Projecting the demographic impact of AIDS and the number of people in need of treatment: updates to the Spectrum projection package
Identifieur interne : 003171 ( Istex/Corpus ); précédent : 003170; suivant : 003172Projecting the demographic impact of AIDS and the number of people in need of treatment: updates to the Spectrum projection package
Auteurs : J. Stover ; N. Walker ; N C Grassly ; M. MarstonSource :
- Sexually Transmitted Infections [ 1368-4973 ] ; 2006-06.
English descriptors
- KwdEn :
- AIDS, Additional years, Adult prevalence, Aids death, Aids deaths, Aids epidemic, Aids estimates, Aids orphans, Antiretroviral therapy, Breastfeeding, Breastfeeding patterns, Burkina faso, Cell counts, Child survival, Child transmission, Confidence limits, Cotrimoxazole, Defic syndr, EPP, Estimation and Projection Package, Exclusive breastfeeding, FHI, Family Health International, Family health, Futures group, General population, Generalised, Generalised epidemics, Generalized epidemics, Global estimates, Grassly, Groups year olds, HIV, Haart none, High risk populations, Higher risk, Late postnatal transmission, Latest research findings, Male prevalence, Median survival, National programmes, National survey, National surveys, Nations programme, Nevirapine, Other cells, PMTCT, prevention of mother to child transmission, PSI, Population Services International, Pmtct, Pmtct programme, Population services, Pregnant women, Prevalence, Prevalence projections, Prevalence trends, Programme, Projection package, Public health approach, Randomized trial, Recent updates, Risk group, Saturation effects, Sexual behaviour, Short course, Single dose nevirapine, Slow progressors, Spectrum projection package, Stover, Survey year, Transmission rate, Treatment effects, Treatment guidelines, Triple therapy, UNAIDS, Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS, Unaids, Unaids reference group, Update, World health organization, estimates, modelling.
- Teeft :
- Additional years, Adult prevalence, Aids death, Aids deaths, Aids epidemic, Aids estimates, Aids orphans, Antiretroviral therapy, Breastfeeding, Breastfeeding patterns, Burkina faso, Cell counts, Child survival, Child transmission, Confidence limits, Cotrimoxazole, Defic syndr, Exclusive breastfeeding, Family health, Futures group, General population, Generalised, Generalised epidemics, Generalized epidemics, Global estimates, Grassly, Groups year olds, Haart none, High risk populations, Higher risk, Late postnatal transmission, Latest research findings, Male prevalence, Median survival, National programmes, National survey, National surveys, Nations programme, Nevirapine, Other cells, Pmtct, Pmtct programme, Population services, Pregnant women, Prevalence, Prevalence projections, Prevalence trends, Programme, Projection package, Public health approach, Randomized trial, Recent updates, Risk group, Saturation effects, Sexual behaviour, Short course, Single dose nevirapine, Slow progressors, Spectrum projection package, Stover, Survey year, Transmission rate, Treatment effects, Treatment guidelines, Triple therapy, Unaids, Unaids reference group, Update, World health organization.
Abstract
Background: In the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS) approach to HIV and AIDS estimates, estimates of adult prevalence produced by the Estimation and Projection Package (EPP) or the Workbook are transferred to Spectrum to estimate the consequences of the HIV/AIDS epidemic, including the number of people living with HIV by age and sex, new infections, AIDS deaths, AIDS orphans, treatment needs, and the impact of treatment on survival. Methods: The UNAIDS Reference Group on Estimates, Models and Projections recommends updates to the methodology and assumptions based on the latest research findings and international policy and programme guidelines. The latest update to Spectrum has been used in the 2005 round of global estimates. Results: Several new features have been added to Spectrum in the past two years. New patterns of the age distribution of prevalence over time are based on the latest survey data. A more detailed treatment of mother to child transmission of HIV is now based on information about current breastfeeding practices, treatment options offered to prevent mother to child transmission (PMTCT), infant feeding options, and the percentage or number of pregnant women accessing PMTCT services. A new section on child survival includes the effects of cotrimoxazole and ART on child survival. Projections can now be calibrated with national survey data. A new set of outputs is provided for all adults over the age of 15 in addition to the traditional 15–49 age group. New outputs are now available to show plausibility bounds and regional estimates for key indicators. Conclusions: The latest update to the Spectrum program is intended to incorporate the latest research findings and provide new outputs needed by national and international planners.
