An International Model to Predict Recurrent Cardiovascular Disease
Identifieur interne : 001368 ( PascalFrancis/Checkpoint ); précédent : 001367; suivant : 001369An International Model to Predict Recurrent Cardiovascular Disease
Auteurs : Peter W. F. Wilson [États-Unis] ; Ralph D'Agostino [États-Unis] ; Deepak L. Bhatt [États-Unis] ; Kim Eagle [États-Unis] ; Michael J. Pencina [États-Unis] ; Sidney C. Smith [États-Unis] ; Mark J. Alberts [États-Unis] ; Jean Dallongeville [France] ; Shinya Goto [Japon] ; Alan T. Hirsch [États-Unis] ; Chiau-Suong Liau [Taïwan] ; E. Magnus Ohman [États-Unis] ; Joachim Röther [Allemagne] ; Christopher Reid [Australie] ; Jean-Louis Mas [France] ; Gabriel Steg [France]Source :
- The American journal of medicine [ 0002-9343 ] ; 2012.
Descripteurs français
- Pascal (Inist)
- Wicri :
- topic : Médecine.
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Abstract
BACKGROUND: Prediction models for cardiovascular events and cardiovascular death in patients with established cardiovascular disease are not generally available. METHODS: Participants from the prospective REduction of Atherothrombosis for Continued Health (REACH) Registry provided a global outpatient population with known cardiovascular disease at entry. Cardiovascular prediction models were estimated from the 2-year follow-up data of 49,689 participants from around the world. RESULTS: A developmental prediction model was estimated from 33,419 randomly selected participants (2394 cardiovascular events with 1029 cardiovascular deaths) from the pool of 49,689. The number of vascular beds with clinical disease, diabetes, smoking, low body mass index, history of atrial fibrillation, cardiac failure, and history of cardiovascular event(s) < 1 year before baseline examination increased risk of a subsequent cardiovascular event. Statin (hazard ratio 0.75; 95% confidence interval, 0.69-0.82) and acetylsalicylic acid therapy (hazard ratio 0.90; 95% confidence interval, 0.83-0.99) also were significantly associated with reduced risk of cardiovascular events. The prediction model was validated in the remaining 16,270 REACH subjects (1172 cardiovascular events, 494 cardiovascular deaths). Risk of cardiovascular death was similarly estimated with the same set of risk factors. Simple algorithms were developed for prediction of overall cardiovascular events and for cardiovascular death. CONCLUSIONS: This study establishes and validates a risk model to predict secondary cardiovascular events and cardiovascular death in outpatients with established atherothrombotic disease. Traditional risk factors, burden of disease, lack of treatment, and geographic location all are related to an increased risk of subsequent cardiovascular morbidity and cardiovascular mortality.
Affiliations:
- Allemagne, Australie, France, Japon, Taïwan, États-Unis
- Caroline du Nord, Hauts-de-France, Nord-Pas-de-Calais, Île-de-France
- Chapel Hill (Caroline du Nord), Lille, Paris
- Université de Caroline du Nord à Chapel Hill
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<record><TEI><teiHeader><fileDesc><titleStmt><title xml:lang="en" level="a">An International Model to Predict Recurrent Cardiovascular Disease</title><author><name sortKey="Wilson, Peter W F" sort="Wilson, Peter W F" uniqKey="Wilson P" first="Peter W. F." last="Wilson">Peter W. F. Wilson</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><inist:fA14 i1="01"><s1>Atlanta VA Medical Center and Cardiology Division, Emory University School of Medicine</s1><s2>Atlanta, Ga</s2><s3>USA</s3><sZ>1 aut.</sZ></inist:fA14><country>États-Unis</country><wicri:noRegion>Atlanta, Ga</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="D Agostino, Ralph" sort="D Agostino, Ralph" uniqKey="D Agostino R" first="Ralph" last="D'Agostino">Ralph D'Agostino</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><inist:fA14 i1="02"><s1>Statistics and Consulting Unit, Boston University</s1><s2>Boston, Mass</s2><s3>USA</s3><sZ>2 aut.</sZ></inist:fA14><country>États-Unis</country><wicri:noRegion>Boston, Mass</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Bhatt, Deepak L" sort="Bhatt, Deepak L" uniqKey="Bhatt D" first="Deepak L." last="Bhatt">Deepak L. Bhatt</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><inist:fA14 i1="03"><s1>VA Boston Healthcare System, Brigham & Women's Hospital, and Harvard Medical School</s1><s2>Boston, Mass</s2><s3>USA</s3><sZ>3 aut.