Spatial distribution and range expansion of the Tawny Coster butterfly, Acraea terpsicore (Linnaeus, 1758) (Lepidoptera: Nymphalidae), in South‐East Asia and Australia
Identifieur interne : 002264 ( Istex/Corpus ); précédent : 002263; suivant : 002265Spatial distribution and range expansion of the Tawny Coster butterfly, Acraea terpsicore (Linnaeus, 1758) (Lepidoptera: Nymphalidae), in South‐East Asia and Australia
Auteurs : Michael F. Braby ; Cléo Bertelsmeier ; Chris Sanderson ; Brian M. ThistletonSource :
- Insect Conservation and Diversity [ 1752-458X ] ; 2014-03.
Abstract
Documenting the range size and range boundaries of species, and understanding the factors determining changes in these spatial components, is crucial given current rates of anthropogenic climate change and habitat loss. Here, we document the establishment of the acraeine butterfly, Acraea terpsicore, in South‐East Asia (Indonesian islands south of Malay Peninsula, and Timor) and Australia for the first time. We estimate its rate of colonisation and potential for further range expansion in the Indo‐Australian region according to bioclimatic niche models. We modelled the potential distribution of the species in the Indo‐Australian region under current climatic conditions and in 2050 following climate change. The bioclimatic niche models were based on five different modelling techniques, three global circulation models (GCMs) and two CO2 emission scenarios (SRES), yielding 30 individual models that were combined in a consensus model. Acraea terpsicore became established in Indo‐China (Thailand) during the 1980s and since that time it has spread to other parts of South‐East Asia. It was first recorded on the Australian mainland in the Northern Territory in April 2012 and within a few months of detection was found to occur at six locations, with an estimated extent of occurrence of 4000 km2. Thus, the range size of A. terpsicore has expanded by approximately 6000 km across the equator (c. 32 degrees latitude) in 28 years, with an average rate of colonisation (from Thailand to Australia) of 200 km year−1 (range: 170–230 km year−1). The bioclimatic niche models identified additional regions with favourable climatic conditions, and within Australia it is likely to occupy coastal and subcoastal savannah woodlands of the entire monsoon tropics, indicating potential for further range expansion. Moreover, the species' potential range is likely to increase with climate change. We hypothesise that habitat modification, particularly rapid deforestation of tropical forest in South‐East during the past three decades, is a major factor accounting for the range expansion given the species' habitat preference for disturbed and open degraded areas. Climate change may be a contributing factor but is unlikely the sole determinant given the spatial area involved and rate of spread.
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DOI: 10.1111/icad.12038
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Braby</name><affiliation><mods:affiliation>Department of Land Resource Management, Palmerston, NT, Australia</mods:affiliation></affiliation><affiliation><mods:affiliation>School of Biological Sciences, The Australian National University, ACT, Canberra, Australia</mods:affiliation></affiliation><affiliation><mods:affiliation>E-mail: michael.braby@nt.gov.au</mods:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Bertelsmeier, Cleo" sort="Bertelsmeier, Cleo" uniqKey="Bertelsmeier C" first="Cléo" last="Bertelsmeier">Cléo Bertelsmeier</name><affiliation><mods:affiliation>Ecologie, Systématique & Evolution, UMR CNRS 8079, Université Paris Sud XI, Orsa, France</mods:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Sanderson, Chris" sort="Sanderson, Chris" uniqKey="Sanderson C" first="Chris" last="Sanderson">Chris Sanderson</name><affiliation><mods:affiliation>Environmental Resources Management Australia, ACT, Canberra, Australia</mods:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Thistleton, Brian M" sort="Thistleton, Brian M" uniqKey="Thistleton B" first="Brian M." last="Thistleton">Brian M. 