Impacts of Climate Change on Indirect Human Exposure to Pathogens and Chemicals from Agriculture
Identifieur interne : 000B66 ( Pmc/Checkpoint ); précédent : 000B65; suivant : 000B67Impacts of Climate Change on Indirect Human Exposure to Pathogens and Chemicals from Agriculture
Auteurs : Alistair B. A. Boxall [Royaume-Uni] ; Anthony Hardy [Royaume-Uni] ; Sabine Beulke [Royaume-Uni] ; Tatiana Boucard [Royaume-Uni] ; Laura Burgin [Royaume-Uni] ; Peter D. Falloon [Royaume-Uni] ; Philip M. Haygarth [Royaume-Uni] ; Thomas Hutchinson [Royaume-Uni] ; R. Sari Kovats [Royaume-Uni] ; Giovanni Leonardi [Royaume-Uni] ; Leonard S. Levy [Royaume-Uni] ; Gordon Nichols [Royaume-Uni] ; Simon A. Parsons [Royaume-Uni] ; Laura Potts [Royaume-Uni] ; David Stone [Royaume-Uni] ; Edward Topp [Canada] ; David B. Turley [Royaume-Uni] ; Kerry Walsh [Royaume-Uni] ; Elizabeth M. H. Wellington [Royaume-Uni] ; Richard J. Williams [Royaume-Uni]Source :
- Environmental Health Perspectives [ 0091-6765 ] ; 2008.
Abstract
Climate change is likely to affect the nature of pathogens and chemicals in the environment and their fate and transport. Future risks of pathogens and chemicals could therefore be very different from those of today. In this review, we assess the implications of climate change for changes in human exposures to pathogens and chemicals in agricultural systems in the United Kingdom and discuss the subsequent effects on health impacts.
In this review, we used expert input and considered literature on climate change; health effects resulting from exposure to pathogens and chemicals arising from agriculture; inputs of chemicals and pathogens to agricultural systems; and human exposure pathways for pathogens and chemicals in agricultural systems.
We established the current evidence base for health effects of chemicals and pathogens in the agricultural environment; determined the potential implications of climate change on chemical and pathogen inputs in agricultural systems; and explored the effects of climate change on environmental transport and fate of different contaminant types. We combined these data to assess the implications of climate change in terms of indirect human exposure to pathogens and chemicals in agricultural systems. We then developed recommendations on future research and policy changes to manage any adverse increases in risks.
Overall, climate change is likely to increase human exposures to agricultural contaminants. The magnitude of the increases will be highly dependent on the contaminant type. Risks from many pathogens and particulate and particle-associated contaminants could increase significantly. These increases in exposure can, however, be managed for the most part through targeted research and policy changes.
Url:
DOI: 10.1289/ehp.0800084
PubMed: 19440487
PubMed Central: 2679592
Affiliations:
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PMC:2679592Le document en format XML
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<author><name sortKey="Falloon, Peter D" sort="Falloon, Peter D" uniqKey="Falloon P" first="Peter D." last="Falloon">Peter D. Falloon</name>
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<author><name sortKey="Haygarth, Philip M" sort="Haygarth, Philip M" uniqKey="Haygarth P" first="Philip M." last="Haygarth">Philip M. Haygarth</name>
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<author><name sortKey="Kovats, R Sari" sort="Kovats, R Sari" uniqKey="Kovats R" first="R. Sari" last="Kovats">R. Sari Kovats</name>
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<author><name sortKey="Leonardi, Giovanni" sort="Leonardi, Giovanni" uniqKey="Leonardi G" first="Giovanni" last="Leonardi">Giovanni Leonardi</name>
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<author><name sortKey="Levy, Leonard S" sort="Levy, Leonard S" uniqKey="Levy L" first="Leonard S." last="Levy">Leonard S. Levy</name>
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<author><name sortKey="Nichols, Gordon" sort="Nichols, Gordon" uniqKey="Nichols G" first="Gordon" last="Nichols">Gordon Nichols</name>
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<author><name sortKey="Stone, David" sort="Stone, David" uniqKey="Stone D" first="David" last="Stone">David Stone</name>
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<author><name sortKey="Topp, Edward" sort="Topp, Edward" uniqKey="Topp E" first="Edward" last="Topp">Edward Topp</name>
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<author><name sortKey="Walsh, Kerry" sort="Walsh, Kerry" uniqKey="Walsh K" first="Kerry" last="Walsh">Kerry Walsh</name>
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<affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="af13-ehp-117-508"> University of Warwick, Warwick, United Kingdom;</nlm:aff>
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<author><name sortKey="Boxall, Alistair B A" sort="Boxall, Alistair B A" uniqKey="Boxall A" first="Alistair B. A." last="Boxall">Alistair B. A. Boxall</name>
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<author><name sortKey="Hardy, Anthony" sort="Hardy, Anthony" uniqKey="Hardy A" first="Anthony" last="Hardy">Anthony Hardy</name>
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<author><name sortKey="Beulke, Sabine" sort="Beulke, Sabine" uniqKey="Beulke S" first="Sabine" last="Beulke">Sabine Beulke</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="af2-ehp-117-508"> Central Science Laboratory, Sand Hutton, York, United Kingdom;</nlm:aff>
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<author><name sortKey="Boucard, Tatiana" sort="Boucard, Tatiana" uniqKey="Boucard T" first="Tatiana" last="Boucard">Tatiana Boucard</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="af3-ehp-117-508"> Environment Agency, Wallingford, United Kingdom;</nlm:aff>
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<wicri:regionArea> Environment Agency, Wallingford</wicri:regionArea>
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<author><name sortKey="Burgin, Laura" sort="Burgin, Laura" uniqKey="Burgin L" first="Laura" last="Burgin">Laura Burgin</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="af4-ehp-117-508"> Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, United Kingdom;</nlm:aff>
<country xml:lang="fr">Royaume-Uni</country>
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<author><name sortKey="Falloon, Peter D" sort="Falloon, Peter D" uniqKey="Falloon P" first="Peter D." last="Falloon">Peter D. Falloon</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="af4-ehp-117-508"> Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, United Kingdom;</nlm:aff>
<country xml:lang="fr">Royaume-Uni</country>
<wicri:regionArea> Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter</wicri:regionArea>
