Drivers of the projected changes to the Pacific Ocean equatorial circulation
Identifieur interne : 000224 ( Istex/Corpus ); précédent : 000223; suivant : 000225Drivers of the projected changes to the Pacific Ocean equatorial circulation
Auteurs : A. Sen Gupta ; A. Ganachaud ; S. Mcgregor ; J. N. Brown ; L. MuirSource :
- Geophysical Research Letters [ 0094-8276 ] ; 2012-05.
English descriptors
- KwdEn :
- Anomaly, Anonymous reviewer, Boundary currents, Boundary flow, Central basin, Circulation changes, Clim, Climate change, Climate change research centre, Climate models, Cmip3, Cmip3 models, Convergence, Eastern basin, Enso, Enso index, Equatorial, Equatorial circulation, Equatorial easterlies, Equatorial trade winds, Equatorial trades, Equatorial undercurrent, Equatorial winds, Equatorward, Equatorward flow, Ganachaud, Geophys, Global warming, Gupta, High concentrations, Individual models, Indonesian throughflow, Interannual timescales, Interannual variability, Interior pycnocline convergence, Linear response, Meridional, Meridional velocity, Mindanao, Ngcu, Northern hemisphere, Observational estimates, Other hand, Pacific ocean, Pacific ocean circulation projections, Pycnocline, Robust, Shallow water model, Significant increase, Soden, Southern hemisphere, Surface temperature, Sverdrup transport, Trade winds, Tropical circulation, Undercurrent, Upper ocean response, Vecchi, Western basin, Western boundary, Western boundary currents, Western boundary flow, Wind changes, Wind stress, Zonal, Zonal velocity.
- Teeft :
- Anomaly, Anonymous reviewer, Boundary currents, Boundary flow, Central basin, Circulation changes, Clim, Climate change, Climate change research centre, Climate models, Cmip3, Cmip3 models, Convergence, Eastern basin, Enso, Enso index, Equatorial, Equatorial circulation, Equatorial easterlies, Equatorial trade winds, Equatorial trades, Equatorial undercurrent, Equatorial winds, Equatorward, Equatorward flow, Ganachaud, Geophys, Global warming, Gupta, High concentrations, Individual models, Indonesian throughflow, Interannual timescales, Interannual variability, Interior pycnocline convergence, Linear response, Meridional, Meridional velocity, Mindanao, Ngcu, Northern hemisphere, Observational estimates, Other hand, Pacific ocean, Pacific ocean circulation projections, Pycnocline, Robust, Shallow water model, Significant increase, Soden, Southern hemisphere, Surface temperature, Sverdrup transport, Trade winds, Tropical circulation, Undercurrent, Upper ocean response, Vecchi, Western basin, Western boundary, Western boundary currents, Western boundary flow, Wind changes, Wind stress, Zonal, Zonal velocity.
Abstract
Climate models participating in the third Coupled Model Inter Comparison Project (CMIP3) suggest a significant increase in the transport of the New Guinea Coastal Undercurrent (NGCU) and the Equatorial Undercurrent (EUC, in the central and western Pacific) and a decrease in the Mindanao current and the Indonesian Throughflow. Most models also project a reduction in the strength of the equatorial Trade winds. Typically, on ENSO time scales, a weakening of the equatorial easterlies would lead to a reduction in EUC strength in the central Pacific. The strengthening of the EUC projected for longer timescales, can be explained by a robust projected intensification of the south‐easterly trade winds and an associated off‐equatorial wind‐stress curl change in the Southern Hemisphere. This drives the intensification of the NGCU and greater water input to the EUC in the west. A 1½‐layer shallow water model, driven by projected wind stress trends from the CMIP3 models demonstrates that the projected circulation changes are consistent with a purely wind driven response. While the equatorial winds weaken for both El Niño events and in the projections, the ocean response and the mechanisms driving the projected wind changes are distinct from those operating on interannual timescales.
