Characterising performance of environmental models
Identifieur interne : 005054 ( Main/Exploration ); précédent : 005053; suivant : 005055Characterising performance of environmental models
Auteurs : Neil D. Bennett [Australie] ; Barry F. W. Croke [Australie] ; Giorgio Guariso [Italie] ; Joseph H. A. Guillaume [Australie] ; Serena H. Hamilton [Australie] ; Anthony J. Jakeman [Australie] ; Stefano Marsili-Libelli [Italie] ; Lachlan T. H. Newham [Australie] ; John P. Norton [Australie] ; Charles Perrin [France] ; Suzanne A. Pierce [États-Unis] ; Barbara Robson [Australie] ; Ralf Seppelt [Allemagne] ; Alexey A. Voinov [Pays-Bas] ; Brian D. Fath [États-Unis, Autriche] ; Vazken Andreassian [France]Source :
- Environmental modelling & software [ 1364-8152 ] ; 2013.
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Abstract
In order to use environmental models effectively for management and decision-making, it is vital to establish an appropriate level of confidence in their performance. This paper reviews techniques available across various fields for characterising the performance of environmental models with focus on numerical, graphical and qualitative methods. General classes of direct value comparison, coupling real and modelled values, preserving data patterns, indirect metrics based on parameter values, and data transformations are discussed. In practice environmental modelling requires the use and implementation of workflows that combine several methods, tailored to the model purpose and dependent upon the data and information available. A five-step procedure for performance evaluation of models is suggested, with the key elements including: (i) (re)assessment of the model's aim, scale and scope; (ii) characterisation of the data for calibration and testing; (iii) visual and other analysis to detect under- or non-modelled behaviour and to gain an overview of overall performance; (iv) selection of basic performance criteria; and (v) consideration of more advanced methods to handle problems such as systematic divergence between modelled and observed values.
Affiliations:
- Allemagne, Australie, Autriche, France, Italie, Pays-Bas, États-Unis
- District de Leipzig, Saxe (Land), Texas
- Austin (Texas), Leipzig
- Université du Texas à Austin
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A." last="Guillaume">Joseph H. A. Guillaume</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><inist:fA14 i1="01"><s1>Fenner School of Environment and Society, National Centre for Groundwater Research and Training, The Australian National University</s1><s3>AUS</s3><sZ>1 aut.</sZ><sZ>2 aut.</sZ><sZ>4 aut.</sZ><sZ>5 aut.</sZ><sZ>6 aut.</sZ><sZ>8 aut.</sZ><sZ>9 aut.</sZ></inist:fA14><country>Australie</country><wicri:noRegion>Fenner School of Environment and Society, National Centre for Groundwater Research and Training, The Australian National University</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Hamilton, Serena H" sort="Hamilton, Serena H" uniqKey="Hamilton S" first="Serena H." last="Hamilton">Serena H. Hamilton</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><inist:fA14 i1="01"><s1>Fenner School of Environment and Society, National Centre for Groundwater Research and Training, The Australian National University</s1><s3>AUS</s3><sZ>1 aut.</sZ><sZ>2 aut.</sZ><sZ>4 aut.</sZ><sZ>5 aut.</sZ><sZ>6 aut.</sZ><sZ>8 aut.</sZ><sZ>9 aut.</sZ></inist:fA14><country>Australie</country><wicri:noRegion>Fenner School of Environment and Society, National Centre for Groundwater Research and Training, The Australian National University</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Jakeman, Anthony J" sort="Jakeman, Anthony J" uniqKey="Jakeman A" first="Anthony J." last="Jakeman">Anthony J. 