Recent changes in shelf hydrography in the Siberian Arctic: Potential for subsea permafrost instability
Identifieur interne : 002677 ( Istex/Corpus ); précédent : 002676; suivant : 002678Recent changes in shelf hydrography in the Siberian Arctic: Potential for subsea permafrost instability
Auteurs : Igor A. Dmitrenko ; Sergey A. Kirillov ; L. Bruno Tremblay ; Heidemarie Kassens ; Oleg A. Anisimov ; Sergey A. Lavrov ; Sergey O. Razumov ; Mikhail N. GrigorievSource :
- Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans [ 0148-0227 ] ; 2011-10.
Abstract
Summer hydrographic data (1920–2009) show a dramatic warming of the bottom water layer over the eastern Siberian shelf coastal zone (<10 m depth), since the mid‐1980s, by 2.1°C. We attribute this warming to changes in the Arctic atmosphere. The enhanced summer cyclonicity results in warmer air temperatures and a reduction in ice extent, mainly through thermodynamic melting. This leads to a lengthening of the summer open‐water season and to more solar heating of the water column. The permafrost modeling indicates, however, that a significant change in the permafrost depth lags behind the imposed changes in surface temperature, and after 25 years of summer seafloor warming (as observed from 1985 to 2009), the upper boundary of permafrost deepens only by ∼1 m. Thus, the observed increase in temperature does not lead to a destabilization of methane‐bearing subsea permafrost or to an increase in methane emission. The CH4 supersaturation, recently reported from the eastern Siberian shelf, is believed to be the result of the degradation of subsea permafrost that is due to the long‐lasting warming initiated by permafrost submergence about 8000 years ago rather than from those triggered by recent Arctic climate changes. A significant degradation of subsea permafrost is expected to be detectable at the beginning of the next millennium. Until that time, the simulated permafrost table shows a deepening down to ∼70 m below the seafloor that is considered to be important for the stability of the subsea permafrost and the permafrost‐related gas hydrate stability zone.
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DOI: 10.1029/2011JC007218
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We attribute this warming to changes in the Arctic atmosphere. The enhanced summer cyclonicity results in warmer air temperatures and a reduction in ice extent, mainly through thermodynamic melting. This leads to a lengthening of the summer open‐water season and to more solar heating of the water column. The permafrost modeling indicates, however, that a significant change in the permafrost depth lags behind the imposed changes in surface temperature, and after 25 years of summer seafloor warming (as observed from 1985 to 2009), the upper boundary of permafrost deepens only by ∼1 m. Thus, the observed increase in temperature does not lead to a destabilization of methane‐bearing subsea permafrost or to an increase in methane emission. The CH4 supersaturation, recently reported from the eastern Siberian shelf, is believed to be the result of the degradation of subsea permafrost that is due to the long‐lasting warming initiated by permafrost submergence about 8000 years ago rather than from those triggered by recent Arctic climate changes. A significant degradation of subsea permafrost is expected to be detectable at the beginning of the next millennium. Until that time, the simulated permafrost table shows a deepening down to ∼70 m below the seafloor that is considered to be important for the stability of the subsea permafrost and the permafrost‐related gas hydrate stability zone.</div></front></TEI><istex><corpusName>wiley</corpusName><author><json:item><name>Igor A. Dmitrenko</name><affiliations><json:string>Leibniz Institute of Marine Sciences, University of Kiel, Kiel, Germany</json:string><json:string>E-mail: idmitrenko@ifm-geomar.de</json:string></affiliations></json:item><json:item><name>Sergey A. 