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<record><TEI><teiHeader><fileDesc><titleStmt><title xml:lang="en">Meeting the Sustainable Development Goals leads to lower world population growth</title><author><name sortKey="Abel, Guy J" sort="Abel, Guy J" uniqKey="Abel G" first="Guy J." last="Abel">Guy J. Abel</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="aff1">Asian Demographic Research Institute,<institution>Shanghai University</institution>, Baoshan, 200444 Shanghai,<country>China</country>;</nlm:aff></affiliation><affiliation><nlm:aff id="aff2">Wittgenstein Centre for Demography and Global Human Capital (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Vienna Institute of Demography/Austrian Academy of Science, Vienna University of Economics and Business), 2361 Laxenburg,<country>Austria</country></nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Barakat, Bilal" sort="Barakat, Bilal" uniqKey="Barakat B" first="Bilal" last="Barakat">Bilal Barakat</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="aff2">Wittgenstein Centre for Demography and Global Human Capital (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Vienna Institute of Demography/Austrian Academy of Science, Vienna University of Economics and Business), 2361 Laxenburg,<country>Austria</country></nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Kc, Samir" sort="Kc, Samir" uniqKey="Kc S" first="Samir" last="Kc">Samir Kc</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="aff1">Asian Demographic Research Institute,<institution>Shanghai University</institution>, Baoshan, 200444 Shanghai,<country>China</country>;</nlm:aff></affiliation><affiliation><nlm:aff id="aff2">Wittgenstein Centre for Demography and Global Human Capital (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Vienna Institute of Demography/Austrian Academy of Science, Vienna University of Economics and Business), 2361 Laxenburg,<country>Austria</country></nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Lutz, Wolfgang" sort="Lutz, Wolfgang" uniqKey="Lutz W" first="Wolfgang" last="Lutz">Wolfgang Lutz</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="aff2">Wittgenstein Centre for Demography and Global Human Capital (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Vienna Institute of Demography/Austrian Academy of Science, Vienna University of Economics and Business), 2361 Laxenburg,<country>Austria</country></nlm:aff></affiliation></author></titleStmt><publicationStmt><idno type="wicri:source">PMC</idno><idno type="pmid">27911797</idno><idno type="pmc">5167193</idno><idno type="url">http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5167193</idno><idno type="RBID">PMC:5167193</idno><idno type="doi">10.1073/pnas.1611386113</idno><date when="2016">2016</date><idno type="wicri:Area/Pmc/Corpus">001768</idno><idno type="wicri:explorRef" wicri:stream="Pmc" wicri:step="Corpus" wicri:corpus="PMC">001768</idno></publicationStmt><sourceDesc><biblStruct><analytic><title xml:lang="en" level="a" type="main">Meeting the Sustainable Development Goals leads to lower world population growth</title><author><name sortKey="Abel, Guy J" sort="Abel, Guy J" uniqKey="Abel G" first="Guy J." last="Abel">Guy J. Abel</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="aff1">Asian Demographic Research Institute,<institution>Shanghai University</institution>, Baoshan, 200444 Shanghai,<country>China</country>;</nlm:aff></affiliation><affiliation><nlm:aff id="aff2">Wittgenstein Centre for Demography and Global Human Capital (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Vienna Institute of Demography/Austrian Academy of Science, Vienna University of Economics and Business), 2361 Laxenburg,<country>Austria</country></nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Barakat, Bilal" sort="Barakat, Bilal" uniqKey="Barakat B" first="Bilal" last="Barakat">Bilal Barakat</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="aff2">Wittgenstein Centre for Demography and Global Human Capital (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Vienna Institute of Demography/Austrian Academy of Science, Vienna University of Economics and Business), 2361 Laxenburg,<country>Austria</country></nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Kc, Samir" sort="Kc, Samir" uniqKey="Kc S" first="Samir" last="Kc">Samir Kc</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="aff1">Asian Demographic Research Institute,<institution>Shanghai University</institution>, Baoshan, 200444 Shanghai,<country>China</country>;</nlm:aff></affiliation><affiliation><nlm:aff id="aff2">Wittgenstein Centre for Demography and Global Human Capital (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Vienna Institute of Demography/Austrian Academy of Science, Vienna University of Economics and Business), 2361 