Regional methods for trend detection: Assessing field significance and regional consistency
Identifieur interne : 008750 ( Main/Exploration ); précédent : 008749; suivant : 008751Regional methods for trend detection: Assessing field significance and regional consistency
Auteurs : B. Renard [Australie] ; M. Lang [France] ; P. Bois [France] ; A. Dupeyrat [France] ; O. Mestre [France] ; H. Niel [France] ; E. Sauquet [France] ; C. Prudhomme ; S. Parey [France] ; E. Paquet [France] ; L. Neppel [France] ; J. Gailhard [France]Source :
- Water Resources Research [ 0043-1397 ] ; 2008-08.
Descripteurs français
- Wicri :
English descriptors
- KwdEn :
- Actual levels, Actual test level, Alps, Andreassian, Annual flow, Annual maxima, Annual minima, Annual number, Areal, Base flow, Basque region, Bayesian analysis, Binomial approximation, Binomial distribution, Bootstrap, Bootstrap procedure, Bootstrapped data, Case study, Catchment, Clear signal, Climate change, Climatic, Column vector, Common years, Conservative test, Consistent changes, Consistent trend, Copula, Copula methods, Critical percentage, Critical value, Daily discharge series, Data series, Data sets, Dependence increases, Dependence matrix, Dependence structure, Dependence structures, Dependent data, Dependent sites, Different changes, Discharge data, Dominant changes, Ecole nationale, Eleventh site, Entire region, Extreme discharge, Extreme events, Extreme hydrological events, False discovery rate, Field significance, Field significance assessment, Field significance procedures, Gaussian, Gaussian copula, Gaussian copula point, Generalized change, Geographical regions, Glacier, Grenoble cedex, Groundwater control, Helpful comments, High flows, Homogeneous region, Homogeneous regions, Hydroclimatic regions, Hydrol, Hydrological, Hydrological behavior, Hydrological data, Hydrological extremes, Hydrological model, Hydrological modeling, Hydrological regime, Hydrometric stations, Iahs publ, Identical trend, Independence hypothesis, Information content, Input uncertainty, Intersite dependence, Joint normality, Laboratoire hydrosciences, Lang, Last column, Liberal test, Limited number, Matrix, Measurement problems, Mestre, Multivariate, Multivariate data, Multivariate gaussian, Multivariate gaussian distribution, National scale, Natural variability, Next section, Nominal significance level, Nonclimatic factors, Nonconsistent changes, Nonconsistent trend, Nonsignificant result, Normal score, Northern alps, Northern part, Null hypotheses, Null hypothesis, Oceanic area, Oceanic region, Original data, Other hand, Other words, Physical explanation, Positive trend, Potential trends, Preliminary attempt, Previous section, Previous sections, Pyrenees, Rainfall, Rainfall depth, Rainfall field, Rainfall fields, Ramk, Ramk statistic, Ramk test, Ramk tests, Regional change, Regional changes, Regional consistency, Regional methods, Regional scale, Regional significance level, Regional statistic, Regional statistics, Regional testing procedures, Regional tests, Regional trend, Regional trend analysis, Regional trend detection, Regional trends, Rejection rate, Rejection rates, Renard, River flow, River flow regimes, River flow series, Runoff, Runoff changes, Same river, Seasonal flow, Semiparametric approach, Several locations, Significance level, Significant change, Significant changes, Significant increase, Significant result, Significant results, Significant results number, Significant tests, Significant trend, Significant trends, Similar behavior, Simulation, Simulation method, Simulation methods, Simulation procedure multivariate gaussian, Slight increase, Snowmelt, Spatial correlation, Spatial dependence, Spatial dependence structure, Spatial variability, Stationarity, Stationarity analysis, Stationary, Stationary data, Stations number, Statistic, Statistical test, Statistical tests, Streamflow, Streamflow trends, Strong nonlinearity, Subregions, Such biases, Svensson, Synthetic data, Synthetic data sets, Trend detection, Variance, Variance matrix, Variogram range, Vosges subregion, Water resour, Watershed, Watershed behavior, Watershed hydrological behavior, Whole data.