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<author><name sortKey="Haygarth, Philip M" sort="Haygarth, Philip M" uniqKey="Haygarth P" first="Philip M." last="Haygarth">Philip M. Haygarth</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="af5-ehp-117-508"> Lancaster University, Lancaster, United Kingdom;</nlm:aff>
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<author><name sortKey="Hutchinson, Thomas" sort="Hutchinson, Thomas" uniqKey="Hutchinson T" first="Thomas" last="Hutchinson">Thomas Hutchinson</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="af6-ehp-117-508"> Plymouth Marine Laboratory, Plymouth, United Kingdom;</nlm:aff>
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<author><name sortKey="Kovats, R Sari" sort="Kovats, R Sari" uniqKey="Kovats R" first="R. Sari" last="Kovats">R. Sari Kovats</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="3"><nlm:aff id="af7-ehp-117-508"> London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom;</nlm:aff>
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<author><name sortKey="Leonardi, Giovanni" sort="Leonardi, Giovanni" uniqKey="Leonardi G" first="Giovanni" last="Leonardi">Giovanni Leonardi</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="3"><nlm:aff id="af8-ehp-117-508"> Health Protection Agency, London, United Kingdom;</nlm:aff>
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<author><name sortKey="Levy, Leonard S" sort="Levy, Leonard S" uniqKey="Levy L" first="Leonard S." last="Levy">Leonard S. Levy</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="af9-ehp-117-508"> Cranfield University, Cranfield, United Kingdom;</nlm:aff>
<country xml:lang="fr">Royaume-Uni</country>
<wicri:regionArea> Cranfield University, Cranfield</wicri:regionArea>
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<author><name sortKey="Nichols, Gordon" sort="Nichols, Gordon" uniqKey="Nichols G" first="Gordon" last="Nichols">Gordon Nichols</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="3"><nlm:aff id="af8-ehp-117-508"> Health Protection Agency, London, United Kingdom;</nlm:aff>
<country xml:lang="fr">Royaume-Uni</country>
<wicri:regionArea> Health Protection Agency, London</wicri:regionArea>
<placeName><settlement type="city">Londres</settlement>
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<author><name sortKey="Parsons, Simon A" sort="Parsons, Simon A" uniqKey="Parsons S" first="Simon A." last="Parsons">Simon A. Parsons</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="af9-ehp-117-508"> Cranfield University, Cranfield, United Kingdom;</nlm:aff>
<country xml:lang="fr">Royaume-Uni</country>
<wicri:regionArea> Cranfield University, Cranfield</wicri:regionArea>
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<author><name sortKey="Potts, Laura" sort="Potts, Laura" uniqKey="Potts L" first="Laura" last="Potts">Laura Potts</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="af10-ehp-117-508"> York St. John University, York, United Kingdom;</nlm:aff>
<country xml:lang="fr">Royaume-Uni</country>
<wicri:regionArea> York St. John University, York</wicri:regionArea>
<wicri:noRegion>York</wicri:noRegion>
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<author><name sortKey="Stone, David" sort="Stone, David" uniqKey="Stone D" first="David" last="Stone">David Stone</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="af11-ehp-117-508"> Natural England, Peterborough, United Kingdom;</nlm:aff>
<country xml:lang="fr">Royaume-Uni</country>
<wicri:regionArea> Natural England, Peterborough</wicri:regionArea>
<wicri:noRegion>Peterborough</wicri:noRegion>
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<author><name sortKey="Topp, Edward" sort="Topp, Edward" uniqKey="Topp E" first="Edward" last="Topp">Edward Topp</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="3"><nlm:aff id="af12-ehp-117-508"> Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada, London, Canada;</nlm:aff>
<country xml:lang="fr">Canada</country>
<wicri:regionArea> Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada, London</wicri:regionArea>
<placeName><settlement type="city">Londres</settlement>
<region type="country">Angleterre</region>
<region type="région" nuts="1">Grand Londres</region>
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</affiliation>
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<author><name sortKey="Turley, David B" sort="Turley, David B" uniqKey="Turley D" first="David B." last="Turley">David B. Turley</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="af2-ehp-117-508"> Central Science Laboratory, Sand Hutton, York, United Kingdom;</nlm:aff>
<country xml:lang="fr">Royaume-Uni</country>
<wicri:regionArea> Central Science Laboratory, Sand Hutton, York</wicri:regionArea>
<wicri:noRegion>York</wicri:noRegion>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Walsh, Kerry" sort="Walsh, Kerry" uniqKey="Walsh K" first="Kerry" last="Walsh">Kerry Walsh</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="af3-ehp-117-508"> Environment Agency, Wallingford, United Kingdom;</nlm:aff>
<country xml:lang="fr">Royaume-Uni</country>
<wicri:regionArea> Environment Agency, Wallingford</wicri:regionArea>
<wicri:noRegion>Wallingford</wicri:noRegion>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Wellington, Elizabeth M H" sort="Wellington, Elizabeth M H" uniqKey="Wellington E" first="Elizabeth M. H." last="Wellington">Elizabeth M. H. Wellington</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="af13-ehp-117-508"> University of Warwick, Warwick, United Kingdom;</nlm:aff>
<country xml:lang="fr">Royaume-Uni</country>
<wicri:regionArea> University of Warwick, Warwick</wicri:regionArea>
<wicri:noRegion>Warwick</wicri:noRegion>
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</author>
<author><name sortKey="Williams, Richard J" sort="Williams, Richard J" uniqKey="Williams R" first="Richard J." last="Williams">Richard J. Williams</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="af14-ehp-117-508"> Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Wallingford, United Kingdom</nlm:aff>
<country xml:lang="fr">Royaume-Uni</country>
<wicri:regionArea> Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Wallingford</wicri:regionArea>
<wicri:noRegion>Wallingford</wicri:noRegion>
</affiliation>
</author>
</analytic>
<series><title level="j">Environmental Health Perspectives</title>
<idno type="ISSN">0091-6765</idno>
<idno type="eISSN">1552-9924</idno>
<imprint><date when="2008">2008</date>
</imprint>
</series>
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</sourceDesc>
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<profileDesc><textClass></textClass>
</profileDesc>
</teiHeader>
<front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en"><sec><title>Objective</title>
<p>Climate change is likely to affect the nature of pathogens and chemicals in the environment and their fate and transport. Future risks of pathogens and chemicals could therefore be very different from those of today. In this review, we assess the implications of climate change for changes in human exposures to pathogens and chemicals in agricultural systems in the United Kingdom and discuss the subsequent effects on health impacts.</p>