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Bruno</forename><surname>Tremblay</surname></persName><affiliation>Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, McGill University, Montreal, Quebec, Canada</affiliation></author><author xml:id="author-4"><persName><forename type="first">Heidemarie</forename><surname>Kassens</surname></persName><affiliation>Leibniz Institute of Marine Sciences, University of Kiel, Kiel, Germany</affiliation></author><author xml:id="author-5"><persName><forename type="first">Oleg A.</forename><surname>Anisimov</surname></persName><affiliation>Department of Climate Change Research, State Hydrological Institute, St. Petersburg, Russia</affiliation></author><author xml:id="author-6"><persName><forename type="first">Sergey A.</forename><surname>Lavrov</surname></persName><affiliation>Department of Climate Change Research, State Hydrological Institute, St. Petersburg, Russia</affiliation></author><author xml:id="author-7"><persName><forename type="first">Sergey O.</forename><surname>Razumov</surname></persName><affiliation>Melnikov Permafrost Institute, Siberian Branch of the Russian Academy of Science, Yakutsk, Russia</affiliation></author><author xml:id="author-8"><persName><forename type="first">Mikhail N.</forename><surname>Grigoriev</surname></persName><affiliation>Melnikov Permafrost Institute, Siberian Branch of the Russian Academy of Science, Yakutsk, Russia</affiliation></author></analytic><monogr><title level="j">Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans</title><title level="j" type="abbrev">J. 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The enhanced summer cyclonicity results in warmer air temperatures and a reduction in ice extent, mainly through thermodynamic melting. This leads to a lengthening of the summer open‐water season and to more solar heating of the water column. The permafrost modeling indicates, however, that a significant change in the permafrost depth lags behind the imposed changes in surface temperature, and after 25 years of summer seafloor warming (as observed from 1985 to 2009), the upper boundary of permafrost deepens only by ∼1 m. Thus, the observed increase in temperature does not lead to a destabilization of methane‐bearing subsea permafrost or to an increase in methane emission. The CH4 supersaturation, recently reported from the eastern Siberian shelf, is believed to be the result of the degradation of subsea permafrost that is due to the long‐lasting warming initiated by permafrost submergence about 8000 years ago rather than from those triggered by recent Arctic climate changes. A significant degradation of subsea permafrost is expected to be detectable at the beginning of the next millennium. Until that time, the simulated permafrost table shows a deepening down to ∼70 m below the seafloor that is considered to be important for the stability of the subsea permafrost and the permafrost‐related gas hydrate stability zone.</p></abstract><abstract style="short"><p>Our data provide evidence of drastic bottom layer heating over the coastal zone We attribute this warming to changes in the Arctic atmosphere Recent climate change cannot produce an immediate response in subsea permafrost</p></abstract><textClass><keywords scheme="keyword"><list><head>keywords</head><item><term>Siberian shelf</term></item><item><term>air temperature</term></item><item><term>bottom water layer</term></item><item><term>subsea permafrost</term></item><item><term>water temperature</term></item></list></keywords></textClass><textClass><keywords scheme="Journal Subject"><list><head>index-terms</head><item><term>ATMOSPHERIC COMPOSITION AND STRUCTURE</term></item><item><term>Air/sea constituent fluxes</term></item><item><term>BIOGEOSCIENCES</term></item><item><term>Permafrost, cryosphere, and high‐latitude