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H." last="Newham">Lachlan T. H. Newham</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><inist:fA14 i1="01"><s1>Fenner School of Environment and Society, National Centre for Groundwater Research and Training, The Australian National University</s1><s3>AUS</s3><sZ>1 aut.</sZ><sZ>2 aut.</sZ><sZ>4 aut.</sZ><sZ>5 aut.</sZ><sZ>6 aut.</sZ><sZ>8 aut.</sZ><sZ>9 aut.</sZ></inist:fA14><country>Australie</country><wicri:noRegion>Fenner School of Environment and Society, National Centre for Groundwater Research and Training, The Australian National University</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Norton, John P" sort="Norton, John P" uniqKey="Norton J" first="John P." last="Norton">John P. 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Bennett</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><inist:fA14 i1="01"><s1>Fenner School of Environment and Society, National Centre for Groundwater Research and Training, The Australian National University</s1><s3>AUS</s3><sZ>1 aut.</sZ><sZ>2 aut.</sZ><sZ>4 aut.</sZ><sZ>5 aut.</sZ><sZ>6 aut.</sZ><sZ>8 aut.</sZ><sZ>9 aut.</sZ></inist:fA14><country>Australie</country><wicri:noRegion>Fenner School of Environment and Society, National Centre for Groundwater Research and Training, The Australian National University</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Croke, Barry F W" sort="Croke, Barry F W" uniqKey="Croke B" first="Barry F. W." last="Croke">Barry F. W. Croke</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><inist:fA14 i1="01"><s1>Fenner School of Environment and Society, National Centre for Groundwater Research and Training, The Australian National University</s1><s3>AUS</s3><sZ>1 aut.</sZ><sZ>2 aut.</sZ><sZ>4 aut.</sZ><sZ>5 aut.</sZ><sZ>6 aut.</sZ><sZ>8 aut.</sZ><sZ>9 aut.</sZ></inist:fA14><country>Australie</country><wicri:noRegion>Fenner School of Environment and Society, National Centre for Groundwater Research and Training, The Australian National University</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Guariso, Giorgio" sort="Guariso, Giorgio" uniqKey="Guariso G" first="Giorgio" last="Guariso">Giorgio Guariso</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><inist:fA14 i1="02"><s1>Politecnico di Milano</s1><s3>ITA</s3><sZ>3 aut.</sZ></inist:fA14><country>Italie</country><wicri:noRegion>Politecnico di Milano</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Guillaume, Joseph H A" sort="Guillaume, Joseph H A" uniqKey="Guillaume J" first="Joseph H. A." last="Guillaume">Joseph H. A. Guillaume</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><inist:fA14 i1="01"><s1>Fenner School of Environment and Society, National Centre for Groundwater Research and Training, The Australian National University</s1><s3>AUS</s3><sZ>1 aut.</sZ><sZ>2 aut.</sZ><sZ>4 aut.</sZ><sZ>5 aut.</sZ><sZ>6 aut.</sZ><sZ>8 aut.</sZ><sZ>9 aut.</sZ></inist:fA14><country>Australie</country><wicri:noRegion>Fenner School of Environment and Society, National Centre for Groundwater Research and Training, The Australian National University</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Hamilton, Serena H" sort="Hamilton, Serena H" uniqKey="Hamilton S" first="Serena H." last="Hamilton">Serena H. Hamilton</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><inist:fA14 i1="01"><s1>Fenner School of Environment and Society, National Centre for Groundwater Research and Training, The Australian National University</s1><s3>AUS</s3><sZ>1 aut.</sZ><sZ>2 aut.</sZ><sZ>4 aut.</sZ><sZ>5 aut.</sZ><sZ>6 aut.</sZ><sZ>8 aut.</sZ><sZ>9 aut.