Multisite flooding hazard assessment in the Upper Mississippi River
Identifieur interne : 005A64 ( Main/Exploration ); précédent : 005A63; suivant : 005A65Multisite flooding hazard assessment in the Upper Mississippi River
Auteurs : Tatiana Ghizzoni [Allemagne] ; Giorgio Roth [Italie] ; Roberto Rudari [Italie]Source :
- Journal of hydrology : (Amsterdam) [ 0022-1694 ] ; 2012.
Descripteurs français
- Pascal (Inist)
- Wicri :
- topic : Inondation.
English descriptors
- KwdEn :
Abstract
This contribution presents an assessment of the joint probability distribution able to describe multi-site multi-basin flood scenarios in a high dimensionality framework. This goal will be pursued through two different approaches: the multivariate skew-t distribution and the Student copula with arbitrary margins. While copulas have been widely used in the modeling of hydrological processes, the use of the skew-t distribution in hydrology has been only recently proposed with reference to a trivariate application (Ghizzoni et al., 2010, Adv. Water Resour., 33, 1243-1255). Both methods are here applied and discussed in a context of considerably higher dimensionality: the Upper Mississippi River floods. In fact, to enhance the characteristics of the correlation structure, eighteen nested and non-nested gauging stations were selected, with significantly different contributing areas. Such conditions represent a challenge for both the skew-t and the copula approach. In perspective, the ability of such approaches in explaining the multivariate aspects of the relevant processes is needed to specify flood hazard scenarios in terms of their intensity, extension and frequency. When this is associated to the knowledge of location, value and vulnerability of exposed elements, comprehensive flood risk scenarios can be produced, and risk cumuli quantified, for given portfolios, composed of wherever located risks.
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Geo Risks, Munich Re, Königinstrasse 107</s1><s2>80802 München</s2><s3>DEU</s3><sZ>1 aut.</sZ></inist:fA14><country>Allemagne</country><placeName><region type="land" nuts="1">Bavière</region><region type="district" nuts="2">District de Haute-Bavière</region><settlement type="city">Munich</settlement></placeName></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Roth, Giorgio" sort="Roth, Giorgio" uniqKey="Roth G" first="Giorgio" last="Roth">Giorgio Roth</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><inist:fA14 i1="02"><s1>Dipartimento di Informatica, Sistemistica e Telematica, University of Genoa, via all'Opera Pia 13</s1><s2>16145 Genova</s2><s3>ITA</s3><sZ>2 aut.</sZ></inist:fA14><country>Italie</country><wicri:noRegion>16145 Genova</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Rudari, Roberto" sort="Rudari, Roberto" uniqKey="Rudari R" first="Roberto" last="Rudari">Roberto Rudari</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><inist:fA14 i1="03"><s1>CIMA Research Foundation, via Magliotto 2</s1><s2>17100 Savona</s2><s3>ITA</s3><sZ>3 aut.</sZ></inist:fA14><country>Italie</country><wicri:noRegion>17100 Savona</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author></analytic><series><title level="j" type="main">Journal of hydrology : (Amsterdam)</title><title level="j" type="abbreviated">J. hydrol. : (Amst.)</title><idno type="ISSN">0022-1694</idno><imprint><date when="2012">2012</date></imprint></series></biblStruct></sourceDesc><seriesStmt><title level="j" type="main">Journal of hydrology : (Amsterdam)</title><title level="j" type="abbreviated">J. hydrol. : (Amst.)</title><idno type="ISSN">0022-1694</idno></seriesStmt></fileDesc><profileDesc><textClass><keywords scheme="KwdEn" xml:lang="en"><term>Mississippi River</term><term>correlation</term><term>floods</term><term>frequency</term><term>gauging</term><term>inundations</term><term>multivariate analysis</term><term>probability</term><term>water resource management</term></keywords><keywords scheme="Pascal" xml:lang="fr"><term>Inondation</term><term>Gestion ressource eau</term><term>Probabilité</term><term>Crue</term><term>Analyse multivariable</term><term>Corrélation</term><term>Jaugeage</term><term>Fréquence</term><term>Rivière Mississippi</term></keywords><keywords scheme="Wicri" type="topic" xml:lang="fr"><term>Inondation</term></keywords></textClass></profileDesc></teiHeader><front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en">This contribution presents an assessment of the joint probability distribution able to describe multi-site multi-basin flood scenarios in a high dimensionality framework. This goal will be pursued through two different approaches: the multivariate skew-t distribution and the Student copula with arbitrary margins. While copulas have been widely used in the modeling of hydrological processes, the use of the skew-t distribution in hydrology has been only recently proposed with reference to a trivariate application (Ghizzoni et al., 2010, Adv. Water Resour., 33, 1243-1255). Both methods are here applied and discussed in a context of considerably higher dimensionality: the Upper Mississippi River floods. In fact, to enhance the characteristics of the correlation structure, eighteen nested and non-nested gauging stations were selected, with significantly different contributing areas. Such conditions represent a challenge for both the skew-t and the copula approach. In perspective, the ability of such approaches in explaining the multivariate aspects of the relevant processes is needed to specify flood hazard scenarios in terms of their intensity, extension and frequency. When this is associated to the knowledge of location, value and vulnerability of exposed elements, comprehensive flood risk scenarios can be produced, and risk cumuli quantified, for given portfolios, composed of wherever located risks.</div></front></TEI><affiliations><list><country><li>Allemagne</li><li>Italie</li></country><region><li>Bavière</li><li>District de Haute-Bavière</li></region><settlement><li>Munich</li></settlement></list><tree><country name="Allemagne"><region name="Bavière"><name sortKey="Ghizzoni, Tatiana" sort="Ghizzoni, Tatiana" uniqKey="Ghizzoni T" first="Tatiana" last="Ghizzoni">Tatiana Ghizzoni</name></region></country><country name="Italie"><noRegion><name sortKey="Roth, Giorgio" sort="Roth, Giorgio" uniqKey="Roth G" first="Giorgio" last="Roth">Giorgio Roth</name></noRegion><name sortKey="Rudari, Roberto" sort="Rudari, Roberto" uniqKey="Rudari R" first="Roberto" last="Rudari">Roberto Rudari</name></country></tree></affiliations></record>Pour manipuler ce document sous Unix (Dilib)
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