Different climatic envelopes among invasive populations may lead to underestimations of current and future biological invasions
Identifieur interne : 002B98 ( PascalFrancis/Checkpoint ); précédent : 002B97; suivant : 002B99Different climatic envelopes among invasive populations may lead to underestimations of current and future biological invasions
Auteurs : Linda J. Beaumont [Australie, France] ; Rachael V. Gallagher [Australie] ; Wilfried Thuiller [France] ; Paul O. Downey [Australie] ; Michelle R. Leishman [Australie] ; Lesley Hughes [Australie]Source :
- Diversity and distributions [ 1366-9516 ] ; 2009.
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- topic : Climat, Changement climatique.
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Abstract
Aim We explore the impact of calibrating ecological niche models (ENMs) using (1) native range (NR) data versus (2) entire range (ER) data (native and invasive) on projections of current and future distributions of three Hieracium species. Location H. aurantiacum, H. murorum and H. pilosella are native to Europe and invasive in Australia, New Zealand and North America. Methods Differences among the native and invasive realized climatic niches of each species were quantified. Eight ENMs in BIOMOD were calibrated with (1) NR and (2) ER data. Current European, North American and Australian distributions were projected. Future Australian distributions were modelled using four climate change scenarios for 2030. Results The invasive climatic niche of H. murorum is primarily a subset of that expressed in its native range. Invasive populations of H. aurantiacum and H. pilosella occupy different climatic niches to those realized in their native ranges. Furthermore, geographically separate invasive populations of these two species have distinct climatic niches. ENMs calibrated on the realized niche of native regions projected smaller distributions than models incorporating data from species' entire ranges, and failed to correctly predict many known invasive populations. Under future climate scenarios, projected distributions decreased by similar percentages, regardless of the data used to calibrate ENMs; however, the overall sizes of projected distributions varied substantially. Main conclusions This study provides quantitative evidence that invasive populations of Hieracium species can occur in areas with different climatic conditions than experienced in their native ranges. For these, and similar species, calibration of ENMs based on NR data only will misrepresent their potential invasive distribution. These errors will propagate when estimating climate change impacts. Thus, incorporating data from species' entire distributions may result in a more thorough assessment of current and future ranges, and provides a closer approximation of the elusive fundamental niche.
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<record><TEI><teiHeader><fileDesc><titleStmt><title xml:lang="en" level="a">Different climatic envelopes among invasive populations may lead to underestimations of current and future biological invasions</title><author><name sortKey="Beaumont, Linda J" sort="Beaumont, Linda J" uniqKey="Beaumont L" first="Linda J." last="Beaumont">Linda J. Beaumont</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><inist:fA14 i1="01"><s1>Department of Biological Sciences, Macquarie University</s1><s2>New South Wales, 2109</s2><s3>AUS</s3><sZ>1 aut.</sZ><sZ>2 aut.</sZ><sZ>5 aut.</sZ><sZ>6 aut.</sZ></inist:fA14><country>Australie</country><wicri:noRegion>New South Wales, 2109</wicri:noRegion></affiliation><affiliation wicri:level="1"><inist:fA14 i1="02"><s1>Laboratoire d'Ecologie Alpine, UMR CNRS 5553, Université J. 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Fourier BP 53</s1><s2>38041 Grenoble</s2><s3>FRA</s3><sZ>1 aut.</sZ><sZ>3 aut.