Land‐use change trajectories up to 2050: insights from a global agro‐economic model comparison
Identifieur interne : 000101 ( Istex/Checkpoint ); précédent : 000100; suivant : 000102Land‐use change trajectories up to 2050: insights from a global agro‐economic model comparison
Auteurs : Christoph Schmitz [Allemagne] ; Hans Van Meijl [Pays-Bas] ; Page Kyle [États-Unis] ; Gerald C. Nelson [États-Unis] ; Shinichiro Fujimori [Japon] ; Angelo Gurgel [Brésil] ; Petr Havlik [Autriche] ; Edwina Heyhoe [Australie] ; Daniel Mason D'Croz [États-Unis] ; Alexander Popp [Allemagne] ; Ron Sands [États-Unis] ; Andrzej Tabeau [Pays-Bas] ; Dominique Van Der Mensbrugghe [Italie] ; Martin Von Lampe [France] ; Marshall Wise [États-Unis] ; Elodie Blanc [États-Unis] ; Tomoko Hasegawa [Japon] ; Aikaterini Kavallari [Pays-Bas] ; Hugo Valin [Autriche]Source :
- Agricultural Economics [ 0169-5150 ] ; 2014-01.
Abstract
Changes in agricultural land use have important implications for environmental services. Previous studies of agricultural land‐use futures have been published indicating large uncertainty due to different model assumptions and methodologies. In this article we present a first comprehensive comparison of global agro‐economic models that have harmonized drivers of population, GDP, and biophysical yields. The comparison allows us to ask two research questions: (1) How much cropland will be used under different socioeconomic and climate change scenarios? (2) How can differences in model results be explained? The comparison includes four partial and six general equilibrium models that differ in how they model land supply and amount of potentially available land. We analyze results of two different socioeconomic scenarios and three climate scenarios (one with constant climate). Most models (7 out of 10) project an increase of cropland of 10–25% by 2050 compared to 2005 (under constant climate), but one model projects a decrease. Pasture land expands in some models, which increase the treat on natural vegetation further. Across all models most of the cropland expansion takes place in South America and sub‐Saharan Africa. In general, the strongest differences in model results are related to differences in the costs of land expansion, the endogenous productivity responses, and the assumptions about potential cropland.
Url:
DOI: 10.1111/agec.12090
Affiliations:
- Allemagne, Australie, Autriche, Brésil, France, Italie, Japon, Pays-Bas, États-Unis
- District de Columbia, Illinois, Latium, Maryland, Washington (État), État de São Paulo
- Rome, São Paulo
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Nelson</name></author><author><name sortKey="Fujimori, Shinichiro" sort="Fujimori, Shinichiro" uniqKey="Fujimori S" first="Shinichiro" last="Fujimori">Shinichiro Fujimori</name></author><author><name sortKey="Gurgel, Angelo" sort="Gurgel, Angelo" uniqKey="Gurgel A" first="Angelo" last="Gurgel">Angelo Gurgel</name></author><author><name sortKey="Havlik, Petr" sort="Havlik, Petr" uniqKey="Havlik P" first="Petr" last="Havlik">Petr Havlik</name></author><author><name sortKey="Heyhoe, Edwina" sort="Heyhoe, Edwina" uniqKey="Heyhoe E" first="Edwina" last="Heyhoe">Edwina Heyhoe</name></author><author><name sortKey="D Croz, Daniel Mason" sort="D Croz, Daniel Mason" uniqKey="D Croz D" first="Daniel Mason" last="D'Croz">Daniel Mason D'Croz</name></author><author><name sortKey="Popp, Alexander" sort="Popp, Alexander" uniqKey="Popp A" first="Alexander" last="Popp">Alexander Popp</name></author><author><name sortKey="Sands, Ron" sort="Sands, Ron" uniqKey="Sands R" first="Ron" last="Sands">Ron Sands</name></author><author><name sortKey="Tabeau, Andrzej" sort="Tabeau, Andrzej" uniqKey="Tabeau A" first="Andrzej" last="Tabeau">Andrzej Tabeau</name></author><author><name sortKey="Van Der Mensbrugghe, Dominique" sort="Van Der Mensbrugghe, Dominique" uniqKey="Van Der Mensbrugghe D" first="Dominique" last="Van Der Mensbrugghe">Dominique Van Der Mensbrugghe</name></author><author><name sortKey="Von Lampe, Martin" sort="Von Lampe, Martin" uniqKey="Von Lampe M" first="Martin" last="Von Lampe">Martin Von Lampe</name></author><author><name sortKey="Wise, Marshall" sort="Wise, Marshall" uniqKey="Wise M" first="Marshall" last="Wise">Marshall Wise</name></author><author><name sortKey="Blanc, Elodie" sort="Blanc, Elodie" uniqKey="Blanc E" first="Elodie" last="Blanc">Elodie Blanc</name></author><author><name sortKey="Hasegawa, Tomoko" sort="Hasegawa, Tomoko" uniqKey="Hasegawa T" first="Tomoko" last="Hasegawa">Tomoko Hasegawa</name></author><author><name sortKey="Kavallari, Aikaterini" sort="Kavallari, Aikaterini" uniqKey="Kavallari A" first="Aikaterini" last="Kavallari">Aikaterini Kavallari</name></author><author><name