- Teeft :
- Actual levels, Actual test level, Alps, Andreassian, Annual flow, Annual maxima, Annual minima, Annual number, Areal, Base flow, Basque region, Bayesian analysis, Binomial approximation, Binomial distribution, Bootstrap, Bootstrap procedure, Bootstrapped data, Case study, Catchment, Clear signal, Climate change, Climatic, Column vector, Common years, Conservative test, Consistent changes, Consistent trend, Copula, Copula methods, Critical percentage, Critical value, Daily discharge series, Data series, Data sets, Dependence increases, Dependence matrix, Dependence structure, Dependence structures, Dependent data, Dependent sites, Different changes, Discharge data, Dominant changes, Ecole nationale, Eleventh site, Entire region, Extreme discharge, Extreme events, Extreme hydrological events, False discovery rate, Field significance, Field significance assessment, Field significance procedures, Gaussian, Gaussian copula, Gaussian copula point, Generalized change, Geographical regions, Glacier, Grenoble cedex, Groundwater control, Helpful comments, High flows, Homogeneous region, Homogeneous regions, Hydroclimatic regions, Hydrol, Hydrological, Hydrological behavior, Hydrological data, Hydrological extremes, Hydrological model, Hydrological modeling, Hydrological regime, Hydrometric stations, Iahs publ, Identical trend, Independence hypothesis, Information content, Input uncertainty, Intersite dependence, Joint normality, Laboratoire hydrosciences, Lang, Last column, Liberal test, Limited number, Matrix, Measurement problems, Mestre, Multivariate, Multivariate data, Multivariate gaussian, Multivariate gaussian distribution, National scale, Natural variability, Next section, Nominal significance level, Nonclimatic factors, Nonconsistent changes, Nonconsistent trend, Nonsignificant result, Normal score, Northern alps, Northern part, Null hypotheses, Null hypothesis, Oceanic area, Oceanic region, Original data, Other hand, Other words, Physical explanation, Positive trend, Potential trends, Preliminary attempt, Previous section, Previous sections, Pyrenees, Rainfall, Rainfall depth, Rainfall field, Rainfall fields, Ramk, Ramk statistic, Ramk test, Ramk tests, Regional change, Regional changes, Regional consistency, Regional methods, Regional scale, Regional significance level, Regional statistic, Regional statistics, Regional testing procedures, Regional tests, Regional trend, Regional trend analysis, Regional trend detection, Regional trends, Rejection rate, Rejection rates, Renard, River flow, River flow regimes, River flow series, Runoff, Runoff changes, Same river, Seasonal flow, Semiparametric approach, Several locations, Significance level, Significant change, Significant changes, Significant increase, Significant result, Significant results, Significant results number, Significant tests, Significant trend, Significant trends, Similar behavior, Simulation, Simulation method, Simulation methods, Simulation procedure multivariate gaussian, Slight increase, Snowmelt, Spatial correlation, Spatial dependence, Spatial dependence structure, Spatial variability, Stationarity, Stationarity analysis, Stationary, Stationary data, Stations number, Statistic, Statistical test, Statistical tests, Streamflow, Streamflow trends, Strong nonlinearity, Subregions, Such biases, Svensson, Synthetic data, Synthetic data sets, Trend detection, Variance, Variance matrix, Variogram range, Vosges subregion, Water resour, Watershed, Watershed behavior, Watershed hydrological behavior, Whole data.