</sec>
<sec><title>Data sources</title>
<p>In this review, we used expert input and considered literature on climate change; health effects resulting from exposure to pathogens and chemicals arising from agriculture; inputs of chemicals and pathogens to agricultural systems; and human exposure pathways for pathogens and chemicals in agricultural systems.</p>
</sec>
<sec><title>Data synthesis</title>
<p>We established the current evidence base for health effects of chemicals and pathogens in the agricultural environment; determined the potential implications of climate change on chemical and pathogen inputs in agricultural systems; and explored the effects of climate change on environmental transport and fate of different contaminant types. We combined these data to assess the implications of climate change in terms of indirect human exposure to pathogens and chemicals in agricultural systems. We then developed recommendations on future research and policy changes to manage any adverse increases in risks.</p>
</sec>
<sec><title>Conclusions</title>
<p>Overall, climate change is likely to increase human exposures to agricultural contaminants. The magnitude of the increases will be highly dependent on the contaminant type. Risks from many pathogens and particulate and particle-associated contaminants could increase significantly. These increases in exposure can, however, be managed for the most part through targeted research and policy changes.</p>
</sec>
</div>
</front>
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</TEI>
<pmc article-type="review-article"><pmc-dir>properties open_access</pmc-dir>
<front><journal-meta><journal-id journal-id-type="nlm-ta">Environ Health Perspect</journal-id>
<journal-id journal-id-type="iso-abbrev">Environ. Health Perspect</journal-id>
<journal-title-group><journal-title>Environmental Health Perspectives</journal-title>
</journal-title-group>
<issn pub-type="ppub">0091-6765</issn>
<issn pub-type="epub">1552-9924</issn>
<publisher><publisher-name>National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences</publisher-name>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta><article-id pub-id-type="pmid">19440487</article-id>
<article-id pub-id-type="pmc">2679592</article-id>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.1289/ehp.0800084</article-id>
<article-id pub-id-type="publisher-id">ehp-117-508</article-id>
<article-categories><subj-group subj-group-type="heading"><subject>Review</subject>
</subj-group>
</article-categories>
<title-group><article-title>Impacts of Climate Change on Indirect Human Exposure to Pathogens and Chemicals from Agriculture</article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Boxall</surname>
<given-names>Alistair B.A.</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="af1-ehp-117-508">1</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="af2-ehp-117-508">2</xref>
<xref ref-type="corresp" rid="c1-ehp-117-508"></xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Hardy</surname>
<given-names>Anthony</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="af2-ehp-117-508">2</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Beulke</surname>
<given-names>Sabine</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="af2-ehp-117-508">2</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Boucard</surname>
<given-names>Tatiana</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="af3-ehp-117-508">3</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Burgin</surname>
<given-names>Laura</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="af4-ehp-117-508">4</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Falloon</surname>
<given-names>Peter D.</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="af4-ehp-117-508">4</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Haygarth</surname>
<given-names>Philip M.</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="af5-ehp-117-508">5</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Hutchinson</surname>
<given-names>Thomas</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="af6-ehp-117-508">6</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Kovats</surname>
<given-names>R. Sari</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="af7-ehp-117-508">7</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Leonardi</surname>
<given-names>Giovanni</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="af8-ehp-117-508">8</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Levy</surname>
<given-names>Leonard S.</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="af9-ehp-117-508">9</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Nichols</surname>
<given-names>Gordon</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="af8-ehp-117-508">8</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Parsons</surname>
<given-names>Simon A.</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="af9-ehp-117-508">9</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Potts</surname>
<given-names>Laura</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="af10-ehp-117-508">10</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Stone</surname>
<given-names>David</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="af11-ehp-117-508">11</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Topp</surname>
<given-names>Edward</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="af12-ehp-117-508">12</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Turley</surname>
<given-names>David B.</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="af2-ehp-117-508">2</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Walsh</surname>
<given-names>Kerry</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="af3-ehp-117-508">3</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Wellington</surname>
<given-names>Elizabeth M.H.</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="af13-ehp-117-508">13</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Williams</surname>
<given-names>Richard J.</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="af14-ehp-117-508">14</xref>
</contrib>
</contrib-group>
<aff id="af1-ehp-117-508"><label>1</label>
University of York, Heslington, York, United Kingdom;</aff>
<aff id="af2-ehp-117-508"><label>2</label>
Central Science Laboratory, Sand Hutton, York, United Kingdom;</aff>
<aff id="af3-ehp-117-508"><label>3</label>
Environment Agency, Wallingford, United Kingdom;</aff>
<aff id="af4-ehp-117-508"><label>4</label>
Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, United Kingdom;</aff>
<aff id="af5-ehp-117-508"><label>5</label>
Lancaster University, Lancaster, United Kingdom;</aff>
<aff id="af6-ehp-117-508"><label>6</label>
Plymouth Marine Laboratory, Plymouth, United Kingdom;</aff>
