Simple adaptations to the Templeton model for IVF outcome prediction make it current and clinically useful
Identifieur interne : 000E85 ( PascalFrancis/Corpus ); précédent : 000E84; suivant : 000E86Simple adaptations to the Templeton model for IVF outcome prediction make it current and clinically useful
Auteurs : P. Arvis ; P. Lehert ; A. Guivarc'H-LevequeSource :
- Human reproduction : (Oxford. Print) [ 0268-1161 ] ; 2012.
Descripteurs français
- Pascal (Inist)
English descriptors
- KwdEn :
Abstract
STUDY QUESTION: What is the validity of the Templeton model (TM) in predicting live birth (LB) for a couple starting an IVF/ICSI cycle? SUMMARY ANSWER: A centre-specific model based on the original predictors of the TM may reach a sufficient level of accuracy to be used in every day practice, with a few simple adaptations. WHAT IS KNOWN AND WHAT THIS PAPER ADDS: The TM seems the best predictive model of LB in IVF. However, previous validations of the TM suggest a lack of discrimination and calibration which means that it is not used in regular practice. We confirm this finding, and argue that such results are predictable, and essentially due to a strong centre effect. We provide evidence that the TM constitutes a useful reference reflecting a high proportion of the patient-mix effect since the parameters of the model remain invariant among centres, but also across various cultures, countries and types of hospitals. The only difference was the intercept value, interpreted as the measurement of the global performance of one centre, in particular, for a population of reference. STUDY DESIGN: The validity of the TM was tested by a retrospective analysis all IVF/ICSI cycles (n = 12901) in our centre since 2000. PARTICIPANTS, SETTING AND METHODS: All IVF/ICSI cycles were included in the analysis. The model discrimination was evaluated by C-statistics, calculated as the area under the curve of an ROC curve. The TM was then adjusted for our data and additional variables were assessed. MAIN RESULTS AND THE ROLE OF CHANCE: Poor calibration and discrimination (C= 0.64) was observed in conformity with previous external validations. Fitting the TM to our centre constituted the first substantial improvement in prediction accuracy of discrimination (C = 0.69) and calibration. We identified an important linear time trend effect and the added value of three other predictors (FSH, smoking habits and BMI) that significantly improved the model (C = 0.71). BIAS, CONFOUNDING AND OTHER REASONS FOR CAUTION: Bias due to missing data handling was assessed through sensitivity analyses. GENERALIZABILITY TO OTHER POPULATIONS: Neither the TM nor any other models based on some centres are directly applicable to other centres. However, the TM constitutes a useful basis to build an accurate centre-specific model.
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Format Inist (serveur)
| NO : | PASCAL 12-0436393 INIST |
|---|---|
| ET : | Simple adaptations to the Templeton model for IVF outcome prediction make it current and clinically useful |
| AU : | ARVIS (P.); LEHERT (P.); GUIVARC'H-LEVEQUE (A.) |
| AF : | Clinique la Sagesse, Place St Guénolé/Rennes 35000/France (1 aut., 3 aut.); Statistics Department, Faculty of Economics, University of Louvain, UCL Mons, 151 Chaussée de Binche/7000 Mons/Belgique (2 aut.); Faculty of Medicine, The University of Melbourne/Melbourne/Australie (2 aut.) |
| DT : | Publication en série; Niveau analytique |
| SO : | Human reproduction : (Oxford. Print); ISSN 0268-1161; Coden HUREEE; Royaume-Uni; Da. 2012; Vol. 27; No. 10; Pp. 2971-2978; Bibl. 3/4 p. |
| LA : | Anglais |
