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Assessing the impact of future land-use changes on hydrological processes in the Elbow River watershed in southern Alberta, Canada

Identifieur interne : 001345 ( PascalFrancis/Checkpoint ); précédent : 001344; suivant : 001346

Assessing the impact of future land-use changes on hydrological processes in the Elbow River watershed in southern Alberta, Canada

Auteurs : G. N. Wijesekara [Canada] ; A. Gupta [Canada] ; C. Valeo [Canada] ; J.-G. Hasbani [Canada] ; Y. Qiao [Canada] ; P. Delaney [Canada] ; Dj. Marceau [Canada]

Source :

RBID : Pascal:12-0194512

Descripteurs français

English descriptors

Abstract

The Elbow River in southern Alberta, Canada is the source of the Glenmore reservoir, which provides drinking water to the City of Calgary. Due to the rapid population growth in Calgary, the Elbow River watershed (ERW) that covers about 1238 km2 has been under considerable pressure for land-use development over the last decade. This study was undertaken to assess the impact of potential land-use changes over the next 20 years on the hydrological processes in ERW by combining a land-use cellular automata (CA) model and the distributed physically-based MIKE-SHE/MIKE-11 hydrological model. The CA model was calibrated using four land-use maps covering the period 1985-2001 and validated against the maps of 2006 and 2010. Simulations of land-use changes were then performed from 2006 to 2031 at a five year interval; land-use based parameters were extracted from the simulated maps and transferred to MIKE-SHE/MIKE-11. MIKE-SHE was calibrated for the period 1985-1990 and validated for the period 2000-2005. The Nash and Sutcliffe coefficients of efficiency calculated between observed and simulated flow data for the calibration and validation periods are 0.56, 0.52, 0.79, and 0.75 based on different hydrometric stations respectively, indicating an acceptable level of performance of the model. Land-use changes analyzed for the period 2001-2031 reveal a 65% increase in built-up areas, 20% in rangeland/parkland, and 1% in agriculture along with a reduction of 28% in deciduous, and 6% in evergreen forest. As a result, the hydrological modeling indicates an increase of 7.3% in overland flow, and a decrease of 1%, 13.2%, and 2.3% in total evapotranspiration, baseflow, and infiltration respectively along with a decrease of the total flow by 4%. These results reveal a potential significant negative impact on the sustainability of ground/surface water supplies and groundwater storages in the future in the watershed in addition to an increased risk of flashy floods. The study also revealed that due to the complex hydrological regime existing in the study area, a comprehensive physically-based method is required to better represent the interaction between groundwater and surface water. The combined CA/MIKE-SHE models appear as a useful tool to assess the impact of land-use changes on the hydrologic cycle and to better understand the connection among the hydrologic components in the Elbow River watershed.