<aff id="af7-ehp-117-508"><label>7</label>
London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom;</aff>
<aff id="af8-ehp-117-508"><label>8</label>
Health Protection Agency, London, United Kingdom;</aff>
<aff id="af9-ehp-117-508"><label>9</label>
Cranfield University, Cranfield, United Kingdom;</aff>
<aff id="af10-ehp-117-508"><label>10</label>
York St. John University, York, United Kingdom;</aff>
<aff id="af11-ehp-117-508"><label>11</label>
Natural England, Peterborough, United Kingdom;</aff>
<aff id="af12-ehp-117-508"><label>12</label>
Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada, London, Canada;</aff>
<aff id="af13-ehp-117-508"><label>13</label>
University of Warwick, Warwick, United Kingdom;</aff>
<aff id="af14-ehp-117-508"><label>14</label>
Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Wallingford, United Kingdom</aff>
<author-notes><corresp id="c1-ehp-117-508">Address correspondence to A. Boxall, EcoChemistry Team, University of York/CSL, Sand Hutton, York, YO41 1LZ, UK. Telephone: 44-1904-462142., Fax: 44-1904-462438., E-mail:
<email>a.boxall@csl.gov.uk</email>
</corresp>
<fn><p>The authors declare they have no competing financial interests.</p>
</fn>
</author-notes>
<pub-date pub-type="ppub"><month>4</month>
<year>2009</year>
</pub-date>
<pub-date pub-type="epub"><day>10</day>
<month>12</month>
<year>2008</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>117</volume>
<issue>4</issue>
<fpage>508</fpage>
<lpage>514</lpage>
<history><date date-type="received"><day>11</day>
<month>8</month>
<year>2008</year>
</date>
<date date-type="accepted"><day>10</day>
<month>12</month>
<year>2008</year>
</date>
</history>
<permissions><copyright-year>2009</copyright-year>
<license xlink:href="http://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/mark/1.0/" license-type="public-domain"><license-p>Publication of EHP lies in the public domain and is therefore without copyright. All text from EHP may be reprinted freely. Use of materials published in EHP should be acknowledged (for example, ?Reproduced with permission from Environmental Health Perspectives?); pertinent reference information should be provided for the article from which the material was reproduced. Articles from EHP, especially the News section, may contain photographs or illustrations copyrighted by other commercial organizations or individuals that may not be used without obtaining prior approval from the holder of the copyright. </license-p>
</license>
</permissions>
<abstract><sec><title>Objective</title>
<p>Climate change is likely to affect the nature of pathogens and chemicals in the environment and their fate and transport. Future risks of pathogens and chemicals could therefore be very different from those of today. In this review, we assess the implications of climate change for changes in human exposures to pathogens and chemicals in agricultural systems in the United Kingdom and discuss the subsequent effects on health impacts.</p>
</sec>
<sec><title>Data sources</title>
<p>In this review, we used expert input and considered literature on climate change; health effects resulting from exposure to pathogens and chemicals arising from agriculture; inputs of chemicals and pathogens to agricultural systems; and human exposure pathways for pathogens and chemicals in agricultural systems.</p>
</sec>
<sec><title>Data synthesis</title>
<p>We established the current evidence base for health effects of chemicals and pathogens in the agricultural environment; determined the potential implications of climate change on chemical and pathogen inputs in agricultural systems; and explored the effects of climate change on environmental transport and fate of different contaminant types. We combined these data to assess the implications of climate change in terms of indirect human exposure to pathogens and chemicals in agricultural systems. We then developed recommendations on future research and policy changes to manage any adverse increases in risks.</p>
</sec>
<sec><title>Conclusions</title>
<p>Overall, climate change is likely to increase human exposures to agricultural contaminants. The magnitude of the increases will be highly dependent on the contaminant type. Risks from many pathogens and particulate and particle-associated contaminants could increase significantly. These increases in exposure can, however, be managed for the most part through targeted research and policy changes.</p>
</sec>
</abstract>
<kwd-group><kwd>agriculture</kwd>
<kwd>climate change</kwd>
<kwd>environmental fate</kwd>
<kwd>health risks</kwd>
<kwd>nutrients</kwd>
<kwd>pathogens</kwd>
<kwd>pesticides</kwd>
</kwd-group>
</article-meta>
</front>
<floats-group><fig id="f1-ehp-117-508" position="float"><label>Figure 1</label>
<caption><p>Predicted impacts of climate change on major environmental pathways for human exposure to pathogens and chemicals from agriculture. Letters indicate which contaminant classes are likely to be transported via an individual pathway: P, particulate (e.g., bacteria, viruses, spores, engineered nano-particles); PA, particle-associated (e.g., hydrophobic organics, ammonium, heavy metals); S, soluble contaminant (nitrates, group 1 and 2 elements, reactive phosphorus, hydrophilic pesticides); V, volatile contaminant. Larger and smaller letters indicate the greater and lesser extent, respectively, to which each contaminant type will be transported by the pathway (e.g., methane, nitrous oxide, ammonia, sulfides).</p>
</caption>
<graphic xlink:href="ehp-117-508f1"></graphic>
</fig>
<fig id="f2-ehp-117-508" position="float"><label>Figure 2</label>
<caption><p>Possible time lines and strategy for research, surveillance, and risk mitigation for the predicted increases in human exposure to biological and chemical contaminants from agriculture.</p>
</caption>
<graphic xlink:href="ehp-117-508f2"></graphic>
</fig>
<table-wrap id="t1-ehp-117-508" position="float"><label>Table 1</label>
<caption><p>Potential exposure routes and health effects of chemical and biological contaminants associated with agricultural activities.</p>
</caption>
<table frame="hsides" rules="groups"><thead><tr><th align="left" rowspan="1" colspan="1">Contaminant type</th>
<th align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">Potential exposure routes</th>
<th align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">Level of knowledge of exposure</th>
<th align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">Health effects associated with exposure</th>
<th align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">Level of evidence</th>
<th align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">Degree of control in the UK</th>
<th align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">References</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody><tr><td colspan="7" align="left" rowspan="1">Chemicals
<hr></hr>
</td>
</tr>
