the number of prey species, from 30.0 to 25.4. Therefore, our study highlights large-scale impacts of climate change on marine food-web structure with potential deep consequences on ecosystem functioning. However, these impacts will likely be highly heterogeneous in space, challenging our current understanding of climate change impact on local marine ecosystems.</div>
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