</sZ></inist:fA14><country>États-Unis</country><wicri:noRegion>Boston, Mass</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Eagle, Kim" sort="Eagle, Kim" uniqKey="Eagle K" first="Kim" last="Eagle">Kim Eagle</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><inist:fA14 i1="04"><s1>University of Michigan Cardiovascular Center</s1><s2>Ann Arbor</s2><s3>USA</s3><sZ>4 aut.</sZ></inist:fA14><country>États-Unis</country><wicri:noRegion>University of Michigan Cardiovascular Center</wicri:noRegion></affiliation><affiliation wicri:level="1"><inist:fA14 i1="06"><s1>University of Michigan Cardiovascular Center</s1><s2>Ann Arbor</s2><s3>USA</s3><sZ>4 aut.</sZ></inist:fA14><country>États-Unis</country><wicri:noRegion>University of Michigan Cardiovascular Center</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Pencina, Michael J" sort="Pencina, Michael J" uniqKey="Pencina M" first="Michael J." last="Pencina">Michael J. Pencina</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><inist:fA14 i1="05"><s1>Statistics and Consulting Unit, Department of Biostatistics</s1><s2>Boston, Mass</s2><s3>USA</s3><sZ>5 aut.</sZ></inist:fA14><country>États-Unis</country><wicri:noRegion>Boston, Mass</wicri:noRegion></affiliation><affiliation wicri:level="1"><inist:fA14 i1="07"><s1>Statistics and Consulting Unit, Department of Biostatistics, Boston University</s1><s2>Mass</s2><s3>USA</s3><sZ>5 aut.</sZ></inist:fA14><country>États-Unis</country><wicri:noRegion>Mass</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Smith, Sidney C" sort="Smith, Sidney C" uniqKey="Smith S" first="Sidney C." last="Smith">Sidney C. Smith</name><affiliation wicri:level="4"><inist:fA14 i1="08"><s1>University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill</s1><s3>USA</s3><sZ>6 aut.</sZ></inist:fA14><country>États-Unis</country><placeName><settlement type="city">Chapel Hill (Caroline du Nord)</settlement><region type="state">Caroline du Nord</region></placeName><orgName type="university">Université de Caroline du Nord à Chapel Hill</orgName></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Alberts, Mark J" sort="Alberts, Mark J" uniqKey="Alberts M" first="Mark J." last="Alberts">Mark J. Alberts</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><inist:fA14 i1="09"><s1>Northwestern University Medical School</s1><s2>Chicago, Ill</s2><s3>USA</s3><sZ>7 aut.</sZ></inist:fA14><country>États-Unis</country><wicri:noRegion>Northwestern University Medical School</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Dallongeville, Jean" sort="Dallongeville, Jean" uniqKey="Dallongeville J" first="Jean" last="Dallongeville">Jean Dallongeville</name><affiliation wicri:level="3"><inist:fA14 i1="10"><s1>Institut Pasteur de Lille</s1><s2>Lille</s2><s3>FRA</s3><sZ>8 aut.</sZ></inist:fA14><country>France</country><placeName><region type="region">Hauts-de-France</region><region type="old region">Nord-Pas-de-Calais</region><settlement type="city">Lille</settlement></placeName></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Goto, Shinya" sort="Goto, Shinya" uniqKey="Goto S" first="Shinya" last="Goto">Shinya Goto</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><inist:fA14 i1="11"><s1>Department of Medicine, Tokai University School of Medicine</s1><s2>Kanagawa</s2><s3>JPN</s3><sZ>9 aut.</sZ></inist:fA14><country>Japon</country><wicri:noRegion>Kanagawa</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Hirsch, Alan T" sort="Hirsch, Alan T" uniqKey="Hirsch A" first="Alan T." last="Hirsch">Alan T. Hirsch</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><inist:fA14 i1="12"><s1>Division of Epidemiology and Community Health, University of Minnesota School of Public Health and Minneapolis Heart Institute Foundation</s1><s2>Minneapolis</s2><s3>USA</s3><sZ>10 aut.</sZ></inist:fA14><country>États-Unis</country><wicri:noRegion>Minneapolis</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Liau, Chiau Suong" sort="Liau, Chiau Suong" uniqKey="Liau C" first="Chiau-Suong" last="Liau">Chiau-Suong Liau</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><inist:fA14 i1="13"><s1>Department of Internal Medicine, National Taiwan University Hospital and School of Medicine</s1><s2>Taipei</s2><s3>TWN</s3><sZ>11 aut.