Predicting the Impact of a Partially Effective HIV Vaccine and Subsequent Risk Behavior Change on the Heterosexual HIV Epidemic in Low- and Middle-Income Countries A South African Example
Identifieur interne : 001896 ( Pmc/Corpus ); précédent : 001895; suivant : 001897Predicting the Impact of a Partially Effective HIV Vaccine and Subsequent Risk Behavior Change on the Heterosexual HIV Epidemic in Low- and Middle-Income Countries A South African Example
Auteurs : Kyeen M. Andersson ; Douglas K. Owens ; Eftyhia Vardas ; Glenda E. Gray ; James A. Mcintyre ; A. David PaltielSource :
- Journal of acquired immune deficiency syndromes (1999) [ 1525-4135 ] ; 2007.
Abstract
We developed a mathematical model to simulate the impact of various partially effective preventive HIV vaccination scenarios in a population at high risk for heterosexually transmitted HIV. We considered an adult population defined by gender (male/female), disease stage (HIV-negative, HIV-positive, AIDS, and death), and vaccination status (unvaccinated/vaccinated) in Soweto, South Africa. Input data included initial HIV prevalence of 20% (women) and 12% (men), vaccination coverage of 75%, and exclusive male negotiation of condom use. We explored how changes in vaccine efficacy and post-vaccination condom use would affect HIV prevalence and total HIV infections prevented over a 10-year period. In the base-case scenario, a 40% effective HIV vaccine would avert 61,000 infections and reduce future HIV prevalence from 20% to 13%. A 25% increase (or decrease) in condom use among vaccinated individuals would instead avert 75,000 (or only 46,000) infections and reduce the HIV prevalence to 12% (or only 15%). Furthermore, certain combinations of increased risk behavior and vaccines with <43% efficacy could worsen the epidemic. Even modestly effective HIV vaccines can confer enormous benefits in terms of HIV infections averted and decreased HIV prevalence. However, programs to reduce risk behavior may be important components of successful vaccination campaigns.
Url:
DOI: 10.1097/QAI.0b013e31812506fd
PubMed: 17589368
PubMed Central: 3570247
Links to Exploration step
PMC:3570247Le document en format XML
<record><TEI><teiHeader><fileDesc><titleStmt><title xml:lang="en">Predicting the Impact of a Partially Effective HIV Vaccine and Subsequent Risk Behavior Change on the Heterosexual HIV Epidemic in Low- and Middle-Income Countries <italic>A South African Example</italic></title><author><name sortKey="Andersson, Kyeen M" sort="Andersson, Kyeen M" uniqKey="Andersson K" first="Kyeen M." last="Andersson">Kyeen M. Andersson</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="A1">Department of Epidemiology and Public Health, Yale University School of Medicine, New Haven, CT</nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Owens, Douglas K" sort="Owens, Douglas K" uniqKey="Owens D" first="Douglas K." last="Owens">Douglas K. Owens</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="A2">Veterans Affairs Palo Alto Health Care System, Palo Alto, CA</nlm:aff></affiliation><affiliation><nlm:aff id="A3">Center for Primary Care and Outcomes Research/Center for Health Policy, Stanford University, Stanford, CA</nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Vardas, Eftyhia" sort="Vardas, Eftyhia" uniqKey="Vardas E" first="Eftyhia" last="Vardas">Eftyhia Vardas</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="A4">Perinatal HIV Research Unit, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa</nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Gray, Glenda E" sort="Gray, Glenda E" uniqKey="Gray G" first="Glenda E." last="Gray">Glenda E. Gray</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="A4">Perinatal HIV Research Unit, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa</nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Mcintyre, James A" sort="Mcintyre, James A" uniqKey="Mcintyre J" first="James A." last="Mcintyre">James A. Mcintyre</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="A4">Perinatal HIV Research Unit, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa</nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Paltiel, A David" sort="Paltiel, A David" uniqKey="Paltiel A" first="A. David" last="Paltiel">A. David Paltiel</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="A1">Department of Epidemiology and Public Health, Yale University School of Medicine, New Haven, CT</nlm:aff></affiliation></author></titleStmt><publicationStmt><idno type="wicri:source">PMC</idno><idno type="pmid">17589368</idno><idno type="pmc">3570247</idno><idno type="url">http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3570247</idno><idno type="RBID">PMC:3570247</idno><idno type="doi">10.1097/QAI.0b013e31812506fd</idno><date when="2007">2007</date><idno type="wicri:Area/Pmc/Corpus">001896</idno><idno type="wicri:explorRef" wicri:stream="Pmc" wicri:step="Corpus" wicri:corpus="PMC">001896</idno></publicationStmt><sourceDesc><biblStruct><analytic><title xml:lang="en" level="a" type="main">Predicting the Impact of a Partially Effective HIV Vaccine and Subsequent Risk Behavior Change on the Heterosexual HIV Epidemic in Low- and Middle-Income Countries <italic>A South African Example</italic></title><author><name