<tr><td align="left" rowspan="1" colspan="1"> Heavy metals (e.g., cadmium)</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">F</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">High</td>
<td align="left" rowspan="1" colspan="1">Renal and hepatic toxicity</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">I</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">High</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1"><xref ref-type="table-fn" rid="tfn2-ehp-117-508">a</xref>
</td>
</tr>
<tr><td align="left" rowspan="1" colspan="1"> Dioxins</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">F</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">High</td>
<td align="left" rowspan="1" colspan="1">Reproductive effects, carcinogenicity, immunotoxicity, endocrine disruption, neurologic effects, chloracne</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">I</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">High</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1"><xref ref-type="table-fn" rid="tfn3-ehp-117-508">d</xref>
,<xref ref-type="table-fn" rid="tfn4-ehp-117-508">c</xref>
</td>
</tr>
<tr><td align="left" rowspan="1" colspan="1"> Mycotoxins (e.g., aflatoxins, ochratoxins)</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">F</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">Med</td>
<td align="left" rowspan="1" colspan="1">Stunting of growth, liver cancers, aflatoxicosis, estrogenic effects</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">C</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">High</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1"><xref ref-type="table-fn" rid="tfn5-ehp-117-508">d</xref>
</td>
</tr>
<tr><td align="left" rowspan="1" colspan="1"> Nitrate</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">DW</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">High</td>
<td align="left" rowspan="1" colspan="1">Methemoglobinemia, bladder, stomach, and prostrate cancers, non<sub>-</sub>
Hodgkin lymphoma</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">I</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">High</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1"><xref ref-type="table-fn" rid="tfn6-ehp-117-508">e</xref>
,<xref ref-type="table-fn" rid="tfn7-ehp-117-508">f</xref>
,<xref ref-type="table-fn" rid="tfn8-ehp-117-508">g</xref>
</td>
</tr>
<tr><td align="left" rowspan="1" colspan="1"> Polychlorinated biphenyls</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">F</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">High</td>
<td align="left" rowspan="1" colspan="1">Reproductive effects, congenital abnormalities</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">L</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">High</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1"><xref ref-type="table-fn" rid="tfn3-ehp-117-508">b</xref>
,<xref ref-type="table-fn" rid="tfn9-ehp-117-508">h</xref>
,<xref ref-type="table-fn" rid="tfn10-ehp-117-508">i</xref>
</td>
</tr>
<tr><td align="left" rowspan="1" colspan="1"> Pesticides</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">DW, F, A</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">High</td>
<td align="left" rowspan="1" colspan="1">Reduced eye<sub>–</sub>
hand coordination, effects on cognitive abilities, developmental toxicity, estrogenic effects, antiandrogenic effects, congenital abnormalities, reduced stamina, birth malformations, cryptorchidism in male children, pregnancy loss, Parkinson’s disease</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">I</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">High</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1"><xref ref-type="table-fn" rid="tfn3-ehp-117-508">b</xref>
,<xref ref-type="table-fn" rid="tfn7-ehp-117-508">f</xref>
,<xref ref-type="table-fn" rid="tfn9-ehp-117-508">h</xref>
,<xref ref-type="table-fn" rid="tfn11-ehp-117-508">j</xref>
,<xref ref-type="table-fn" rid="tfn12-ehp-117-508">k</xref>
</td>
</tr>
<tr><td align="left" rowspan="1" colspan="1"> Pharmaceuticals</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">DW, F</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">Low</td>
<td align="left" rowspan="1" colspan="1">Estrogenic effects, carcinogenicity</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">L</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">Low</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1"><xref ref-type="table-fn" rid="tfn13-ehp-117-508">l</xref>
</td>
</tr>
<tr><td align="left" rowspan="1" colspan="1"> Phycotoxins (e.g., microcystins)</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">DW, RW, F</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">Med</td>
<td align="left" rowspan="1" colspan="1">Paralysis, gastrointestinal illness, amnesia, neurotoxicity, liver damage</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">C</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">High</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1"><xref ref-type="table-fn" rid="tfn7-ehp-117-508">f</xref>
,<xref ref-type="table-fn" rid="tfn14-ehp-117-508">m</xref>
</td>
</tr>
<tr><td align="left" rowspan="1" colspan="1"> Plant toxins (e.g., glycoalkaloids, anisatin)</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">F</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">Low</td>
<td align="left" rowspan="1" colspan="1">Liver cancers, cirrhosis</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">I</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">Low</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1"><xref ref-type="table-fn" rid="tfn14-ehp-117-508">m</xref>
</td>
</tr>
<tr><td align="left" rowspan="1" colspan="1"> Veterinary medicines</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">DW, F, A</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">Low</td>
<td align="left" rowspan="1" colspan="1">Selection of antimicrobial resistance</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">L</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">Low</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1"><xref ref-type="table-fn" rid="tfn15-ehp-117-508">n</xref>
,<xref ref-type="table-fn" rid="tfn16-ehp-117-508">o</xref>
,<xref ref-type="table-fn" rid="tfn17-ehp-117-508">p</xref>
</td>
</tr>
<tr><td align="left" rowspan="1" colspan="1"> Ozone</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">A</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">Med</td>
<td align="left" rowspan="1" colspan="1">Asthma</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">I</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">Low</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1"></td>
</tr>
<tr><td colspan="7" align="left" rowspan="1"><hr></hr>
Bacteria and viruses
<hr></hr>
</td>
</tr>
<tr><td align="left" rowspan="1" colspan="1"> <italic>Cryptosporidium</italic>
</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">DW, RW</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">Med</td>