</sZ></inist:fA14><country>Australie</country><wicri:noRegion>Fenner School of Environment and Society, National Centre for Groundwater Research and Training, The Australian National University</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Jakeman, Anthony J" sort="Jakeman, Anthony J" uniqKey="Jakeman A" first="Anthony J." last="Jakeman">Anthony J. Jakeman</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><inist:fA14 i1="01"><s1>Fenner School of Environment and Society, National Centre for Groundwater Research and Training, The Australian National University</s1><s3>AUS</s3><sZ>1 aut.</sZ><sZ>2 aut.</sZ><sZ>4 aut.</sZ><sZ>5 aut.</sZ><sZ>6 aut.</sZ><sZ>8 aut.</sZ><sZ>9 aut.</sZ></inist:fA14><country>Australie</country><wicri:noRegion>Fenner School of Environment and Society, National Centre for Groundwater Research and Training, The Australian National University</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Marsili Libelli, Stefano" sort="Marsili Libelli, Stefano" uniqKey="Marsili Libelli S" first="Stefano" last="Marsili-Libelli">Stefano Marsili-Libelli</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><inist:fA14 i1="03"><s1>Department of Systems and Computers, University of Florence</s1><s3>ITA</s3><sZ>7 aut.</sZ></inist:fA14><country>Italie</country><wicri:noRegion>Department of Systems and Computers, University of Florence</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Newham, Lachlan T H" sort="Newham, Lachlan T H" uniqKey="Newham L" first="Lachlan T. H." last="Newham">Lachlan T. H. Newham</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><inist:fA14 i1="01"><s1>Fenner School of Environment and Society, National Centre for Groundwater Research and Training, The Australian National University</s1><s3>AUS</s3><sZ>1 aut.</sZ><sZ>2 aut.</sZ><sZ>4 aut.</sZ><sZ>5 aut.</sZ><sZ>6 aut.</sZ><sZ>8 aut.</sZ><sZ>9 aut.</sZ></inist:fA14><country>Australie</country><wicri:noRegion>Fenner School of Environment and Society, National Centre for Groundwater Research and Training, The Australian National University</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Norton, John P" sort="Norton, John P" uniqKey="Norton J" first="John P." last="Norton">John P. Norton</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><inist:fA14 i1="01"><s1>Fenner School of Environment and Society, National Centre for Groundwater Research and Training, The Australian National University</s1><s3>AUS</s3><sZ>1 aut.</sZ><sZ>2 aut.</sZ><sZ>4 aut.</sZ><sZ>5 aut.</sZ><sZ>6 aut.</sZ><sZ>8 aut.</sZ><sZ>9 aut.</sZ></inist:fA14><country>Australie</country><wicri:noRegion>Fenner School of Environment and Society, National Centre for Groundwater Research and Training, The Australian National University</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Perrin, Charles" sort="Perrin, Charles" uniqKey="Perrin C" first="Charles" last="Perrin">Charles Perrin</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><inist:fA14 i1="04"><s1>IRSTEA</s1><s3>FRA</s3><sZ>10 aut.</sZ><sZ>16 aut.</sZ></inist:fA14><country>France</country><wicri:noRegion>IRSTEA</wicri:noRegion><wicri:noRegion>IRSTEA</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Pierce, Suzanne A" sort="Pierce, Suzanne A" uniqKey="Pierce S" first="Suzanne A." last="Pierce">Suzanne A. Pierce</name><affiliation wicri:level="4"><inist:fA14 i1="05"><s1>Center for International Energy and Environmental Policy, Jackson School of Geosciences, The University of Texas at Austin</s1><s3>USA</s3><sZ>11 aut.</sZ></inist:fA14><country>États-Unis</country><placeName><settlement type="city">Austin (Texas)</settlement><region type="state">Texas</region></placeName><orgName type="university">Université du Texas à Austin</orgName></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Robson, Barbara" sort="Robson, Barbara" uniqKey="Robson B" first="Barbara" last="Robson">Barbara Robson</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><inist:fA14 i1="06"><s1>CSIRO Land and Water</s1><s3>AUS</s3><sZ>12 aut.