Url:
DOI: 10.1136/sti.2006.020172
Links to Exploration step
ISTEX:96FBA19CFFD754F34CD7DD4EB69E257CA1F6026ALe document en format XML
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Stover</name><affiliation><mods:affiliation>Futures Group, Glastonbury, CT, USA</mods:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Walker, N" sort="Walker, N" uniqKey="Walker N" first="N" last="Walker">N. Walker</name><affiliation><mods:affiliation>UNICEF, New York, NY, USA</mods:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Grassly, N C" sort="Grassly, N C" uniqKey="Grassly N" first="N C" last="Grassly">N C Grassly</name><affiliation><mods:affiliation>Imperial College, London, UK</mods:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Marston, M" sort="Marston, M" uniqKey="Marston M" first="M" last="Marston">M. Marston</name><affiliation><mods:affiliation>London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK</mods:affiliation></affiliation></author></analytic><monogr></monogr><series><title level="j">Sexually Transmitted Infections</title><title level="j" type="abbrev">Sex Transm Infect</title><idno type="ISSN">1368-4973</idno><idno type="eISSN">1472-3263</idno><imprint><publisher>BMJ Publishing Group Ltd</publisher><date type="published" when="2006-06">2006-06</date><biblScope unit="volume">82</biblScope><biblScope unit="supplement">suppl 3</biblScope><biblScope unit="page" from="45">iii45</biblScope></imprint><idno type="ISSN">1368-4973</idno></series></biblStruct></sourceDesc><seriesStmt><idno type="ISSN">1368-4973</idno></seriesStmt></fileDesc><profileDesc><textClass><keywords scheme="KwdEn" xml:lang="en"><term>AIDS</term><term>Additional years</term><term>Adult prevalence</term><term>Aids death</term><term>Aids deaths</term><term>Aids epidemic</term><term>Aids estimates</term><term>Aids orphans</term><term>Antiretroviral therapy</term><term>Breastfeeding</term><term>Breastfeeding patterns</term><term>Burkina faso</term><term>Cell counts</term><term>Child survival</term><term>Child transmission</term><term>Confidence limits</term><term>Cotrimoxazole</term><term>Defic syndr</term><term>EPP, Estimation and Projection Package</term><term>Exclusive breastfeeding</term><term>FHI, Family Health International</term><term>Family health</term><term>Futures group</term><term>General population</term><term>Generalised</term><term>Generalised epidemics</term><term>Generalized epidemics</term><term>Global estimates</term><term>Grassly</term><term>Groups year olds</term><term>HIV</term><term>Haart none</term><term>High risk populations</term><term>Higher risk</term><term>Late postnatal transmission</term><term>Latest research findings</term><term>Male prevalence</term><term>Median survival</term><term>National programmes</term><term>National survey</term><term>National surveys</term><term>Nations programme</term><term>Nevirapine</term><term>Other cells</term><term>PMTCT, prevention of mother to child transmission</term><term>PSI, Population Services International</term><term>Pmtct</term><term>Pmtct programme</term><term>Population services</term><term>Pregnant women</term><term>Prevalence</term><term>Prevalence projections</term><term>Prevalence trends</term><term>Programme</term><term>Projection package</term><term>Public health approach</term><term>Randomized trial</term><term>Recent updates</term><term>Risk group</term><term>Saturation effects</term><term>Sexual behaviour</term><term>Short course</term><term>Single dose nevirapine</term><term>Slow progressors</term><term>Spectrum projection package</term><term>Stover</term><term>Survey year</term><term>Transmission rate</term><term>Treatment effects</term><term>Treatment guidelines</term><term>Triple therapy</term><term>UNAIDS, Joint United Nations Programme on 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none</term><term>High risk populations</term><term>Higher risk</term><term>Late postnatal transmission</term><term>Latest research findings</term><term>Male prevalence</term><term>Median survival</term><term>National programmes</term><term>National survey</term><term>National surveys</term><term>Nations programme</term><term>Nevirapine</term><term>Other cells</term><term>Pmtct</term><term>Pmtct programme</term><term>Population services</term><term>Pregnant women</term><term>Prevalence</term><term>Prevalence projections</term><term>Prevalence trends</term><term>Programme</term><term>Projection