Incorporation of uncertainty in health economic modelling studies
Identifieur interne : 000425 ( PascalFrancis/Curation ); précédent : 000424; suivant : 000426Incorporation of uncertainty in health economic modelling studies
Auteurs : Anthony O'Hagan [Royaume-Uni] ; Christopher Mccabe [Royaume-Uni] ; Ron Akehurst [Royaume-Uni] ; Alan Brennan [Royaume-Uni] ; Andrew Briggs [Royaume-Uni] ; Karl Claxton [Royaume-Uni] ; Elisabeth Fenwick [Royaume-Uni] ; Dennis Fryback [États-Unis] ; Mark Sculpher [Royaume-Uni] ; David Spiegelhalter [Royaume-Uni] ; Andrew Willan [Canada]Source :
- PharmacoEconomics : (Auckland) [ 1170-7690 ] ; 2005.
Descripteurs français
- Pascal (Inist)
- Wicri :
- topic : Modèle économique, Homme, Santé publique.
English descriptors
- KwdEn :
Abstract
In a recent leading article in PharmacoEconomics, Nuijten described some methods for incorporating uncertainty into health economic models and for utilising the information on uncertainty regarding the cost effectiveness of a therapy in resource allocation decision-making. His proposals are found to suffer from serious flaws in statistical and health economic reasoning. Nuijten's suggestions for incorporating uncertainty: (a) wrongly interpret the p-value as the probability that the null hypothesis is true; (b) represent this probability wrongly by truncating the input distribution; and (c) in the specific example of an antiparkinsonian drug uses a completely inappropriate p-value of 0.05 when the null hypothesis would, in reality, be emphatically disproved by the data. His suggestions regarding minimum important differences in cost effectiveness: (a) introduce areas of indifference that suggest inappropriate reliance on cost minimisation while failing to recognise that decisions should be based on expected costs versus benefits; and (b) offer no guidance on how the probabilities associated with these areas could be used in decision-making. Furthermore, Nuijten's model for Parkinson's disease is over-simplified to the point of providing a bad example of modelling practice, which may mislead the readers of PharmacoEconomics. The rationale for this paper is to ensure that readers do not apply inappropriate analyses as a result of following the proposals contained in Nuijten's paper. In addition to a detailed critique of Nuijten's proposals, we provide brief summaries of the currently accepted best practice in cost-effectiveness decision-making under uncertainty.
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<front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en">In a recent leading article in PharmacoEconomics, Nuijten described some methods for incorporating uncertainty into health economic models and for utilising the information on uncertainty regarding the cost effectiveness of a therapy in resource allocation decision-making. His proposals are found to suffer from serious flaws in statistical and health economic reasoning. Nuijten's suggestions for incorporating uncertainty: (a) wrongly interpret the p-value as the probability that the null hypothesis is true; (b) represent this probability wrongly by truncating the input distribution; and (c) in the specific example of an antiparkinsonian drug uses a completely inappropriate p-value of 0.05 when