</sZ></inist:fA14><country>Taïwan</country><wicri:noRegion>Taipei</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Magnus Ohman, E" sort="Magnus Ohman, E" uniqKey="Magnus Ohman E" first="E." last="Magnus Ohman">E. Magnus Ohman</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><inist:fA14 i1="14"><s1>Division of Cardiology, Duke University</s1><s2>Durham, NC</s2><s3>USA</s3><sZ>12 aut.</sZ></inist:fA14><country>États-Unis</country><wicri:noRegion>Durham, NC</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Rother, Joachim" sort="Rother, Joachim" uniqKey="Rother J" first="Joachim" last="Röther">Joachim Röther</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><inist:fA14 i1="15"><s1>Department of Neurology, Klinikum Minden</s1><s2>Minden</s2><s3>DEU</s3><sZ>13 aut.</sZ></inist:fA14><country>Allemagne</country><wicri:noRegion>Minden</wicri:noRegion><wicri:noRegion>Klinikum Minden</wicri:noRegion><wicri:noRegion>Minden</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Reid, Christopher" sort="Reid, Christopher" uniqKey="Reid C" first="Christopher" last="Reid">Christopher Reid</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><inist:fA14 i1="16"><s1>Monash University</s1><s2>Victoria</s2><s3>AUS</s3><sZ>14 aut.</sZ></inist:fA14><country>Australie</country><wicri:noRegion>Monash University</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Mas, Jean Louis" sort="Mas, Jean Louis" uniqKey="Mas J" first="Jean-Louis" last="Mas">Jean-Louis Mas</name><affiliation wicri:level="3"><inist:fA14 i1="17"><s1>Service de Neurologie, Centre Raymond Garcin, Hôpital Sainte-Anne</s1><s2>Paris</s2><s3>FRA</s3><sZ>15 aut.</sZ></inist:fA14><country>France</country><placeName><region type="region">Île-de-France</region><region type="old region">Île-de-France</region><settlement type="city">Paris</settlement></placeName></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Steg, Gabriel" sort="Steg, Gabriel" uniqKey="Steg G" first="Gabriel" last="Steg">Gabriel Steg</name><affiliation wicri:level="3"><inist:fA14 i1="18"><s1>INSERM U-698 et Université Paris VII-Denis Diderot, Hôpital Bichat-Claude Bernard</s1><s2>Paris</s2><s3>FRA</s3><sZ>16 aut.</sZ></inist:fA14><country>France</country><placeName><region type="region">Île-de-France</region><region type="old region">Île-de-France</region><settlement type="city">Paris</settlement></placeName></affiliation></author></titleStmt><publicationStmt><idno type="wicri:source">INIST</idno><idno type="inist">12-0310574</idno><date when="2012">2012</date><idno type="stanalyst">PASCAL 12-0310574 INIST</idno><idno type="RBID">Pascal:12-0310574</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/PascalFrancis/Corpus">001219</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/PascalFrancis/Curation">004C98</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/PascalFrancis/Checkpoint">001368</idno><idno type="wicri:explorRef" wicri:stream="PascalFrancis" wicri:step="Checkpoint">001368</idno></publicationStmt><sourceDesc><biblStruct><analytic><title xml:lang="en" level="a">An International Model to Predict Recurrent Cardiovascular Disease</title><author><name sortKey="Wilson, Peter W F" sort="Wilson, Peter W F" uniqKey="Wilson P" first="Peter W. F." last="Wilson">Peter W. F. Wilson</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><inist:fA14 i1="01"><s1>Atlanta VA Medical Center and Cardiology Division, Emory University School of Medicine</s1><s2>Atlanta, Ga</s2><s3>USA</s3><sZ>1 aut.</sZ></inist:fA14><country>États-Unis</country><wicri:noRegion>Atlanta, Ga</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="D Agostino, Ralph" sort="D Agostino, Ralph" uniqKey="D Agostino R" first="Ralph" last="D'Agostino">Ralph D'Agostino</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><inist:fA14 i1="02"><s1>Statistics and Consulting Unit, Boston University</s1><s2>Boston, Mass</s2><s3>USA</s3><sZ>2 aut.