sortKey="Andersson, Kyeen M" sort="Andersson, Kyeen M" uniqKey="Andersson K" first="Kyeen M." last="Andersson">Kyeen M. Andersson</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="A1">Department of Epidemiology and Public Health, Yale University School of Medicine, New Haven, CT</nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Owens, Douglas K" sort="Owens, Douglas K" uniqKey="Owens D" first="Douglas K." last="Owens">Douglas K. Owens</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="A2">Veterans Affairs Palo Alto Health Care System, Palo Alto, CA</nlm:aff></affiliation><affiliation><nlm:aff id="A3">Center for Primary Care and Outcomes Research/Center for Health Policy, Stanford University, Stanford, CA</nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Vardas, Eftyhia" sort="Vardas, Eftyhia" uniqKey="Vardas E" first="Eftyhia" last="Vardas">Eftyhia Vardas</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="A4">Perinatal HIV Research Unit, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa</nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Gray, Glenda E" sort="Gray, Glenda E" uniqKey="Gray G" first="Glenda E." last="Gray">Glenda E. Gray</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="A4">Perinatal HIV Research Unit, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa</nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Mcintyre, James A" sort="Mcintyre, James A" uniqKey="Mcintyre J" first="James A." last="Mcintyre">James A. Mcintyre</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="A4">Perinatal HIV Research Unit, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa</nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Paltiel, A David" sort="Paltiel, A David" uniqKey="Paltiel A" first="A. David" last="Paltiel">A. David Paltiel</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="A1">Department of Epidemiology and Public Health, Yale University School of Medicine, New Haven, CT</nlm:aff></affiliation></author></analytic><series><title level="j">Journal of acquired immune deficiency syndromes (1999)</title><idno type="ISSN">1525-4135</idno><idno type="eISSN">1944-7884</idno><imprint><date when="2007">2007</date></imprint></series></biblStruct></sourceDesc></fileDesc><profileDesc><textClass></textClass></profileDesc></teiHeader><front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en"><title>Summary</title><p id="P1">We developed a mathematical model to simulate the impact of various partially effective preventive HIV vaccination scenarios in a population at high risk for heterosexually transmitted HIV. We considered an adult population defined by gender (male/female), disease stage (HIV-negative, HIV-positive, AIDS, and death), and vaccination status (unvaccinated/vaccinated) in Soweto, South Africa. Input data included initial HIV prevalence of 20% (women) and 12% (men), vaccination coverage of 75%, and exclusive male negotiation of condom use. We explored how changes in vaccine efficacy and post-vaccination condom use would affect HIV prevalence and total HIV infections prevented over a 10-year period. In the base-case scenario, a 40% effective HIV vaccine would avert 61,000 infections and reduce future HIV prevalence from 20% to 13%. A 25% increase (or decrease) in condom use among vaccinated individuals would instead avert 75,000 (or only 46,000) infections and reduce the HIV prevalence to 12% (or only 15%). Furthermore, certain combinations of increased risk behavior and vaccines with <43% efficacy could worsen the epidemic. Even modestly effective HIV vaccines can confer enormous benefits in terms of HIV infections averted and decreased HIV prevalence. However, programs to reduce risk behavior may be important components of successful vaccination campaigns.</p></div></front></TEI><pmc article-type="research-article"><pmc-comment>The publisher of this article does not allow downloading of the full text in XML form.</pmc-comment>
<pmc-dir>properties manuscript</pmc-dir>
<front><journal-meta><journal-id journal-id-type="nlm-journal-id">100892005</journal-id><journal-id journal-id-type="pubmed-jr-id">21821</journal-id><journal-id journal-id-type="nlm-ta">J Acquir Immune Defic Syndr</journal-id><journal-id journal-id-type="iso-abbrev">J. Acquir. Immune Defic. Syndr.</journal-id><journal-title-group><journal-title>Journal of acquired immune deficiency syndromes (1999)</journal-title></journal-title-group><issn pub-type="ppub">1525-4135</issn><issn pub-type="epub">1944-7884</issn></journal-meta><article-meta><article-id pub-id-type="pmid">17589368</article-id><article-id pub-id-type="pmc">3570247</article-id><article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.1097/QAI.0b013e31812506fd</article-id><article-id pub-id-type="manuscript">NIHMS410099</article-id><article-categories><subj-group subj-group-type="heading"><subject>Article</subject></subj-group></article-categories><title-group><article-title>Predicting the Impact of a Partially Effective HIV Vaccine and Subsequent Risk Behavior Change on the Heterosexual HIV Epidemic in Low- and Middle-Income Countries <italic>A South African Example</italic></article-title></title-group><contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Andersson</surname><given-names>Kyeen M.