the null hypothesis would, in reality, be emphatically disproved by the data. His suggestions regarding minimum important differences in cost effectiveness: (a) introduce areas of indifference that suggest inappropriate reliance on cost minimisation while failing to recognise that decisions should be based on expected costs versus benefits; and (b) offer no guidance on how the probabilities associated with these areas could be used in decision-making. Furthermore, Nuijten's model for Parkinson's disease is over-simplified to the point of providing a bad example of modelling practice, which may mislead the readers of PharmacoEconomics. The rationale for this paper is to ensure that readers do not apply inappropriate analyses as a result of following the proposals contained in Nuijten's paper. In addition to a detailed critique of Nuijten's proposals, we provide brief summaries of the currently accepted best practice in cost-effectiveness decision-making under uncertainty.</div>
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</fA43>
<fA44><s0>0000</s0>
<s1>© 2005 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.</s1>
</fA44>
<fA45><s0>33 ref.</s0>
</fA45>
<fA47 i1="01" i2="1"><s0>05-0340420</s0>
</fA47>
<fA60><s1>P</s1>
</fA60>
<fA61><s0>A</s0>
</fA61>
<fA64 i1="01" i2="1"><s0>PharmacoEconomics : (Auckland)</s0>
</fA64>
<fA66 i1="01"><s0>NZL</s0>
</fA66>
<fC01 i1="01" l="ENG"><s0>In a recent leading article in PharmacoEconomics, Nuijten described some methods for incorporating uncertainty into health economic models and for utilising the information on uncertainty regarding the cost effectiveness of a therapy in resource allocation decision-making. His proposals are found to suffer from serious flaws in statistical and health economic reasoning. Nuijten's suggestions for incorporating uncertainty: (a) wrongly interpret the p-value as the probability that the null hypothesis is true; (b) represent this probability wrongly by truncating the input distribution; and (c) in the specific example of an antiparkinsonian drug uses a completely inappropriate p-value of 0.05 when the null hypothesis would, in reality, be emphatically disproved by the data. His suggestions regarding minimum important differences in cost effectiveness: (a) introduce areas of indifference that suggest inappropriate reliance on cost minimisation while failing to recognise that decisions should be based on expected costs versus benefits; and (b) offer no guidance on how the probabilities associated with these areas could be used in decision-making. Furthermore, Nuijten's model for Parkinson's disease is over-simplified to the point of providing a bad example of modelling practice, which may mislead the readers of PharmacoEconomics. The rationale for this paper is to ensure that readers do not apply inappropriate analyses as a result of following the proposals contained in Nuijten's paper. In addition to a detailed critique of Nuijten's proposals, we provide brief summaries of the currently accepted best practice in cost-effectiveness decision-making under uncertainty.</s0>
</fC01>
<fC02 i1="01" i2="X"><s0>002B17G</s0>
</fC02>
<fC02 i1="02" i2="X"><s0>002B02B06</s0>
</fC02>
<fC03 i1="01" i2="X" l="FRE"><s0>Economie santé</s0>
<s5>01</s5>
</fC03>