sortKey="Valin, Hugo" sort="Valin, Hugo" uniqKey="Valin H" first="Hugo" last="Valin">Hugo Valin</name></author></titleStmt><publicationStmt><idno type="wicri:source">ISTEX</idno><idno type="RBID">ISTEX:072207A9F72B2FC75DBF606DDA33310ED92D1B03</idno><date when="2014" year="2014">2014</date><idno type="doi">10.1111/agec.12090</idno><idno type="url">https://api.istex.fr/document/072207A9F72B2FC75DBF606DDA33310ED92D1B03/fulltext/pdf</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/Istex/Corpus">000131</idno><idno type="wicri:explorRef" wicri:stream="Istex" wicri:step="Corpus" wicri:corpus="ISTEX">000131</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/Istex/Curation">000131</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/Istex/Checkpoint">000101</idno><idno type="wicri:explorRef" wicri:stream="Istex" wicri:step="Checkpoint">000101</idno></publicationStmt><sourceDesc><biblStruct><analytic><title level="a" type="main">Land‐use change trajectories up to 2050: insights from a global agro‐economic model comparison</title><author><name sortKey="Schmitz, Christoph" sort="Schmitz, Christoph" uniqKey="Schmitz C" first="Christoph" last="Schmitz">Christoph Schmitz</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><country xml:lang="fr">Allemagne</country><wicri:regionArea>Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), 14473 Potsdam, Telegrafenberg A 31</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Telegrafenberg A 31</wicri:noRegion><wicri:noRegion>Telegrafenberg A 31</wicri:noRegion></affiliation><affiliation wicri:level="1"><country wicri:rule="url">Allemagne</country></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Van Meijl, Hans" sort="Van Meijl, Hans" uniqKey="Van Meijl H" first="Hans" last="Van Meijl">Hans Van Meijl</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><country xml:lang="fr">Pays-Bas</country><wicri:regionArea>Agricultural Economics Research Institute (LEI), Wageningen University and Research Centre, 2585 DB, The Hague</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>The Hague</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Kyle, Page" sort="Kyle, Page" uniqKey="Kyle P" first="Page" last="Kyle">Page Kyle</name><affiliation wicri:level="2"><country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country><wicri:regionArea>Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), 5825 University Research Court, Suite 3500 College Park, MD 20740</wicri:regionArea><placeName><region type="state">Maryland</region></placeName></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Nelson, Gerald C" sort="Nelson, Gerald C" uniqKey="Nelson G" first="Gerald C." last="Nelson">Gerald C. 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xml:lang="fr">Australie</country><wicri:regionArea>Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences (ABARES), 18 Marcus Clarke Street, Canberra ACT 2601</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Canberra ACT 2601</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="D Croz, Daniel Mason" sort="D Croz, Daniel Mason" uniqKey="D Croz D" first="Daniel Mason" last="D'Croz">Daniel Mason D'Croz</name><affiliation wicri:level="2"><country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country><wicri:regionArea>International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), DC, 20006‐1002, 2033 K St., NW, Washington</wicri:regionArea><placeName><region type="state">Washington (État)</region></placeName></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Popp, Alexander" sort="Popp, Alexander" uniqKey="Popp A" first="Alexander" last="Popp">Alexander Popp</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><country xml:lang="fr">Allemagne</country><wicri:regionArea>Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), 14473 Potsdam, Telegrafenberg A 31</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Telegrafenberg A 31</wicri:noRegion><wicri:noRegion>Telegrafenberg A 31</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Sands, Ron" sort="Sands, Ron" uniqKey="Sands R" first="Ron" last="Sands">Ron Sands</name><affiliation wicri:level="2"><country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country><wicri:regionArea>Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA), SW, Mailstop 1800, 1400 Independence Ave., Washington, DC 20250</wicri:regionArea><placeName><region type="state">District de Columbia</region></placeName></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Tabeau, Andrzej" sort="Tabeau, Andrzej" uniqKey="Tabeau A" first="Andrzej" last="Tabeau">Andrzej Tabeau</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><country xml:lang="fr">Pays-Bas</country><wicri:regionArea>Agricultural