package</term><term>Public health approach</term><term>Randomized trial</term><term>Recent updates</term><term>Risk group</term><term>Saturation effects</term><term>Sexual behaviour</term><term>Short course</term><term>Single dose nevirapine</term><term>Slow progressors</term><term>Spectrum projection package</term><term>Stover</term><term>Survey year</term><term>Transmission rate</term><term>Treatment effects</term><term>Treatment guidelines</term><term>Triple therapy</term><term>Unaids</term><term>Unaids reference group</term><term>Update</term><term>World health organization</term></keywords></textClass><langUsage><language ident="en">en</language></langUsage></profileDesc></teiHeader><front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en">Background: In the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS) approach to HIV and AIDS estimates, estimates of adult prevalence produced by the Estimation and Projection Package (EPP) or the Workbook are transferred to Spectrum to estimate the consequences of the HIV/AIDS epidemic, including the number of people living with HIV by age and sex, new infections, AIDS deaths, AIDS orphans, treatment needs, and the impact of treatment on survival. Methods: The UNAIDS Reference Group on Estimates, Models and Projections recommends updates to the methodology and assumptions based on the latest research findings and international policy and programme guidelines. The latest update to Spectrum has been used in the 2005 round of global estimates. Results: Several new features have been added to Spectrum in the past two years. New patterns of the age distribution of prevalence over time are based on the latest survey data. A more detailed treatment of mother to child transmission of HIV is now based on information about current breastfeeding practices, treatment options offered to prevent mother to child transmission (PMTCT), infant feeding options, and the percentage or number of pregnant women accessing PMTCT services. A new section on child survival includes the effects of cotrimoxazole and ART on child survival. Projections can now be calibrated with national survey data. A new set of outputs is provided for all adults over the age of 15 in addition to the traditional 15–49 age group. New outputs are now available to show plausibility bounds and regional estimates for key indicators. Conclusions: The latest update to the Spectrum program is intended to incorporate the latest research findings and provide new outputs needed by national and international planners.</div></front></TEI><istex><corpusName>bmj</corpusName><keywords><teeft><json:string>breastfeeding</json:string><json:string>programme</json:string><json:string>unaids</json:string><json:string>generalised</json:string><json:string>cotrimoxazole</json:string><json:string>pmtct</json:string><json:string>nevirapine</json:string><json:string>stover</json:string><json:string>generalised epidemics</json:string><json:string>grassly</json:string><json:string>child transmission</json:string><json:string>unaids reference group</json:string><json:string>single dose nevirapine</json:string><json:string>prevalence</json:string><json:string>aids deaths</json:string><json:string>pregnant women</json:string><json:string>general population</json:string><json:string>exclusive 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Package</value></json:item><json:item><lang><json:string>eng</json:string></lang><value>FHI, Family Health International</value></json:item><json:item><lang><json:string>eng</json:string></lang><value>PMTCT, prevention of mother to child transmission</value></json:item><json:item><lang><json:string>eng</json:string></lang><value>PSI, Population Services International</value></json:item><json:item><lang><json:string>eng</json:string></lang><value>UNAIDS, Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS</value></json:item><json:item><lang><json:string>eng</json:string></lang><value>HIV</value></json:item><json:item><lang><json:string>eng</json:string></lang><value>modelling</value></json:item><json:item><lang><json:string>eng</json:string></lang><value>AIDS</value></json:item><json:item><lang><json:string>eng</json:string></lang><value>estimates</value></json:item></subject><language><json:string>eng</json:string></language><originalGenre><json:string>research-article</json:string></originalGenre><abstract>Background: