Climate change effects on agriculture: Economic responses to biophysical shocks
Identifieur interne : 004910 ( Main/Merge ); précédent : 004909; suivant : 004911Climate change effects on agriculture: Economic responses to biophysical shocks
Auteurs : Gerald C. Nelson ; Hugo Valin [Autriche] ; Ronald D. Sands ; Petr Havlík [Autriche] ; Helal Ahammad [Australie] ; Delphine Deryng [Royaume-Uni] ; Joshua Elliott ; Shinichiro Fujimori [Japon] ; Tomoko Hasegawa [Japon] ; Edwina Heyhoe [Australie] ; Page Kyle ; Martin Von Lampe [France] ; Hermann Lotze-Campen [Allemagne] ; Daniel Mason D Roz ; Hans Van Meijl [Pays-Bas] ; Dominique Van Der Mensbrugghe [Italie] ; Christoph Müller [Allemagne] ; Alexander Popp [Allemagne] ; Richard Robertson ; Sherman Robinson ; Erwin Schmid [Autriche] ; Christoph Schmitz [Allemagne] ; Andrzej Tabeau [Pays-Bas] ; Dirk Willenbockel [Royaume-Uni]Source :
- Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America [ 0027-8424 ] ; 2013.
Abstract
Plausible estimates of climate change impacts on agriculture require integrated use of climate, crop, and economic models. We investigate the contribution of economic models to uncertainty in this impact chain. In the nine economic models included, the direction of management intensity, area, consumption, and international trade responses to harmonized crop yield shocks from climate change are similar. However, the magnitudes differ significantly. The differences depend on model structure, in particular the specification of endogenous yield effects, land use change, and propensity to trade. These results highlight where future research on modeling climate change impacts on agriculture should focus.
Url:
DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1222465110
PubMed: 24344285
PubMed Central: 3948295
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Nelson</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="aff1">Environment and Production Technology Division,<institution>International Food Policy Research Institute</institution>, Washington,<addr-line>DC</addr-line> 20006-1002;</nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Valin, Hugo" sort="Valin, Hugo" uniqKey="Valin H" first="Hugo" last="Valin">Hugo Valin</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff2">International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis,<institution>Ecosystems Services and Management Program</institution>, A-2361 Laxenburg,<country>Austria</country>;</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">Autriche</country><wicri:regionArea># see nlm:aff country strict</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Sands, Ronald D" sort="Sands, Ronald D" uniqKey="Sands R" first="Ronald D." last="Sands">Ronald D. 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Canberra, ACT 2601,<country>Australia</country>;</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">Australie</country><wicri:regionArea># see nlm:aff country strict</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Deryng, Delphine" sort="Deryng, Delphine" uniqKey="Deryng D" first="Delphine" last="Deryng">Delphine Deryng</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff5">Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research and School of Environmental Sciences,<institution>University of East Anglia</institution>, Norwich NR4 7TJ,<country>United Kingdom</country>;</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">Royaume-Uni</country><wicri:regionArea># see nlm:aff country strict</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Elliott, Joshua" sort="Elliott, Joshua" uniqKey="Elliott J" first="Joshua" last="Elliott">Joshua Elliott</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="aff6"><institution>University of Chicago</institution> Computation Institute, Chicago,<addr-line>IL</addr-line> 60637;</nlm:aff></affiliation><affiliation><nlm:aff id="aff7"><institution>Columbia University</institution> Center for Climate Systems Research, New York,<addr-line>NY</addr-line> 10025;</nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Fujimori, Shinichiro" sort="Fujimori, Shinichiro" uniqKey="Fujimori S" first="Shinichiro" last="Fujimori">Shinichiro Fujimori</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff8">National Institute for Environmental Studies,<institution>Center for Social and Environmental Systems Research</institution>, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 305-8506,<country>Japan</country>;</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">Japon</country><wicri:regionArea># see nlm:aff country strict</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Hasegawa, Tomoko" sort="Hasegawa, Tomoko" uniqKey="Hasegawa T" first="Tomoko" last="Hasegawa">Tomoko Hasegawa</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff8">National Institute for Environmental Studies,<institution>Center for Social and Environmental Systems Research</institution>, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 305-8506,<country>Japan</country>;</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">Japon</country><wicri:regionArea># see nlm:aff country strict</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Heyhoe, Edwina" sort="Heyhoe, Edwina" uniqKey="Heyhoe