processes</term></item><item><term>CRYOSPHERE</term></item><item><term>Permafrost</term></item><item><term>Glaciology</term></item><item><term>GLOBAL CHANGE</term></item><item><term>Cryospheric change</term></item><item><term>Climate variability</term></item><item><term>Oceans</term></item><item><term>MARINE GEOLOGY AND GEOPHYSICS</term></item><item><term>Continental shelf and slope processes</term></item><item><term>ATMOSPHERIC PROCESSES</term></item><item><term>Ocean/atmosphere interactions</term></item><item><term>Climate change and variability</term></item><item><term>Climatology</term></item><item><term>OCEANOGRAPHY: GENERAL</term></item><item><term>Climate and interannual variability</term></item><item><term>Continental shelf and slope processes</term></item><item><term>NATURAL HAZARDS</term></item><item><term>Other</term></item><item><term>Atmospheric</term></item><item><term>OCEANOGRAPHY: PHYSICAL</term></item><item><term>Air/sea interactions</term></item><item><term>Decadal ocean variability</term></item></list></keywords></textClass></profileDesc><revisionDesc><change when="2011-04-18">Received</change><change when="2011-07-28">Registration</change><change when="2011-10">Published</change></revisionDesc></teiHeader></istex:fulltextTEI><json:item><extension>txt</extension><original>false</original><mimetype>text/plain</mimetype><uri>https://api-v5.istex.fr/document/6CCE6A8D59F66CA128E4A47D3AED97DF222CA716/fulltext/txt</uri></json:item></fulltext><metadata><istex:metadataXml wicri:clean="Wiley, elements deleted: body"><istex:xmlDeclaration>version="1.0" encoding="UTF-8" standalone="yes"</istex:xmlDeclaration><istex:document><component type="serialArticle" version="2.0" xml:lang="en" xml:id="jgrc12177"><header><publicationMeta level="product"><doi>10.1002/(ISSN)2156-2202c</doi><issn type="print">0148-0227</issn><issn type="electronic">2156-2202</issn><idGroup><id type="product" value="JGRC"></id><id type="coden" value="JGREA2"></id></idGroup><titleGroup><title type="main" xml:lang="en" sort="JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH: OCEANS">Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans</title><title type="short">J. Geophys. Res.</title></titleGroup></publicationMeta><publicationMeta level="part" position="100"><doi>10.1002/jgrc.v116.C10</doi><idGroup><id type="focusSection" value="3"></id></idGroup><titleGroup><title type="focusSection" xml:lang="en">Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans</title></titleGroup><numberingGroup><numbering type="journalVolume" number="116">116</numbering><numbering type="journalIssue">C10</numbering></numberingGroup><coverDate startDate="2011-10">October 2011</coverDate></publicationMeta><publicationMeta level="unit" position="120" type="article" status="forIssue"><doi>10.1029/2011JC007218</doi><idGroup><id type="editorialOffice" value="2011JC007218"></id><id type="society" value="C10027"></id><id type="unit" value="JGRC12177"></id></idGroup><countGroup><count type="pageTotal" number="10"></count></countGroup><copyright ownership="thirdParty">Copyright 2011 by the American Geophysical Union.</copyright><eventGroup><event type="manuscriptReceived" date="2011-04-18"></event><event type="manuscriptRevised" date="2011-07-01"></event><event type="manuscriptAccepted" date="2011-07-28"></event><event type="firstOnline" date="2011-10-19"></event><event type="publishedOnlineFinalForm" date="2011-10-19"></event><event type="xmlConverted" agent="SPi Global Converter:AGUv3.44_TO_WileyML3Gv1.0.3 version:1.1; WileyML 3G Packaging Tool v1.0; AGU2WileyML3G Final Clean Up v1.0" date="2012-12-14"></event><event type="xmlConverted" agent="Converter:WILEY_ML3G_TO_WILEY_ML3GV2 version:4.0.1" date="2014-03-20"></event><event type="xmlConverted" agent="Converter:WML3G_To_WML3G version:4.1.7 mode:FullText,remove_FC" date="2014-10-30"></event></eventGroup><numberingGroup><numbering type="pageFirst">n/a</numbering><numbering type="pageLast">n/a</numbering></numberingGroup><subjectInfo><subject