Economics Research Institute (LEI), Wageningen University and Research Centre, 2585 DB, The Hague</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>The Hague</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Van Der Mensbrugghe, Dominique" sort="Van Der Mensbrugghe, Dominique" uniqKey="Van Der Mensbrugghe D" first="Dominique" last="Van Der Mensbrugghe">Dominique Van Der Mensbrugghe</name><affiliation wicri:level="3"><country xml:lang="fr">Italie</country><wicri:regionArea>Viale delle Terme di Caracalla, Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), 00153, Roma</wicri:regionArea><placeName><settlement type="city">Rome</settlement><region nuts="2">Latium</region></placeName></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Von Lampe, Martin" sort="Von Lampe, Martin" uniqKey="Von Lampe M" first="Martin" last="Von Lampe">Martin Von Lampe</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><country xml:lang="fr">France</country><wicri:regionArea>Organisation for Economic Co‐operation and Development (OECD), 2, rue André Pascal, 75775 Paris, Cedex 16</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Cedex 16</wicri:noRegion><wicri:noRegion>Cedex 16</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Wise, Marshall" sort="Wise, Marshall" uniqKey="Wise M" first="Marshall" last="Wise">Marshall Wise</name><affiliation wicri:level="2"><country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country><wicri:regionArea>Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), 5825 University Research Court, Suite 3500 College Park, MD 20740</wicri:regionArea><placeName><region type="state">Maryland</region></placeName></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Blanc, Elodie" sort="Blanc, Elodie" uniqKey="Blanc E" first="Elodie" last="Blanc">Elodie Blanc</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country><wicri:regionArea>Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA, 02139‐4307, 77 Massachusetts Ave.</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>77 Massachusetts Ave.</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Hasegawa, Tomoko" sort="Hasegawa, Tomoko" uniqKey="Hasegawa T" first="Tomoko" last="Hasegawa">Tomoko Hasegawa</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><country xml:lang="fr">Japon</country><wicri:regionArea>National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES), Ibaraki, 305‐8506, 16‐2 Onogawa, Tsukuba</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Tsukuba</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Kavallari, Aikaterini" sort="Kavallari, Aikaterini" uniqKey="Kavallari A" first="Aikaterini" last="Kavallari">Aikaterini Kavallari</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><country xml:lang="fr">Pays-Bas</country><wicri:regionArea>Agricultural Economics Research Institute (LEI), Wageningen University and Research Centre, 2585 DB, The Hague</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>The Hague</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Valin, Hugo" sort="Valin, Hugo" uniqKey="Valin H" first="Hugo" last="Valin">Hugo Valin</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><country xml:lang="fr">Autriche</country><wicri:regionArea>International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Schlossplatz 1, A‐2361, Laxenburg</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Laxenburg</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author></analytic><monogr></monogr><series><title level="j" type="main">Agricultural Economics</title><title level="j" type="alt">AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS</title><idno type="ISSN">0169-5150</idno><idno type="eISSN">1574-0862</idno><imprint><biblScope unit="vol">45</biblScope><biblScope unit="issue">1</biblScope><biblScope unit="page" from="69">69</biblScope><biblScope unit="page" to="84">84</biblScope><biblScope unit="page-count">16</biblScope><date type="published" when="2014-01">2014-01</date></imprint><idno type="ISSN">0169-5150</idno></series></biblStruct></sourceDesc><seriesStmt><idno type="ISSN">0169-5150</idno></seriesStmt></fileDesc><profileDesc><textClass></textClass></profileDesc></teiHeader><front><div type="abstract">Changes in agricultural land use have important implications for environmental services. Previous studies of agricultural land‐use futures have been published indicating large uncertainty due to different model assumptions and methodologies. In this article we present a first comprehensive comparison of global agro‐economic models that have harmonized drivers of population, GDP, and biophysical yields. The comparison allows us to ask two research questions: (1) How much cropland will be used under different