Url:
DOI: 10.1029/2012GL051447
Links to Exploration step
ISTEX:0B80AB9BD7AE9F9BC5632B678BE125ED8F6FACFELe document en format XML
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Ganachaud</name><affiliation><mods:affiliation>LEGOS, UMR5566, Institut de Recherche pour le Développement, Nouméa, New Caledonia</mods:affiliation></affiliation><affiliation><mods:affiliation>LEGOS, UPS, OMP-PCA, Toulouse, France</mods:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Mcgregor, S" sort="Mcgregor, S" uniqKey="Mcgregor S" first="S." last="Mcgregor">S. Mcgregor</name><affiliation><mods:affiliation>Climate Change Research Centre, University of New South Wales, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia</mods:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Brown, J N" sort="Brown, J N" uniqKey="Brown J" first="J. N." last="Brown">J. N. Brown</name><affiliation><mods:affiliation>Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research, CSIRO Wealth from Oceans National Research Flagship, Hobart, Tasmania, Australia</mods:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Muir, L" sort="Muir, L" uniqKey="Muir L" first="L." last="Muir">L. 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Sen Gupta</name><affiliation><mods:affiliation>Climate Change Research Centre, University of New South Wales, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia</mods:affiliation></affiliation><affiliation><mods:affiliation>E-mail: a.sengupta@unsw.edu.au</mods:affiliation></affiliation><affiliation><mods:affiliation>E-mail: a.sengupta@unsw.edu.au</mods:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Ganachaud, A" sort="Ganachaud, A" uniqKey="Ganachaud A" first="A." last="Ganachaud">A. Ganachaud</name><affiliation><mods:affiliation>LEGOS, UMR5566, Institut de Recherche pour le Développement, Nouméa, New Caledonia</mods:affiliation></affiliation><affiliation><mods:affiliation>LEGOS, UPS, OMP-PCA, Toulouse, France</mods:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Mcgregor, S" sort="Mcgregor, S" uniqKey="Mcgregor S" first="S." last="Mcgregor">S. 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Muir</name><affiliation><mods:affiliation>Department of Geology and Geophysics, Yale University, New Haven, Connecticut, USA</mods:affiliation></affiliation></author></analytic><monogr></monogr><series><title level="j" type="main">Geophysical Research Letters</title><title level="j" type="alt">GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS</title><idno type="ISSN">0094-8276</idno><idno type="eISSN">1944-8007</idno><imprint><biblScope unit="vol">39</biblScope><biblScope unit="issue">9</biblScope><biblScope unit="page-count">7</biblScope><date type="published" when="2012-05">2012-05</date></imprint><idno type="ISSN">0094-8276</idno></series></biblStruct></sourceDesc><seriesStmt><idno type="ISSN">0094-8276</idno></seriesStmt></fileDesc><profileDesc><textClass><keywords scheme="KwdEn" xml:lang="en"><term>Anomaly</term><term>Anonymous reviewer</term><term>Boundary currents</term><term>Boundary flow</term><term>Central basin</term><term>Circulation changes</term><term>Clim</term><term>Climate change</term><term>Climate change research centre</term><term>Climate models</term><term>Cmip3</term><term>Cmip3 models</term><term>Convergence</term><term>Eastern basin</term><term>Enso</term><term>Enso index</term><term>Equatorial</term><term>Equatorial circulation</term><term>Equatorial easterlies</term><term>Equatorial trade winds</term><term>Equatorial trades</term><term>Equatorial undercurrent</term><term>Equatorial winds</term><term>Equatorward</term><term>Equatorward flow</term><term>Ganachaud</term><term>Geophys</term><term>Global warming</term><term>Gupta</term><term>High concentrations</term><term>Individual models</term><term>Indonesian throughflow</term><term>Interannual timescales</term><term>Interannual variability</term><term>Interior pycnocline convergence</term><term>Linear response</term><term>Meridional</term><term>Meridional velocity</term><term>Mindanao</term><term>Ngcu</term><term>Northern hemisphere</term><term>Observational estimates</term><term>Other hand</term><term>Pacific ocean</term><term>Pacific ocean circulation projections</term><term>Pycnocline</term><term>Robust</term><term>Shallow water model</term><term>Significant increase</term><term>Soden</term><term>Southern hemisphere</term><term>Surface temperature</term><term>Sverdrup transport</term><term>Trade winds</term><term>Tropical circulation</term><term>Undercurrent</term><term>Upper ocean response</term><term>Vecchi</term><term>Western basin</term><term>Western boundary</term><term>Western boundary currents</term><term>Western boundary flow</term><term>Wind changes</term><term>Wind stress</term><term>Zonal</term><term>Zonal velocity</term></keywords><keywords scheme="Teeft" xml:lang="en"><term>Anomaly</term><term>Anonymous reviewer</term><term>Boundary currents</term><term>Boundary flow</term><term>Central basin</term><term>Circulation changes</term><term>Clim</term><term>Climate change</term><term>Climate change research centre</term><term>Climate models</term><term>Cmip3</term><term>Cmip3 models</term><term>Convergence</term><term>Eastern basin</term><term>Enso</term><term>Enso index</term><term>Equatorial</term><term>Equatorial circulation</term><term>Equatorial easterlies</term><term>Equatorial trade winds</term><term>Equatorial trades</term><term>Equatorial undercurrent</term><term>Equatorial winds</term><term>Equatorward</term><term>Equatorward flow</term><term>Ganachaud</term><term>Geophys</term><term>Global