role="crossTerm" href="http://psi.agu.org/taxonomy5/0300">ATMOSPHERIC COMPOSITION AND STRUCTURE</subject><subjectInfo><subject role="crossTerm" href="http://psi.agu.org/taxonomy5/0312">Air/sea constituent fluxes</subject></subjectInfo><subject role="crossTerm" href="http://psi.agu.org/taxonomy5/0400">BIOGEOSCIENCES</subject><subjectInfo><subject role="crossTerm" href="http://psi.agu.org/taxonomy5/0475">Permafrost, cryosphere, and high‐latitude processes</subject></subjectInfo><subject href="http://psi.agu.org/taxonomy5/0700">CRYOSPHERE</subject><subjectInfo><subject href="http://psi.agu.org/taxonomy5/0702">Permafrost</subject><subject role="crossTerm" href="http://psi.agu.org/taxonomy5/0776">Glaciology</subject></subjectInfo><subject href="http://psi.agu.org/taxonomy5/1600">GLOBAL CHANGE</subject><subjectInfo><subject href="http://psi.agu.org/taxonomy5/1621">Cryospheric change</subject><subject role="crossTerm" href="http://psi.agu.org/taxonomy5/1616">Climate variability</subject><subject role="crossTerm" href="http://psi.agu.org/taxonomy5/1635">Oceans</subject></subjectInfo><subject role="crossTerm" href="http://psi.agu.org/taxonomy5/3000">MARINE GEOLOGY AND GEOPHYSICS</subject><subjectInfo><subject role="crossTerm" href="http://psi.agu.org/taxonomy5/3002">Continental shelf and slope processes</subject></subjectInfo><subject href="http://psi.agu.org/taxonomy5/3300">ATMOSPHERIC PROCESSES</subject><subjectInfo><subject href="http://psi.agu.org/taxonomy5/3339">Ocean/atmosphere interactions</subject><subject role="crossTerm" href="http://psi.agu.org/taxonomy5/3305">Climate change and variability</subject><subject role="crossTerm" href="http://psi.agu.org/taxonomy5/3309">Climatology</subject></subjectInfo><subject href="http://psi.agu.org/taxonomy5/4200">OCEANOGRAPHY: GENERAL</subject><subjectInfo><subject href="http://psi.agu.org/taxonomy5/4215">Climate and interannual variability</subject><subject href="http://psi.agu.org/taxonomy5/4219">Continental shelf and slope processes</subject></subjectInfo><subject role="crossTerm" href="http://psi.agu.org/taxonomy5/4300">NATURAL HAZARDS</subject><subjectInfo><subject role="crossTerm" href="http://psi.agu.org/taxonomy5/4308">Other</subject><subject role="crossTerm" href="http://psi.agu.org/taxonomy5/4301">Atmospheric</subject></subjectInfo><subject role="crossTerm" href="http://psi.agu.org/taxonomy5/4500">OCEANOGRAPHY: PHYSICAL</subject><subjectInfo><subject role="crossTerm" href="http://psi.agu.org/taxonomy5/4504">Air/sea interactions</subject><subject role="crossTerm" href="http://psi.agu.org/taxonomy5/4513">Decadal ocean variability</subject></subjectInfo></subjectInfo><selfCitationGroup><citation xml:id="jgrc12177-cit-0000" type="self"><author><familyName>Dmitrenko</familyName>, <givenNames>I. A.</givenNames></author>, <author><givenNames>S. A.</givenNames> <familyName>Kirillov</familyName></author>, <author><givenNames>L. B.</givenNames> <familyName>Tremblay</familyName></author>, <author><givenNames>H.</givenNames> <familyName>Kassens</familyName></author>, <author><givenNames>O. A.</givenNames> <familyName>Anisimov</familyName></author>, <author><givenNames>S. A.</givenNames> <familyName>Lavrov</familyName></author>, <author><givenNames>S. O.</givenNames> <familyName>Razumov</familyName></author>, and <author><givenNames>M. N.</givenNames> <familyName>Grigoriev</familyName></author> (<pubYear year="2011">2011</pubYear>), <articleTitle>Recent changes in shelf hydrography in the Siberian Arctic: Potential for subsea permafrost instability</articleTitle>, <journalTitle>J. Geophys. Res.</journalTitle>, <vol>116</vol>, C10027, doi:<accessionId ref="info:doi/10.1029/2011JC007218">10.1029/2011JC007218</accessionId>.