</sZ></inist:fA14><country>France</country><wicri:noRegion>38041 Grenoble</wicri:noRegion><placeName><settlement type="city">Grenoble</settlement><region type="region" nuts="2">Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes</region><region type="old region" nuts="2">Rhône-Alpes</region></placeName></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Downey, Paul O" sort="Downey, Paul O" uniqKey="Downey P" first="Paul O." last="Downey">Paul O. Downey</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><inist:fA14 i1="03"><s1>Pest Management Unit, Parks and Wildlife Division, Department of Environment and Climate Change (NSW), PO Box 1967</s1><s2>Hurstville, New South Wales 2220</s2><s3>AUS</s3><sZ>4 aut.</sZ></inist:fA14><country>Australie</country><wicri:noRegion>Hurstville, New South Wales 2220</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Leishman, Michelle R" sort="Leishman, Michelle R" uniqKey="Leishman M" first="Michelle R." last="Leishman">Michelle R. Leishman</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><inist:fA14 i1="01"><s1>Department of Biological Sciences, Macquarie University</s1><s2>New South Wales, 2109</s2><s3>AUS</s3><sZ>1 aut.</sZ><sZ>2 aut.</sZ><sZ>5 aut.</sZ><sZ>6 aut.</sZ></inist:fA14><country>Australie</country><wicri:noRegion>New South Wales, 2109</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Hughes, Lesley" sort="Hughes, Lesley" uniqKey="Hughes L" first="Lesley" last="Hughes">Lesley Hughes</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><inist:fA14 i1="01"><s1>Department of Biological Sciences, Macquarie University</s1><s2>New South Wales, 2109</s2><s3>AUS</s3><sZ>1 aut.</sZ><sZ>2 aut.</sZ><sZ>5 aut.</sZ><sZ>6 aut.</sZ></inist:fA14><country>Australie</country><wicri:noRegion>New South Wales, 2109</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author></titleStmt><publicationStmt><idno type="wicri:source">INIST</idno><idno type="inist">09-0218988</idno><date when="2009">2009</date><idno type="stanalyst">PASCAL 09-0218988 INIST</idno><idno type="RBID">Pascal:09-0218988</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/PascalFrancis/Corpus">002E15</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/PascalFrancis/Curation">003205</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/PascalFrancis/Checkpoint">002B98</idno><idno type="wicri:explorRef" wicri:stream="PascalFrancis" wicri:step="Checkpoint">002B98</idno></publicationStmt><sourceDesc><biblStruct><analytic><title xml:lang="en" level="a">Different climatic envelopes among invasive populations may lead to underestimations of current and future biological invasions</title><author><name sortKey="Beaumont, Linda J" sort="Beaumont, Linda J" uniqKey="Beaumont L" first="Linda J." last="Beaumont">Linda J. Beaumont</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><inist:fA14 i1="01"><s1>Department of Biological Sciences, Macquarie University</s1><s2>New South Wales, 2109</s2><s3>AUS</s3><sZ>1 aut.</sZ><sZ>2 aut.</sZ><sZ>5 aut.</sZ><sZ>6 aut.</sZ></inist:fA14><country>Australie</country><wicri:noRegion>New South Wales, 2109</wicri:noRegion></affiliation><affiliation wicri:level="1"><inist:fA14 i1="02"><s1>Laboratoire d'Ecologie Alpine, UMR CNRS 5553, Université J. Fourier BP 53</s1><s2>38041 Grenoble</s2><s3>FRA</s3><sZ>1 aut.</sZ><sZ>3 aut.</sZ></inist:fA14><country>France</country><wicri:noRegion>38041 Grenoble</wicri:noRegion><placeName><settlement type="city">Grenoble</settlement><region type="region" nuts="2">Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes</region><region type="old region" nuts="2">Rhône-Alpes</region></placeName></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Gallagher, Rachael V" sort="Gallagher, Rachael V" uniqKey="Gallagher R" first="Rachael V." last="Gallagher">Rachael V. Gallagher</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><inist:fA14 i1="01"><s1>Department of Biological Sciences, Macquarie University</s1><s2>New South Wales, 2109</s2><s3>AUS</s3><sZ>1 aut.</sZ><sZ>2 aut.</sZ><sZ>5 aut.</sZ><sZ>6 aut.</sZ></inist:fA14><country>Australie</country><wicri:noRegion>New South Wales, 2109</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Thuiller, Wilfried" sort="Thuiller, Wilfried" uniqKey="Thuiller W" first="Wilfried" last="Thuiller">Wilfried Thuiller</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><inist:fA14 i1="02"><s1>Laboratoire d'Ecologie Alpine, UMR CNRS 5553, Université J. Fourier BP 53</s1><s2>38041 Grenoble</s2><s3>FRA</s3><sZ>1 aut.