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Braby</name><affiliation><mods:affiliation>Department of Land Resource Management, Palmerston, NT, Australia</mods:affiliation></affiliation><affiliation><mods:affiliation>School of Biological Sciences, The Australian National University, ACT, Canberra, Australia</mods:affiliation></affiliation><affiliation><mods:affiliation>E-mail: michael.braby@nt.gov.au</mods:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Bertelsmeier, Cleo" sort="Bertelsmeier, Cleo" uniqKey="Bertelsmeier C" first="Cléo" last="Bertelsmeier">Cléo Bertelsmeier</name><affiliation><mods:affiliation>Ecologie, Systématique & Evolution, UMR CNRS 8079, Université Paris Sud XI, Orsa, France</mods:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Sanderson, Chris" sort="Sanderson, Chris" uniqKey="Sanderson C" first="Chris" last="Sanderson">Chris Sanderson</name><affiliation><mods:affiliation>Environmental Resources Management Australia, ACT, Canberra, Australia</mods:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Thistleton, Brian M" sort="Thistleton, Brian M" uniqKey="Thistleton B" first="Brian M." last="Thistleton">Brian M. Thistleton</name><affiliation><mods:affiliation>Plant Industries, Department of Primary Industry and Fisheries, NT, Darwin, Australia</mods:affiliation></affiliation></author></analytic><monogr></monogr><series><title level="j" type="main">Insect Conservation and Diversity</title><title level="j" type="alt">INSECT CONSERVATION AND DIVERSITY</title><idno type="ISSN">1752-458X</idno><idno type="eISSN">1752-4598</idno><imprint><biblScope unit="vol">7</biblScope><biblScope unit="issue">2</biblScope><biblScope unit="page" from="132">132</biblScope><biblScope unit="page" to="143">143</biblScope><biblScope unit="page-count">12</biblScope><date type="published" when="2014-03">2014-03</date></imprint><idno type="ISSN">1752-458X</idno></series></biblStruct></sourceDesc><seriesStmt><idno type="ISSN">1752-458X</idno></seriesStmt></fileDesc><profileDesc><textClass></textClass></profileDesc></teiHeader><front><div type="abstract">Documenting the range size and range boundaries of species, and understanding the factors determining changes in these spatial components, is crucial given current rates of anthropogenic climate change and habitat loss. Here, we document the establishment of the acraeine butterfly, Acraea terpsicore, in South‐East Asia (Indonesian islands south of Malay Peninsula, and Timor) and Australia for the first time. We estimate its rate of colonisation and potential for further range expansion in the Indo‐Australian region according to bioclimatic niche models. We modelled the potential distribution of the species in the Indo‐Australian region under current climatic conditions and in 2050 following climate change. The bioclimatic niche models were based on five different modelling techniques, three global circulation models (GCMs) and two CO2 emission scenarios (SRES), yielding 30 individual models that were combined in a consensus model. Acraea terpsicore became established in Indo‐China (Thailand) during the 1980s and since that time it has spread to other parts of South‐East Asia. It was first recorded on the Australian mainland in the Northern Territory in April 2012 and within a few months of detection was found to occur at six locations, with an estimated extent of occurrence of 4000 km2. Thus, the range size of A. terpsicore has expanded by approximately 6000 km across the equator (c. 32 degrees latitude) in 28 years, with an average rate of colonisation (from Thailand to Australia) of 200 km year−1 (range: 170–230 km year−1). The bioclimatic niche models identified additional regions with favourable climatic conditions, and within Australia it is likely to occupy coastal and subcoastal savannah woodlands of the entire monsoon tropics, indicating potential for further range expansion. Moreover, the species' potential range is likely to increase with climate change. We hypothesise that habitat modification, particularly rapid deforestation of tropical forest in South‐East during the past three decades, is a major factor accounting for the range expansion given the species' habitat preference for disturbed and open degraded areas. Climate change may be a contributing factor but is unlikely the sole determinant given the spatial area involved and rate of spread.