</citation></selfCitationGroup><linkGroup><link type="toTypesetVersion" href="file:JGRC.JGRC12177.pdf"></link></linkGroup></publicationMeta><contentMeta><countGroup><count type="wordTotal" number="8100"></count><count type="figureTotal" number="6"></count><count type="tableTotal" number="2"></count></countGroup><titleGroup><title type="main">Recent changes in shelf hydrography in the Siberian Arctic: Potential for subsea permafrost instability</title><title type="short">SUBSEA PERMAFROST INSTABILITY</title><title type="shortAuthors">Dmitrenko <i>et al</i>.</title></titleGroup><creators><creator creatorRole="author" xml:id="jgrc12177-cr-0001" affiliationRef="#jgrc12177-aff-0001"><personName><givenNames>Igor A.</givenNames> <familyName>Dmitrenko</familyName></personName><contactDetails><email normalForm="idmitrenko@ifm-geomar.de">idmitrenko@ifm-geomar.de</email></contactDetails></creator><creator creatorRole="author" xml:id="jgrc12177-cr-0002" affiliationRef="#jgrc12177-aff-0002"><personName><givenNames>Sergey A.</givenNames> <familyName>Kirillov</familyName></personName></creator><creator creatorRole="author" xml:id="jgrc12177-cr-0003" affiliationRef="#jgrc12177-aff-0003"><personName><givenNames>L. Bruno</givenNames> <familyName>Tremblay</familyName></personName></creator><creator creatorRole="author" xml:id="jgrc12177-cr-0004" affiliationRef="#jgrc12177-aff-0001"><personName><givenNames>Heidemarie</givenNames> <familyName>Kassens</familyName></personName></creator><creator creatorRole="author" xml:id="jgrc12177-cr-0005" affiliationRef="#jgrc12177-aff-0004"><personName><givenNames>Oleg A.</givenNames> <familyName>Anisimov</familyName></personName></creator><creator creatorRole="author" xml:id="jgrc12177-cr-0006" affiliationRef="#jgrc12177-aff-0004"><personName><givenNames>Sergey A.</givenNames> <familyName>Lavrov</familyName></personName></creator><creator creatorRole="author" xml:id="jgrc12177-cr-0007" affiliationRef="#jgrc12177-aff-0005"><personName><givenNames>Sergey O.</givenNames> <familyName>Razumov</familyName></personName></creator><creator creatorRole="author" xml:id="jgrc12177-cr-0008" affiliationRef="#jgrc12177-aff-0005"><personName><givenNames>Mikhail N.</givenNames> <familyName>Grigoriev</familyName></personName></creator></creators><affiliationGroup><affiliation countryCode="DE" type="organization" xml:id="jgrc12177-aff-0001"><orgDiv>Leibniz Institute of Marine Sciences</orgDiv><orgName>University of Kiel</orgName><address><city>Kiel</city><country>Germany</country></address></affiliation><affiliation type="organization" xml:id="jgrc12177-aff-0002"><orgName>Arctic and Antarctic Research Institute</orgName><address><city>St. Petersburg</city><country>Russia</country></address></affiliation><affiliation countryCode="CA" type="organization" xml:id="jgrc12177-aff-0003"><orgDiv>Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences</orgDiv><orgName>McGill University</orgName><address><city>Montreal, Quebec</city><country>Canada</country></address></affiliation><affiliation type="organization" xml:id="jgrc12177-aff-0004"><orgDiv>Department of Climate Change Research</orgDiv><orgName>State Hydrological Institute</orgName><address><city>St. Petersburg</city><country>Russia</country></address></affiliation><affiliation type="organization" xml:id="jgrc12177-aff-0005"><orgDiv>Melnikov Permafrost Institute</orgDiv><orgName>Siberian Branch of the Russian Academy of Science</orgName><address><city>Yakutsk</city><country>Russia</country></address></affiliation></affiliationGroup><keywordGroup type="author"><keyword xml:id="jgrc12177-kwd-0001">Siberian shelf</keyword><keyword xml:id="jgrc12177-kwd-0002">air temperature</keyword><keyword xml:id="jgrc12177-kwd-0003">bottom water layer</keyword><keyword xml:id="jgrc12177-kwd-0004">subsea permafrost</keyword><keyword xml:id="jgrc12177-kwd-0005">water temperature</keyword></keywordGroup><supportingInformation><supportingInfoItem><mediaResource alt="supplementary data" mimeType="text/plain" href="urn-x:wiley:01480227:media:jgrc12177:jgrc12177-sup-0001-t01"></mediaResource><caption>Tab‐delimited Table 1.