</sZ><sZ>3 aut.</sZ></inist:fA14><country>France</country><wicri:noRegion>38041 Grenoble</wicri:noRegion><placeName><settlement type="city">Grenoble</settlement><region type="region" nuts="2">Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes</region><region type="old region" nuts="2">Rhône-Alpes</region></placeName></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Downey, Paul O" sort="Downey, Paul O" uniqKey="Downey P" first="Paul O." last="Downey">Paul O. Downey</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><inist:fA14 i1="03"><s1>Pest Management Unit, Parks and Wildlife Division, Department of Environment and Climate Change (NSW), PO Box 1967</s1><s2>Hurstville, New South Wales 2220</s2><s3>AUS</s3><sZ>4 aut.</sZ></inist:fA14><country>Australie</country><wicri:noRegion>Hurstville, New South Wales 2220</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Leishman, Michelle R" sort="Leishman, Michelle R" uniqKey="Leishman M" first="Michelle R." last="Leishman">Michelle R. Leishman</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><inist:fA14 i1="01"><s1>Department of Biological Sciences, Macquarie University</s1><s2>New South Wales, 2109</s2><s3>AUS</s3><sZ>1 aut.</sZ><sZ>2 aut.</sZ><sZ>5 aut.</sZ><sZ>6 aut.</sZ></inist:fA14><country>Australie</country><wicri:noRegion>New South Wales, 2109</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Hughes, Lesley" sort="Hughes, Lesley" uniqKey="Hughes L" first="Lesley" last="Hughes">Lesley Hughes</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><inist:fA14 i1="01"><s1>Department of Biological Sciences, Macquarie University</s1><s2>New South Wales, 2109</s2><s3>AUS</s3><sZ>1 aut.</sZ><sZ>2 aut.</sZ><sZ>5 aut.</sZ><sZ>6 aut.</sZ></inist:fA14><country>Australie</country><wicri:noRegion>New South Wales, 2109</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author></analytic><series><title level="j" type="main">Diversity and distributions</title><title level="j" type="abbreviated">Divers. distrib.</title><idno type="ISSN">1366-9516</idno><imprint><date when="2009">2009</date></imprint></series></biblStruct></sourceDesc><seriesStmt><title level="j" type="main">Diversity and distributions</title><title level="j" type="abbreviated">Divers. distrib.</title><idno type="ISSN">1366-9516</idno></seriesStmt></fileDesc><profileDesc><textClass><keywords scheme="KwdEn" xml:lang="en"><term>Biodiversity</term><term>Biological invasion</term><term>Climate</term><term>Climate change</term><term>Climatic condition</term><term>Ecological niche</term><term>Invasive species</term><term>Models</term></keywords><keywords scheme="Pascal" xml:lang="fr"><term>Climat</term><term>Condition climatique</term><term>Changement climatique</term><term>Niche écologique</term><term>Modèle</term><term>Espèce envahissante</term><term>Diversité biologique</term><term>Invasion biologique</term></keywords><keywords scheme="Wicri" type="topic" xml:lang="fr"><term>Climat</term><term>Changement climatique</term></keywords></textClass></profileDesc></teiHeader><front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en">Aim We explore the impact of calibrating ecological niche models (ENMs) using (1) native range (NR) data versus (2) entire range (ER) data (native and invasive) on projections of current and future distributions of three Hieracium species. Location H. aurantiacum, H. murorum and H. pilosella are native to Europe and invasive in Australia, New Zealand and North America. Methods Differences among the native and invasive realized climatic niches of each species were quantified. Eight ENMs in BIOMOD were calibrated with (1) NR and (2) ER data. Current European, North American and Australian distributions were projected. Future Australian distributions were modelled using four climate change scenarios for 2030. Results The invasive climatic niche of H. murorum is primarily a subset of that expressed in its native range. Invasive populations of H. aurantiacum and H. pilosella occupy different climatic