E" first="Edwina" last="Heyhoe">Edwina Heyhoe</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff4"><institution>Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences</institution>, Canberra, ACT 2601,<country>Australia</country>;</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">Australie</country><wicri:regionArea># see nlm:aff country strict</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Kyle, Page" sort="Kyle, Page" uniqKey="Kyle P" first="Page" last="Kyle">Page Kyle</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="aff9">Joint Global Change Research Institute,<institution>Pacific Northwest National Laboratory</institution>, College Park,<addr-line>MD</addr-line> 20740;</nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Von Lampe, Martin" sort="Von Lampe, Martin" uniqKey="Von Lampe M" first="Martin" last="Von Lampe">Martin Von Lampe</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff10">Trade and Agriculture Directorate,<institution>Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development</institution>, 75775 Paris Cedex 16,<country>France</country>;</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">France</country><wicri:regionArea># see nlm:aff country strict</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Lotze Campen, Hermann" sort="Lotze Campen, Hermann" uniqKey="Lotze Campen H" first="Hermann" last="Lotze-Campen">Hermann Lotze-Campen</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff11"><institution>Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research</institution>, 14473 Potsdam,<country>Germany</country>;</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">Allemagne</country><wicri:regionArea># see nlm:aff country strict</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Mason D Roz, Daniel" sort="Mason D Roz, Daniel" uniqKey="Mason D Roz D" first="Daniel" last="Mason D Roz">Daniel Mason D Roz</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="aff1">Environment and Production Technology Division,<institution>International Food Policy Research Institute</institution>, Washington,<addr-line>DC</addr-line> 20006-1002;</nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Van Meijl, Hans" sort="Van Meijl, Hans" uniqKey="Van Meijl H" first="Hans" last="Van Meijl">Hans Van Meijl</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff12">LEI (Agricultural Economics Research Institute), Wageningen University and Research Centre, 2585 DB, The Hague, The Netherlands;</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">Pays-Bas</country><wicri:regionArea>LEI (Agricultural Economics Research Institute), Wageningen University and Research Centre, 2585 DB, The Hague</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>The Hague</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Van Der Mensbrugghe, Dominique" sort="Van Der Mensbrugghe, Dominique" uniqKey="Van Der Mensbrugghe D" first="Dominique" last="Van Der Mensbrugghe">Dominique Van Der Mensbrugghe</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff13">Agricultural Development Economics Division,<institution>Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations</institution>, I-00153 Rome,<country>Italy</country>;</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">Italie</country><wicri:regionArea># see nlm:aff country strict</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Muller, Christoph" sort="Muller, Christoph" uniqKey="Muller C" first="Christoph" last="Müller">Christoph Müller</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff11"><institution>Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research</institution>, 14473 Potsdam,<country>Germany</country>;</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">Allemagne</country><wicri:regionArea># see nlm:aff country strict</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Popp, Alexander" sort="Popp, Alexander" uniqKey="Popp A" first="Alexander" last="Popp">Alexander Popp</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff11"><institution>Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research</institution>, 14473 Potsdam,<country>Germany</country>;</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">Allemagne</country><wicri:regionArea># see nlm:aff country strict</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Robertson, Richard" sort="Robertson, Richard" uniqKey="Robertson R" first="Richard" last="Robertson">Richard Robertson</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="aff1">Environment and Production Technology Division,<institution>International Food Policy Research Institute</institution>, Washington,<addr-line>DC</addr-line> 20006-1002;</nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Robinson, Sherman" sort="Robinson, Sherman" uniqKey="Robinson S" first="Sherman" last="Robinson">Sherman Robinson</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="aff1">Environment and Production Technology Division,<institution>International Food Policy Research Institute</institution>, Washington,<addr-line>DC</addr-line> 20006-1002;</nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Schmid, Erwin" sort="Schmid, Erwin" uniqKey="Schmid E" first="Erwin" last="Schmid">Erwin