</sZ></inist:fA14><country>États-Unis</country><wicri:noRegion>Boston, Mass</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Bhatt, Deepak L" sort="Bhatt, Deepak L" uniqKey="Bhatt D" first="Deepak L." last="Bhatt">Deepak L. Bhatt</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><inist:fA14 i1="03"><s1>VA Boston Healthcare System, Brigham & Women's Hospital, and Harvard Medical School</s1><s2>Boston, Mass</s2><s3>USA</s3><sZ>3 aut.</sZ></inist:fA14><country>États-Unis</country><wicri:noRegion>Boston, Mass</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Eagle, Kim" sort="Eagle, Kim" uniqKey="Eagle K" first="Kim" last="Eagle">Kim Eagle</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><inist:fA14 i1="04"><s1>University of Michigan Cardiovascular Center</s1><s2>Ann Arbor</s2><s3>USA</s3><sZ>4 aut.</sZ></inist:fA14><country>États-Unis</country><wicri:noRegion>University of Michigan Cardiovascular Center</wicri:noRegion></affiliation><affiliation wicri:level="1"><inist:fA14 i1="06"><s1>University of Michigan Cardiovascular Center</s1><s2>Ann Arbor</s2><s3>USA</s3><sZ>4 aut.</sZ></inist:fA14><country>États-Unis</country><wicri:noRegion>University of Michigan Cardiovascular Center</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Pencina, Michael J" sort="Pencina, Michael J" uniqKey="Pencina M" first="Michael J." last="Pencina">Michael J. Pencina</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><inist:fA14 i1="05"><s1>Statistics and Consulting Unit, Department of Biostatistics</s1><s2>Boston, Mass</s2><s3>USA</s3><sZ>5 aut.</sZ></inist:fA14><country>États-Unis</country><wicri:noRegion>Boston, Mass</wicri:noRegion></affiliation><affiliation wicri:level="1"><inist:fA14 i1="07"><s1>Statistics and Consulting Unit, Department of Biostatistics, Boston University</s1><s2>Mass</s2><s3>USA</s3><sZ>5 aut.</sZ></inist:fA14><country>États-Unis</country><wicri:noRegion>Mass</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Smith, Sidney C" sort="Smith, Sidney C" uniqKey="Smith S" first="Sidney C." last="Smith">Sidney C. Smith</name><affiliation wicri:level="4"><inist:fA14 i1="08"><s1>University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill</s1><s3>USA</s3><sZ>6 aut.</sZ></inist:fA14><country>États-Unis</country><placeName><settlement type="city">Chapel Hill (Caroline du Nord)</settlement><region type="state">Caroline du Nord</region></placeName><orgName type="university">Université de Caroline du Nord à Chapel Hill</orgName></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Alberts, Mark J" sort="Alberts, Mark J" uniqKey="Alberts M" first="Mark J." last="Alberts">Mark J. Alberts</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><inist:fA14 i1="09"><s1>Northwestern University Medical School</s1><s2>Chicago, Ill</s2><s3>USA</s3><sZ>7 aut.</sZ></inist:fA14><country>États-Unis</country><wicri:noRegion>Northwestern University Medical School</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Dallongeville, Jean" sort="Dallongeville, Jean" uniqKey="Dallongeville J" first="Jean" last="Dallongeville">Jean Dallongeville</name><affiliation wicri:level="3"><inist:fA14 i1="10"><s1>Institut Pasteur de Lille</s1><s2>Lille</s2><s3>FRA</s3><sZ>8 aut.</sZ></inist:fA14><country>France</country><placeName><region type="region">Hauts-de-France</region><region type="old region">Nord-Pas-de-Calais</region><settlement type="city">Lille</settlement></placeName></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Goto, Shinya" sort="Goto, Shinya" uniqKey="Goto S" first="Shinya" last="Goto">Shinya Goto</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><inist:fA14 i1="11"><s1>Department of Medicine, Tokai University School of Medicine</s1><s2>Kanagawa</s2><s3>JPN</s3><sZ>9 aut.</sZ></inist:fA14><country>Japon</country><wicri:noRegion>Kanagawa</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Hirsch, Alan T" sort="Hirsch, Alan T" uniqKey="Hirsch A" first="Alan T." last="Hirsch">Alan T. Hirsch</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><inist:fA14 i1="12"><s1>Division of Epidemiology and Community Health, University of Minnesota School of Public Health and Minneapolis Heart Institute Foundation</s1><s2>Minneapolis</s2><s3>USA</s3><sZ>10 aut.