In the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS) approach to HIV and AIDS estimates, estimates of adult prevalence produced by the Estimation and Projection Package (EPP) or the Workbook are transferred to Spectrum to estimate the consequences of the HIV/AIDS epidemic, including the number of people living with HIV by age and sex, new infections, AIDS deaths, AIDS orphans, treatment needs, and the impact of treatment on survival. Methods: The UNAIDS Reference Group on Estimates, Models and Projections recommends updates to the methodology and assumptions based on the latest research findings and international policy and programme guidelines. The latest update to Spectrum has been used in the 2005 round of global estimates. Results: Several new features have been added to Spectrum in the past two years. New patterns of the age distribution of prevalence over time are based on the latest survey data. A more detailed treatment of mother to child transmission of HIV is now based on information about current breastfeeding practices, treatment options offered to prevent mother to child transmission (PMTCT), infant feeding options, and the percentage or number of pregnant women accessing PMTCT services. A new section on child survival includes the effects of cotrimoxazole and ART on child survival. Projections can now be calibrated with national survey data. A new set of outputs is provided for all adults over the age of 15 in addition to the traditional 15–49 age group. New outputs are now available to show plausibility bounds and regional estimates for key indicators. Conclusions: The latest update to the Spectrum program is intended to incorporate the latest research findings and provide new outputs needed by national and international planners.</abstract><qualityIndicators><score>7.152</score><pdfVersion>1.2</pdfVersion><pdfPageSize>612 x 792 pts (letter)</pdfPageSize><refBibsNative>false</refBibsNative><keywordCount>9</keywordCount><abstractCharCount>1793</abstractCharCount><pdfWordCount>4152</pdfWordCount><pdfCharCount>26096</pdfCharCount><pdfPageCount>6</pdfPageCount><abstractWordCount>278</abstractWordCount></qualityIndicators><title>Projecting the demographic impact of AIDS and the number of people in need of treatment: updates to the Spectrum projection package</title><pmid><json:string>16735293</json:string></pmid><pii><json:string>1472-3263</json:string></pii><genre><json:string>research-article</json:string></genre><host><title>Sexually Transmitted Infections</title><language><json:string>unknown</json:string></language><issn><json:string>1368-4973</json:string></issn><eissn><json:string>1472-3263</json:string></eissn><volume>82</volume><pages><first>iii45</first></pages><genre><json:string>journal</json:string></genre></host><categories><inist><json:string>sciences humaines et sociales</json:string></inist></categories><publicationDate>2006</publicationDate><copyrightDate>2006</copyrightDate><doi><json:string>10.1136/sti.2006.020172</json:string></doi><id>96FBA19CFFD754F34CD7DD4EB69E257CA1F6026A</id><score>1</score><fulltext><json:item><extension>pdf</extension><original>true</original><mimetype>application/pdf</mimetype><uri>https://api.istex.fr/document/96FBA19CFFD754F34CD7DD4EB69E257CA1F6026A/fulltext/pdf</uri></json:item><json:item><extension>zip</extension><original>false</original><mimetype>application/zip</mimetype><uri>https://api.istex.fr/document/96FBA19CFFD754F34CD7DD4EB69E257CA1F6026A/fulltext/zip</uri></json:item><istex:fulltextTEI uri="https://api.istex.fr/document/96FBA19CFFD754F34CD7DD4EB69E257CA1F6026A/fulltext/tei"><teiHeader><fileDesc><titleStmt><title level="a" type="main" xml:lang="en">Projecting the demographic impact of AIDS and the number of people in need of treatment: updates to the Spectrum projection package</title></titleStmt><publicationStmt><authority>ISTEX</authority><publisher scheme="https://publisher-list.data.istex.fr">BMJ Publishing Group Ltd</publisher><availability><licence><p>Copyright 2006 Sexually Transmitted Infections</p></licence><p scheme="https://loaded-corpus.data.istex.fr/ark:/67375/XBH-7M42M2QJ-2">bmj</p></availability><date>2006-05-29</date></publicationStmt><notesStmt><note type="research-article" scheme="https://content-type.data.istex.fr/ark:/67375/XTP-1JC4F85T-7">research-article</note><note type="journal" scheme="https://publication-type.data.istex.fr/ark:/67375/JMC-0GLKJH51-B">journal</note><note>Correspondence to:
MrJ Stover
Futures Group, 80 Glastonbury Boulevard, Glastonbury, CT 06033, USA; JStover@FuturesGroup.com</note></notesStmt><sourceDesc><biblStruct type="inbook"><analytic><title level="a" type="main" xml:lang="en">Projecting the demographic impact of AIDS and the number of people in need of treatment: updates to the Spectrum projection package</title><author xml:id="author-0000"><persName><forename type="first">J</forename><surname>Stover</surname></persName><affiliation>Futures Group, Glastonbury, CT, USA</affiliation></author><author xml:id="author-0001"><persName><forename type="first">N</forename><surname>Walker</surname></persName><affiliation>UNICEF, New York, NY, USA</affiliation></author><author xml:id="author-0002"><persName><forename type="first">N C</forename><surname>Grassly</surname></persName><affiliation>Imperial College, London, UK</affiliation></author><author xml:id="author-0003"><persName><forename type="first">M</forename><surname>Marston</surname></persName><affiliation>London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK</affiliation></author><idno type="istex">96FBA19CFFD754F34CD7DD4EB69E257CA1F6026A</idno><idno type="ark">ark:/67375/NVC-3FMFMG83-H</idno><idno type="DOI">10.1136/sti.2006.020172</idno><idno type="href">sextrans-82-iii45.pdf</idno><idno type="PMID">16735293</idno><idno type="local">0820045</idno></analytic><monogr><title level="j">Sexually Transmitted Infections</title><title level="j" type="abbrev">Sex Transm Infect</title><idno type="pISSN">1368-4973</idno><idno type="eISSN">1472-3263</idno><idno type="PublisherID-hwp">sextrans</idno><idno type="PublisherID-nlm-ta">Sex Transm Infect</idno><imprint><publisher>BMJ Publishing Group Ltd</publisher><date type="published" when="2006-06"></date><biblScope unit="volume">82</biblScope><biblScope unit="supplement">suppl 3</biblScope><biblScope unit="page" from="45">iii45</biblScope></imprint></monogr></biblStruct></sourceDesc></fileDesc><profileDesc><creation><date>2006-05-29</date></creation><langUsage><language ident="en">en</language></langUsage><abstract xml:lang="en"><p>Background: In the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS) approach to HIV and AIDS estimates, estimates of adult prevalence produced by the Estimation and Projection Package (EPP) or the Workbook are transferred to Spectrum to estimate the consequences of the HIV/AIDS epidemic, including the number of people living with HIV by age and sex, new infections, AIDS deaths, AIDS orphans, treatment needs, and the impact of treatment on survival. Methods: The UNAIDS Reference Group on Estimates, Models and Projections recommends updates to the methodology and assumptions based on the latest research findings and international policy and programme guidelines. The latest update to Spectrum has been used in the 2005 round of global estimates. Results: Several new features have been added to Spectrum in the past two years. New patterns of the age distribution of prevalence over time are based on the latest survey data. A more detailed treatment of mother to child transmission of HIV is now based on information about current breastfeeding practices, treatment options offered to prevent mother to child transmission (PMTCT), infant feeding options, and the percentage or number of pregnant women accessing PMTCT services. A new section on child survival includes the effects of cotrimoxazole and ART on child survival. Projections can now be calibrated with national survey data. A new set of outputs is provided for all adults over the age of 15 in addition to the traditional 15–49 age group. New outputs are now available to show plausibility bounds and regional estimates for key indicators. Conclusions: The latest update to the Spectrum program is intended to incorporate the latest research findings and provide new outputs needed by national and international planners.