| EA : | STUDY QUESTION: What is the validity of the Templeton model (TM) in predicting live birth (LB) for a couple starting an IVF/ICSI cycle? SUMMARY ANSWER: A centre-specific model based on the original predictors of the TM may reach a sufficient level of accuracy to be used in every day practice, with a few simple adaptations. WHAT IS KNOWN AND WHAT THIS PAPER ADDS: The TM seems the best predictive model of LB in IVF. However, previous validations of the TM suggest a lack of discrimination and calibration which means that it is not used in regular practice. We confirm this finding, and argue that such results are predictable, and essentially due to a strong centre effect. We provide evidence that the TM constitutes a useful reference reflecting a high proportion of the patient-mix effect since the parameters of the model remain invariant among centres, but also across various cultures, countries and types of hospitals. The only difference was the intercept value, interpreted as the measurement of the global performance of one centre, in particular, for a population of reference. STUDY DESIGN: The validity of the TM was tested by a retrospective analysis all IVF/ICSI cycles (n = 12901) in our centre since 2000. PARTICIPANTS, SETTING AND METHODS: All IVF/ICSI cycles were included in the analysis. The model discrimination was evaluated by C-statistics, calculated as the area under the curve of an ROC curve. The TM was then adjusted for our data and additional variables were assessed. MAIN RESULTS AND THE ROLE OF CHANCE: Poor calibration and discrimination (C= 0.64) was observed in conformity with previous external validations. Fitting the TM to our centre constituted the first substantial improvement in prediction accuracy of discrimination (C = 0.69) and calibration. We identified an important linear time trend effect and the added value of three other predictors (FSH, smoking habits and BMI) that significantly improved the model (C = 0.71). BIAS, CONFOUNDING AND OTHER REASONS FOR CAUTION: Bias due to missing data handling was assessed through sensitivity analyses. GENERALIZABILITY TO OTHER POPULATIONS: Neither the TM nor any other models based on some centres are directly applicable to other centres. However, the TM constitutes a useful basis to build an accurate centre-specific model. |
| CC : | 002B20 |
| FD : | Adaptation; Modèle; Fécondation in vitro transfert embryon; Pronostic; Prédiction; Naissance; Injection spermatozoïde intracytoplasmique; Mammalia |
| FG : | Vertebrata; Procréation médicalement assistée |
| ED : | Adaptation; Models; In vitro fertilization embryo transfer; Prognosis; Prediction; Birth; Intracytoplasmic sperm injection; Mammalia |
| EG : | Vertebrata; Assisted procreation |
| SD : | Adaptación; Modelo; Fecundación in vitro transplante embrión; Pronóstico; Predicción; Nacimiento; Inyección espermatozoide intracitoplásmica; Mammalia |
| LO : | INIST-21337.354000502901300130 |
| ID : | 12-0436393 |
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Lehert</name><affiliation><inist:fA14 i1="02"><s1>Statistics Department, Faculty of Economics, University of Louvain, UCL Mons, 151 Chaussée de Binche</s1><s2>7000 Mons</s2><s3>BEL</s3><sZ>2 aut.</sZ></inist:fA14></affiliation><affiliation><inist:fA14 i1="03"><s1>Faculty of Medicine, The University of Melbourne</s1><s2>Melbourne</s2><s3>AUS</s3><sZ>2 aut.</sZ></inist:fA14></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Guivarc H Leveque, A" sort="Guivarc H Leveque, A" uniqKey="Guivarc H Leveque A" first="A." last="Guivarc'H-Leveque">A. Guivarc'H-Leveque</name><affiliation><inist:fA14 i1="01"><s1>Clinique la Sagesse, Place St Guénolé</s1><s2>Rennes 35000</s2><s3>FRA</s3><sZ>1 aut.</sZ><sZ>3 aut.</sZ></inist:fA14></affiliation></author></titleStmt><publicationStmt><idno type="wicri:source">INIST</idno><idno type="inist">12-0436393</idno><date when="2012">2012</date><idno type="stanalyst">PASCAL 12-0436393 INIST</idno><idno type="RBID">Pascal:12-0436393</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/PascalFrancis/Corpus">000E85</idno></publicationStmt><sourceDesc><biblStruct><analytic><title xml:lang="en" level="a">Simple adaptations to the Templeton model for IVF outcome prediction make it current and clinically useful</title><author><name sortKey="Arvis, P" sort="Arvis, P" uniqKey="Arvis P" first="P." last="Arvis">P. Arvis</name><affiliation><inist:fA14 i1="01"><s1>Clinique la Sagesse, Place St Guénolé</s1><s2>Rennes 35000</s2><s3>FRA</s3><sZ>1 aut.