Schmid</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff wicri:cut="; and" id="aff14"><institution>University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences, Vienna</institution>, 1180 Vienna,<country>Austria</country></nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">Autriche</country><wicri:regionArea># see nlm:aff country strict</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Schmitz, Christoph" sort="Schmitz, Christoph" uniqKey="Schmitz C" first="Christoph" last="Schmitz">Christoph Schmitz</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff11"><institution>Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research</institution>, 14473 Potsdam,<country>Germany</country>;</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">Allemagne</country><wicri:regionArea># see nlm:aff country strict</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Tabeau, Andrzej" sort="Tabeau, Andrzej" uniqKey="Tabeau A" first="Andrzej" last="Tabeau">Andrzej Tabeau</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff12">LEI (Agricultural Economics Research Institute), Wageningen University and Research Centre, 2585 DB, The Hague, The Netherlands;</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">Pays-Bas</country><wicri:regionArea>LEI (Agricultural Economics Research Institute), Wageningen University and Research Centre, 2585 DB, The Hague</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>The Hague</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Willenbockel, Dirk" sort="Willenbockel, Dirk" uniqKey="Willenbockel D" first="Dirk" last="Willenbockel">Dirk Willenbockel</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff15"><institution>Institute of Development Studies</institution>, University of Sussex, Brighton BN1 9RE,<country>United Kingdom</country></nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">Royaume-Uni</country><wicri:regionArea># see nlm:aff country strict</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author></titleStmt><publicationStmt><idno type="wicri:source">PMC</idno><idno type="pmid">24344285</idno><idno type="pmc">3948295</idno><idno type="url">http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3948295</idno><idno type="RBID">PMC:3948295</idno><idno type="doi">10.1073/pnas.1222465110</idno><date when="2013">2013</date><idno type="wicri:Area/Pmc/Corpus">001B90</idno><idno type="wicri:explorRef" wicri:stream="Pmc" wicri:step="Corpus" wicri:corpus="PMC">001B90</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/Pmc/Curation">001A48</idno><idno type="wicri:explorRef" wicri:stream="Pmc" wicri:step="Curation">001A48</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/Pmc/Checkpoint">001C11</idno><idno type="wicri:explorRef" wicri:stream="Pmc" wicri:step="Checkpoint">001C11</idno><idno 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Nelson</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="aff1">Environment and Production Technology Division,<institution>International Food Policy Research Institute</institution>, Washington,<addr-line>DC</addr-line> 20006-1002;</nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Valin, Hugo" sort="Valin, Hugo" uniqKey="Valin H" first="Hugo" last="Valin">Hugo Valin</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff2">International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis,<institution>Ecosystems Services and Management Program</institution>, A-2361 Laxenburg,<country>Austria</country>;</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">Autriche</country><wicri:regionArea># see nlm:aff country strict</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Sands, Ronald D" sort="Sands, Ronald D" uniqKey="Sands R" first="Ronald D." last="Sands">Ronald D. Sands</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="aff3">Resource and Rural Economics Division, Economic Research Service,<institution>US Department of Agriculture</institution>, Washington,<addr-line>DC</addr-line> 20250;</nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Havlik, Petr" sort="Havlik, Petr" uniqKey="Havlik P" first="Petr" last="Havlík">Petr Havlík</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff2">International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis,<institution>Ecosystems Services and Management Program</institution>, A-2361 Laxenburg,<country>Austria</country>;</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">Autriche</country><wicri:regionArea># see nlm:aff country strict</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Ahammad, Helal" sort="Ahammad, Helal" uniqKey="Ahammad H" first="Helal" last="Ahammad">Helal Ahammad</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff4"><institution>Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences</institution>, Canberra, ACT 2601,<country>Australia</country>;</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">Australie</country><wicri:regionArea># see nlm:aff country strict</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Deryng, Delphine" sort="Deryng, Delphine" uniqKey="Deryng D" first="Delphine" last="Deryng">Delphine Deryng</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff5">Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research and