warming</term><term>Gupta</term><term>High concentrations</term><term>Individual models</term><term>Indonesian throughflow</term><term>Interannual timescales</term><term>Interannual variability</term><term>Interior pycnocline convergence</term><term>Linear response</term><term>Meridional</term><term>Meridional velocity</term><term>Mindanao</term><term>Ngcu</term><term>Northern hemisphere</term><term>Observational estimates</term><term>Other hand</term><term>Pacific ocean</term><term>Pacific ocean circulation projections</term><term>Pycnocline</term><term>Robust</term><term>Shallow water model</term><term>Significant increase</term><term>Soden</term><term>Southern hemisphere</term><term>Surface temperature</term><term>Sverdrup transport</term><term>Trade winds</term><term>Tropical circulation</term><term>Undercurrent</term><term>Upper ocean response</term><term>Vecchi</term><term>Western basin</term><term>Western boundary</term><term>Western boundary currents</term><term>Western boundary flow</term><term>Wind changes</term><term>Wind stress</term><term>Zonal</term><term>Zonal velocity</term></keywords></textClass></profileDesc></teiHeader><front><div type="abstract">Climate models participating in the third Coupled Model Inter Comparison Project (CMIP3) suggest a significant increase in the transport of the New Guinea Coastal Undercurrent (NGCU) and the Equatorial Undercurrent (EUC, in the central and western Pacific) and a decrease in the Mindanao current and the Indonesian Throughflow. Most models also project a reduction in the strength of the equatorial Trade winds. Typically, on ENSO time scales, a weakening of the equatorial easterlies would lead to a reduction in EUC strength in the central Pacific. The strengthening of the EUC projected for longer timescales, can be explained by a robust projected intensification of the south‐easterly trade winds and an associated off‐equatorial wind‐stress curl change in the Southern Hemisphere. This drives the intensification of the NGCU and greater water input to the EUC in the west. A 1½‐layer shallow water model, driven by projected wind stress trends from the CMIP3 models demonstrates that the projected circulation changes are consistent with a purely wind driven response. While the equatorial winds weaken for both El Niño events and in the projections, the ocean response and the mechanisms driving the projected wind changes are distinct from those operating on interannual timescales.</div></front></TEI><istex><corpusName>wiley</corpusName><keywords><teeft><json:string>equatorial</json:string><json:string>ngcu</json:string><json:string>cmip3</json:string><json:string>clim</json:string><json:string>geophys</json:string><json:string>gupta</json:string><json:string>pycnocline</json:string><json:string>enso</json:string><json:string>meridional</json:string><json:string>robust</json:string><json:string>equatorward</json:string><json:string>convergence</json:string><json:string>anomaly</json:string><json:string>soden</json:string><json:string>cmip3 models</json:string><json:string>zonal</json:string><json:string>vecchi</json:string><json:string>ganachaud</json:string><json:string>pacific ocean</json:string><json:string>pacific ocean circulation projections</json:string><json:string>boundary flow</json:string><json:string>equatorial undercurrent</json:string><json:string>circulation changes</json:string><json:string>global warming</json:string><json:string>climate change</json:string><json:string>trade winds</json:string><json:string>individual models</json:string><json:string>climate models</json:string><json:string>equatorial winds</json:string><json:string>equatorial trades</json:string><json:string>eastern basin</json:string><json:string>meridional velocity</json:string><json:string>northern hemisphere</json:string><json:string>western basin</json:string><json:string>mindanao</json:string><json:string>enso index</json:string><json:string>equatorial easterlies</json:string><json:string>interannual timescales</json:string><json:string>indonesian throughflow</json:string><json:string>southern hemisphere</json:string><json:string>central basin</json:string><json:string>wind stress</json:string><json:string>equatorial circulation</json:string><json:string>wind changes</json:string><json:string>shallow water model</json:string><json:string>surface temperature</json:string><json:string>zonal velocity</json:string><json:string>tropical circulation</json:string><json:string>equatorward flow</json:string><json:string>observational estimates</json:string><json:string>western boundary</json:string><json:string>western boundary currents</json:string><json:string>interannual variability</json:string><json:string>other hand</json:string><json:string>interior pycnocline convergence</json:string><json:string>equatorial trade winds</json:string><json:string>western boundary flow</json:string><json:string>sverdrup transport</json:string><json:string>linear response</json:string><json:string>upper ocean response</json:string><json:string>boundary currents</json:string><json:string>climate change research centre</json:string><json:string>anonymous reviewer</json:string><json:string>significant increase</json:string><json:string>high concentrations</json:string><json:string>undercurrent</json:string></teeft></keywords><author><json:item><name>A. Sen Gupta</name><affiliations><json:string>Climate Change Research Centre, University of New South Wales, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia</json:string><json:string>E-mail: a.sengupta@unsw.edu.au</json:string><json:string>E-mail: a.sengupta@unsw.edu.au</json:string></affiliations></json:item><json:item><name>A. Ganachaud</name><affiliations><json:string>LEGOS, UMR5566, Institut de Recherche pour le Développement, Nouméa, New Caledonia</json:string><json:string>LEGOS, UPS, OMP-PCA, Toulouse, France</json:string></affiliations></json:item><json:item><name>S. McGregor</name><affiliations><json:string>Climate Change Research Centre, University of New South Wales, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia</json:string></affiliations></json:item><json:item><name>J. N. Brown</name><affiliations><json:string>Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research, CSIRO Wealth from Oceans National Research Flagship, Hobart, Tasmania, Australia</json:string></affiliations></json:item><json:item><name>L. Muir</name><affiliations><json:string>Department of Geology and Geophysics, Yale University, New Haven, Connecticut, USA</json:string></affiliations></json:item></author><subject><json:item><lang><json:string>eng</json:string></lang><value>CMIP3</value></json:item><json:item><lang><json:string>eng</json:string></lang><value>ENSO</value></json:item><json:item><lang><json:string>eng</json:string></lang><value>New Guinea Coastal Undercurrent</value></json:item><json:item><lang><json:string>eng</json:string></lang><value>equatorial undercurrent</value></json:item><json:item><lang><json:string>eng</json:string></lang><value>tropical Pacific</value></json:item></subject><articleId><json:string>2012GL051447</json:string></articleId><arkIstex>ark:/67375/WNG-BMPW3WCG-7</arkIstex><language><json:string>eng</json:string></language><originalGenre><json:string>article</json:string></originalGenre><abstract>Climate models participating in the third Coupled Model Inter Comparison Project (CMIP3) suggest a significant increase in the transport of the New Guinea Coastal Undercurrent (NGCU) and the Equatorial Undercurrent (EUC, in the central and western Pacific) and a decrease in the Mindanao current and the Indonesian Throughflow. Most models also project a reduction in the strength of the equatorial Trade winds. Typically, on ENSO time scales, a weakening of the equatorial easterlies would lead to a reduction in EUC strength in the central Pacific. The strengthening of the EUC projected for longer timescales, can be explained by a robust projected intensification of the south‐easterly trade winds and an associated off‐equatorial wind‐stress curl change in the Southern Hemisphere. This drives the intensification of the NGCU and greater water input to the EUC in the west. A 1½‐layer shallow water model, driven by projected wind stress trends from the CMIP3 models demonstrates that the projected circulation changes are consistent with a purely wind driven response. While the equatorial winds weaken for both El Niño events and in the projections, the ocean response and the mechanisms driving the projected wind changes are distinct from those operating on interannual timescales.</abstract><qualityIndicators><score>9.235</score><pdfWordCount>4871</pdfWordCount><pdfCharCount>30267</pdfCharCount><pdfVersion>1.6</pdfVersion><pdfPageCount>7</pdfPageCount><pdfPageSize>612 x 792 pts (letter)</pdfPageSize><refBibsNative>true</refBibsNative><abstractWordCount>197</abstractWordCount><abstractCharCount>1290</abstractCharCount><keywordCount>5</keywordCount></qualityIndicators><title>Drivers of the projected changes to the Pacific Ocean equatorial circulation</title><genre><json:string>article</json:string></genre><host><title>Geophysical Research Letters</title><language><json:string>unknown</json:string></language><doi><json:string>10.1002/(ISSN)1944-8007</json:string></doi><issn><json:string>0094-8276</json:string></issn><eissn><json:string>1944-8007</json:string></eissn><publisherId><json:string>GRL</json:string></publisherId><volume>39</volume><issue>9</issue><pages><first>n/a</first><last>n/a</last><total>7</total></pages><genre><json:string>journal</json:string></genre><subject><json:item><value>GLOBAL CHANGE</value></json:item><json:item><value>Global climate models</value></json:item><json:item><value>ATMOSPHERIC PROCESSES</value></json:item><json:item><value>Global climate models</value></json:item><json:item><value>OCEANOGRAPHY: PHYSICAL</value></json:item><json:item><value>Currents</value></json:item><json:item><value>Western boundary currents</value></json:item><json:item><value>PALEOCEANOGRAPHY</value></json:item><json:item><value>Global climate models</value></json:item><json:item><value>Oceans</value></json:item></subject></host><namedEntities><unitex><date><json:string>the 21st century</json:string><json:string>21st century</json:string><json:string>in the 20th and 21st century</json:string><json:string>2012</json:string><json:string>the 20th century</json:string><json:string>20S</json:string><json:string>20th century</json:string></date><geogName></geogName><orgName><json:string>Commonwealth Scientific</json:string><json:string>Bureau of Meteorology</json:string><json:string>NGCU</json:string><json:string>Oceans National Research Flagship, Hobart, Tasmania, Australia</json:string><json:string>Department of Geology and Geophysics</json:string><json:string>New Guinea Coastal Undercurrent</json:string><json:string>Department of Climate Change and Energy Efficiency</json:string><json:string>Climate Change Research Centre, University of New South Wales, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia</json:string><json:string>Industrial