</sZ></inist:fA14><country>États-Unis</country><wicri:noRegion>Minneapolis</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Liau, Chiau Suong" sort="Liau, Chiau Suong" uniqKey="Liau C" first="Chiau-Suong" last="Liau">Chiau-Suong Liau</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><inist:fA14 i1="13"><s1>Department of Internal Medicine, National Taiwan University Hospital and School of Medicine</s1><s2>Taipei</s2><s3>TWN</s3><sZ>11 aut.</sZ></inist:fA14><country>Taïwan</country><wicri:noRegion>Taipei</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Magnus Ohman, E" sort="Magnus Ohman, E" uniqKey="Magnus Ohman E" first="E." last="Magnus Ohman">E. Magnus Ohman</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><inist:fA14 i1="14"><s1>Division of Cardiology, Duke University</s1><s2>Durham, NC</s2><s3>USA</s3><sZ>12 aut.</sZ></inist:fA14><country>États-Unis</country><wicri:noRegion>Durham, NC</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Rother, Joachim" sort="Rother, Joachim" uniqKey="Rother J" first="Joachim" last="Röther">Joachim Röther</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><inist:fA14 i1="15"><s1>Department of Neurology, Klinikum Minden</s1><s2>Minden</s2><s3>DEU</s3><sZ>13 aut.</sZ></inist:fA14><country>Allemagne</country><wicri:noRegion>Minden</wicri:noRegion><wicri:noRegion>Klinikum Minden</wicri:noRegion><wicri:noRegion>Minden</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Reid, Christopher" sort="Reid, Christopher" uniqKey="Reid C" first="Christopher" last="Reid">Christopher Reid</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><inist:fA14 i1="16"><s1>Monash University</s1><s2>Victoria</s2><s3>AUS</s3><sZ>14 aut.</sZ></inist:fA14><country>Australie</country><wicri:noRegion>Monash University</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Mas, Jean Louis" sort="Mas, Jean Louis" uniqKey="Mas J" first="Jean-Louis" last="Mas">Jean-Louis Mas</name><affiliation wicri:level="3"><inist:fA14 i1="17"><s1>Service de Neurologie, Centre Raymond Garcin, Hôpital Sainte-Anne</s1><s2>Paris</s2><s3>FRA</s3><sZ>15 aut.</sZ></inist:fA14><country>France</country><placeName><region type="region">Île-de-France</region><region type="old region">Île-de-France</region><settlement type="city">Paris</settlement></placeName></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Steg, Gabriel" sort="Steg, Gabriel" uniqKey="Steg G" first="Gabriel" last="Steg">Gabriel Steg</name><affiliation wicri:level="3"><inist:fA14 i1="18"><s1>INSERM U-698 et Université Paris VII-Denis Diderot, Hôpital Bichat-Claude Bernard</s1><s2>Paris</s2><s3>FRA</s3><sZ>16 aut.</sZ></inist:fA14><country>France</country><placeName><region type="region">Île-de-France</region><region type="old region">Île-de-France</region><settlement type="city">Paris</settlement></placeName></affiliation></author></analytic><series><title level="j" type="main">The American journal of medicine</title><title level="j" type="abbreviated">Am. j. med.</title><idno type="ISSN">0002-9343</idno><imprint><date when="2012">2012</date></imprint></series></biblStruct></sourceDesc><seriesStmt><title level="j" type="main">The American journal of medicine</title><title level="j" type="abbreviated">Am. j. med.</title><idno type="ISSN">0002-9343</idno></seriesStmt></fileDesc><profileDesc><textClass><keywords scheme="KwdEn" xml:lang="en"><term>Cardiovascular disease</term><term>International</term><term>Medicine</term><term>Models</term><term>Prediction</term><term>Predictive factor</term><term>Recurrent</term><term>Relapse</term><term>World</term></keywords><keywords scheme="Pascal" xml:lang="fr"><term>International</term><term>Monde</term><term>Modèle</term><term>Prédiction</term><term>Facteur prédictif</term><term>Récidive</term><term>Récidivant</term><term>Pathologie de l'appareil circulatoire</term><term>Médecine</term></keywords><keywords scheme="Wicri" type="topic" xml:lang="fr"><term>Médecine</term></keywords></textClass></profileDesc></teiHeader><front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en">BACKGROUND: Prediction models for cardiovascular events and cardiovascular death in patients with established cardiovascular disease are not generally available. METHODS: Participants from the prospective REduction of Atherothrombosis for Continued Health (REACH) Registry provided a global outpatient population with known cardiovascular disease at entry. Cardiovascular prediction