</sZ><sZ>3 aut.</sZ></inist:fA14></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Lehert, P" sort="Lehert, P" uniqKey="Lehert P" first="P." last="Lehert">P. Lehert</name><affiliation><inist:fA14 i1="02"><s1>Statistics Department, Faculty of Economics, University of Louvain, UCL Mons, 151 Chaussée de Binche</s1><s2>7000 Mons</s2><s3>BEL</s3><sZ>2 aut.</sZ></inist:fA14></affiliation><affiliation><inist:fA14 i1="03"><s1>Faculty of Medicine, The University of Melbourne</s1><s2>Melbourne</s2><s3>AUS</s3><sZ>2 aut.</sZ></inist:fA14></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Guivarc H Leveque, A" sort="Guivarc H Leveque, A" uniqKey="Guivarc H Leveque A" first="A." last="Guivarc'H-Leveque">A. Guivarc'H-Leveque</name><affiliation><inist:fA14 i1="01"><s1>Clinique la Sagesse, Place St Guénolé</s1><s2>Rennes 35000</s2><s3>FRA</s3><sZ>1 aut.</sZ><sZ>3 aut.</sZ></inist:fA14></affiliation></author></analytic><series><title level="j" type="main">Human reproduction : (Oxford. Print)</title><title level="j" type="abbreviated">Hum. reprod. : (Oxf., Print)</title><idno type="ISSN">0268-1161</idno><imprint><date when="2012">2012</date></imprint></series></biblStruct></sourceDesc><seriesStmt><title level="j" type="main">Human reproduction : (Oxford. Print)</title><title level="j" type="abbreviated">Hum. reprod. : (Oxf., Print)</title><idno type="ISSN">0268-1161</idno></seriesStmt></fileDesc><profileDesc><textClass><keywords scheme="KwdEn" xml:lang="en"><term>Adaptation</term><term>Birth</term><term>In vitro fertilization embryo transfer</term><term>Intracytoplasmic sperm injection</term><term>Mammalia</term><term>Models</term><term>Prediction</term><term>Prognosis</term></keywords><keywords scheme="Pascal" xml:lang="fr"><term>Adaptation</term><term>Modèle</term><term>Fécondation in vitro transfert embryon</term><term>Pronostic</term><term>Prédiction</term><term>Naissance</term><term>Injection spermatozoïde intracytoplasmique</term><term>Mammalia</term></keywords></textClass></profileDesc></teiHeader><front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en">STUDY QUESTION: What is the validity of the Templeton model (TM) in predicting live birth (LB) for a couple starting an IVF/ICSI cycle? SUMMARY ANSWER: A centre-specific model based on the original predictors of the TM may reach a sufficient level of accuracy to be used in every day practice, with a few simple adaptations. WHAT IS KNOWN AND WHAT THIS PAPER ADDS: The TM seems the best predictive model of LB in IVF. However, previous validations of the TM suggest a lack of discrimination and calibration which means that it is not used in regular practice. We confirm this finding, and argue that such results are predictable, and essentially due to a strong centre effect. We provide evidence that the TM constitutes a useful reference reflecting a high proportion of the patient-mix effect since the parameters of the model remain invariant among centres, but also across various cultures, countries and types of hospitals. The only difference was the intercept value, interpreted as the measurement of the global performance of one centre, in particular, for a population of reference. STUDY DESIGN: The validity of the TM was tested by a retrospective analysis all IVF/ICSI cycles (n = 12901) in our centre since 2000. PARTICIPANTS, SETTING AND METHODS: All IVF/ICSI cycles were included in the analysis. The model discrimination was evaluated by C-statistics, calculated as the area under the curve of an ROC curve. The TM was then adjusted for our data and additional