Laxenburg,<country>Austria</country></nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Lutz, Wolfgang" sort="Lutz, Wolfgang" uniqKey="Lutz W" first="Wolfgang" last="Lutz">Wolfgang Lutz</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="aff2">Wittgenstein Centre for Demography and Global Human Capital (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Vienna Institute of Demography/Austrian Academy of Science, Vienna University of Economics and Business), 2361 Laxenburg,<country>Austria</country></nlm:aff></affiliation></author></analytic><series><title level="j">Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America</title><idno type="ISSN">0027-8424</idno><idno type="eISSN">1091-6490</idno><imprint><date when="2016">2016</date></imprint></series></biblStruct></sourceDesc></fileDesc><profileDesc><textClass></textClass></profileDesc></teiHeader><front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en"><title>Significance</title><p>The future of world population growth matters for future human well-being and interactions with the natural environment. We show the extent to which world population growth could be reduced by fully implementing the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) whose health and education targets have direct and indirect consequences on future mortality and fertility trends. Although this assessment is consistent with the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways scenarios used in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change context, it is inconsistent with the prediction range of the United Nations projections for which we present sensitivity analyses and suggests that their range is likely too narrow. Given our assumptions, the SDGs have a sizable effect on global population growth, providing an additional rationale for vigorously pursuing their implementation.</p></div></front></TEI><pmc article-type="research-article"><pmc-comment>The publisher of this article does not allow downloading of the full text in XML form.</pmc-comment>
<front><journal-meta><journal-id journal-id-type="nlm-ta">Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A</journal-id><journal-id journal-id-type="iso-abbrev">Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A</journal-id><journal-id journal-id-type="hwp">pnas</journal-id><journal-id journal-id-type="pmc">pnas</journal-id><journal-id journal-id-type="publisher-id">PNAS</journal-id><journal-title-group><journal-title>Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America</journal-title></journal-title-group><issn pub-type="ppub">0027-8424</issn><issn pub-type="epub">1091-6490</issn><publisher><publisher-name>National Academy of Sciences</publisher-name></publisher></journal-meta><article-meta><article-id pub-id-type="pmid">27911797</article-id><article-id pub-id-type="pmc">5167193</article-id><article-id pub-id-type="publisher-id">201611386</article-id><article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.1073/pnas.1611386113</article-id><article-categories><subj-group subj-group-type="hwp-journal-coll"><subject>9</subject></subj-group><subj-group subj-group-type="heading"><subject>Social Sciences</subject><subj-group><subject>Sustainability Science</subject></subj-group></subj-group></article-categories><title-group><article-title>Meeting the Sustainable Development Goals leads to lower world population growth</article-title><alt-title alt-title-type="short">Lower world population growth if the SDG are met</alt-title></title-group><contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Abel</surname><given-names>Guy J.</given-names></name><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1"><sup>a</sup></xref><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2"><sup>b</sup></xref></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Barakat</surname><given-names>Bilal</given-names></name><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2"><sup>b</sup></xref></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>KC</surname><given-names>Samir</given-names></name><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1"><sup>a</sup></xref><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2"><sup>b</sup></xref><xref ref-type="corresp" rid="cor1"><sup>1</sup></xref></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Lutz</surname><given-names>Wolfgang</given-names></name><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2"><sup>b</sup></xref><xref ref-type="corresp" rid="cor1"><sup>1</sup></xref></contrib><aff id="aff1"><sup>a</sup>Asian Demographic Research Institute,<institution>Shanghai University</institution>, Baoshan, 200444 Shanghai,<country>China</country>;</aff><aff id="aff2"><sup>b</sup>Wittgenstein Centre for Demography and Global Human Capital (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Vienna Institute of Demography/Austrian Academy of Science, Vienna University of Economics and Business), 2361 Laxenburg,<country>Austria</country></aff></contrib-group><author-notes><corresp id="cor1"><sup>1</sup>To whom correspondence may be addressed. Email: <email>kcsamir@gmail.com</email> or <email>lutz@iiasa.ac.at</email>.