</sZ></inist:fA14><country>Australie</country><wicri:noRegion>CSIRO Land and Water</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Seppelt, Ralf" sort="Seppelt, Ralf" uniqKey="Seppelt R" first="Ralf" last="Seppelt">Ralf Seppelt</name><affiliation wicri:level="3"><inist:fA14 i1="07"><s1>UFZ - Helmholtz Centre for Environment Research, Department of Computational Landscape Ecology</s1><s2>Leipzig</s2><s3>DEU</s3><sZ>13 aut.</sZ></inist:fA14><country>Allemagne</country><placeName><region type="land" nuts="1">Saxe (Land)</region><region type="district" nuts="2">District de Leipzig</region><settlement type="city">Leipzig</settlement></placeName></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Voinov, Alexey A" sort="Voinov, Alexey A" uniqKey="Voinov A" first="Alexey A." last="Voinov">Alexey A. Voinov</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><inist:fA14 i1="08"><s1>ITC, Twente University</s1><s3>NLD</s3><sZ>14 aut.</sZ></inist:fA14><country>Pays-Bas</country><wicri:noRegion>ITC, Twente University</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Fath, Brian D" sort="Fath, Brian D" uniqKey="Fath B" first="Brian D." last="Fath">Brian D. Fath</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><inist:fA14 i1="09"><s1>Department of Biological Sciences, Towson University</s1><s3>USA</s3><sZ>15 aut.</sZ></inist:fA14><country>États-Unis</country><wicri:noRegion>Department of Biological Sciences, Towson University</wicri:noRegion></affiliation><affiliation wicri:level="1"><inist:fA14 i1="10"><s1>Advanced Systems Analysis Program, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis</s1><s3>AUT</s3><sZ>15 aut.</sZ></inist:fA14><country>Autriche</country><wicri:noRegion>Advanced Systems Analysis Program, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Andreassian, Vazken" sort="Andreassian, Vazken" uniqKey="Andreassian V" first="Vazken" last="Andreassian">Vazken Andreassian</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><inist:fA14 i1="04"><s1>IRSTEA</s1><s3>FRA</s3><sZ>10 aut.</sZ><sZ>16 aut.</sZ></inist:fA14><country>France</country><wicri:noRegion>IRSTEA</wicri:noRegion><wicri:noRegion>IRSTEA</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author></analytic><series><title level="j" type="main">Environmental modelling & software</title><title level="j" type="abbreviated">Environ. model. softw.</title><idno type="ISSN">1364-8152</idno><imprint><date when="2013">2013</date></imprint></series></biblStruct></sourceDesc><seriesStmt><title level="j" type="main">Environmental modelling & software</title><title level="j" type="abbreviated">Environ. model. softw.</title><idno type="ISSN">1364-8152</idno></seriesStmt></fileDesc><profileDesc><textClass><keywords scheme="KwdEn" xml:lang="en"><term>Development</term><term>Evaluation</term><term>Indicator</term><term>Models</term><term>Performance</term><term>Sensitivity analysis</term></keywords><keywords scheme="Pascal" xml:lang="fr"><term>Performance</term><term>Modèle</term><term>Développement</term><term>Evaluation</term><term>Indicateur</term><term>Analyse sensibilité</term></keywords></textClass></profileDesc></teiHeader><front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en">In order to use environmental models effectively for management and decision-making, it is vital to establish an appropriate level of confidence in their performance. This paper reviews techniques available across various fields for characterising the performance of environmental models with focus on numerical, graphical and qualitative methods. General classes of direct value comparison, coupling real and modelled values, preserving data patterns, indirect metrics based on parameter values, and data transformations are discussed. In practice environmental modelling requires the use and implementation of workflows that combine several methods, tailored