</div></front></TEI><istex><corpusName>wiley</corpusName><editor><json:item><name>Karsten Schonrogge</name></json:item><json:item><name>Fiona Christie</name></json:item></editor><author><json:item><name>Michael F. 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Here, we document the establishment of the acraeine butterfly, Acraea terpsicore, in South‐East Asia (Indonesian islands south of Malay Peninsula, and Timor) and Australia for the first time. We estimate its rate of colonisation and potential for further range expansion in the Indo‐Australian region according to bioclimatic niche models. We modelled the potential distribution of the species in the Indo‐Australian region under current climatic conditions and in 2050 following climate change. The bioclimatic niche models were based on five different modelling techniques, three global circulation models (GCMs) and two CO2 emission scenarios (SRES), yielding 30 individual models that were combined in a consensus model. Acraea terpsicore became established in Indo‐China (Thailand) during the 1980s and since that time it has spread to other parts of South‐East Asia. It was first recorded on the Australian mainland in the Northern Territory in April 2012 and within a few months of detection was found to occur at six locations, with an estimated extent of occurrence of 4000 km2. Thus, the range size of A. terpsicore has expanded by approximately 6000 km across the equator (c. 32 degrees latitude) in 28 years, with an average rate of colonisation (from Thailand to Australia) of 200 km year−1 (range: 170–230 km year−1). The bioclimatic niche models identified additional regions with favourable climatic conditions, and within Australia it is likely to occupy coastal and subcoastal savannah woodlands of the entire monsoon tropics, indicating potential for further range expansion. Moreover, the species' potential range is likely to increase with climate change. We hypothesise that habitat modification, particularly rapid deforestation of tropical forest in South‐East during the past three decades, is a major factor accounting for the range expansion given the species' habitat preference for disturbed and open degraded areas. 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Braby, Department of Land Resource Management, PO Box 496, Palmerston NT 0831, Australia. E‐mail michael.braby@nt.gov.au</affiliation></author><author xml:id="author-0001"><persName><forename type="first">Cléo</forename><surname>Bertelsmeier</surname></persName><affiliation><orgName>Ecologie, Systématique & Evolution</orgName><orgName>UMR CNRS 8079</orgName><orgName>Université Paris Sud XI</orgName><address><settlement type="city">Orsa</settlement><country key="FR">France</country></address></affiliation></author><author xml:id="author-0002"><persName><forename type="first">Chris</forename><surname>Sanderson</surname></persName><affiliation><orgName>Environmental Resources Management Australia</orgName><address><settlement type="city">Canberra</settlement><region>ACT</region><country key="AU">Australia</country></address></affiliation></author><author xml:id="author-0003"><persName><forename type="first">Brian M.</forename><surname>Thistleton</surname></persName><affiliation><orgName>Plant Industries</orgName><orgName>Department of Primary Industry and Fisheries</orgName><address><settlement type="city">Darwin</settlement><region>NT</region><country key="AU">Australia</country></address></affiliation></author><editor xml:id="editor-0004"><persName><forename type="first">Karsten</forename><surname>Schonrogge</surname></persName></editor><editor xml:id="editor-0005"><persName><forename type="first">Fiona</forename><surname>Christie</surname></persName></editor><idno type="istex">B90708BB44622426863156EB5FC53C6E95F64531</idno><idno type="ark">ark:/67375/WNG-FW8LNJD1-7</idno><idno