Abstract
This paper describes regional methods for assessing field significance and regional consistency for trend detection in hydrological extremes. Four procedures for assessing field significance are compared on the basis of Monte Carlo simulations. Then three regional tests, based on a regional variable, on the regional average Mann‐Kendall test, and a new semiparametric approach, are tested. The latter was found to be the most adequate to detect consistent changes within homogeneous hydro‐climatic regions. Finally, these procedures are applied to France, using daily discharge data arising from 195 gauging stations. No generalized change was found at the national scale on the basis of the field significance assessment of at‐site results. Hydro‐climatic regions were then defined, and the semiparametric procedure applied. Most of the regions showed no consistent change, but three exceptions were found: in the northeast flood peaks were found to increase, in the Pyrenees high and low flows showed decreasing trends, and in the Alps, earlier snowmelt‐related floods were detected, along with less severe drought and increasing runoff due to glacier melting. The trend affecting floods in the northeast was compared to changes in rainfall, using rainfall‐runoff simulation. The results showed flood trends consistent with the observed rainfall.
Url:
DOI: 10.1029/2007WR006268
Affiliations:
- Australie, France
- Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes, Languedoc-Roussillon, Midi-Pyrénées, Occitanie (région administrative), Rhône-Alpes
- Grenoble, Lyon, Montpellier, Toulouse
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level</term><term>Alps</term><term>Andreassian</term><term>Annual flow</term><term>Annual maxima</term><term>Annual minima</term><term>Annual number</term><term>Areal</term><term>Base flow</term><term>Basque region</term><term>Bayesian analysis</term><term>Binomial approximation</term><term>Binomial distribution</term><term>Bootstrap</term><term>Bootstrap procedure</term><term>Bootstrapped data</term><term>Case study</term><term>Catchment</term><term>Clear signal</term><term>Climate change</term><term>Climatic</term><term>Column vector</term><term>Common years</term><term>Conservative test</term><term>Consistent changes</term><term>Consistent trend</term><term>Copula</term><term>Copula methods</term><term>Critical percentage</term><term>Critical value</term><term>Daily discharge series</term><term>Data series</term><term>Data sets</term><term>Dependence increases</term><term>Dependence matrix</term><term>Dependence structure</term><term>Dependence structures</term><term>Dependent data</term><term>Dependent sites</term><term>Different changes</term><term>Discharge data</term><term>Dominant changes</term><term>Ecole nationale</term><term>Eleventh site</term><term>Entire region</term><term>Extreme discharge</term><term>Extreme events</term><term>Extreme hydrological events</term><term>False discovery rate</term><term>Field significance</term><term>Field significance assessment</term><term>Field significance procedures</term><term>Gaussian</term><term>Gaussian copula</term><term>Gaussian copula point</term><term>Generalized change</term><term>Geographical regions</term><term>Glacier</term><term>Grenoble cedex</term><term>Groundwater control</term><term>Helpful comments</term><term>High flows</term><term>Homogeneous region</term><term>Homogeneous regions</term><term>Hydroclimatic regions</term><term>Hydrol</term><term>Hydrological</term><term>Hydrological behavior</term><term>Hydrological data</term><term>Hydrological extremes</term><term>Hydrological model</term><term>Hydrological modeling</term><term>Hydrological regime</term><term>Hydrometric stations</term><term>Iahs publ</term><term>Identical trend</term><term>Independence hypothesis</term><term>Information content</term><term>Input uncertainty</term><term>Intersite dependence</term><term>Joint normality</term><term>Laboratoire hydrosciences</term><term>Lang</term><term>Last column</term><term>Liberal test</term><term>Limited number</term><term>Matrix</term><term>Measurement problems</term><term>Mestre</term><term>Multivariate</term><term>Multivariate data</term><term>Multivariate