variables were assessed. MAIN RESULTS AND THE ROLE OF CHANCE: Poor calibration and discrimination (C= 0.64) was observed in conformity with previous external validations. Fitting the TM to our centre constituted the first substantial improvement in prediction accuracy of discrimination (C = 0.69) and calibration. We identified an important linear time trend effect and the added value of three other predictors (FSH, smoking habits and BMI) that significantly improved the model (C = 0.71). BIAS, CONFOUNDING AND OTHER REASONS FOR CAUTION: Bias due to missing data handling was assessed through sensitivity analyses. GENERALIZABILITY TO OTHER POPULATIONS: Neither the TM nor any other models based on some centres are directly applicable to other centres. However, the TM constitutes a useful basis to build an accurate centre-specific model.</div></front></TEI><inist><standard h6="B"><pA><fA01 i1="01" i2="1"><s0>0268-1161</s0></fA01><fA02 i1="01"><s0>HUREEE</s0></fA02><fA03 i2="1"><s0>Hum. reprod. : (Oxf., Print)</s0></fA03><fA05><s2>27</s2></fA05><fA06><s2>10</s2></fA06><fA08 i1="01" i2="1" l="ENG"><s1>Simple adaptations to the Templeton model for IVF outcome prediction make it current and clinically useful</s1></fA08><fA11 i1="01" i2="1"><s1>ARVIS (P.)</s1></fA11><fA11 i1="02" i2="1"><s1>LEHERT (P.)</s1></fA11><fA11 i1="03" i2="1"><s1>GUIVARC'H-LEVEQUE (A.)</s1></fA11><fA14 i1="01"><s1>Clinique la Sagesse, Place St Guénolé</s1><s2>Rennes 35000</s2><s3>FRA</s3><sZ>1 aut.</sZ><sZ>3 aut.</sZ></fA14><fA14 i1="02"><s1>Statistics Department, Faculty of Economics, University of Louvain, UCL Mons, 151 Chaussée de Binche</s1><s2>7000 Mons</s2><s3>BEL</s3><sZ>2 aut.</sZ></fA14><fA14 i1="03"><s1>Faculty of Medicine, The University of Melbourne</s1><s2>Melbourne</s2><s3>AUS</s3><sZ>2 aut.</sZ></fA14><fA20><s1>2971-2978</s1></fA20><fA21><s1>2012</s1></fA21><fA23 i1="01"><s0>ENG</s0></fA23><fA43 i1="01"><s1>INIST</s1><s2>21337</s2><s5>354000502901300130</s5></fA43><fA44><s0>0000</s0><s1>© 2012 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.</s1></fA44><fA45><s0>3/4 p.</s0></fA45><fA47 i1="01" i2="1"><s0>12-0436393</s0></fA47><fA60><s1>P</s1></fA60><fA61><s0>A</s0></fA61><fA64 i1="01" i2="1"><s0>Human reproduction : (Oxford. Print)</s0></fA64><fA66 i1="01"><s0>GBR</s0></fA66><fC01 i1="01" l="ENG"><s0>STUDY QUESTION: What is the validity of the Templeton model (TM) in predicting live birth (LB) for a couple starting an IVF/ICSI cycle? SUMMARY ANSWER: A centre-specific model based on the original predictors of the TM may reach a sufficient level of accuracy to be used in every day practice, with a few simple adaptations. WHAT IS KNOWN AND WHAT THIS PAPER ADDS: The TM seems the best predictive model of LB in IVF. However, previous validations of the TM suggest a lack of discrimination and calibration which means that it is not used in regular practice. We confirm this finding, and argue that such results are predictable, and essentially due to a strong centre effect. We provide evidence that the TM constitutes a useful reference reflecting a high proportion of the patient-mix effect since the parameters of the model remain invariant among centres, but also across various cultures, countries and types of hospitals. The only difference was the intercept value, interpreted as the measurement of the global performance of one centre, in particular, for a population of reference. STUDY DESIGN: The validity of the TM was tested by a retrospective analysis all IVF/ICSI cycles (n = 12901) in our centre since 2000. PARTICIPANTS, SETTING AND METHODS: All IVF/ICSI cycles were included in the analysis. The model discrimination was evaluated by C-statistics, calculated as the area under the curve of an ROC curve. The TM was then adjusted for our data and additional variables were assessed. MAIN RESULTS AND THE ROLE OF CHANCE: Poor calibration and discrimination (C= 