type="DOI">10.1111/icad.12038</idno><idno type="unit">ICAD12038</idno><idno type="toTypesetVersion">file:ICAD.ICAD12038.pdf</idno></analytic><monogr><title level="j" type="main">Insect Conservation and Diversity</title><title level="j" type="alt">INSECT CONSERVATION AND DIVERSITY</title><idno type="pISSN">1752-458X</idno><idno type="eISSN">1752-4598</idno><idno type="book-DOI">10.1111/(ISSN)1752-4598</idno><idno type="book-part-DOI">10.1111/icad.2014.7.issue-2</idno><idno type="product">ICAD</idno><imprint><biblScope unit="vol">7</biblScope><biblScope unit="issue">2</biblScope><biblScope unit="page" from="132">132</biblScope><biblScope unit="page" to="143">143</biblScope><biblScope unit="page-count">12</biblScope><date type="published" when="2014-03"></date></imprint></monogr></biblStruct></sourceDesc></fileDesc><profileDesc><abstract style="main" xml:id="icad12038-abs-0001"><head>Abstract</head><p><list xml:id="icad12038-list-0001" style="1"><item>Documenting the range size and range boundaries of species, and understanding the factors determining changes in these spatial components, is crucial given current rates of anthropogenic climate change and habitat loss. Here, we document the establishment of the acraeine butterfly, <hi rend="italic">Acraea terpsicore</hi>, in South‐East Asia (Indonesian islands south of Malay Peninsula, and Timor) and Australia for the first time. We estimate its rate of colonisation and potential for further range expansion in the Indo‐Australian region according to bioclimatic niche models.</item><item>We modelled the potential distribution of the species in the Indo‐Australian region under current climatic conditions and in 2050 following climate change. The bioclimatic niche models were based on five different modelling techniques, three global circulation models (<hi rend="fc">GCM</hi>s) and two <hi rend="fc">CO</hi><hi rend="subscript">2</hi> emission scenarios (<hi rend="fc">SRES</hi>), yielding 30 individual models that were combined in a consensus model.</item><item><hi rend="italic">Acraea terpsicore</hi> became established in Indo‐China (Thailand) during the 1980s and since that time it has spread to other parts of South‐East Asia. It was first recorded on the Australian mainland in the Northern Territory in April 2012 and within a few months of detection was found to occur at six locations, with an estimated extent of occurrence of 4000 km<hi rend="superscript">2</hi>. Thus, the range size of <hi rend="italic">A. terpsicore</hi> has expanded by approximately 6000 km across the equator (c. 32 degrees latitude) in 28 years, with an average rate of colonisation (from Thailand to Australia) of 200 km year<hi rend="superscript">−1</hi> (range: 170–230 km year<hi rend="superscript">−1</hi>).</item><item>The bioclimatic niche models identified additional regions with favourable climatic conditions, and within Australia it is likely to occupy coastal and subcoastal savannah woodlands of the entire monsoon tropics, indicating potential for further range expansion. Moreover, the species' potential range is likely to increase with climate change.</item><item>We hypothesise that habitat modification, particularly rapid deforestation of tropical forest in South‐East during the past three decades, is a major factor accounting for the range expansion given the species' habitat preference for disturbed and open degraded areas. Climate change may be a contributing factor but is unlikely the sole determinant given the spatial area involved and rate of spread.