</caption></supportingInfoItem><supportingInfoItem><mediaResource alt="supplementary data" mimeType="text/plain" href="urn-x:wiley:01480227:media:jgrc12177:jgrc12177-sup-0002-t02"></mediaResource><caption>Tab‐delimited Table 2.</caption></supportingInfoItem></supportingInformation><abstractGroup><abstract type="main"><p xml:id="jgrc12177-para-0001" label="1">Summer hydrographic data (1920–2009) show a dramatic warming of the bottom water layer over the eastern Siberian shelf coastal zone (<10 m depth), since the mid‐1980s, by 2.1°C. We attribute this warming to changes in the Arctic atmosphere. The enhanced summer cyclonicity results in warmer air temperatures and a reduction in ice extent, mainly through thermodynamic melting. This leads to a lengthening of the summer open‐water season and to more solar heating of the water column. The permafrost modeling indicates, however, that a significant change in the permafrost depth lags behind the imposed changes in surface temperature, and after 25 years of summer seafloor warming (as observed from 1985 to 2009), the upper boundary of permafrost deepens only by ∼1 m. Thus, the observed increase in temperature does not lead to a destabilization of methane‐bearing subsea permafrost or to an increase in methane emission. The CH<sub>4</sub> supersaturation, recently reported from the eastern Siberian shelf, is believed to be the result of the degradation of subsea permafrost that is due to the long‐lasting warming initiated by permafrost submergence about 8000 years ago rather than from those triggered by recent Arctic climate changes. A significant degradation of subsea permafrost is expected to be detectable at the beginning of the next millennium. Until that time, the simulated permafrost table shows a deepening down to ∼70 m below the seafloor that is considered to be important for the stability of the subsea permafrost and the permafrost‐related gas hydrate stability zone.</p></abstract><abstract type="short"><title type="main">Key Points</title><p xml:id="jgrc12177-para-0002"><list style="bulleted"><listItem>Our data provide evidence of drastic bottom layer heating over the coastal zone</listItem><listItem>We attribute this warming to changes in the Arctic atmosphere</listItem><listItem>Recent climate change cannot produce an immediate response in subsea permafrost</listItem></list></p></abstract></abstractGroup></contentMeta></header></component></istex:document></istex:metadataXml><mods version="3.6"><titleInfo lang="en"><title>Recent changes in shelf hydrography in the Siberian Arctic: Potential for subsea permafrost instability</title></titleInfo><titleInfo type="abbreviated" lang="en"><title>SUBSEA PERMAFROST INSTABILITY</title></titleInfo><titleInfo type="alternative" contentType="CDATA" lang="en"><title>Recent changes in shelf hydrography in the Siberian Arctic: Potential for subsea permafrost instability</title></titleInfo><name type="personal"><namePart type="given">Igor A.</namePart><namePart type="family">Dmitrenko</namePart><affiliation>Leibniz Institute of Marine Sciences, University of Kiel, Kiel, Germany</affiliation><affiliation>E-mail: idmitrenko@ifm-geomar.de</affiliation><role><roleTerm type="text">author</roleTerm></role></name><name type="personal"><namePart type="given">Sergey A.</namePart><namePart type="family">Kirillov</namePart><affiliation>Arctic and Antarctic Research Institute, St. Petersburg, Russia</affiliation><role><roleTerm type="text">author</roleTerm></role></name><name type="personal"><namePart type="given">L. Bruno</namePart><namePart type="family">Tremblay</namePart><affiliation>Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, McGill University, Montreal, Quebec, Canada</affiliation><role><roleTerm type="text">author</roleTerm></role></name><name type="personal"><namePart type="given">Heidemarie</namePart><namePart type="family">Kassens</namePart><affiliation>Leibniz Institute of Marine Sciences, University of Kiel, Kiel, Germany</affiliation><role><roleTerm type="text">author</roleTerm></role></name><name type="personal"><namePart type="given">Oleg A.