gaussian</term><term>Multivariate gaussian distribution</term><term>National scale</term><term>Natural variability</term><term>Next section</term><term>Nominal significance level</term><term>Nonclimatic factors</term><term>Nonconsistent changes</term><term>Nonconsistent trend</term><term>Nonsignificant result</term><term>Normal score</term><term>Northern alps</term><term>Northern part</term><term>Null hypotheses</term><term>Null hypothesis</term><term>Oceanic area</term><term>Oceanic region</term><term>Original data</term><term>Other hand</term><term>Other words</term><term>Physical explanation</term><term>Positive trend</term><term>Potential trends</term><term>Preliminary attempt</term><term>Previous section</term><term>Previous sections</term><term>Pyrenees</term><term>Rainfall</term><term>Rainfall depth</term><term>Rainfall field</term><term>Rainfall fields</term><term>Ramk</term><term>Ramk statistic</term><term>Ramk test</term><term>Ramk tests</term><term>Regional change</term><term>Regional changes</term><term>Regional consistency</term><term>Regional methods</term><term>Regional scale</term><term>Regional significance level</term><term>Regional statistic</term><term>Regional statistics</term><term>Regional testing procedures</term><term>Regional tests</term><term>Regional trend</term><term>Regional trend analysis</term><term>Regional trend detection</term><term>Regional trends</term><term>Rejection rate</term><term>Rejection rates</term><term>Renard</term><term>River flow</term><term>River flow regimes</term><term>River flow series</term><term>Runoff</term><term>Runoff changes</term><term>Same river</term><term>Seasonal flow</term><term>Semiparametric approach</term><term>Several locations</term><term>Significance level</term><term>Significant change</term><term>Significant changes</term><term>Significant increase</term><term>Significant result</term><term>Significant results</term><term>Significant results number</term><term>Significant tests</term><term>Significant trend</term><term>Significant trends</term><term>Similar behavior</term><term>Simulation</term><term>Simulation method</term><term>Simulation methods</term><term>Simulation procedure multivariate gaussian</term><term>Slight increase</term><term>Snowmelt</term><term>Spatial correlation</term><term>Spatial dependence</term><term>Spatial dependence structure</term><term>Spatial variability</term><term>Stationarity</term><term>Stationarity analysis</term><term>Stationary</term><term>Stationary data</term><term>Stations number</term><term>Statistic</term><term>Statistical test</term><term>Statistical tests</term><term>Streamflow</term><term>Streamflow trends</term><term>Strong nonlinearity</term><term>Subregions</term><term>Such biases</term><term>Svensson</term><term>Synthetic data</term><term>Synthetic data sets</term><term>Trend detection</term><term>Variance</term><term>Variance matrix</term><term>Variogram range</term><term>Vosges subregion</term><term>Water resour</term><term>Watershed</term><term>Watershed behavior</term><term>Watershed hydrological behavior</term><term>Whole data</term></keywords><keywords scheme="Teeft" xml:lang="en"><term>Actual levels</term><term>Actual test level</term><term>Alps</term><term>Andreassian</term><term>Annual flow</term><term>Annual maxima</term><term>Annual minima</term><term>Annual number</term><term>Areal</term><term>Base flow</term><term>Basque region</term><term>Bayesian analysis</term><term>Binomial approximation</term><term>Binomial distribution</term><term>Bootstrap</term><term>Bootstrap procedure</term><term>Bootstrapped data</term><term>Case study</term><term>Catchment</term><term>Clear signal</term><term>Climate change</term><term>Climatic</term><term>Column vector</term><term>Common years</term><term>Conservative test</term><term>Consistent changes</term><term>Consistent trend</term><term>Copula</term><term>Copula methods</term><term>Critical percentage</term><term>Critical value</term><term>Daily discharge series</term><term>Data series</term><term>Data sets</term><term>Dependence increases</term><term>Dependence matrix</term><term>Dependence structure</term><term>Dependence structures</term><term>Dependent