<fC03 i1="01" i2="X" l="ENG"><s0>Health economy</s0>
<s5>01</s5>
</fC03>
<fC03 i1="01" i2="X" l="SPA"><s0>Economía salud</s0>
<s5>01</s5>
</fC03>
<fC03 i1="02" i2="X" l="FRE"><s0>Analyse coût efficacité</s0>
<s5>02</s5>
</fC03>
<fC03 i1="02" i2="X" l="ENG"><s0>Cost efficiency analysis</s0>
<s5>02</s5>
</fC03>
<fC03 i1="02" i2="X" l="SPA"><s0>Análisis costo eficacia</s0>
<s5>02</s5>
</fC03>
<fC03 i1="03" i2="X" l="FRE"><s0>Prise décision</s0>
<s5>03</s5>
</fC03>
<fC03 i1="03" i2="X" l="ENG"><s0>Decision making</s0>
<s5>03</s5>
</fC03>
<fC03 i1="03" i2="X" l="SPA"><s0>Toma decision</s0>
<s5>03</s5>
</fC03>
<fC03 i1="04" i2="X" l="FRE"><s0>Modèle économique</s0>
<s5>04</s5>
</fC03>
<fC03 i1="04" i2="X" l="ENG"><s0>Economic model</s0>
<s5>04</s5>
</fC03>
<fC03 i1="04" i2="X" l="SPA"><s0>Modelo económico</s0>
<s5>04</s5>
</fC03>
<fC03 i1="05" i2="X" l="FRE"><s0>Incertitude</s0>
<s5>05</s5>
</fC03>
<fC03 i1="05" i2="X" l="ENG"><s0>Uncertainty</s0>
<s5>05</s5>
</fC03>
<fC03 i1="05" i2="X" l="SPA"><s0>Incertidumbre</s0>
<s5>05</s5>
</fC03>
<fC03 i1="06" i2="X" l="FRE"><s0>Parkinson maladie</s0>
<s5>06</s5>
</fC03>
<fC03 i1="06" i2="X" l="ENG"><s0>Parkinson disease</s0>
<s5>06</s5>
</fC03>
<fC03 i1="06" i2="X" l="SPA"><s0>Parkinson enfermedad</s0>
<s5>06</s5>
</fC03>
<fC03 i1="07" i2="X" l="FRE"><s0>Antiparkinsonien</s0>
<s5>07</s5>
</fC03>
<fC03 i1="07" i2="X" l="ENG"><s0>Antiparkinson agent</s0>
<s5>07</s5>
</fC03>
<fC03 i1="07" i2="X" l="SPA"><s0>Antiparkinsoniano</s0>
<s5>07</s5>
</fC03>
<fC03 i1="08" i2="X" l="FRE"><s0>Homme</s0>
<s5>08</s5>
</fC03>
<fC03 i1="08" i2="X" l="ENG"><s0>Human</s0>
<s5>08</s5>
</fC03>
<fC03 i1="08" i2="X" l="SPA"><s0>Hombre</s0>
<s5>08</s5>
</fC03>
<fC03 i1="09" i2="X" l="FRE"><s0>Santé publique</s0>
<s5>09</s5>
</fC03>
<fC03 i1="09" i2="X" l="ENG"><s0>Public health</s0>
<s5>09</s5>
</fC03>
<fC03 i1="09" i2="X" l="SPA"><s0>Salud pública</s0>
<s5>09</s5>
</fC03>
<fC07 i1="01" i2="X" l="FRE"><s0>Encéphale pathologie</s0>
<s5>37</s5>
</fC07>
<fC07 i1="01" i2="X" l="ENG"><s0>Cerebral disorder</s0>
<s5>37</s5>
</fC07>
<fC07 i1="01" i2="X" l="SPA"><s0>Encéfalo patología</s0>
<s5>37</s5>
</fC07>
<fC07 i1="02" i2="X" l="FRE"><s0>Extrapyramidal syndrome</s0>
<s5>38</s5>
</fC07>
<fC07 i1="02" i2="X" l="ENG"><s0>Extrapyramidal syndrome</s0>
<s5>38</s5>
</fC07>
<fC07 i1="02" i2="X" l="SPA"><s0>Extrapiramidal síndrome</s0>
<s5>38</s5>
</fC07>
<fC07 i1="03" i2="X" l="FRE"><s0>Maladie dégénérative</s0>
<s5>39</s5>
</fC07>
<fC07 i1="03" i2="X" l="ENG"><s0>Degenerative disease</s0>
<s5>39</s5>
</fC07>
<fC07 i1="03" i2="X" l="SPA"><s0>Enfermedad degenerativa</s0>
<s5>39</s5>
</fC07>
<fC07 i1="04" i2="X" l="FRE"><s0>Système nerveux central pathologie</s0>
<s5>40</s5>
</fC07>
<fC07 i1="04" i2="X" l="ENG"><s0>Central nervous system disease</s0>
<s5>40</s5>
</fC07>
<fC07 i1="04" i2="X" l="SPA"><s0>Sistema nervosio central patología</s0>
<s5>40</s5>
</fC07>
<fC07 i1="05" i2="X" l="FRE"><s0>Système nerveux pathologie</s0>
<s5>41</s5>
</fC07>
<fC07 i1="05" i2="X" l="ENG"><s0>Nervous system diseases</s0>
<s5>41</s5>
</fC07>
<fC07 i1="05" i2="X" l="SPA"><s0>Sistema nervioso patología</s0>
<s5>41</s5>
</fC07>
<fN21><s1>241</s1>
</fN21>
</pA>
</standard>
</inist>
</record>
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