models were estimated from the 2-year follow-up data of 49,689 participants from around the world. RESULTS: A developmental prediction model was estimated from 33,419 randomly selected participants (2394 cardiovascular events with 1029 cardiovascular deaths) from the pool of 49,689. The number of vascular beds with clinical disease, diabetes, smoking, low body mass index, history of atrial fibrillation, cardiac failure, and history of cardiovascular event(s) < 1 year before baseline examination increased risk of a subsequent cardiovascular event. Statin (hazard ratio 0.75; 95% confidence interval, 0.69-0.82) and acetylsalicylic acid therapy (hazard ratio 0.90; 95% confidence interval, 0.83-0.99) also were significantly associated with reduced risk of cardiovascular events. The prediction model was validated in the remaining 16,270 REACH subjects (1172 cardiovascular events, 494 cardiovascular deaths). Risk of cardiovascular death was similarly estimated with the same set of risk factors. Simple algorithms were developed for prediction of overall cardiovascular events and for cardiovascular death. CONCLUSIONS: This study establishes and validates a risk model to predict secondary cardiovascular events and cardiovascular death in outpatients with established atherothrombotic disease. Traditional risk factors, burden of disease, lack of treatment, and geographic location all are related to an increased risk of subsequent cardiovascular morbidity and cardiovascular mortality.</div></front></TEI><inist><standard h6="B"><pA><fA01 i1="01" i2="1"><s0>0002-9343</s0></fA01><fA02 i1="01"><s0>AJMEAZ</s0></fA02><fA03 i2="1"><s0>Am. j. med.</s0></fA03><fA05><s2>125</s2></fA05><fA06><s2>7</s2></fA06><fA08 i1="01" i2="1" l="ENG"><s1>An International Model to Predict Recurrent Cardiovascular Disease</s1></fA08><fA11 i1="01" i2="1"><s1>WILSON (Peter W. F.)</s1></fA11><fA11 i1="02" i2="1"><s1>D'AGOSTINO (Ralph)</s1></fA11><fA11 i1="03" i2="1"><s1>BHATT (Deepak L.)</s1></fA11><fA11 i1="04" i2="1"><s1>EAGLE (Kim)</s1></fA11><fA11 i1="05" i2="1"><s1>PENCINA (Michael J.)</s1></fA11><fA11 i1="06" i2="1"><s1>SMITH (Sidney C.)</s1></fA11><fA11 i1="07" i2="1"><s1>ALBERTS (Mark J.)</s1></fA11><fA11 i1="08" i2="1"><s1>DALLONGEVILLE (Jean)</s1></fA11><fA11 i1="09" i2="1"><s1>GOTO (Shinya)</s1></fA11><fA11 i1="10" i2="1"><s1>HIRSCH (Alan T.)</s1></fA11><fA11 i1="11" i2="1"><s1>LIAU (Chiau-Suong)</s1></fA11><fA11 i1="12" i2="1"><s1>MAGNUS OHMAN (E.)</s1></fA11><fA11 i1="13" i2="1"><s1>RÖTHER (Joachim)</s1></fA11><fA11 i1="14" i2="1"><s1>REID (Christopher)</s1></fA11><fA11 i1="15" i2="1"><s1>MAS (Jean-Louis)</s1></fA11><fA11 i1="16" i2="1"><s1>STEG (Gabriel)</s1></fA11><fA14 i1="01"><s1>Atlanta VA Medical Center and Cardiology Division, Emory University School of Medicine</s1><s2>Atlanta, Ga</s2><s3>USA</s3><sZ>1 aut.</sZ></fA14><fA14 i1="02"><s1>Statistics and Consulting Unit, Boston University</s1><s2>Boston, Mass</s2><s3>USA</s3><sZ>2 aut.</sZ></fA14><fA14 i1="03"><s1>VA Boston Healthcare System, Brigham & Women's Hospital, and Harvard Medical School</s1><s2>Boston, Mass</s2><s3>USA</s3><sZ>3 aut.</sZ></fA14><fA14 i1="04"><s1>University of Michigan Cardiovascular Center</s1><s2>Ann Arbor</s2><s3>USA</s3><sZ>4 aut.</sZ></fA14><fA14 i1="05"><s1>Statistics and Consulting Unit, Department of Biostatistics</s1><s2>Boston, Mass</s2><s3>USA</s3><sZ>5 aut.</sZ></fA14><fA14 i1="06"><s1>University of Michigan Cardiovascular Center</s1><s2>Ann Arbor</s2><s3>USA</s3><sZ>4 aut.</sZ></fA14><fA14 i1="07"><s1>Statistics and Consulting Unit, Department of Biostatistics, Boston University</s1><s2>Mass</s2><s3>USA</s3><sZ>5 aut.</sZ></fA14><fA14 i1="08"><s1>University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill</s1><s3>USA</s3><sZ>6 aut.</sZ></fA14><fA14 i1="09"><s1>Northwestern University Medical School</s1><s2>Chicago, Ill</s2><s3>USA</s3><sZ>7 aut.</sZ></fA14><fA14 i1="10"><s1>Institut Pasteur de Lille</s1><s2>Lille</s2><s3>FRA</s3><sZ>8 aut.</sZ></fA14><fA14 i1="11"><s1>Department of Medicine, Tokai University School of Medicine</s1><s2>Kanagawa</s2><s3>JPN</s3><sZ>9 aut.</sZ></fA14><fA14 i1="12"><s1>Division of Epidemiology and Community Health, University of Minnesota School of Public Health and Minneapolis Heart Institute Foundation</s1><s2>Minneapolis</s2><s3>USA</s3><sZ>10 aut.