to the model purpose and dependent upon the data and information available. A five-step procedure for performance evaluation of models is suggested, with the key elements including: (i) (re)assessment of the model's aim, scale and scope; (ii) characterisation of the data for calibration and testing; (iii) visual and other analysis to detect under- or non-modelled behaviour and to gain an overview of overall performance; (iv) selection of basic performance criteria; and (v) consideration of more advanced methods to handle problems such as systematic divergence between modelled and observed values.</div></front></TEI><affiliations><list><country><li>Allemagne</li><li>Australie</li><li>Autriche</li><li>France</li><li>Italie</li><li>Pays-Bas</li><li>États-Unis</li></country><region><li>District de Leipzig</li><li>Saxe (Land)</li><li>Texas</li></region><settlement><li>Austin (Texas)</li><li>Leipzig</li></settlement><orgName><li>Université du Texas à Austin</li></orgName></list><tree><country name="Australie"><noRegion><name sortKey="Bennett, Neil D" sort="Bennett, Neil D" uniqKey="Bennett N" first="Neil D." last="Bennett">Neil D. Bennett</name></noRegion><name sortKey="Croke, Barry F W" sort="Croke, Barry F W" uniqKey="Croke B" first="Barry F. W." last="Croke">Barry F. W. Croke</name><name sortKey="Guillaume, Joseph H A" sort="Guillaume, Joseph H A" uniqKey="Guillaume J" first="Joseph H. A." last="Guillaume">Joseph H. A. Guillaume</name><name sortKey="Hamilton, Serena H" sort="Hamilton, Serena H" uniqKey="Hamilton S" first="Serena H." last="Hamilton">Serena H. Hamilton</name><name sortKey="Jakeman, Anthony J" sort="Jakeman, Anthony J" uniqKey="Jakeman A" first="Anthony J." last="Jakeman">Anthony J. Jakeman</name><name sortKey="Newham, Lachlan T H" sort="Newham, Lachlan T H" uniqKey="Newham L" first="Lachlan T. H." last="Newham">Lachlan T. H. Newham</name><name sortKey="Norton, John P" sort="Norton, John P" uniqKey="Norton J" first="John P." last="Norton">John P. Norton</name><name sortKey="Robson, Barbara" sort="Robson, Barbara" uniqKey="Robson B" first="Barbara" last="Robson">Barbara Robson</name></country><country name="Italie"><noRegion><name sortKey="Guariso, Giorgio" sort="Guariso, Giorgio" uniqKey="Guariso G" first="Giorgio" last="Guariso">Giorgio Guariso</name></noRegion><name sortKey="Marsili Libelli, Stefano" sort="Marsili Libelli, Stefano" uniqKey="Marsili Libelli S" first="Stefano" last="Marsili-Libelli">Stefano Marsili-Libelli</name></country><country name="France"><noRegion><name sortKey="Perrin, Charles" sort="Perrin, Charles" uniqKey="Perrin C" first="Charles" last="Perrin">Charles Perrin</name></noRegion><name sortKey="Andreassian, Vazken" sort="Andreassian, Vazken" uniqKey="Andreassian V" first="Vazken" last="Andreassian">Vazken Andreassian</name></country><country name="États-Unis"><region name="Texas"><name sortKey="Pierce, Suzanne A" sort="Pierce, Suzanne A" uniqKey="Pierce S" first="Suzanne A." last="Pierce">Suzanne A. Pierce</name></region><name sortKey="Fath, Brian D" sort="Fath, Brian D" uniqKey="Fath B" first="Brian D." last="Fath">Brian D. Fath</name></country><country name="Allemagne"><region name="Saxe (Land)"><name sortKey="Seppelt, Ralf" sort="Seppelt, Ralf" uniqKey="Seppelt R" first="Ralf" last="Seppelt">Ralf Seppelt</name></region></country><country name="Pays-Bas"><noRegion><name sortKey="Voinov, Alexey A" sort="Voinov, Alexey A" uniqKey="Voinov A" first="Alexey A." last="Voinov">Alexey A. Voinov</name></noRegion></country><country name="Autriche"><noRegion><name sortKey="Fath, Brian D" sort="Fath, Brian D" uniqKey="Fath B" first="Brian D." last="Fath">Brian D. Fath</name></noRegion></country></tree></affiliations></record>Pour manipuler ce document sous Unix (Dilib)
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