0.64) was observed in conformity with previous external validations. Fitting the TM to our centre constituted the first substantial improvement in prediction accuracy of discrimination (C = 0.69) and calibration. We identified an important linear time trend effect and the added value of three other predictors (FSH, smoking habits and BMI) that significantly improved the model (C = 0.71). BIAS, CONFOUNDING AND OTHER REASONS FOR CAUTION: Bias due to missing data handling was assessed through sensitivity analyses. GENERALIZABILITY TO OTHER POPULATIONS: Neither the TM nor any other models based on some centres are directly applicable to other centres. 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Print); ISSN 0268-1161; Coden HUREEE; Royaume-Uni; Da. 2012; Vol. 27; No. 10; Pp. 2971-2978; Bibl. 3/4 p.</SO><LA>Anglais</LA><EA>STUDY QUESTION: What is the validity of the Templeton model (TM) in predicting live birth (LB) for a couple starting an IVF/ICSI cycle? SUMMARY ANSWER: A centre-specific model based on the original predictors of the TM may reach a sufficient level of accuracy to be used in every day practice, with a few simple adaptations. WHAT IS KNOWN AND WHAT THIS PAPER ADDS: The TM seems the best predictive model of LB in IVF. However, previous validations of the TM suggest a lack of discrimination and calibration which means that it is not used in regular practice. We confirm this finding, and argue that such results are predictable, and essentially due to a strong centre effect. We provide evidence that the TM constitutes a useful reference reflecting a high proportion of the patient-mix effect since the parameters of the model remain invariant among centres, but also across various cultures, countries and types of hospitals. The only difference was the intercept value, interpreted as the measurement of the global performance of one centre, in particular, for a population of reference. STUDY DESIGN: The validity of the TM was tested by a retrospective analysis all IVF/ICSI cycles (n = 12901) in our centre since 2000. PARTICIPANTS, SETTING AND METHODS: All IVF/ICSI cycles were included in the analysis. The model discrimination was evaluated by C-statistics, calculated as the area under the curve of an ROC curve. The TM was then adjusted for our data and additional variables were assessed. MAIN RESULTS AND THE ROLE OF CHANCE: Poor calibration and discrimination (C= 0.64) was observed in conformity with previous external validations. Fitting the TM to our centre constituted the first substantial improvement in prediction accuracy of discrimination (C = 0.69) and calibration. We identified an important linear time trend effect and the added value of three other predictors (FSH, smoking habits and BMI) that significantly improved the model (C = 0.71). BIAS, CONFOUNDING AND OTHER REASONS FOR CAUTION: Bias due to missing data handling was assessed through sensitivity analyses. GENERALIZABILITY TO OTHER POPULATIONS: Neither the TM nor any other models based on some centres are directly applicable to other centres. However, the TM constitutes a useful basis to build an accurate centre-specific model.</EA><CC>002B20</CC><FD>Adaptation; Modèle; Fécondation in vitro transfert embryon; Pronostic; Prédiction; Naissance; Injection spermatozoïde intracytoplasmique; Mammalia</FD><FG>Vertebrata; Procréation médicalement assistée</FG><ED>Adaptation; Models; In vitro fertilization embryo transfer; Prognosis; Prediction; Birth; Intracytoplasmic sperm injection; Mammalia</ED><EG>Vertebrata; Assisted procreation</EG><SD>Adaptación; Modelo; Fecundación in vitro transplante embrión; Pronóstico; Predicción; Nacimiento; Inyección espermatozoide intracitoplásmica; Mammalia</SD><LO>INIST-21337.354000502901300130</LO><ID>12-0436393</ID></server></inist></record>Pour manipuler ce document sous Unix (Dilib)
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