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<div type="abstract" xml:lang="en">The Elbow River in southern Alberta, Canada is the source of the Glenmore reservoir, which provides drinking water to the City of Calgary. Due to the rapid population growth in Calgary, the Elbow River watershed (ERW) that covers about 1238 km
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has been under considerable pressure for land-use development over the last decade. This study was undertaken to assess the impact of potential land-use changes over the next 20 years on the hydrological processes in ERW by combining a land-use cellular automata (CA) model and the distributed physically-based MIKE-SHE/MIKE-11 hydrological model. The CA model was calibrated using four land-use maps covering the period 1985-2001 and validated against the maps of 2006 and 2010. Simulations of land-use changes were then performed from 2006 to 2031 at a five year interval; land-use based parameters were extracted from the simulated maps and transferred to MIKE-SHE/MIKE-11. MIKE-SHE was calibrated for the period 1985-1990 and validated for the period 2000-2005. The Nash and Sutcliffe coefficients of efficiency calculated between observed and simulated flow data for the calibration and validation periods are 0.56, 0.52, 0.79, and 0.75 based on different hydrometric stations respectively, indicating an acceptable level of performance of the model. Land-use changes analyzed for the period 2001-2031 reveal a 65% increase in built-up areas, 20% in rangeland/parkland, and 1% in agriculture along with a reduction of 28% in deciduous, and 6% in evergreen forest. As a result, the hydrological modeling indicates an increase of 7.3% in overland flow, and a decrease of 1%, 13.2%, and 2.3% in total evapotranspiration, baseflow, and infiltration respectively along with a decrease of the total flow by 4%. These results reveal a potential significant negative impact on the sustainability of ground/surface water supplies and groundwater storages in the future in the watershed in addition to an increased risk of flashy floods. The study also revealed that due to the complex hydrological regime existing in the study area, a comprehensive physically-based method is required to better represent the interaction between groundwater and surface water. The combined CA/MIKE-SHE models appear as a useful tool to assess the impact of land-use changes on the hydrologic cycle and to better understand the connection among the hydrologic components in the Elbow River watershed.</div>
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<s0>226A01</s0>
</fC02>
<fC02 i1="05" i2="2">
<s0>226A03</s0>
</fC02>
<fC02 i1="06" i2="2">
<s0>226A02</s0>
</fC02>
<fC03 i1="01" i2="2" l="FRE">
<s0>Utilisation terrain</s0>
<s5>01</s5>
</fC03>
<fC03 i1="01" i2="2" l="ENG">
<s0>land use</s0>
<s5>01</s5>
</fC03>
<fC03 i1="01" i2="2" l="SPA">
<s0>Utilización terreno</s0>
<s5>01</s5>
</fC03>
<fC03 i1="02" i2="2" l="FRE">
<s0>Rivière</s0>
<s5>02</s5>
</fC03>
<fC03 i1="02" i2="2" l="ENG">
<s0>rivers</s0>
<s5>02</s5>
</fC03>
<fC03 i1="02" i2="2" l="SPA">
<s0>Río</s0>