</namePart><namePart type="family">Anisimov</namePart><affiliation>Department of Climate Change Research, State Hydrological Institute, St. Petersburg, Russia</affiliation><role><roleTerm type="text">author</roleTerm></role></name><name type="personal"><namePart type="given">Sergey A.</namePart><namePart type="family">Lavrov</namePart><affiliation>Department of Climate Change Research, State Hydrological Institute, St. Petersburg, Russia</affiliation><role><roleTerm type="text">author</roleTerm></role></name><name type="personal"><namePart type="given">Sergey O.</namePart><namePart type="family">Razumov</namePart><affiliation>Melnikov Permafrost Institute, Siberian Branch of the Russian Academy of Science, Yakutsk, Russia</affiliation><role><roleTerm type="text">author</roleTerm></role></name><name type="personal"><namePart type="given">Mikhail N.</namePart><namePart type="family">Grigoriev</namePart><affiliation>Melnikov Permafrost Institute, Siberian Branch of the Russian Academy of Science, Yakutsk, Russia</affiliation><role><roleTerm type="text">author</roleTerm></role></name><typeOfResource>text</typeOfResource><genre type="article" displayLabel="article"></genre><originInfo><publisher>Blackwell Publishing Ltd</publisher><dateIssued encoding="w3cdtf">2011-10</dateIssued><dateCaptured encoding="w3cdtf">2011-04-18</dateCaptured><dateValid encoding="w3cdtf">2011-07-28</dateValid><edition>Dmitrenko, I. A., S. A. Kirillov, L. B. Tremblay, H. Kassens, O. A. Anisimov, S. A. Lavrov, S. O. Razumov, and M. N. Grigoriev (2011), Recent changes in shelf hydrography in the Siberian Arctic: Potential for subsea permafrost instability, J. Geophys. Res., 116, C10027, doi:10.1029/2011JC007218.</edition><copyrightDate encoding="w3cdtf">2011</copyrightDate></originInfo><language><languageTerm type="code" authority="rfc3066">en</languageTerm><languageTerm type="code" authority="iso639-2b">eng</languageTerm></language><physicalDescription><internetMediaType>text/html</internetMediaType><extent unit="figures">6</extent><extent unit="tables">2</extent><extent unit="words">8100</extent></physicalDescription><abstract>Summer hydrographic data (1920–2009) show a dramatic warming of the bottom water layer over the eastern Siberian shelf coastal zone (<10 m depth), since the mid‐1980s, by 2.1°C. We attribute this warming to changes in the Arctic atmosphere. The enhanced summer cyclonicity results in warmer air temperatures and a reduction in ice extent, mainly through thermodynamic melting. This leads to a lengthening of the summer open‐water season and to more solar heating of the water column. The permafrost modeling indicates, however, that a significant change in the permafrost depth lags behind the imposed changes in surface temperature, and after 25 years of summer seafloor warming (as observed from 1985 to 2009), the upper boundary of permafrost deepens only by ∼1 m. Thus, the observed increase in temperature does not lead to a destabilization of methane‐bearing subsea permafrost or to an increase in methane emission. The CH4 supersaturation, recently reported from the eastern Siberian shelf, is believed to be the result of the degradation of subsea permafrost that is due to the long‐lasting warming initiated by permafrost submergence about 8000 years ago rather than from those triggered by recent Arctic climate changes. A significant degradation of subsea permafrost is expected to be detectable at the beginning of the next millennium. Until that time, the simulated permafrost table shows a deepening down to ∼70 m below the seafloor that is considered to be important for the stability of the subsea permafrost and the permafrost‐related gas hydrate stability zone.