data</term><term>Dependent sites</term><term>Different changes</term><term>Discharge data</term><term>Dominant changes</term><term>Ecole nationale</term><term>Eleventh site</term><term>Entire region</term><term>Extreme discharge</term><term>Extreme events</term><term>Extreme hydrological events</term><term>False discovery rate</term><term>Field significance</term><term>Field significance assessment</term><term>Field significance procedures</term><term>Gaussian</term><term>Gaussian copula</term><term>Gaussian copula point</term><term>Generalized change</term><term>Geographical regions</term><term>Glacier</term><term>Grenoble cedex</term><term>Groundwater control</term><term>Helpful comments</term><term>High flows</term><term>Homogeneous region</term><term>Homogeneous regions</term><term>Hydroclimatic regions</term><term>Hydrol</term><term>Hydrological</term><term>Hydrological behavior</term><term>Hydrological data</term><term>Hydrological extremes</term><term>Hydrological model</term><term>Hydrological modeling</term><term>Hydrological regime</term><term>Hydrometric stations</term><term>Iahs publ</term><term>Identical trend</term><term>Independence hypothesis</term><term>Information content</term><term>Input uncertainty</term><term>Intersite dependence</term><term>Joint normality</term><term>Laboratoire hydrosciences</term><term>Lang</term><term>Last column</term><term>Liberal test</term><term>Limited number</term><term>Matrix</term><term>Measurement problems</term><term>Mestre</term><term>Multivariate</term><term>Multivariate data</term><term>Multivariate gaussian</term><term>Multivariate gaussian distribution</term><term>National scale</term><term>Natural variability</term><term>Next section</term><term>Nominal significance level</term><term>Nonclimatic factors</term><term>Nonconsistent changes</term><term>Nonconsistent trend</term><term>Nonsignificant result</term><term>Normal score</term><term>Northern alps</term><term>Northern part</term><term>Null hypotheses</term><term>Null hypothesis</term><term>Oceanic area</term><term>Oceanic region</term><term>Original data</term><term>Other hand</term><term>Other words</term><term>Physical explanation</term><term>Positive trend</term><term>Potential trends</term><term>Preliminary attempt</term><term>Previous section</term><term>Previous sections</term><term>Pyrenees</term><term>Rainfall</term><term>Rainfall depth</term><term>Rainfall field</term><term>Rainfall fields</term><term>Ramk</term><term>Ramk statistic</term><term>Ramk test</term><term>Ramk tests</term><term>Regional change</term><term>Regional changes</term><term>Regional consistency</term><term>Regional methods</term><term>Regional scale</term><term>Regional significance level</term><term>Regional statistic</term><term>Regional statistics</term><term>Regional testing procedures</term><term>Regional tests</term><term>Regional trend</term><term>Regional trend analysis</term><term>Regional trend detection</term><term>Regional trends</term><term>Rejection rate</term><term>Rejection rates</term><term>Renard</term><term>River flow</term><term>River flow regimes</term><term>River flow series</term><term>Runoff</term><term>Runoff changes</term><term>Same river</term><term>Seasonal flow</term><term>Semiparametric approach</term><term>Several locations</term><term>Significance level</term><term>Significant change</term><term>Significant changes</term><term>Significant increase</term><term>Significant result</term><term>Significant results</term><term>Significant results number</term><term>Significant tests</term><term>Significant trend</term><term>Significant trends</term><term>Similar behavior</term><term>Simulation</term><term>Simulation method</term><term>Simulation methods</term><term>Simulation procedure multivariate gaussian</term><term>Slight increase</term><term>Snowmelt</term><term>Spatial correlation</term><term>Spatial dependence</term><term>Spatial dependence structure</term><term>Spatial variability</term><term>Stationarity</term><term>Stationarity analysis</term><term>Stationary</term><term>Stationary data</term><term>Stations number</term><term>Statistic</term><term>Statistical test</term><term>Statistical tests</term><term>Streamflow</term><term>Streamflow