</item></list></p></abstract><textClass><keywords><term xml:id="icad12038-kwd-0001">Bioclimatic niche modelling</term><term xml:id="icad12038-kwd-0002">biogeography</term><term xml:id="icad12038-kwd-0003">biological invasion</term><term xml:id="icad12038-kwd-0004">climate change</term><term xml:id="icad12038-kwd-0005">consensus model</term><term xml:id="icad12038-kwd-0006">invasive species</term></keywords><keywords rend="articleCategory"><term>Original Article</term></keywords><keywords rend="tocHeading1"><term>Original Articles</term></keywords></textClass><langUsage><language ident="en"></language></langUsage></profileDesc></teiHeader></istex:fulltextTEI></fulltext><metadata><istex:metadataXml wicri:clean="Wiley, elements deleted: body"><istex:xmlDeclaration>version="1.0" encoding="UTF-8" standalone="yes"</istex:xmlDeclaration><istex:document><component type="serialArticle" version="2.0" xml:id="icad12038" xml:lang="en"><header><publicationMeta level="product"><doi origin="wiley" registered="yes">10.1111/(ISSN)1752-4598</doi><issn type="print">1752-458X</issn><issn type="electronic">1752-4598</issn><idGroup><id type="product" value="ICAD"></id></idGroup><titleGroup><title sort="INSECT CONSERVATION AND DIVERSITY" type="main">Insect Conservation and Diversity</title><title type="short">Insect Conserv Divers</title></titleGroup></publicationMeta><publicationMeta level="part" position="20"><doi origin="wiley">10.1111/icad.2014.7.issue-2</doi><copyright ownership="thirdParty">Copyright © 2014 The Royal Entomological Society</copyright><numberingGroup><numbering type="journalVolume" number="7">7</numbering><numbering type="journalIssue">2</numbering></numberingGroup><coverDate startDate="2014-03">March 2014</coverDate></publicationMeta><publicationMeta level="unit" position="40" status="forIssue" type="article"><doi>10.1111/icad.12038</doi><idGroup><id type="unit" value="ICAD12038"></id></idGroup><countGroup><count number="12" type="pageTotal"></count></countGroup><titleGroup><title type="articleCategory">Original Article</title><title type="tocHeading1"><i>Original Articles</i></title></titleGroup><copyright ownership="thirdParty">© 2013 The Royal Entomological Society</copyright><eventGroup><event date="2013-04-04" type="manuscriptAccepted"></event><event agent="SPS" date="2013-04-19" type="xmlCreated"></event><event type="xmlConverted" agent="Converter:WILEY_ML3G_TO_WILEY_ML3GV2 version:3.3.0 mode:FullText" date="2014-03-14"></event><event type="publishedOnlineEarlyUnpaginated" date="2013-05-22"></event><event type="firstOnline" date="2013-05-22"></event><event type="publishedOnlineFinalForm" date="2014-03-14"></event><event type="xmlConverted" agent="Converter:WML3G_To_WML3G version:4.6.4 mode:FullText" date="2015-10-08"></event></eventGroup><numberingGroup><numbering type="pageFirst">132</numbering><numbering type="pageLast">143</numbering></numberingGroup><correspondenceTo>Correspondence: Michael F. Braby, Department of Land Resource Management, PO Box 496, Palmerston NT 0831, Australia. E‐mail <email>michael.braby@nt.gov.au</email></correspondenceTo><linkGroup><link type="toTypesetVersion" href="file:ICAD.ICAD12038.pdf"></link></linkGroup></publicationMeta><contentMeta><titleGroup><title type="main">Spatial distribution and range expansion of the Tawny Coster butterfly, <i>Acraea terpsicore</i> (Linnaeus, 1758) (Lepidoptera: Nymphalidae), in South‐East Asia and Australia</title><title type="shortAuthors"><i>Michael F. Braby</i> et al.</title></titleGroup><creators><creator affiliationRef="#icad12038-aff-0001 #icad12038-aff-0002" corresponding="yes" creatorRole="author" xml:id="icad12038-cr-0001"><personName><givenNames>Michael F.</givenNames> <familyName>Braby</familyName></personName></creator><creator affiliationRef="#icad12038-aff-0003" creatorRole="author" xml:id="icad12038-cr-0002"><personName><givenNames>Cléo</givenNames> <familyName>Bertelsmeier</familyName></personName></creator><creator affiliationRef="#icad12038-aff-0004" creatorRole="author" xml:id="icad12038-cr-0003"><personName><givenNames>Chris</givenNames> <familyName>Sanderson</familyName></personName></creator><creator affiliationRef="#icad12038-aff-0005" creatorRole="author" xml:id="icad12038-cr-0004"><personName><givenNames>Brian M.