</p></abstract><textClass xml:lang="en"><keywords scheme="keyword"><list><head>ABR</head><item><term>EPP, Estimation and Projection Package</term></item><item><term>FHI, Family Health International</term></item><item><term>PMTCT, prevention of mother to child transmission</term></item><item><term>PSI, Population Services International</term></item><item><term>UNAIDS, Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS</term></item></list></keywords></textClass><textClass xml:lang="en"><keywords scheme="keyword"><list><head>KWD</head><item><term>HIV</term></item><item><term>modelling</term></item><item><term>AIDS</term></item><item><term>estimates</term></item></list></keywords></textClass></profileDesc><revisionDesc><change when="2006-05-29">Created</change><change when="2006-06">Published</change></revisionDesc></teiHeader></istex:fulltextTEI><json:item><extension>txt</extension><original>false</original><mimetype>text/plain</mimetype><uri>https://api.istex.fr/document/96FBA19CFFD754F34CD7DD4EB69E257CA1F6026A/fulltext/txt</uri></json:item></fulltext><metadata><istex:metadataXml wicri:clean="corpus bmj" wicri:toSee="no header"><istex:xmlDeclaration>version="1.0" encoding="UTF-8" standalone="no"</istex:xmlDeclaration><istex:docType PUBLIC="-//NLM//DTD Journal Archiving and Interchange DTD v2.3 20070202//EN" URI="archivearticle.dtd" name="istex:docType"></istex:docType><istex:document><article xml:lang="en" article-type="research-article"><front><journal-meta><journal-id journal-id-type="hwp">sextrans</journal-id><journal-id journal-id-type="nlm-ta">Sex Transm Infect</journal-id><journal-title>Sexually Transmitted Infections</journal-title><abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="publisher">Sex Transm Infect</abbrev-journal-title><issn pub-type="ppub">1368-4973</issn><issn pub-type="epub">1472-3263</issn><publisher><publisher-name>BMJ Publishing Group Ltd</publisher-name></publisher></journal-meta><article-meta><article-id pub-id-type="other">0820045</article-id><article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.1136/sti.2006.020172</article-id><article-id pub-id-type="pii">1472-3263</article-id><article-id pub-id-type="other">sextrans;82/suppl_3/iii45</article-id><article-id pub-id-type="pmid">16735293</article-id><article-id pub-id-type="other">iii45</article-id><article-id pub-id-type="other">sti.2006.020172</article-id><title-group><article-title>Projecting the demographic impact of AIDS and the number of people in need of treatment: updates to the Spectrum projection package</article-title></title-group><contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Stover</surname><given-names>J</given-names></name><xref rid="AFF1">1</xref></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Walker</surname><given-names>N</given-names></name><xref rid="AFF2">2</xref></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Grassly</surname><given-names>N C</given-names></name><xref rid="AFF3">3</xref></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Marston</surname><given-names>M</given-names></name><xref rid="AFF4">4</xref></contrib><aff id="AFF1"><label>1</label>Futures Group, Glastonbury, CT, USA</aff><aff id="AFF2"><label>2</label>UNICEF, New York, NY, USA</aff><aff id="AFF3"><label>3</label>Imperial College, London, UK</aff><aff id="AFF4"><label>4</label>London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK</aff></contrib-group><author-notes><corresp>Correspondence to:
MrJ Stover
Futures Group, 80 Glastonbury Boulevard, Glastonbury, CT 06033, USA; <ext-link xlink:href="JStover@FuturesGroup.com" ext-link-type="email" xlink:type="simple">JStover@FuturesGroup.com</ext-link></corresp></author-notes><pub-date pub-type="ppub"><month>6</month><year>2006</year></pub-date><pub-date pub-type="epub"><day>29</day><month>5</month><year>2006</year></pub-date><volume>82</volume><volume-id pub-id-type="other">82</volume-id><volume-id pub-id-type="other">82</volume-id><issue>suppl 3</issue><issue-id pub-id-type="other">sextrans;82/suppl_3</issue-id><issue-id pub-id-type="other" content-type="supplement">suppl_3</issue-id><issue-id pub-id-type="other">82/suppl_3</issue-id><issue-title>Improved methods and tools for HIV/AIDS estimates and projections</issue-title><fpage>iii45</fpage><history><date date-type="accepted"><day>28</day><month>03</month><year>2006</year></date></history><permissions><copyright-statement>Copyright 2006 Sexually Transmitted Infections</copyright-statement><copyright-year>2006</copyright-year></permissions><self-uri content-type="pdf" xlink:role="full-text" xlink:href="sextrans-82-iii45.pdf"></self-uri><abstract xml:lang="en"><p><bold>Background:</bold> In the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS) approach to HIV and AIDS estimates, estimates of adult prevalence produced by the Estimation and Projection Package (EPP) or the Workbook are transferred to Spectrum to estimate the consequences of the HIV/AIDS epidemic, including the number of people living with HIV by age and sex, new infections, AIDS deaths, AIDS orphans, treatment needs, and the impact of treatment on survival.