trends</term><term>Strong nonlinearity</term><term>Subregions</term><term>Such biases</term><term>Svensson</term><term>Synthetic data</term><term>Synthetic data sets</term><term>Trend detection</term><term>Variance</term><term>Variance matrix</term><term>Variogram range</term><term>Vosges subregion</term><term>Water resour</term><term>Watershed</term><term>Watershed behavior</term><term>Watershed hydrological behavior</term><term>Whole data</term></keywords><keywords scheme="Wicri" type="topic" xml:lang="fr"><term>étude de cas</term><term>Changement climatique</term><term>Statistique régionale</term><term>Simulation</term></keywords></textClass></profileDesc></teiHeader><front><div type="abstract">This paper describes regional methods for assessing field significance and regional consistency for trend detection in hydrological extremes. Four procedures for assessing field significance are compared on the basis of Monte Carlo simulations. Then three regional tests, based on a regional variable, on the regional average Mann‐Kendall test, and a new semiparametric approach, are tested. The latter was found to be the most adequate to detect consistent changes within homogeneous hydro‐climatic regions. Finally, these procedures are applied to France, using daily discharge data arising from 195 gauging stations. No generalized change was found at the national scale on the basis of the field significance assessment of at‐site results. Hydro‐climatic regions were then defined, and the semiparametric procedure applied. Most of the regions showed no consistent change, but three exceptions were found: in the northeast flood peaks were found to increase, in the Pyrenees high and low flows showed decreasing trends, and in the Alps, earlier snowmelt‐related floods were detected, along with less severe drought and increasing runoff due to glacier melting. The trend affecting floods in the northeast was compared to changes in rainfall, using rainfall‐runoff simulation. The results showed flood trends consistent with the observed rainfall.</div></front></TEI><affiliations><list><country><li>Australie</li><li>France</li></country><region><li>Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes</li><li>Languedoc-Roussillon</li><li>Midi-Pyrénées</li><li>Occitanie (région administrative)</li><li>Rhône-Alpes</li></region><settlement><li>Grenoble</li><li>Lyon</li><li>Montpellier</li><li>Toulouse</li></settlement></list><tree><noCountry><name sortKey="Prudhomme, C" sort="Prudhomme, C" uniqKey="Prudhomme C" first="C." last="Prudhomme">C. Prudhomme</name></noCountry><country name="Australie"><noRegion><name sortKey="Renard, B" sort="Renard, B" uniqKey="Renard B" first="B." last="Renard">B. Renard</name></noRegion><name sortKey="Renard, B" sort="Renard, B" uniqKey="Renard B" first="B." last="Renard">B. Renard</name><name sortKey="Renard, B" sort="Renard, B" uniqKey="Renard B" first="B." last="Renard">B. Renard</name></country><country name="France"><region name="Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes"><name sortKey="Lang, M" sort="Lang, M" uniqKey="Lang M" first="M." last="Lang">M. Lang</name></region><name sortKey="Bois, P" sort="Bois, P" uniqKey="Bois P" first="P." last="Bois">P. Bois</name><name sortKey="Dupeyrat, A" sort="Dupeyrat, A" uniqKey="Dupeyrat A" first="A." last="Dupeyrat">A. Dupeyrat</name><name sortKey="Gailhard, J" sort="Gailhard, J" uniqKey="Gailhard J" first="J." last="Gailhard">J. Gailhard</name><name sortKey="Mestre, O" sort="Mestre, O" uniqKey="Mestre O" first="O." last="Mestre">O. Mestre</name><name sortKey="Neppel, L" sort="Neppel, L" uniqKey="Neppel L" first="L." last="Neppel">L. Neppel</name><name sortKey="Niel, H" sort="Niel, H" uniqKey="Niel H" first="H." last="Niel">H. Niel</name><name sortKey="Paquet, E" sort="Paquet, E" uniqKey="Paquet E" first="E." last="Paquet">E. Paquet</name><name sortKey="Parey, S" sort="Parey, S" uniqKey="Parey S" first="S." last="Parey">S. Parey</name><name sortKey="Sauquet, E" sort="Sauquet, E" uniqKey="Sauquet E" first="E." last="Sauquet">E. Sauquet</name></country></tree></affiliations></record>Pour manipuler ce document sous Unix (Dilib)
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