<s5>02</s5>
</fC03>
<fC03 i1="03" i2="2" l="FRE">
<s0>Bassin versant</s0>
<s5>03</s5>
</fC03>
<fC03 i1="03" i2="2" l="ENG">
<s0>drainage basins</s0>
<s5>03</s5>
</fC03>
<fC03 i1="03" i2="2" l="SPA">
<s0>Cuenca</s0>
<s5>03</s5>
</fC03>
<fC03 i1="04" i2="2" l="FRE">
<s0>Réservoir</s0>
<s5>04</s5>
</fC03>
<fC03 i1="04" i2="2" l="ENG">
<s0>reservoirs</s0>
<s5>04</s5>
</fC03>
<fC03 i1="05" i2="2" l="FRE">
<s0>Eau potable</s0>
<s5>05</s5>
</fC03>
<fC03 i1="05" i2="2" l="ENG">
<s0>drinking water</s0>
<s5>05</s5>
</fC03>
<fC03 i1="05" i2="2" l="SPA">
<s0>Agua potable</s0>
<s5>05</s5>
</fC03>
<fC03 i1="06" i2="2" l="FRE">
<s0>Gestion ressource eau</s0>
<s5>06</s5>
</fC03>
<fC03 i1="06" i2="2" l="ENG">
<s0>water resource management</s0>
<s5>06</s5>
</fC03>
<fC03 i1="06" i2="2" l="SPA">
<s0>Gestión recurso agua</s0>
<s5>06</s5>
</fC03>
<fC03 i1="07" i2="2" l="FRE">
<s0>Simulation numérique</s0>
<s5>07</s5>
</fC03>
<fC03 i1="07" i2="2" l="ENG">
<s0>digital simulation</s0>
<s5>07</s5>
</fC03>
<fC03 i1="07" i2="2" l="SPA">
<s0>Simulación numérica</s0>
<s5>07</s5>
</fC03>
<fC03 i1="08" i2="2" l="FRE">
<s0>Stockage eau</s0>
<s5>08</s5>
</fC03>
<fC03 i1="08" i2="2" l="ENG">
<s0>water storage</s0>
<s5>08</s5>
</fC03>
<fC03 i1="08" i2="2" l="SPA">
<s0>Almacenamiento agua</s0>
<s5>08</s5>
</fC03>
<fC03 i1="09" i2="2" l="FRE">
<s0>Modèle</s0>
<s5>09</s5>
</fC03>
<fC03 i1="09" i2="2" l="ENG">
<s0>models</s0>
<s5>09</s5>
</fC03>
<fC03 i1="09" i2="2" l="SPA">
<s0>Modelo</s0>
<s5>09</s5>
</fC03>
<fC03 i1="10" i2="2" l="FRE">
<s0>Carte utilisation terrain</s0>
<s5>10</s5>
</fC03>
<fC03 i1="10" i2="2" l="ENG">
<s0>land use map</s0>
<s5>10</s5>
</fC03>
<fC03 i1="10" i2="2" l="SPA">
<s0>Mapa utilización suelo</s0>
<s5>10</s5>
</fC03>
<fC03 i1="11" i2="2" l="FRE">
<s0>Efficacité</s0>
<s5>12</s5>
</fC03>
<fC03 i1="11" i2="2" l="ENG">
<s0>efficiency</s0>
<s5>12</s5>
</fC03>
<fC03 i1="12" i2="2" l="FRE">
<s0>Ecoulement base</s0>
<s5>13</s5>
</fC03>
<fC03 i1="12" i2="2" l="ENG">
<s0>base flow</s0>
<s5>13</s5>
</fC03>
<fC03 i1="13" i2="2" l="FRE">
<s0>Etalonnage</s0>
<s5>14</s5>
</fC03>
<fC03 i1="13" i2="2" l="ENG">
<s0>calibration</s0>
<s5>14</s5>
</fC03>
<fC03 i1="13" i2="2" l="SPA">
<s0>Contraste</s0>
<s5>14</s5>
</fC03>
<fC03 i1="14" i2="2" l="FRE">
<s0>Performance</s0>
<s5>15</s5>
</fC03>
<fC03 i1="14" i2="2" l="ENG">
<s0>performances</s0>
<s5>15</s5>
</fC03>
<fC03 i1="15" i2="2" l="FRE">
<s0>Agriculture</s0>
<s5>16</s5>
</fC03>
<fC03 i1="15" i2="2" l="ENG">
<s0>agriculture</s0>
<s5>16</s5>
</fC03>
<fC03 i1="15" i2="2" l="SPA">
<s0>Agricultura</s0>
<s5>16</s5>
</fC03>
<fC03 i1="16" i2="2" l="FRE">
<s0>Forêt</s0>
<s5>18</s5>
</fC03>
<fC03 i1="16" i2="2" l="ENG">
<s0>forests</s0>
<s5>18</s5>
</fC03>
<fC03 i1="16" i2="2" l="SPA">
<s0>Bosque</s0>
<s5>18</s5>
</fC03>
<fC03 i1="17" i2="2" l="FRE">
<s0>Evapotranspiration</s0>
<s5>19</s5>
</fC03>
<fC03 i1="17" i2="2" l="ENG">
<s0>evapotranspiration</s0>
<s5>19</s5>
</fC03>
<fC03 i1="17" i2="2" l="SPA">
<s0>Evapotranspiración</s0>
<s5>19</s5>
</fC03>
<fC03 i1="18" i2="2" l="FRE">
<s0>Infiltration</s0>
<s5>20</s5>
</fC03>
<fC03 i1="18" i2="2" l="ENG">
<s0>infiltration</s0>