</sZ></fA14><fA14 i1="13"><s1>Department of Internal Medicine, National Taiwan University Hospital and School of Medicine</s1><s2>Taipei</s2><s3>TWN</s3><sZ>11 aut.</sZ></fA14><fA14 i1="14"><s1>Division of Cardiology, Duke University</s1><s2>Durham, NC</s2><s3>USA</s3><sZ>12 aut.</sZ></fA14><fA14 i1="15"><s1>Department of Neurology, Klinikum Minden</s1><s2>Minden</s2><s3>DEU</s3><sZ>13 aut.</sZ></fA14><fA14 i1="16"><s1>Monash University</s1><s2>Victoria</s2><s3>AUS</s3><sZ>14 aut.</sZ></fA14><fA14 i1="17"><s1>Service de Neurologie, Centre Raymond Garcin, Hôpital Sainte-Anne</s1><s2>Paris</s2><s3>FRA</s3><sZ>15 aut.</sZ></fA14><fA14 i1="18"><s1>INSERM U-698 et Université Paris VII-Denis Diderot, Hôpital Bichat-Claude Bernard</s1><s2>Paris</s2><s3>FRA</s3><sZ>16 aut.</sZ></fA14><fA17 i1="01" i2="1"><s1>For the REACH Registry</s1><s3>INC</s3></fA17><fA20><s1>695-703</s1></fA20><fA21><s1>2012</s1></fA21><fA23 i1="01"><s0>ENG</s0></fA23><fA43 i1="01"><s1>INIST</s1><s2>4562</s2><s5>354000506653150150</s5></fA43><fA44><s0>0000</s0><s1>© 2012 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.</s1></fA44><fA45><s0>22 ref.</s0></fA45><fA47 i1="01" i2="1"><s0>12-0310574</s0></fA47><fA60><s1>P</s1></fA60><fA61><s0>A</s0></fA61><fA64 i1="01" i2="1"><s0>The American journal of medicine</s0></fA64><fA66 i1="01"><s0>USA</s0></fA66><fC01 i1="01" l="ENG"><s0>BACKGROUND: Prediction models for cardiovascular events and cardiovascular death in patients with established cardiovascular disease are not generally available. METHODS: Participants from the prospective REduction of Atherothrombosis for Continued Health (REACH) Registry provided a global outpatient population with known cardiovascular disease at entry. Cardiovascular prediction models were estimated from the 2-year follow-up data of 49,689 participants from around the world. RESULTS: A developmental prediction model was estimated from 33,419 randomly selected participants (2394 cardiovascular events with 1029 cardiovascular deaths) from the pool of 49,689. The number of vascular beds with clinical disease, diabetes, smoking, low body mass index, history of atrial fibrillation, cardiac failure, and history of cardiovascular event(s) < 1 year before baseline examination increased risk of a subsequent cardiovascular event. Statin (hazard ratio 0.75; 95% confidence interval, 0.69-0.82) and acetylsalicylic acid therapy (hazard ratio 0.90; 95% confidence interval, 0.83-0.99) also were significantly associated with reduced risk of cardiovascular events. The prediction model was validated in the remaining 16,270 REACH subjects (1172 cardiovascular events, 494 cardiovascular deaths). Risk of cardiovascular death was similarly estimated with the same set of risk factors. Simple algorithms were developed for prediction of overall cardiovascular events and for cardiovascular death. CONCLUSIONS: This study establishes and validates a risk model to predict secondary cardiovascular events and cardiovascular death in outpatients with established atherothrombotic disease. Traditional risk factors, burden of disease, lack of treatment, and geographic location all are related to an increased risk of subsequent cardiovascular morbidity and cardiovascular mortality.</s0></fC01><fC02 i1="01" i2="X"><s0>002B01</s0></fC02><fC03 i1="01" i2="X" l="FRE"><s0>International</s0><s5>02</s5></fC03><fC03 i1="01" i2="X" l="ENG"><s0>International</s0><s5>02</s5></fC03><fC03 i1="01" i2="X" l="SPA"><s0>Internacional</s0><s5>02</s5></fC03><fC03 i1="02" i2="X" l="FRE"><s0>Monde</s0><s2>NG</s2><s5>03</s5></fC03><fC03 i1="02" i2="X" l="ENG"><s0>World</s0><s2>NG</s2><s5>03</s5></fC03><fC03 i1="02" i2="X" l="SPA"><s0>Mundo</s0><s2>NG</s2><s5>03</s5></fC03><fC03 i1="03" i2="X" l="FRE"><s0>Modèle</s0><s5>05</s5></fC03><fC03 i1="03" i2="X" l="ENG"><s0>Models</s0><s5>05</s5></fC03><fC03 i1="03" i2="X" l="SPA"><s0>Modelo</s0><s5>05</s5></fC03><fC03 i1="04" i2="X" l="FRE"><s0>Prédiction</s0><s5>06</s5></fC03><fC03 i1="04" i2="X" l="ENG"><s0>Prediction</s0><s5>06</s5></fC03><fC03 i1="04" i2="X" l="SPA"><s0>Predicción</s0><s5>06</s5></fC03><fC03 i1="05" i2="X" l="FRE"><s0>Facteur prédictif</s0><s5>08</s5></fC03><fC03 