</givenNames> <familyName>Thistleton</familyName></personName></creator><creator creatorRole="editor" xml:id="icad12038-cr-0005"><personName><givenNames>Karsten</givenNames> <familyName>Schonrogge</familyName></personName></creator><creator creatorRole="editor" xml:id="icad12038-cr-0006"><personName><givenNames>Fiona</givenNames> <familyName>Christie</familyName></personName></creator></creators><affiliationGroup><affiliation countryCode="AU" type="organization" xml:id="icad12038-aff-0001"><orgName>Department of Land Resource Management</orgName> <address><city>Palmerston</city> <countryPart>NT</countryPart> <country>Australia</country></address></affiliation><affiliation countryCode="AU" type="organization" xml:id="icad12038-aff-0002"><orgDiv>School of Biological Sciences</orgDiv> <orgName>The Australian National University</orgName> <address><city>Canberra</city> <countryPart>ACT</countryPart> <country>Australia</country></address></affiliation><affiliation countryCode="FR" type="organization" xml:id="icad12038-aff-0003"><orgDiv>Ecologie, Systématique & Evolution</orgDiv> <orgDiv>UMR CNRS 8079</orgDiv> <orgName>Université Paris Sud XI</orgName> <address><city>Orsa</city> <country>France</country></address></affiliation><affiliation countryCode="AU" type="organization" xml:id="icad12038-aff-0004"><orgName>Environmental Resources Management Australia</orgName> <address><city>Canberra</city> <countryPart>ACT</countryPart> <country>Australia</country></address></affiliation><affiliation countryCode="AU" type="organization" xml:id="icad12038-aff-0005"><orgDiv>Plant Industries</orgDiv> <orgName>Department of Primary Industry and Fisheries</orgName> <address><city>Darwin</city> <countryPart>NT</countryPart> <country>Australia</country></address></affiliation></affiliationGroup><keywordGroup type="author"><keyword xml:id="icad12038-kwd-0001">Bioclimatic niche modelling</keyword><keyword xml:id="icad12038-kwd-0002">biogeography</keyword><keyword xml:id="icad12038-kwd-0003">biological invasion</keyword><keyword xml:id="icad12038-kwd-0004">climate change</keyword><keyword xml:id="icad12038-kwd-0005">consensus model</keyword><keyword xml:id="icad12038-kwd-0006">invasive species</keyword></keywordGroup><fundingInfo><fundingAgency>Région Ile‐de‐France</fundingAgency><fundingNumber>03‐2010/GV‐DIM ASTREA</fundingNumber></fundingInfo><supportingInformation><supportingInfoItem><mediaResource alt="supporting" mimeType="application/msexcel" href="urn-x:wiley:1752458X:media:icad12038:icad12038-sup-0001-AppendixS1"></mediaResource><caption><b>Appendix S1.</b> Records of <i>Acraea terpsicore</i> in South‐East Asia (south of Thailand).</caption></supportingInfoItem></supportingInformation><abstractGroup><abstract type="main" xml:id="icad12038-abs-0001"><title type="main">Abstract</title><p><list formatted="paragraph" style="1" xml:id="icad12038-list-0001"><listItem>Documenting the range size and range boundaries of species, and understanding the factors determining changes in these spatial components, is crucial given current rates of anthropogenic climate change and habitat loss. Here, we document the establishment of the acraeine butterfly, <i>Acraea terpsicore</i>, in South‐East Asia (Indonesian islands south of Malay Peninsula, and Timor) and Australia for the first time. We estimate its rate of colonisation and potential for further range expansion in the Indo‐Australian region according to bioclimatic niche models.</listItem><listItem>We modelled the potential distribution of the species in the Indo‐Australian region under current climatic conditions and in 2050 following climate change. The bioclimatic niche models were based on five different modelling techniques, three global circulation models (<fc>GCM</fc>s) and two <fc>CO</fc><sub>2</sub> emission scenarios (<fc>SRES</fc>), yielding 30 individual models that were combined in a consensus model.</listItem><listItem><i>Acraea terpsicore</i> became established in Indo‐China (Thailand) during the 1980s and since that time it has spread to other parts of South‐East Asia. It was first recorded on the Australian mainland in the Northern Territory in April 2012 and within a few months of detection was found to occur at six locations, with an estimated extent of occurrence of 4000 km<sup>2</sup>. Thus, the range size of <i>A. terpsicore</i> has expanded by approximately 6000 km across the equator (c. 32 degrees latitude) in 28 years, with an average rate of colonisation (from Thailand to Australia) of 200 km year<sup>−1</sup> (range: 170–230 km year<sup>−1</sup>).