Research Organisation</json:string><json:string>CSIRO</json:string><json:string>American Geophysical Union</json:string><json:string>Climate Research, CSIRO Wealth</json:string><json:string>Yale University</json:string></orgName><orgName_funder></orgName_funder><orgName_provider></orgName_provider><persName><json:string>El Niños</json:string><json:string>Fukumori</json:string><json:string>J. N. Brown</json:string><json:string>N. Brown</json:string><json:string>A. Ganachaud</json:string><json:string>Izumo</json:string><json:string>Lee</json:string><json:string>S. McGregor</json:string><json:string>L. Muir</json:string><json:string>El Niño</json:string><json:string>Pacific Ocean</json:string><json:string>A. Sen</json:string><json:string>Antonietta Capotondi</json:string></persName><placeName><json:string>Papua New Guinea</json:string><json:string>Australia</json:string><json:string>Toulouse</json:string><json:string>France</json:string><json:string>New Haven</json:string></placeName><ref_url></ref_url><ref_bibl><json:string>Xie et al., 2010</json:string><json:string>van Oldenborgh et al., 2005</json:string><json:string>Lukas et al. [1991]</json:string><json:string>[12]</json:string><json:string>Xie et al. 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[2009]</json:string></ref_bibl><bibl></bibl></unitex></namedEntities><ark><json:string>ark:/67375/WNG-BMPW3WCG-7</json:string></ark><categories><wos><json:string>1 - science</json:string><json:string>2 - geosciences, multidisciplinary</json:string></wos><scienceMetrix><json:string>1 - natural sciences</json:string><json:string>2 - earth & environmental sciences</json:string><json:string>3 - meteorology & atmospheric sciences</json:string></scienceMetrix><scopus><json:string>1 - Physical Sciences</json:string><json:string>2 - Earth and Planetary Sciences</json:string><json:string>3 - General Earth and Planetary Sciences</json:string><json:string>1 - Physical Sciences</json:string><json:string>2 - Earth and Planetary Sciences</json:string><json:string>3 - Geophysics</json:string></scopus></categories><publicationDate>2012</publicationDate><copyrightDate>2012</copyrightDate><doi><json:string>10.1029/2012GL051447</json:string></doi><id>0B80AB9BD7AE9F9BC5632B678BE125ED8F6FACFE</id><score>1</score><fulltext><json:item><extension>pdf</extension><original>true</original><mimetype>application/pdf</mimetype><uri>https://api.istex.fr/document/0B80AB9BD7AE9F9BC5632B678BE125ED8F6FACFE/fulltext/pdf</uri></json:item><json:item><extension>zip</extension><original>false</original><mimetype>application/zip</mimetype><uri>https://api.istex.fr/document/0B80AB9BD7AE9F9BC5632B678BE125ED8F6FACFE/fulltext/zip</uri></json:item><istex:fulltextTEI uri="https://api.istex.fr/document/0B80AB9BD7AE9F9BC5632B678BE125ED8F6FACFE/fulltext/tei"><teiHeader><fileDesc><titleStmt><title level="a" type="main">Drivers of the projected changes to the Pacific Ocean equatorial circulation</title></titleStmt><publicationStmt><authority>ISTEX</authority><publisher>Wiley Publishing Ltd</publisher><availability><licence>Copyright 2012 by the American Geophysical Union</licence></availability><date type="published" when="2012-05"></date></publicationStmt><notesStmt><note type="content-type" subtype="article" source="article" scheme="https://content-type.data.istex.fr/ark:/67375/XTP-6N5SZHKN-D">article</note><note type="publication-type" subtype="journal" scheme="https://publication-type.data.istex.fr/ark:/67375/JMC-0GLKJH51-B">journal</note></notesStmt><sourceDesc><biblStruct type="article"><analytic><title level="a" type="main">Drivers of the projected changes to the Pacific Ocean equatorial circulation</title><title level="a" type="short">PACIFIC OCEAN CIRCULATION PROJECTIONS</title><author xml:id="author-0000" role="corresp"><persName><forename type="first">A.</forename><surname>Sen Gupta</surname></persName><email>a.sengupta@unsw.edu.au</email><affiliation>Climate Change Research Centre, University of New South Wales, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia<address><country key="AU"></country></address></affiliation><affiliation>Corresponding author: A. Sen Gupta, Climate Change Research Centre, University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW 2052, Australia. (a.sengupta@unsw.edu.au)</affiliation></author><author xml:id="author-0001"><persName><forename type="first">A.</forename><surname>Ganachaud</surname></persName><affiliation>LEGOS, UMR5566, Institut de Recherche pour le Développement, Nouméa, New Caledonia<address><country key="NC"></country></address></affiliation><affiliation>LEGOS, UPS, OMP-PCA, Toulouse, France<address><country key="FR"></country></address></affiliation></author><author xml:id="author-0002"><persName><forename type="first">S.</forename><surname>McGregor</surname></persName><affiliation>Climate Change Research Centre, University of New South Wales, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia<address><country key="AU"></country></address></affiliation></author><author xml:id="author-0003"><persName><forename type="first">J. N.</forename><surname>Brown</surname></persName><affiliation>Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research, CSIRO Wealth from Oceans National Research Flagship, Hobart, Tasmania, Australia<address><country key="AU"></country></address></affiliation></author><author xml:id="author-0004"><persName><forename type="first">L.