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<record><TEI><teiHeader><fileDesc><titleStmt><title xml:lang="en">Fertility trends and net reproduction in Agincourt, rural South Africa, 1992-2004<xref ref-type="fn" rid="FN2">1</xref></title><author><name sortKey="Garenne, Michel L" sort="Garenne, Michel L" uniqKey="Garenne M" first="Michel L." last="Garenne">Michel L. Garenne</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="A1">IRD and Institut Pasteur, Paris, France</nlm:aff></affiliation><affiliation><nlm:aff id="A2">MRC/Wits Rural Public Health and Health Transitions Research Unit (Agincourt), School of Public Health, University of the Witwatersrand, South Africa</nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Tollman, Stephen M" sort="Tollman, Stephen M" uniqKey="Tollman S" first="Stephen M." last="Tollman">Stephen M. Tollman</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="A2">MRC/Wits Rural Public Health and Health Transitions Research Unit (Agincourt), School of Public Health, University of the Witwatersrand, South Africa</nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Collinson, Mark A" sort="Collinson, Mark A" uniqKey="Collinson M" first="Mark A." last="Collinson">Mark A. Collinson</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="A2">MRC/Wits Rural Public Health and Health Transitions Research Unit (Agincourt), School of Public Health, University of the Witwatersrand, South Africa</nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Kahn, Kathleen" sort="Kahn, Kathleen" uniqKey="Kahn K" first="Kathleen" last="Kahn">Kathleen Kahn</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="A2">MRC/Wits Rural Public Health and Health Transitions Research Unit (Agincourt), School of Public Health, University of the Witwatersrand, South Africa</nlm:aff></affiliation></author></titleStmt><publicationStmt><idno type="wicri:source">PMC</idno><idno type="pmid">17676506</idno><idno type="pmc">2830107</idno><idno type="url">http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2830107</idno><idno type="RBID">PMC:2830107</idno><idno type="doi">10.1080/14034950701355650</idno><date when="2007">2007</date><idno type="wicri:Area/Pmc/Corpus">001886</idno><idno type="wicri:explorRef" wicri:stream="Pmc" wicri:step="Corpus" wicri:corpus="PMC">001886</idno></publicationStmt><sourceDesc><biblStruct><analytic><title xml:lang="en" level="a" type="main">Fertility trends and net reproduction in Agincourt, rural South Africa, 1992-2004<xref ref-type="fn" rid="FN2">1</xref></title><author><name sortKey="Garenne, Michel L" sort="Garenne, Michel L" uniqKey="Garenne M" first="Michel L." last="Garenne">Michel L. Garenne</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="A1">IRD and Institut Pasteur, Paris, France</nlm:aff></affiliation><affiliation><nlm:aff id="A2">MRC/Wits Rural Public Health and Health Transitions Research Unit (Agincourt), School of Public Health, University of the Witwatersrand, South Africa</nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Tollman, Stephen M" sort="Tollman, Stephen M" uniqKey="Tollman S" first="Stephen M." last="Tollman">Stephen M. Tollman</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="A2">MRC/Wits Rural Public Health and Health Transitions Research Unit (Agincourt), School of Public Health, University of the Witwatersrand, South Africa</nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Collinson, Mark A" sort="Collinson, Mark A" uniqKey="Collinson M" first="Mark A." last="Collinson">Mark A. Collinson</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="A2">MRC/Wits Rural Public Health and Health Transitions Research Unit (Agincourt), School of Public Health, University of the Witwatersrand, South Africa</nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Kahn, Kathleen" sort="Kahn, Kathleen" uniqKey="Kahn K" first="Kathleen" last="Kahn">Kathleen Kahn</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="A2">MRC/Wits Rural Public Health and Health Transitions Research Unit (Agincourt), School of Public Health, University of the Witwatersrand, South Africa</nlm:aff></affiliation></author></analytic><series><title level="j">Scandinavian journal of public health. Supplement</title><idno type="ISSN">1403-4956</idno><imprint><date when="2007">2007</date></imprint></series></biblStruct></sourceDesc></fileDesc><profileDesc><textClass></textClass></profileDesc></teiHeader><front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en"><sec id="S1"><title>Aims:</title><p id="P1">To analyse trends in fertility rates and net reproduction rates in Agincourt, a rural area of South Africa located in the former homeland of Gazankulu near the Mozambican border. Trends are analysed in the context of widely available modern contraceptive methods and increasing HIV/AIDS.</p></sec><sec id="S2"><title>Methods:</title><p id="P2">A health and demographic surveillance system has been in place since 1992, covering a population of approximately 70,000 persons, with an annual census update and comprehensive recording of births and deaths. It was complemented by a retrospective study of fertility at baseline. Retrospective and prospective data were used to calculate trends in fertility, survival, and net reproduction. When possible, they were compared with data from other censuses and surveys in the same ethnic group.</p></sec><sec id="S3"><title>Results:</title><p id="P3">The fertility transition has almost ended over a course of 25 years in Agincourt. The total fertility rate (TFR) averaged 6.0 in 1979 and 2.3 in 2004. Fertility declined in proportionate fashion in all age groups including adolescents in the recent period. The net reproduction rate (NRR) declined from 1.8 to 1.0 during the prospective period (1992–2004). At current rates of change in fertility and mortality, the NRR can be expected to reach 0.63 by the year 2010.</p></sec><sec id="S4"><title>Conclusions:</title><p id="P4">The situation of a below-replacement fertility level is new for rural Africa, and is likely to have many demographic, economic and social implications. The population could decline in the country as a whole, and is nearly static in Agincourt because of negative migration flows balancing the small excess from natural increase.</p></sec></div></front></TEI><pmc article-type="research-article"><pmc-comment>The publisher of this article does not allow downloading of the full text in XML form.</pmc-comment>