socioeconomic and climate change scenarios? (2) How can differences in model results be explained? The comparison includes four partial and six general equilibrium models that differ in how they model land supply and amount of potentially available land. We analyze results of two different socioeconomic scenarios and three climate scenarios (one with constant climate). Most models (7 out of 10) project an increase of cropland of 10–25% by 2050 compared to 2005 (under constant climate), but one model projects a decrease. Pasture land expands in some models, which increase the treat on natural vegetation further. Across all models most of the cropland expansion takes place in South America and sub‐Saharan Africa. In general, the strongest differences in model results are related to differences in the costs of land expansion, the endogenous productivity responses, and the assumptions about potential cropland.</div></front></TEI><affiliations><list><country><li>Allemagne</li><li>Australie</li><li>Autriche</li><li>Brésil</li><li>France</li><li>Italie</li><li>Japon</li><li>Pays-Bas</li><li>États-Unis</li></country><region><li>District de Columbia</li><li>Illinois</li><li>Latium</li><li>Maryland</li><li>Washington (État)</li><li>État de São Paulo</li></region><settlement><li>Rome</li><li>São Paulo</li></settlement></list><tree><country name="Allemagne"><noRegion><name sortKey="Schmitz, Christoph" sort="Schmitz, Christoph" uniqKey="Schmitz C" first="Christoph" last="Schmitz">Christoph Schmitz</name></noRegion><name sortKey="Popp, Alexander" sort="Popp, Alexander" uniqKey="Popp A" first="Alexander" last="Popp">Alexander Popp</name><name sortKey="Schmitz, Christoph" sort="Schmitz, Christoph" uniqKey="Schmitz C" first="Christoph" last="Schmitz">Christoph Schmitz</name></country><country name="Pays-Bas"><noRegion><name sortKey="Van Meijl, Hans" sort="Van Meijl, Hans" uniqKey="Van Meijl H" first="Hans" last="Van Meijl">Hans Van Meijl</name></noRegion><name sortKey="Kavallari, Aikaterini" sort="Kavallari, Aikaterini" uniqKey="Kavallari A" first="Aikaterini" last="Kavallari">Aikaterini Kavallari</name><name sortKey="Tabeau, Andrzej" sort="Tabeau, Andrzej" uniqKey="Tabeau A" first="Andrzej" last="Tabeau">Andrzej Tabeau</name></country><country name="États-Unis"><region name="Maryland"><name sortKey="Kyle, Page" sort="Kyle, Page" uniqKey="Kyle P" first="Page" last="Kyle">Page Kyle</name></region><name sortKey="Blanc, Elodie" sort="Blanc, Elodie" uniqKey="Blanc E" first="Elodie" last="Blanc">Elodie Blanc</name><name sortKey="D Croz, Daniel Mason" sort="D Croz, Daniel Mason" uniqKey="D Croz D" first="Daniel Mason" last="D'Croz">Daniel Mason D'Croz</name><name sortKey="Nelson, Gerald C" sort="Nelson, Gerald C" uniqKey="Nelson G" first="Gerald C." last="Nelson">Gerald C. Nelson</name><name sortKey="Nelson, Gerald C" sort="Nelson, Gerald C" uniqKey="Nelson G" first="Gerald C." last="Nelson">Gerald C. Nelson</name><name sortKey="Sands, Ron" sort="Sands, Ron" uniqKey="Sands R" first="Ron" last="Sands">Ron Sands</name><name sortKey="Wise, Marshall" sort="Wise, Marshall" uniqKey="Wise M" first="Marshall" last="Wise">Marshall Wise</name></country><country name="Japon"><noRegion><name sortKey="Fujimori, Shinichiro" sort="Fujimori, Shinichiro" uniqKey="Fujimori S" first="Shinichiro" last="Fujimori">Shinichiro Fujimori</name></noRegion><name sortKey="Hasegawa, Tomoko" sort="Hasegawa, Tomoko" uniqKey="Hasegawa T" first="Tomoko" last="Hasegawa">Tomoko Hasegawa</name></country><country name="Brésil"><region name="État de São Paulo"><name sortKey="Gurgel, Angelo" sort="Gurgel, Angelo" uniqKey="Gurgel A" first="Angelo" last="Gurgel">Angelo Gurgel</name></region></country><country name="Autriche"><noRegion><name sortKey="Havlik, Petr" sort="Havlik, Petr" uniqKey="Havlik P" first="Petr" last="Havlik">Petr Havlik</name></noRegion><name sortKey="Valin, Hugo" sort="Valin, Hugo" uniqKey="Valin H" first="Hugo" last="Valin">Hugo Valin</name></country><country name="Australie"><noRegion><name sortKey="Heyhoe, Edwina" sort="Heyhoe, Edwina" uniqKey="Heyhoe E" first="Edwina" last="Heyhoe">Edwina Heyhoe</name></noRegion></country><country name="Italie"><region name="Latium"><name sortKey="Van Der Mensbrugghe, Dominique" sort="Van Der Mensbrugghe, Dominique" uniqKey="Van Der Mensbrugghe D" first="Dominique" last="Van Der Mensbrugghe">Dominique Van Der Mensbrugghe</name></region></country><country name="France"><noRegion><name sortKey="Von Lampe, Martin" sort="Von Lampe, Martin" uniqKey="Von Lampe M" first="Martin" last="Von Lampe">Martin Von Lampe</name></noRegion></country></tree></affiliations></record>Pour manipuler ce document sous Unix (Dilib)
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