</forename><surname>Muir</surname></persName><affiliation>Department of Geology and Geophysics, Yale University, New Haven, Connecticut, USA<address><country key="US"></country></address></affiliation></author><idno type="istex">0B80AB9BD7AE9F9BC5632B678BE125ED8F6FACFE</idno><idno type="ark">ark:/67375/WNG-BMPW3WCG-7</idno><idno type="DOI">10.1029/2012GL051447</idno><idno type="editorialOffice">2012GL051447</idno><idno type="society">L09605</idno><idno type="unit">GRL29139</idno><idno type="toTypesetVersion">file:GRL.GRL29139.pdf</idno></analytic><monogr><title level="j" type="main">Geophysical Research Letters</title><title level="j" type="alt">GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS</title><idno type="pISSN">0094-8276</idno><idno type="eISSN">1944-8007</idno><idno type="book-DOI">10.1002/(ISSN)1944-8007</idno><idno type="book-part-DOI">10.1002/grl.v39.9</idno><idno type="product">GRL</idno><idno type="coden">GPRLAJ</idno><imprint><biblScope unit="vol">39</biblScope><biblScope unit="issue">9</biblScope><biblScope unit="page-count">7</biblScope><date type="published" when="2012-05"></date></imprint></monogr></biblStruct></sourceDesc></fileDesc><profileDesc><abstract style="main"><p xml:id="grl29139-para-0001">Climate models participating in the third Coupled Model Inter Comparison Project (CMIP3) suggest a significant increase in the transport of the New Guinea Coastal Undercurrent (NGCU) and the Equatorial Undercurrent (EUC, in the central and western Pacific) and a decrease in the Mindanao current and the Indonesian Throughflow. Most models also project a reduction in the strength of the equatorial Trade winds. Typically, on ENSO time scales, a weakening of the equatorial easterlies would lead to a reduction in EUC strength in the central Pacific. The strengthening of the EUC projected for longer timescales, can be explained by a robust projected intensification of the south‐easterly trade winds and an associated off‐equatorial wind‐stress curl change in the Southern Hemisphere. This drives the intensification of the NGCU and greater water input to the EUC in the west. A 1½‐layer shallow water model, driven by projected wind stress trends from the CMIP3 models demonstrates that the projected circulation changes are consistent with a purely wind driven response. While the equatorial winds weaken for both El Niño events and in the projections, the ocean response and the mechanisms driving the projected wind changes are distinct from those operating on interannual timescales.</p></abstract><abstract style="short"><head>Key Points</head><p xml:id="grl29139-para-0002"><list style="bulleted"><item>New Guinea Undercurrent and Equatorial Undercurrent projected to intensify</item><item>Intensification driven by wind stress curl changes in the Southern Hemisphere</item><item>Shallow water model demonstrates role of wind in driving projected changes</item></list></p></abstract><textClass><keywords><term xml:id="grl29139-kwd-0001">CMIP3</term><term xml:id="grl29139-kwd-0002">ENSO</term><term xml:id="grl29139-kwd-0003">New Guinea Coastal Undercurrent</term><term xml:id="grl29139-kwd-0004">equatorial undercurrent</term><term xml:id="grl29139-kwd-0005">tropical Pacific</term></keywords><classCode scheme="http://psi.agu.org/taxonomy5/1600">GLOBAL CHANGE</classCode><classCode scheme="http://psi.agu.org/taxonomy5/3300">ATMOSPHERIC PROCESSES</classCode><classCode scheme="http://psi.agu.org/taxonomy5/4500">OCEANOGRAPHY: PHYSICAL</classCode><classCode scheme="http://psi.agu.org/taxonomy5/4900">PALEOCEANOGRAPHY</classCode><keywords rend="articleCategory"><term>Oceans</term></keywords><keywords rend="tocHeading1"><term>Oceans</term></keywords></textClass><langUsage><language ident="en"></language></langUsage></profileDesc></teiHeader></istex:fulltextTEI><json:item><extension>txt</extension><original>false</original><mimetype>text/plain</mimetype><uri>https://api.istex.fr/document/0B80AB9BD7AE9F9BC5632B678BE125ED8F6FACFE/fulltext/txt</uri></json:item></fulltext><metadata><istex:metadataXml wicri:clean="Wiley, elements deleted: body"><istex:xmlDeclaration>version="1.0" encoding="UTF-8" standalone="yes"</istex:xmlDeclaration><istex:document><component type="serialArticle" version="2.0" xml:lang="en" xml:id="grl29139"><header><publicationMeta level="product"><doi>10.1002/(ISSN)1944-8007</doi><issn type="print">0094-8276</issn><issn type="electronic">1944-8007</issn><idGroup><id type="product" value="GRL"></id><id type="coden" value="GPRLAJ"></id></idGroup><titleGroup><title type="main" xml:lang="en" sort="GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS">Geophysical Research Letters</title><title type="short">Geophys. Res. Lett.</title></titleGroup></publicationMeta><publicationMeta level="part" position="90"><doi>10.1002/grl.v39.9</doi><numberingGroup><numbering type="journalVolume" number="39">39</numbering><numbering type="journalIssue">9</numbering></numberingGroup><coverDate startDate="2012-05">May 2012</coverDate></publicationMeta><publicationMeta level="unit" type="article" position="290" status="forIssue"><doi>10.1029/2012GL051447</doi><idGroup><id type="editorialOffice" value="2012GL051447"></id><id type="society" value="L09605"></id><id type="unit" value="GRL29139"></id></idGroup><countGroup><count type="pageTotal" number="7"></count></countGroup><titleGroup><title type="articleCategory">Oceans</title><title type="tocHeading1">Oceans</title></titleGroup><copyright ownership="thirdParty">Copyright 2012 by the American Geophysical Union</copyright><eventGroup><event type="manuscriptReceived" date="2012-02-27"></event><event type="manuscriptRevised" date="2012-04-04"></event><event type="manuscriptAccepted" date="2012-04-09"></event><event type="firstOnline" date="2012-05-11"></event><event type="publishedOnlineFinalForm" date="2012-05-11"></event><event type="xmlConverted" agent="SPi Global Converter:AGUv5.2_TO_WileyML3Gv1.0.3 version:1.3; AGU2WileyML3G Final Clean Up v1.0; WileyML 3G Packaging Tool v1.0" date="2012-12-19"></event><event type="xmlConverted" agent="Converter:WILEY_ML3G_TO_WILEY_ML3GV2 version:3.8.8" date="2014-01-26"></event><event type="xmlConverted" agent="Converter:WML3G_To_WML3G version:4.3.4 mode:FullText" date="2015-02-24"></event></eventGroup><numberingGroup><numbering type="pageFirst">n/a</numbering><numbering type="pageLast">n/a</numbering></numberingGroup><correspondenceTo>Corresponding author: A. 