</p><p><bold>Methods:</bold> The UNAIDS Reference Group on Estimates, Models and Projections recommends updates to the methodology and assumptions based on the latest research findings and international policy and programme guidelines. The latest update to Spectrum has been used in the 2005 round of global estimates.</p><p><bold>Results:</bold> Several new features have been added to Spectrum in the past two years. New patterns of the age distribution of prevalence over time are based on the latest survey data. A more detailed treatment of mother to child transmission of HIV is now based on information about current breastfeeding practices, treatment options offered to prevent mother to child transmission (PMTCT), infant feeding options, and the percentage or number of pregnant women accessing PMTCT services. A new section on child survival includes the effects of cotrimoxazole and ART on child survival. Projections can now be calibrated with national survey data. A new set of outputs is provided for all adults over the age of 15 in addition to the traditional 15–49 age group. New outputs are now available to show plausibility bounds and regional estimates for key indicators.</p><p><bold>Conclusions:</bold> The latest update to the Spectrum program is intended to incorporate the latest research findings and provide new outputs needed by national and international planners.</p></abstract><kwd-group kwd-group-type="ABR" xml:lang="en"><kwd>EPP, Estimation and Projection Package</kwd><kwd>FHI, Family Health International</kwd><kwd>PMTCT, prevention of mother to child transmission</kwd><kwd>PSI, Population Services International</kwd><kwd>UNAIDS, Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS</kwd></kwd-group><kwd-group kwd-group-type="KWD" xml:lang="en"><kwd>HIV</kwd><kwd>modelling</kwd><kwd>AIDS</kwd><kwd>estimates</kwd></kwd-group></article-meta></front></article></istex:document></istex:metadataXml><mods version="3.6"><titleInfo lang="en"><title>Projecting the demographic impact of AIDS and the number of people in need of treatment: updates to the Spectrum projection package</title></titleInfo><titleInfo type="alternative" lang="en" contentType="CDATA"><title>Projecting the demographic impact of AIDS and the number of people in need of treatment: updates to the Spectrum projection package</title></titleInfo><name type="personal"><namePart type="given">J</namePart><namePart type="family">Stover</namePart><affiliation>Futures Group, Glastonbury, CT, USA</affiliation><role><roleTerm type="text">author</roleTerm></role></name><name type="personal"><namePart type="given">N</namePart><namePart type="family">Walker</namePart><affiliation>UNICEF, New York, NY, USA</affiliation><role><roleTerm type="text">author</roleTerm></role></name><name type="personal"><namePart type="given">N C</namePart><namePart type="family">Grassly</namePart><affiliation>Imperial College, London, UK</affiliation><role><roleTerm type="text">author</roleTerm></role></name><name type="personal"><namePart type="given">M</namePart><namePart type="family">Marston</namePart><affiliation>London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK</affiliation><role><roleTerm type="text">author</roleTerm></role></name><typeOfResource>text</typeOfResource><genre type="research-article" displayLabel="research-article" authority="ISTEX" authorityURI="https://content-type.data.istex.fr" valueURI="https://content-type.data.istex.fr/ark:/67375/XTP-1JC4F85T-7">research-article</genre><originInfo><publisher>BMJ Publishing Group Ltd</publisher><dateIssued encoding="w3cdtf">2006-06</dateIssued><dateCreated encoding="w3cdtf">2006-05-29</dateCreated><copyrightDate encoding="w3cdtf">2006</copyrightDate></originInfo><language><languageTerm type="code" authority="iso639-2b">eng</languageTerm><languageTerm type="code" authority="rfc3066">en</languageTerm></language><abstract lang="en">Background: In the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS) approach to HIV and AIDS estimates, estimates of adult prevalence produced by the Estimation and Projection Package (EPP) or the Workbook are transferred to Spectrum to estimate the