i1="05" i2="X" l="ENG"><s0>Predictive factor</s0><s5>08</s5></fC03><fC03 i1="05" i2="X" l="SPA"><s0>Factor predictivo</s0><s5>08</s5></fC03><fC03 i1="06" i2="X" l="FRE"><s0>Récidive</s0><s5>09</s5></fC03><fC03 i1="06" i2="X" l="ENG"><s0>Relapse</s0><s5>09</s5></fC03><fC03 i1="06" i2="X" l="SPA"><s0>Recaida</s0><s5>09</s5></fC03><fC03 i1="07" i2="X" l="FRE"><s0>Récidivant</s0><s5>11</s5></fC03><fC03 i1="07" i2="X" l="ENG"><s0>Recurrent</s0><s5>11</s5></fC03><fC03 i1="07" i2="X" l="SPA"><s0>Recidivante</s0><s5>11</s5></fC03><fC03 i1="08" i2="X" l="FRE"><s0>Pathologie de l'appareil circulatoire</s0><s5>12</s5></fC03><fC03 i1="08" i2="X" l="ENG"><s0>Cardiovascular disease</s0><s5>12</s5></fC03><fC03 i1="08" i2="X" l="SPA"><s0>Aparato circulatorio patología</s0><s5>12</s5></fC03><fC03 i1="09" i2="X" l="FRE"><s0>Médecine</s0><s5>17</s5></fC03><fC03 i1="09" i2="X" l="ENG"><s0>Medicine</s0><s5>17</s5></fC03><fC03 i1="09" i2="X" l="SPA"><s0>Medicina</s0><s5>17</s5></fC03><fN21><s1>240</s1></fN21><fN44 i1="01"><s1>OTO</s1></fN44><fN82><s1>OTO</s1></fN82></pA></standard></inist><affiliations><list><country><li>Allemagne</li><li>Australie</li><li>France</li><li>Japon</li><li>Taïwan</li><li>États-Unis</li></country><region><li>Caroline du Nord</li><li>Hauts-de-France</li><li>Nord-Pas-de-Calais</li><li>Île-de-France</li></region><settlement><li>Chapel Hill (Caroline du Nord)</li><li>Lille</li><li>Paris</li></settlement><orgName><li>Université de Caroline du Nord à Chapel Hill</li></orgName></list><tree><country name="États-Unis"><noRegion><name sortKey="Wilson, Peter W F" sort="Wilson, Peter W F" uniqKey="Wilson P" first="Peter W. F." last="Wilson">Peter W. F. Wilson</name></noRegion><name sortKey="Alberts, Mark J" sort="Alberts, Mark J" uniqKey="Alberts M" first="Mark J." last="Alberts">Mark J. Alberts</name><name sortKey="Bhatt, Deepak L" sort="Bhatt, Deepak L" uniqKey="Bhatt D" first="Deepak L." last="Bhatt">Deepak L. Bhatt</name><name sortKey="D Agostino, Ralph" sort="D Agostino, Ralph" uniqKey="D Agostino R" first="Ralph" last="D'Agostino">Ralph D'Agostino</name><name sortKey="Eagle, Kim" sort="Eagle, Kim" uniqKey="Eagle K" first="Kim" last="Eagle">Kim Eagle</name><name sortKey="Eagle, Kim" sort="Eagle, Kim" uniqKey="Eagle K" first="Kim" last="Eagle">Kim Eagle</name><name sortKey="Hirsch, Alan T" sort="Hirsch, Alan T" uniqKey="Hirsch A" first="Alan T." last="Hirsch">Alan T. Hirsch</name><name sortKey="Magnus Ohman, E" sort="Magnus Ohman, E" uniqKey="Magnus Ohman E" first="E." last="Magnus Ohman">E. Magnus Ohman</name><name sortKey="Pencina, Michael J" sort="Pencina, Michael J" uniqKey="Pencina M" first="Michael J." last="Pencina">Michael J. Pencina</name><name sortKey="Pencina, Michael J" sort="Pencina, Michael J" uniqKey="Pencina M" first="Michael J." last="Pencina">Michael J. Pencina</name><name sortKey="Smith, Sidney C" sort="Smith, Sidney C" uniqKey="Smith S" first="Sidney C." last="Smith">Sidney C. Smith</name></country><country name="France"><region name="Hauts-de-France"><name sortKey="Dallongeville, Jean" sort="Dallongeville, Jean" uniqKey="Dallongeville J" first="Jean" last="Dallongeville">Jean Dallongeville</name></region><name sortKey="Mas, Jean Louis" sort="Mas, Jean Louis" uniqKey="Mas J" first="Jean-Louis" last="Mas">Jean-Louis Mas</name><name sortKey="Steg, Gabriel" sort="Steg, Gabriel" uniqKey="Steg G" first="Gabriel" last="Steg">Gabriel Steg</name></country><country name="Japon"><noRegion><name sortKey="Goto, Shinya" sort="Goto, Shinya" uniqKey="Goto S" first="Shinya" last="Goto">Shinya Goto</name></noRegion></country><country name="Taïwan"><noRegion><name sortKey="Liau, Chiau Suong" sort="Liau, Chiau Suong" uniqKey="Liau C" first="Chiau-Suong" last="Liau">Chiau-Suong Liau</name></noRegion></country><country name="Allemagne"><noRegion><name sortKey="Rother, Joachim" sort="Rother, Joachim" uniqKey="Rother J" first="Joachim" last="Röther">Joachim Röther</name></noRegion></country><country name="Australie"><noRegion><name sortKey="Reid, Christopher" sort="Reid, Christopher" uniqKey="Reid C" first="Christopher" last="Reid">Christopher Reid</name></noRegion></country></tree></affiliations></record>Pour manipuler ce document sous Unix (Dilib)
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