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(<email>a.sengupta@unsw.edu.au</email>)</correspondenceTo><subjectInfo><subject role="crossTerm" href="http://psi.agu.org/taxonomy5/1600">GLOBAL CHANGE</subject><subjectInfo><subject role="crossTerm" href="http://psi.agu.org/taxonomy5/1626">Global climate models</subject></subjectInfo><subject role="crossTerm" href="http://psi.agu.org/taxonomy5/3300">ATMOSPHERIC PROCESSES</subject><subjectInfo><subject role="crossTerm" href="http://psi.agu.org/taxonomy5/3337">Global climate models</subject></subjectInfo><subject href="http://psi.agu.org/taxonomy5/4500">OCEANOGRAPHY: PHYSICAL</subject><subjectInfo><subject href="http://psi.agu.org/taxonomy5/4512">Currents</subject><subject href="http://psi.agu.org/taxonomy5/4576">Western boundary currents</subject></subjectInfo><subject href="http://psi.agu.org/taxonomy5/4900">PALEOCEANOGRAPHY</subject><subjectInfo><subject href="http://psi.agu.org/taxonomy5/4928">Global climate models</subject></subjectInfo></subjectInfo><selfCitationGroup><citation xml:id="grl29139-cit-0000" type="self"><author><familyName>Sen Gupta</familyName>, <givenNames>A.</givenNames></author>, <author><givenNames>A.</givenNames> <familyName>Ganachaud</familyName></author>, <author><givenNames>S.</givenNames> <familyName>McGregor</familyName></author>, <author><givenNames>J. N.</givenNames> <familyName>Brown</familyName></author>, and <author><givenNames>L.</givenNames> <familyName>Muir</familyName></author> (<pubYear year="2012">2012</pubYear>), <articleTitle>Drivers of the projected changes to the Pacific Ocean equatorial circulation</articleTitle>, <journalTitle>Geophys. Res. 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N.</givenNames><familyName>Brown</familyName></personName></creator><creator xml:id="grl29139-cr-0005" creatorRole="author" affiliationRef="#grl29139-aff-0005"><personName><givenNames>L.</givenNames><familyName>Muir</familyName></personName></creator></creators><affiliationGroup><affiliation xml:id="grl29139-aff-0001" countryCode="AU" type="organization"><unparsedAffiliation>Climate Change Research Centre, University of New South Wales, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia</unparsedAffiliation></affiliation><affiliation xml:id="grl29139-aff-0002" countryCode="NC" type="organization"><unparsedAffiliation>LEGOS, UMR5566, Institut de Recherche pour le Développement, Nouméa, New Caledonia</unparsedAffiliation></affiliation><affiliation xml:id="grl29139-aff-0003" countryCode="FR" type="organization"><unparsedAffiliation>LEGOS, UPS, OMP-PCA, Toulouse, France</unparsedAffiliation></affiliation><affiliation xml:id="grl29139-aff-0004" countryCode="AU" type="organization"><unparsedAffiliation>Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research, CSIRO Wealth from Oceans National Research Flagship, Hobart, Tasmania, Australia</unparsedAffiliation></affiliation><affiliation xml:id="grl29139-aff-0005" countryCode="US" type="organization"><unparsedAffiliation>Department of Geology and Geophysics, Yale University, New Haven, Connecticut, USA</unparsedAffiliation></affiliation></affiliationGroup><keywordGroup type="author"><keyword xml:id="grl29139-kwd-0001">CMIP3</keyword><keyword xml:id="grl29139-kwd-0002">ENSO</keyword><keyword xml:id="grl29139-kwd-0003">New Guinea Coastal Undercurrent</keyword><keyword xml:id="grl29139-kwd-0004">equatorial undercurrent</keyword><keyword xml:id="grl29139-kwd-0005">tropical Pacific</keyword></keywordGroup><abstractGroup><abstract type="main"><p xml:id="grl29139-para-0001" label="1">Climate models participating in the third Coupled Model Inter Comparison Project (CMIP3) suggest a significant increase in the transport of the New Guinea Coastal Undercurrent (NGCU) and the Equatorial Undercurrent (EUC, in the central and western Pacific) and a decrease in the Mindanao current and the Indonesian Throughflow. Most models also project a reduction in the strength of the equatorial Trade winds. Typically, on ENSO time scales, a weakening of the equatorial easterlies would lead to a reduction in EUC strength in the central Pacific. The strengthening of the EUC projected for longer timescales, can be explained by a robust projected intensification of the south‐easterly trade winds and an associated off‐equatorial wind‐stress curl change in the Southern Hemisphere. This drives the intensification of the NGCU and greater water input to the EUC in the west. A 1½‐layer shallow water model, driven by projected wind stress trends from the CMIP3 models demonstrates that the projected circulation changes are consistent with a purely wind driven response. While the equatorial winds weaken for both El Niño events and in the projections, the ocean response and the mechanisms driving the projected wind changes are distinct from those operating on interannual timescales.