niches to those realized in their native ranges. Furthermore, geographically separate invasive populations of these two species have distinct climatic niches. ENMs calibrated on the realized niche of native regions projected smaller distributions than models incorporating data from species' entire ranges, and failed to correctly predict many known invasive populations. Under future climate scenarios, projected distributions decreased by similar percentages, regardless of the data used to calibrate ENMs; however, the overall sizes of projected distributions varied substantially. Main conclusions This study provides quantitative evidence that invasive populations of Hieracium species can occur in areas with different climatic conditions than experienced in their native ranges. For these, and similar species, calibration of ENMs based on NR data only will misrepresent their potential invasive distribution. These errors will propagate when estimating climate change impacts. Thus, incorporating data from species' entire distributions may result in a more thorough assessment of current and future ranges, and provides a closer approximation of the elusive fundamental niche.</div></front></TEI><inist><standard h6="B"><pA><fA01 i1="01" i2="1"><s0>1366-9516</s0></fA01><fA03 i2="1"><s0>Divers. distrib.</s0></fA03><fA05><s2>15</s2></fA05><fA06><s2>3</s2></fA06><fA08 i1="01" i2="1" l="ENG"><s1>Different climatic envelopes among invasive populations may lead to underestimations of current and future biological invasions</s1></fA08><fA11 i1="01" i2="1"><s1>BEAUMONT (Linda J.)</s1></fA11><fA11 i1="02" i2="1"><s1>GALLAGHER (Rachael V.)</s1></fA11><fA11 i1="03" i2="1"><s1>THUILLER (Wilfried)</s1></fA11><fA11 i1="04" i2="1"><s1>DOWNEY (Paul O.)</s1></fA11><fA11 i1="05" i2="1"><s1>LEISHMAN (Michelle R.)</s1></fA11><fA11 i1="06" i2="1"><s1>HUGHES (Lesley)</s1></fA11><fA14 i1="01"><s1>Department of Biological Sciences, Macquarie University</s1><s2>New South Wales, 2109</s2><s3>AUS</s3><sZ>1 aut.</sZ><sZ>2 aut.</sZ><sZ>5 aut.</sZ><sZ>6 aut.</sZ></fA14><fA14 i1="02"><s1>Laboratoire d'Ecologie Alpine, UMR CNRS 5553, Université J. Fourier BP 53</s1><s2>38041 Grenoble</s2><s3>FRA</s3><sZ>1 aut.</sZ><sZ>3 aut.</sZ></fA14><fA14 i1="03"><s1>Pest Management Unit, Parks and Wildlife Division, Department of Environment and Climate Change (NSW), PO Box 1967</s1><s2>Hurstville, New South Wales 2220</s2><s3>AUS</s3><sZ>4 aut.</sZ></fA14><fA20><s1>409-420</s1></fA20><fA21><s1>2009</s1></fA21><fA23 i1="01"><s0>ENG</s0></fA23><fA43 i1="01"><s1>INIST</s1><s2>27025</s2><s5>354000196145110050</s5></fA43><fA44><s0>0000</s0><s1>© 2009 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.</s1></fA44><fA45><s0>2 p.1/4</s0></fA45><fA47 i1="01" i2="1"><s0>09-0218988</s0></fA47><fA60><s1>P</s1></fA60><fA61><s0>A</s0></fA61><fA64 i1="01" i2="1"><s0>Diversity and distributions</s0></fA64><fA66 i1="01"><s0>GBR</s0></fA66><fC01 i1="01" l="ENG"><s0>Aim We explore the impact of calibrating ecological niche models (ENMs) using (1) native range (NR) data versus (2) entire range (ER) data (native and invasive) on projections of current and future distributions of three Hieracium species. Location H. aurantiacum, H. murorum and H. pilosella are native to Europe and invasive in Australia, New Zealand and North America. Methods Differences among the native and invasive realized climatic niches of each species were quantified. Eight ENMs in BIOMOD were calibrated with (1) NR and (2) ER data. Current European, North American and Australian distributions were projected. Future Australian distributions were modelled using four climate change scenarios for 2030. Results The invasive climatic niche of H. murorum is primarily a subset of that expressed in its native range. Invasive populations of H. aurantiacum and H. pilosella occupy different climatic niches to those realized in their native ranges. Furthermore, geographically separate invasive populations of these two species have distinct climatic niches. ENMs calibrated on the realized niche of native regions projected smaller distributions than models incorporating data