<td align="left" rowspan="1" colspan="1">Self-limiting diarrhea</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">C</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">High</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1"><xref ref-type="table-fn" rid="tfn7-ehp-117-508">f</xref>
</td>
</tr>
<tr><td align="left" rowspan="1" colspan="1"> <italic>Giardia</italic>
</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">DW, RW</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">Med</td>
<td align="left" rowspan="1" colspan="1">Gastrointestinal illness</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">C</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">High</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1"><xref ref-type="table-fn" rid="tfn7-ehp-117-508">f</xref>
</td>
</tr>
<tr><td align="left" rowspan="1" colspan="1"> <italic>Campylobacter</italic>
</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">F</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">Med</td>
<td align="left" rowspan="1" colspan="1">Gastrointestinal illness</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">C</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">Med</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1"><xref ref-type="table-fn" rid="tfn7-ehp-117-508">f</xref>
</td>
</tr>
<tr><td align="left" rowspan="1" colspan="1"><italic> Salmonella</italic>
</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">F</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">Med</td>
<td align="left" rowspan="1" colspan="1">Gastrointestinal illness</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">C</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">High</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1"><xref ref-type="table-fn" rid="tfn7-ehp-117-508">f</xref>
</td>
</tr>
<tr><td align="left" rowspan="1" colspan="1"><italic> Plasmodium</italic>
</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">V</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">High</td>
<td align="left" rowspan="1" colspan="1">Malaria</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">C</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">NA</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1"><xref ref-type="table-fn" rid="tfn18-ehp-117-508">q</xref>
,<xref ref-type="table-fn" rid="tfn19-ehp-117-508">r</xref>
</td>
</tr>
<tr><td align="left" rowspan="1" colspan="1"><italic> Borrelia</italic>
</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">V</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">Med</td>
<td align="left" rowspan="1" colspan="1">Lyme disease</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">C</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">High</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1"><xref ref-type="table-fn" rid="tfn19-ehp-117-508">r</xref>
</td>
</tr>
<tr><td colspan="7" align="left" rowspan="1"><hr></hr>
Other
<hr></hr>
</td>
</tr>
<tr><td align="left" rowspan="1" colspan="1"> Pollen</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">A</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">Med</td>
<td align="left" rowspan="1" colspan="1">Allergies, asthma</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">C</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">Low</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1"><xref ref-type="table-fn" rid="tfn20-ehp-117-508">s</xref>
,<xref ref-type="table-fn" rid="tfn21-ehp-117-508">t</xref>
</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<table-wrap-foot><fn id="tfn1-ehp-117-508"><p>Abbreviations: A, air; C, conclusive evidence linking health end point to environmental exposure; DW, drinking water; F, food; I, inconclusive evidence linking health end point to environmental exposure; L, limited evidence linking health end point to environmental exposure; Med, medium; NA, not applicable; RW, recreational water contact; V, vector borne. We have attempted, based on the available literature, to indicate the level of evidence that suggests that environmental exposure could cause the identified effect(s); we also indicate the level of control (e.g., through regulatory monitoring of food and water residues, water treatment, and requirements for risk assessment) in the United Kingdom.</p>
</fn>
<fn id="tfn2-ehp-117-508"><label>a</label>
<p><xref rid="b21-ehp-117-508" ref-type="bibr">Deportes et al. (1995)</xref>
.</p>
</fn>
<fn id="tfn3-ehp-117-508"><label>b</label>
<p><xref rid="b35-ehp-117-508" ref-type="bibr">Goldman and Koduru (2000)</xref>
.</p>
</fn>
<fn id="tfn4-ehp-117-508"><label>c</label>
<p><xref rid="b44-ehp-117-508" ref-type="bibr">Huwe (2002)</xref>
.</p>
</fn>
<fn id="tfn5-ehp-117-508"><label>d</label>
<p><xref rid="b40-ehp-117-508" ref-type="bibr">Hawkes and Ruel (2006)</xref>
.</p>
</fn>
<fn id="tfn6-ehp-117-508"><label>e</label>
<p><xref rid="b15-ehp-117-508" ref-type="bibr">Cantor (1997)</xref>
.</p>
</fn>
<fn id="tfn7-ehp-117-508"><label>f</label>
<p><xref rid="b31-ehp-117-508" ref-type="bibr">Fawell and Nieuwenhuijsen (2003)</xref>
.</p>
</fn>
<fn id="tfn8-ehp-117-508"><label>g</label>
<p><xref rid="b7-ehp-117-508" ref-type="bibr">Boffetta and Nyberg (2003)</xref>
.</p>
</fn>
<fn id="tfn9-ehp-117-508"><label>h</label>
<p><xref rid="b22-ehp-117-508" ref-type="bibr">Dolk and Vrijheid (2003)</xref>
.</p>
</fn>
<fn id="tfn10-ehp-117-508"><label>i</label>
<p><xref rid="b46-ehp-117-508" ref-type="bibr">Joffe (2003)</xref>
.</p>
</fn>
<fn id="tfn11-ehp-117-508"><label>j</label>
<p><xref rid="b23-ehp-117-508" ref-type="bibr">Donald et al. (2007)</xref>
.</p>
</fn>
<fn id="tfn12-ehp-117-508"><label>k</label>
<p><xref rid="b69-ehp-117-508" ref-type="bibr">Stillerman et al. (2008)</xref>
.</p>
</fn>
<fn id="tfn13-ehp-117-508"><label>l</label>
<p><xref rid="b48-ehp-117-508" ref-type="bibr">Kinney et al. (2006)</xref>
.</p>
</fn>
<fn id="tfn14-ehp-117-508"><label>m</label>
<p><xref rid="b73-ehp-117-508" ref-type="bibr">van Egmond (2004)</xref>
.</p>
</fn>
<fn id="tfn15-ehp-117-508"><label>n</label>
<p><xref rid="b11-ehp-117-508" ref-type="bibr">Boxall et al. (2003)</xref>
.</p>
</fn>
<fn id="tfn16-ehp-117-508"><label>o</label>
<p><xref rid="b10-ehp-117-508" ref-type="bibr">Boxall et al. (2006)</xref>
.</p>
</fn>
<fn id="tfn17-ehp-117-508"><label>p</label>
<p><xref rid="b37-ehp-117-508" ref-type="bibr">Hamscher et al. (2003)</xref>
.</p>
</fn>
<fn id="tfn18-ehp-117-508"><label>q</label>
<p><xref rid="b72-ehp-117-508" ref-type="bibr">van den Berg et al. (2007)</xref>
.</p>
</fn>
<fn id="tfn19-ehp-117-508"><label>r</label>
<p><xref rid="b34-ehp-117-508" ref-type="bibr">Githecko et al. (2000)</xref>
.</p>
</fn>
<fn id="tfn20-ehp-117-508"><label>s</label>
<p><xref rid="b4-ehp-117-508" ref-type="bibr">Beggs and Bambrick (2005)</xref>
.</p>
</fn>
<fn id="tfn21-ehp-117-508"><label>t</label>
<p><xref rid="b65-ehp-117-508" ref-type="bibr">Shea et al. (2008)</xref>
.</p>