</listItem><listItem>The bioclimatic niche models identified additional regions with favourable climatic conditions, and within Australia it is likely to occupy coastal and subcoastal savannah woodlands of the entire monsoon tropics, indicating potential for further range expansion. Moreover, the species' potential range is likely to increase with climate change.</listItem><listItem>We hypothesise that habitat modification, particularly rapid deforestation of tropical forest in South‐East during the past three decades, is a major factor accounting for the range expansion given the species' habitat preference for disturbed and open degraded areas. Climate change may be a contributing factor but is unlikely the sole determinant given the spatial area involved and rate of spread.</listItem></list></p></abstract></abstractGroup></contentMeta></header></component></istex:document></istex:metadataXml><mods version="3.6"><titleInfo lang="en"><title>Spatial distribution and range expansion of the Tawny Coster butterfly, Acraea terpsicore (Linnaeus, 1758) (Lepidoptera: Nymphalidae), in South‐East Asia and Australia</title></titleInfo><titleInfo type="alternative" contentType="CDATA" lang="en"><title>Spatial distribution and range expansion of the Tawny Coster butterfly, Acraea terpsicore (Linnaeus, 1758) (Lepidoptera: Nymphalidae), in South‐East Asia and Australia</title></titleInfo><name type="personal"><namePart type="given">Michael F.</namePart><namePart type="family">Braby</namePart><affiliation>Department of Land Resource Management, Palmerston, NT, Australia</affiliation><affiliation>School of Biological Sciences, The Australian National University, ACT, Canberra, Australia</affiliation><affiliation>E-mail: michael.braby@nt.gov.au</affiliation><role><roleTerm type="text">author</roleTerm></role></name><name type="personal"><namePart type="given">Cléo</namePart><namePart type="family">Bertelsmeier</namePart><affiliation>Ecologie, Systématique & Evolution, UMR CNRS 8079, Université Paris Sud XI, Orsa, France</affiliation><role><roleTerm type="text">author</roleTerm></role></name><name type="personal"><namePart type="given">Chris</namePart><namePart type="family">Sanderson</namePart><affiliation>Environmental Resources Management Australia, ACT, Canberra, Australia</affiliation><role><roleTerm type="text">author</roleTerm></role></name><name type="personal"><namePart type="given">Brian M.</namePart><namePart type="family">Thistleton</namePart><affiliation>Plant Industries, Department of Primary Industry and Fisheries, NT, Darwin, Australia</affiliation><role><roleTerm type="text">author</roleTerm></role></name><name type="personal"><namePart type="given">Karsten</namePart><namePart type="family">Schonrogge</namePart><role><roleTerm type="text">editor</roleTerm></role></name><name type="personal"><namePart type="given">Fiona</namePart><namePart type="family">Christie</namePart><role><roleTerm type="text">editor</roleTerm></role></name><typeOfResource>text</typeOfResource><genre type="article" displayLabel="article" authority="ISTEX" authorityURI="https://content-type.data.istex.fr" valueURI="https://content-type.data.istex.fr/ark:/67375/XTP-6N5SZHKN-D">article</genre><originInfo><publisher>Blackwell Publishing Ltd</publisher><dateIssued encoding="w3cdtf">2014-03</dateIssued><dateCreated encoding="w3cdtf">2013-04-19</dateCreated><dateValid encoding="w3cdtf">2013-04-04</dateValid><copyrightDate encoding="w3cdtf">2014</copyrightDate></originInfo><language><languageTerm type="code" authority="rfc3066">en</languageTerm><languageTerm type="code" authority="iso639-2b">eng</languageTerm></language><abstract>Documenting the range size and range boundaries of species, and understanding the factors determining changes in these spatial components, is crucial given current rates of anthropogenic climate change and habitat loss. Here, we document the establishment of the acraeine butterfly, Acraea terpsicore, in South‐East Asia (Indonesian islands south of Malay Peninsula, and Timor) and Australia for the first time. We estimate its rate of colonisation and potential for further range expansion in the