</given-names></name><degrees>MD, PhD</degrees><xref ref-type="aff" rid="A1">*</xref><xref rid="FN2" ref-type="author-notes">║</xref></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Owens</surname><given-names>Douglas K.</given-names></name><degrees>MD</degrees><xref ref-type="aff" rid="A2">†</xref><xref ref-type="aff" rid="A3">‡</xref></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Vardas</surname><given-names>Eftyhia</given-names></name><degrees>MD</degrees><xref ref-type="aff" rid="A4">§</xref></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Gray</surname><given-names>Glenda E.</given-names></name><degrees>MD</degrees><xref ref-type="aff" rid="A4">§</xref></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>McIntyre</surname><given-names>James A.</given-names></name><degrees>MD</degrees><xref ref-type="aff" rid="A4">§</xref></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Paltiel</surname><given-names>A. David</given-names></name><degrees>PhD</degrees><xref ref-type="aff" rid="A1">*</xref></contrib></contrib-group><aff id="A1"><label>*</label>Department of Epidemiology and Public Health, Yale University School of Medicine, New Haven, CT</aff><aff id="A2"><label>†</label>Veterans Affairs Palo Alto Health Care System, Palo Alto, CA</aff><aff id="A3"><label>‡</label>Center for Primary Care and Outcomes Research/Center for Health Policy, Stanford University, Stanford, CA</aff><aff id="A4"><label>§</label>Perinatal HIV Research Unit, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa</aff><author-notes><corresp id="FN1">Reprints: Kyeen M. Andersson, MD, PhD, Department of Epidemiology and Public Health, Yale University School of Medicine, 60 College Street, New Haven, CT 06510 (<email>kyeen@aya.yale.edu</email>)</corresp><fn id="FN2"><label>║</label><p>Research undertaken as part of graduate studies in the MD/PhD program at Yale University and under the maiden name Kyeen Mesesan.</p></fn></author-notes><pub-date pub-type="nihms-submitted"><day>23</day><month>1</month><year>2013</year></pub-date><pub-date pub-type="ppub"><day>1</day><month>9</month><year>2007</year></pub-date><pub-date pub-type="pmc-release"><day>12</day><month>2</month><year>2013</year></pub-date><volume>46</volume><issue>1</issue><fpage>78</fpage><lpage>90</lpage><permissions><copyright-statement>Copyright © 2007 by Lippincott Williams & Wilkins</copyright-statement><copyright-year>2007</copyright-year></permissions><abstract><title>Summary</title><p id="P1">We developed a mathematical model to simulate the impact of various partially effective preventive HIV vaccination scenarios in a population at high risk for heterosexually transmitted HIV. We considered an adult population defined by gender (male/female), disease stage (HIV-negative, HIV-positive, AIDS, and death), and vaccination status (unvaccinated/vaccinated) in Soweto, South Africa. Input data included initial HIV prevalence of 20% (women) and 12% (men), vaccination coverage of 75%, and exclusive male negotiation of condom use. We explored how changes in vaccine efficacy and post-vaccination condom use would affect HIV prevalence and total HIV infections prevented over a 10-year period. In the base-case scenario, a 40% effective HIV vaccine would avert 61,000 infections and reduce future HIV prevalence from 20% to 13%. A 25% increase (or decrease) in condom use among vaccinated individuals would instead avert 75,000 (or only 46,000) infections and reduce the HIV prevalence to 12% (or only 15%). Furthermore, certain combinations of increased risk behavior and vaccines with <43% efficacy could worsen the epidemic. Even modestly effective HIV vaccines can confer enormous benefits in terms of HIV infections averted and decreased HIV prevalence. However, programs to reduce risk behavior may be important components of successful vaccination campaigns.</p></abstract><kwd-group><kwd>AIDS vaccines</kwd><kwd>mathematical models</kwd><kwd>sexual behavior</kwd><kwd>heterosexual transmission</kwd><kwd>Africa</kwd><kwd>condoms</kwd><kwd>models/projections</kwd></kwd-group><funding-group><award-group><funding-source country="United States">National Institute on Drug Abuse : NIDA</funding-source><award-id>R01 DA015612 || DA</award-id></award-group></funding-group></article-meta></front></pmc></record>Pour manipuler ce document sous Unix (Dilib)
EXPLOR_STEP=$WICRI_ROOT/Wicri/Sante/explor/SidaSubSaharaV1/Data/Pmc/Corpus
HfdSelect -h $EXPLOR_STEP/biblio.hfd -nk 001896 | SxmlIndent | more
Ou
HfdSelect -h $EXPLOR_AREA/Data/Pmc/Corpus/biblio.hfd -nk 001896 | SxmlIndent | more
Pour mettre un lien sur cette page dans le réseau Wicri
{{Explor lien
|wiki= Wicri/Sante
|area= SidaSubSaharaV1
|flux= Pmc
|étape= Corpus
|type= RBID
|clé= PMC:3570247
|texte= Predicting the Impact of a Partially Effective HIV Vaccine and Subsequent Risk Behavior Change on the Heterosexual HIV Epidemic in Low- and Middle-Income Countries A South African Example
}}
Pour générer des pages wiki
HfdIndexSelect -h $EXPLOR_AREA/Data/Pmc/Corpus/RBID.i -Sk "pubmed:17589368" \
| HfdSelect -Kh $EXPLOR_AREA/Data/Pmc/Corpus/biblio.hfd \
| NlmPubMed2Wicri -a SidaSubSaharaV1
| This area was generated with Dilib version V0.6.32. |  |