<pmc-dir>properties manuscript</pmc-dir>
<front><journal-meta><journal-id journal-id-type="nlm-journal-id">100883504</journal-id><journal-id journal-id-type="pubmed-jr-id">22249</journal-id><journal-id journal-id-type="nlm-ta">Scand J Public Health Suppl</journal-id><journal-id journal-id-type="iso-abbrev">Scand J Public Health Suppl</journal-id><journal-title-group><journal-title>Scandinavian journal of public health. Supplement</journal-title></journal-title-group><issn pub-type="ppub">1403-4956</issn></journal-meta><article-meta><article-id pub-id-type="pmid">17676506</article-id><article-id pub-id-type="pmc">2830107</article-id><article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.1080/14034950701355650</article-id><article-id pub-id-type="manuscript">UKMS28807</article-id><article-categories><subj-group subj-group-type="heading"><subject>Article</subject></subj-group></article-categories><title-group><article-title>Fertility trends and net reproduction in Agincourt, rural South Africa, 1992-2004<xref ref-type="fn" rid="FN2">1</xref></article-title></title-group><contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>GARENNE</surname><given-names>MICHEL L.</given-names></name><xref ref-type="aff" rid="A1">1</xref><xref ref-type="aff" rid="A2">2</xref></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>TOLLMAN</surname><given-names>STEPHEN M.</given-names></name><xref ref-type="aff" rid="A2">2</xref></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>COLLINSON</surname><given-names>MARK A.</given-names></name><xref ref-type="aff" rid="A2">2</xref></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>KAHN</surname><given-names>KATHLEEN</given-names></name><xref ref-type="aff" rid="A2">2</xref></contrib></contrib-group><aff id="A1"><label>1</label>IRD and Institut Pasteur, Paris, France</aff><aff id="A2"><label>2</label>MRC/Wits Rural Public Health and Health Transitions Research Unit (Agincourt), School of Public Health, University of the Witwatersrand, South Africa</aff><author-notes><corresp id="CR1">Correspondence: M. L. Garenne, Institut Pasteur, Paris, France. <email>mgarenne@pasteur.fr</email></corresp></author-notes><pub-date pub-type="nihms-submitted"><day>17</day><month>2</month><year>2010</year></pub-date><pub-date pub-type="ppub"><month>8</month><year>2007</year></pub-date><pub-date pub-type="pmc-release"><day>01</day><month>3</month><year>2010</year></pub-date><volume>69</volume><fpage>68</fpage><lpage>76</lpage><permissions><copyright-statement>© 2007 Taylor & Francis</copyright-statement><copyright-year>2007</copyright-year></permissions><abstract><sec id="S1"><title>Aims:</title><p id="P1">To analyse trends in fertility rates and net reproduction rates in Agincourt, a rural area of South Africa located in the former homeland of Gazankulu near the Mozambican border. Trends are analysed in the context of widely available modern contraceptive methods and increasing HIV/AIDS.</p></sec><sec id="S2"><title>Methods:</title><p id="P2">A health and demographic surveillance system has been in place since 1992, covering a population of approximately 70,000 persons, with an annual census update and comprehensive recording of births and deaths. It was complemented by a retrospective study of fertility at baseline. Retrospective and prospective data were used to calculate trends in fertility, survival, and net reproduction. When possible, they were compared with data from other censuses and surveys in the same ethnic group.</p></sec><sec id="S3"><title>Results:</title><p id="P3">The fertility transition has almost ended over a course of 25 years in Agincourt. The total fertility rate (TFR) averaged 6.0 in 1979 and 2.3 in 2004. Fertility declined in proportionate fashion in all age groups including adolescents in the recent period. The net reproduction rate (NRR) declined from 1.8 to 1.0 during the prospective period (1992–2004). At current rates of change in fertility and mortality, the NRR can be expected to reach 0.63 by the year 2010.</p></sec><sec id="S4"><title>Conclusions:</title><p id="P4">The situation of a below-replacement fertility level is new for rural Africa, and is likely to have many demographic, economic and social implications. The population could decline in the country as a whole, and is nearly static in Agincourt because of negative migration flows balancing the small excess from natural increase.</p></sec></abstract><kwd-group><kwd>Agincourt</kwd><kwd>demographic transition</kwd><kwd>fertility rate</kwd><kwd>fertility trends</kwd><kwd>HIV/AIDS</kwd><kwd>net reproduction rate</kwd><kwd>replacement fertility</kwd><kwd>South Africa</kwd></kwd-group><funding-group><award-group><funding-source country="United Kingdom">Wellcome Trust : </funding-source><award-id>069683 || WT</award-id></award-group></funding-group></article-meta></front></pmc></record>Pour manipuler ce document sous Unix (Dilib)
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