</corresp><fn fn-type="edited-by"><p>Contributed by Wolfgang Lutz, October 25, 2016 (sent for review July 12, 2016; reviewed by Joel E. Cohen and Hans-Peter Kohler)</p></fn><fn fn-type="con"><p>Author contributions: G.J.A., B.B., S.K., and W.L. designed research, performed research, contributed new reagents/analytic tools, analyzed data, and wrote the paper.</p></fn><fn fn-type="con"><p>Reviewers: J.E.C., The Rockefeller University and Columbia University; and H.-P.K., University of Pennsylvania.</p></fn></author-notes><pub-date pub-type="ppub"><day>13</day><month>12</month><year>2016</year></pub-date><pub-date pub-type="epub"><day>29</day><month>11</month><year>2016</year></pub-date><pub-date pub-type="pmc-release"><day>29</day><month>11</month><year>2016</year></pub-date><pmc-comment> PMC Release delay is 0 months and 0 days and was based on the
<volume>113</volume><issue>50</issue><fpage>14294</fpage><lpage>14299</lpage><permissions><license license-type="open-access"><license-p>Freely available online through the PNAS open access option.</license-p></license></permissions><self-uri xlink:title="pdf" xlink:href="pnas.201611386.pdf"></self-uri><abstract abstract-type="executive-summary"><title>Significance</title><p>The future of world population growth matters for future human well-being and interactions with the natural environment. We show the extent to which world population growth could be reduced by fully implementing the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) whose health and education targets have direct and indirect consequences on future mortality and fertility trends. Although this assessment is consistent with the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways scenarios used in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change context, it is inconsistent with the prediction range of the United Nations projections for which we present sensitivity analyses and suggests that their range is likely too narrow. Given our assumptions, the SDGs have a sizable effect on global population growth, providing an additional rationale for vigorously pursuing their implementation.</p></abstract><abstract><p>Here we show the extent to which the expected world population growth could be lowered by successfully implementing the recently agreed-upon Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). The SDGs include specific quantitative targets on mortality, reproductive health, and education for all girls by 2030, measures that will directly and indirectly affect future demographic trends. Based on a multidimensional model of population dynamics that stratifies national populations by age, sex, and level of education with educational fertility and mortality differentials, we translate these goals into SDG population scenarios, resulting in population sizes between 8.2 and 8.7 billion in 2100. Because these results lie outside the 95% prediction range given by the 2015 United Nations probabilistic population projections, we complement the study with sensitivity analyses of these projections that suggest that those prediction intervals are too narrow because of uncertainty in baseline data, conservative assumptions on correlations, and the possibility of new policies influencing these trends. Although the analysis presented here rests on several assumptions about the implementation of the SDGs and the persistence of educational, fertility, and mortality differentials, it quantitatively illustrates the view that demography is not destiny and that policies can make a decisive difference. In particular, advances in female education and reproductive health can contribute greatly to reducing world population growth.</p></abstract><kwd-group><kwd>world population</kwd><kwd>scenarios</kwd><kwd>Sustainable Development Goals</kwd><kwd>female education</kwd><kwd>reproductive health</kwd></kwd-group><funding-group><award-group id="gs1"><funding-source id="sp1">EC | European Research Council (ERC)<named-content content-type="funder-id">501100000781</named-content></funding-source><award-id rid="sp1">ERC-2008-AdG 230195-FutureSoc</award-id></award-group><award-group id="gs2"><funding-source id="sp2">Austrian Science Fund (FWF)<named-content content-type="funder-id">501100002428</named-content></funding-source><award-id rid="sp2">Z171-G11</award-id></award-group></funding-group><counts><page-count count="6"></page-count></counts></article-meta></front></pmc></record>Pour manipuler ce document sous Unix (Dilib)
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