from species' entire ranges, and failed to correctly predict many known invasive populations. Under future climate scenarios, projected distributions decreased by similar percentages, regardless of the data used to calibrate ENMs; however, the overall sizes of projected distributions varied substantially. Main conclusions This study provides quantitative evidence that invasive populations of Hieracium species can occur in areas with different climatic conditions than experienced in their native ranges. For these, and similar species, calibration of ENMs based on NR data only will misrepresent their potential invasive distribution. These errors will propagate when estimating climate change impacts. Thus, incorporating data from species' entire distributions may result in a more thorough assessment of current and future ranges, and provides a closer approximation of the elusive fundamental niche.</s0></fC01><fC02 i1="01" i2="X"><s0>002A14D01</s0></fC02><fC02 i1="02" i2="2"><s0>001E02D10</s0></fC02><fC03 i1="01" i2="X" l="FRE"><s0>Climat</s0><s5>01</s5></fC03><fC03 i1="01" i2="X" l="ENG"><s0>Climate</s0><s5>01</s5></fC03><fC03 i1="01" i2="X" l="SPA"><s0>Clima</s0><s5>01</s5></fC03><fC03 i1="02" i2="X" l="FRE"><s0>Condition climatique</s0><s5>02</s5></fC03><fC03 i1="02" i2="X" l="ENG"><s0>Climatic condition</s0><s5>02</s5></fC03><fC03 i1="02" i2="X" l="SPA"><s0>Condición climática</s0><s5>02</s5></fC03><fC03 i1="03" i2="X" l="FRE"><s0>Changement climatique</s0><s5>04</s5></fC03><fC03 i1="03" i2="X" l="ENG"><s0>Climate change</s0><s5>04</s5></fC03><fC03 i1="03" i2="X" l="SPA"><s0>Cambio climático</s0><s5>04</s5></fC03><fC03 i1="04" i2="X" l="FRE"><s0>Niche écologique</s0><s5>05</s5></fC03><fC03 i1="04" i2="X" l="ENG"><s0>Ecological niche</s0><s5>05</s5></fC03><fC03 i1="04" i2="X" l="SPA"><s0>Nicho ecológico</s0><s5>05</s5></fC03><fC03 i1="05" i2="X" l="FRE"><s0>Modèle</s0><s5>06</s5></fC03><fC03 i1="05" i2="X" l="ENG"><s0>Models</s0><s5>06</s5></fC03><fC03 i1="05" i2="X" l="SPA"><s0>Modelo</s0><s5>06</s5></fC03><fC03 i1="06" i2="X" l="FRE"><s0>Espèce envahissante</s0><s5>07</s5></fC03><fC03 i1="06" i2="X" l="ENG"><s0>Invasive species</s0><s5>07</s5></fC03><fC03 i1="06" i2="X" l="SPA"><s0>Especie invasora</s0><s5>07</s5></fC03><fC03 i1="07" i2="X" l="FRE"><s0>Diversité biologique</s0><s5>08</s5></fC03><fC03 i1="07" i2="X" l="ENG"><s0>Biodiversity</s0><s5>08</s5></fC03><fC03 i1="07" i2="X" l="SPA"><s0>Diversidad biológica</s0><s5>08</s5></fC03><fC03 i1="08" i2="X" l="FRE"><s0>Invasion biologique</s0><s4>CD</s4><s5>96</s5></fC03><fC03 i1="08" i2="X" l="ENG"><s0>Biological invasion</s0><s4>CD</s4><s5>96</s5></fC03><fC07 i1="01" i2="X" l="FRE"><s0>Climatologie dynamique</s0></fC07><fC07 i1="01" i2="X" l="ENG"><s0>Dynamical climatology</s0></fC07><fC07 i1="01" i2="X" l="SPA"><s0>Climatología dinámica</s0></fC07><fN21><s1>159</s1></fN21></pA></standard></inist><affiliations><list><country><li>Australie</li><li>France</li></country><region><li>Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes</li><li>Rhône-Alpes</li></region><settlement><li>Grenoble</li></settlement></list><tree><country name="Australie"><noRegion><name sortKey="Beaumont, Linda J" sort="Beaumont, Linda J" uniqKey="Beaumont L" first="Linda J." last="Beaumont">Linda J. Beaumont</name></noRegion><name sortKey="Downey, Paul O" sort="Downey, Paul O" uniqKey="Downey P" first="Paul O." last="Downey">Paul O. Downey</name><name sortKey="Gallagher, Rachael V" sort="Gallagher, Rachael V" uniqKey="Gallagher R" first="Rachael V." last="Gallagher">Rachael V. Gallagher</name><name sortKey="Hughes, Lesley" sort="Hughes, Lesley" uniqKey="Hughes L" first="Lesley" last="Hughes">Lesley Hughes</name><name sortKey="Leishman, Michelle R" sort="Leishman, Michelle R" uniqKey="Leishman M" first="Michelle R." last="Leishman">Michelle R. Leishman</name></country><country name="France"><region name="Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes"><name sortKey="Beaumont, Linda J" sort="Beaumont, Linda J" uniqKey="Beaumont L" first="Linda J." last="Beaumont">Linda J. 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