School of Environmental Sciences,<institution>University of East Anglia</institution>, Norwich NR4 7TJ,<country>United Kingdom</country>;</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">Royaume-Uni</country><wicri:regionArea># see nlm:aff country strict</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Elliott, Joshua" sort="Elliott, Joshua" uniqKey="Elliott J" first="Joshua" last="Elliott">Joshua Elliott</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="aff6"><institution>University of Chicago</institution> Computation Institute, Chicago,<addr-line>IL</addr-line> 60637;</nlm:aff></affiliation><affiliation><nlm:aff id="aff7"><institution>Columbia University</institution> Center for Climate Systems Research, New York,<addr-line>NY</addr-line> 10025;</nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Fujimori, Shinichiro" sort="Fujimori, Shinichiro" uniqKey="Fujimori S" first="Shinichiro" last="Fujimori">Shinichiro Fujimori</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff8">National Institute for Environmental Studies,<institution>Center for Social and Environmental Systems Research</institution>, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 305-8506,<country>Japan</country>;</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">Japon</country><wicri:regionArea># see nlm:aff country strict</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Hasegawa, Tomoko" sort="Hasegawa, Tomoko" uniqKey="Hasegawa T" first="Tomoko" last="Hasegawa">Tomoko Hasegawa</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff8">National Institute for Environmental Studies,<institution>Center for Social and Environmental Systems Research</institution>, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 305-8506,<country>Japan</country>;</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">Japon</country><wicri:regionArea># see nlm:aff country strict</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Heyhoe, Edwina" sort="Heyhoe, Edwina" uniqKey="Heyhoe E" first="Edwina" last="Heyhoe">Edwina Heyhoe</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff4"><institution>Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences</institution>, Canberra, ACT 2601,<country>Australia</country>;</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">Australie</country><wicri:regionArea># see nlm:aff country strict</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Kyle, Page" sort="Kyle, Page" uniqKey="Kyle P" first="Page" last="Kyle">Page Kyle</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="aff9">Joint Global Change Research Institute,<institution>Pacific Northwest National Laboratory</institution>, College Park,<addr-line>MD</addr-line> 20740;</nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Von Lampe, Martin" sort="Von Lampe, Martin" uniqKey="Von Lampe M" first="Martin" last="Von Lampe">Martin Von Lampe</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff10">Trade and Agriculture Directorate,<institution>Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development</institution>, 75775 Paris Cedex 16,<country>France</country>;</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">France</country><wicri:regionArea># see nlm:aff country strict</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Lotze Campen, Hermann" sort="Lotze Campen, Hermann" uniqKey="Lotze Campen H" first="Hermann" last="Lotze-Campen">Hermann Lotze-Campen</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff11"><institution>Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research</institution>, 14473 Potsdam,<country>Germany</country>;</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">Allemagne</country><wicri:regionArea># see nlm:aff country strict</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Mason D Roz, Daniel" sort="Mason D Roz, Daniel" uniqKey="Mason D Roz D" first="Daniel" last="Mason D Roz">Daniel Mason D Roz</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="aff1">Environment and Production Technology Division,<institution>International Food Policy Research Institute</institution>, Washington,<addr-line>DC</addr-line> 20006-1002;</nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Van Meijl, Hans" sort="Van Meijl, Hans" uniqKey="Van Meijl H" first="Hans" last="Van Meijl">Hans Van Meijl</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff12">LEI (Agricultural Economics Research Institute), Wageningen University and Research Centre, 2585 DB, The Hague, The Netherlands;</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">Pays-Bas</country><wicri:regionArea>LEI (Agricultural Economics Research Institute), Wageningen University and Research Centre, 2585 DB, The Hague</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>The Hague</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Van Der Mensbrugghe, Dominique" sort="Van Der Mensbrugghe, Dominique" uniqKey="Van Der Mensbrugghe D" first="Dominique" last="Van Der Mensbrugghe">Dominique Van Der Mensbrugghe</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff13">Agricultural Development Economics Division,<institution>Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations</institution>, I-00153 