consequences of the HIV/AIDS epidemic, including the number of people living with HIV by age and sex, new infections, AIDS deaths, AIDS orphans, treatment needs, and the impact of treatment on survival. Methods: The UNAIDS Reference Group on Estimates, Models and Projections recommends updates to the methodology and assumptions based on the latest research findings and international policy and programme guidelines. The latest update to Spectrum has been used in the 2005 round of global estimates. Results: Several new features have been added to Spectrum in the past two years. New patterns of the age distribution of prevalence over time are based on the latest survey data. A more detailed treatment of mother to child transmission of HIV is now based on information about current breastfeeding practices, treatment options offered to prevent mother to child transmission (PMTCT), infant feeding options, and the percentage or number of pregnant women accessing PMTCT services. A new section on child survival includes the effects of cotrimoxazole and ART on child survival. Projections can now be calibrated with national survey data. A new set of outputs is provided for all adults over the age of 15 in addition to the traditional 15–49 age group. New outputs are now available to show plausibility bounds and regional estimates for key indicators. Conclusions: The latest update to the Spectrum program is intended to incorporate the latest research findings and provide new outputs needed by national and international planners.</abstract><note type="author-notes">Correspondence to:
MrJ Stover
Futures Group, 80 Glastonbury Boulevard, Glastonbury, CT 06033, USA; JStover@FuturesGroup.com</note><subject lang="en"><genre>ABR</genre><topic>EPP, Estimation and Projection Package</topic><topic>FHI, Family Health International</topic><topic>PMTCT, prevention of mother to child transmission</topic><topic>PSI, Population Services International</topic><topic>UNAIDS, Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS</topic></subject><subject lang="en"><genre>KWD</genre><topic>HIV</topic><topic>modelling</topic><topic>AIDS</topic><topic>estimates</topic></subject><relatedItem type="host"><titleInfo><title>Sexually Transmitted Infections</title></titleInfo><titleInfo type="abbreviated"><title>Sex Transm Infect</title></titleInfo><genre type="journal" authority="ISTEX" authorityURI="https://publication-type.data.istex.fr" valueURI="https://publication-type.data.istex.fr/ark:/67375/JMC-0GLKJH51-B">journal</genre><identifier type="ISSN">1368-4973</identifier><identifier type="eISSN">1472-3263</identifier><identifier type="PublisherID-hwp">sextrans</identifier><identifier type="PublisherID-nlm-ta">Sex Transm Infect</identifier><part><date>2006</date><detail type="title"><title>Improved methods and tools for HIV/AIDS estimates and projections</title></detail><detail type="volume"><caption>vol.</caption><number>82</number></detail><detail type="supplement"><number>suppl 3</number></detail><extent unit="pages"><start>iii45</start></extent></part></relatedItem><identifier type="istex">96FBA19CFFD754F34CD7DD4EB69E257CA1F6026A</identifier><identifier type="ark">ark:/67375/NVC-3FMFMG83-H</identifier><identifier type="DOI">10.1136/sti.2006.020172</identifier><identifier type="href">sextrans-82-iii45.pdf</identifier><identifier type="PMID">16735293</identifier><identifier type="local">0820045</identifier><accessCondition type="use and reproduction" contentType="copyright">Copyright 2006 Sexually Transmitted Infections</accessCondition><recordInfo><recordContentSource authority="ISTEX" authorityURI="https://loaded-corpus.data.istex.fr" valueURI="https://loaded-corpus.data.istex.fr/ark:/67375/XBH-7M42M2QJ-2">bmj</recordContentSource><recordOrigin>Copyright 2006 Sexually Transmitted Infections</recordOrigin></recordInfo></mods><json:item><extension>json</extension><original>false</original><mimetype>application/json</mimetype><uri>https://api.istex.fr/document/96FBA19CFFD754F34CD7DD4EB69E257CA1F6026A/metadata/json</uri></json:item></metadata><annexes><json:item><extension>jpeg</extension><original>true</original><mimetype>image/jpeg</mimetype><uri>https://api.istex.fr/document/96FBA19CFFD754F34CD7DD4EB69E257CA1F6026A/annexes/jpeg</uri></json:item></annexes><serie></serie></istex></record>Pour manipuler ce document sous Unix (Dilib)
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