</abstract><abstract type="short">Our data provide evidence of drastic bottom layer heating over the coastal zone We attribute this warming to changes in the Arctic atmosphere Recent climate change cannot produce an immediate response in subsea permafrost</abstract><note type="additional physical form">Tab‐delimited Table 1.Tab‐delimited Table 2.</note><subject><genre>keywords</genre><topic>Siberian shelf</topic><topic>air temperature</topic><topic>bottom water layer</topic><topic>subsea permafrost</topic><topic>water temperature</topic></subject><relatedItem type="host"><titleInfo><title>Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans</title></titleInfo><titleInfo type="abbreviated"><title>J. Geophys. Res.</title></titleInfo><genre type="journal">journal</genre><subject><genre>index-terms</genre><topic authorityURI="http://psi.agu.org/taxonomy5/0300">ATMOSPHERIC COMPOSITION AND STRUCTURE</topic><topic authorityURI="http://psi.agu.org/taxonomy5/0312">Air/sea constituent fluxes</topic><topic authorityURI="http://psi.agu.org/taxonomy5/0400">BIOGEOSCIENCES</topic><topic authorityURI="http://psi.agu.org/taxonomy5/0475">Permafrost, cryosphere, and high‐latitude processes</topic><topic authorityURI="http://psi.agu.org/taxonomy5/0700">CRYOSPHERE</topic><topic authorityURI="http://psi.agu.org/taxonomy5/0702">Permafrost</topic><topic authorityURI="http://psi.agu.org/taxonomy5/0776">Glaciology</topic><topic authorityURI="http://psi.agu.org/taxonomy5/1600">GLOBAL CHANGE</topic><topic authorityURI="http://psi.agu.org/taxonomy5/1621">Cryospheric change</topic><topic authorityURI="http://psi.agu.org/taxonomy5/1616">Climate variability</topic><topic authorityURI="http://psi.agu.org/taxonomy5/1635">Oceans</topic><topic authorityURI="http://psi.agu.org/taxonomy5/3000">MARINE GEOLOGY AND GEOPHYSICS</topic><topic authorityURI="http://psi.agu.org/taxonomy5/3002">Continental shelf and slope processes</topic><topic authorityURI="http://psi.agu.org/taxonomy5/3300">ATMOSPHERIC PROCESSES</topic><topic authorityURI="http://psi.agu.org/taxonomy5/3339">Ocean/atmosphere interactions</topic><topic authorityURI="http://psi.agu.org/taxonomy5/3305">Climate change and variability</topic><topic authorityURI="http://psi.agu.org/taxonomy5/3309">Climatology</topic><topic authorityURI="http://psi.agu.org/taxonomy5/4200">OCEANOGRAPHY: GENERAL</topic><topic authorityURI="http://psi.agu.org/taxonomy5/4215">Climate and interannual variability</topic><topic authorityURI="http://psi.agu.org/taxonomy5/4219">Continental shelf and slope processes</topic><topic authorityURI="http://psi.agu.org/taxonomy5/4300">NATURAL HAZARDS</topic><topic authorityURI="http://psi.agu.org/taxonomy5/4308">Other</topic><topic authorityURI="http://psi.agu.org/taxonomy5/4301">Atmospheric</topic><topic authorityURI="http://psi.agu.org/taxonomy5/4500">OCEANOGRAPHY: PHYSICAL</topic><topic authorityURI="http://psi.agu.org/taxonomy5/4504">Air/sea interactions</topic><topic authorityURI="http://psi.agu.org/taxonomy5/4513">Decadal ocean variability</topic></subject><identifier type="ISSN">0148-0227</identifier><identifier type="eISSN">2156-2202</identifier><identifier type="DOI">10.1002/(ISSN)2156-2202c</identifier><identifier type="CODEN">JGREA2</identifier><identifier type="PublisherID">JGRC</identifier><part><date>2011</date><detail type="volume"><caption>vol.</caption><number>116</number></detail><detail type="issue"><caption>no.</caption><number>C10</number></detail><extent unit="pages"><start>n/a</start><end>n/a</end><total>10</total></extent></part></relatedItem><identifier type="istex">6CCE6A8D59F66CA128E4A47D3AED97DF222CA716</identifier><identifier type="DOI">10.1029/2011JC007218</identifier><identifier type="ArticleID">2011JC007218</identifier><accessCondition type="use and reproduction" contentType="copyright">Copyright 2011 by the American Geophysical Union.</accessCondition><recordInfo><recordContentSource>WILEY</recordContentSource></recordInfo></mods></metadata><serie></serie></istex></record>Pour manipuler ce document sous Unix (Dilib)
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