Rome,<country>Italy</country>;</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">Italie</country><wicri:regionArea># see nlm:aff country strict</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Muller, Christoph" sort="Muller, Christoph" uniqKey="Muller C" first="Christoph" last="Müller">Christoph Müller</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff11"><institution>Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research</institution>, 14473 Potsdam,<country>Germany</country>;</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">Allemagne</country><wicri:regionArea># see nlm:aff country strict</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Popp, Alexander" sort="Popp, Alexander" uniqKey="Popp A" first="Alexander" last="Popp">Alexander Popp</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff11"><institution>Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research</institution>, 14473 Potsdam,<country>Germany</country>;</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">Allemagne</country><wicri:regionArea># see nlm:aff country strict</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Robertson, Richard" sort="Robertson, Richard" uniqKey="Robertson R" first="Richard" last="Robertson">Richard Robertson</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="aff1">Environment and Production Technology Division,<institution>International Food Policy Research Institute</institution>, Washington,<addr-line>DC</addr-line> 20006-1002;</nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Robinson, Sherman" sort="Robinson, Sherman" uniqKey="Robinson S" first="Sherman" last="Robinson">Sherman Robinson</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="aff1">Environment and Production Technology Division,<institution>International Food Policy Research Institute</institution>, Washington,<addr-line>DC</addr-line> 20006-1002;</nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Schmid, Erwin" sort="Schmid, Erwin" uniqKey="Schmid E" first="Erwin" last="Schmid">Erwin Schmid</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff wicri:cut="; and" id="aff14"><institution>University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences, Vienna</institution>, 1180 Vienna,<country>Austria</country></nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">Autriche</country><wicri:regionArea># see nlm:aff country strict</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Schmitz, Christoph" sort="Schmitz, Christoph" uniqKey="Schmitz C" first="Christoph" last="Schmitz">Christoph Schmitz</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff11"><institution>Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research</institution>, 14473 Potsdam,<country>Germany</country>;</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">Allemagne</country><wicri:regionArea># see nlm:aff country strict</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Tabeau, Andrzej" sort="Tabeau, Andrzej" uniqKey="Tabeau A" first="Andrzej" last="Tabeau">Andrzej Tabeau</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff12">LEI (Agricultural Economics Research Institute), Wageningen University and Research Centre, 2585 DB, The Hague, The Netherlands;</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">Pays-Bas</country><wicri:regionArea>LEI (Agricultural Economics Research Institute), Wageningen University and Research Centre, 2585 DB, The Hague</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>The Hague</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Willenbockel, Dirk" sort="Willenbockel, Dirk" uniqKey="Willenbockel D" first="Dirk" last="Willenbockel">Dirk Willenbockel</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff15"><institution>Institute of Development Studies</institution>, University of Sussex, Brighton BN1 9RE,<country>United Kingdom</country></nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">Royaume-Uni</country><wicri:regionArea># see nlm:aff country strict</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author></analytic><series><title level="j">Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America</title><idno type="ISSN">0027-8424</idno><idno type="eISSN">1091-6490</idno><imprint><date when="2013">2013</date></imprint></series></biblStruct></sourceDesc></fileDesc><profileDesc><textClass></textClass></profileDesc></teiHeader><front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en"><title>Significance</title><p>Plausible estimates of climate change impacts on agriculture require integrated use of climate, crop, and economic models. We investigate the contribution of economic models to uncertainty in this impact chain. In the nine economic models included, the direction of management intensity, area, consumption, and international trade responses to harmonized crop yield shocks from climate change are similar. However, the magnitudes differ significantly. The differences depend on model structure, in particular the specification of endogenous yield effects, land use change, and propensity to trade. These results highlight where future research on modeling climate change impacts on agriculture should focus.</p></div></front></TEI></record>Pour manipuler ce document sous Unix (Dilib)
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