<s5>20</s5>
</fC03>
<fC03 i1="18" i2="2" l="SPA">
<s0>Infiltración</s0>
<s5>20</s5>
</fC03>
<fC03 i1="19" i2="2" l="FRE">
<s0>Eau surface</s0>
<s5>21</s5>
</fC03>
<fC03 i1="19" i2="2" l="ENG">
<s0>surface water</s0>
<s5>21</s5>
</fC03>
<fC03 i1="19" i2="2" l="SPA">
<s0>Agua superficie</s0>
<s5>21</s5>
</fC03>
<fC03 i1="20" i2="2" l="FRE">
<s0>Approvisionnement eau</s0>
<s5>22</s5>
</fC03>
<fC03 i1="20" i2="2" l="ENG">
<s0>water supply</s0>
<s5>22</s5>
</fC03>
<fC03 i1="20" i2="2" l="SPA">
<s0>Conducción de agua</s0>
<s5>22</s5>
</fC03>
<fC03 i1="21" i2="2" l="FRE">
<s0>Eau souterraine</s0>
<s5>23</s5>
</fC03>
<fC03 i1="21" i2="2" l="ENG">
<s0>ground water</s0>
<s5>23</s5>
</fC03>
<fC03 i1="21" i2="2" l="SPA">
<s0>Agua subterránea</s0>
<s5>23</s5>
</fC03>
<fC03 i1="22" i2="2" l="FRE">
<s0>Aquifère</s0>
<s5>24</s5>
</fC03>
<fC03 i1="22" i2="2" l="ENG">
<s0>aquifers</s0>
<s5>24</s5>
</fC03>
<fC03 i1="23" i2="2" l="FRE">
<s0>Rivière Elbow</s0>
<s4>INC</s4>
<s5>52</s5>
</fC03>
<fC03 i1="24" i2="2" l="FRE">
<s0>Alberta</s0>
<s2>NG</s2>
<s5>61</s5>
</fC03>
<fC03 i1="24" i2="2" l="ENG">
<s0>Alberta</s0>
<s2>NG</s2>
<s5>61</s5>
</fC03>
<fC03 i1="24" i2="2" l="SPA">
<s0>Alberta</s0>
<s2>NG</s2>
<s5>61</s5>
</fC03>
<fC07 i1="01" i2="2" l="FRE">
<s0>Canada Ouest</s0>
<s2>NG</s2>
</fC07>
<fC07 i1="01" i2="2" l="ENG">
<s0>Western Canada</s0>
<s2>NG</s2>
</fC07>
<fC07 i1="01" i2="2" l="SPA">
<s0>Canada Oeste</s0>
<s2>NG</s2>
</fC07>
<fC07 i1="02" i2="2" l="FRE">
<s0>Canada</s0>
<s2>NG</s2>
</fC07>
<fC07 i1="02" i2="2" l="ENG">
<s0>Canada</s0>
<s2>NG</s2>
</fC07>
<fC07 i1="02" i2="2" l="SPA">
<s0>Canada</s0>
<s2>NG</s2>
</fC07>
<fC07 i1="03" i2="2" l="FRE">
<s0>Amérique du Nord</s0>
</fC07>
<fC07 i1="03" i2="2" l="ENG">
<s0>North America</s0>
</fC07>
<fC07 i1="03" i2="2" l="SPA">
<s0>America del norte</s0>
</fC07>
<fN21>
<s1>149</s1>
</fN21>
</pA>
<pR>
<fA30 i1="01" i2="1" l="ENG">
<s1>Hydrology Conference 2010</s1>
<s3>San Diego USA</s3>
<s4>2010-10-11</s4>
</fA30>
</pR>
</standard>
</inist>
<affiliations>
<list>
<country>
<li>Canada</li>
</country>
<region>
<li>Alberta</li>
</region>
<settlement>
<li>Calgary</li>
</settlement>
<orgName>
<li>Université de Calgary</li>
</orgName>
</list>
<tree>
<country name="Canada">
<region name="Alberta">
<name sortKey="Wijesekara, G N" sort="Wijesekara, G N" uniqKey="Wijesekara G" first="G. N." last="Wijesekara">G. N. Wijesekara</name>
</region>
<name sortKey="Delaney, P" sort="Delaney, P" uniqKey="Delaney P" first="P." last="Delaney">P. Delaney</name>
<name sortKey="Gupta, A" sort="Gupta, A" uniqKey="Gupta A" first="A." last="Gupta">A. Gupta</name>
<name sortKey="Hasbani, J G" sort="Hasbani, J G" uniqKey="Hasbani J" first="J.-G." last="Hasbani">J.-G. Hasbani</name>
<name sortKey="Marceau, Dj" sort="Marceau, Dj" uniqKey="Marceau D" first="Dj." last="Marceau">Dj. Marceau</name>
<name sortKey="Qiao, Y" sort="Qiao, Y" uniqKey="Qiao Y" first="Y." last="Qiao">Y. Qiao</name>
<name sortKey="Valeo, C" sort="Valeo, C" uniqKey="Valeo C" first="C." last="Valeo">C. Valeo</name>
</country>
</tree>
</affiliations>
</record>

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