Indo‐Australian region according to bioclimatic niche models. We modelled the potential distribution of the species in the Indo‐Australian region under current climatic conditions and in 2050 following climate change. The bioclimatic niche models were based on five different modelling techniques, three global circulation models (GCMs) and two CO2 emission scenarios (SRES), yielding 30 individual models that were combined in a consensus model. Acraea terpsicore became established in Indo‐China (Thailand) during the 1980s and since that time it has spread to other parts of South‐East Asia. It was first recorded on the Australian mainland in the Northern Territory in April 2012 and within a few months of detection was found to occur at six locations, with an estimated extent of occurrence of 4000 km2. Thus, the range size of A. terpsicore has expanded by approximately 6000 km across the equator (c. 32 degrees latitude) in 28 years, with an average rate of colonisation (from Thailand to Australia) of 200 km year−1 (range: 170–230 km year−1). The bioclimatic niche models identified additional regions with favourable climatic conditions, and within Australia it is likely to occupy coastal and subcoastal savannah woodlands of the entire monsoon tropics, indicating potential for further range expansion. Moreover, the species' potential range is likely to increase with climate change. We hypothesise that habitat modification, particularly rapid deforestation of tropical forest in South‐East during the past three decades, is a major factor accounting for the range expansion given the species' habitat preference for disturbed and open degraded areas. Climate change may be a contributing factor but is unlikely the sole determinant given the spatial area involved and rate of spread.</abstract><note type="additional physical form">Appendix S1. Records of Acraea terpsicore in South‐East Asia (south of Thailand).</note><note type="funding">Région Ile‐de‐France - No. 03‐2010/GV‐DIM ASTREA; </note><subject><genre>keywords</genre><topic>Bioclimatic niche modelling</topic><topic>biogeography</topic><topic>biological invasion</topic><topic>climate change</topic><topic>consensus model</topic><topic>invasive species</topic></subject><relatedItem type="host"><titleInfo><title>Insect Conservation and Diversity</title></titleInfo><titleInfo type="abbreviated"><title>Insect Conserv Divers</title></titleInfo><genre type="journal" authority="ISTEX" authorityURI="https://publication-type.data.istex.fr" valueURI="https://publication-type.data.istex.fr/ark:/67375/JMC-0GLKJH51-B">journal</genre><subject><genre>article-category</genre><topic>Original Article</topic></subject><identifier type="ISSN">1752-458X</identifier><identifier type="eISSN">1752-4598</identifier><identifier type="DOI">10.1111/(ISSN)1752-4598</identifier><identifier type="PublisherID">ICAD</identifier><part><date>2014</date><detail type="volume"><caption>vol.</caption><number>7</number></detail><detail type="issue"><caption>no.</caption><number>2</number></detail><extent unit="pages"><start>132</start><end>143</end><total>12</total></extent></part></relatedItem><identifier type="istex">B90708BB44622426863156EB5FC53C6E95F64531</identifier><identifier type="ark">ark:/67375/WNG-FW8LNJD1-7</identifier><identifier type="DOI">10.1111/icad.12038</identifier><identifier type="ArticleID">ICAD12038</identifier><accessCondition type="use and reproduction" contentType="copyright">Copyright © 2014 The Royal Entomological Society© 2013 The Royal Entomological Society</accessCondition><recordInfo><recordContentSource authority="ISTEX" authorityURI="https://loaded-corpus.data.istex.fr" valueURI="https://loaded-corpus.data.istex.fr/ark:/67375/XBH-L0C46X92-X">wiley</recordContentSource></recordInfo></mods><json:item><extension>json</extension><original>false</original><mimetype>application/json</mimetype><uri>https://api.istex.fr/document/B90708BB44622426863156EB5FC53C6E95F64531/metadata/json</uri></json:item></metadata><serie></serie></istex></record>Pour manipuler ce document sous Unix (Dilib)
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