</fn>
</table-wrap-foot>
</table-wrap>
<table-wrap id="t2-ehp-117-508" position="float"><label>Table 2</label>
<caption><p>Impacts of climate change on the inputs of chemicals and pathogens to agricultural systems.</p>
</caption>
<table frame="hsides" rules="rows"><thead><tr><th align="left" rowspan="1" colspan="1">Contaminant source</th>
<th align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">Contaminant type</th>
<th align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">Effect of climate change on input</th>
<th align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">Other drivers</th>
<th align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">Effect on input</th>
<th align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">References</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody><tr><td align="left" rowspan="1" colspan="1">Plant protection products</td>
<td align="left" rowspan="1" colspan="1">Herbicides, insecticides, fungicides</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">Increased use due to increased abundance and activity of plant diseases</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">Move to organic farming will reduce inputs; move to biofuels will increase inputs</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">High</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1"><xref rid="b6-ehp-117-508" ref-type="bibr">Bloomfield et al. 2006</xref>
; <xref rid="b14-ehp-117-508" ref-type="bibr">Cannon 1998</xref>
</td>
</tr>
<tr><td align="left" rowspan="1" colspan="1">Fertilizers</td>
<td align="left" rowspan="1" colspan="1">NO<sub>3</sub>
, PO<sub>4</sub>
</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">Intensification of cropping will increase use; decreases in soil organic carbon will increase use; increased leaching may increase use; more efficient plant uptake will reduce use</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">Increased manufacturing costs may reduce use</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">Medium</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">—</td>
</tr>
<tr><td align="left" rowspan="1" colspan="1">Sewage sludge</td>
<td align="left" rowspan="1" colspan="1">Heavy metals, pharmaceuticals, industrial contaminants, pathogens, nutrients</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">Intensification of cropping will increase use; decreases in soil organic carbon will increase the need for fertilizer use</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">Increased economic value of biosolids may lead to lower inputs</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">Medium</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">—</td>
</tr>
<tr><td align="left" rowspan="1" colspan="1">Veterinary medicines</td>
<td align="left" rowspan="1" colspan="1">Antibacterials, parasiticides</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">Intensification of livestock production will increase use; increase in disease pressures will increase use</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">Movement of farm animals may decrease</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">High</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1"><xref rid="b33-ehp-117-508" ref-type="bibr">Gale et al. 2007</xref>
</td>
</tr>
<tr><td align="left" rowspan="1" colspan="1">Irrigation water</td>
<td align="left" rowspan="1" colspan="1">Pathogens, heavy metals, pesticides, other organic contaminants</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">Irrigation of crops likely to increase during dry periods</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">—</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">High</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1"><xref rid="b63-ehp-117-508" ref-type="bibr">Rose et al. 2001</xref>
</td>
</tr>
<tr><td align="left" rowspan="1" colspan="1">Flooding</td>
<td align="left" rowspan="1" colspan="1">Heavy metals, dioxins, polychlorinated biphenyls</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">Increased flooding may mobilize legacy contaminants and transport them onto agricultural land</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">—</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">Medium</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1"><xref rid="b38-ehp-117-508" ref-type="bibr">Harmon and Wyatt 2008</xref>
; <xref rid="b42-ehp-117-508" ref-type="bibr">Hilscherova et al. 2007</xref>
</td>
</tr>
<tr><td align="left" rowspan="1" colspan="1">Vectors</td>
<td align="left" rowspan="1" colspan="1">Bacteria, viruses</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">Ranges of selected vectors change; new diseases introduced to the UK</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">—</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">High</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1"><xref rid="b33-ehp-117-508" ref-type="bibr">Gale et al. 2007</xref>
</td>
</tr>
<tr><td align="left" rowspan="1" colspan="1">Aerial deposition</td>
<td align="left" rowspan="1" colspan="1">Pesticides</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">Increased aerial transport of volatile pesticides between sites, increased soil blow</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">—</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">Medium</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">—</td>
</tr>
<tr><td align="left" rowspan="1" colspan="1">Changes in bioavailability</td>
<td align="left" rowspan="1" colspan="1">Dioxins, mercury, nutrients</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">—</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">—</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">High</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1"><xref rid="b8-ehp-117-508" ref-type="bibr">Booth and Zeller 2005</xref>
</td>
</tr>
<tr><td align="left" rowspan="1" colspan="1">Compost</td>
<td align="left" rowspan="1" colspan="1">Heavy metals, dioxins, polychlorinated biphenyls</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">—</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">Move to recycling increases inputs</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">High</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1"><xref rid="b21-ehp-117-508" ref-type="bibr">Deportes et al. 1995</xref>
</td>
</tr>
<tr><td align="left" rowspan="1" colspan="1">Contaminants from plants and bacteria</td>
<td align="left" rowspan="1" colspan="1">Pollen, mycotoxins</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">Affects distribution, quantity, and quality of autollergens; increases production of mycotoxins</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">—</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">High</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1"><xref rid="b4-ehp-117-508" ref-type="bibr">Beggs and Bambrick 2005</xref>