</p></abstract><abstract type="short"><title type="main">Key Points</title><p xml:id="grl29139-para-0002"><list style="bulleted"><listItem>New Guinea Undercurrent and Equatorial Undercurrent projected to intensify</listItem><listItem>Intensification driven by wind stress curl changes in the Southern Hemisphere</listItem><listItem>Shallow water model demonstrates role of wind in driving projected changes</listItem></list></p></abstract></abstractGroup></contentMeta></header></component></istex:document></istex:metadataXml><mods version="3.6"><titleInfo lang="en"><title>Drivers of the projected changes to the Pacific Ocean equatorial circulation</title></titleInfo><titleInfo type="abbreviated" lang="en"><title>PACIFIC OCEAN CIRCULATION PROJECTIONS</title></titleInfo><titleInfo type="alternative" contentType="CDATA" lang="en"><title>Drivers of the projected changes to the Pacific Ocean equatorial circulation</title></titleInfo><name type="personal"><namePart type="given">A.</namePart><namePart type="family">Sen Gupta</namePart><affiliation>Climate Change Research Centre, University of New South Wales, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia</affiliation><affiliation>E-mail: a.sengupta@unsw.edu.au</affiliation><affiliation>E-mail: a.sengupta@unsw.edu.au</affiliation><role><roleTerm type="text">author</roleTerm></role></name><name type="personal"><namePart type="given">A.</namePart><namePart type="family">Ganachaud</namePart><affiliation>LEGOS, UMR5566, Institut de Recherche pour le Développement, Nouméa, New Caledonia</affiliation><affiliation>LEGOS, UPS, OMP-PCA, Toulouse, France</affiliation><role><roleTerm type="text">author</roleTerm></role></name><name type="personal"><namePart type="given">S.</namePart><namePart type="family">McGregor</namePart><affiliation>Climate Change Research Centre, University of New South Wales, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia</affiliation><role><roleTerm type="text">author</roleTerm></role></name><name type="personal"><namePart type="given">J. N.</namePart><namePart type="family">Brown</namePart><affiliation>Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research, CSIRO Wealth from Oceans National Research Flagship, Hobart, Tasmania, Australia</affiliation><role><roleTerm type="text">author</roleTerm></role></name><name type="personal"><namePart type="given">L.</namePart><namePart type="family">Muir</namePart><affiliation>Department of Geology and Geophysics, Yale University, New Haven, Connecticut, USA</affiliation><role><roleTerm type="text">author</roleTerm></role></name><typeOfResource>text</typeOfResource><genre type="article" displayLabel="article" authority="ISTEX" authorityURI="https://content-type.data.istex.fr" valueURI="https://content-type.data.istex.fr/ark:/67375/XTP-6N5SZHKN-D">article</genre><originInfo><publisher>Blackwell Publishing Ltd</publisher><dateIssued encoding="w3cdtf">2012-05</dateIssued><dateCaptured encoding="w3cdtf">2012-02-27</dateCaptured><dateValid encoding="w3cdtf">2012-04-09</dateValid><edition>Sen Gupta, A., A. Ganachaud, S. McGregor, J. N. Brown, and L. Muir (2012), Drivers of the projected changes to the Pacific Ocean equatorial circulation, Geophys. Res. Lett., 39, L09605, doi:10.1029/2012GL051447.</edition><copyrightDate encoding="w3cdtf">2012</copyrightDate></originInfo><language><languageTerm type="code" authority="rfc3066">en</languageTerm><languageTerm type="code" authority="iso639-2b">eng</languageTerm></language><physicalDescription><extent unit="figures">4</extent><extent unit="words">5300</extent></physicalDescription><abstract>Climate models participating in the third Coupled Model Inter Comparison Project (CMIP3) suggest a significant increase in the transport of the New Guinea Coastal Undercurrent (NGCU) and the Equatorial Undercurrent (EUC, in the central and western Pacific) and a decrease in the Mindanao current and the Indonesian Throughflow. Most models also project a reduction in the strength of the equatorial Trade winds. Typically, on ENSO time scales, a weakening of the equatorial easterlies would lead to a reduction in EUC strength in the central Pacific. The strengthening of the EUC projected for longer timescales, can be explained by a robust projected intensification of the south‐easterly trade winds and an associated off‐equatorial wind‐stress curl change in the Southern Hemisphere. This drives the intensification of the NGCU and greater water input to the EUC in the west. A 1½‐layer shallow water model, driven by projected wind stress trends from the CMIP3 models demonstrates that the projected circulation changes are consistent with a purely wind driven response. While the equatorial winds weaken for both El Niño events and in the projections, the ocean response and the mechanisms driving the projected wind changes are distinct from those operating on interannual timescales.</abstract><abstract type="short">New Guinea Undercurrent and Equatorial Undercurrent projected to intensify Intensification driven by wind stress curl changes in the Southern Hemisphere Shallow water model demonstrates role of wind in driving projected changes</abstract><subject><genre>keywords</genre><topic>CMIP3</topic><topic>ENSO</topic><topic>New Guinea Coastal Undercurrent</topic><topic>equatorial undercurrent</topic><topic>tropical Pacific</topic></subject><relatedItem type="host"><titleInfo><title>Geophysical Research Letters</title></titleInfo><titleInfo type="abbreviated"><title>Geophys. Res. 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