; <xref rid="b65-ehp-117-508" ref-type="bibr">Shea et al. 2008</xref>
</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<table-wrap-foot><fn id="tfn22-ehp-117-508"><p>We developed the assessment of effects on input based on our current knowledge.</p>
</fn>
</table-wrap-foot>
</table-wrap>
<table-wrap id="t3-ehp-117-508" position="float"><label>Table 3</label>
<caption><p>Effects of climate change on fate processes for biological and chemical contaminants.</p>
</caption>
<table frame="hsides" rules="groups"><thead><tr><th align="left" rowspan="1" colspan="1">Fate/process</th>
<th align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">Impact of climate change</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody><tr><td colspan="2" align="left" valign="top" rowspan="1">Biological
<hr></hr>
</td>
</tr>
<tr><td align="left" valign="top" rowspan="1" colspan="1"> Death</td>
<td align="left" valign="top" rowspan="1" colspan="1">Drier summers increase death rate for soil microbes
<break></break>
Temperature extremes increase death rate
<break></break>
Higher UV radiation levels increase death
<break></break>
Flooding and anaerobic conditions decrease death</td>
</tr>
<tr><td align="left" valign="top" rowspan="1" colspan="1"> Growth</td>
<td align="left" valign="top" rowspan="1" colspan="1">Increased temperature and wetness increase growth</td>
</tr>
<tr><td align="left" valign="top" rowspan="1" colspan="1"> Attenuation (loses active gene)</td>
<td align="left" valign="top" rowspan="1" colspan="1">Uncertain</td>
</tr>
<tr><td align="left" valign="top" rowspan="1" colspan="1"> Potentiation (gene transfer)</td>
<td align="left" valign="top" rowspan="1" colspan="1">Uncertain</td>
</tr>
<tr><td align="left" valign="top" rowspan="1" colspan="1"> Adherence</td>
<td align="left" valign="top" rowspan="1" colspan="1">Not sensitive</td>
</tr>
<tr><td colspan="2" align="left" valign="top" rowspan="1"><hr></hr>
Chemical
<hr></hr>
</td>
</tr>
<tr><td align="left" valign="top" rowspan="1" colspan="1"> Hydrolysis</td>
<td align="left" valign="top" rowspan="1" colspan="1">Not sensitive</td>
</tr>
<tr><td align="left" valign="top" rowspan="1" colspan="1"> Photolysis</td>
<td align="left" valign="top" rowspan="1" colspan="1">Increases as UV radiation increases in summer</td>
</tr>
<tr><td align="left" valign="top" rowspan="1" colspan="1"> Biodegradation/transformation</td>
<td align="left" valign="top" rowspan="1" colspan="1">Higher temperatures increase rate
<break></break>
Wetter winters increase rate
<break></break>
Drier summers decrease rate</td>
</tr>
<tr><td align="left" valign="top" rowspan="1" colspan="1"> Sequestration</td>
<td align="left" valign="top" rowspan="1" colspan="1">Lower for contaminants that sorb to soil organic matter
<break></break>
Might be affected by drier soils
<break></break>
Small temperature effect</td>
</tr>
<tr><td align="left" valign="top" rowspan="1" colspan="1"> Volatilization</td>
<td align="left" valign="top" rowspan="1" colspan="1">Increases with increasing temperature</td>
</tr>
<tr><td align="left" valign="top" rowspan="1" colspan="1"> Bioconcentration</td>
<td align="left" valign="top" rowspan="1" colspan="1">Increases with increasing temperature</td>
</tr>
<tr><td align="left" valign="top" rowspan="1" colspan="1"> Biomagnification</td>
<td align="left" valign="top" rowspan="1" colspan="1">Not sensitive</td>
</tr>
<tr><td align="left" valign="top" rowspan="1" colspan="1"> Dilution</td>
<td align="left" valign="top" rowspan="1" colspan="1">Increases in periods of high rainfall
<break></break>
Decreases in prolonged dry periods</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<table-wrap-foot><fn id="tfn23-ehp-117-508"><p>UV, ultraviolet.</p>
</fn>
</table-wrap-foot>
</table-wrap>
</floats-group>
</pmc>
<affiliations><list><country><li>Canada</li>
<li>Royaume-Uni</li>
</country>
<region><li>Angleterre</li>
<li>Grand Londres</li>
</region>
<settlement><li>Londres</li>
</settlement>
</list>
<tree><country name="Royaume-Uni"><noRegion><name sortKey="Boxall, Alistair B A" sort="Boxall, Alistair B A" uniqKey="Boxall A" first="Alistair B. A." last="Boxall">Alistair B. A. Boxall</name>
</noRegion>
<name sortKey="Beulke, Sabine" sort="Beulke, Sabine" uniqKey="Beulke S" first="Sabine" last="Beulke">Sabine Beulke</name>
<name sortKey="Boucard, Tatiana" sort="Boucard, Tatiana" uniqKey="Boucard T" first="Tatiana" last="Boucard">Tatiana Boucard</name>
<name sortKey="Boxall, Alistair B A" sort="Boxall, Alistair B A" uniqKey="Boxall A" first="Alistair B. A." last="Boxall">Alistair B. A. Boxall</name>
<name sortKey="Burgin, Laura" sort="Burgin, Laura" uniqKey="Burgin L" first="Laura" last="Burgin">Laura Burgin</name>
<name sortKey="Falloon, Peter D" sort="Falloon, Peter D" uniqKey="Falloon P" first="Peter D." last="Falloon">Peter D. Falloon</name>
<name sortKey="Hardy, Anthony" sort="Hardy, Anthony" uniqKey="Hardy A" first="Anthony" last="Hardy">Anthony Hardy</name>
<name sortKey="Haygarth, Philip M" sort="Haygarth, Philip M" uniqKey="Haygarth P" first="Philip M." last="Haygarth">Philip M. Haygarth</name>
<name sortKey="Hutchinson, Thomas" sort="Hutchinson, Thomas" uniqKey="Hutchinson T" first="Thomas" last="Hutchinson">Thomas Hutchinson</name>
<name sortKey="Kovats, R Sari" sort="Kovats, R Sari" uniqKey="Kovats R" first="R. Sari" last="Kovats">R. Sari Kovats</name>
<name sortKey="Leonardi, Giovanni" sort="Leonardi, Giovanni" uniqKey="Leonardi G" first="Giovanni" last="Leonardi">Giovanni Leonardi</name>
<name sortKey="Levy, Leonard S" sort="Levy, Leonard S" uniqKey="Levy L" first="Leonard S." last="Levy">Leonard S. Levy</name>
<name sortKey="Nichols, Gordon" sort="Nichols, Gordon" uniqKey="Nichols G" first="Gordon" last="Nichols">Gordon Nichols</name>
<name sortKey="Parsons, Simon A" sort="Parsons, Simon A" uniqKey="Parsons S" first="Simon A." last="Parsons">Simon A. Parsons</name>
<name sortKey="Potts, Laura" sort="Potts, Laura" uniqKey="Potts L" first="Laura" last="Potts">Laura Potts</name>
<name sortKey="Stone, David" sort="Stone, David" uniqKey="Stone D" first="David" last="Stone">David Stone</name>
<name sortKey="Turley, David B" sort="Turley, David B" uniqKey="Turley D" first="David B." last="Turley">David B. Turley</name>
<name sortKey="Walsh, Kerry" sort="Walsh, Kerry" uniqKey="Walsh K" first="Kerry" last="Walsh">Kerry Walsh</name>
<name sortKey="Wellington, Elizabeth M H" sort="Wellington, Elizabeth M H" uniqKey="Wellington E" first="Elizabeth M. H." last="Wellington">Elizabeth M. H. Wellington</name>
<name sortKey="Williams, Richard J" sort="Williams, Richard J" uniqKey="Williams R" first="Richard J." last="Williams">Richard J. Williams</name>
</country>
<country name="Canada"><region name="Angleterre"><name sortKey="Topp, Edward" sort="Topp, Edward" uniqKey="Topp E" first="Edward" last="Topp">Edward Topp</name>
</region>
</country>
</tree>
</affiliations>
</record>
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